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I kinda like the Exit Poll, all my labour friends are up in arms about it xD

 Ketara wrote:
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I just watched the question time with Cameron and Miliband, and was surprised at the depth of venom thrown at Miliband compared to Cameron. Cameron managed to spin and squeak his way out of all the difficult spots, but Miliband just kept getting nailed. And then he almost fell over on the way out, which was kind of entertaining to boot.

Milliband does seem to get targeted quite a lot, and not just on strictly political matters. I don't know of it's because he's seen as weak, or odd, or what, but he does typically get a barrage levelled at him, it seems.

No plan, no decent politicians, and no ideals.

I think I could say the same about the Tories though. Or rather, they do have ideals, but those ideals are mainly lining the pockets of the fat cats and bankers at the expense of everyone else.

But just on character and putting policy aside, I would much rather Milliband than Cameron or Clegg. He's not perfect, but he's the least of three weevils.

Now saying that UKIP might pass the Lib Dems in terms of becoming the UK's third party..

Been toying with the idea of moving to the continent over the past few years, how are things over there?

First 3 seats are all to Labour. What is interesting though is that UKIP and Conservatives are near enough tied on votes so far.
Greens and Lib Dems are no where to be seen
However this is very early stages.

 Paradigm wrote:

I think I could say the same about the Tories though. Or rather, they do have ideals, but those ideals are mainly lining the pockets of the fat cats and bankers at the expense of everyone else.

Hey, at least they have some ideals! On a more serious note, the Tories are alright at the moment, from a structural standpoint. They stand for everything they've ever stood for (namely small government, mild xenophobia, mild disregard for the poor, incentives for business, etc). Like it or hate it, you generally know where they stand. They've run an average campaign, not particularly remarkable or incompetent. In terms of politicians, Cameron is distinctly average, but Osborne and May are waiting in the wings as the heirs apparent. Together, they make a reasonably strong/competent team (like them or hate them).

Miliband and Labour on the other hand, are obsessed with trying to be the Lib Dems. Socialism has been ditched, along with any commitment to the working class, so they're just sort of....floating. They have no long term plan or ideals beyond 'say anything to get into power'. Miliband is a poor public face, and the only two other two known are Harriet Harman and Ed Balls, discredited and generally loathed relics of the last government. There's a real dearth of talent and personality in the Labour party at the moment, and I think losing this election will hurt them to the point where they'll need to reform, or be in serious trouble.

First seat to Conservatives...this is going to be a long night.

Agree completely with you Ketara.

UKIP is running riot at the moment. I can't say I saw this level of swing coming. If Farage seizes Thanet, UKIP will be around for the foreseeable future as an actual party, it would appear.

Rumours are rife though that Tories have won that seat... If that's the case Farage will be gone as leader of UKIP as I understand it.

Wasn't Al Murray also in the hunt for Thanet South?

 Ketara wrote:
UKIP is running riot at the moment. I can't say I saw this level of swing coming. If Farage seizes Thanet, UKIP will be around for the foreseeable future as an actual party, it would appear.

Eh, I still don't see UKIP in its current form surviving a Conservative-led Coalition, simply as the promised referendum will make or break them. Either the nation rejects the idea of leaving the EU, proving the people don't want their one policy, or they accept it, leaving UKIP with nothing.

Of course, they could reinvent themselves like the SNP have to an extent after the Y/N referendum, but I don't think they have much mileage to do that.

The conservative Thanet candidate is a UKIP defector so that is going to be interesting

In the brief footage of Farage we've seen, he doesn't exactly look happy.

I think they'll be calling for the 'dead parrot sketch' tomorrow morning with the Lib Dems... They're being smashed apart so far...

Looks like I underestimated the SNP. And overestimated Labour's ability to pick up seats elsewhere. At this rate, it'll be a DUP/Conservative coalition. Be interesting to see where the night goes.

 Ketara wrote:
Looks like I underestimated the SNP. And overestimated Labour's ability to pick up seats elsewhere. At this rate, it'll be a DUP/Conservative coalition. Be interesting to see where the night goes.

Isn't that what ya'll have now?

Do you think that EU membership referendum played a large role here?

We have a Liberal Democrat/Conservative coalition right now.

This is absolutely brutal, Labour and the Liberal Democrats are getting decimated. At this rate, the Conservatives might actually win a majority. We're about midway now, and they've gained twelve seats for four lost.

 Ketara wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
Between 1998 and 2003, as shown by this graph by HM Treasury.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8636701.stm

In fact they got more years with more budget surplus than all the Conservative governments since 1980.

Speaking purely from an economic standpoint, that was due to them inheriting a balanced budget and a growing housing bubble from Major/Thatcher, as opposed to any policies of their own.

The hysteresis effect affects all governments.

Electing a 20-year-old? Slim pickings, or decadence?

 jasper76 wrote:
Electing a 20-year-old? Slim pickings, or decadence?

I think nobody expected the sheer sweeping victory of the SNP, so not all their candidates were exactly well-vetted choices. I have to admit, I completely underestimated it myself.

As things stand, assuming cons don't lose any more seats, they're four gains away from a coalition majority with the DUP.

And as Fraser Nelson put it; 'So far, Miliband has lost 33 seats - that's 33 fewer than Gordon Brown was able to win in the middle of a recession in 2010. He's a goner.'

A similar thing happened in Queensland not last election but the one before, the Liberals came swinging through in a big way and a young guy got elected in what was normally a safe labor seat. He got to live off that until the next election. Lucky bugger

Okay. Assuming no more losses or equivalent gains to balance them out, a Conservative/DUP coalition or a Conservative majority will be the outcome of this election, something I only gave a twenty percent odds to previously.

Didn't see that one coming! I think Sturgeon may be about to get a rude awakening about the SNP acting as a 'voice' in the near future, despite their recent gains.

 Paradigm wrote:
In the brief footage of Farage we've seen, he doesn't exactly look happy.

He's finding the FPTP keeps out loonies, UKIP have 12% of the vote and only one seat.

 whembly wrote:

 Ketara wrote:
Looks like I underestimated the SNP. And overestimated Labour's ability to pick up seats elsewhere. At this rate, it'll be a DUP/Conservative coalition. Be interesting to see where the night goes.

Isn't that what ya'll have now?

Do you think that EU membership referendum played a large role here?

Currently Conservative and Liberal Democrat, so whether it's a Conservative majority or Con/DUP pact, there's going to be a definite shift in attitude at the top (despite what people have been saying about the Lib Dems).

However I think (I hope!) that the referendum is only a minor issue in this. I think the two big things are the economy and Scotland.

A large portion of the country are still traumatised by what happened in 2008 and will do pretty much anything to avoid a repeat. There is a definite perception that the current government have done pretty well with the economy and that Labour aren't competent/can't be trusted. How true that is is debatable, but when did truth have anything to do with how people vote?

Secondly it seems there's been a big last minute surge in England to counter the rising support for the SNP in Scotland; again I think there was a perception that Labour were going to be beholden to the SNP for a majority, so Scotland would get whatever it wanted at the expense of local English regions. Again, debatable about how true this was, but the Conservatives really played it up in the last week or so and it seems to have struck a nerve.

55 (probably 56) out of 59 Scottish MPs will be SNP, combined by another 5 years of the Tory's ideologically driven austerity. I can all but hear the ink fading on the Treaty of Union already.

 Ketara wrote:
I think Sturgeon may be about to get a rude awakening about the SNP acting as a 'voice' in the near future, despite their recent gains.

I think that if there is another Tory government it will actually make the SNPs end goal easier. The SNP will make a tremendous and highly vocal push for the type of policies that the people of Scotland actually want and the Torys will essentially ignore them. Labour is a spent force in Scotland and is unlikely that they will be revived if they keep to the their current course of aping the Tories so I think that the SNPs political future for a generation is assured. What may have damaged the SNP is if they damaged the Labour vote to the extent that it prevented Labour from office while allowing the Tories in, which didn't happen and in fairness never would have.
All in all I can only see the resentment towards Westminster growing and that can only increase the likelihood of an independent Scotland. I look forward to the day when I can get my Scottish passport.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
55 (probably 56) out of 59 Scottish MPs will be SNP, combined by another 5 years of the Tory's ideologically driven austerity. I can all but hear the ink fading on the Treaty of Union already.

 Ketara wrote:
I think Sturgeon may be about to get a rude awakening about the SNP acting as a 'voice' in the near future, despite their recent gains.

I think that if there is another Tory government it will actually make the SNPs end goal easier. The SNP will make a tremendous and highly vocal push for the type of policies that the people of Scotland actually want and the Torys will essentially ignore them. Labour is a spent force in Scotland and is unlikely that they will be revived if they keep to the their current course of aping the Tories so I think that the SNPs political future for a generation is assured. What may have damaged the SNP is if they damaged the Labour vote to the extent that it prevented Labour from office while allowing the Tories in, which didn't happen and in fairness never would have.
All in all I can only see the resentment towards Westminster growing and that can only increase the likelihood of an independent Scotland. I look forward to the day when I can get my Scottish passport.

I have to say I agree with your interpretation; I don't agree with the sentiment, as I think we are all much better off with Scotland in the union, in the same way that the UK is far better off in the EU. Trying to go it alone in the modern world is foolish at best and potentially disastrous.


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I hope some kind of federalised arrangement is top of Cameron's list, otherwise the whole situation could spiral rapidly beyond the point of no return.

 Jadenim wrote:

I hope some kind of federalised arrangement is top of Cameron's list, otherwise the whole situation could spiral rapidly beyond the point of no return.

Given his behaviour after the indyref I would doubt it.The only way that a federalised approach would work would be with a full English parliament along side the Welsh and NI assemblies and the Scottish parliament. I just can't see that ever happening with our current political class. Camerons 'plan' will be the same half measures wrapped up with political point scoring that has been Westminster's preferred method for decades; I fully expect to hear a lot more about EVEL in the coming weeks.

Am I right in thinking that the rise of the SNP is less to do with any kind of revival in genuine Scottish seperatism, but is more due to the SNP holding to left wing values, which resonates with Scottish voters who no longer see their values reflected by the modern Labour party?

If so, the way forward isn't necessarily a division of the union. The way forward may be for the SNP to evolve towards a new left wing party, and take the ground that Labour has abandoned, and that the Liberal Democrats flirted with for short while.

 sebster wrote:
Am I right in thinking that the rise of the SNP is less to do with any kind of revival in genuine Scottish seperatism, but is more due to the SNP holding to left wing values, which resonates with Scottish voters who no longer see their values reflected by the modern Labour party?

If so, the way forward isn't necessarily a division of the union. The way forward may be for the SNP to evolve towards a new left wing party, and take the ground that Labour has abandoned, and that the Liberal Democrats flirted with for short while.

Yes, that's the primary driver of the SNP's surge; although there are other reasons such as the strength of Nicola Sturgeon and the SNPs proven track record in the Scottish parliament, a large part of the SNPs share of the vote could be explained by people who vote SNP in Scottish elections transferring that vote to a Westminster election for the first time. Many people who voted SNP want to retain the union although thats a relative term given that the the % of Scots who voted for the SNP in this election is only around 10-15% higher than voted Yes in the indyref so its a reasonable assumption that the majority of SNP voters want an independent Scotland. I'm sure that this is a subject that will be polled to death over the coming months though.

Given that Scotland routinely votes to the political left and the UK as a whole routinely gets a right wing government there is a growing a(nd already high) discontent with Westminster within Scotland so its not hard to see just why the SNP has the support that it does.

Well. Its a Conservative majority.

Ed Balls just lost his seat! Ha!

Just woke up and looks like Conservatives are gonna get a majority, or are the front runners for a coalition.

Don't think my labour friends will be best pleased.

The Lib Dems had a shocking night. A result of their supposed weakness in the coalition? among other things.

Tories can form a minority government if necessary.

SNP did what the polls suggested. Look s like Labour are shattered there.