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2017/07/28 19:47:05
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Well, obviously it's a list... I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be a list for.
Abusing Guilliman mainly. Spam devastators with missile launchers that kill everything through rerolls. It's not the full list, just a brief example of what you can expect to see on the table.
It's called a thick skin. The Jersey born have it innately.
2017/07/29 02:59:15
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Slayer-Fan123 wrote: You can tout "reliability" but the fact is that the average roll on a D6 is 3.5. You can proclaim it might be worse than that during the whole game, and I can proclaim the opposite. Mortal wounds are unreliable in this instance due to the randomness you proclaim to be the issue for the D6 damage on the Bloodthirster. Difference here is you need the 6 to wound, whereas the Bloodthirster doesn't need such a gimmick.
Actually there are significant numbers of cases where 'reliability' makes a mathematically demonstrable difference, mainly because overkill wounds don't overflow in 8e. Against anything with 2 or 3 wounds, Gulliman has a 100% kill rate with unsaved wounds, but the Bloodthirster has a 1/6 or 2/6 chance to require a second unsaved wound. Without overflow, the extra damage results of the D6 are lost. Given the relative frequency of such models in the game, you could proclaim the opposite, but you'd be wrong.
2017/07/29 06:37:51
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Well, obviously it's a list... I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be a list for.
Abusing Guilliman mainly. Spam devastators with missile launchers that kill everything through rerolls. It's not the full list, just a brief example of what you can expect to see on the table.
Guilliman and EIGHT full Devastator squads is not a legal list. You would need at least two HQ units to make it legal (for each Heavy Support-focused detachment) at which point this is literally your whole army.
Also, because Devastator squads come with Seargeants, that's a grand total of FORTY models you need to fit within 6" of Girlyman. Hint: This isn't physically possible.
Leaves about 150 points for a vehicle or 10 extra SM members total spread around the squads (ablative wounds).
32 (+8 one shots) re-rolling hit/wound missiles heading downrange is no joke - good odds of wiping out many a vehicle/horde before it reaches you. At least it feels like it would be that way; Missile Launchers are damn solid this edition, and that's before buffs as well.
I don't have the models to try it out, but it seems relatively strong - get some deep strikers in there to tie things up and the game would go a little interestingly; could spend the 150 points on a Conscript circle or a bunch of Ratlings. Would love to see this cheese fight/be fought on the table.
This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2017/07/29 07:23:57
2017/07/29 07:38:10
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
TheNewBlood wrote: Also, because Devastator squads come with Seargeants, that's a grand total of FORTY models you need to fit within 6" of Girlyman. Hint: This isn't physically possible.
6 inches = 152.4 mm Girlyman = 60 mm Area of 182.4mm radius Circle = 104520mm
Area of 180mm radius Circle = 101787mm
Area of Girlyman = 2827mm
Let's say 100,000 mm Area of a Square 25mm base = 625mm
100,000 / 625 = 160 models within 6"
Let's say the source of the Aura is 25mm
Area of 164.9mm = 85426mm
Area of 160mm = 80424mm
Leaves about 150 points for a vehicle or 10 extra SM members total spread around the squads (ablative wounds).
32 (+8 one shots) re-rolling hit/wound missiles heading downrange is no joke - good odds of wiping out many a vehicle/horde before it reaches you. At least it feels like it would be that way; Missile Launchers are damn solid this edition, and that's before buffs as well.
I don't have the models to try it out, but it seems relatively strong - get some deep strikers in there to tie things up and the game would go a little interestingly; could spend the 150 points on a Conscript circle or a bunch of Ratlings. Would love to see this cheese fight/be fought on the table.
vs T7 3+
32 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3 * 3.5 = 58.99 Tank Damage
vs MEQ Frag 32 * 3.5 * 32/36 * 3/4 * 1/3 = 24.88 dead MEQ Krak 32 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3 = 16.85 dead MEQ
vs GEQ 32 * 3.5 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3 = 58.99 dead GEQ
I would personally suggest dropping 2 squads of ML for Lascannons
(24 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3 * 3.5) + (8 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 5/6 * 3.5) = 62.68 Tank Damage
This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at 2017/07/29 11:04:38
TheNewBlood wrote: Also, because Devastator squads come with Seargeants, that's a grand total of FORTY models you need to fit within 6" of Girlyman. Hint: This isn't physically possible.
6 inches = 152.4 mm Girlyman = 60 mm Area of 182.4mm radius Circle = 104520mm
Area of 180mm radius Circle = 101787mm
Area of Girlyman = 2827mm
Let's say 100,000 mm Area of a Square 25mm base = 625mm
100,000 / 625 = 160 models within 6"
Let's say the source of the Aura is 25mm
Area of 164.9mm = 85426mm
Area of 160mm = 80424mm
Leaves about 150 points for a vehicle or 10 extra SM members total spread around the squads (ablative wounds).
32 (+8 one shots) re-rolling hit/wound missiles heading downrange is no joke - good odds of wiping out many a vehicle/horde before it reaches you. At least it feels like it would be that way; Missile Launchers are damn solid this edition, and that's before buffs as well.
I don't have the models to try it out, but it seems relatively strong - get some deep strikers in there to tie things up and the game would go a little interestingly; could spend the 150 points on a Conscript circle or a bunch of Ratlings. Would love to see this cheese fight/be fought on the table.
vs T7 3+
32 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3 = 16.85 Tank Damage
vs MEQ 32 * 3.5 * 32/36 * 3/4 * 2/3 = 49.77 dead MEQ
vs GEQ 32 * 3.5 * 32/36 * 32/36 = 88.49 dead GEQ
I would personally suggest dropping 2 squads of ML for Lascannons
(24 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3) + (8 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 5/6) = 17.90 Tank Damage
Thanks for the math; that's actually significantly less scary than I thought it'd be - you're wiping out on average, 1 tank a round (unless it's a super heavy, and then you're not even killing it).
MEQ get melted, but that's not too surprising given the sheer volume of firepower; but there aren't likely to be that many marines on the table to begin with.
GEQ are in an interesting spot; sure, you kill a lot of them (almost 2 full Conscript squads), but... so what. I'm estimating a rough number of ~60 Orks dead a round (based on 50 MEQ/90 GEQ); which is maybe two squads.
Overall: Melts infantry, but only 1-2 vehicles a round at best - overall, not too scary, provided you have some armor in your list. Deadly to troopers sure, but that's assuming perfect conditions (range, LOS, not tied up in melee). Still; very versatile - get some deep strikers/first turn charges into that circle though, and things become a LOT different (for one round anyways; Heroic Intervention on Gulliman will go a long way to mitigating this however). That said, it is VERY reliable thanks to long range and all the rerolls, so - you'll be eating that much damage each round unless you can wipe them out quicker (or force them to fall back).
A couple Manitcores/Basilisks plinking away at these marines from behind cover will force them to come to you real quick.
Edit: Is that ~17 tank damage including the d6 damage from the missiles, or is that just the number of shots that aren't stopped by an armor save? If that's not including the d6 damage, tank killing power goes up tremendously (~59 expected wounds output). Of course, that's also idea conditions (T7, SV3+); heavier vehicles will lower this expected result by a large margin.
This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at 2017/07/29 08:28:35
2017/07/29 09:10:25
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
A couple Manitcores/Basilisks plinking away at these marines from behind cover will force them to come to you real quick.
Edit: Is that ~17 tank damage including the d6 damage from the missiles, or is that just the number of shots that aren't stopped by an armor save? If that's not including the d6 damage, tank killing power goes up tremendously (~59 expected wounds output). Of course, that's also idea conditions (T7, SV3+); heavier vehicles will lower this expected result by a large margin.
HOLY WHAT A MASSIVE MISTAKE!
You're right, I forgot the d6 damage!
I also gave Frag AP-2, Another massive mistake
Everything should be fixed, note to self don't do math while sleep deprived.
I am glad someone worked it out.
I have been sat here for thirty minutes going "well, it looks right to me. But that means the average devastator squad would only do about 2 wounds to a vehicle and yet in our games they quite regularly blow them up. Maybe we are just really lucky?"
I don't see how RG's point cost can be defended.
2017/07/29 11:17:48
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
I am glad someone worked it out.
I have been sat here for thirty minutes going "well, it looks right to me. But that means the average devastator squad would only do about 2 wounds to a vehicle and yet in our games they quite regularly blow them up. Maybe we are just really lucky?"
I don't see how RG's point cost can be defended.
Hah, Good thing I show my work! I could blame that it was late last night when I posted. Either way, I don't think it's fair to say Girlyman is unfair without at least showing the match without Girlyman.
Honestly the tedium of constantly rerolling hits and wounds with Gulliman is the worst part about him. It would be cool if he could pick at the start of the turn one unit within x" (make it a longer range - 12" for example) and they can reorll hits and wounds. But everything? No brainer. That way the passive but lesser buffs of Lieutenants and Captains are not superseded by him but are a different option.
2017/07/29 14:20:26
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Also, because Devastator squads come with Seargeants, that's a grand total of FORTY models you need to fit within 6" of Girlyman. Hint: This isn't physically possible.
Uhm wait... why would every model need to be within 6 ?
Isnt it enough to have one model of a unit in the aura ? He is giving his aura to units, not models, right ?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2017/07/29 14:21:18
2017/07/29 21:32:46
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Also, because Devastator squads come with Seargeants, that's a grand total of FORTY models you need to fit within 6" of Girlyman. Hint: This isn't physically possible.
Uhm wait... why would every model need to be within 6 ?
Isnt it enough to have one model of a unit in the aura ? He is giving his aura to units, not models, right ?
Yup. You only need a single model for the aura.
2017/07/29 21:38:06
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Well, obviously it's a list... I'm just not sure what it's supposed to be a list for.
A game of warhammer 40k to be played with those models using the Spearhead and Super Heavy Auxiliary detachments I suspect, though they lack an HQ.
Or just use Auxillarys Detachments and lose the Command Points.
"Oh ****, I have no CP for rerolls!"
CP are used for a lot more then rerolls if you have a codex.
Of which, only one is really worthwhile (Auspex Scan to stop Deep Strike). Others are irrelevant (require models not in list) or are redundant since they give rerolls to hit, or cause mortal wounds which mean nothing when you force wounds.
Arguably the most important stratagem is the standard one that keeps Guilleman alive by rerolling his resurrection. Might be worthwhile taking a cheap HQ just to unlock 6 Devastator Squads.
YMDC = nightmare
2017/07/30 00:39:01
Subject: Re:Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
I am glad someone worked it out.
I have been sat here for thirty minutes going "well, it looks right to me. But that means the average devastator squad would only do about 2 wounds to a vehicle and yet in our games they quite regularly blow them up. Maybe we are just really lucky?"
I don't see how RG's point cost can be defended.
Hah, Good thing I show my work! I could blame that it was late last night when I posted. Either way, I don't think it's fair to say Girlyman is unfair without at least showing the match without Girlyman.
So I played in the first mission of the fate of konor campaign and one of my opponents was using ultramarines with Guileman, first time against him so was really surprised at how powerful he is. My opponent was a friend of mine that plays competitively but doesnt really bring "cheese" lists. He brought mostly primaris with guileman and his chapter ancient keep all of us guys in a bubble, so basically they got rerolls to hit rerolls to wound 9 command points and if they died they get to make one last shot. This game was a mess because i didn't realize that attackers can only score at the end of the game if im in his deployment, he managed to kill both of my razorwings in two turns and in the middle of the game I figured out that its actually not to my benefit to attack his stuff because they always get to make a shot potentially killing or wounding my raiders/venoms.
Game ended on turn 6 because he had gotten 9 kill points where the most I could score was 7, really frustrating game. He always gets to use his command points and being able to recover them is broken. The big thing about guileman in that game was that most he did was shoot things he never made it to combat but just by looking at his stat line it would have been a slaughter.
2017/07/30 17:52:38
Subject: Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Talamare wrote: Hah, Good thing I show my work! I could blame that it was late last night when I posted. Either way, I don't think it's fair to say Girlyman is unfair without at least showing the match without Girlyman.
I will say Girlyman adds about ~28 Devastators worth of power.
28 / 4 = 7
7 * 165 = 1,155 points
Guilliman does seem to be the most OP single unit. For comparison sake, this is what the most OP spam unit is capable of. Short version: add up your list's four damage/kill count potentials and this list still exceeds the combined total.
1500 pts of Brimstones
...plus a bunch of HQ tax... irrelevant models to the demonstration.
1500/(2*10)= 75 squads of Brimstones, each casting Smite 1/3 of the time at the cost of a 2 pt model
Since Smite deals 3.5 mortal wounds average... 3 lost models vs 3.5 lost wounds, it always makes its points back even against other Brimstones (unless target has fewer than 3.5 wounds left).
75 * 1/3 smites * 3.5 = 262.5 Mortal Wounds in 1 turn, more than the combined total of wounds Theory Guilliman's entire army puts out.
Would kill over 1/3 of my own 2pt model army. Probably would wreck any other turn 1.
And this is without Auras. Without any model serving as Guilliman. I'm not so sure Auras and Guilliman are the biggest problem in the game.
I think smite deals 2 damage avg, and the range is quite limited.
2017/07/30 18:29:34
Subject: Re:Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
sossen wrote: I think smite deals 2 damage avg, and the range is quite limited.
Gah, you're right. The range doesn't matter if you line up front line and advance every turn but they are tanky enough to ignore half your shooting anyway.
It's called a thick skin. The Jersey born have it innately.
2017/07/30 18:31:16
Subject: Re:Guilleman points....GW does not know balance
Talamare wrote: Okay, Here is a tricky one to math out, so let's work it out
What if Storm of Fire Warlord Trait
Wounding Rolls of 6 causes the weapon to gain AP-1
So this is the rule
3/6 results = Normal AP 1/6 results = AP-1
2/6 results = reroll
reroll
-3/6 results = Normal AP -1/6 results = AP-1
-2/6 results = Miss
18/36 + 6/36 = 24/36 Normal AP 6/36 + 2/36 = 8/36 AP-1
4/36 = Miss
Let's take our original result for T7 3+
32 * 32/36 * 32/36 * 2/3 * 3.5 = 58.99
and modify it with new info
(32 * 32/36 * 24/36 * 2/3 * 3.5) + (32 * 32/36 * 8/36 * 5/6 * 3.5) = 62.68
62.68 - 58.99 = an extra 3.69 Tank Damage
Guilleman has to take the Adept of the codex trait?
As far as GW does not know balance....well they probably know it to some extent however commercial imperatives often trump balance concerns in their priorities it seems.
~3000 (Fully Painted)
Coming Soon!
Death Guard 5100 pts.
Daemons 3000 pts.
