Hivefleet Oblivion wrote:

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Well this a dramatic but i don't think it changes anything. Not like Europe is going to enact sanctions for the same reasons they're not right now. They would do more harm to them than Russia. Just can't really think of any change this incident would start. 295 people are dead but the war goes on.

We'll see, won't we, but I would guess that if the early evidence that Russian-backed rebels were responsible is borne out, then this is a game -changer. There were 140 Dutch, plus many other Europeans on that flight; tougher sanctions or embargoes look inevitable.

 loki old fart wrote:

KommissarKarl wrote:

Oh aye. The EU has a stranglehold on Russia - we're the only place that they can buy first-world commodities - high-end tech from northern Europe, financial services from London - but anything we buy from Russia we can buy elsewhere, even if it does hit our pockets. It may hurt, but nothing like it would hurt Russia if all trade were to be suspended. And the Russian people would know exactly who to blame, too. Easy access to free media outlets means it's unlikely the Kremlin could pull off such a lie that had such huge ramifications.

What a load of rubbish. Have you ever looked on the back of these first world commodities. ?
Hint they're all made in china, or with Chinese parts. Anything they want or need can be bought from china.
That electricity you're using to post on dakka, generated using Russian gas. That computer you're using, Chinese parts.

 Jihadin wrote:

 Ensis Ferrae wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Jihadin wrote:
Iron. If I had a English version of a Dash 10. I would more likely have it moved, emplaced, and combat operational under maybe six hours. Longer if I have to put up camo nets

I still highly doubt it, but I believe you have military experience, whereas I do not, so I will take your word for it.

If this AA system is a piece of military hardware (which it is) the Technical Manual for it is almost always written in such a way that ANYONE can pick up the book, look in the table of contents, see the section that reads "Operations" flip there, and read/do each thing step by step, as it's read.

I know that US TMs are written to an "8th grade reading level" so I can only assume that other nations have done similar with their military equipment. This is especially true if this is Soviet era equipment, as that stuff was sold to all kinds of "uneducated" militant types.

I noticing that its not being mention in the news at all. Even those with military backgrounds seemed to have brain dump that piece of info

 Sigvatr wrote:
Seriously? The black box was given to RUSSIA? This is just beyond stupid.

Turns out, it was a US missile started from Washington to shoot it down.

Goddarn.

 loki old fart wrote:
That electricity you're using to post on dakka, generated using Russian gas. That computer you're using, Chinese parts.

 His Master's Voice wrote:

 Sigvatr wrote:
Seriously? The black box was given to RUSSIA? This is just beyond stupid.

Turns out, it was a US missile started from Washington to shoot it down.

Goddarn.

The boxes weren't given to Russia. Russia simply took them.

Expect conclusive evidence that it was an Ukrainian missile that downed the airliner within three weeks.

 His Master's Voice wrote:

 loki old fart wrote:
That electricity you're using to post on dakka, generated using Russian gas. That computer you're using, Chinese parts.

Less than a third of Europe's electricity is gas derived and those computer parts come from Taiwan, not mainland China. Assembling components is not the same as actually making them.

 His Master's Voice wrote:

 Sigvatr wrote:
Seriously? The black box was given to RUSSIA? This is just beyond stupid.

Turns out, it was a US missile started from Washington to shoot it down.

Goddarn.

The boxes weren't given to Russia. Russia simply took them.

Expect conclusive evidence that it was an Ukrainian missile that downed the airliner within three weeks.

 Kilkrazy wrote:
In some ways it makes more sense that a bunch of untrained guerillas working from a cartoon manual would shoot down a civilian airliner, mistaking it for a military transport. They probably would have no idea what the IFF transponder codes of the Boeing 777 mean. Just see a big target and hit the firing button.

 Seaward wrote:
The rebels have plenty of army deserters. The idea that they'd have guys who know how to run BUKs isn't exactly far-fetched.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Russia denies having black boxes or plans to seize them.
The seperatists have previously claimed to have found the flight recorders, but now the prime minister of Donetsk, Aleksandr Boroday, has just stated that whatever it was that his men found, it likely isn't the black box. Looks like it hasn't been found after all, and I am starting to suspect that our brave guerillas have no clue as to what a black box actually looks like. Maybe they think it is actually black?

 Iron_Captain wrote:
But you will have a hard time using that computer without someone to assemble it. And you can't deny the fact that a staggering amount of products in daily use has 'made in China' written on it.

 Soladrin wrote:

Also, a journalist form Russia Today quit her job because of the messages thet wanted her to say, so, that's a thing.

KommissarKarl wrote:
As always, Russia Today is a real treat. Check out their take on this here. Note how they never use the word "killed" or "dead", and never even mention that every single person on board died. On the other hand the Ukrainian government almost definitely shot it down...despite the fact that they'd have no need whatsoever to deploy anti-aircraft missiles, let alone indiscriminately firing one at a civilian airliner

 Jihadin wrote:
Iron. If I had a English version of a Dash 10. I would more likely have it moved, emplaced, and combat operational under maybe six hours. Longer if I have to put up camo nets

They are no more impartial than Ukrainian media is, who shout that Russia has shot down the plane.

Well, the US sanctions really are not doing much. Russia barely has any economic contacts with the US. The EU sanctions on the other hand are rather painful. Russia has a lot of trade with the EU (and the Netherlands especially), it makes up over half of Russia's total trade. Of course, the EU sanctions work both ways, but the EU has more available alternatives and a stronger internal market than Russia has.

Still, it is not a real recession, the Russian economy is still growing, albeit much slower than before. The Russian economy is more in danger of the other issues *cough*corruption*cough* listed in the article than it is has to fear any kind of sanctions.

so do you have anything other then wild conspiracy theories that Im a paid kremlen goon,

or are you too busy with being uninformed and so brainwashed that you just accused an article of "covering up" the fact that people died, despite the article clearly stating everyone died.

You would never ever think that somehow you were only looking at one side of the story, because that makes you a lousy putinista-nazi robot right?


beside which, my services of correcting you when you are wrong are free of charge, its a public service up here in canukistan. they do ration it a bit like health care, but grease the wheels with a few molsens and beaver pelts, and you can always get more.

that they might have one or two guys who can set it up yeah, but a stolen BUK would have been reported, or ukraine would be blaring a list of stolen ones by now, the only confirmed hardware in the region capable of it is in the hands of kievs military.

 MrDwhitey wrote:
I think the most pathetic, tasteless things that people could respond to that would be calling her "infected by western values/morals" or some gak.

This goes beyond the "I'm Pro Eastern!" or "I'm Pro Western!" bs.

 His Master's Voice wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Russia denies having black boxes or plans to seize them.
The seperatists have previously claimed to have found the flight recorders, but now the prime minister of Donetsk, Aleksandr Boroday, has just stated that whatever it was that his men found, it likely isn't the black box. Looks like it hasn't been found after all, and I am starting to suspect that our brave guerillas have no clue as to what a black box actually looks like. Maybe they think it is actually black?

Let me rephrase. IF Russia has the boxes, it's because it decided to take them in spite of international law.

chaos0xomega wrote:

KommissarKarl wrote:
As always, Russia Today is a real treat. Check out their take on this here. Note how they never use the word "killed" or "dead", and never even mention that every single person on board died. On the other hand the Ukrainian government almost definitely shot it down...despite the fact that they'd have no need whatsoever to deploy anti-aircraft missiles, let alone indiscriminately firing one at a civilian airliner

Wow, amazing article, no bias there at all, right Iron_Captain?

 Wyrmalla wrote:
Damn, what a bunch of snakes, that's what came to mind when the Russian ambassador to the UN finished his spiel. Naturally they have to deny they were involved with the plane crash, but hell, I guess the Russian government has so little respect for the international community that they can start calling them all liars as well.

 Wyrmalla wrote:
The Americans pointed out that the separatists immediately after the crash were on social media gloating about shooting down yet another military transport plane, but as soon as it came out it was a civilian one instead (and with advice from their Russian handlers) they removed those posts. Seeing a Russian launcher heading from the area sans a few missiles apparently isn't proof either (though the Russians are good at hiding evidence aren't they).

 Wyrmalla wrote:
It is a rather sorry state of affairs that people can lie through their teeth so blatantly (not just on this matter, the Russians have been at it throughout the whole war)

 Wyrmalla wrote:
I mean the Russian government aren't nice people at all (both on the foreign stage with their handling of Ukraine and Iran, and domestically with political repression and human rights abuses)

 Wyrmalla wrote:
but it is a rather odd to think countries can get away with this kind of crap

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
The Americans pointed out that the separatists immediately after the crash were on social media gloating about shooting down yet another military transport plane, but as soon as it came out it was a civilian one instead (and with advice from their Russian handlers) they removed those posts. Seeing a Russian launcher heading from the area sans a few missiles apparently isn't proof either (though the Russians are good at hiding evidence aren't they).

What Russian 'handlers'? What empty missile launcher? So far there is zero evidence for those accusations.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

But why would Russia even want those boxes? It would be bad for their reputation, and I doubt those recorders contain any sensitive information. It is not like the pilots had a chance to see where the missile was coming from or something like that.

Lots of bias. BIAS OVERLOAD!!!!!!!!!!!
Russian media sometimes wants to make me facepalm. Western media too, but this time it is the Russian media's propaganda that starts to annoy me. The aircraft being accidently shot down by seperatists is pretty much the most logical conclusion. The seperatists don't have any military aircraft for the Ukrainians to confuse with, and they wouldn't dare to shoot down a Russian plane, as that could be the end of Ukraine.
Yet somehow, Russian media stoically refuses to mention the possiblity that the seperatists did it, while constantly suggesting it was probably the Ukrainians.
I am pro-Russian, but this propaganda is going too far for me. They are lowering themselves to the Ukrainian's level now.

 Wyrmalla wrote:
Damn, what a bunch of snakes, that's what came to mind when the Russian ambassador to the UN finished his spiel. Naturally they have to deny they were involved with the plane crash, but hell, I guess the Russian government has so little respect for the international community that they can start calling them all liars as well. The Americans pointed out that the separatists immediately after the crash were on social media gloating about shooting down yet another military transport plane, but as soon as it came out it was a civilian one instead (and with advice from their Russian handlers) they removed those posts. Seeing a Russian launcher heading from the area sans a few missiles apparently isn't proof either (though the Russians are good at hiding evidence aren't they). It is a rather sorry state of affairs that people can lie through their teeth so blatantly (not just on this matter, the Russians have been at it throughout the whole war) and not have anything meaningful done to them that'll prove to be a deterrent. I suppose people don't want the Russians to be outright excluded from being a part of these discussions, despite them being the primary reason why nothing's been done in this situation through their vetos, as that would alienate the Russians further. I mean the Russian government aren't nice people at all (both on the foreign stage with their handling of Ukraine and Iran, and domestically with political repression and human rights abuses), but further limiting them on the world stage would just give Putin another excuse to set up the suedo empire he's been pandering after. The Western powers don't want a war, so we fall back to appeasement, but it is a rather odd to think countries can get away with this kind of crap, though I suppose that's more like the status quo (its not like the fall of the Eastern Bloc meant countries would suddenly stop being donkey caves to each other, or even would do it behind closed doors more often). Meh.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Welcome to realpolitik, tovarishch.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
What Russian 'handlers'? What empty missile launcher? So far there is zero evidence for those accusations.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
Damn, what a bunch of snakes, that's what came to mind when the Russian ambassador to the UN finished his spiel. Naturally they have to deny they were involved with the plane crash, but hell, I guess the Russian government has so little respect for the international community that they can start calling them all liars as well.

Aren't they? I am pretty sure the US, UK and other nations frequently tell lies as well.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
The Americans pointed out that the separatists immediately after the crash were on social media gloating about shooting down yet another military transport plane, but as soon as it came out it was a civilian one instead (and with advice from their Russian handlers) they removed those posts. Seeing a Russian launcher heading from the area sans a few missiles apparently isn't proof either (though the Russians are good at hiding evidence aren't they).

What Russian 'handlers'? What empty missile launcher? So far there is zero evidence for those accusations.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
It is a rather sorry state of affairs that people can lie through their teeth so blatantly (not just on this matter, the Russians have been at it throughout the whole war)

As have the Ukrainians.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
I mean the Russian government aren't nice people at all (both on the foreign stage with their handling of Ukraine and Iran, and domestically with political repression and human rights abuses)

They are very nice for Russians. The so-called repression and human rights abuses only target fringe elements of society and enjoy the support of a large majority of Russians.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 Wyrmalla wrote:
but it is a rather odd to think countries can get away with this kind of crap

Welcome to realpolitik, tovarishch.

Here’s what the shootdown of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 means: Russia, with Vladimir Putin at the wheel, just drove off the edge of a cliff.

Now, by this I don’t mean that the United States and the European Union are going to charge in with a new round of sanctions, provide lethal aid to Ukraine, patrol the skies of Ukraine, or anything of that nature. The West didn’t react in time, or with enough resolve, to the initial invasion and partition of Ukraine last spring, and there’s no reason to think our reaction will be any more effective or resolute this time. It would be reassuring to think America and Europe will now fully engage on the problem of Russian aggression, but it’s unlikely.

As far as Russia’s future is concerned, however, it doesn’t matter. The moment Flight 17 exploded was the moment that Putin’s foreign policy officially went over the ledge, and with it his dreams of restored Russian greatness.

Until now, Moscow claimed it was protecting the interests of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine. That was nonsense right from the start, but it was nonsense the Americans and Europeans decided they could live with, as galling as it was. (Who, after all, protects the rights of Russians in Russia? Certainly not Putin.) The West looked away as Putin seized Crimea, as we conveniently convinced ourselves that this was some odd ethnic quarrel in which we had no say. Now that a civilian airliner has been blown out of the sky by a Russian missile, however, there can be no further denial that Russia is actively pursuing a major proxy war against its neighbor in the center of Europe, and with a brutality that would make the now-departed marshals of the old Soviet high command smile with approval. This is no longer a war on Ukraine, but a war on the entire post-Cold War international order.

Putin, for his part, has already blamed Ukraine for the loss of the airliner in a careful, weird statement that makes no sense. His complaint, essentially, is that the authorities in Kyiv had the temerity to defend their country against Russia’s invasion and the daily, piecemeal dismantling of the Ukrainian state. With the exception of the usual Kremlin apologists (Professor Stephen Cohen dutifully carried this argument forward the night of the shootdown on Al Jazeera), no one is going to take that position seriously with 300 innocent people strewn all over the fields of eastern Ukraine.

Putin is deflecting blame, of course. He has no choice: he armed, paid, and unleashed a ragtag army of goons in eastern Ukraine, under the command of a Russian intelligence officer who was supposed to provide some adult supervision. Now they’ve betrayed the Kremlin and screwed up.

This leaves Putin with few options. He could admit that the plane was destroyed by the separatists he supports with weapons he provided, and thus confess that Russia itself is complicit in mass murder. Or he can claim that the downing took place without his knowledge or control, which means he will have to cop to providing sophisticated arms to a bunch of bloodthirsty stooges who don’t care who gets hurt. For now, he may have to cut the Russian separatists loose from Moscow, but given Putin’s history, he might also double down and dig in. Either way, the stink of this act will now irrevocably cling to the Russian Federation for as long as Putin is in charge, no matter what his rationalizations.

The Soviet Union – Putin’s first love – likewise never escaped the stain of the downing of a Korean passenger jet in 1983. Just as the Russian separatists are doing now, the Soviets tried to prevent access to the crash area, lied about their own actions, and then blamed others. Although the West imposed some nominal sanctions, the real price was paid in public diplomacy, because the Soviets never recovered an ability to push any further propaganda about their commitment to peace after an act of such savagery. Indeed, when the world erupted in anger, Soviet leader (and former KGB chief) Yuri Andropov was genuinely shocked. Like Putin, he and his comrades lived in a bubble in Moscow, and the public outcry only cemented the Soviet leadership’s paranoid conviction that the world was out to get the USSR. Putin, a typical and mediocre product of Andropov’s KGB, will likely react the same way.

Andropov didn’t have to live with opprobrium for long: he passed away less than six months after the KAL 007 disaster. Putin, however, is a relatively young, healthy man, and he will continue to occupy the world stage as Russia’s supreme ruler. But he will never again be able to portray himself as a savvy, cool broker in international affairs, nor Russia as just another great power. Now, he’s just another Soviet-era thug, a perception that was already growing before the Malaysian airliner plunged out of the sky. No matter how the current crisis ends, Putin’s name will forever be tied to this outrage, and his personal bid to create a more respected Russia through violence and intimidation is permanently defunct.

In the short term, the international community may not manage to muster sanctions against Russia that are any more effective than those imposed on the old USSR. But over the longer term, Putin has done far worse to his own country than any punishment we can levy. He has returned Russia to its cursed role as an international pariah, a country incapable of conducting itself without brutality and conquest. Putin’s Kremlin will likely pay only a modest price for now, but Russia and its people will have to bear the brunt of an increasing and corrosive isolation thrust upon them by their leader and his outdated Soviet fears and insecurities. If the Russian people one day find that NATO has renewed its purpose and that the globalized world community has moved on without them, they will have only Vladimir Putin to blame.

#1. His Will Is as Iron as Chalk

OK, so maybe Putin isn't some badass tiger-shooting warlord. At least he's the kind of leader who stands the ever-loving gak on his ground, unlike our pussy-ass president, who barely ever invades sovereign nations with no provocation.

It's been, like, a decade since any president did that.

Putin doesn't give an inch, and you have to respect him for that. Well, unless you're Chechnyan rebel leader Akhmad Kadyrov. Then Putin gives you a gakload of money in exchange for not fighting his soldiers anymore. American presidents in movies won't negotiate with terrorists, but Vladimir Putin is all about that gak. Alas, more than $100 billion in promised aid wasn't enough to buy Putin much of anything: Kadyrov was assassinated in 2004. Apparently paying off one angry guy doesn't make his still-poor friends any less angry.

You can slap together as many macros as you want, but it won't change the fact that Vladimir Putin has exactly two strategies for dealing with adversity: throwing money at it, and throwing the Russian army at it. Yes, "the Russian army" sounds terrifying -- if you're anything like me*, you read those words in the voice of Patrick Swayze's character from Red Dawn, and you briefly hallucinated newsreel footage of the Red Army's endless columns of tanks and infantry.

*If you are anything like me, that happens on a regular basis no matter what you do.

Well the Russian army still has those big columns of men and tanks, and that's sort of exactly the damn problem. Putin's military is built around fighting the kind of war we fought in 1945, and billions of dollars in reform haven't fixed that yet. Russia still drafts, because she "cannot afford to create a fully professional army." That quote comes from Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov, not some foreign journalists, although those journalists did talk to a soldier in one of Russia's few elite "professional" soldiering units, who reported an astonishing two shooting drills per year.

Putin has a scary-looking face and billions of dollars in PR to make him look the part of a proper Bond villain. But remember: fething Hollywood invented Bond villains.