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As to the competition they are small compared to GW, and up is the only way to go.
Well.. We probably have seen "too much" competition enter the gaming space honestly. So bankruptcy for the business and going back to your day job might end up being the route a lot of these guys head.
Which guys?
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
Busy day today: Someone bought shares for £50k, another one for £70k, another one for £159k (or the same? Last two within 30 sec). Yesterday saw one sale for £118k .
As to the competition they are small compared to GW, and up is the only way to go.
Well.. We probably have seen "too much" competition enter the gaming space honestly. So bankruptcy for the business and going back to your day job might end up being the route a lot of these guys head.
Which guys?
All of them, except GW of course. :p Though less sarcastically I assume he speaks largely of the one man kickstarter companies.
As to the competition they are small compared to GW, and up is the only way to go.
Well.. We probably have seen "too much" competition enter the gaming space honestly. So bankruptcy for the business and going back to your day job might end up being the route a lot of these guys head.
Which guys?
All of them, except GW of course. :p Though less sarcastically I assume he speaks largely of the one man kickstarter companies.
Yes, those would be the ones most likely to suffer since they probably don't have much in the way of capital reserves or real assets.
As to the competition they are small compared to GW, and up is the only way to go.
Well.. We probably have seen "too much" competition enter the gaming space honestly. So bankruptcy for the business and going back to your day job might end up being the route a lot of these guys head.
Which guys?
All of them, except GW of course. :p Though less sarcastically I assume he speaks largely of the one man kickstarter companies.
Yes, those would be the ones most likely to suffer since they probably don't have much in the way of capital reserves or real assets.
But they have more support from the older gaming community.
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
As to the competition they are small compared to GW, and up is the only way to go.
Well.. We probably have seen "too much" competition enter the gaming space honestly. So bankruptcy for the business and going back to your day job might end up being the route a lot of these guys head.
Which guys?
All of them, except GW of course. :p Though less sarcastically I assume he speaks largely of the one man kickstarter companies.
Yes, those would be the ones most likely to suffer since they probably don't have much in the way of capital reserves or real assets.
But they have more support from the older gaming community.
Which means little. If they release one game through kickstarter but can't use that to kick further development into gear, then support isn't going to help, since people buying multiple copies of a game aren't in the majority. He does have a point there - these small kickstarter groups who put one game out then ride its coattails won't be around for long.
That doesn't mean the real competition won't stay around. After all, GW's main competition lately - Privateer Press, Battlefront, Spartan Games, Corvus Belli, Mantic, etc are all building on games and getting bigger because of it.
But then a lot of these one man kickstarters tend to be part-time staffed at best, or more likely a weekend project, with minimal overheads.
There are a lot of small companies that start out with someone who has a bill paying day job and trying to make money from their Hobby at the weekends. It's always been very much a cottage shed-casting industry.
Herzlos wrote: But then a lot of these one man kickstarters tend to be part-time staffed at best, or more likely a weekend project, with minimal overheads.
There are a lot of small companies that start out with someone who has a bill paying day job and trying to make money from their Hobby at the weekends. It's always been very much a cottage shed-casting industry.
Which is largely meaningless if the consumer starts to feel that he/she cannot afford to make such luxury purchases and the caster's business slows down to the point that it is no longer profitable to continue mass casting.
One man.. Two man.. 10 man? Doesn't matter. Even if they are successful right now, it doesn't guarantee that success will continue. You can have a superior product and overextend your business and be taken out behind the woodshed. The key to surviving an economic downturn is by being lean and not having unnecessary pressure put on the business. If people are 100% fully invested in their kickstarter, that usually means they are planning on taking a salary which may not be the best thing to keep the doors open. It can serve as a distraction and cause poor business decisions. This is especially important when you are starting a business.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
Herzlos wrote: But then a lot of these one man kickstarters tend to be part-time staffed at best, or more likely a weekend project, with minimal overheads.
There are a lot of small companies that start out with someone who has a bill paying day job and trying to make money from their Hobby at the weekends. It's always been very much a cottage shed-casting industry.
And these are the guys who would most likely be okay. The ones i'm worried about are the ones that think they are hot gak and already have business cards printed before they have sent their initial product to customers.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/03/06 15:03:53
Herzlos wrote: Except, of course, that the day job pays the bills so if they drop to 0 revenue from the shed casting they are still getting an income.
But not enough to bother with continuing to do all the work it takes to keep the side business running.
Seriously, would you continue with a side business that took up hours of your time on a weekly basis for negligible or no return?
(Edit: This is coming from someone who used to work a second job as a ballroom dance instructor. When the recession hit and people stopped having money for a hobby like dance lessons, my appointments started to dry up. It got to the point where I would drive all the way to the dance studio to teach a single lesson, rather than four or five. After about six months of this, the time and hassle of trying to keep the side business going, including paying for my own continued training and travel expenses, just got to the point where it wasn't worth the couple hundred dollars a month that I netted out, so I stopped teaching.)
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/03/06 15:25:33
Thank you for sharing your story Saldiven. That is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about. Even with your business operating with low operating expenses, it wasn't worth the human capital you were putting into the job. It's only worth the trouble when people are spending money and you are getting paid.
And again.. if this was a real recovery we are seeing, we wouldn't be seeing so many retailers closing stores. Staples just announced 225 closings here in the USA this morning. I know you Brits don't think that is a big deal but that is a major office supply retailer. And while this is all going on, investor sentiment is in la la land.
Spoiler:
Investor intelligence is basically a sentiment indicator used to gauge where we are in a cycle. Basic idea is you use this for context and it helps you with timing. Right now, too few people are negative which basically creates an environment ripe for disappointment.
you can't have more sells than buys.. in order for someone to buy shares, someone have to be selling. In order for someone to sell, someone has to be buying. All you are posting is volume. People can look that up fairly easily. It wasn't a large volume day. When volume gets over 500k shares it will be worth mentioning. Till this you are watching paint dry.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2014/03/06 18:27:59
dereksatkinson wrote: Thank you for sharing your story Saldiven. That is exactly the kind of thing I was talking about. Even with your business operating with low operating expenses, it wasn't worth the human capital you were putting into the job. It's only worth the trouble when people are spending money and you are getting paid.
"Human capital" is probably the best word to use in that sort of situation. It's not just money available for investment (the traditional definition of capital) that's involved. It's also an individual's time, effort, and emotional investment that's involved. In my personal case, when I had 4 lessons lined up in the evening, it was worth fighting north-metro Atlanta traffic in rush hour for an hour to get to the studio after work. That was an extra hundred bucks or so an evening, usually three or four days per week. When it turned into $20-$30 per day, only once or twice per week, it's just not worth it. (Income figures are pretty accurate, but gross figures. They don't count my expenses for mileage, gas, dance-wear, and my coaching that ran at $80/hour from a good professional.)
Those are the small businesses that would dry up the fastest, in my opinion. They don't have any vested reason in going through the hassle of running the business if they're not making money since they alread have (like I do) a steady income from a regular job.
Love all the smoke screen techno babble talk, not all people have side business purely for the money, some because they like to built stuff, other like to restore/ or fix cars, other like to do casting (ever heard of garage kits?).
Jehan-reznor wrote: Love all the smoke screen techno babble talk, not all people have side business purely for the money, some because they like to built stuff, other like to restore/ or fix cars, other like to do casting (ever heard of garage kits?).
The number of people who have a "side business" where they do not care about turning a profit is so miniscule as to not even be considered relevant.
A guy who restores cars for himself with no concern about net expenses has a hobby, not a business.
And, nobody is casting models in bulk form in the basement while turning a net loss out of the goodness of their hearts to help the gaming community. If sales got to the point that they weren't at least breaking even, only an incredibly small percentage of casters would continue to do it for anyone but themselves and a few friends.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2014/03/07 13:22:43
Jehan-reznor wrote: Love all the smoke screen techno babble talk, not all people have side business purely for the money, some because they like to built stuff, other like to restore/ or fix cars, other like to do casting (ever heard of garage kits?).
I tackled home injection molding out of a love for plastic model kits. It is very difficult but has lots of intangible rewards. I still work a job also. I just love the idea of making an idea in to a reality in the medium I prefer. The per-hour pay is absolute crap, to be honest. And some of the interactions I have endured have made me want to quit. In fact that has been very demoralizing.
But I have a plastic machine and mold making equipment, so for the rest of my life I will be tinkering around with it. If I hit the lottery I would be back out in the shop trying to see what I can do next within a few weeks.
No way I will ever be good at running a business, but I am OK with that.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/03/07 14:39:08
Biggest trade since avalanche today:
Three sales listed within a minute, attributed to yesterday, for 11+10+1 Mio GBP (4.5 Mio shares)
One buy listed today for 2.5 Mio GBP (500k shares).
Background: Nomad, biggest Investor, sold almost all its shares, not found anymore on the list of shareholders above 3% of total shares (before it was above 9%). Sale began 5th and ended 6th, notified 6th and 7th March.
Kroothawk wrote: Biggest trade since avalanche today:
Three sales listed within a minute, attributed to yesterday, for 11+10+1 Mio GBP (4.5 Mio shares)
One buy listed today for 2.5 Mio GBP (500k shares).
Background: Nomad, biggest Investor, sold almost all its shares, not found anymore on the list of shareholders above 3% of total shares (before it was above 9%). Sale began 5th and ended 6th, notified 6th and 7th March.
Sean_OBrien wrote: That creates the small upticks followed by large drops I mentioned previously. If a company like Nomad kicks out a chunk of stocks, the result ends up being a few dozen traders following suit and another 20% drop. Panic ensues, and down it goes till no one wants to buy and no one can afford to sell.
I don't think it works like that. If an institutional client is selling, someone else is buying. You don't always know the reason why someone is selling. Sometimes they are selling because they have to and it's not a reflection of their outlook on the company. If a fund is getting redemption requests, they have to sell.
Remember.. these funds are the guys who elected the current management team. They aren't going to dump simply because another fund is dumping. Guys that size would likely call up a few brokers and try to do block sales if they had given up. There isn't sufficient liquidity to sell it directly to the market and if they did, they would get a crap price. If you are seeing a fund sell their position from an Electronic trading platform, they are unsophisticated and/or likely doing it out of fear. You'd want to take the opposite side of that transaction 9 times out of 10.
I do not think the decline is over but the fact a big seller of that size was cleaned out is a very positive development as is the reversal candle on the weekly chart. If it had managed to close over 518 or it's 8 week moving average (which isn't too far away) i would have recommended getting out of any short positions. As is, I haven't changed my bearish opinion on the chart though. I still want to see divergences.
Kroothawk wrote:Biggest trade since avalanche today:
dereksatkinson wrote:Avalanches go up?
Pretty sure he meant, "Biggest trade since the avalanche happened today".
Personally, I don't know very much about the stock market, and what I do know I don't like very much, so I won't venture to have an opinion, apart from wondering what reason GW had to not pay out dividends this quarter. Didn't they take out a loan once just so they would be able to?
DR:80+S+GM++B+I++Pw40k07#-D+A+/mWD300R+T(M)DM+
2014/03/07 22:12:23
Subject: Re:GW share price development (7th March: Biggest investor sold its shares)
Nomad down to 506,280 shares (1.59%) or less. Everything else on the list same as 20th January 2014. So 2.5 Mio Nomad shares bought by a person or institution not yet on the radar, owning less than 3% currently.
20th January 2014:
Summary:
Artemis Investment Management LLP reached current level 15th April last year.
Schroders plc reached current level 10th January 2014.
Quantum Partners LP from Cayman Islands having 3.69% at 10th January 2014 is again gone from the records, so below 3%.
March 2013
Oh, and guess which part of this graph I mean when talking about the avalanche
This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2014/03/07 23:36:00
It was NOT the most shares traded in a single day since the Jan 16th earnings. That is not factually correct.
Jan 29th over 1.25 million shares traded vs this 500k print you are so excited about.
Also.. When you look at a real chart you can see it "gapped lower" at the open. So there wasn't an avalanche. An avalanche would look like the S&P did back in 08-09 where you had a constant grind lower over many months that simply wouldn't end until you had a washout.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/03/09 04:15:39
2014/03/09 09:57:20
Subject: GW share price development (7th March: Biggest investor sold its shares)
dereksatkinson wrote: It was NOT the most shares traded in a single day since the Jan 16th earnings. That is not factually correct.
Jan 29th over 1.25 million shares traded vs this 500k print you are so excited about.
So as a presumed professional you would say that 1.25 mio shares traded on January 29th are more than 2 mio shares traded 6th March (according to official notification on GW website)?
And that the biggest investor for years dropping from 9.8% to 1.59% or less in 2 days is peanuts?
I think that shows quite well on what basis all your personal insults against other posters in this thread are based.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2014/03/09 09:59:14
I must admit I'm in no way interested in financial trading. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate how intrinsic it is to the world we live in, but it doesn't 'float my boat' if that makes sense.
Having said that, if I was to invest a little bit of spare cash....how would you go about doing it? Is GW a safe option?
From a hobbyists point of view, we may not like how they run their business. We may not like their continual price increases, their meddling in the game and the way that there seems to be a new philosophy that every new release needs to be bigger, better and (more importantly) more powerful than what has come before.....but the fact remains that, collectively as hobbyists, we don't vote with our feet and we continue to support GW either with direct sales, 3rd party sales or even down to bits websites that indirectly support GW (those parts have to come from somewhere, right?)
So, the logic of this completely-uneducated-in-financial-matters hobbyist is that they may be a relatively safe bet......right?
2014/03/09 12:50:34
Subject: Re:GW share price development (7th March: Biggest investor sold its shares)
Hmm, falling share price, falling revenue, falling profit, major investors fleeing, management going on power shrinking the company in a growing market .... sounds like a safe bet (/sarcasm)
This thread needs killing. It seems to be just here for Kroot to go off on one of his usually anti-GW rants. More than half the comments he makes are just inaccurate and the ones that are to some degree accurate are laced with such biased language that it makes the information some what of dubious value.
Add in the personal attacks he makes against anyone with more knowledge than him and it makes this thread even more worthless.
Time to kill this. What exactly is it achieving?
2014 will be the year of zero GW purchases. Kneadite instead of GS, no paints or models. 2014 will be the year I finally make the move to military models and away from miniature games.
).
