Iron_Captain wrote:
Russia does not need to invade. At this rate, the Ukrainians will turn on themselves and Kiev will do all the work for Putin

 Frazzled wrote:

America has nukes in Europe, are they American nukes or European. Ukraine never had nukes they were Russian, Russia took them back.
Europe will do nothing, Great Britain will do nothing. I'm typing this because our power stations are generating electricity with Russian gas.

See I have a solution. Import Tex Mex and you'll have all the home grown natural gas you could possibly handle.

You don't think we got all this natural gas here from frakking did you?

I should again note here that with the exception of an accidental war, I don't care. I doubt very people in "the West" care. I'm surprised it was ever relased from Mother Russia anyway.

The Baltics, thats a different story. they're NATO, and if Russia starts something there its WWIII. They need to know there is iron still in NATO's words.

 Andrew1975 wrote:
I'm not sure if they were Russian Nukes, Ukrainian Nukes or just plain old Soviet Union Nukes, I don't know who had the launch codes, but it doesn't matter. Anyway you look at it, Nukes in Ukraine would have made this situation very very bad.

 Andrew1975 wrote:

Again, western propaganda. Russia didn't threaten sanctions. They simply said they would no longer be able to provide gas subsidies as the new EU agreement would break the current agreement with The Eurasian Economic Community customs union. Ukraine was free to choose which agreement they wanted, but had to consider the consequences of breaking their current agreements. The main consequence would be that Ukraine would now have to pay THE SAME PRICE EVERYONE ELSE PAYS, not more.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Andrew1975 wrote:
I'm not sure if they were Russian Nukes, Ukrainian Nukes or just plain old Soviet Union Nukes, I don't know who had the launch codes, but it doesn't matter. Anyway you look at it, Nukes in Ukraine would have made this situation very very bad.

They were Soviet nukes. After 1991, they became Ukrainian nukes. Ukraine agreed to give up its nukes in return for Russian protection, and now they are Russian nukes.
And we should be grateful for that. I don't want to think about what could have happened if Pravyj Sektor or 'Svoboda' had gotten their hands on those nukes.

 Andrew1975 wrote:

Spoiler:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Andrew1975 wrote:
I'm not sure if they were Russian Nukes, Ukrainian Nukes or just plain old Soviet Union Nukes, I don't know who had the launch codes, but it doesn't matter. Anyway you look at it, Nukes in Ukraine would have made this situation very very bad.

They were Soviet nukes. After 1991, they became Ukrainian nukes. Ukraine agreed to give up its nukes in return for Russian protection, and now they are Russian nukes.
And we should be grateful for that. I don't want to think about what could have happened if Pravyj Sektor or 'Svoboda' had gotten their hands on those nukes.

I'm not concerned so much about what would have happened if some rogue state got their hands on them, because that wouldn't have happened. The issue is that if Nukes were there, with the possibility of going rogue, Russia would have been forced to roll into all of Ukraine much more aggressively and that would have been a bad situation all around.

Seriously this had the potential to be very bad with or without Nukes. We could have been looking at a Syrian level civil war. Instead what we have is Russia responding to a request for assistance from the democratically elected leader of Ukraine, instead of Rolling in guns blazing to quell a revolution Russia has used a relatively soft touch and kept the uprising from turning into a full out cluster feth of death.

I can not understand why some people really have their panties in a twist about this.

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 Andrew1975 wrote:

Again, western propaganda. Russia didn't threaten sanctions. They simply said they would no longer be able to provide gas subsidies as the new EU agreement would break the current agreement with The Eurasian Economic Community customs union. Ukraine was free to choose which agreement they wanted, but had to consider the consequences of breaking their current agreements. The main consequence would be that Ukraine would now have to pay THE SAME PRICE EVERYONE ELSE PAYS, not more.

Which is in turn, IIRC, in violation of the deal made about the fleet base in Sevastopol. I seem to remember gas price discounts being part of that deal, but I could be misremembering.

Military storm airfield, town in eastern Ukraine, wounded reported - protesters
Published time: April 15, 2014 13:27
Edited time: April 15, 2014 14:07


Ukrainian troops are storming an airfield in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, said anti-Maidan activists as cited by RIA Novosti. The activists added that several people were injured.

Ukrainian troops approached the military airfield in armored personnel carriers between the eastern cities of Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, the people’s militia located at the airfield told RIA Novosti on the phone.

“They started negotiating with the people’s militia, which is in control of the airfield. The shooting started unexpectedly. There are injured among the people’s militia, and there may be deaths,” they said.

Other members of the militia have blocked the entrance to Kramatorsk and are ready to defend the city, the activists added.



At the same time, the eastern city of Slavyansk is being raided by Ukrainian troops, the head of the Donbass people’s militia, Sergey Tsyplakov, told RIA Novosti.

“Currently there is a major attack on Slavyansk, armored personnel vehicles are entering the city… there are many troops. The men are getting ready to defend [the city],” he said.

In turn, the Ukrainian media, quoting the Ministry of Defense, announced a special operation in Kramatorsk on Tuesday. However, they provided no further details.

This looks like war preparations. Checkpoint near #Skavyansk#Donetsk region @Ruptlypic.twitter.com/MdskpNtnW4

— denise reese (@denice_ruptly) April 15, 2014

Anti-government protesters have been holding rallies in the south-eastern part of the country following the coup in Kiev on February 22. Activists have seized government buildings in most of the cities in the Donetsk region. On Sunday, the Kiev government launched a crackdown operation in Slavyansk. Following the event, Ukraine’s Security Council approved a full-scale security operation in the country’s eastern regions. On Monday, coup-imposed President Aleksandr Turchinov signed a decree to officially begin a “special anti-terrorist operation” in the east of the country.

“There is a lot of military machinery here,” said one of the activists. “But the shooting hasn’t started yet.”

Moscow slammed Sunday’s order as “criminal.” It was issued by the coup-imposed acting President Aleksandr Turchinov, and approved a full-scale security operation in the country’s eastern regions.

DETAILS TO FOLLOW

Bryan McGrath commanded the destroyer USS BULKELEY (DDG 84) from 2004-2006. He is currently the Managing Director of the FerryBridge Group and is the Assistant Director of Hudson Institute’s Center for American Seapower.

Press reports indicate that on Saturday, a Russian SU-24 FENCER made “…multiple, close-range passes near an American warship in the Black Sea for more than 90 minutes…” flying within 1000 yards of the USS DONALD COOK (DDG 75) at an altitude of approximately 500 feet. DONALD COOK is an ARLEIGH BURKE Class guided missile destroyer equipped with the Aegis Combat System, the SPY-1D phased-array radar and dozens of surface to air missiles, and the SU-24 is a Soviet-era all-weather attack jet still in service with the Russian Air Force. The incident was no doubt tense, but a few thoughts from someone who has dealt with a few close aboard passes may provide some context.

1. While this type of thing is not “common”, it is meticulously trained for. US ships are equipped with sophisticated embedded training devices that allow for very realistic training. The crew of the DONALD COOK has likely gone through scores if not hundreds of scenarios in which conditions very much like what were seen on Saturday are imposed upon the crew and the crew must then react. Although the exact wording and the rules of engagement that govern their use are classified, press reports indicate that the COOK made numerous attempts to contact the Russian aircraft, but were not answered. Those “queries” would have been practiced throughout the training cycle and even from watch to watch while on deployment. The queries would have been made over at least two different frequencies, commonly known as the “military air distress” frequency and the “international air distress” frequency. It is likely that the pilot of the FENCER heard them, but was pre-briefed not to answer.

2. The Captain of the Destroyer had a lot of guidance. Prior to the DONALD COOK’s transit into the Black Sea, it is likely that the Commanding Officer (CO) had in depth discussions of “what if’s” with both his immediate superior (the Battle Group Commander) and the Sixth Fleet Commander. They would have discussed a range of scenarios and the actions considered appropriate. They would have discussed concepts such as “hostile acts” and “hostile intent” in detail. Additionally, it is likely that while this incident was ongoing, the CO was in constant communication with his superiors, passing them pertinent information and characterizing the situation. The CO of a U.S. ship does not have a “right” to self-defense. He has an obligation to exercise it. That obligation would have been near to his mind, and he would have had a clear understanding of just what constituted a self-defense engagement.

3. The CO was where he needed to be. The Aegis cruisers that joined the fleet in the 1980’s were the first U.S. warships designed for the Captain to be somewhere other than the bridge during combat operations (as opposed to what we’re used to seeing in WWII movies). The DONALD COOK is no different. It is very likely that the CO was in the “Combat Information Center (CIC)”, which is where his team of operators are located who employ the sensors, weapons, and command and control links that make the ship so powerful. Though the situation was likely very tense (at least initially), the space would have been eerily quiet, as most communication occurs over headsets and microphones, with perhaps a random radio frequency brought up in a speaker for emphasis. There are few things more impressive than a modern destroyer at the top of its game doing its job well. There is no wasted motion. All communication is brief. There is far more silence than there is chatter.

4. It is possible DONALD COOK knew the FENCER was inbound before it obtained radar contact. The United States continues to maintain an impressive array of “national assets” that enable it to sustain surveillance on areas of high interest, which this part of the world assuredly is—at least now; DONALD COOK could have received reports that the Russian aircraft had taken off. Although the Black Sea is confined waterspace, it is also 700 miles across at its widest point, so it is likely that a plane taking off from Russia would have had several hundred miles to fly in order to intercept the ship. This of course, depends on where it launched from. DONALD COOK also could have been alerted by electronic emissions from the FENCER’s onboard systems, which often are detected before radar contact is gained. It would be surprising indeed if DONALD COOK did not have “heads up” on the FENCER before it (the FENCER) was in position to do anything mischievous. That said, until someone put a pair of human eyes on the FENCER, that it was “unarmed” (as is reported) could not have been known. The FENCER would have been assumed to be armed. Often this visual confirmation is performed by a carrier based fighter jet (or in this geography, a land based jet), but there are no reports of there having been any U.S. jets involved in this scenario. Therefore, the “unarmed call” would have been made by a trained observer topside on the destroyer only when the FENCER had come within visual range—which is well inside its weapons release range. This certainly would have added to the tension, but once the “wings clean” report was received from the observer, tensions would have declined.

5. An attack on the DONALD COOK by the FENCER would have been illogical. It is logical that the Russians do not want war with us any more than we want war with them. The Russian pilot—unless he or she decided to act independently and crash the plane into the ship—was almost certainly under strict orders to avoid overtly provocative acts. For instance, we have reports that the FENCER passed at an altitude of 500 feet; if it got to 500 feet from a steep dive, this would be overtly provocative. More likely, the FENCER declined in altitude slowly, over time, in order NOT to be provocative. And while 1000 yards may seem close when one considers a jet moving at several hundred knots, it is still six ship lengths away from the DONALD COOK (or put another way, 45 DONALD COOKS in width). The closest point of approach to the ship was likely also something the pilot was ordered to observe. Given the illogic of an attack but the very clear logic of messaging and surveillance, the crew of DONALD COOK likely entered this situation with a bias toward it NOT being an attack. This should not be confused with it being “unready”. Quite the opposite. But it would have been looking for deviations from the expected such as deep dive angle, erratic maneuvering, and high rates of speed, to overturn the initial (correct) bias.

6. The SPY Radar adds interesting wrinkles. Some are familiar with the concept of “search” and “track” radars, in that search radars generally are lower frequency with greater range (and poorer accuracy); while track radars are higher frequency and are more accurate. In days past, a ship searched a given volume of airspace with one radar and then relied on the tracking radar to provide “fire control quality” data to the weapon system. The act of obtaining that data—illuminating the target with fire control radar—could under certain circumstances—be viewed by a fighter/attack jet as a hostile act to which it would then be obligated to respond. This is not the case with the SPY radar. If the SPY radar holds the track, then the track can be engaged—no additional tracking radar is required in order to fire the missile (although a high frequency “director” is used to illuminate the target during the final few seconds of missile flight). This is important because the FENCER pilot would have known the moment his onboard electronic sensors picked up the SPY radar transmission, that he or she was being tracked with sufficient accuracy to be shot down. This knowledge cannot be have made their flight terribly comfortable.

This sort of thing is likely to continue, and some behind the scenes discussions and coordination between the U.S. and Russia would be worthwhile. For the moment, my sense is that both sides realize what is at stake and are ensuring their tactical units are well-advised. So while it would be improper to overhype this incident, it would be just as improper not to view it with concern.

Reports from Slavyansk say that the army troops sent to the eastern Ukrainian city for an “anti-terrorist operation” are leaving en masse. Some troops are openly voicing support for the eastern Ukrainians, while others are speaking out against a war.

According to Interfax, citing local self-defense activists, some 300 Ukrainian troops agreed to lay down their weapons and “go home” following negotiations in Slavyansk.

Ukrainian soldiers,who's APCs were taken by protesters earlier today, leave Slovyansk. Some soldiers genuinely support protesters

— Ольга Ившина (@oivshina) April 16, 2014

“We managed to negotiate with them. About 300 military – only some of those who closed around the city – decided to lay down their arms and go home,” a self-defense activist was quoted as saying.

Conflicting reports are emerging about whether the activists would or would not allow the troops to keep their weapons and APCs. According to Western media journalists present at the scene, the locals would not allow them to take back the APCs surrendered earlier, but the soldiers were allowed to march away with their rifles.

The militia let departing Ukrainian soldiers keep their guns but not their APCs...

— Alec Luhn (@ASLuhn) April 16, 2014

Под крики "молодцы" украинские военных покидают Славянск. Оружие и техника осталась у протестующих pic.twitter.com/PiljiGCznA

— Ольга Ившина (@oivshina) April 16, 2014

Meanwhile, the anti-government activists guarding the armored vehicles have said that they did not “seize” them as the media claimed, and that the troops “switched sides” peacefully.

“They were not seized by the self-defense forces. In fact, the Ukrainian troops arrived here flying a Russian flag. In this way, they have taken the side of the people,” a Slavyansk activist told Russia-24 TV.

Photos from the scene now show women and children climbing onto the APCs and taking photos with the armed men in camouflage with St. George ribbons.



Photo from Twitter/@oivshina

Mood in Sloviansk totally relaxed, steady stream of parents taking pictures of their kids w/ militants . #Ukrainepic.twitter.com/KCU4xh2XsI

— Alexander Marquardt (@MarquardtA) April 16, 2014

 Frazzled wrote:
I'm reading that too.

Now I'm thinking, why does Russia even want these guys back???

 whembly wrote:
I saw a link on my twitter feed that I thought was interesting...

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Andrew1975 wrote:
I'm not sure if they were Russian Nukes, Ukrainian Nukes or just plain old Soviet Union Nukes, I don't know who had the launch codes, but it doesn't matter. Anyway you look at it, Nukes in Ukraine would have made this situation very very bad.

They were Soviet nukes. After 1991, they became Ukrainian nukes. Ukraine agreed to give up its nukes in return for Russian protection, and now they are Russian nukes.
And we should be grateful for that. I don't want to think about what could have happened if Pravyj Sektor or 'Svoboda' had gotten their hands on those nukes.

 Frazzled wrote:
I'm reading that too.

Now I'm thinking, why does Russia even want these guys back???

chaos0xomega wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Andrew1975 wrote:
I'm not sure if they were Russian Nukes, Ukrainian Nukes or just plain old Soviet Union Nukes, I don't know who had the launch codes, but it doesn't matter. Anyway you look at it, Nukes in Ukraine would have made this situation very very bad.

They were Soviet nukes. After 1991, they became Ukrainian nukes. Ukraine agreed to give up its nukes in return for Russian protection, and now they are Russian nukes.
And we should be grateful for that. I don't want to think about what could have happened if Pravyj Sektor or 'Svoboda' had gotten their hands on those nukes.

As opposed to Russian right-wing exteremists or ultranationalists getting their hands on Russian nukes? Russia hasn't been that much more stable than Ukraine until relatively recently, and even then there is still a risk of instability in Russia.

Jews ordered to register in east Ukraine

Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

Donetsk is the site of an "anti-terrorist" operation by the Ukraine government, which has moved military columns into the region to force out militants who are demanding a referendum be held on joining Russia.

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the report.

Pushilin acknowledged the flyers were distributed by his organization but he disavowed their content, according to the web site Jews of Kiev, Ynet reported.

Emanuel Shechter, in Israel, told Ynet his friends in Donetsk sent him a copy of the leaflet through social media.

"They told me that masked men were waiting for Jewish people after the Passover eve prayer, handed them the flyer and told them to obey its instructions," he said.

The leaflet begins, "Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality," and states that all people of Jewish descent over 16 years old must report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and "register."

It says the reason is because the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine supported Bendery Junta, a reference to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist movement that fought for Ukrainian independence at the end of World War II, "and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk," a name adopted by the militant leadership.

The leaflet then described which documents Jews should provide: "ID and passport are required to register your Jewish religion, religious documents of family members, as well as documents establishing the rights to all real estate property that belongs to you, including vehicles."

Consequences for non-compliance will result in citizenship bein g revoked "and you will be forced outside the country with a confiscation of property." A registration fee of $50 would be required, it said.

Olga Resnikova, 32, a Jewish resident of Donetsk, told Ynet she never experienced anti-Semitism in the city until she saw this leaflet.

"We don't know if these notifications were distributed by pro-Russian activists or someone else, but it's serious that it exists," she said. "The text reminds of the fascists in 1941," she said referring to the Nazis who occupied Ukraine during World War II.

 whembly wrote:
Um... wat? Didn't we see this movie before?

Jews ordered to register in east Ukraine

Jews in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where pro-Russian militants have taken over government buildings were told they have to "register" with the Ukrainians who are trying to make the city become part of Russia, according to Israeli media.

Jews emerging from a synagogue say they were handed leaflets that ordered the city's Jews to provide a list of property they own and pay a registration fee "or else have their citizenship revoked, face deportation and see their assets confiscated," reported Ynet News, Israel's largest news website.

Donetsk is the site of an "anti-terrorist" operation by the Ukraine government, which has moved military columns into the region to force out militants who are demanding a referendum be held on joining Russia.

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the report.

Pushilin acknowledged the flyers were distributed by his organization but he disavowed their content, according to the web site Jews of Kiev, Ynet reported.

Emanuel Shechter, in Israel, told Ynet his friends in Donetsk sent him a copy of the leaflet through social media.

"They told me that masked men were waiting for Jewish people after the Passover eve prayer, handed them the flyer and told them to obey its instructions," he said.

The leaflet begins, "Dear Ukraine citizens of Jewish nationality," and states that all people of Jewish descent over 16 years old must report to the Commissioner for Nationalities in the Donetsk Regional Administration building and "register."

It says the reason is because the leaders of the Jewish community of Ukraine supported Bendery Junta, a reference to Stepan Bandera, the leader of the Ukrainian nationalist movement that fought for Ukrainian independence at the end of World War II, "and oppose the pro-Slavic People's Republic of Donetsk," a name adopted by the militant leadership.

The leaflet then described which documents Jews should provide: "ID and passport are required to register your Jewish religion, religious documents of family members, as well as documents establishing the rights to all real estate property that belongs to you, including vehicles."

Consequences for non-compliance will result in citizenship bein g revoked "and you will be forced outside the country with a confiscation of property." A registration fee of $50 would be required, it said.

Olga Resnikova, 32, a Jewish resident of Donetsk, told Ynet she never experienced anti-Semitism in the city until she saw this leaflet.

"We don't know if these notifications were distributed by pro-Russian activists or someone else, but it's serious that it exists," she said. "The text reminds of the fascists in 1941," she said referring to the Nazis who occupied Ukraine during World War II.

 whembly wrote:
Jesus wept...

O.o

EDIT: we can only hope it's the fringiest-of-fringe then...