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Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





Inflation currently 5% in UK and 10% in US. Some credible people are predicting up to 30% next year, seems wild but idk. How will it affect the hobby? I'm not sure, demand for this stuff is supposed to be elastic but often doesn't seem like that. Either way I'm quite concerned, mostly due to inflation across the board, not hobby stuff.
   
Made in ch
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





Don't worry, GW allways prices upwards and over inflation.

https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page
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Made in au
Grizzled Space Wolves Great Wolf





It's a bit worrying, without trying to start a political debate, a side effect of using the money printer to solve problems.

House price increases over the past decade have been my biggest concern over day to day items. It's gone crazy out here and I hear in many other parts of the world. House prices in the past few years have gone up more than I could save, and rent also going up makes it harder to save. The rent prices paused a bit with covid, but surprisingly not the house prices.

But if day to day items start jumping insanely then that'll just make life even harder again.
   
Made in ca
Ragin' Ork Dreadnought




Monarchy of TBD

If it really hits 30%, and wages don't keep pace, I can see that being the push to make 3d printing the norm. When things cost more, the time it takes to acquire the skill to print and modify STLs suddenly starts looking a lot more appealing, and 3d printer prices are dropping.

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Courageous Silver Helm





For the hobby, as for everything, prices will go up. GW doesnt need any reason for a yearly price increase anyway. But other companies will do the same, Parabellum for example said the resin they use went up 50% and have to up the prices to at least have profit on specific items. Nice.

Earlier this year (April) I made a price list of groceries I regularly buy. I was curious to compare the price towards the end of the year since all the money printing + supply chain issues were for sure going to pump up the prices. Checked this week and almost everything on the list is up about 10%. Some fruit and vegetables are +30%. Great.
   
Made in ca
Dipping With Wood Stain






My grocery bill has almost doubled since 2019.
Inflation might ‘only’ be at 5% in most places but prices are up for daily living are up much more than that.
I’m super happy we managed to buy a house when we did. Friends I know that are trying now are finding it very difficult to impossible.
My main concern is interest rates skyrocketing when it’s time to renew my mortgage:
   
Made in us
Last Remaining Whole C'Tan






Pleasant Valley, Iowa

I had hoped Covid would cause a decrease in housing prices as, not to be insensitive, homeowning boomers got killed off. In fact the exact opposite happened - we had a historical pricing spike on housing here.

We are seeing lots of crazy high price hikes on stuff like steak/beef etc.

Crazy times.


So far as the hobby, it's not going to touch it I don't think. It's already a very expensive hobby for what it is, it will just get more so.



 lord_blackfang wrote:
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 Flinty wrote:
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Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





Federal reserve plans to hike interest rates 3 times next year https://www.bankerandtradesman.com/fed-to-accelerate-withdrawal-of-economic-aid-as-prices-surge/
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





Everyone was careful to get fixed rate loans and mortgages while money was cheap, right?
   
Made in us
Last Remaining Whole C'Tan






Pleasant Valley, Iowa

 Nurglitch wrote:
Everyone was careful to get fixed rate loans and mortgages while money was cheap, right?


I wish. We paid off our mortgage a few years ago and had been shopping around for houses, but at these prices... forget it. Sigh, what could have been.


 lord_blackfang wrote:
Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.

 Flinty wrote:
The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
 
   
Made in ru
Daemonic Dreadnought





Eye of Terror

 Ghool wrote:
My grocery bill has almost doubled since 2019.
Inflation might ‘only’ be at 5% in most places but prices are up for daily living are up much more than that.
I’m super happy we managed to buy a house when we did. Friends I know that are trying now are finding it very difficult to impossible.
My main concern is interest rates skyrocketing when it’s time to renew my mortgage:


If we were using the same CPI we used in 1982, inflation would be at around 15%.

Great if you own assets, terrible if you need to put food on the table.

As far as the price of miniatures goes - there are a few ways the price could stay constant. If that happens, it would be the first time GW miniatures cost less in real dollars.

   
Made in us
Last Remaining Whole C'Tan






Pleasant Valley, Iowa

If I recall correctly, when pounds sterling plummeted against USD a few years back, Forge World just jacked up their prices to the US even more to "adjust" it.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the alignment chart, Hasslefree ran a bunch of sales and urged US people to buy while the prices were so great.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/12/15 20:32:44


 lord_blackfang wrote:
Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.

 Flinty wrote:
The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
 
   
Made in gb
The Daemon Possessing Fulgrim's Body





Devon, UK

Didn't they even frame it as good news because you didn't need to worry your pretty little heads with such complicated things as basic division and multiplication to work out the exchange rates?

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Made in ru
Daemonic Dreadnought





Eye of Terror

 Ouze wrote:
If I recall correctly, when pounds sterling plummeted against USD a few years back, Forge World just jacked up their prices to the US even more to "adjust" it.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the alignment chart, Hasslefree ran a bunch of sales and urged US people to buy while the prices were so great.


Well, there's dollars converted to pounds sterling, then there's the purchasing power of the dollar. The exchange rate can stay the same, but if the purchasing power goes down that means you can buy fewer goods and services.

So if there is inflation but the price of miniatures stays the same, those miniatures have become cheaper relative to all the other things you buy. The price of miniatures can go up, but if the change in price is below the rate of inflation, you are technically getting a discount.

The main way we gauge inflation is the Consumer Price Index. It's a measure of the average cost of commonly purchased goods.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp

Good idea to keep an eye on it. I'm very skeptical of the inflation numbers right now and see a lot of evidence to suggest it's at least double what's being claimed.

Here's the real question: GW releases a lot of 5-man kits these days. What are the odds they predicted inflation and prepared for it ahead of time?

   
Made in gb
[MOD]
Villanous Scum







Friendly reminder to make sure the discussion remains on the hobby effect please, so far so good but we all know how these things spiral.

On parle toujours mal quand on n'a rien à dire. 
   
Made in au
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





 techsoldaten wrote:
If we were using the same CPI we used in 1982, inflation would be at around 15%.


We don't use the same CPI because product quality changes over time.

This;


is not the same as this;


“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. 
   
Made in ru
Daemonic Dreadnought





Eye of Terror

 sebster wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:
If we were using the same CPI we used in 1982, inflation would be at around 15%.


We don't use the same CPI because product quality changes over time.

This;


is not the same as this;



First Land Raider I bought was $35. The same model now sells for around $80, it's more than 10 years old. Same sprues, different packaging. Same is true for a large part of the line.

If you want to argue the Orks look better, fine. But COLI is meant to refer to innovations, not iterations.

   
Made in au
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





 techsoldaten wrote:
First Land Raider I bought was $35. The same model now sells for around $80, it's more than 10 years old. Same sprues, different packaging. Same is true for a large part of the line.


Umm, yeah. Not every price increase is a result of product improvement. There is also inflation. That's why there is inflation, adjusted for product improvement.

If you want to argue the Orks look better, fine. But COLI is meant to refer to innovations, not iterations.


No. At no point in any economics analysis is anyone going through and picking out what is an innovation and marking that to be included, and what is an iteration to be excluded. That would be impossible, and pointless and just weird.

What they are doing is measuring what a consumer could spend if they just wanted the old products, and using that to adjust inflation. It doesn't go in to deciding if the new model i-phone is innovatively different to the old model or just an iterative change, it just notes the new model has utility improvements over the old model and makes an adjustment based on the relative price of the old model compared to the new one.

“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. 
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

Important to keep in mind that inflation is often reported nationally in aggregate but varies considerably in regional terms and by individual goods.

In general terms, its only up about 5% on common household goods for me locally in NJ - but traveling to the Midwest ive seen prices up 2-3x higher from where they were in some cases.

CoALabaer wrote:
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Pleasant Valley, Iowa



Sebster! I haven't seen you in forever and I've missed you.

 techsoldaten wrote:
I'm very skeptical of the inflation numbers right now and see a lot of evidence to suggest it's at least double what's being claimed.


If it doesn't touch on you-know-what, what makes you say that?

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2021/12/16 06:54:30


 lord_blackfang wrote:
Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.

 Flinty wrote:
The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
 
   
Made in au
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





 Ouze wrote:


Sebster! I haven't seen you in forever and I've missed you.


Hey mate, I've missed you too and a bunch of other dakka people, most of whom still seem to be posting here, which is cool. I went and got a job that's actually pretty full on so I don't really have the time to be on dakka anymore, but you know, its Christmas time and things are pretty quiet so I thought I'd pop in here. Also I finally got to see Dune and wanted to put my thoughts somewhere.

“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. 
   
Made in us
Humming Great Unclean One of Nurgle






I don't know if I can handle this much sanity in a thread. Where's the baseless claims? The passive-aggressive-definitely-not-impolite ad hominem? People are deciding to post their opinions in a sensical non-inflamatory way and I don't remember how to handle that.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
chaos0xomega wrote:
Important to keep in mind that inflation is often reported nationally in aggregate but varies considerably in regional terms and by individual goods.

In general terms, its only up about 5% on common household goods for me locally in NJ - but traveling to the Midwest ive seen prices up 2-3x higher from where they were in some cases.
This is indeed a very important factor. Exponentially more so with housing.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2021/12/16 08:08:41


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Made in ru
Courageous Silver Helm





 Ouze wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:
I'm very skeptical of the inflation numbers right now and see a lot of evidence to suggest it's at least double what's being claimed.


If it doesn't touch on you-know-what, what makes you say that?


If I may... inflation, like any other stat, is subject to cherry picking. So the basket of goods to calculate cpi can change from year to year. It is not a secret that this is used to "soften" the outcome, sometimes including goods/services that have not skyrocketed while excluding other that did. There are sites like Shadowstats that use the old methodology of the 80's to calculate inflation (fixed basket), and it constantly throws higher numbers than those officially published.
Considering industrial good and services are some of the hardest hit (clearly not 10%), some miniature companies are likely to suffer in 2022 (or already are).

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2021/12/16 08:58:02


 
   
Made in us
Stormblade



SpaceCoast

GWs gonna GW they're big enough to weather the storm, I worry about the mid size companies though. Add this on to everything else and it could get brutal.
   
Made in us
Battlefield Tourist




MN (Currently in WY)

Once Supply Chains get sorted then a lot of this goes away.

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Made in us
Daemonic Dreadnought





Eye of Terror

sebster wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:
First Land Raider I bought was $35. The same model now sells for around $80, it's more than 10 years old. Same sprues, different packaging. Same is true for a large part of the line.


Umm, yeah. Not every price increase is a result of product improvement. There is also inflation. That's why there is inflation, adjusted for product improvement.


First off, good to see you! Been a while.

sebster wrote:
If you want to argue the Orks look better, fine. But COLI is meant to refer to innovations, not iterations.


No. At no point in any economics analysis is anyone going through and picking out what is an innovation and marking that to be included, and what is an iteration to be excluded. That would be impossible, and pointless and just weird.

What they are doing is measuring what a consumer could spend if they just wanted the old products, and using that to adjust inflation. It doesn't go in to deciding if the new model i-phone is innovatively different to the old model or just an iterative change, it just notes the new model has utility improvements over the old model and makes an adjustment based on the relative price of the old model compared to the new one.


Disagree with the idea distinctions don't matter, at least from the standpoint that it's not an accurate measure of the economy.

iPhones do a bad job representing the point. Shrinkflation is probably the best, the idea that you're paying the same for less of a box of cereal that provides 75% of what you got a couple years before.

CPI measures the cost, not the yield, and this matters in a highly centralized economy where consumers have fewer alternatives for common goods and services (food, hygiene products, etc.) That's not impossible to measure nor is it pointless or weird. The distinction reflects changes in living standards that have a material impact on people's lives.

Ouze wrote:
 techsoldaten wrote:
I'm very skeptical of the inflation numbers right now and see a lot of evidence to suggest it's at least double what's being claimed.


If it doesn't touch on you-know-what, what makes you say that?


While I could point to lots of things (price of housing / used cars / etc throughout the US, backlogs on orders of luxury goods,) it's mainly the Fed. Buying bonds and keeping prime lending rates at 0% is a witches brew. It keeps prices down and backstops companies while at the same time creating perverse incentives for businesses to maximize around short term goals.

In the near term, the Fed's actions depress prices. In the long term, they lead to devalued currency as markets correct.

Inflation that hasn't been realized yet is still inflation. Can't print money forever.

   
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Fort Worth, TX

 Easy E wrote:
Once Supply Chains get sorted then a lot of this goes away.


For a lot of normal stuff, sure.
But, as someone already said, "GW is gonna GW".

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One chants out between two worlds: Fire, walk with me."
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Made in au
The Dread Evil Lord Varlak





VBS wrote:
If I may... inflation, like any other stat, is subject to cherry picking. So the basket of goods to calculate cpi can change from year to year. It is not a secret that this is used to "soften" the outcome, sometimes including goods/services that have not skyrocketed while excluding other that did.


This is all theoretically possible, but a complete non-factor in real life. The basket of goods isn't picked by some bureaucrat who picks goods based on whether he wants a higher or lower CPI. That would be insane. BLS gets around 20,000 people from all facets of life to provide in detail all their consumer spending.

No-one is doing anything to 'soften' the outcome.

There are sites like Shadowstats that use the old methodology of the 80's to calculate inflation (fixed basket), and it constantly throws higher numbers than those officially published.


Not quite. What Shadowstats did was complain that BLS used a different method in the 1980s, and if that method was used today inflation would be ~2.5% higher. But Shadowstats isn't doing an alternate calculation of inflation today. All Shadowstats is doing is taking the current rate of inflation and adding a fixed constant. Shadowstats was never anything but a scam.



There are, by the way, alternate methods of calculating inflation. With so much on-line data now, there have been new methods used to survey more people, and vastly more products. But here's the funny thing, they all line up really closely with the BLS method, to the point where if BLS were to change, it would probably only do because these other methods are likely to be cheapr and faster, not because they have any better sense of inflation.

“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”

Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something. 
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

 Easy E wrote:
Once Supply Chains get sorted then a lot of this goes away.


I think at this point its pretty clear that we aren't seeing transitory inflation, seems most economists are now saying that was a bad call and didn't account for a number of factors that weren't entirely obvious a year back and only really came to light more recently. We will see prices stabilize and deflate once this thing runs its course - but its not going to deflate back down to where it was.

CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in us
Battlefield Tourist




MN (Currently in WY)

chaos0xomega wrote:
 Easy E wrote:
Once Supply Chains get sorted then a lot of this goes away.


I think at this point its pretty clear that we aren't seeing transitory inflation, seems most economists are now saying that was a bad call and didn't account for a number of factors that weren't entirely obvious a year back and only really came to light more recently. We will see prices stabilize and deflate once this thing runs its course - but its not going to deflate back down to where it was.


It never does..... ever.

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