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I'm getting 130mm and some 40mm bases for 3D printed models. I paint my rims a dirty brown so I'm not concerned about painting the edge of the bases. I'd just glue the models on, prime them, paint the models, then apply Vallejo mud to the bases. Would this work out well? I'm concerned they'll warp from humidity or any accidental water spills.

Depends on the size of the base. Large ones are more vulnerable to warping than small ones.

Water spills are always a concern, as that involves a lot more water than any other issue.

Humidity will depend heavily on the environment. Unless you have a humidifier running in your painting room, odds are your humidity in an American winter won't be much of a factor. On the other hand, summertime humidity might become an issue.

I've worked with some larger MDF bases and not had any real problems with warping... but they have warped a little bit. Had something gone differently I might have had a serious problem. It might well be worth sealing them just to be safe, especially if you live in a humd part of the country.

I definitely would, I do

I live in the Gulf South though, where humidity is always high