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2015/03/30 13:02:07
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Iron_Captain wrote: If the Russian military was actually deployed to Ukraine in the numbers that are suggested, the situation would be very different, and not with the Ukrainian Army a few kilometers from Donetsk.
Given the scope of the fighting, 15k men isn't that many.
Also, every time it seems that the Ukrainian forces are about to make meaningful gains in ground the separatists suddenly manage to launch a highly successful counter attack and regain that ground.
Also, you're assuming that Putin wants the separatists to "win". It is entirely possible that his plan is just to drag the fighting out, keeping the Ukrainians close to securing Donetsk but aplying the necessary force to prevent them from achieving that goal. This keeps Ukraine stuck in a messy civil war which will prevent them from being able to join the EU or NATO or whatever it is that Putin is scared of.
Oh really? Than maybe you can explain how come the seperatists have lost over half their territory since the war started?
Spoiler:
BaronIveagh wrote:
Iron_Captain wrote: He would have a clear motive for making up or misrepresenting such a story. I am not saying he did, but it is possible. It would not be the first time liberals did something like that.
The problem is that all information that would indicate Russian soldiers are fighting in Ukraine I have seen so far comes from biased sources that have a clear interest in those stories.
you haven;t noticed that at this point there's no impartial news? Every media source in Russia right now has a vested interest in either promoting or suppressing these stories?
Pretty much, yes. And that makes determining the truth almost impossible and highly subjective to political opinion.
But as seen with the wars in Chechnya and Georgia, those organisations do not work very well. The covering up system has always worked well. Why would they suddenly stop using it? Why would they inform families and bring back bodies to Russia? It would be very easy not to notify anyone and bury the dead in Ukraine.
I think the answer is quite obvious: Everyone got wise to how it worked because of the wars in Georgia and Chechnya. There was not a lot of back and forth action in South Ossetia. There is in the Ukraine. The longer something goes on, the harder it is to keep it under wraps.
No they did not. The cover up system they used in Chechnya worked well. No one still knows the truth about the gak that happened in Chechnya, what is true and what is not and how many people died there. Journalists who nose around Chechnya too much are often killed, even now the conflict has ended. There is no reason why they would suddenly start sending bodies home instead of burying them locally. Georgia was a pushover, it was over very fast and not many people died, but the Georgian army was very well trained (by the US) and equipped compared to the Ukrainian army. If the Russian army is indeed deployed in numbers up to 15.000 (which is more than the 10.000 that were deployed in Ossetia during the Georgian War) than why do they have so much trouble with the Ukrainian Army?
You could say they have changed into less suspicious uniforms, but why did they bother doing that if they are not even taking their markings off vehicles?
I got the impression that the actions around 20 August of last year were somewhat impromptu. Remember at the same time as the 76th got hammered, another group of paratroopers 'lost their way' and crossed into the Ukraine as well.
Yes, but they just barged in wearing full uniforms and did not resist at all when they met Ukrainian troops. The Russian government immediately admitted they were actual Russian soldiers. It is quite likely they indeed lost their way, which is not uncommon, it happens the other way around as well. There have been quite a lot of accidental and also deliberate border crossings by Ukrainian troops.
Also, if the Russian army is involved, than why do the seperatists have it so difficult? The Ukrainian army (if you can even call it that) is in a horrible state. The vast majority of their vehicles has not been maintained since 1991 and is inoperable, a significant part of their standing army has defected, taking equipment with it, they continue to have huge problems with desertion and finding enough conscripts, who are then rushed to the front without training.
I've been watching the posted desertion numbers. It's hard to tell the reality there. The Ukrainians admit they have a problem with it, but the Russians over inflate it staggeringly (to the degree it reminds me of the US counting chickens as VC KIA). I also have to ask what you consider significant, btw. If you're referring to the RT thing about Ukrainian military crossing over into Russia to defect in their hundreds, btw, you'd be wrong, that story turned out to be untrue.
37% of those conscripted have failed to turn up. Again, that's not too bad for a Civil War. The reason neitehr side has won yet is the same old issue you run into in every civil war: the locals turn out with kitchen knives at night. (usually figuratively, but sometimes literally)
Iron_Captain wrote: If the Russian military was actually deployed to Ukraine in the numbers that are suggested, the situation would be very different, and not with the Ukrainian Army a few kilometers from Donetsk.
Given the scope of the fighting, 15k men isn't that many.
It is when you consider the fact that the entire seperatist strenght is estimated at 10.000 to 20.000. The scope of the fighting is not that large, given that it is very low intensity most of the time and centered around a few villages/towns.
In the meantime some people in the West estimate that there are up to 42.000 Russian troops fighting in Ukraine, which would be a very significant part of Russia's standing army. I hope I don't have to explain to you how utterly ridiculous such a claim is.
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2015/03/30 23:32:50
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Oh really? Than maybe you can explain how come the seperatists have lost over half their territory since the war started?
They started out holding more on paper than in reality? At the start of a civil war, typically the claim of having a territory means that three guys in a jeep rode up, unfurled a flag, and then drove off. Then you find out you're over extended, lack local support, so on and so forth, and the territory contracts to what you can actually hold.
No they did not. The cover up system they used in Chechnya worked well. No one still knows the truth about the gak that happened in Chechnya, what is true and what is not and how many people died there. Journalists who nose around Chechnya too much are often killed, even now the conflict has ended. There is no reason why they would suddenly start sending bodies home instead of burying them locally. Georgia was a pushover, it was over very fast and not many people died, but the Georgian army was very well trained (by the US) and equipped compared to the Ukrainian army. If the Russian army is indeed deployed in numbers up to 15.000 (which is more than the 10.000 that were deployed in Ossetia during the Georgian War) than why do they have so much trouble with the Ukrainian Army?
More people, more cameras, more civilian traffic, more reporters on the scene the Russians can't control. Plus too many of their fellow Russians standing around seeing things to effectively silence everyone.
Chechnya has only a small boarder with anyone other than Russia, and that's high in the mountains. It's easy to control who goes in, and comes out. Their telcom industry was practically medieval at the time (And probably still is) and was also easily cut off. Generally they're hated by the Russians, and thus anything they say is more suspect.
Georgia was more modern, but was over very quickly and left the Russians in charge of the area the fighting took place in.
Ukraine is both fairly modern, large, and has big, friendly boarders for reporters and such to come and go. Their army HAS been able to push back and retake ground, and unlike the other two, other countries around them give a damn about what happens. Worse, the UN monitors are poking their noses in every grave they see, due to Russia's own allegations of war crimes against the Ukraine. and there is tremendous international scrutiny, far more so than Georgia or Chechnya.
Can you imagine the stink if they open graves and find someone's overlooked dog tags? Or the forensic anthropologists test them and find they all came from the same military base in Russia (yes, you can do that now)? They can put a name to a corpse after 100 years in the ground these days, with a few months and good labs.
Iron_Captain wrote: Yes, but they just barged in wearing full uniforms and did not resist at all when they met Ukrainian troops. The Russian government immediately admitted they were actual Russian soldiers. It is quite likely they indeed lost their way, which is not uncommon, it happens the other way around as well. There have been quite a lot of accidental and also deliberate border crossings by Ukrainian troops.
Actually they initially denied it, then admitted it. And, frankly, i think the fact that they immediately surrendered rather than attempt to engage is probably the difference between the two official responses.
I don't think I understand the saying in the second part of your post, but when 37% of your army fails to show up (on top of the desertions of those who do show up and the defections of many who joined the Army before the conflict) you have a big problem.
Desertions are, officially, at least, currently fairly low. I attribute it to the guys who were going to desert already have, and that men attempting to can now be shot. Which, before you go on a rant about how barbaric that is, actually it's fairly common in armies that if you try to desert in the face of the enemy, you can be shot.
And, no, 37% is fairly good. Compare it to other civil wars and their rates of people dodging the draft, those are good solid numbers that show a lot of people turning out to fight. Lincoln would have strangled someone for numbers that good in the US Civil War. I think I pointed out earlier they drafted something like 400k and had 20k show up in one draft.
It is when you consider the fact that the entire separatist strength is estimated at 10.000 to 20.000.
Unfortunately that depends on who's doing the estimating. I've head numbers as low as 2 thousand, and has high as one hundred thousand. Most seem to bobble around 30-50k with an additional 3 to 50 thousand Russian troops. The numbers for the Ukrainian military also seem to fluctuate wildly.
My theory is that the Ukrainian military has higher numbers, while the Separatists have better gear and some Russian support.
I laughed my ass off when TASS ran a story that NATO had 50k troops on the Ukrainian boarder with Russia. They pulled it within two hours. Seems that someone pointed out that they mistranslated what was actually said by NATO.
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
2015/03/31 00:52:56
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Oh really? Than maybe you can explain how come the seperatists have lost over half their territory since the war started?
They started out holding more on paper than in reality? At the start of a civil war, typically the claim of having a territory means that three guys in a jeep rode up, unfurled a flag, and then drove off. Then you find out you're over extended, lack local support, so on and so forth, and the territory contracts to what you can actually hold.
Actually, there was very fierce fighting for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk before the Seperatists were driven back.
No they did not. The cover up system they used in Chechnya worked well. No one still knows the truth about the gak that happened in Chechnya, what is true and what is not and how many people died there. Journalists who nose around Chechnya too much are often killed, even now the conflict has ended. There is no reason why they would suddenly start sending bodies home instead of burying them locally. Georgia was a pushover, it was over very fast and not many people died, but the Georgian army was very well trained (by the US) and equipped compared to the Ukrainian army. If the Russian army is indeed deployed in numbers up to 15.000 (which is more than the 10.000 that were deployed in Ossetia during the Georgian War) than why do they have so much trouble with the Ukrainian Army?
More people, more cameras, more civilian traffic, more reporters on the scene the Russians can't control. Plus too many of their fellow Russians standing around seeing things to effectively silence everyone.
Chechnya has only a small boarder with anyone other than Russia, and that's high in the mountains. It's easy to control who goes in, and comes out. Their telcom industry was practically medieval at the time (And probably still is) and was also easily cut off. Generally they're hated by the Russians, and thus anything they say is more suspect.
Georgia was more modern, but was over very quickly and left the Russians in charge of the area the fighting took place in.
Ukraine is both fairly modern, large, and has big, friendly boarders for reporters and such to come and go. Their army HAS been able to push back and retake ground, and unlike the other two, other countries around them give a damn about what happens. Worse, the UN monitors are poking their noses in every grave they see, due to Russia's own allegations of war crimes against the Ukraine. and there is tremendous international scrutiny, far more so than Georgia or Chechnya.
Can you imagine the stink if they open graves and find someone's overlooked dog tags? Or the forensic anthropologists test them and find they all came from the same military base in Russia (yes, you can do that now)? They can put a name to a corpse after 100 years in the ground these days, with a few months and good labs.
Well, Chechnya actually is inside Russia in case you had not noticed. There were also plenty of ethnic Russians living there and any reporter could get in by bribing a guard. Corruption was really out of control in those days. Chechnya has also advanced a lot since the war, they are doing relatively well (at least better than Ukraine).
You do have a point in that technology was not as advanced and widespread yet at that point, but I do not see that as enough reason for the Russian military to just drop all their attempts at covering up and instead just put their fingers in their ears and deny everything. The other explanation is of course that there is nothing to cover up, or at least not as much as Ukrainian and Western propaganda wants to make it look like.
Iron_Captain wrote: Yes, but they just barged in wearing full uniforms and did not resist at all when they met Ukrainian troops. The Russian government immediately admitted they were actual Russian soldiers. It is quite likely they indeed lost their way, which is not uncommon, it happens the other way around as well. There have been quite a lot of accidental and also deliberate border crossings by Ukrainian troops.
Actually they initially denied it, then admitted it. And, frankly, i think the fact that they immediately surrendered rather than attempt to engage is probably the difference between the two official responses.
Please explain more, I don't think I understand what you want to say here. It also does not really explain that they wore full uniforms and that the Russian military admitted it, even if they denied at first. If they really had been there to fight alongside the seperatists, than the Russian military would have kept denying it, don't you think? They could just have said that all evidence was fabricated or something like that.
Why could not the reason be that those soldiers actually did cross the border accidentally (it is unmarked) and that the Russian military just wanted to bring them back home?
I don't think I understand the saying in the second part of your post, but when 37% of your army fails to show up (on top of the desertions of those who do show up and the defections of many who joined the Army before the conflict) you have a big problem.
Desertions are, officially, at least, currently fairly low. I attribute it to the guys who were going to desert already have, and that men attempting to can now be shot. Which, before you go on a rant about how barbaric that is, actually it's fairly common in armies that if you try to desert in the face of the enemy, you can be shot.
And, no, 37% is fairly good. Compare it to other civil wars and their rates of people dodging the draft, those are good solid numbers that show a lot of people turning out to fight. Lincoln would have strangled someone for numbers that good in the US Civil War. I think I pointed out earlier they drafted something like 400k and had 20k show up in one draft.
Shooting deserters is a good measure. I don't know whether 37% is good or not (or even where that number comes from), but I do know that the Ukrainians themselves have admitted having large problems with finding enough soldiers. I think we can trust them on that, for why would they otherwise say so?
It is when you consider the fact that the entire separatist strength is estimated at 10.000 to 20.000.
Unfortunately that depends on who's doing the estimating. I've head numbers as low as 2 thousand, and has high as one hundred thousand. Most seem to bobble around 30-50k with an additional 3 to 50 thousand Russian troops. The numbers for the Ukrainian military also seem to fluctuate wildly.
My theory is that the Ukrainian military has higher numbers, while the Separatists have better gear and some Russian support.
I laughed my ass off when TASS ran a story that NATO had 50k troops on the Ukrainian boarder with Russia. They pulled it within two hours. Seems that someone pointed out that they mistranslated what was actually said by NATO.
Don't you think that with tens of thousands of Russian troops, this conflict would look quite a bit different?
I think that when you look at the scale and intensity of the fighting so far, you can conclude that there are no more than a few ten thousand troops on both sides.
Also, the seperatists have better gear? Than why are they pulling T-34s off monuments all over Donbass?
The Seperatists also have been using all kinds of old weaponry from WW1 and 2.
They raided a mine under Slavyansk which served as one of the largest small arms depots of the Soviet Union, but most of the weapons stored there where from WW2. They have no shortage of weapons, but if they had better quality ones, than why are they using such old relics?
In any case they do not seem to have as much heavy equipment, Ukraine has a huge amount of tanks, and the seperatists especially lack artillery, as evidenced by the difference in the number of shellings of seperatist towns and government towns. They also have no operational airplanes. Overall, I would say they do not have the better gear.
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2015/03/31 22:44:33
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Iron_Captain wrote: Actually, there was very fierce fighting for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk before the Seperatists were driven back.
Two strong points don't mean they were not over extended. Battery Wagner was a hell of a strong point. They still abandoned it because they simply couldn't support it with the rest of the line folding.
You do have a point in that technology was not as advanced and widespread yet at that point, but I do not see that as enough reason for the Russian military to just drop all their attempts at covering up and instead just put their fingers in their ears and deny everything. The other explanation is of course that there is nothing to cover up, or at least not as much as Ukrainian and Western propaganda wants to make it look like.
Because in this case, leaving the bodies there means someone finds them. It's less likely that they get found right away if you were to fly them back.
Also, the seperatists have better gear? Than why are they pulling T-34s off monuments all over Donbass?
Well, in Luhansk it was a lie, the tank was removed by the Kaska veterans association in preparation for getting it running again for May. (It had previously been fully restored in 2013) (Vehicle Number 237)
I looked around the list of surviving T-34s and the tank in the video does not match any Monument tank I could find in the Ukraine. There are a lot of them, don't get me wrong, but this is not, as far as I am able to find, one of them (and I have pictures of at least most of them, even the ones that are just turrets on a plinth). A T-34 with turret number 301 is, however, in the collection of the Kubinka tank museum, though I could not find a picture to compare them. So, this might just be a video of them moving something around the collection at Kubinka and someone claiming it's separatists stealing a t-34, since that story is already out there.
Further, Volodarsky salt mine contained a lot more than WW2 gear. Also, don't sell the PTRS short. It might not stop a MBT or IFV, but it will make a mess of anything lighter.
As far as the desertions go, 37% was the official number they were talking about not showing up after being drafted. Getting enough troops where you need them is always a problem. In this case though, they probably lowballed thier initial drafts, so when a fair percentage didn't show up, it caught them by surprise.
As to why one paratroop group was admitted and one was denied: The troops who surrendered immediately did the correct thing when troops accidentally cross into another country and are confronted (honest mistake). The other actively engaged the Ukrainian military (act of war). So, to keep up the pretense of not being involved, one group they could say 'whoops, our bad, we made a goof'. The other it's a lot harder to blow off, particularly when you're already suspected of covert involvement in the conflict. So they deny. it may have been an honest mistake,but because they directly engaged, Moscow would never be able to admit that it happened without losing a lot of face.
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
2015/04/01 05:25:13
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
You could have the prime minister (or is it president, whatever one Putin's swapped out of this time) come out and admit to it and the Russian government's line would still be "yeah, not us". =P
The point that the rest of the world is turning a blind eye to this and not pressing to back up already known knowledge is a good one however. Woo appeasement.
2015/04/01 20:12:34
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
I thought we had stopped but apparently we're back to actually, seriously debating whether or not Russia has troops in Ukraine here. Can't even be bothered.
2015/04/01 20:23:43
Subject: Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
the Ukrainians aren't letting lots of necessary items like food into the separatist areas from their side and appear to be letting trucks sit idle full of supplies and not allowed to cross, international food aid from things like UNICEF is apparently being distributed within the separatist areas under the guise of having been provided by the DNR fighters or Russia instead, people in the separatist areas are mad their pensions aren't being paid by the government they want to break away from, supermarket shelves are increasingly empty except for Vodka, and food is all around apparently getting scarcer and more expensive in the separatist areas.
A very unfortunate state of affairs.
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
2015/04/01 23:08:48
Subject: Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
That part about the pensions isn't unique to Ukraine. For some reason separatists never consider that their pensions won't continue if the separate. I wonder which currency they are using in the rebel areas? Have they switched to Russian Rubles? Has Crimea?
2015/04/01 23:59:33
Subject: Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
KamikazeCanuck wrote: That part about the pensions isn't unique to Ukraine. For some reason separatists never consider that their pensions won't continue if the separate. I wonder which currency they are using in the rebel areas? Have they switched to Russian Rubles? Has Crimea?
Crimea absolutley has. Russian currency, Russian timezone, etc.
In the Donbass, I haven't seen anything definitive on that, most of the time money comes up its people complaining their pensions aren't being payed.
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
2015/04/02 02:58:09
Subject: Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Vaktathi wrote: Crimea absolutley has. Russian currency, Russian timezone, etc.
So, based on what they're complaining about in Moscow these fays, they're paying in US dollars then, as Russian currency is worth less than the paper it's printed on.
It's been climbing again, don't get me wrong, but it's so unstable another round of sanctions could spell the end for the Russian financial system.
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
2015/04/02 12:46:07
Subject: Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Ukraine has signed a new short-term agreement to buy gas from Russia at a lower price, despite the ongoing conflict in the east of the country.
Ukraine will pay $248 per thousand cubic metres over the next three months down from the $329 it had been paying in the first quarter of this year.
Talks will continue to find a permanent solution to the long-running pricing dispute.
Ukraine said it would still be required to pre-pay Russia for its gas supplies.
Kiev accuses Moscow of supporting separatists rebels in eastern Ukraine in a conflict that began in November 2013 and has left the country in a precarious economic situation.
However Ukraine's energy minister, Volodymyr Demchyshyn said Ukraine's state gas company, Naftogaz, had been able to reach a short term agreement with Russian gas giant, Gazprom.
Previously Russia has threatened to cut off Ukraine's energy supplies over unmet bills.
In the past disputes over the supply of Russian gas to Ukraine have led to knock-on supply problems in other parts of Europe which rely on supplies of gas from Gazprom.
2015/04/02 17:14:29
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
I think there's an old adage that goes something like "countries that trade with each other don't shoot at each other". Those wacky Kievian Rus showed us you can have it all.
2015/04/02 17:39:11
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Iron_Captain wrote: Actually, there was very fierce fighting for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk before the Seperatists were driven back.
Two strong points don't mean they were not over extended. Battery Wagner was a hell of a strong point. They still abandoned it because they simply couldn't support it with the rest of the line folding.
If they had tens of thousands of Russian soldiers with them as you claim, than how were they overextended?
Also, the seperatists have better gear? Than why are they pulling T-34s off monuments all over Donbass?
Well, in Luhansk it was a lie, the tank was removed by the Kaska veterans association in preparation for getting it running again for May. (It had previously been fully restored in 2013) (Vehicle Number 237)
I looked around the list of surviving T-34s and the tank in the video does not match any Monument tank I could find in the Ukraine. There are a lot of them, don't get me wrong, but this is not, as far as I am able to find, one of them (and I have pictures of at least most of them, even the ones that are just turrets on a plinth). A T-34 with turret number 301 is, however, in the collection of the Kubinka tank museum, though I could not find a picture to compare them. So, this might just be a video of them moving something around the collection at Kubinka and someone claiming it's separatists stealing a t-34, since that story is already out there.
Wow, that is awesome. You seem to actually know a lot about the region, unlike 99% of people in this thread.
But what about this tank? It used to be a monument in Antratsyt, but it definetely seems to be in use by the Seperatists now:
Also, since you seem so knowledgeable about T-34 monuments, do you maybe recognise this one?
Its turret number is 137, with a red star next to it.
Tyran wrote:We all agree there are Russian soldiers in Ukraine, now the question is how many?
Not many. There are could be some military advisors, commanders and operators of specialised equipment, but not entire divisions.
KamikazeCanuck wrote:That part about the pensions isn't unique to Ukraine. For some reason separatists never consider that their pensions won't continue if the separate. I wonder which currency they are using in the rebel areas? Have they switched to Russian Rubles? Has Crimea?
Ukraine still considers Donetsk and Lugansk so to be parts of Ukraine, so I think that it would be reasonable for the people there to expect the Ukrainian government to continue paying their pensions. Not that it is unique to Eastern Ukraine though. The Ukrainian government is as good as broke, they have trouble paying pensions in other parts of the country too. In rebel areas they stil use Ukrainian money, in Crimea they are switching to Russian Rubles. At the moment both Ukrainian and Russian money is valid in Crimea.
Dreadclaw69 wrote:Looks like the conflict has not halted trade
Ukraine has signed a new short-term agreement to buy gas from Russia at a lower price, despite the ongoing conflict in the east of the country.
Ukraine will pay $248 per thousand cubic metres over the next three months down from the $329 it had been paying in the first quarter of this year.
Talks will continue to find a permanent solution to the long-running pricing dispute.
Ukraine said it would still be required to pre-pay Russia for its gas supplies.
Kiev accuses Moscow of supporting separatists rebels in eastern Ukraine in a conflict that began in November 2013 and has left the country in a precarious economic situation.
However Ukraine's energy minister, Volodymyr Demchyshyn said Ukraine's state gas company, Naftogaz, had been able to reach a short term agreement with Russian gas giant, Gazprom.
Previously Russia has threatened to cut off Ukraine's energy supplies over unmet bills.
In the past disputes over the supply of Russian gas to Ukraine have led to knock-on supply problems in other parts of Europe which rely on supplies of gas from Gazprom.
Ukraine simply has not much choice. If they do not get enough gas from Russia, they will not have enough supplies to last through winter. Besides gas, Ukraine also relies on Russia for many other things, and Russia is by far Ukraine's largest trading partner. They may have a conflict with Russia, but they are not going to cut ties anytime soon.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/02 17:53:23
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2015/04/02 21:36:39
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Iron_Captain wrote: Ukraine still considers Donetsk and Lugansk so to be parts of Ukraine, so I think that it would be reasonable for the people there to expect the Ukrainian government to continue paying their pensions. Not that it is unique to Eastern Ukraine though. The Ukrainian government is as good as broke, they have trouble paying pensions in other parts of the country too.
I don't think anyone will deny that the Ukrainian government is rather inept, and has been for, well, a very long time and there are longstanding social, institutional, and political reasons for that state of affairs.
That said, the concept of suspending payments to persons within conflict zones isn't an unreasonable measure. Finance, banking, & telecommunications systems are not secure. Even setting aside the possibility of the recipients using such funds to fight against the Ukrainian state, there's a very real possibility that funds never reach their intended recipients, either through malfunction of institutions or active diversion/siphoning/skimming/seizure of funds by those now in control.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/02 21:37:01
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
2015/04/02 23:16:56
Subject: Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
KamikazeCanuck wrote: If the people living there don't consider themselves Ukrainian anymore I don't see why they would expect to get benefits from Ukraine anymore.
I mean, that's a fair point, if they don't want to be part of Ukraine and are willing to fight to get away, then it's hard to see why Ukraine should keep paying them. Though to be fair, they put in their time all the same and many/most of these people are just trying to get by and having little or nothing to do directly with the fighting. Personally, either way, my bigger concern would be the financial institutions not being secured.
It's a crappy situation all around.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/03 03:36:35
IRON WITHIN, IRON WITHOUT.
New Heavy Gear Log! Also...Grey Knights! The correct pronunciation is Imperial Guard and Stormtroopers, "Astra Militarum" and "Tempestus Scions" are something you'll find at Hogwarts.
2015/04/03 06:28:15
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Wow, I was absent just for one week and here are so many text... Does anybody wait for my answers about my last post 2 pages ago? Or duel Iron_Captain vs BaronIveagh is more interesting? About T-34 mentioned by Iron_Captain: I found that it is stolen monument tank from Druzhkivka, it was not repaired and it was returned back last July https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9BAmfGYsQ8 I think it was stolen just for dismantling and sale as scrap metal, not for fighting.
But you can find a lot of truly restored and functioning WW2 tanks like IS. Here is video about restored IS-3 by separatists and then captured by ukrainian army: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C0RgrQOZ84Q
About contracts between Ukraine and Russia: mutual recriminations do not prevent trading between them. Ukraine get gas and coal from Russia (Donbass is coal-mining region with high-quality black coal, so it is huge shortage of coal in Ukraine now and Kiev buy it in Russian. Somebody say that Ukraine buys coal from Russia that was mined in Donbass) etc. Ukrainian oligarchs factory still working on in Russia (for example candy factory of Poroschenko in Russian city of Lipetsk).
If they had tens of thousands of Russian soldiers with them as you claim, than how were they overextended?
Because 15k men isn't a whole lot, once you break it down into logistics, etc. You also have the issue that your lines of supply may be too long, or cut by enemy action that would also leave you over extended.
It's also why I don't buy the 10k number for the separatists. You'd be left with too small a force to hold a city, even against a demoralized enemy. On paper the Ukrainian military is pretty huge. In reality they can field about 50k troops on the front. Figure about half that are actually deployed to the area, and you'd still have more than enough to simply crush the Separatists.
Also, since you seem so knowledgeable about T-34 monuments, do you maybe recognize this one?
Its turret number is 137, with a red star next to it.
85th Independent Tank Regiment monument in Sevastopol. and I like it's new paint job.
BTW: I sorted out who exactly is taking the tanks. It's not the Donbass separatist military. Sort of. Local militias are the ones stealing these, (on both sides of the fence), after having watched a youtube video where two jokers get the engines to start on two monument tanks. There was an interview with the ones in Antratsyt, it was.... well, let's just say that the 'officer' being interviewed seemed to have a (not entirely surprising) lack of any idea what is required to get some monument tanks fully working, let alone fighting. I have to attribute that one being up and running to dumb luck that it was still in good shape and have to wonder where they're going to get the ammunition.
They had the same problem in Armenia back in the 90's: local volunteers would steal the monument tanks, and then you'd find them places where they discovered that the tank was beyond salvage, filled with concrete, etc etc. They'll have that problem with the one in your earlier video. Traced it down, it's the monument in Druzhkovka (my picture is older for it and had no number). They're going to have a devil of a time getting the concrete out of the gun.
On the up side, if the militias are opening up sealed tanks on monuments, if they're not careful they'll save the Ukrainian government some bullets. If they got water in them, the oxygen levels inside the tank will be depleted, meaning that there's a good chance that someone will suffocate if they have not let it air out properly.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Asadjud wrote: Wow, I was absent just for one week and here are so many text... Does anybody wait for my answers about my last post 2 pages ago? Or duel Iron_Captain vs BaronIveagh is more interesting? About T-34 mentioned by Iron_Captain: I found that it is stolen monument tank from Druzhkivka, it was not repaired and it was returned back last July https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9BAmfGYsQ8 I think it was stolen just for dismantling and sale as scrap metal, not for fighting.
.
Nuts, Ninja'd.
Please let the separatists know that they'll get more money selling their stolen monument tanks on the open market then they will for the scrap value. WW2 tanks in even decent shape can fetch hundreds of thousands, if not millions of dollars. German WW2 tanks in particular can fetch tens of millions, due to rarity.
Ok, on whataboutism:
I thought i had posted about this, but apparently did not. The problem with whataboutism is that it ignores the fact that just because someone else did it, or did something worse, does not actually excuse the act in question. It's frequently done to try and justify the unjustifiable, just by saying 'well, what about what YOU did?' and was actually used as an attempted defense at Nuremberg by certain Nazi's who claimed their inhuman medical experiments were OK, because both Russia and the US had also done inhuman medical experiments.
Ultimately, it's an attempt to deflect and shift blame, via accusing the other person of hypocrisy, rather than actually address the issue.
This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2015/04/03 13:45:55
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
2015/04/03 14:05:19
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
If they're salvaging those monument tanks as legitimate fighting vehicles, wouldn't the militias go through at least some modernizing process? ...Ok probably not. Still, strip out the gun for something more practical (that you can actually find the ammunition for) and weld on a load of armour. Then have the local engineers give you hell over the fact you've spent the time doing up an old tank when you could have been out there repairing one of the newer one's that had been taken out of action.
Ooh, but good point BaronIveagh about those tanks actual market value. I wouldn't know how they'd get them out of the country however (it'd have to be up through Russia, customs in other countries would notice the theft. That is if the local constabulary weren't just corrupt).
2015/04/03 15:00:59
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
If they had tens of thousands of Russian soldiers with them as you claim, than how were they overextended?
Because 15k men isn't a whole lot, once you break it down into logistics, etc. You also have the issue that your lines of supply may be too long, or cut by enemy action that would also leave you over extended.
It's also why I don't buy the 10k number for the separatists. You'd be left with too small a force to hold a city, even against a demoralized enemy. On paper the Ukrainian military is pretty huge. In reality they can field about 50k troops on the front. Figure about half that are actually deployed to the area, and you'd still have more than enough to simply crush the Separatists.
I think 15k men is a whole lot. In Syria and Iraq, ISIS captured huge areas with just a few hundred to thousand of fighters, and according to CIA estimates, they can muster at most between 20.000 and 31.500 fighters (http://edition.cnn.com/2014/09/11/world/meast/isis-syria-iraq/) and that is up from 10.000 when they captured all those areas. You do not need a huge force to fight against a demoralised enemy, as long as your own fighters are highly motivated.
Also, since you seem so knowledgeable about T-34 monuments, do you maybe recognize this one?
Its turret number is 137, with a red star next to it.
85th Independent Tank Regiment monument in Sevastopol. and I like it's new paint job.
I always used to climb on top of that tank when I was a kid. It is a great place to sit. I often wondered if it was still capable of driving and shooting (probably not though, it was damaged in the war).
BaronIveagh wrote: BTW: I sorted out who exactly is taking the tanks. It's not the Donbass separatist military. Sort of. Local militias are the ones stealing these, (on both sides of the fence), after having watched a youtube video where two jokers get the engines to start on two monument tanks. There was an interview with the ones in Antratsyt, it was.... well, let's just say that the 'officer' being interviewed seemed to have a (not entirely surprising) lack of any idea what is required to get some monument tanks fully working, let alone fighting. I have to attribute that one being up and running to dumb luck that it was still in good shape and have to wonder where they're going to get the ammunition.
They had the same problem in Armenia back in the 90's: local volunteers would steal the monument tanks, and then you'd find them places where they discovered that the tank was beyond salvage, filled with concrete, etc etc. They'll have that problem with the one in your earlier video. Traced it down, it's the monument in Druzhkovka (my picture is older for it and had no number). They're going to have a devil of a time getting the concrete out of the gun.
Yes, T-34s are not at all good weapons anymore in the modern era. Especially not after having been used as monuments for decades. That is why I came up with it. If you are desperate enough to start pulling T-34s of monuments to have armoured vehicles, than you must be severely short of good equipment. And what is the diiference between local militias and Donbass militias? As far as I know, the Donbass militia is made up of several local and foreign volunteer groups.
But yes, as mentioned already, they could be selling them as well.
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2015/04/03 17:19:09
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Yes, T-34s are not at all good weapons anymore in the modern era. Especially not after having been used as monuments for decades. That is why I came up with it. If you are desperate enough to start pulling T-34s of monuments to have armoured vehicles, than you must be severely short of good equipment. And what is the diiference between local militias and Donbass militias? As far as I know, the Donbass militia is made up of several local and foreign volunteer groups.
But yes, as mentioned already, they could be selling them as well.
These guys sound like locals who are not really aware of which end of the gun the bullet comes out. You get that type in rebellions. This is in no way indicative of the weapon needs of the Donbass separatist military. As has been said, it's more likely they're selling them for funds. Weirdly, this is actually a war crime (as is melting them down for scrap) but is a fairly minor one.
On the subject of the T-34. Actually, the T-34-85 is passable in a pinch. It can't take a hit, but the weapon (if intact) is decent. It will make a mess of most IFVs and may or may not penetrate side and rear armor on an MBT, and has the advantage that reactive armor isn't as effective against it. Downside is that it might as well be made of tinfoil. Basically an ambush only weapon.
The real issue is finding ammunition.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/03 17:21:10
Fate is in heaven, armor is on the chest, accomplishment is in the feet. - Nagao Kagetora
2015/04/05 22:27:54
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Interesting new vehicle the Ukrainians have came out with. Well I think its new, its certainly no Wolfound. It reminds me a bit of something the Italians (or was it the French) are using.
Damn that would look so good as a S.T.A.L.K.E.R. vehicle.
State Enterprise "Lviv armored plant" began serial production of Ukrainian military armored light class "Dozor-B." According to the director Alexander LBZ Ostaptsa to perform goszadaniya, until July of this year to be produced 40 units of "Watch". It is reported "Day".
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/05 22:29:14
2015/04/06 00:27:58
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Wyrmalla wrote: Interesting new vehicle the Ukrainians have came out with. Well I think its new, its certainly no Wolfound. It reminds me a bit of something the Italians (or was it the French) are using.
Damn that would look so good as a S.T.A.L.K.E.R. vehicle.
State Enterprise "Lviv armored plant" began serial production of Ukrainian military armored light class "Dozor-B." According to the director Alexander LBZ Ostaptsa to perform goszadaniya, until July of this year to be produced 40 units of "Watch". It is reported "Day".
Looks similar to a shorland or a 4 wheel version of the hussar.
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2015/04/06 12:52:31
Subject: Re:Ukraine: Witness the rise of a new Russian Empire, live!
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
4000
FB 2000
