If the US Fiscal Cliff Occurs, Who Is To Blame?

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**Tannhauser42**

For the most part, I think the markets expected this situation to happen, for all the usual political reasons cited so far in this thread. S,o I doubt we'll see much impact on them tomorrow. Now, if the House and Senate can't agree on a deal within the next day or two, then we'll see some problems.

**ExNoctemNacimur**

I've just had an idea . . .

Instead of sending people to jail for some crimes, why not slap a fine on them? If they can't afford it, don't send them to prison! Raincheck the fine! Every month they can't pay for whatever reason, add interest! It not only increases government revenue, it reduces revenue on prisons!

Automatically Appended Next Post:
This is a 16 year old's plan, so there's probably loads of holes in the theory.

**whembly**

ExNoctemNacimur wrote:
I've just had an idea . . .

Instead of sending people to jail for some crimes, why not slap a fine on them? If they can't afford it, don't send them to prison! Raincheck the fine! Every month they can't pay for whatever reason, add interest! It not only increases government revenue, it reduces revenue on prisons!

Automatically Appended Next Post:
This is a 16 year old's plan, so there's probably loads of holes in the theory.

You wanna bring back indentured servants?

**ExNoctemNacimur**

What? No! I need to rethink that.

How about this:
You're fined 50% of your monthly income?

**d-usa**

It's a bad idea and you should feel bad for having it

**ExNoctemNacimur**

What's bad about it, apart from indentured servitude that may or not occur from it?

**whembly**

ExNoctemNacimur wrote:
What's bad about it, apart from indentured servitude that may or not occur from it?

I guess your arguement should be something like... all non-violent crimes would be a fine vs. violent crimes prison times?

**LordofHats**

Breaking News!

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate has passed legislation to block the impact of across-the-board tax increases and spending cuts that make up the fiscal cliff.

The vote was an overwhelming 89-8 and came well after midnight on New Year's Day.

A House vote is expected before Wednesday.

The White House-backed legislation would prevent middle-class taxes from rising, and raise rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for couples.

It also blocks spending cuts for two months, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, prevents a 27 percent cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients and prevents a spike in milk prices.

A last-minute addition would also prevent a $900 pay raise for members of Congress from taking effect in March.

Might have to actually shore up some respect for Congress after reading that last sentence... Nah.

**Shadowseer_Kim**

Once again we have the problem that tax plans and budgets are required to start in the house, not the senate.

So this senate written bill, which basically says "close your eyes and pretend it is all going away and won't happen" probably won't go anywhere.

Unless the House also wants to play pretend.

**Ouze**

The working theory I read was that the GOP wants to not fix it until the second. The rationale being, taxes have technically gone up - if they then work out a deal on the second, they can then accurately claim they cut taxes as part of the deal.

**LordofHats**

Ouze wrote:
The working theory I read was that the GOP wants to not fix it until the second. The rationale being, taxes have technically gone up - if they then work out a deal on the second, they can then accurately claim they cut taxes as part of the deal.

I've always figured the parties would do something like that. To me this entire ordeal is nothing but an opportunity D's and R's have taken to grand stand and poke at one another with both sides knowing they'll pass something last second.

**whembly**

LordofHats wrote:
Ouze wrote:
The working theory I read was that the GOP wants to not fix it until the second. The rationale being, taxes have technically gone up - if they then work out a deal on the second, they can then accurately claim they cut taxes as part of the deal.

I've always figured the parties would do something like that. To me this entire ordeal is nothing but an opportunity D's and R's have taken to grand stand and poke at one another with both sides knowing they'll pass something last second.

Yup... that's why I blame them ALL for getting us here in the first place.

In other words: "Senate passes massive tax cut which raised taxes over $600 billion in middle of night without reading the bill."

**Grey Templar**

LordofHats wrote:
Breaking News!

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate has passed legislation to block the impact of across-the-board tax increases and spending cuts that make up the fiscal cliff.

The vote was an overwhelming 89-8 and came well after midnight on New Year's Day.

A House vote is expected before Wednesday.

The White House-backed legislation would prevent middle-class taxes from rising, and raise rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for couples.

It also blocks spending cuts for two months, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, prevents a 27 percent cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients and prevents a spike in milk prices.

A last-minute addition would also prevent a $900 pay raise for members of Congress from taking effect in March.

Might have to actually shore up some respect for Congress after reading that last sentence... Nah.

Am I the only person seeing the loophole in the tax raise?

Couples with a combined income of 450,000 will simply file taxes seperatly

**whembly**

Grey Templar wrote:
LordofHats wrote:
Breaking News!

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate has passed legislation to block the impact of across-the-board tax increases and spending cuts that make up the fiscal cliff.

The vote was an overwhelming 89-8 and came well after midnight on New Year's Day.

A House vote is expected before Wednesday.

The White House-backed legislation would prevent middle-class taxes from rising, and raise rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for couples.

It also blocks spending cuts for two months, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, prevents a 27 percent cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients and prevents a spike in milk prices.

A last-minute addition would also prevent a $900 pay raise for members of Congress from taking effect in March.

Might have to actually shore up some respect for Congress after reading that last sentence... Nah.

Am I the only person seeing the loophole in the tax raise?

Couples with a combined income of 450,000 will simply file taxes seperatly

Nope... saw that too...
"I notice that it’s $400K for individuals, but only $450K for married couples. That’s a $350K difference in threshold if you’re living together but not married. Is Congress anti-marriage?"

Of course not... just stirring the pot.

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Here's more details...

CBO on Fiscal Cliff Deal: $1 in Spending Cuts ($15 Billion) for Every $41 in Tax Increases ($620 Billion):

The Senate early this morning passed H.R. 8 by a vote of 89-8 to avert the fiscal cliff. Highlights of the bill include:
-Raise the marginal tax rate to 39.6% on income over $450,000 (joint) and $400,000 (single).
-Raise the tax rate on dividends and long term capital gains to 20% on taxpayers with income over $450,000 (joint) and $400,000 (single). The top rate would remain 15% for taxpayers with lower incomes.
-Estate and gift tax: $5 million exemption (inflation-adjusted) and 40% rate.
-Permanent and retroactive patch for the AMT.
-Return of the exemption and itemized deduction phase-outs on taxpayers with income over $300,000 (joint) and $250,000 (single).
-One-year extension of 50% bonus depreciation.
-Extension of various tax extenders.

**Grey Templar**

whembly wrote:
Grey Templar wrote:
LordofHats wrote:
Breaking News!

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Senate has passed legislation to block the impact of across-the-board tax increases and spending cuts that make up the fiscal cliff.

The vote was an overwhelming 89-8 and came well after midnight on New Year's Day.

A House vote is expected before Wednesday.

The White House-backed legislation would prevent middle-class taxes from rising, and raise rates on incomes over $400,000 for individuals and $450,000 for couples.

It also blocks spending cuts for two months, extends unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless, prevents a 27 percent cut in fees for doctors who treat Medicare patients and prevents a spike in milk prices.

A last-minute addition would also prevent a $900 pay raise for members of Congress from taking effect in March.

Might have to actually shore up some respect for Congress after reading that last sentence... Nah.

Am I the only person seeing the loophole in the tax raise?

Couples with a combined income of 450,000 will simply file taxes seperatly

Nope... saw that too...
"I notice that it’s $400K for individuals, but only $450K for married couples. That’s a $350K difference in threshold if you’re living together but not married. Is Congress anti-marriage?"

Of course not... just stirring the pot.

You can still be married and file taxes seperatly. Its actually only really an advantage to file together if only one of you is working, that way the other is a dependent.

But with this loophole, if you both work and make a combined salary of over 450k it is best to file seperatly.

**whembly**

The things we do to avoid taxes...

In other news, saw this on twitter:

Rep Spencer Bacchus, R-AL, says consensus is building in GOP House meeting to amend cliff bill and send it back to Sen w/some spending cuts.

Budget reconciliation... HERE.WE.COME!

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Woah... via twit again:

Per republicans, cantor is opposing the fiscal cliff bill during GOP conference. Boehner laying out "options." Not good signs at all

Me thinks that Cantor is staking his oppositions in order to run against Boehner for Speaker now... o.O

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Shadowseer_Kim wrote:
Once again we have the problem that tax plans and budgets are required to start in the house, not the senate.

So this senate written bill, which basically says "close your eyes and pretend it is all going away and won't happen" probably won't go anywhere.

Unless the House also wants to play pretend.

Forgot to add... while that's what it appears, technically, this Fiscal Bill that the Senate passed was an old House Republican Bill (HR 8) that the Senate "gutted" and added their plan.

So, according to the Constitution, it's legal.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

House progressives held emergency meeting last night about the deal, which many of them hate.

So... if the Tea Party hates it, and the Progressive Caucus hate... it's gotta be good?

**Maddermax**

Yeah, it's looking like, once again, the house GOP will crap all over itself rather than get anything done, just as predicted. Considering the bill passed with an overwhelming majority of both parties (88 yeas) in the senate, they can't even pass this off as a partisan bill.

The house GOP just plain sucks.

**whembly**

Maddermax wrote:
Yeah, it's looking like, once again, the house GOP will crap all over itself rather than get anything done, just as predicted. Considering the bill passed with an overwhelming majority of both parties (88 yeas) in the senate, they can't even pass this off as a partisan bill.

The house GOP just plain sucks.

<<<---- looks are your map...

Just curious, why you interested in our politics? Are we just that disfunctional compared to your politics?

Automatically Appended Next Post:
Just saw something downright devious...

Say the House amend the current Senate bill with the following:
(a) repeal of the deductibility of state income tax, and
(b) repeal the deduction for mortgage interest.

That'll hurt a widespread group of taxpayers but, 85% of the financial benefit of those two measures accrues to high income taxpayers in coastal states which happen to be solidly Democratic.

Devious... but, ain't gonna happen.

The House members are on the floor now doing something... brb.

**Maddermax**

whembly wrote:
Maddermax wrote:
Yeah, it's looking like, once again, the house GOP will crap all over itself rather than get anything done, just as predicted. Considering the bill passed with an overwhelming majority of both parties (88 yeas) in the senate, they can't even pass this off as a partisan bill.

The house GOP just plain sucks.

<<<---- looks are your map...

Just curious, why you interested in our politics? Are we just that disfunctional compared to your politics?

I'm somewhat interested in US politics in general, in the same way that passers by are interested in traffic accidents. A sort of morbid curiosity at how dysfunctional it can be, and it's far more interesting than our own politics currently.

However, with the 'fiscal cliff', it has the possibility to affect the rest of the world - the US going into recession right while Europe is still weak and shaky could have profound and reverberating effects globally. In other words, this does involve the rest of the world, even though it's still internal US politics. While I don't think it will be nearly as bad as the worst case predictions, and probably outright recession will be avoided, but it's still not going to be fun, I'm sure.

**whembly**

Maddermax wrote:
whembly wrote:
Maddermax wrote:
Yeah, it's looking like, once again, the house GOP will crap all over itself rather than get anything done, just as predicted. Considering the bill passed with an overwhelming majority of both parties (88 yeas) in the senate, they can't even pass this off as a partisan bill.

The house GOP just plain sucks.

<<<---- looks are your map...

Just curious, why you interested in our politics? Are we just that disfunctional compared to your politics?

I'm somewhat interested in US politics in general, in the same way that passers by are interested in traffic accidents. A sort of morbid curiosity at how dysfunctional it can be, and it's far more interesting than our own politics currently.

Cool... just interesting to get an outsider's perspective.

However, with the 'fiscal cliff', it has the possibility to affect the rest of the world - the US going into recession right while Europe is still weak and shaky could have profound and reverberating effects globally. In other words, this does involve the rest of the world, even though it's still internal US politics. While I don't think it will be nearly as bad as the worst case predictions, and probably outright recession will be avoided, but it's still not going to be fun, I'm sure.

Newsflash... even with this deal, we're probably heading towards a recession anyways...

**Maddermax**

whembly wrote:

However, with the 'fiscal cliff', it has the possibility to affect the rest of the world - the US going into recession right while Europe is still weak and shaky could have profound and reverberating effects globally. In other words, this does involve the rest of the world, even though it's still internal US politics. While I don't think it will be nearly as bad as the worst case predictions, and probably outright recession will be avoided, but it's still not going to be fun, I'm sure.

Newsflash... even with this deal, we're probably heading towards a recession anyways...

I have a different view, that even without a broad fiscal deal an outright recession will probably be avoided, but the economy will be far more stagnant than it otherwise would have been (a massive, sudden and indiscriminate cut in government spending will do that, and structured cuts over a few years would be far more pragmatic).

**Bloodfrenzy187**

This country has met the definition of insanity by electing the same officials and expecting different results from them. Truly we only have ourselves to blame for continuously putting the same nonsensical people in power and never demanding true change in our political process. We need to demand that the elected officials we put in office do the work of the people and if caught being corrupt there needs to be sever public punishment for public servants that serve only self.

**Seaward**

Maddermax wrote:
Yeah, it's looking like, once again, the house GOP will crap all over itself rather than get anything done, just as predicted. Considering the bill passed with an overwhelming majority of both parties (88 yeas) in the senate, they can't even pass this off as a partisan bill.

The house GOP just plain sucks.

That's one way of interpreting it, sure.

House Republicans are, to my understanding, holding out for more actual spending cuts. If the entire point of this exercise is to bring the budget in line, it makes little sense to raise taxes - and then promptly commit to spending the money on new or increased initiatives.

**d-usa**

And the self-delusion begins:

10:38 p.m. ET – Republican Rep. Dave Camp says the permanent extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for households making less than $450,000 is “the largest tax cut in the history of the country.”

**whembly**

d-usa wrote:
And the self-delusion begins:

10:38 p.m. ET – Republican Rep. Dave Camp says the permanent extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for households making less than $450,000 is “the largest tax cut in the history of the country.”

Well... I don't know if it was the LARGEST...

But, it's technically another cut since the original rate went up today prior to the Bush's tax cuts.

But yes, it's all spin.

**AgeOfEgos**

Motion passed, saw this tweet;

Grover Norquist
✔
@GroverNorquist
The Bush tax cuts lapsed at midnight last night. Every R voting for Senate bill is cutting taxes and keeping his/her pledge.

I bet he had to get half lit to choke that out.

**LordofHats**

d-usa wrote:
And the self-delusion begins:

10:38 p.m. ET – Republican Rep. Dave Camp says the permanent extension of the Bush-era tax cuts for households making less than $450,000 is “the largest tax cut in the history of the country.”

Somehow, I have a feeling that in this game of grandstanding the Republicans just keep making themselves look dumber and dumber. Same old same old I guess.

**d-usa**

Does that mean that the majority of Republicans (151 of them) voted against tax cuts for the majority of Americans?

**whembly**

d-usa wrote:
Does that mean that the majority of Republicans (151 of them) voted against tax cuts for the majority of Americans?

Looks like it!

Hey... lookey there... Paul Ryan voted for it. RINO!

**LordofHats**

The bill has assuredly passed. So I guess we can now sit back and wait for the next crisis.