Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!

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**Iron_Captain**

Easy E wrote:

That would be a very BAD idea. Russia has long (like since they first got to the Black Sea) considered access through the Bosphorous as a vital national interest. For a long time, Britain worked to resrtict/limit that access. IIRC it is one of the things that led to the Crimean War. To restrict it now would only escalate things quickly.

It would also be illegal, since international law requires Turkey to always allow acces of ships belonging to the Black Sea states in peace time. Turkey is not allowed to close the strait for Black Sea states unless it is at war with one of those states.

**whembly**

Iron_Captain wrote:
Easy E wrote:

That would be a very BAD idea. Russia has long (like since they first got to the Black Sea) considered access through the Bosphorous as a vital national interest. For a long time, Britain worked to resrtict/limit that access. IIRC it is one of the things that led to the Crimean War. To restrict it now would only escalate things quickly.

It would also be illegal, since international law requires Turkey to always allow acces of ships belonging to the Black Sea states in peace time. Turkey is not allowed to close the strait for Black Sea states unless it is at war with one of those states.

Hence I mentioned they would have to break international law.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

dogma wrote:
Pacific wrote:

Whembly, I'm honestly intrigued about what you think the EU/US should do, other than sanctions and asset freezing? Really, what other options are there?

Putting an ABM system in Poland.

Actually... I like this idea even better. Good call!

**Dreadclaw69**

whembly wrote:
d-usa wrote:
The convention guarantees free passage of civilian vessels in peacetime and only restricts passage of naval ships not belonging to Black Sea states.

Russia is a Black Sea state and it's still peacetime, so I'm not sure how they could do anything to Russia without violating the treaty. Unless I'm missing something...

Nope... you're spot on. Turkey will have to break that treaty.

Like the treaty that Russia broke to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity?

**Co'tor Shas**

Iron_Captain wrote:
Easy E wrote:

That would be a very BAD idea. Russia has long (like since they first got to the Black Sea) considered access through the Bosphorous as a vital national interest. For a long time, Britain worked to resrtict/limit that access. IIRC it is one of the things that led to the Crimean War. To restrict it now would only escalate things quickly.

It would also be illegal, since international law requires Turkey to always allow acces of ships belonging to the Black Sea states in peace time. Turkey is not allowed to close the strait for Black Sea states unless it is at war with one of those states.

I thought Russia was breaking international law?

**dogma**

Easy E wrote:

That would be a very BAD idea. Russia has long (like since they first got to the Black Sea) considered access through the Bosphorous as a vital national interest. For a long time, Britain worked to resrtict/limit that access. IIRC it is one of the things that led to the Crimean War. To restrict it now would only escalate things quickly.

Turkey seems to have threatened to close the Bosphorus to Russian ships if there is violence against Crimean Tatars.

As to the Crimean War, there were many, many causes.

**whembly**

CNN is reporting that the Ukrainian base in Crimea is under attack...

I hope this is just a journalistic malpractice... o.O

**Easy E**

dogma wrote:
Easy E wrote:

That would be a very BAD idea. Russia has long (like since they first got to the Black Sea) considered access through the Bosphorous as a vital national interest. For a long time, Britain worked to resrtict/limit that access. IIRC it is one of the things that led to the Crimean War. To restrict it now would only escalate things quickly.

Turkey seems to have threatened to close the Bosphorus to Russian ships if there is violence against Crimean Tatars.

As to the Crimean War, there were many, many causes.

Of course there were. I just vaguely recall access to the Bosphorus as one of them.

**Iron_Captain**

There is a large victory rally in Moscow right now and one of the guys that got to speak said that Obama was a puppet of the KKK

I just found that really funny and had to mention it here

Also funny, the Russian parliament has just asked the US for more sanctions

http://rt.com/politics/russian-duma-sanctions-crimea-594/

whembly wrote:
CNN is reporting that the Ukrainian base in Crimea is under attack...

I hope this is just a journalistic malpractice... o.O

They have said that tons of times now already, and all the previous times it was not true or massively overreacted. I guess it is the same now.
Russia and Ukraine have already agreed that those Ukrainian soldiers that do not want to swear allegiance to Russia will be peacefully withdrawn this month.

**whembly**

yeah... no kidding.

CNN: "We don't care about being right, we care about being first."

**Frazzled**

dogma wrote:
Easy E wrote:

That would be a very BAD idea. Russia has long (like since they first got to the Black Sea) considered access through the Bosphorous as a vital national interest. For a long time, Britain worked to resrtict/limit that access. IIRC it is one of the things that led to the Crimean War. To restrict it now would only escalate things quickly.

Turkey seems to have threatened to close the Bosphorus to Russian ships if there is violence against Crimean Tatars.

As to the Crimean War, there were many, many causes.

Well there was the whole Tartar Sauce Embargo...

**dogma**

Frazzled wrote:

Well there was the whole Tartar Sauce Embargo...

I really wish that had continued.

**Grey Templar**

Breotan wrote:

Best user comment: "Next Week Obama will freeze Putin's Facebook Account!"

You know, that might actually peeve him off a little. We do know that Putin loves publicity.

**Frazzled**

OT but can someone illuminate me. Supposedly the minority group in Crimea is predominately Tatars correct? Is this the same tribe of fellow horse people that Temudgin allegedly completely destroyed?

**Allod**

Frazzled wrote:
OT but can someone illuminate me. Supposedly the minority group in Crimea is predominately Tatars correct? Is this the same tribe of fellow horse people that Temudgin allegedly completely destroyed?

Yes and no. The Crimean Tatars of today have several ethnic ancestors (Tatars, Kipchaks, Turks, etc.).

**dogma**

Frazzled wrote:
OT but can someone illuminate me. Supposedly the minority group in Crimea is predominately Tatars correct? Is this the same tribe of fellow horse people that Temudgin allegedly completely destroyed?

The Tatar ethnicity is not the same as the Tatar Confederation and, while the Confederation was destroyed, the ethnicity was not.

**Frazzled**

Ok thatnks!

**Mr Morden**

“Do you think Vladimir Putin’s actions in Crimea today are similar to what Hitler did in Austria and Czechoslovakia in 1938?”

“Would you consider it ‘appeasement’ for the U.S. and other western democracies not to take strong action to defend Ukraine?”

Well in that case the US might do something in a couple of years if another nation attacks them...........Plus we have only just finished paying off the debt that the UK ran up to the US paying off the last world war............

**whembly**

From the Haaretz:

Ukrainian soldier killed in Crimea base; PM says conflict is now military

Shooting in Ukrainian army base near Crimean capital is a 'war crime,' Ukrainian PM says.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk said on Tuesday that the conflict in its Crimea peninsula, now under Russian control, had entered a military phase after an Ukrainian officer was killed in an alleged Russian shooting at a Crimea base.

"The conflict is moving from a political one to a military one because of Russian soldiers," he told a meeting at Ukraine's defense ministry. "Today, Russian soldiers began shooting at Ukrainian servicemen and this is a war crime without any expiry under a statute of limitations."

Yatseniuk said he had ordered Ukraine's defense minister to call a meeting with his counterparts from Britain, France, and Russia - signatories to a 1994 treaty guaranteeing Ukraine's borders to "prevent an escalation of the conflict".

Earlier, a military spokesman said a Ukrainian officer was killed in a shooting at a military facility on the outskirts of the Crimean capital Simferopol, but it was unclear who was behind the incident.

Some Ukrainian military facilities in Crimea have been under the control of Russian forces for several weeks after Russian troops poured into the Black Sea peninsula ahead of a referendum at the weekend that handed over control from Ukraine to Russia.

There was no immediate evidence that Russian soldiers were involved in Tuesday's incident, witnesses said, and there are contradictory accounts about the identity of the victim, with Ukrainian media claiming he is a Ukrainian soldier, and pro-Russian sources saying he is a member of the local "self defence forces."

It was not possible to see far into the compound, because streets leading to it had been blocked by so-called "self-defense" units of pro-Russian volunteers who have been patrolling the streets of Crimea in the run-up to the referendum.

There have been major concerns over whether the governments of Russia and Ukraine, who are at loggerheads over Moscow's annexation of Crimea, could achieve a smooth handover of control of Ukrainian military bases in the region.

Pro-Russian nationalists have been seen gathering outside Ukrainian military bases on several occasions this month, demanding that Ukrainian soldiers leave and hand over control to Russian forces.

The fact that the road blocks outside the facility in Simferopol were staffed by "self-defense" units suggested it was they who were involved in the incident rather than Russian forces. The situation was calm by 1520 GMT.

On Sunday, the Ukrainian and Russian Defense Ministries said they had agreed on a truce.

Yeesh... the situation is on thin ice.

**Allod**

I honestly don't think so.

Yatsenyuk knows that as soon as this conflict becomes a war, he has a week in office left in the best of cases. He also knows that no one, not the US, not NATO, not the EU countries, not Turkey, would ever intervene militarily on his behalf.

Basically, Putin is free to do whatever he wants with Ukraine, as long as the west's inevitable sanctions seem to be worth it. Yatsenyuk will hiss and spit and denounce Russia, and that will be the extent of his power.

**Frazzled**

Unless they go the way of Afghanistan of course.

**Allod**

That would still make Yatsenyuk the equivalent of Mohammad Daoud Khan. Hardly enticing.

**Iron_Captain**

whembly wrote:
From the Haaretz:

Ukrainian soldier killed in Crimea base; PM says conflict is now military.

Yeesh... the situation is on thin ice.

Yup, 2 people, a Crimean and an Ukrainian soldier died in a shooting near a military base.
Seems like CNN was actually right this time

**d-usa**

So Russia and/or the Defense Forces are doing what they pretented they wanted to prevent when they first invaded...

**Dreadclaw69**

d-usa wrote:
So Russia and/or the Defense Forces are doing what they pretented they wanted to prevent when they first invaded...

And it only happened after the referendum too. Go figure

**sebster**

whembly wrote:
yeah... no kidding.

CNN: "We don't care about being right, we care about being first."

That isn't just CNN, it's all news agencies. Verifying stories means some other station gets the jump on you, and no station will allow that to happen. The shame of it is I don't think people really insist on news right now even if it isn't true, they'd much rather hear reliable news given with informed context, even if it comes a few hours later. But the news agencies themselves don't realise that, and just push to get stuff on air as soon as possible.

It's a bit like how until quite recently the stars of political reporting were the people with inside contacts who could report on all the inner goings on of the appointment of the new Interior Land Management advisor etc... But then with the internet it become pretty clear pretty quickly that people don't actually give a gak about that gossip, what people actually read was the stuff that helped them understand the policy being debated.

And please don't make me defend CNN ever again

**Breotan**

sebster wrote:
whembly wrote:
yeah... no kidding.

CNN: "We don't care about being right, we care about being first."
That isn't just CNN, it's all news agencies.

To be fair, CNN is going way overboard with the inept news coverage in the race to be first. They did this during the Boston Marathon bombing and again most recently with their coverage of the missing flight out of Malaysia. Sure, other networks have their... flaws, but CNN takes "the dumb" to a whole new level.

**WarOne**

Breotan wrote:
sebster wrote:
whembly wrote:
yeah... no kidding.

CNN: "We don't care about being right, we care about being first."
That isn't just CNN, it's all news agencies.
To be fair, CNN is going way overboard with the inept news coverage in the race to be first. They did this during the Boston Marathon bombing and again most recently with their coverage of the missing flight out of Malaysia. Sure, other networks have their... flaws, but CNN takes "the dumb" to a whole new level.

They're probably trying to race Fox News to the bottom.

**dogma**

sebster wrote:

That isn't just CNN, it's all news agencies. Verifying stories means some other station gets the jump on you, and no station will allow that to happen. The shame of it is I don't think people really insist on news right now even if it isn't true, they'd much rather hear reliable news given with informed context, even if it comes a few hours later. But the news agencies themselves don't realise that, and just push to get stuff on air as soon as possible.

Also consider that putting out a story before anyone else increases the likelihood that your story will be cited by other journalists, which leads to hits for the relevant news agency's website (read: advertising dollars) and enhanced publication credentials for the author.

**Frazzled**

Breotan wrote:
sebster wrote:
whembly wrote:
yeah... no kidding.

CNN: "We don't care about being right, we care about being first."
That isn't just CNN, it's all news agencies.
To be fair, CNN is going way overboard with the inept news coverage in the race to be first. They did this during the Boston Marathon bombing and again most recently with their coverage of the missing flight out of Malaysia. Sure, other networks have their... flaws, but CNN takes "the dumb" to a whole new level.

Wait CNN took time away from their All Malaysia Flight Speculation! ALL THE TIME! policy?
In their defense one cannot count to 30 before Fox mentions "Obamacare" or MSNBC screams "CHRISTIE IS THE ANTICHRIST!"

**MetalOxide**

Well, Russia and Ukraine are added to my list of places I would never visit.