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Hm, i was counting (1/6 + 1/6) [they're independent] - 1/36 [chance of getting 2 at once]

Martel732 wrote:
The single biggest problem is that while flak missiles are actually average AA firepower, the krak and frag modes both suck. And flak costs extra, so you have to buy a crappy weapon to get average AA output.

How do the krak and frag versions both suck? Krak is a average against vehicles and frag is decent anti infantry....

Missile launchers suck, thats why you had so many Long Fang units spamming them.

Str 8 is decent against vehicles, 4 Str 8 shots is good against MEQ, and 4 Str4 blasts against GEQ is also good.

lascannons are great against vehicles, great against MEQ and TEQ, but \not so great against GEQ.

You just have to define the role of your units and go from there.

As for flakk and AA, EVERY choice I have used has sucked, but I haven't tried guard allies with Vendetta's....

JubbJubbz wrote:
I love mathammer! So I ran some numbers. The following are percents, rounded to the nearest one percent of getting the result listed a long the top using the shots listed on the left (corresponding to 4 autocannon havocs, a forgefiend, 4 lascannon havocs, and finally 4 flakk havocs). keep in mind that some results overlap with the others so take care when trying to combine these percents in any way. I also did other AV's if anyone is interested but the story is pretty much the same.

vs AV 12: 1hp 2hp 3hp 1pen 2pen 3pen Explode
8 shots at S7 BS1 ap- 37 7 1 20 2 0 4
8 shots at S8 BS1 ap- 50 14 2 37 7 1 7
4 shots at S9 BS1 ap2 38 6 1 29 4 0 11
4 shots at S7 BS4 ap- 63 22 4 38 6 1 7

None of them are ultra promising but one has to factor in cost and use for things other than fliers.

Afterthought: The heldrake with hades will be similar to 4 flakk missles. +1S -1BS will largely even out

[EDIT] table looks horrible, any good way to post better tables?

Would you mind showing your calculations? Just for one weapon will be fine - for example the Lascannon Havocs.

Or can anyone approve of these numbers?

koooaei wrote:Hm, i was counting (1/6 + 1/6) [they're independent] - 1/36 [chance of getting 2 at once]

Even if independent they don't add. Imagine they were 50% chance to hit. if you add them together you'd get 100% which can't be true.

Chaospling wrote:

Would you mind showing your calculations? Just for one weapon will be fine - for example the Lascannon Havocs.

Or can anyone approve of these numbers?

Absolutely! I will explain how you get one percentage; the rest should be clear from there. So for example, to get 1 or more HP with 8 shots at S7 BS1 (37% in upper left of my table) you simply use the binomial distribution function. It takes 3 parameters. The number of trials (n), the number of successes (x), and the probability for one trial to succeed (p). In our scenario we have 8 shots (n=8), I'll start with wanting one success (x=1), and the probability for a single shot to succeed (that is taking off a HP) is 1/6*1/3 (p=1/18). Plug this in to the binomial distribution and you have the probability you will get exactly one HP off.

Do this again with x=2 to get the probability to get exactly 2 HP off, and again for x=3 and so on. You can then add these numbers to meet conditions like # or more HP, # or less HP, # to # HP etc. If you want pens or explodes you just change the definition of success and change p to suit. The equation would be eligible here so I'll instead point you to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution. The first two equations listed are all you need to do the above.

If you don't want to spend days with a calculator crunching numbers just set up a simple spread sheet to do it for you. Some (like Excel) even have the functions already available so you don't even have to do any of it yourself!

For things that are more complicated than this, such as figuring percents to 'kill' a vehicle (i.e. 3HP *or* Explode) I'll just write a quick piece of code to simulate the rolls many times to get the probability of success.

The auto cannons are not as effective as flakk missiles, but they are significantly less points.

115 for 4 auto cannon havoks, 175 for 4 flakk missile havoks.

Also, in order for flakk to be useful, you have to stand still.

Auto cannons can hide, and jump out without losing any effectiveness. ( vs flyers obviously)

Meanwhile, the flakk missile havoks who need LOS to shoot have to stand in the open so they can see without moving the next turn.

Huge drawback.

herpguy wrote:The biggest thing to remember is that for the cost of a flakk missile you could have bought 2 and a half Autocannons.

You're forgetting carrier costs here.

A squad of havocs with flakk missiles is not the same price as two squads of havocs with autocannons and a squad of havocs with two autocannons.

I'll also add that autocannon havoks can gtg behind an aegis line for a 2+ cover and not lose any shooting effectiveness vs flyers.

Flakk havoks can not.

JubbJubbz wrote:

koooaei wrote:Hm, i was counting (1/6 + 1/6) [they're independent] - 1/36 [chance of getting 2 at once]

Even if independent they don't add. Imagine they were 50% chance to hit. if you add them together you'd get 100% which can't be true.

Chaospling wrote:

Would you mind showing your calculations? Just for one weapon will be fine - for example the Lascannon Havocs.

Or can anyone approve of these numbers?

Absolutely! I will explain how you get one percentage; the rest should be clear from there. So for example, to get 1 or more HP with 8 shots at S7 BS1 (37% in upper left of my table) you simply use the binomial distribution function. It takes 3 parameters. The number of trials (n), the number of successes (x), and the probability for one trial to succeed (p). In our scenario we have 8 shots (n=8), I'll start with wanting one success (x=1), and the probability for a single shot to succeed (that is taking off a HP) is 1/6*1/3 (p=1/18). Plug this in to the binomial distribution and you have the probability you will get exactly one HP off.

Do this again with x=2 to get the probability to get exactly 2 HP off, and again for x=3 and so on. You can then add these numbers to meet conditions like # or more HP, # or less HP, # to # HP etc. If you want pens or explodes you just change the definition of success and change p to suit. The equation would be eligible here so I'll instead point you to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution. The first two equations listed are all you need to do the above.

If you don't want to spend days with a calculator crunching numbers just set up a simple spread sheet to do it for you. Some (like Excel) even have the functions already available so you don't even have to do any of it yourself!

For things that are more complicated than this, such as figuring percents to 'kill' a vehicle (i.e. 3HP *or* Explode) I'll just write a quick piece of code to simulate the rolls many times to get the probability of success.

Ah thanks, I'm familiar with the binomial distribution, I just didn't get the same numbers as you but I see now what you meant by overlapping.