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So I was going to reply to Peregrine in the original thread, but it seemed its own topic so I'm doing it here. No doubt Peregrine will see this so I hope you don't mind me grabbing your quote over here to reply to!

 Peregrine wrote:

No, they've chosen a route of "publish that rough draft ASAP because our next financial report is going to kill our stock price if we don't get 7th edition out in time". 40k isn't the result of reasonable design decisions made by intelligent professionals, it's a shameful mess of stuff thrown together without any overall plan and published without anywhere near adequate playtesting. There's simply no justification for the current state of the rules.

Are GW in financial straits? There's a lot about 7th that smacks of short-term cash-grab to me. The changes are mostly small - hardly new edition worthy, imo - with a few glaring exceptions that feel bolted on and all done just two years after the release of 6th. They've taken core rules out so that people have to buy other books (Stronghold) and thrown in things that seem designed to promote frantic model buying at great cost to fluff.

So if you accept that premise, what's the reason behind it all. Are GW really facing dire financial future? I've just had a look at the stock price and at first it appeared to soar upwards and then I clicked on the whole Year option (1Y).

http://uk.moneycentral.msn.com/investor/charts/chartdl.aspx?symbol=GB:GAW#{"zRange":"6","startDate":"2013-5-30","endDate":"2014-5-30","chartStyle":"mountain","chartCursor":"1","scaleType":"0","yaxisAlign":"right","mode":"pan"

What on Earth happened at the start of the Year? It seems to me that if they paniced around that time with crashing stock, we're now looking at potentially around the right time scale for the response (7th ed) to now start appearing. I mean normally I would say it takes a lot longer than five months to produce a new edition, but much (very much) is recycled and I'm not getting much of a play-tested feel to this.

Not trying to troll - genuinely concerned for the future of the game here. Are GW in panic mode?

Yes and have been for a while.

Not quite desperate enough to actually do things other companies would do in this situation, like fire the people that got them here and have sales.

I'm normally all for some good ole GW doom-mongering, but GW isn't going away for some time.

The next report will be telling if the trends continue, but their current financial situation doesn't seem to be great either.

Just how desperate are GW?

Somewhere between "A Little" and "Extremely".

The massive drop in January was the market response to the half-year report that showed an 11% drop in revenue (despite Space Marines receiving an update).

Is GW desperate? Who knows. The incompetence shown by the management (not referring to the Design Studio here, just the money guys, even though the designers are arguably incompetent too) in the last five-ten years is just mindblowing. As such, it wouldn't surprise me if they are under the impression that they are just fine and dandy, and have somehow convinced themselves that the revenue drop was just a hiccup, or an expected event that should sort itself out.

Their stock has been steadily increasing for a few months, but it is still not much higher than half of what it was.

Well their MO definitely appears to be to rush things out, but the motive is unclear. The two reasons I could come up with are:

1. Your reason -- they feel under the gun to get things out the door to turn around their financials.
2. Management genuinely does not value quality assurance.

I could see it being either, really. You give some good reasons for #1, but in support of #2, we've seen them cut every other aspect of their company to the bone, so why not QA as well? To me, I lean a little more towards #2 because everything else I've seen from GW indicates they are a poorly managed company, so that reason seems more consistent.

However, this is all just speculation -- I don't think it's possible to know exactly why without actually being in there and seeing what the hell is going on.

Maybe they're just waiting until another company buys them out so they can retire with their millions, and the game getting progressively worse every release is all part of their plan.

Share price is rising. 2013 revenue increased on 2012 and profits weer about 16%. Latest 6 month report available indicates about 13% profit, which is pretty close to the last annual one and is above 10%, so appears relatively healthy.

GW is unlikely to suddenly evaporate...

GW are still profitable and have cash in the bank, so they are not in what an accountant would call dire straits.

That said, the growth pattern of the business is not good. Things now are barely any better in real terms than before the LoTR boom and bust. GW have got a lot more efficient, and put their prices up a lot. This may mean their profits are being sustained against a growing loss of customers. Also, there are some suspicions that some of the efficiency driving has gone too far. One man stores, for example, have been mentioned as a cause of reduced sales.

The interim financial statement of last December was to say the least lacklustre, and makes the sudden early release of 7th edition look more like a desperate cash grab than a well prepared strategic plan. The 24th May release date cunningly gives them two weekends to book sales before their financial year closes the books.

Are they desperate for good reason of fear for the long term future? I think we have to wait 18 months to see the full impact of 7th edition.

Until they find a means to grow their customer base they are a dead company, it is only a matter of when.

They are still focusing on how to get money out of their existing customer base (try to convince a new player to fork out $100 just for books).

The only companies that have a future show a trend of increasing market share, until we see that, there is still a bit more of the old corporate carcass to live off yet.

 knas ser wrote:

What on Earth happened at the start of the Year? It seems to me that if they paniced around that time with crashing stock, we're now looking at potentially around the right time scale for the response (7th ed) to now start appearing. I mean normally I would say it takes a lot longer than five months to produce a new edition, but much (very much) is recycled and I'm not getting much of a play-tested feel to this.

GW's stock crashed at the start of the year because they released their half-year financial report that stated that even though that 6 month period corresponded to the re-release of their most profitable line (Space Marines), their revenue still dropped 10% and their profits dropped 30%.

 knas ser wrote:

Are GW in panic mode?

This "new" 40k edition is being released 2 weeks before the end of GW's fiscal year. And what better to bring a nice cash influx into the company than to force the majority of their customer base to re-buy a whole lot of very expensive rulebooks and new game accessories?

Do you believe in coincidences?

PhantomViper wrote:
Do you believe in coincidences?

I barely believe my dice are not sentient and conspiring against me. When it comes to actual real world events my faith in random coincidence is through the floor.

GW's business model for the last few years has been all about short term gains. They dont concern themselves with long term growth whatsoever. Its very much a company thats focused on getting from one financial report / dividend to the next

 ironicsilence wrote:
GW's business model for the last few years has been all about short term gains. They dont concern themselves with long term growth whatsoever. Its very much a company thats focused on getting from one financial report / dividend to the next

Which is customers are bleeding away and going to games run by companies that actually seem to give a damn, the last six months have screamed panic, especially going to just one staff member per shop, once you do that it's getting dire.

If you look at the 10 year period (or for the lulz, try MAX) you will see that their stocks have been skyrocketing and plumetting to near worthlessness at least once every decade

GW is there to say. This being said, however, they will still get good results again soon:

1. New edition launched. Despite being a gakky, half-assed excuse for a new edition, it will sell extremely well.

2. More 1-man stores: stores with more than 1 employee continously closed results in less money spent on people results in more money.

3. Centralized empire: shutting down entire HQs (e.g. Germany) and cutting down on translation etc. saves another big amount of money.

4. Price rises: Well, the usual. Higher prices etc.

GW is far from being "desperate" as in "being close to fail". They do have a big problem, though, and that is that everything they do to raise their profit now is a one-way road. You cannot close down HQs twice. You cannot cut down on translations twice. You cannot reduce a store below 1 person.

The overall amount of customers has been shrinking and shrinking. GW still makes a profit because of cutting down on cost and raising prices. The only big saving left for them is a reduction of modelling quality, aka having their stuff produced in China. It's the last thing they can do because they really have to think about changing their ways.

This, however, is not going to happen. Not soon. Kirby is a greedy, fat egomaniac who wants to squeeze the company dry and who doesn't give a single dime about quality, else he would have had a lot of people fired already. Until Kirby dies (or quits, whatever...), GW will keep its course.

Vote with your wallet.

 Sir Arun wrote:
If you look at the 10 year period (or for the lulz, try MAX) you will see that their stocks have been skyrocketing and plumetting to near worthlessness at least once every decade

This is very true.

Seems like they're in semi panic mode; they're really intent on selling more, but they don't really care to expand their target demographic. Seems like their opinion is that if they keep doing the stuff that they've been doing (but do more of it) and spend less on their stores, everything will work. Whether this is true, we'll see.

Personally I don't think they are "desperate" just narrow minded and arrogant. Things like not caring about balance and raising the prices are short-sighted, but excusable. Things like pretending the community doesn't exist and that social media never was invented are catastrophically insane to think that a modern company would ever entertain the idea, but GW does. They shun anything that provides an outlet for criticism, because they have deluded themselves into thinking criticism doesn't exist and, even worse, have the mentality that if you don't let any bad feedback get to you, then there is no bad feedback.

GW is pretty much the definition of the Ivory Tower. They're on a downward spiral but it's a long time before anything happens, if indeed it ever does. Their pace is not sustainable in any way, shape or form though. They already have cut costs (switching to plastic) but still raised prices, they've cut everything they can while still raising prices and spouting this crap about the best miniatures in the world.

Eventually there won't be anything left to cut and prices will be so high that nobody wants to pay it; look at the huge startup cost of getting into 40k today compared to years ago, just on individual unit price alone; their prices are I think 30%+ above inflation and to top it off they reduced what it costs to make, so they didn't have to have such huge increases but did so anyways. That's what is bleeding them dry, because people look at 40k as a game and then see the prices just for the rules plus a basic army (even if you go with just HQ + 2 Troops, which you generally play your first game and then expand, you're looking at probably over $200 and that's not factoring in paints and hobby supplies) and run screaming elsewhere.

WayneTheGame wrote:
(even if you go with just HQ + 2 Troops, which you generally play your first game and then expand, you're looking at probably over $200 and that's not factoring in paints and hobby supplies)

Rules book.
Codex
Battle force
Hobby starter set (paints, brush, glue)
Dice
Tape measure

$345.75 US retail.

This is in the scale of things a small time company.
Their management can do silly things because there are not enough share holders who care to hold them accountable.

There is no growth, so really they are only keeping the lights on to feed dividends to those on the board.

Yes, they will be around, much resources they can still cut back to save money and could squeeze a bit more money from the remaining fan base.

In the end, their IP I am sure could be snatched up later so no "sky is falling here".

I guess it is like folding a map wrong in front of me: seeing their management being so sure of themselves and now realizing they hit the end of the road of their current method of being "profitable".

Funny how Kirby says "we are a model company" but their flagship method to get into black is to publish a new BRB just before their end of year report.

I would say Kirby is desperate because he could ignore pretty much anything as long as some kind of profit is made, he is no longer even getting that so his bluster is no longer vindicated (Fire that S10 template at his back armor!).

They should just hire the people from dakka. I mean obviously most of them run multi-million dollar businesses and know what to do....

 Thud wrote:

WayneTheGame wrote:
(even if you go with just HQ + 2 Troops, which you generally play your first game and then expand, you're looking at probably over $200 and that's not factoring in paints and hobby supplies)

Rules book.
Codex
Battle force
Hobby starter set (paints, brush, glue)
Dice
Tape measure

$345.75 US retail.

Thanks for that. And that's for roughly the bare minimum, good for "Baby's First 40k Game" and not much else because nobody is going to want to always play 500 points or Kill Team games because that's all the new guy has.

In comparison here is a 35-point (normal sized game - roughly equivalent to a 1,500 point 40k army) Khador force for Warmachine:

Warmachine MkII Rulebook - $29.99
Forces of Warmachine: Khador - $34.99
Khador Battlegroup (Sorscha, Juggernaut, Destroyer) - $49.99
--- You can play basic games to learn here and start in a Journeyman League
Widowmakers - $19.99
--- You can play beginner-level games here
Winter Guard Infantry (Leader, 9 Grunts, 3 Rocketeers) - $49.99
Winter Guard Officer & Standard Bearer - $12.99
Kovnik Jozef Grigorovich - $10.99
Great Bears of Gallowswood - $37.99
Gorman di Wulfe (Merc) - $7.99
Khador Token Set - $11.99
Warmachine Template Set - $9.99
2x Khador Heavy Wreck Markers - 2x @ $9.99 = $19.98
Work Hobby Brush - $6.99
Fine Hobby Brush - $6.99
Primer - $9.99
Hobby Knife - $6.99
File Set - $8.99
Superglue - $6.99
Khador Colors Paint Set - $17.99

Comes to $361.80 USD; the only thing not included is dice because it seems the faction-specific dice are OOP or something, but since you don't need more than 6 dice in Warmachine that's almost negligible. Excluding the aforementioned dice this is $17 more than GW's bare minimum (and when you factor in third-party discounts, you're paying less) including paying for (IMO) overpriced wreck markers (and if you remove the wreck markers then without discounts it's cheaper than GW's entry point), and you have a 35 point army that lets you play the majority of non-tournament games that you'll encounter, albeit without a lot of variety in what you field.

 lobbywatson wrote:
They should just hire the people from dakka. I mean obviously most of them run multi-million dollar businesses and know what to do....

Ironically, that's what Wizzards of the Coast did when they pretty much ran their game into a wall one and half decade ago. They just went to the person who broke their game the hardest, the world champion, and hired him as rules developer. It went well.

I think the lead designer described it like this (paraphrased): "We obviously didn't know how our game works. So we got someone who does."

One only has to think that
- the CEO and Chairman are the same person,
- that person is the second largest entity to hold stock in GW, -- - that their stock price almost halved in light of a ~10% drop in interim profit and turnover,
- that the management statement with regard to final year performance was less than empathic
- that the chairman/CEO is very close to retirement age, and that their stockholding must be a significant part of their retirement plan
- that nearly every market report or source of information on wargaming seems to suggest that GW's dominance is slipping to a greater or lesser degree.

To see that even if GW themselves aren't exactly in the worst shape (still profitable, for now) there is likely an element of significantly heightened desperation at the very top of the organisation, if not all the way through.

 lobbywatson wrote:
They should just hire the people from dakka. I mean obviously most of them run multi-million dollar businesses and know what to do....

Yeah, you are probably right.

When 40k was released, it was not aimed to illiterate 12 year old boys. The target was 'educated young people'. GW took anything they found in the Fantasy, Horror & Science Fiction scene and merged it all in a single univese.

The background had a lot of humor but it was also really dark and, most than anything, deep. It was complicated and it had lots of references and eastern eggs directed to the players. In order to get into the game, the players needed to be:
- Young people
- Able to get countless cultural references
- Quite familiar with the Science Fiction, Horror and Fantasy most important settings. Videogames were not about stories then, so I am talking about BOOKS. The average player was expected to read a lot and understand it all.
- With a lot of disposable income.
- Able to cope with something that was quite controversial about politics and religion.

As a result, many of the veteran players I know eventually went to the University, and now they are Scientists (by the way, I think Robin Cruddace has a degree in Physics), or Medics... or really good at Economics. Or they are just people who read a lot and are well informed.
So there is a lot of talent here.

And, of course, you do not need to be talented to run a multi-million dollar business. You do need it to properly run a business though.

 lobbywatson wrote:
They should just hire the people from dakka. I mean obviously most of them run multi-million dollar businesses and know what to do....

What an utterly facile thing to say, and so unexpected, nobody has ever said anything similar before!!

For the record, though I have no desire to get I to a pissing contest with anyone, I hold qualifications in Business and Economics, I have been a senior manager in a company only slightly smaller than GW and I have run my own company that had turnover in the hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Am I allowed to comment now?

I sold something on Kijiji once.

Am I qualified to comment?

 azreal13 wrote:

 lobbywatson wrote:
They should just hire the people from dakka. I mean obviously most of them run multi-million dollar businesses and know what to do....

What an utterly facile thing to say, and so unexpected, nobody has ever said anything similar before!!

For the record, though I have no desire to get I to a pissing contest with anyone, I hold qualifications in Business and Economics, I have been a senior manager in a company only slightly smaller than GW and I have run my own company that had turnover in the hundreds of thousands of pounds.

Am I allowed to comment now?

Not claiming BS, but the problem with an anonymous forum is that anyone can claim anything. An 80 year old man can pretend to be a 16 year old girl, and a not-nosed ten year old can pretend to have a degree in Quantum Physics.

Why is it always Quantum Physics?