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Well, Games Workshop has been a bad joke for some time.

Hadn't noticed it, but not a surprise.

@AllSeeingSkink - To people who aren't involved in the hobby, Warhammer is a way more recognized brand than Games Workshop.

 warboss wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Wow, much more profit.

Um, yeah, because they didn't have a 4.5 million exception expense this year (iirc it was their website redesign) and they also paid around a million GBP less in taxes. Sales and actual revenue are down.

We have a winner.

Bottom line, no spin, profits are down again.

Range management – as discussed above we are reviewing our range to ensure that we are exploring all opportunities. The risk is that we don’t fully exploit all the opportunities that are available to us.

This is exciting chatter. GorkaMorka, Custodes, Blood Bowl, Necromunda, Squats. Christ, even the potential for someone to maybe consider releasing Squats again makes me smile.

The odds of 40K getting the Sigmar treatment are very slim. They're too greedy for that.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
How much have GW's prices increased over the year?

That's a really hard question to answer, because GW's new thing is to not increase the price of (most) old kits, and shoulder price increases entirely on new releases. So for example, Devastators see a big jump in prices, but Command Squad sees none. So to answer the question, you'd need to know what the revenue breakdown in sales between old kits and new kits were...



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 MeanGreenStompa wrote:

 warboss wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Wow, much more profit.

Um, yeah, because they didn't have a 4.5 million exception expense this year (iirc it was their website redesign) and they also paid around a million GBP less in taxes. Sales and actual revenue are down.

We have a winner.

Bottom line, no spin, profits are down again.

Bottom line, no spin, profits are up, actually. As in the operating profit number is higher.

But if you read down the next couple of posts, you'll notice that Warboss ninja'd me before I mentioned exactly what he wrote.

 Talys wrote:
@AllSeeingSkink - To people who aren't involved in the hobby, Warhammer is a way more recognized brand than Games Workshop.

Perhaps, but it's definitely not what most "customers" call them.

Maybe it's just me, but the commentary in this report actually seems to be written to gamers more than previous years. It could just be me, but some of the comments just seem directed at gamers more than investors this time round.

 gorgon wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:


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 gorgon wrote:

 Harriticus wrote:
Jeez GW is taking a long time to just collapse already

I have it on good word that they've been in a death spiral ever since they moved to white metal in the early '90s.

Smug much?

Look at all they've done in the last year just to tread water, and while the intro makes a lot of the right noises, it's still just words and modern GW is almost defined by the right idea being executed poorly, so I wouldn't crow too much just yet.

No, it's perspective much. Conversations extremely similar to these were seen on rec.games.miniatures.warhammer 20 years ago.

I realize that reality doesn't fit in with certain agendas and world views. But people have literally been declaring GW's imminent demise for a couple decades now, and yet somehow that turd still floats.

You do grasp that this is the same spurious nonsense as the "people complained about Thing, now Thing is changing and people are still complaining!" argument, yeah?

Come back when you can prove that the people pointing out the issues with GW today based on current information are the exact same people who were on those message boards 20 years ago, and maybe, just maybe you would have the tiniest hint of a point(because even then, an argument can be wrong in one context and be correct at a later time when the context has changed).

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Talys wrote:
@AllSeeingSkink - To people who aren't involved in the hobby, Warhammer is a way more recognized brand than Games Workshop.

Perhaps, but it's definitely not what most "customers" call them.

Maybe it's just me, but the commentary in this report actually seems to be written to gamers more than previous years. It could just be me, but some of the comments just seem directed at gamers more than investors this time round.

Yeah, I agree. Most customers call them GW. But it's not like they're rebranding the company; just the sign on the store, right? It would be no different than Microsoft calling retail outlets "Windows Stores" instead of "Microsoft Stores" ... I mean... whatever A rose (or a turd) by another name is still... you know, all that

I think it's just to give the more recognizable brand a bit more visibility, since they have physical stores and this means free advertising to people who don't know who GW is.

I do agree with you -- the notes seem more customer-centric than in previous years. That's not a bad thing! Maybe they realize that the investors barely read it because it's a tiny company in the grand scheme of things, while gamers and hobbyists obsess over it


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Good news for shareholders, btw. +5.5%, looks like, and pretty stable.

I like how GW acknowledged that adults play instead of force feeding us the "little Timmy" line.

However, 2015 has started to crater to the vets imo. We saw Harlequins and Admech released as mini factions within a month or two of each other.

As a old school player I am so excited to see my clowns get some much needed love. Also the Admech are a huge fighting force in the setting and people have been clamouring for them to be made into a playable force for a long time.

@MrFlutterPie --

Yeah, I suspect AdMech had to do with a big part of that spike in 2015 sales. Our local independent has done REALLY well on AdMech stuff -- as quick as they come in, they fly off the shelf. Any time there's a sale, the entire AdMech section empties out.

Harlequins, not so much, though personally, I love the models. The original metal harlequin box was one of my favorite kits of all time.

 Talys wrote:
@MrFlutterPie --

Yeah, I suspect AdMech had to do with a big part of that spike in 2015 sales. Our local independent has done REALLY well on AdMech stuff -- as quick as they come in, they fly off the shelf. Any time there's a sale, the entire AdMech section empties out.

Harlequins, not so much, though personally, I love the models. The original metal harlequin box was one of my favorite kits of all time.

That was pretty much inevitable though, a fair few of us have been after AdMech for years(decades, even), and I have no doubt solid sales of the FW Mechanicum line were a big factor in GW deciding to do the plastic range. Similarly I expect this apparent plastic Heresy release will sell like hotcakes even if GW do push some really inane ruleset with it(providing the FW books keep coming of course). They should get some credit for recognising the obvious opportunities there, and Az does have a point that it's possible to read the new CEO's comments in a fairly positive way for vets, but AoS will be the real test; how they roll it out going forward, the pricing structure, their willingness or otherwise to alter their plans if necessary etc.

Hell, they could even win me over on AoS very, very easily; let FW put out a more vet-/gamer-focused variant of the core rules(ie one with a sane army selection system and some pretense of balanced/structured play) set in the Realhammer world and I'll happily shovel cash at them. EDIT: Or better yet, let Forgeworld release a new version of Mordheim & the other specialist games - this is what gets me about GW, it's not actually that difficult or expensive for them to keep most of the people they've pissed off on-side and happy(and so providing them with positive word of mouth advertising), which is why a lot of people come to the conclusion they're either thick or being deliberately obtuse.

 Talys wrote:

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
How much have GW's prices increased over the year?

That's a really hard question to answer, because GW's new thing is to not increase the price of (most) old kits, and shoulder price increases entirely on new releases. So for example, Devastators see a big jump in prices, but Command Squad sees none. So to answer the question, you'd need to know what the revenue breakdown in sales between old kits and new kits were...

GW managed to mask their declining sales for years simply by increasing prices year on year at a faster rate than they were losing customers. There is, or at least was, a very interesting graph that Osbad(?) posted in a previous years financial report thread that tracked average price increase across their whole range and GW's fluctuating revenues since (IIRC) the mid 00's, it was instrumental in convincing me that GW was beginning its death spiral. Its possible its still floating around here or on Warseer somewhere. I realise that average price increase is an imprecise method but as GW will never, ever release the real figures they are at least a reasonable approximation.

Given that I no longer buy anything from GW anymore and as such I have no idea how much they have raised their prices in the last 12 months (although I am sure that they have). I wouldn't be surprised if GW's reported revenues are worse, not that they are good, than they appear for the afore mentioned reason.

Freezing salary rates while paying out dividends... not the kind of company I want to support honestly. Everything about their new direction (super rapid product release, abandonment of formation-based fantasy) isn't for me... I'm glad the new CEO can write coherently, and is somewhat open to adjusting for the market (very slightly)... but yeah, they're as merciless as ever.

 Talys wrote:
@MrFlutterPie --

Yeah, I suspect AdMech had to do with a big part of that spike in 2015 sales. Our local independent has done REALLY well on AdMech stuff -- as quick as they come in, they fly off the shelf. Any time there's a sale, the entire AdMech section empties out.

Harlequins, not so much, though personally, I love the models. The original metal harlequin box was one of my favorite kits of all time.

I saw the same in my area. People went crazy over the Admech stuff (not surprised) and while the talk about Harlequins was positive few people rushed out to buy them.

*obvious anecdotal disclaimer*

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 Talys wrote:

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
How much have GW's prices increased over the year?

That's a really hard question to answer, because GW's new thing is to not increase the price of (most) old kits, and shoulder price increases entirely on new releases. So for example, Devastators see a big jump in prices, but Command Squad sees none. So to answer the question, you'd need to know what the revenue breakdown in sales between old kits and new kits were...

GW managed to mask their declining sales for years simply by increasing prices year on year at a faster rate than they were losing customers. There is, or at least was, a very interesting graph that Osbad(?) posted in a previous years financial report thread that tracked average price increase across their whole range and GW's fluctuating revenues since (IIRC) the mid 00's, it was instrumental in convincing me that GW was beginning its death spiral. Its possible its still floating around here or on Warseer somewhere. I realise that average price increase is an imprecise method but as GW will never, ever release the real figures they are at least a reasonable approximation.

Given that I no longer buy anything from GW anymore and as such I have no idea how much they have raised their prices in the last 12 months (although I am sure that they have). I wouldn't be surprised if GW's reported revenues are worse, not that they are good, than they appear for the afore mentioned reason.

We know revenue has remained flat. (Giving them the benefit of the doubt and using the adjusted figure)

We know average transaction value has likely increased due to the number of price increases, even if they weren't unilateral as in previous years.

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that unit sales volume has dropped.

I genuinely think that, properly executed, there's a lot to be optimistic about for the future, but if the best you can say about a report is "it's no worse than last year!" then it hasn't been a great year.

 RiTides wrote:
Freezing salary rates while paying out dividends... not the kind of company I want to support honestly. Everything about their new direction (super rapid product release, abandonment of formation-based fantasy) isn't for me... I'm glad the new CEO can write coherently, and is somewhat open to adjusting for the market (very slightly)... but yeah, they're as merciless as ever.

In fairness they can't freeze salaries due to the introduction of a 'living wage' next April. I think that the majority of GW's front line staff are on minimum wage at the moment so they will all be getting a pay increase next year.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
I think that the majority of GW's front line staff are on minimum wage at the moment

Wat.

-Runs one-man store
-Has to deal with lots of smelly whiny sods day in/day out
-Forced through loops by GW
-In a job that requires regular training
-Paid less than needed to live, never mind chip into the hobby they wanted the job for

I got paid more for lifting boxes in a warehouse for the NHS.

 Azreal13 wrote:

We know revenue has remained flat. (Giving them the benefit of the doubt and using the adjusted figure)

We know average transaction value has likely increased due to the number of price increases, even if they weren't unilateral as in previous years.

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that unit sales volume has dropped.

I genuinely think that, properly executed, there's a lot to be optimistic about for the future, but if the best you can say about a report is "it's no worse than last year!" then it hasn't been a great year.

The revenue for the industry (in North America) also remained flat, so GW basically stayed with the pack -- which is good news, considering that there are more manufacturers than ever, and it's the hardest for the company that has the most customers to hang on to them with new, interesting stuff nibbling at the edges.

Remember: last week, the meme was, "the industry is flat, and GW lost 10% of revenues; therefore, the rest of the pack did 10% better". So, in fairness, one must now adjust that statement to, "the industry is flat, and GW is also flat; therefore, the rest of the pack didn't really grow the way we thought it did".

What I'd love to know is how profitable some of the other companies (like Mantic, PP) are. Of course, barring some leak, we never will


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 Selym wrote:

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
I think that the majority of GW's front line staff are on minimum wage at the moment

Wat.

-Runs one-man store
-Has to deal with lots of smelly whiny sods day in/day out
-Forced through loops by GW
-In a job that requires regular training
-Paid less than needed to live, never mind chip into the hobby they wanted the job for

I got paid more for lifting boxes in a warehouse for the NHS.

I don't know if that's true. But if so: those people are free to work somewhere else that pays more and requires less of them!

I hope GW pays its staff more than minimum wage. Most people I've come across working GW stores seem to be "worth more" in salary than, say, a cashier in a mall or at a fast food restaurant. I don't know how desirable the job is -- if you're young and a real GW fan, would you want to work there, and how much less would you take by way of salary in order to work where you want?

To give you an example, as a youth, I would have gladly worked for nearly nothing... or nothing at all... for my local NHL hockey team, but I would have wanted to be paid a LOT more to do some menial, boring job

Fair point, but if you chose a job to be closer to your hobby, only to find that you cannot afford the hobby anymore, it'd really get to you that you are *this* close to it, and cannot do anything about it.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 RiTides wrote:
Freezing salary rates while paying out dividends... not the kind of company I want to support honestly. Everything about their new direction (super rapid product release, abandonment of formation-based fantasy) isn't for me... I'm glad the new CEO can write coherently, and is somewhat open to adjusting for the market (very slightly)... but yeah, they're as merciless as ever.

In fairness they can't freeze salaries due to the introduction of a 'living wage' next April. I think that the majority of GW's front line staff are on minimum wage at the moment so they will all be getting a pay increase next year.

That's great for next year, although I was referring to this which lasts until December:

 CaulynDarr wrote:
This hasn't been mentioned yet:

I have set a goal of getting the business into sales growth in 2015/16 and have asked staff to accept a salary freeze until December
2015 to allow us to maintain our cost to sales ratio. If we deliver sales growth in the first half of 2015/16 I have agreed to back date any
salary reviews to 1 June 2015. We are all working hard to deliver this goal.

They are on a salary freeze in the same year they payed out a dividend?!?

Lack of sales growth isn't the staff's fault - their targets for stores are by all accounts extremely high, it's their overall strategy that is resulting in loss of sales volume each year...

AllSeeingSkink wrote:

 Talys wrote:
@AllSeeingSkink - To people who aren't involved in the hobby, Warhammer is a way more recognized brand than Games Workshop.

Perhaps, but it's definitely not what most "customers" call them.

Maybe it's just me, but the commentary in this report actually seems to be written to gamers more than previous years. It could just be me, but some of the comments just seem directed at gamers more than investors this time round.

For those 'who aren't involved in the hobby' name recognition for either is pretty much nil.

D&D is more recognized, I believe, but is financially a much smaller market than 'Warhammer'.

Next half should be decent for GW - AoS will be at least a bump.

The question remains as to whether AoS is sustainable - if it does what I kind of expect it to do... rvenues for the year after will take a hit.

Other thing that helped GW this time around - they finally got rid of the albatross that was the Chapterhouse case, and have been quieter about trying to defend their Moat and Castle.

Kirby seemed a lot more retrained this time around... but paying out a dividend while freezing pay... does not look good.

The Auld Grump

 Selym wrote:
Fair point, but if you chose a job to be closer to your hobby, only to find that you cannot afford the hobby anymore, it'd really get to you that you are *this* close to it, and cannot do anything about it.

I have no idea about GW stores, but I know quite a few people who work at the local independents, and it's not easy to enjoy miniature hobbies in general, working at hobby stores, even with staff discounts. Not to say that some don't play 40k and such, of course -- and of course, everyone's situation is different. Some still live at home with mom & dad, making most of what they earn disposable income.

I'm curious. When you see GW minis painted at GW stores, do those minis belong to GW or to the painter (staff)? Or to put it another way, when the person stops working at the store one day, do they take those minis with them? Some of the stores have an awful lot of minis for someone to afford at minimum wage (if that's indeed what they're paid)

-Freeze worker pay
-Pay workers f*k all
-Raise prices

I have found GW's theme tune:

The results are actually good for the industry and hobby as a whole. Less product sold to less people through fewer channels means more market share for smaller companies and more companies that can enter the market as prices can be higher while still popping in under the high end of GW.

The product line reset is going to be very interesting. I expect we'll see a sigmarization of 40k. I think AoS represents what GW believes the majority of their customers want rather than just what a noisy few say. People say 40k sells fine so GW won't change it, but I think GW believes the elements in AoS that also happen to be in 40k is why 40k sells well. So when the time comes for a top down product line reset the elements in AoS will be what is preserved.

Salary freezes for employees and then increasing dividends by 25% from 16p to 20p is just hilarious.

 Talys wrote:
Some of the stores have an awful lot of minis for someone to afford at minimum wage (if that's indeed what they're paid)

I don't know about these days, but they used to get some pretty substantial discounts... and were 'encouraged' to buy as much as possible.

It's one of the common complaints that I've heard from ex-GW staff... The money wasn't great to start with, and they felt a certain amount of pressure to spend too much of it on product.

 Talys wrote:

 Azreal13 wrote:

We know revenue has remained flat. (Giving them the benefit of the doubt and using the adjusted figure)

We know average transaction value has likely increased due to the number of price increases, even if they weren't unilateral as in previous years.

Therefore it is reasonable to assume that unit sales volume has dropped.

I genuinely think that, properly executed, there's a lot to be optimistic about for the future, but if the best you can say about a report is "it's no worse than last year!" then it hasn't been a great year.

The revenue for the industry (in North America) also remained flat, so GW basically stayed with the pack -- which is good news, considering that there are more manufacturers than ever, and it's the hardest for the company that has the most customers to hang on to them with new, interesting stuff nibbling at the edges.

Remember: last week, the meme was, "the industry is flat, and GW lost 10% of revenues; therefore, the rest of the pack did 10% better". So, in fairness, one must now adjust that statement to, "the industry is flat, and GW is also flat; therefore, the rest of the pack didn't really grow the way we thought it did".

What I'd love to know is how profitable some of the other companies (like Mantic, PP) are. Of course, barring some leak, we never will

The industry didn't stay flat, it grew. You're trying to argue that GW managed to tread water in what isn't even their biggest territory historically by making a comparison to the sector but that's just fluffing. The reality is GW is competing against the whole of the tabletop gaming market, just like every other wargaming manufacturer. GW's competition isn't solely other wargames companies, it's everything else in the market which will typically attract the same sort of customer. Granted, some will be closer competition than others but I'm sure there's plenty of people posting here which also spend money on other items you'll typically find in your typical hobby shop that you're trying to exclude, be it CCGs, board games or even comics.

That wargaming stayed flat in a growing tabletop gaming market is a failure of the wargaming companies, including GW, to capitalise on the increased interest and spending on related products. Don't try and paint it as some sort of success on their part because they haven't failed worse than their counterparts.

Although personally I think that a lot of money has gone into wargaming through KS which won't have shown up on the ICV report and definitely won't have made it into GW's pockets.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:
How much have GW's prices increased over the year?

Someone mentioned that the report said an average of 3% increase across the range. But I suspect that's brought down by things like the old metal range which is still pretty large but hasn't had a price increase in years (despite the fact finecast was brought in because the cost of metal was going up).

 Talys wrote:

Of course, GW making a profit of USD$32M in one year, probably exceeding the REVENUES of almost every other direct competitor doesn't mean anything at all to the business acumen of those running GW. It must all be because of blind luck and the sheep who have GW products on autoship!

knickers twisted...

Go away. We are all plotting the downfall of GW in here.

 MeanGreenStompa wrote:

 warboss wrote:

 Talys wrote:
Wow, much more profit.

Um, yeah, because they didn't have a 4.5 million exception expense this year (iirc it was their website redesign) and they also paid around a million GBP less in taxes. Sales and actual revenue are down.

We have a winner.

Bottom line, no spin, profits are down again.

The $4.5MM extraordinary expense was due to the website and restructuring costs. I believe the website was about $1.0MM. The other $3.5MM was due to the lease buy outs (not sure how many locations but I thought at one point people were saying close to 100 locations closed throughout the world due to their restructure - I didn't see a specific number though), closing several of the country's sales HQ offices, and severance to employees.

 Silent Puffin? wrote:

 RiTides wrote:
Freezing salary rates while paying out dividends... not the kind of company I want to support honestly. Everything about their new direction (super rapid product release, abandonment of formation-based fantasy) isn't for me... I'm glad the new CEO can write coherently, and is somewhat open to adjusting for the market (very slightly)... but yeah, they're as merciless as ever.

In fairness they can't freeze salaries due to the introduction of a 'living wage' next April. I think that the majority of GW's front line staff are on minimum wage at the moment so they will all be getting a pay increase next year.

Minimum Wage going up? Expect price raises sometime between next March and June.

GW stuff for non-brits, EVERYTHING for brits.