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2015/04/26 21:13:37
Subject: The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Mathematically incorrect, I'm afraid. It's all just media hype.
The polls consistently back up my position though. Labour and the Tories are neck and neck and have been for the entirety of the campaign, they are both hovering around the 270-80 mark. Obviously this is just polling data but if they are even reasonably accurate the SNP will play a key role in voting through a Labour government. If Labour don't take up the offer of SNP support there will definitely be a Tory government.
I'm afraid that the pollsters also said that Nick Clegg was going to win the last election, or at the very least make massive sweeping gains. I wouldn't believe everything you read, myself included.
I've laid out the maths, and you're free to disagree with my analysis. But even if Labour and Tory both hit the exact 280 mark, the SNP would still basically have to have seized another 35 seats to gain a majority in any sort of coalition. Even if we assume they took took every lib dem seat in scotland before taking a single Labour one, they'd still have to have taken twenty four Labour seats. Which means Labour would have had to have made up that twenty four seats the SNP will have taken off of them, plus a further twenty four seats to hit the 280.
In other words, Labour would need to seize a total of 44 seats in the rest of the UK, and the SNP 35 in Scotland. Which is highly unlikely. Not to mention the fact, that in a sane world, the Lib Dems won't be completely forced out of Scotland, meaning Labour would lose additional seats there, which would need to be made up in the rest of the country.
You're free to disagree with me on this one, but we usually only see swings like that historically with unpopular governments, and whilst Cameron isn't exactly high in the ratings right now, he's doing no worse than Miliband.
There are multiple meanings of the word 'deficit', and an economy can still be booming even whilst any form of deficit exists. As things stand, we're out of recession, the unemployment register is shrinking, and the pound is reasonably strong. We've lightened our vulnerability to the Grexit, formed some rather interesting financial links with China, and the drop in oil price is helping us as much as harming us. I make no comments with regards to the long term sustainability of our economy, but then again, you could say that about any country.
As things stand? Economically, we're doing reasonably well at the moment. There are plenty of countries that would love to be in our position.
This message was edited 3 times. Last update was at 2015/04/26 21:32:11
2015/04/26 21:49:50
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: The Lib Dems wanted it, but they weren't prepared to fight for it. Clegg could have walked away from the coalition at anytime if he couldn't get a referendum on PR. Instead, he stayed on for the ministerial car, and because he put power before principal. The Lib Dems deserve to wiped out at this election.
Clegg was either a woefully poor negotiator or he simply didn't want any of the things the Lib Dems claimed they wanted.
Clegg having a Portillo moment will be the highlight of the election/year/decade for me.
As things stand, we're out of recession, the unemployment register is shrinking, and the pound is reasonably strong. We've lightened our vulnerability to the Grexit, formed some rather interesting financial links with China, and the drop in oil price is helping us as much as harming us. I make no comments with regards to the long term sustainability of our economy, but then again, you could say that about any country.
As things stand? Economically, we're doing reasonably well at the moment. There are plenty of countries that would love to be in our position.
So our lords and masters keep telling us. They also told us,
Assad used chemical weapons on his own people, That Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, ETCETC.
So you believe what you want to. I'll keep my eyes open for flying pigs.
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2015/04/26 22:58:10
Subject: The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
As things stand, we're out of recession, the unemployment register is shrinking, and the pound is reasonably strong. We've lightened our vulnerability to the Grexit, formed some rather interesting financial links with China, and the drop in oil price is helping us as much as harming us. I make no comments with regards to the long term sustainability of our economy, but then again, you could say that about any country.
As things stand? Economically, we're doing reasonably well at the moment. There are plenty of countries that would love to be in our position.
So our lords and masters keep telling us. They also told us,
Assad used chemical weapons on his own people, That Saddam had weapons of mass destruction, ETCETC.
So you believe what you want to. I'll keep my eyes open for flying pigs.
Errr....
-Unemployment IS down, although it seems to be being filled more with self-employed people than people getting employment under companies Whether that is good is a separate debate (the Tories have started a lot of self-help with regards to initial business loans, but people so employed are making less than they generally were before), but there's no much doubt on that score, unless you're convinced the Illuminati are rigging the figures.
-The strength of the pound is a simple matter of exchange rates. That's not exactly something our 'lords and masters' as you put it, can pretend was true if it wasn't.
-We are out of recession, and in growth. I'm pretty sure the EU would be crying out loud if we were falsifying the figures on that score. Whether it is sustainable growth is another question, but like before, the fact that it IS the case isn't really in question?
-With regards to a potential Grexit, we're not immune, but everybody's been preparing for it for half a bloody decade now. The markets will be damaged if it leaves, but as we're not currently tied into the Euro, anbd we've been shedding as much involvement in Greek affairs as possible, we're less vulnerable to it than most in the EU.
I don't like the Tories particularly, and most of our economic boom is centred around London ( a flaw if I ever saw it). But the facts I've laid out, are more less facts, they've got nothing to do with party lines. And just for future reference....Assad DID use chemical weapons on his own people.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/26 22:58:37
2015/04/26 23:04:44
Subject: The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
I guess the facts are there, and the election will come down to whether a majority of people feel like the facts are real to them, or not.
The neglected regions of the UK still have a voice in the election, and the focus on the South East may end up biting both Labour and the Tories in the arse. Indeed it seems it already is.
It's a common problem I suppose, focus on a capital. Ireland has it even worse with the skew towards Dublin, and many smaller European nations are similar. France is heavily skewed towards Paris too. But no matter where that sort of skew happens, it presents political issues for whoever is perceived as "the Establishment". I think Germany does reasonably well because it's got several prosperous centres rather than being too skewed towards any one city (though some cities are less prosperous than others, especially in the north of Germany).
As an interested outsider, I think the most likely outcome is a hung parliament resulting in an unstable coalition. I agree that the "threat" posed by the SNP is very much overblown, but I also think the debate is pretty nasty and mean spirited. UKIP seems like a total sideshow to me.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/26 23:05:43
Definitely. Farage's goal at the moment is to grab Thanet, and to come second in a few more seats. Once he's done that, he can spend the next five years purging the more undesirable/rogue elements of his party (of which there are many, UKIP's rate of expansion has left him desperately clutching to the helm), and then try and nab another five or six seats next time.
Of course, that's dependent on him grabbing Thanet. If he fails, UKIP will be spent as a political force.
I think Cleggie will be more inclined to go back with the Tories then Miliband. Now he's 'dipped his wick' into actual power, he won't want to leave it, and the Tories are the known quantity this time around. He knows the people, he knows the politics, he knows what's up for negotiation, who is trustworthy, and who isn't. He'll also be looking to build a legacy now, and turning to Labour would almost be akin to admitting he made a mistake last time.
I'd peg it at 70% odds for a Tory/Lib Dem coalition again. Which, to be frank, is actually probably the most stable of the potential matches this time around.
2015/04/27 08:53:04
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
2015/04/27 09:18:51
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: The Lib Dems wanted it, but they weren't prepared to fight for it. Clegg could have walked away from the coalition at anytime if he couldn't get a referendum on PR. Instead, he stayed on for the ministerial car, and because he put power before principal. The Lib Dems deserve to wiped out at this election.
Clegg was either a woefully poor negotiator or he simply didn't want any of the things the Lib Dems claimed they wanted.
Clegg having a Portillo moment will be the highlight of the election/year/decade for me.
Same here. I'm working on the Friday, but I'll quite happily sit up until 5am for the chance to see Clegg getting a boot up the backside.
Definitely. Farage's goal at the moment is to grab Thanet, and to come second in a few more seats. Once he's done that, he can spend the next five years purging the more undesirable/rogue elements of his party (of which there are many, UKIP's rate of expansion has left him desperately clutching to the helm), and then try and nab another five or six seats next time.
Of course, that's dependent on him grabbing Thanet. If he fails, UKIP will be spent as a political force.
I think Cleggie will be more inclined to go back with the Tories then Miliband. Now he's 'dipped his wick' into actual power, he won't want to leave it, and the Tories are the known quantity this time around. He knows the people, he knows the politics, he knows what's up for negotiation, who is trustworthy, and who isn't. He'll also be looking to build a legacy now, and turning to Labour would almost be akin to admitting he made a mistake last time.
I'd peg it at 70% odds for a Tory/Lib Dem coalition again. Which, to be frank, is actually probably the most stable of the potential matches this time around.
To be fair to Farage, he probably thought UKIP would be the talking point of this election, but unfortunately for him, the SNP came along and stole their thunder.
A tenner says that the right-wing press will try to link Sturgeon to Brady. I wouldn't put it past them.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2015/04/27 09:21:12
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2015/04/27 09:53:57
Subject: The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Rick_1138 wrote: I cant see the link to Brady and Sturgeon. I think they will stick with the simple' Were doomed!" line.
However i am in 2 minds about staying up, as tbh if it is a hung parliament, it could take days to get any form of agreement together.
I stayed up for the referendum, but with this election i dont see the point as we wont know for a while.
I'll be honest with you. If somebody offered me the choice between 50 SNPMPs or Nick Clegg getting humiliated at 3am on May 8th, it would be a hard choice to make.
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2015/04/27 11:47:24
Subject: The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
2015/04/27 14:09:00
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
The new controversies with the DUP Health Minister at least drawing attention to some of the hypocrisy in how the SNP vs. DUP as coalition partners narratives has been playing out. The DUP recently told the Tories off for being so shortsighted with regard to the Union too.
This election is interesting in so many ways. It has the potential to be pretty destabilising, especially if the Tories/Libs win again and Cameron actually goes through with his referendum on Europe plan (which hardly seems to get any traction in the press).
I'd respect the choice of the voters obviously, but selfishly I hope it doesn't come to that because it would screw Ireland over a lot, and probably the rest of the EU too. And I think we need a strong EU - though a reformed one.
The poor man really has a stake in the country. The rich man hasn't; he can go away to New Guinea in a yacht. The poor have sometimes objected to being governed badly; the rich have always objected to being governed at all
We love our superheroes because they refuse to give up on us. We can analyze them out of existence, kill them, ban them, mock them, and still they return, patiently reminding us of who we are and what we wish we could be.
"the play's the thing wherein I'll catch the conscience of the king,
2015/04/28 09:30:18
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Well, I'm shocked. Really shocked. You can knock me down with a feather
Nobody knows what's going to happen on May 7th, but I can guarantee one thing - If I see Nick Clegg on the TV one more time, my foot is going through the screen!
Had to fight the urge this morning not to lash out. Hell, I may need to start a kickstarter to get a new 40 inch plasma widescreen
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2015/04/28 09:45:45
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: Hell, I may need to start a kickstarter to get a new 40 inch plasma widescreen
Don't kick it again, that's how you broke the first one! Get a OLED one, plasma's sooo last decade darling.
We love what we love. Reason does not enter into it. In many ways, unwise love is the truest love. Anyone can love a thing because. That's as easy as putting a penny in your pocket. But to love something despite. To know the flaws and love them too. That is rare and pure and perfect.
Chaos Knights: 2000 PTS
Thousand Sons: 2000 PTS - In Progress
Tyranids: 2000 PTS
Adeptus Mechanicus: 2000 PTS
Adeptus Custodes: 2000 PTS - In Progress
2015/04/30 13:20:06
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Just out of interest what happens if this does happen and they get a Yes vote, can the No vote expect the same in return?
Live your life that the fear of death can never enter your heart. Trouble no one about his religion. Respect others in their views and demand that they respect yours. Love your life, perfect your life. Beautify all things in your life. Seek to make your life long and of service to your people. When your time comes to die, be not like those whose hearts are filled with fear of death, so that when their time comes they weep and pray for a little more time to live their lives over again in a different way. Sing your death song, and die like a hero going home.
Lt. Rorke - Act of Valor
I can now be found on Facebook under the name of Wulfstan Design
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2015/04/30 13:28:56
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Just out of interest what happens if this does happen and they get a Yes vote, can the No vote expect the same in return?
Jim Sillars is not an MP or MSP, nor will he be in the future, having retired a few years back.
Sturgeon ruled out another referendum the other day. Most Yes people I know don't want another one, either. It's too soon. This is just the usual media blowing things out of proportion. As much as I like Sillars, he's got a habit of speaking like this, in opposition to official party policy.
For me, a valid reason would have to happen, such as Britain pulling out of the UK, but Scotland voting to stay in, for there to be another referendum.
It's to soon for another referendum. I'm happy to wait a few years.
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2015/04/30 14:48:54
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
It's to soon for another referendum. I'm happy to wait a few years.
Another one inside of two decades is too soon.
Unless of course, us lot down in England want to vote on whether or not we want to be free of the UK, with our new oil resources under Gatwick airport.
2015/04/30 15:29:59
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
I'm utterly perplexed as to why any Scottish person would feel the need for Independence but then want to be part of the EU.
I'm told on good authority that there are a lot of independent nations in Europe who are also EU members
Personally, I'd prefer a Switzerland/Norway arrangement.
This is one of the reasons why FPTP is cancer Ketara, the SNP are set to gain all the seats.
Nobody mentioned fixing FPTP when Labour or the Conservatives were winning majorities.
It wouldn't be a problem if there was a single Scottish Unionist party standing in opposition.
There is a single unionist party in opposition. The Liberals, Conservatives, and Labour all have policies that are so identical to each other, nothing separates them ideologically anymore.
It's to soon for another referendum. I'm happy to wait a few years.
Another one inside of two decades is too soon.
Unless of course, us lot down in England want to vote on whether or not we want to be free of the UK, with our new oil resources under Gatwick airport.
You may think I'm biased, but ultimately, it's up to the Scottish people. Tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, decade, century etc. It's not up to Sturgeon, Salmond, Cameron etc etc
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/30 15:43:37
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2015/04/30 15:52:47
Subject: The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/30 15:54:15
We love what we love. Reason does not enter into it. In many ways, unwise love is the truest love. Anyone can love a thing because. That's as easy as putting a penny in your pocket. But to love something despite. To know the flaws and love them too. That is rare and pure and perfect.
Chaos Knights: 2000 PTS
Thousand Sons: 2000 PTS - In Progress
Tyranids: 2000 PTS
Adeptus Mechanicus: 2000 PTS
Adeptus Custodes: 2000 PTS - In Progress
2015/04/30 16:03:31
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
You may think I'm biased, but ultimately, it's up to the Scottish people. Tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, decade, century etc. It's not up to Sturgeon, Salmond, Cameron etc etc
Sure. As long as they're willing to pay for it. These things cost money that could be better spent elsewhere, rather than rehashing the same question every five years.
Medium of Death wrote:This is one of the reasons why FPTP is cancer Ketara, the SNP are set to gain all the seats.
I would be willing to venture a thousand pounds, at any bookie, that the SNP will not win 'all the seats'. I would also only give 50/50 odds of them even taking half of the seats. The SNP are not as popular as the press makes out, in the same way Cleggie wasn't, and UKIP isn't (I haven't forgotten the polls claiming Farage would be taking dozens of seats just before the press got bored and moved onto the SNP).
2015/04/30 17:57:22
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Just out of interest what happens if this does happen and they get a Yes vote, can the No vote expect the same in return?
Jim Sillars is not an MP or MSP, nor will he be in the future, having retired a few years back.
Sturgeon ruled out another referendum the other day. Most Yes people I know don't want another one, either. It's too soon. This is just the usual media blowing things out of proportion. As much as I like Sillars, he's got a habit of speaking like this, in opposition to official party policy.
For me, a valid reason would have to happen, such as Britain pulling out of the UK, but Scotland voting to stay in, for there to be another referendum.
It's to soon for another referendum. I'm happy to wait a few years.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2015/04/30 17:58:25
Its hard to be awesome, when your playing with little plastic men. Welcome to Fantasy 40k
If you think your important, in the great scheme of things. Do the water test.
Put your hands in a bucket of warm water,
then pull them out fast. The size of the hole shows how important you are.
I think we should roll some dice, to see if we should roll some dice, To decide if all this dice rolling is good for the game.
2015/04/30 18:59:12
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie Thread- UK Edition! General Election Discussion P4 Onwards...
Medium of Death wrote: AV wouldn't benefit the SNP would it? Idoub they'd want anything but FPTP.
I'd like PR.
Then again I'm not sure whether changing the rules in a bad situation is a good idea.
I honestly don't know.
I was being facetious. The SNP and many smaller parties cry out for AV\PR voting instead of FPTP, however when they find themselves in power then they very much do not want to do the change as they now have influence.
If Scotland had PR or AV, we would have a larger SNP majority BUT the Labour and Tory block would be sizable and they SHOULD balance each other out.
however we all know in practice they will just bicker.
