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Recently GW's stocks have plummeted. Even more curious is the time it happened, since Christmas is soon coming to us.
Could this be caused by several issues? Like the fanfilm hunt?

Feel free to discuss.

Why would investors care about the fanfilms

 lord_blackfang wrote:
Why would investors care about the fanfilms

Could be seen as free promotion.

Don't forget GW was never going to have continual stock price rises. It's not a sustainable system for them to market like that. If anything their stocks were insanely inflated way above normal for the last year and a half as a result of vastly increased sales potential

This dip could just reflect the "fast rise" investors moving to other companies and selling out as GW's stock started to slow in rising; which in turn prompts the stock value to drop in general even though the company itself is doing really well.

Profit taking after bubble blowing. Not much room to grow. 3D printing and they ruined the universe. Yeah, I recommended the stock to a Brit investor friend in 2016. Now, I would advise also selling.

It's an Arch video, who cares?

 jeff white wrote:
3D printing and they ruined the universe..

3D is both new and amazing to use for unique models and cheaper than some official resin kits.

 Kanluwen wrote:
It's an Arch video, who cares?

Oh ew, it is. Nothing of worth to see here then

I think there is enough worth in his video's and analysis about GW. Not all Warhammer Youtubers talk about those specific items since financial is not their main subject.

And right now the stocks fell in price again.

Meh, make a thread when it closer to -50%
Then i'll take out the fine champagne

But its almost the exact same value it was a year ago!
Shock! Horror! Gasp!

Seems like market, whoever he is, adjusting for the fact that the miniature consumer group is only so large, which GW stated themselves in their annual report I think?
Anyway, it's stock prices, they go up and down based on the phases of the moon and if elong muskrat tweeted something funni that day.

Yeah, everyone knows it is actually a good thing when stocks fall. Duh.


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Voss wrote:
But its almost the exact same value it was a year ago!
Shock! Horror! Gasp!

An entire year of value wiped out, I can guarantee you that no company in the world thinks the way you seem to think about this.

Perhaps it might be better to look at the last 5 years instead of the last 1 (which has been an insane period of time for the market in general). GW's stocks are way way way up on what they were 5 years ago even with this dip. Short term investors won't like the dip; long term investors won't really mind.

No company can sustain continual growth of their stock value. Every company will hit limits and level off or even dip and rise a lot over time. Some firms can keep pushing but that's often with massive reinvestment, often in new markets to keep the company always reaching new customers and such. Even then such schemes can backfire as a firm finds itself spread so thin over so many markets at once.

In general terms GW's stock is where it should likely be - high but not constantly rising as their market has a finite point and is a niche; GW has to make big investments to expand that

the high stock price was mainly because it was the only UK company that had something to sell during lockdown
Now with the lockdown gone and GW being hit with raw material shortage as well, no surprise that it goes down again

the one thing is, that those that claimed GW's high value was of the superiority of the company, and that everything that they are doing is right, are now proven wrong and you would need to claim that GW must have done something very wrong

but stock value has nothing to do with what GW is doing right or wrong or how successful their marketing, fomo sales whatever is, stock value is mainly because of short term investors see the possibility to earn something and if they think the maximum is reached, they sell off and prices fall

caladancid wrote:
Yeah, everyone knows it is actually a good thing when stocks fall. Duh.


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Voss wrote:
But its almost the exact same value it was a year ago!
Shock! Horror! Gasp!

An entire year of value wiped out, I can guarantee you that no company in the world thinks the way you seem to think about this.

Except the year of value from last year was abnormal. GW's product demand was far in excess of its normal sales levels and was unsustainable as a good portion of it was existing customers and returning customers not new customers. So at some point that demand would be expected to level off. Heck GW needs it to level off because otherwise they'd have serious issues with mounting supply problems.

If their stock continues to plunge, it will correlate with what I've seen with all used GW stuff up for sale on various FB marketplace forums. The growing inflation is cutting back people's disposable income. I think GW has truly tanked, with nowhere else to go after maxing out upgrading their model lines to the ninth degree. Where's the rest of the Death Krieg line? Held up in China? If they don't get them up up soon, it will be too late to offer for Christmas.

From what I've seen the only major thing being held up overstocked is Dominion and part of that was GW trying to react to Indomitus outselling the year before. Even then the only places selling it steeply discounted are those that need a fast turn over of stock to buy in more stock; for GW its not a loss since they already sold to the 3rd parties and their product has a long shelf life. Dominion as a set has at least a 3 or so year lifespan for the rules and even after that the models have what 10-20 years likely in them.


And sure GW's shipping issues hurt them; but they are totally out of GW's control and those same issues are hurting a vast majority of businesses. Builders are hiking prices because materials are in short supply; start up firms are struggling to get their supply chains established; shipping containers are still vastly inflated in price and some are still being auctioned off and many ports are still not over the backlog of ships let alone containers.

These are issues where GW is far from alone in the market; if anything they have some bonuses in that a lot of their material is in house - worst case situation they can still sell models in plain boxes if need be.

 Brushfire wrote:
If their stock continues to plunge, it will correlate with what I've seen with all used GW stuff up for sale on various FB marketplace forums. The growing inflation is cutting back people's disposable income. I think GW has truly tanked, with nowhere else to go after maxing out upgrading their model lines to the ninth degree. Where's the rest of the Death Krieg line? Held up in China? If they don't get them up up soon, it will be too late to offer for Christmas.

It wasn't ever going to be up to offer for Christmas...and it has nothing to do with China in all likelihood. Saying that immediately makes you look ridiculous as well, given that miniature production is done in the UK, outside of scenery or objective pieces.

 Overread wrote:

caladancid wrote:
Yeah, everyone knows it is actually a good thing when stocks fall. Duh.


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Voss wrote:
But its almost the exact same value it was a year ago!
Shock! Horror! Gasp!

An entire year of value wiped out, I can guarantee you that no company in the world thinks the way you seem to think about this.

Except the year of value from last year was abnormal. GW's product demand was far in excess of its normal sales levels and was unsustainable as a good portion of it was existing customers and returning customers not new customers. So at some point that demand would be expected to level off. Heck GW needs it to level off because otherwise they'd have serious issues with mounting supply problems.

1) I don't think you have any information about whether the customers were new or returning.

2) Demand has not leveled off- it has fallen.

3) Although I cannot guarantee you because who knows with GW, it seems quite unlikely the board members and investors sat around thinking "jeez this is TOO MUCH MONEY. Hopefully pretty soon the demand for our product falls so we can get back to wiping with toilet paper instead of hundred dollar bills."

Except stock value is measure of subjective value, not the actual health of a company. If GW sees a significant dip in profits, that might be an issue. Somehow I doubt it, even with a few stinkers this year.

GW didn't die/get bought out by Hasbro when it was at it's absolute lowest in mid-2010s, this is basically a fart in the wind.

 Overread wrote:
These are issues where GW is far from alone in the market; if anything they have some bonuses in that a lot of their material is in house - worst case situation they can still sell models in plain boxes if need be.

well, GW was more or less the only company with their marketing build up on momentum and releasing stuff faster than people can thing if they really need it
of course this could not last as the market would haven been saturated by one point without expanding it

with the shortages and delivery problems, the momentum stopped for different reasons and the question is if GW can build it up again and sell on hype before it starts to hurt them (a customer who has enough time to think twice about such products is most likely not buying them and GW knows that, they also once said that the main sales of a product happen with pre-order and release)

but this has nothing to do with the stock value

caladancid wrote:


3) Although I cannot guarantee you because who knows with GW, it seems quite unlikely the board members and investors sat around thinking "jeez this is TOO MUCH MONEY. Hopefully pretty soon the demand for our product falls so we can get back to wiping with toilet paper instead of hundred dollar bills."

No but when you can't keep your product lines in stock and keep adding more product lines that you also cannot keep in stock you hit an issue whereby customers are no longer buying your models because you haven't got them to sell. At which point those customers grow increasingly likely to start looking at 3rd party options. GW only just completed a new factory which was supposed to be that re-investment in future proofing their production needs. Now with covid regulations and power issues (still not sure if they've ever been resolved) they don't have maximum capacity to produce. So right now the only way they could cope with continual increasing demand would be more re-investment.

Which for GW is a direct hit to profits because they don't take out loans to expand.


So in a sense yes too many sales isn't a good thing.



If you want a better example look at Kickstarters and how many can flounder and die because they take on WAY too many customers at once


Yes companies want more customers, but they want a controlled expansion where they can meet the demand.

Granted, as I noted, GW's current inability is part demand part production and in theory if the covid situation comes under control to a point where they can return to pre-covid workplace operation then they might well have a comfortable production overhead to meet demand

After seeing the offering they have on the new Dungeon Bowl boxset I can't blame Kramer for smacking the "SELL, SELL, SELL!" button.

No, Arch is fine, but lots of grievance sellers do videos about stock fluctuations even though stock fluctuations don't mean much of anything to us in the normal world.

 Overread wrote:
Perhaps it might be better to look at the last 5 years instead of the last 1

Not really, as one or two historic instances aside, the trend of stock market value is upwards, so much like property, if you can afford to sit on stocks long enough, they'll always net you value.

The only way that line has any informational value is if it's plotted against a second line showing the average. I suspect GAW might be largely above it for most of that time, but without that context it is essentially meaningless.


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And, in fact, a quick Google shows that in the last 6m GAW has fallen 24% while the FTSE has grown 4% on average.

This is suggestive, albeit not conclusive, that there are factors around GAW specifically that are independent of wider economic factors.

If I was a simpleton, with a frankly bizarre agenda, I might agree with OP.

Sadly whilst by no means the smartest person in the thread (though I might fancy I’m within the upper echelons thereof?), I know enough that share prices don’t necessarily follow market forces.

They go up. They go down. That’s what shares do. And anyone with half a brain who holds such shares will know what they paid for said shares, their risk appetite and what have you.

Because such things aren’t as simple as butthurt interwebular commentators getting their arse in their hands, because reasons.

They don't go down for no reason.

They go down because more people are interested in selling them than people are in buying them, so for people to be persuaded to buy them the asking price has to fall. It's the very paragon of market forces. Supply exceeds demand and the price falls, the reverse happens and the price rises.

What is true is that share prices do not always react exclusively to hard figures, speculation and perception can also play a part. But do you honestly think anyone who is firmly convinced that GAW shares are going to continue to generate them money from dividends and climb in price is looking to sell them in volumes sufficient to drive the price down?

 Azreal13 wrote:
They don't go down for no reason.

They go down because more people are interested in selling them than people are in buying them, so for people to be persuaded to buy them the asking price has to fall. It's the very paragon of market forces. Supply exceeds demand and the price falls, the reverse happens and the price rises.

What is true is that share prices do not always react exclusively to hard figures, speculation and perception can also play a part. But do you honestly think anyone who is firmly convinced that GAW shares are going to continue to generate them money from dividends and climb in price is looking to sell them in volumes sufficient to drive the price down?

Wrong. According to the poster before you, when stocks fall it is meaningless. Now, when they go up, I would wager that poster and those like him were fully willing to attribute that to something positive in GW.

Let me be clear, this can be for reasons completely outside of GW's control. A large institution may have decided to dump a large block of shares to free up capital to invest elsewhere, for instance. (This doesn't appear to be the case though, as large share transfers need to be declared.)

What also interesting is they declared a dividend last week, and we're at the cut off for share ownership to qualify right now, and it doesn't seem to have illicited any sort of bounce.

I mean, this was to be expected eventually.

What was weird was how long it kept climbing.