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 Iron_Captain wrote:
Russia is a great power. That is all the right it needs. Can you name me any great power that does not meddle with its neighbours? Russia saw its sphere of influence taken over by the West, and that threatens not only Russia's great power status, but also the very stability of the Russian state. Russia does not have the soft power of the West, so it can not fight back that way. Russia has to fight to keep its control with what it has, which is hard power.

Here, Iron_Captain. Don't say I never gave you anything.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34920207

Seems Ukraine has found a better fuel deal elsewhere.

I'm curious about this "elsewhere".

 Tyran wrote:
I'm curious about this "elsewhere".

Probably the Romania. Romania is another country with an expanding natural gas industry, and the conflicts with Russia and Ukraine gives them a nice chance to try and undercut the Russian share of the market.

What's happening with the pipelines that cross Ukraine and feed into other European nations?

 Breotan wrote:
What's happening with the pipelines that cross Ukraine and feed into other European nations?

Still up, but ones which feed directly into Ukraine have been cut off. The Russians have imposed a bunch of new embargos onto the Ukrainians, but by and large the rest of the world isn't effected IIRC.

 Tyran wrote:
I'm curious about this "elsewhere".

dried manure

 LordofHats wrote:

Probably the Romania. Romania is another country with an expanding natural gas industry, and the conflicts with Russia and Ukraine gives them a nice chance to try and undercut the Russian share of the market.

My guess as well.

 Wyrmalla wrote:

Still up, but ones which feed directly into Ukraine have been cut off. The Russians have imposed a bunch of new embargos onto the Ukrainians, but by and large the rest of the world isn't effected IIRC.

Only a matter of time though at this point before the Ukraine starts raising Gazproms rent.

Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

Ukrainian winters are cold... And the people nowadays prefer decadent central heating over the good old ways of chopping down trees and burning them to stay warm. Ukraine does not have enough reserves to last through the winter, and Romania and other European countries can't keep them supplied for long, they can draw from their reserves, but in the end they need to spare enough for themselves.
Also, Ukraine stopping all gas flow through its territory would anger Europe quite a bit, because it also means cutting of supply to parts of Europe.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Breotan wrote:

 Iron_Captain wrote:
Russia is a great power. That is all the right it needs. Can you name me any great power that does not meddle with its neighbours? Russia saw its sphere of influence taken over by the West, and that threatens not only Russia's great power status, but also the very stability of the Russian state. Russia does not have the soft power of the West, so it can not fight back that way. Russia has to fight to keep its control with what it has, which is hard power.

Here, Iron_Captain. Don't say I never gave you anything.

Spoiler:

Sorry. I much prefer the naval infantry. They may not have such a catchy song as the VDV, but I am from Sevastopol, I pretty much grew up watching those guys. Besides, the naval infantry are 100 times better. Naval infantry does most of the actual work, the paratroopers are more talk than fight.


Glory to the morpekhi!



If only I can get that horrible VDV song out of my head again...

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

It would piss of the European countries that buy that gas.

 Tyran wrote:

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

It would piss of the European countries that buy that gas.

Ukraine may not have legal rights to shut off those pipelines. I'm sure they signed binding agreements but that doesn't mean shenanigans can't happen.

I think having part of the country annexed might just render those moot.

 Co'tor Shas wrote:
I think having part of the country annexed might just render those moot.

This would be why they've scaled back on buying Russian gas, but I do think that there are still in effect past agreements that would prevent them from closing the pipes. Russia annexing Crimea might upset them and everyone else, but it doesn't automatically change the agreements already in effect.

Realistically though, expect to see Ukraine and other Eastern European states start looking for other sources of energy. Being dependent on Russian sources suddenly looks like a losing proposition.

Right Sector and other radicals can blow up pipelines. It's a real threat. Maybe you heard, they destroyed electricity lines to Crimea and Ukraine army was unable to stop them.

 LordofHats wrote:

 Co'tor Shas wrote:
I think having part of the country annexed might just render those moot.

This would be why they've scaled back on buying Russian gas, but I do think that there are still in effect past agreements that would prevent them from closing the pipes. Russia annexing Crimea might upset them and everyone else, but it doesn't automatically change the agreements already in effect.

Realistically though, expect to see Ukraine and other Eastern European states start looking for other sources of energy. Being dependent on Russian sources suddenly looks like a losing proposition.

The baltic states are already working on LNG ships to break their dependency on gazprom, I think there is one already. The independence maybe?

Well the gakky part is that Turkey will likely butt its head into this issue at some point, not wanting to let Russia have control of the Black Sea or the Balklands and Eastern Europe. They're in the perfect spot to help Romania and, Hungary I think is the other one (?), develop their energy industries as well as expand their own share of the market. EDIT: JNo, Hungary is the one with the huge water reserves. Which one is the one with all the gas under it (that isn't Romania)?

WWI Geopolitics, Round 2 here we come. Oh what fun it will be.

 Freakazoitt wrote:
It's a real threat. Maybe you heard, they destroyed electricity lines to Crimea and Ukraine army was unable to stop them.

Yeah, I just can't understand why people driven from their homes at gunpoint would be so upset at their persecutors they'd commit random acts of vandalism and petty vengeance.


I mean, it's not like my great great grandmother smashed all the bottoms out of her kettles she couldn't take with her while her white neighbors were standing around waiting for the solders to take our family away so they could loot the place

Oh, wait, she did.


If the people of the Crimea wanted so badly to return to the glorious old days of Joe Stalin, congratulate them, they now are back to living without electricity and running water, just like when Ol' Joe was running the show. Maybe someone will start starving them to death in their houses, or start some slave labor camps, just to put a cherry on it.

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

European support? They'd be holding Europe to ransom as much as it would be holding Russia. Don't we rely on Russian gas ourselves?

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

European support? They'd be holding Europe to ransom as much as it would be holding Russia. Don't we rely on Russian gas ourselves?

England does not, actually. You're pillaging Scotland for that.

Not as much as a lot of people think. Several Baltic countries are developing their natural gas industries, possibly able to do so due to low numbers of Russians longing to return to Russia without moving there in their petrochemical rich regions. A part of Russia's interest in Syria remains preventing a gas pipeline to Europe from the UAE, which would be more or less the final nail in the coffin for Russia's dominance of Eastern Europe's gas.

Here's a breakdown by country

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 Shadow Captain Edithae wrote:

European support? They'd be holding Europe to ransom as much as it would be holding Russia. Don't we rely on Russian gas ourselves?

England does not, actually. You're pillaging Scotland for that.

Not as much as a lot of people think. Several Baltic countries are developing their natural gas industries, possibly able to do so due to low numbers of Russians longing to return to Russia without moving there in their petrochemical rich regions. A part of Russia's interest in Syria remains preventing a gas pipeline to Europe from the UAE, which would be more or less the final nail in the coffin for Russia's dominance of Eastern Europe's gas.

Here's a breakdown by country

They may take our gas, but they'll never take our neverendum!

 obsidianaura wrote:

They may take our gas, but they'll never take our neverendum!

Post election that was one of the bigger complaints that Scots felt they were being robbed, with elderly pensioners being the big deciding factor for staying. Next time around, the UK might not have that cushion of people worried about if they're going to have enough to live on post departure.

So it might finally... endum.

I meant "we" collectively, as in the EU.

 BaronIveagh wrote:

 obsidianaura wrote:

They may take our gas, but they'll never take our neverendum!

Post election that was one of the bigger complaints that Scots felt they were being robbed, with elderly pensioners being the big deciding factor for staying. Next time around, the UK might not have that cushion of people worried about if they're going to have enough to live on post departure.

So it might finally... endum.

I hope it does TBH.

I'd welcome an independent Scotland.

I think it makes much more sense for Scotland to work out its boundaries and recourses and then have full control over taxation and so on.

I'd prefer the buck to stop with SNP rather than them blaming everything on England.

Well it's always easier to blame someone else.

 Tyran wrote:

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

It would piss of the European countries that buy that gas.

So? Unless those countries are helping them in some way I don't see why they care. Right now the bulk of Russia's economy runs through Ukraine, That's who they are helping the most. It made sense when Russia was suppling them gas as well but not anymore.

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
So? Unless those countries are helping them in some way I don't see why they care. Right now the bulk of Russia's economy runs through Ukraine, That's who they are helping the most. It made sense when Russia was suppling them gas as well but not anymore.

Because Ukraine can't possibly oppose Russia alone, and trying to cut Russia off is just going to invite Russia to be more direct in its methods. Putin hasn't exactly been subtle in describing how he views power and foreign politics.

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:

 Tyran wrote:

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

It would piss of the European countries that buy that gas.

So? Unless those countries are helping them in some way I don't see why they care. Right now the bulk of Russia's economy runs through Ukraine, That's who they are helping the most. It made sense when Russia was suppling them gas as well but not anymore.

When you got one of your neighbours to be really pissed off at you, it would be a very, very bad idea to piss the other one off too. Especially if you have no money, your infrastructure is falling apart, and your only effective fighting force is a wild bunch of ultranationalist neo-nazi crazies.
Without Europe to supply food for the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army will be left with no choice but to pillage even more potato fields. At that point it is only a matter of time before the potatoes in Ukraine run out and Ukrainian soldiers invade Belarus, which would piss off Ukraine's third and last neighbour too. The Belarusians are very proud and protective of their potatoes.

Lets be fair, potatoes are worth fighting for.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:

 Tyran wrote:

 KamikazeCanuck wrote:
Why doesn't Ukraine just stop all gas flowing through it's territory now? What does it have to lose?

It would piss of the European countries that buy that gas.

So? Unless those countries are helping them in some way I don't see why they care. Right now the bulk of Russia's economy runs through Ukraine, That's who they are helping the most. It made sense when Russia was suppling them gas as well but not anymore.

When you got one of your neighbours to be really pissed off at you, it would be a very, very bad idea to piss the other one off too. Especially if you have no money, your infrastructure is falling apart, and your only effective fighting force is a wild bunch of ultranationalist neo-nazi crazies.
Without Europe to supply food for the Ukrainian army, the Ukrainian army will be left with no choice but to pillage even more potato fields. At that point it is only a matter of time before the potatoes in Ukraine run out and Ukrainian soldiers invade Belarus, which would piss off Ukraine's third and last neighbour too. The Belarusians are very proud and protective of their potatoes.

If the EU is providing food to Ukraine then they are getting something out of it. That was my question. Is Russia paying Ukraine to ship gas through it at least?