Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!

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**Ketara**

Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Ketara wrote:
It appears Putin is making his move. Poroshenko has gambled, and lost this round. Such a pity.

Please elaborate. Has something new happened? Are more Russian troops turning up in Ukraine?

You could say that. Just replace 'troops' with 'tanks, infantry, and artillery'.

Iron_Captain wrote:Russia still denies the presence of its troops in the Ukraine.
The seperatists however have launched a major counter-offensive. They have captured a lot of territory in the past few days.

Russia denies their presence because it strings things out. Russia also denied the presence of troops in Crimea until it became convenient to acknowledge them. A Russian denial, alas, does not necessarily equate to truth. And the truth here is that the Russians are starting to push back the Ukrainians. Not the Donetsk rebels.

To quote the Lithuanian Ambassador on the subject:-

"An invasion is an invasion is an invasion."

To put in a spot of analysis, there's a reason for Putin not acknowledging this as an official war/invasion. It would seem to indicate that he's planning on pushing the Ukrainians back to the borders of Donetsk/Luhansk regions (maybe a few kilometres beyond), and halting there. He's not going to try for all of Ukraine(unless Ukraine collapses, in which case the situation changes), or he'd be announcing it to the world right now. He'll establish Donetsk control over those regions, and set up a puppet state.

But he won't be able to maintain his pretence of 'No Russians involved' for long, before the Ukrainians gather sufficient evidence the Russian forces are Russian forces. He'll need to achieve his goal within the next week, to week and a half. Speed will be of the essence.

Poroshenko was gambling that Putin would back down rather than becoming so overt, based on Putin's habitual actions as an opportunist so far. He gambled, and he lost. He thought the Russian troops re-established over the border were just intimidation, and that they'd stay still while he dealt with the Donetsk rebels. He was wrong, and now he will most likely lose Donetsk/Luhansk over it. What's more, he'll lose most of his country's industry with them. Ukraine will be economically crippled after this.

Fracking idiot. I know he was under pressure to take his course of action from his government's disposition, and that was why he dissolved them and launched elections. But too little, too late. He's screwed his country through his bad reading of the situation.

**Jihadin**

I'm waiting on volunteers from the Russian military to go assist the Sep's

**PhantomViper**

Frazzled wrote:
I share Obama's "meh."

I'm all for America staying out of other people's business, this should be primarily a EU problem, but don't you guys (and the Brits) have a defence agreement with Ukraine made for just this occasion?

It sends a pretty strong message to everyone, including the wrong people, when the supposedly "good guys" don't keep up with their word, especially when they specifically state that they will defend someone from invasion and then just shrug when said invasion happens.

**reds8n**

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/29/russia-ukraine-war-asking

In early spring, Russian president Vladimir Putin deployed soldiers without insignia into the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea to ensure a quick annexation of the territory.

After a month of denying their existence, the Russian president acknowledged that the thousands of well-armed fighters, who had previously been referred to as “little green men”, were in fact Russian troops.

Decried in the west, Russians gave the move near unanimous support. A territory was won through military might – and an overwhelming referendum vote that has not been recognised in the west – but without a fight.

Now, as Moscow apparently reinvigorates a flailing pro-Russian separatist insurgency with a barely concealed incursion into south-eastern Ukraine, indications are that Russian military men are dying. And as captured Russian paratroopers are paraded on Ukrainian television and servicemen are buried in secrecy, some Russians are asking a seemingly simple question: “are we at war?”

No information

The answer to the question, posed this week in an editorial in the business daily newspaper Vedomosti, is one that is becoming increasingly obvious for military families. It is the details that they say are not forthcoming.

In Kostroma, 1,300km from Russia’s border with eastern Ukraine, family members of a group of 10 Russian paratroopers captured in Ukraine say all their information has come from secondhand, online sources.

One mother, Olga Pochtoyeva, says when she approached officials with photos on the social media site Vkontakte that appeared to show her son had been taken prisoner in Ukraine, her claims were dismissed as “provocations.”

“We showed them [these pictures] and they didn’t believe it,” she says. “It’s Photoshop, they told us. I’m sorry, I’d never mistake my son’s eyebrows for Photoshop.”

The paratroopers, who have been paraded in front of cameras by Ukrainian authorities at least three times, are only the most public face of Russian military involvement.

Members of Russia’s presidential council on human rights has asked for an investigation into the deaths of nine military contractors, while the Stavropol Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers has compiled a list of 400 Russian troops it says have recently been either killed or wounded.

The claims come amid evidence of secret funerals for Russian servicemen, reports of which began with small drips of information from Pskov, a small city in northern Russia.

On 25 August families buried Leonid Kichatkin and Aleksandr Osipov, two Russian paratroopers from a regiment based in the city. Some of the brigade’s gear and documents had been spotted by Ukrainian journalists days earlier in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine.

State media did not cover the funerals and independent reporters who had come to inspect the paratroopers’ gravestones were accosted by unidentified men.

“It was more like a threat than any sort of demand,” Ilya Vasyunin, a journalist for the online Russian Planet news site, told RFE/RL’s Russian Service. “They wanted to make sure we understood that there was no need to visit the cemetery or dig any deeper into the situation.”

The names on the gravestones, which showed the dates of death as 19 and 20 August, have since reportedly been removed.

There has been a near complete blackout in coverage of the funerals by Russia’s state-controlled media and a message on Kichatkin’s VKontakte page saying that the serviceman had been killed, apparently written by his wife, has been removed. The families have since been unwilling to speak with media.

More funerals

Meanwhile, reports of new funerals continue.

On 25 August, Anton Korolenko, a commander – apparently from the same Pskov-based paratrooper division – was buried in Voronezh. A local journalist told RFE/RL’s Russian Service that an unidentified family member had claimed the circumstances behind his death were “secret” but that “he did not die in vain”.

And in Russia’s Urals republic of Bashkortostan, the mother of Marsel Arattanov told the independent Dozhd TV station that she had buried her son on 22 August after being ordered by the authorities to claim his body in Rostov, a Russian city near the border with Ukraine. “He was not on our territory when he died,” Venera Arattanova said. “We have heard that they went to Ukrainian territory.”

Asked about the funerals, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, told the Itar-Tassn ews agency the information was “being checked by the agencies concerned”.

A Nato official said on 28 August that more than 1,000 Russian soldiers were serving with separatists in Ukraine. The head of the Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, Valentina Melnikova, said the number was as high as 15,000. And Alexander Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, admitted that there were members of the Russian military serving with the rebels, though he said they had come during their “vacations.”

Although Russians have been largely supportive of pro-Russian separatists, a survey conducted by the government-backed Public Opinion Foundation found that just five per cent of respondents would favour sending troops into Ukraine.

Families of soldiers still unaccounted for fear the worst. “It’s absolutely ridiculous,” says Ella Polyakova, a member of Putin’s advisory council on human rights, who so far has been unsuccessful in using official channels to gather information. “People are demanding answers – where are their sons?”

Dreadfully sad business not to know how one's loved ones are doing.

**Iron_Captain**

Jihadin wrote:
I'm waiting on volunteers from the Russian military to go assist the Sep's

They have been there from the beginning. There is lots of Russian volunteers, some of them have a military background. There are some Serbs as well, who are of course veterans of the wars there. There is a few Greeks as well, and there are a lot of Belarusians, most of whom fight for the seperatists, but there are a few Belarusians on the Ukrainian side as well. Most volunteers on the Ukrainian side are from the Baltic states and Poland.

**Easy E**

Kind of reminds me the shenanigans in the inter-war years of 1918 through 1938.

**Dreadclaw69**

reds8n wrote:
One mother, Olga Pochtoyeva, says when she approached officials with photos on the social media site Vkontakte that appeared to show her son had been taken prisoner in Ukraine, her claims were dismissed as “provocations.”

“We showed them [these pictures] and they didn’t believe it,” she says. “It’s Photoshop, they told us. I’m sorry, I’d never mistake my son’s eyebrows for Photoshop.”

How distinctive were her son's eyebrows?

**reds8n**

Yeah that is a bit odd.

Russian branch of the Gallagher clan one surmises.

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Gallagher%20Brows

**elotar**

Ketara wrote:
He's screwed his country through his bad reading of the situation.

You really don't get the game Poroshenko is playing. Russian special forces and intelligence operatives was in Donbass region from the beginning of the whole situation and campain of armed ocupation of the government buildings wasn't just in Donezk and Lugansk regions, but spreading rapidly with no end in sight. All this was accomplished with the official position of Russia, that Ukranian givernment got no right to exists and that there are no such nation as Ukranians at all. And you have to understand, it's not was like Putin sad "I don't like Ukranians" and everibody was like "meh" - it was main topic of all news programs/sites/papers, there was "documentaries" about ukranian atrosities from the present to the medieval times, all(!) politicians, actors and other media-persons was making some anti-ukranian speeches (or dissapiar from media), we even got some anti-ukranian child model shows! My 60 year old acquaintance, who had worked for several years in soviet newspaper at the 80-s, said that even at thouse times there was no such crasy ideology campains.

So the problem was not only the russian involvement, but that after brodcasting "ukranians are eating children for breakfast, every breakfast" it will be impossible for "Putin" (as a collective term for Russian rulling clique), to stop supporting "separatists" without terribly losing face. And, obviously, Ukrane, as much smaller country in dire economic conditions, cannot cope with Russia.

So the main goal of Poroshenko was (and is) to organize international pressure on Russia, which will be more severe, than possible domestic backslash for "betraying russian people". And because international community demands "decisive evidence of russian involvement", ignoring by the same time all the evidence which are provided, he is upping the stakes, untill it'll be impossible to neglect.

In this strategy direct invasion with russian regular army forces is quite "according to plan". As I see, even having several battalions surrounded and in general retreat, ukranian leadership is not making any attepts to negotiate the cease fire or smth.

I think If it'll not work (UN Seccon meeting was kinda not interested), than there will be no baking up from both sides and we'll have large scale heavy weapon ingagement in the european region with millions of civilian population, chemical plants and nuclear power stations.

After it got no idea, how can it end, but I'm sure, eyebrow jokes will not be looking so fun.

**Dreadclaw69**

elotar wrote:
After it got no idea, how can it end, but I'm sure, eyebrow jokes will not be looking so fun.

They won't be if you can't see out from under them

**Iron_Captain**

elotar wrote:
Ketara wrote:
He's screwed his country through his bad reading of the situation.

You really don't get the game Poroshenko is playing. Russian special forces and intelligence operatives was in Donbass region from the beginning of the whole situation and campain of armed ocupation of the government buildings wasn't just in Donezk and Lugansk regions, but spreading rapidly with no end in sight. All this was accomplished with the official position of Russia, that Ukranian givernment got no right to exists and that there are no such nation as Ukranians at all. And you have to understand, it's not was like Putin sad "I don't like Ukranians" and everibody was like "meh" - it was main topic of all news programs/sites/papers, there was "documentaries" about ukranian atrosities from the present to the medieval times, all(!) politicians, actors and other media-persons was making some anti-ukranian speeches (or dissapiar from media), we even got some anti-ukranian child model shows! My 60 year old acquaintance, who had worked for several years in soviet newspaper at the 80-s, said that even at thouse times there was no such crasy ideology campains.

So the problem was not only the russian involvement, but that after brodcasting "ukranians are eating children for breakfast, every breakfast" it will be impossible for "Putin" (as a collective term for Russian rulling clique), to stop supporting "separatists" without terribly losing face. And, obviously, Ukrane, as much smaller country in dire economic conditions, cannot cope with Russia.

So the main goal of Poroshenko was (and is) to organize international pressure on Russia, which will be more severe, than possible domestic backslash for "betraying russian people". And because international community demands "decisive evidence of russian involvement", ignoring by the same time all the evidence which are provided, he is upping the stakes, untill it'll be impossible to neglect.

In this strategy direct invasion with russian regular army forces is quite "according to plan". As I see, even having several battalions surrounded and in general retreat, ukranian leadership is not making any attepts to negotiate the cease fire or smth.

I think If it'll not work (UN Seccon meeting was kinda not interested), than there will be no baking up from both sides and we'll have large scale heavy weapon ingagement in the european region with millions of civilian population, chemical plants and nuclear power stations.

After it got no idea, how can it end, but I'm sure, eyebrow jokes will not be looking so fun.

Eyebrow jokes are always funny, altough I think his eyebrows could have been worse:

Spoiler:

But got to have something to laugh about when the news is grim.

**Ahtman**

Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

**Soladrin**

Ahtman wrote:
Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

**Iron_Captain**

Ahtman wrote:
Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

My favourite two quotes from this interview:
-'Anything US touches turns into Libya or Iraq'
-‘If these are European values, I’m badly disappointed’

Think of Putin what you want, but he is a good speaker.

**Soladrin**

Iron_Captain wrote:
Ahtman wrote:
Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

My favourite two quotes from this interview:
-'Anything US touches turns into Libya or Iraq'
-‘If these are European values, I’m badly disappointed’

Think of Putin what you want, but he is a good speaker.

... You are easily impressed.

**Iron_Captain**

Soladrin wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
Ahtman wrote:
Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

My favourite two quotes from this interview:
-'Anything US touches turns into Libya or Iraq'
-‘If these are European values, I’m badly disappointed’

Think of Putin what you want, but he is a good speaker.

... You are easily impressed.

When it is Putin, yes.

'Oh Vladimir Vladimirovich! You are so... impressive!'

**BaronIveagh**

Regardless of the egos involved, if these casualty reports and numbers estimates are in the ballpark, the Russians are not doing very well, despite their advances.

My estimate is that his endgame is a land corridor connecting Russia and Crimea.

**Shadow Captain Edithae**

Soladrin wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
Ahtman wrote:
Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

My favourite two quotes from this interview:
-'Anything US touches turns into Libya or Iraq'
-‘If these are European values, I’m badly disappointed’

Think of Putin what you want, but he is a good speaker.

... You are easily impressed.

Putin's right though, in those two quotes at least.

We (UK, USA and pals) don't have a good track record in intervention.

And our values are inconsistent at best...

Torture and other Human Rights abuses.
~~Extraordinary rendition.~~ Kidnapping.
Funding and supporting violent groups (we wanted to support the Syrian rebels against the Assad regime...Guess who was among them?).
Mass surveillance without warrant or judicial oversight.
Erosion of civil liberties. (e.g. Long term detention without charge).
Abuse of Anti Terrorism laws (Local Councils using them to put residents under surveillance).

This may be the Devil calling the Demon immoral...but doesn't mean its not true.

**loki old fart**

Would the USA or Europe give a damn about the Ukraine without the natural gas that's there.?
http://iakal.wordpress.com/2014/08/05/the-energy-war-between-u-s-a-and-russia-and-the-threat-for-israels-survival/

Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:
Soladrin wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote:
Ahtman wrote:
Our weekly supplement of saber rattling has arrived!

Don't mess with nuclear Russia, Putin says

He is just a simple man trying to get through this crazy world we live in.

My favourite two quotes from this interview:
-'Anything US touches turns into Libya or Iraq'
-‘If these are European values, I’m badly disappointed’

Think of Putin what you want, but he is a good speaker.

... You are easily impressed.

Putin's right though, in those two quotes at least.

We (UK, USA and pals) don't have a good track record in intervention.

And our values are inconsistent at best...

Torture and other Human Rights abuses.
~~Extraordinary rendition.~~ Kidnapping.
Funding and supporting violent groups (we wanted to support the Syrian rebels against the Assad regime...Guess who was among them?).
Mass surveillance without warrant or judicial oversight.
Erosion of civil liberties. (e.g. Long term detention without charge).
Abuse of Anti Terrorism laws (Local Councils using them to put residents under surveillance).

This may be the Devil calling the Demon immoral...but doesn't mean its not true.

That's whats annoying, it is true.

Please don't attach non wargaming files to Dakka.
reds8n

**BaronIveagh**

Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

Putin's right though, in those two quotes at least.

We (UK, USA and pals) don't have a good track record in intervention.

And our values are inconsistent at best...

Torture and other Human Rights abuses.
~~Extraordinary rendition.~~ Kidnapping.
Funding and supporting violent groups (we wanted to support the Syrian rebels against the Assad regime...Guess who was among them?).
Mass surveillance without warrant or judicial oversight.
Erosion of civil liberties. (e.g. Long term detention without charge).
Abuse of Anti Terrorism laws (Local Councils using them to put residents under surveillance).

This may be the Devil calling the Demon immoral...but doesn't mean its not true.

The question is, which is better, countries who know it';s wrong, but, sadly, occasionally necessary, or countries who seem almost proud to do all of those things?

BTW: the third one: if you guessed ISIS, you guessed wrong.

**Ahtman**

loki old fart wrote:
Would the USA or Europe give a damn about the Ukraine without the natural gas that's there.?

Would you care if a random stranger is mugged only because he has something important to you? Self interest isn't necessarily a vice. I also think we would care, just not enough to do anything about it; having a vested interest in the area increases the likelihood of doing more then complaining, though not by much at this point.

**BaronIveagh**

Here's something to think on: When the US invoked Article 5 following 9/11, the Ukraine was one of very few nations to offer troops that was not obligated to do so.

For those of you who served in Afghanistan (and this is more directed to the EU guys here), if you know anyone who was patched up by NATO forces in Ghor, they probably owe their ass to a Ukrainian medic.

So, just something to chew on, that next time it might be Germany, the UK, or even the US asking for help.

**loki old fart**

BaronIveagh wrote:
Here's something to think on: When the US invoked Article 5 following 9/11, the Ukraine was one of very few nations to offer troops that was not obligated to do so.

For those of you who served in Afghanistan (and this is more directed to the EU guys here), if you know anyone who was patched up by NATO forces in Ghor, they probably owe their ass to a Ukrainian medic.

So, just something to chew on, that next time it might be Germany, the UK, or even the US asking for help.

Yes but that was the pre-maiden government, or was that your point.?

**AlmightyWalrus**

loki old fart wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Here's something to think on: When the US invoked Article 5 following 9/11, the Ukraine was one of very few nations to offer troops that was not obligated to do so.

For those of you who served in Afghanistan (and this is more directed to the EU guys here), if you know anyone who was patched up by NATO forces in Ghor, they probably owe their ass to a Ukrainian medic.

So, just something to chew on, that next time it might be Germany, the UK, or even the US asking for help.

Yes but that was the pre-maiden government, or was that your point.?

According to Wiki at least, Anatoliy Kinakh was acting Prime Minister of Ukraine on September 11, 2001. As far as I've been able to discern, he has no connections to Yanukovych whatsoever. You're right in that it was the "pre-Maidan government", but only in the sense that the events we're talking about happened in 2001, and as such would be pre-Maidan by definition. The pre-Maidan government led by Yanukovych, however, didn't exist in September 2001 and as such can't have been responsible.

**Iron_Captain**

AlmightyWalrus wrote:
loki old fart wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Here's something to think on: When the US invoked Article 5 following 9/11, the Ukraine was one of very few nations to offer troops that was not obligated to do so.

For those of you who served in Afghanistan (and this is more directed to the EU guys here), if you know anyone who was patched up by NATO forces in Ghor, they probably owe their ass to a Ukrainian medic.

So, just something to chew on, that next time it might be Germany, the UK, or even the US asking for help.

Yes but that was the pre-maiden government, or was that your point.?

According to Wiki at least, Anatoliy Kinakh was acting Prime Minister of Ukraine on September 11, 2001. As far as I've been able to discern, he has no connections to Yanukovych whatsoever. You're right in that it was the "pre-Maidan government", but only in the sense that the events we're talking about happened in 2001, and as such would be pre-Maidan by definition. The pre-Maidan government led by Yanukovych, however, didn't exist in September 2001 and as such can't have been responsible.

In 2001, it would have been the government of good old Leonid Kuchma, by far the best president the Ukraine has ever had. He managed to be both pro-Russian and pro-Western at the same time. Nobody could balance between the two sides of Ukraine like he could, and he still is the only Ukrainian president that has ever been elected to a second term (not counting Yanukovich's 2004 election). Unfortenately he became involved in a lot of corruption scandals.

**Frazzled**

BaronIveagh wrote:
Regardless of the egos involved, if these casualty reports and numbers estimates are in the ballpark, the Russians are not doing very well, despite their advances.

My estimate is that his endgame is a land corridor connecting Russia and Crimea.

Thats stage II.

Stage III is the eastern 1/3 to 1/2 of Ukraine. Stage III will be completed within December 2014 to June 2015 at the latest.

**BaronIveagh**

Governments, well, good governments, anyway, are an extension of the will of the people.

The issue is that we have all been here before, gentlemen, and as before, men argue for appeasement and sell their allies to avoid war.

"The relief that our escape from this great peril of war has, I think, everywhere been mingled in this country with a profound feeling of sympathy." - Neville Chamberlain.

How'd that turn out for ya?:

Coventry

Rotterdam

Pearl Harbor

**Iron_Captain**

BaronIveagh wrote:
Governments, well, good governments, anyway, are an extension of the will of the people.

The issue is that we have all been here before, gentlemen, and as before, men argue for appeasement and sell their allies to avoid war.

Since when did Ukraine suddenly become an 'ally'?
Also, the amount of godwin in this thread (and Western media) is over 9000. I am pretty sure that unlike Hitler, Putin has no evil plans for world domination and genocidal campaigns to exterminate all non-Russians. And neither is he preparing an invasion of Poland.
I will also tell you that only because appeasement failed once, doesn't mean it will never work. We are dealing with a vastly different situation here that bears no resemblence to WW2.
Making such comparisons is silly, and only illustrates your lack of knowledge about this conflict.

**AlmightyWalrus**

Iron_Captain wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Governments, well, good governments, anyway, are an extension of the will of the people.

The issue is that we have all been here before, gentlemen, and as before, men argue for appeasement and sell their allies to avoid war.
Since when did Ukraine suddenly become an 'ally'?
Also, the amount of godwin in this thread (and Western media) is over 9000.

Considering the whole "neo-Nazis in Kiev" Russian media has/had going on, that's rather rich.

**Redcruisair**

Iron_Captain wrote:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Governments, well, good governments, anyway, are an extension of the will of the people.

The issue is that we have all been here before, gentlemen, and as before, men argue for appeasement and sell their allies to avoid war.
Since when did Ukraine suddenly become an 'ally'?
Also, the amount of godwin in this thread (and Western media) is over 9000.

The pot calling the kettle black.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28985715