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queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
Twitter isn't a useful barometer, but I think they're mostly in a frenzy because the Prime Minister changed guidance on a Sunday evening with no clarity and encourage people to go back to work whilst observing social distancing rules under threat of fines in currently near-impossible circumstances and have no idea what this means for their income.
But yeah, it's probably just that people need their hands held.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
twitter is no indicator of the populance.
Infact any social media should be taken with a grain of salt for the percieved anonimity of people leading to trollish and wierdly aggressive behaviour.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/11 09:47:00
https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/766717.page A Mostly Renegades and Heretics blog.
GW:"Space marines got too many options to balance, therefore we decided to legends HH units." Players: "why?!? Now we finally got decent plastic kits and you cut them?" Chaos marines players: "Since when are Daemonengines 30k models and why do i have NO droppods now?" GW" MONEY.... erm i meant TOO MANY OPTIONS (to resell your army to you again by disalowing former units)! Do you want specific tyranid fighiting Primaris? Even a new sabotage lieutnant!" Chaos players: Guess i stop playing or go to HH.
The majority of the population not knowing what to do without handholding, in what for the vast majority is a first in a lifetime pandemic, doesn't sound that odd to me. Not exactly something that people tend to be prepared/educated for in advance.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/11 09:37:25
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
twitter is no indicator of the populance.
Infact any social media should be taken with a grain of salt for the percieved anonimity of people leading to trollish and wierdly aggressive behaviour.
Oh yeah I'm fully aware. It's just amusing.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/11 09:47:23
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
Twitter isn't a useful barometer, but I think they're mostly in a frenzy because the Prime Minister changed guidance on a Sunday evening with no clarity and encourage people to go back to work whilst observing social distancing rules under threat of fines in currently near-impossible circumstances and have no idea what this means for their income.
But yeah, it's probably just that people need their hands held.
Not surprising. boris wants to keep the corona thing going on for another 9-10 months at least. Too convenient scapegoat for him. So he'll do anything to muddle things further.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
Twitter isn't a useful barometer, but I think they're mostly in a frenzy because the Prime Minister changed guidance on a Sunday evening with no clarity and encourage people to go back to work whilst observing social distancing rules under threat of fines in currently near-impossible circumstances and have no idea what this means for their income.
But yeah, it's probably just that people need their hands held.
Somewhat Ironic...
But, that's why the fine BS needs to be done away with. Credit the people with some autonomy, stop micromanaging every single thing in our lives. You could have a set of standards and practices in regard to social distancing, and each business should be incentivised to follow them as best as possible.
I've been working through this whole thing, with social distancing paid lip service but not really possible to actually implement in any real way. We've had no issues. Granted public facing spheres are different, but let people do what they need to do. People arent stupid, despite it often seeming so.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
Twitter isn't a useful barometer, but I think they're mostly in a frenzy because the Prime Minister changed guidance on a Sunday evening with no clarity and encourage people to go back to work whilst observing social distancing rules under threat of fines in currently near-impossible circumstances and have no idea what this means for their income.
But yeah, it's probably just that people need their hands held.
Not surprising. boris wants to keep the corona thing going on for another 9-10 months at least. Too convenient scapegoat for him. So he'll do anything to muddle things further.
Yeah, I mean why wouldn't a pm who just got voted in with a massive majority, enjoying overwhelming popularity, who was just about to make actual progress with brexit, want this debacle that he is clearly struggling with, and that is frankly not really doing him any favours in popularity stakes to carry on indefinitely? Honestly...
This message was edited 5 times. Last update was at 2020/05/11 12:16:56
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
Twitter isn't a useful barometer, but I think they're mostly in a frenzy because the Prime Minister changed guidance on a Sunday evening with no clarity and encourage people to go back to work whilst observing social distancing rules under threat of fines in currently near-impossible circumstances and have no idea what this means for their income.
But yeah, it's probably just that people need their hands held.
Somewhat Ironic...
But, that's why the fine BS needs to be done away with. Credit the people with some autonomy, stop micromanaging every single thing in our lives. You could have a set of standards and practices in regard to social distancing, and each business should be incentivised to follow them as best as possible.
I've been working through this whole thing, with social distancing paid lip service but not really possible to actually implement in any real way. We've had no issues. Granted public facing spheres are different, but let people do what they need to do. People arent stupid, despite it often seeming so.
First things first, unless your baseline is 'idealistic dreams of prepper militiamen in North Carolina', no one is being micromanaged in the UK. You've been at pains, repeatedly, to set out how vague and hands-off the actual legislation is when you've been advocating ignoring suggested rules to go and wander around the coubtrtside.
That aside, you are aware that, even if all that was suggested by government was 'a set of standards and practices', the overwhelming majority of persons unable to work from home would still not actually be in a position to make decisions about when and how to return to work for themselves if they want to eat and pay rent, yeah? They're completely at the mercy of employers, who may entirely ignore suggested policy, at which point they what? Put up with it or lose their jobs, I guess?
Obviously, the main problem just now is that that's literally the position English workers are in.
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suggested 'advice'. yes, I do suggest going to the countryside, and will continue to do so. its good for you.
the legislation is somewhat vague, insofar as it allows for different subjective interpretation, which is why its an issue, and why I advocate for its abolition. it was brought in because people practically begged for rules they could follow in order for them to feel safe.
It was the employers I was talking about.
Automatically Appended Next Post: suggested 'advice'. yes, I do suggest going to the countryside, and will continue to do so. its good for you.
the legislation is somewhat vague, insofar as it allows for different subjective interpretation, which is why its an issue, and why I advocate for its abolition. it was brought in because people practically begged for rules they could follow in order for them to feel safe.
It was the employers I was talking about.
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How? There are plenty of people who have been working throughout this whole thing, with no issues. if your employer takes adequate precautions, whats the issue? you cant stay cocooned in your house forever, and nor should the government encourage that.
This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/11 14:16:05
Well, since we seem to be writing on cave walls with dirt, Strawman not valid argument.
I'm not building a strawman. You've explicitly stated the former and the latter is a result of what you're advocating.
To be clear in case I've misunderstood you: You're position is that the government should set out some basic standards that employers should seek to meet? I'm assuming this is without legal recourse given that you've been clear that people should be trusted to make up their own minds about what to do, then clarified that by people you mean employers, and if you wanted legal recourse you'd be advocating a more strict system than we have currently, not less. All correct?
Ok. If so, the result is employers dictating what their employees can choose to do. If you just say here's what we think you should do, have at it. That's what you get. Employers can decide to reopen as they see fit and workers are obliged to return to work or be laid off. People need money and are, at best, being offered a Hobson's choice. I get you probably think employees being offered a Hobson's choice re: working conditions is perfectly acceptable, because you're a pretty fervent laissez faire character, and that's a position you're free to take, but yoi must be aware that in the current climate, those employees can't extactly hop on their bike and trot off elsewhere.
Easy E wrote: "Workers who can not work from home are expendable workers"
That's the message I keep hearing in my head......
Mine too but it's weird to me how they get treated as expendable but labelled as "essential." Well, not weird once you figure out it's just PR spin to make it easier to overlook their mistreatment.
The dichotomy between the two lock down experiences, the unemployed or struggling essential workers for whom the pandemic has been a terrible experience and the work from home get to wear pajamas all day workers for whom the pandemic has brought tangible benefits like less work stress, no commute, more family time. There doesn't seem to be a lot of mingling of the two either socially or geographically and I think that causes a lot of difficulties in discussing the lockdown. It's also hard to find media reporting that addresses both viewpoints.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: How? There are plenty of people who have been working throughout this whole thing, with no issues. if your employer takes adequate precautions, whats the issue? you cant stay cocooned in your house forever, and nor should the government encourage that.
Because for years we have been hearing about how these "essential jobs" are for "college kids, teenagers, or part-timers" only and not intended to provide a living wage or benefits here in the States. Now, they are required to keep the economy functioning. Maybe they are more important than we have been led to believe after all?
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queen_annes_revenge wrote: How? There are plenty of people who have been working throughout this whole thing, with no issues. if your employer takes adequate precautions, whats the issue? you cant stay cocooned in your house forever, and nor should the government encourage that.
Because for years we have been hearing about how these "essential jobs" are for "college kids, teenagers, or part-timers" only and not intended to provide a living wage or benefits here in the States. Now, they are required to keep the economy functioning. Maybe they are more important than we have been led to believe after all?
Of course they are important. Even if a job is only an intermediate step on a career ladder, it's still important. Those jobs need doing or they wouldn't exist in the first place.
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"Suggestions" and "Suggested Guidance" means bupkis. You either have to tell people what to do, or don't. If you don't, then you're liable. And heck, while we're at it, even if you do tell people what to do, they won't listen, they'll get sick, and then complain you didn't tell them what to do. Lose lose.
The best position for any governmental agency is to put out "guidance", be consistent in messaging and application, and then decide how draconian you need to be about enforcement.
It's amazing how unimportant government is until you need it.
Think about how smart the average person is. Then remember that half of the people are dumber than that.
That should tell you all you need to know about how much "hand holding" is necessary.
Most people are barely scraping by on a good day, and can barely look up, and they're expected to be responsible adults and figure out all that's happening, with much of it potentially life threatening, and with fifteen different pundits, talking heads, papers, influencers, facebook, and the government all telling you different stuff. Yeah, that works. +facepalm+
"There is rational thought here. It's just swimming through a sea of stupid and is often concealed from view by the waves of irrational conclusions." - Railguns
queen_annes_revenge wrote: How? There are plenty of people who have been working throughout this whole thing, with no issues. if your employer takes adequate precautions, whats the issue? you cant stay cocooned in your house forever, and nor should the government encourage that.
Because for years we have been hearing about how these "essential jobs" are for "college kids, teenagers, or part-timers" only and not intended to provide a living wage or benefits here in the States. Now, they are required to keep the economy functioning. Maybe they are more important than we have been led to believe after all?
Of course they are important. Even if a job is only an intermediate step on a career ladder, it's still important. Those jobs need doing or they wouldn't exist in the first place.
Lets be real though, working the register at MacDonalds or packing boxes for Amazon aren't going to be an intermediate step on a career ladder for most, because there are far more people at the bottom than needed higher up. And most jobs really don't require experience packing boxes or flipping burgers for a few years.
Important during a pandemic is really questionable if you take those two examples. Do people really need a Big Mac or (given the well known example) order a dildo from Amazon at the risks of those employee's life? Yes in normal society these jobs need doing, when trying to fight a pandemic though?
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/11 15:53:05
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
2000 pts Imperial Fists
6000 pts Disciples of Fate
3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Sqorgar wrote: He belonged to a organization in Ethiopia that the US has listed as a terrorist group
Iran has labeled the US government as being a terrorist organization, guess we're all terrorists now too. Being a member of a terrorist organization, when that terrorist organization is either a government or a political party within a government is essentially a meaningless metric as its often dictated by political expediency more than it is a reflection of the threat or danger posed by a person or organization. As far as the TPLF is concerned, to the best of my knowledge the US doesn't label them as a terror organization, though they are listed in the Global Terrorism Database (which is non-governmental). Thats not to say that the TPLF isn't bad company, it very much is, just that this bit here isn't something you should stake your case on.
As far as Tedros involvement, I cannot find anything from a verifiable or reliable source to indicate Tedros involvement with the TPLF prior to 2001 - by this point the ruling party in Ethiopias government which was going through internally driven reforms to shift it away from its previous hardline militancy, which isn't to say the TPLF wasn't (or isn't) still extreme or military, but all the talk of him being a "literal terrorist" seems predicated on the idea that he was some sort of paramilitary leader or some nonsense for the previous decade, despite the fact that he was in the UK earning degrees (Masters from University of London in 92, and a PhD from the University of Nottingham in 2000 (something that I would imagine would be difficult for him to do if he was, in fact, a "literal terrorist"). The accusations of him being a terrorist also overlook the fact that he was a junior pencil pusher in the previous government - the Derg - with the TPLF fought against and overthrew - the TPLF probably would have killed him had he not fled to the UK in 1987 - so its extremely unlikely that he was involved with the TPLF early on or was a member in '91 as some allege (especially given that he was a student in London at the time).
As health minister, he stole aid to children, covered up cholera epidemics, extradited journalists so that they could be tortured in prison, and indebted Ethiopia to China to the tune of billions.
The WHO is run by an ex-terrorist who literally stole medicine from sick children, supports genocidal warlords, and takes marching orders from a totalitarian government that makes dissenting citizens disappear from their homes - I feel COMPLETELY justified in calling the WHO a terrorist organization.
Cholera accusation notwithstanding, do you have sources as to Tedros involvement in any of these accusations? First I've heard of his involvement in anything aside from the Cholera coverup. As far as Cholera is concerned, its certainly within the realm of possibility and plausibility, but for what its worth at the time of his candidacy to lead the WHO a number of investigations by various media sources and government agencies turned up little to support his involvement.
though I was off in the original idea, which was that this thing was no more dangerous than the flu. But the flu kills about 50k people in the US alone, not worldwide. That was my mistake. The flu is estimated to kill about 290,000 to 645,000 people a year worldwide... which this thing is looking like it will be a healthy part of that balanced breakfast.
If by healthy part you mean "significantly more". The administration expects 100k dead in the US by the end of May, and 3000 dead *per day* by early June. Basic math should tell you that if those numbers stabilize there we'll be looking at 200k by the end of June, and roughly an additional 100k per month in the US alone every month after that. The number of confirmed dead from COVID globally is already basically 290k, and thats before you account for China most likely under-reporting by a factor of 10 and all the unknowns from nations that are known to be underreporting or fudging numbers like Brazil and Russia, as well as all the "third world" nations like those in Africa and Latin America that don't have the infrastructure to adequately track and report this. And this has only been going on for about 4 full months now and you're comparing it to numbers for what the flu does over the course of a *full year*.
And all evidence is pointing to the fact that lockdowns have had no measurable effect on the spread or severity of the virus since all countries, regardless of measures, follow the same basic curve of infection and we now something close to a control group with Sweden not locking down at all and not being worse for wear.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, and that is definitely an extraordinary claim you're making, as everything indicated by actual policy experts indicates that the lockdowns are having a *huge* effect. I'm really not sure where you got the idea that every country follows the same basic curve when thats demonstrably not been the case, to say that Sweden and New Zealand (which did lock down and has for all intents and purposes beat the virus with a very small case count and only a literal handful of deaths) are on the same curve is entirely 100% laughably incorrect. Theres a reason why all the models are now indicating *more* depths as a result of the lockdowns being lifted. You're also ignoring the fact that despite Sweden not locking down, it has imposed various restrictions (closing schools for students over the age of like 12 or something, banning gatherings greater than x many people, etc.).
To also say they are "not worse for wear" discounts the fact that it has a small population and a very low population density. They may not be worse for wear in relation to the US - a country with a population 30+ times larger and a density 4x larger - or New Jersey - a state with a similar population but a density 48x greater, but by relation to its neighbors in Norway, Denmark, and Finland, the results in Sweden are absolutely catastrophic, especially once you normalize the data on a per capita basis: https://imgur.com/a/xo62Ee9
The only reason you *think* they are following the same curve is because you're looking at log charts and evidently not understanding the numbers on the y-axis.
Just about everything I said back at the beginning of this thread is being born out by study after study
This, except the opposite. Study after study has repeatedly torpedoed the various shifting goalpost arguments you've made. I'm really not sure where you're drawing data to justify the assertion to the contrary as it wouldn't fit any of the studies I've seen regardless of the political bias of the source.
leading to news articles that are starting to admit that the IFR is not 3%-6%
IFR was never was stated to be 3-6% in the first place. CFR maybe, but not IFR. The results we are seeing from COVID today are consistent with most of our predictions from 3+ months ago in terms of both IFR and CFR. There was some hubbaloo of a number in that neighborhood in Feb/March, but those numbers were the percentage of fatalities from *reported* cases (i.e. CFR - case fatality rate), not the IFR. Bit of a difference there and you attempting to equate the two is disingenuous (if I'm being polite) and moronic (if I'm not).
the Imperial College model was complete bs (and having seen the code for it, it's WAY more bs than I originally expected)
except it isn't? The ICL model has actually born out to be reasonably accurate, the 1.1-2.2 million death figure that was reported was always the worst case "do nothing" scenario in which governments took zero response whatsoever and individuals made no changes to their behavior - which was already essentially obsolete when it was published because by that time governments globally had already taken steps to address the crisis and individual behavior had already altered in an unforseen and unprecedented manner. The model *always* included more conservative scenarios with varying degrees of individual and governmental response that indicated a lower number of deaths - anyone who spent more than 5 seconds glancing at headlines already knew this and was aware of it, your own ignorance of it is not indicative of a failure on the part of the model. https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/
Contrary to what you may have read or heard, British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has not suddenly reduced his worst-case projection of COVID-19 deaths in the U.K. by a factor of 28. To the contrary, he says the policies adopted by the British government, which are in line with the aggressive control measures recommended by a highly influential March 16 paper that Ferguson and other researchers at Imperial College wrote, should keep the number of deaths below 20,000.
"We assessed in that report…that fatalities would probably be unlikely to exceed about 20,000 with effectively a lockdown, a social distancing strategy," Ferguson, who is himself recovering from COVID-19, told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday. "But it could be substantially lower than that."
As a note, the UK has seen 32k deaths so far - the paper was calculated on the basis of Great Britain rather than the UK, I don't have stats for GB specifically, but it seems like if anything the results derived from the ILC model were *too* conservative, as GB/the UK have exceeded the 20,000 figure by 50%, though the 32k figure is still very squarely within the range of likely values within the various mitigation scenarios presented - i.e. the Imperial War College model is actually scarily accurate.
In reality, the only major model that has really been wrong has been the IHME model used by the Trump administration which predicted 70,000 deaths in the US by August (newsflash, we've already exceeded that number) - in large part because it doesn't* actually model the virus at all but attempts to project results by extrapolating data from the performance of other countries and fitting it to a curve - which brings me back to a previous point: if every country followed the same curve regardless of action, then the IHME model would be right and would not have needed to be revised multiple times (with the latest going from 70k deaths by august to 134k deaths by august).
*The model was revised - and I mean, revised, completely changed from the ground up - recently to take disease transmission rates and epedemiological modeling and data into account rather than just trying to extrapolate from aggregate performance. Ultimately, this means the model was as wrong as wrong could be.
and the effects of these lockdowns will harm more people than the virus ever could of.
If you've paid attention to past discussion, you would know this is blatantly incorrect. A number of studies from a number of think tanks and universities - liberal, conservative, bipartisan, etc. - have almost unanimously found that the economic damage to the American economy from the virus in an unmitigated scenario is far far worse than the damage resulting from a suppression or mitigation policy. Different studies have come up with different results, but they all more or less indicate that we can remain in a lockdown for the better part of the year before the cost of suppression exceeds the cost of no action.
I hope at this point I don't need to continue explaining to you how horribly wrong you are.
I said that the purpose of the WHO was to use fear to increase the UN's control over world governments, as per Agenda 2030.
Stop right there. I am sending the black helicopters for you. Its in your best interest to come peacefully.
. Here's a NYT article about the antibody tests done in NY that showed about 21% of people had COVID-19 antibodies. They estimate a potential 2.7 million people have successfully had the virus in NY alone, which would increase the number of world cases by about 67%. And that's just one state.
WOAH WOAH WOAH HOLD UP. Before you run yourself off a logical cliff, the study found that 21% of people in NEW YORK CITY had the antibodies. For the rest of the state, only 3.6% of ~12 million people outside of NYC. Thats a *huge* difference, and its important to keep that in mind. The statistic you are quoting does NOT indicate that the disease is more widespread than everyone thinks it is, only that a large number of people in one particular city caught it. In aggregate with similar data taken from other states, the best guess is 6-7% of the national population has COVID-19 antibodies (this was about 2 weeks ago, so it might be 8-9% by now, who knows). There is nothing to support the idea that tons of people have already had the virus, quite the contrary.
Factoring all this stuff in, I've seen some (world renowned) epidemiologists suggest the IFR could be as low as 0.02%.
I've seen precisely one estimate anywhere near that low - and it was 0.2%, not .02% - which is still about 2-5x deadlier than seasonal influenza depending on the year, etc. - a disease which has a vaccine and some level of established herd immunity and thus a lower number of potential infections to begin with. Extraordinary claims and all that, please cite your source, this is the only one I've found for .2%: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-24/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far
I've read multiple articles on it, like this one
from the article:
As a professional political scientist
I should have stopped reading there. Its an amateurish attempt at studying the problem. I suppose he did a regression analysis, at least.
why is it my responsibility to prove that lockdowns don't work rather than that the people who want to put the world on house arrest proving that they do? Shouldn't the burden of proof being on the imposer, not the imposed?
Its called the burden of proof. You made the claim, you carry the burden, ergo you have to prove.
There is no proof, at all, that lockdowns work.
Except for the dozen or so countries where lockdowns did, in fact, work? Countries like Taiwan, New Zealand, Singapore (until they lifted the lockdown prematurely), etc. Or for that matter, the sharp decline in deaths and cases beginning approximately 2 weeks after lockdowns were imposed, or any other number of similar stats from other countries that followed that path. Oh no, I forgot, magically all countries are following the same curve for no apparent reason and it was just coincidence that this occurred within the appropriate lag window of policy shifts. There is plenty of epidemiological evidence that supports the fact that lockdowns work, nearly every health and policy expert agrees to that fact, a random youtuber with a GED or a political scientist crunching some data on the internet doesn't change that.
Again, these places are at different points in the curve, but they are both following the same curve.
No they aren't.
Well, the hospitals aren't overwhelmed. The curve is flattened. Why the hell are there still lockdowns?
Thats a really dense question to ask. The curve is flattened because of the lockdowns, the hospitals aren't overwhelmed because the curve is flattened, the lockdowns are still in place because you have to maintain the curve in a flattened state otherwise it un-flattens and the hospitals are overwhelmed, and if you paid attention to some of those cost-benefit studies I referenced earlier, the economic cost of re-imposing a lockdown after lifting it is significantly greater than just consistently maintaining it. If your concern is economic efficiency, then you will want to maintain the lockdown as long as its feasible to do so, because you only get one opportunity to do so before the incremental cost skyrockets.
The reason why the UN never became the world government is because nobody wants a world government run by anybody but themselves.
The reason it never became the world gov is because thats not what the UN exists for and was never the case. (but sit tight, those black helicopters are on their way).
Heh. Now that I think about it, isn't BIll Gates basically just Sir Humphrey Appleby?
You need to cut back on television....
California is one of the most draconian about lockdowns, and one of the ones where it is least necessary.
California seems to have the least need for a lockdown *because* its the most draconian. It was very fast to act very early on, and doing so is, again, proof that lockdowns work. California is not "following the same curve as everyone else" by any measure - and theres a reason for that (hint: its because they took strict and decisive action very early on).
You're really bad at this whole logic thing, or maybe you're just using circular logic intentionally in an attempt to justify your position and hope that nobody else will notice?
You think those 10 deaths are overwhelming their medical services?
Its not deaths that overwhelm medical facilities, its hospitalizations.
Georgia opened up a few weeks ago, and guess what? The curve is not increasing.
Georgia didn't fully reopen in one day, its been phasing things in. Give it another 2 weeks and then revisit that statement.
As we enjoy our freedom burgers and having jobs, the rest of you can just look on in jealousy as you wonder why the hell you still can't leave your house until July.
Florida is one of the hardest hit places in the nation, economically speaking. You aren't going to have jobs, because your tourist economy isn't going to get many tourists.
Also, wtf do you mean "can't leave your house"? I live in NJ, one of the really strict lockdown states, I leave my house daily - go to work in my office job (essential/critical personnel, can't work from home, have a federal directive to be here, etc.), go for a 3-5 mile walk/jog with my girlfriend after work, order take out or delivery 2-3 times a week (I too had Five Guys over the weekend, despite being "locked down"), go to the supermarket for my groceries weekly, pay the occasional visit to my FLGS for curbside pickup of hobby goods, stop by my parents place every other weekend to do laundry, play with the dog, hang out with my younger brother, and make sure they are doing okay, etc. Has life changed for me? Yes. Am I confined to my house? No. Nobody is.I can't speak to other states, other than New York (or at least NYC), but we aren't under house arrest, we are being told to act responsibly, and those businesses and venues that can't operate in such a manner by their very nature are being forced to adapt to operating in a different way or close entirely - but life goes on.
The lockdowns are going to end because places like Texas, Georgia, and Florida show that it is a bunch of stupid bs.
Not yet they haven't. This post will age well, just like all your previous posts.
people are going to protest their abusive house arrests
lol what house arrests? if you actually knew what you were talking about I would think you were a troll instead of someone who is just incredibly ignorant.
They are going to end because of the numerous lawsuits being made against the governors for overstepping their constitutional bounds.
The courts have mostly been siding with state governments
So how was this model calculated? Well, you can go read the code yourself. If you aren't a programmer, here's one (of many) takes on its quality.
From your link:
It isn’t the code Ferguson ran to produce his famous Report 9. What’s been released on GitHub is a heavily modified derivative of it, after having been upgraded for over a month by a team from Microsoft and others.
So... you're basing your judgement of the model on code that isn't used by the model???
As Nate Silver would point out, coronavirus case counts are meaningless.
He would also tell you that Lockdowns work.
key points:
-Sweden is not "following the same curve as everyone else" - https://imgur.com/a/xo62Ee9 -The "same curve" argument is demonstrably false by a number of different metrics and measures and wholly unsupported by reality (compare New Zealand to Sweden or basically anywhere else, for example. You can also compare Sweden to New Jersey, similar population sizes but drastically different numbers).
-The Imperial College model is actually very very accurate:
The ICL model has actually born out to be reasonably accurate, the 1.1-2.2 million death figure that was reported was always the worst case "do nothing" scenario in which governments took zero response whatsoever and individuals made no changes to their behavior - which was already essentially obsolete when it was published because by that time governments globally had already taken steps to address the crisis and individual behavior had already altered in an unforseen and unprecedented manner. The model *always* included more conservative scenarios with varying degrees of individual and governmental response that indicated a lower number of deaths - anyone who spent more than 5 seconds glancing at headlines already knew this and was aware of it, your own ignorance of it is not indicative of a failure on the part of the model. https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil-ferguson-has-not-drastically-downgraded-his-worst-case-projection-of-covid-19-deaths/
Contrary to what you may have read or heard, British epidemiologist Neil Ferguson has not suddenly reduced his worst-case projection of COVID-19 deaths in the U.K. by a factor of 28. To the contrary, he says the policies adopted by the British government, which are in line with the aggressive control measures recommended by a highly influential March 16 paper that Ferguson and other researchers at Imperial College wrote, should keep the number of deaths below 20,000.
"We assessed in that report…that fatalities would probably be unlikely to exceed about 20,000 with effectively a lockdown, a social distancing strategy," Ferguson, who is himself recovering from COVID-19, told a parliamentary committee on Wednesday. "But it could be substantially lower than that."
As a note, the UK has seen 32k deaths so far - the paper was calculated on the basis of Great Britain rather than the UK, I don't have stats for GB specifically, but it seems like if anything the results derived from the ILC model were *too* conservative, as GB/the UK have exceeded the 20,000 figure by 50%, though the 32k figure is still very squarely within the range of likely values within the various mitigation scenarios presented - i.e. the Imperial War College model is actually scarily accurate.
In reality, the only major model that has really been wrong has been the IHME model used by the Trump administration which predicted 70,000 deaths in the US by August (newsflash, we've already exceeded that number) - in large part because it doesn't* actually model the virus at all but attempts to project results by extrapolating data from the performance of other countries and fitting it to a curve - which brings me back to a previous point: if every country followed the same curve regardless of action, then the IHME model would be right and would not have needed to be revised multiple times (with the latest going from 70k deaths by august to 134k deaths by august).
*The model was revised - and I mean, revised, completely changed from the ground up - recently to take disease transmission rates and epedemiological modeling and data into account rather than just trying to extrapolate from aggregate performance. Ultimately, this means the model was as wrong as wrong could be.
- They're increasingly certain that "asymptomatic" is incorrect, and believe that anyone who contracts it will develop some symptoms at some point.
Yes, this has been known for a bit I think. Many asymptomatic cases are actually presymptomatic, because you're contagious for something like 5-11 days on average before the onset of symptoms.
I think I've got that mostly right, I expect iPlayer has it if anyone wishes to fact check.
link please?
It is like he posts a guide on how to refute his post within the post itself.
I know, right?!? I'm still in awe at the bit above, where his own link acknowledges that the code used is not from the model used in the Imperial College study.
CoALabaer wrote: Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: How? There are plenty of people who have been working throughout this whole thing, with no issues. if your employer takes adequate precautions, whats the issue? you cant stay cocooned in your house forever, and nor should the government encourage that.
It's likely to be those employees that don't have good representation at a union level. To either benefit from the situation or simply to cut costs to survive some aspects are likely to be ignored putting staff at risk if they become exposed. This results in a cascading situation where a few businesses start to benefit from a more relaxed approach, forcing others to follow to be competitive and then it becomes a snowball effect until the restrictions are effectively ignored. This risks allowing the virus to get a new foothold and things start all over.
Still at least we have a fancy new coloured alert system, current UK approach seems to be about this:-
"Because while the truncheon may be used in lieu of conversation, words will always retain their power. Words offer the means to meaning, and for those who will listen, the enunciation of truth. And the truth is, there is something terribly wrong with this country, isn't there? Cruelty and injustice, intolerance and oppression. And where once you had the freedom to object, to think and speak as you saw fit, you now have censors and systems of surveillance coercing your conformity and soliciting your submission. How did this happen? Who's to blame? Well certainly there are those more responsible than others, and they will be held accountable, but again truth be told, if you're looking for the guilty, you need only look into a mirror. " - V
I've just supported the Permanent European Union Citizenship initiative. Please do the same and spread the word!
"It's not a problem if you don't look up." - Dakka's approach to politics
NinthMusketeer wrote: See this is what makes Sqorgar so fun--I used duck duck go and the first result was an article about how lockdowns have worked and where to go from here. It is like he posts a guide on how to refute his post within the post itself.
I just checked again, and yeah, it does look like the listing has changed since I wrote that. The first result is a WSJ article last updated on... today. Always in motion the future is.
NinthMusketeer wrote: See this is what makes Sqorgar so fun--I used duck duck go and the first result was an article about how lockdowns have worked and where to go from here. It is like he posts a guide on how to refute his post within the post itself.
I just checked again, and yeah, it does look like the listing has changed since I wrote that. The first result is a WSJ article last updated on... today. Always in motion the future is.
Whether most of the articles are about how the lockdown doesn't work (now), there's certainly no shortage of them in the search listings:
Your sources are absolutely atrocious, did you even read them?
https://www.aei.org/articles/lockdowns-dont-work/
Outdated and fudging the numbers. The author takes 3 to 3.5 weeks as the median time to death, which is BS because that is based on a median age of 60 years old in a small sample size. A bigger sample size shows that it is about two weeks for over 70 year olds (he even includes said source but completely ignores that inconvenient tidbit) and guess what 4/5ths of deaths in Italy, Spain and France are 70+ years old. So his numbers are based on a metric that ignores the fact that the median age is well over 70, accounting for over 4/5ths of deaths in these countries. Guess what, if you take about two weeks, the official lockdown date and death peak actually are pretty close!
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25689?af=R
“What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus, and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them,” Mike Ryan said in an interview on the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show.
“The danger right now with the lockdowns ... if we don’t put in place the strong public health measures now, when those movement restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, the danger is the disease will jump back up.”
This is a great example of confusing with numbers. Direct comparison is all well and good, but you cannot make direct comparisons without giving an overview of initial infections in those states. Heavier hit states that imposed a lockdown would of course not preform better than states with a low number with no lockdown, because they start at a higher point. What is the starting point? He just takes 1 point in time, but nothing to indicate he levels the playing field by looking at the base level of infections for measuring succes. I see nothing in this article of taking that sort of difference between states into account, its just generic population numbers. Never mind the fact that his global comparison completely ignores mitigating circumstances when giving examples such as South Korea and their incredible case tracking ability. Not everyone needs lock downs because they start from different points in the process.
You should look up the current numbers, because the stats here are no longer accurate. Its making arguments on outdated data, like saying Switzerland is worse, while Sweden has actually surpassed Switzerland by twice as many deaths in this point in time. I could take it further apart, but the point is shown.
This is an interview with opinions, not really any data.
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Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
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First link is tagged as an opinion piece, second link is Fox News, third is an article that's entirely precipitated on an opinion piece written elsewhere, fourth states that lockdowns don't work in isolation but as part of an approach, sixth advocates for doing it, the funding from Spiked leads back to the Koch Foundation which casts their impartiality into question and finally the whole Sweden thing has already been covered.
Any actual science and hard data?
We find comfort among those who agree with us - growth among those who don't. - Frank Howard Clark
The wise man doubts often, and changes his mind; the fool is obstinate, and doubts not; he knows all things but his own ignorance.
The correct statement of individual rights is that everyone has the right to an opinion, but crucially, that opinion can be roundly ignored and even made fun of, particularly if it is demonstrably nonsense!” Professor Brian Cox
For the sake of brevity, I'm only going to quote relatively small snippets of the original post.
chaos0xomega wrote: Iran has labeled the US government as being a terrorist organization, guess we're all terrorists now too. Being a member of a terrorist organization, when that terrorist organization is either a government or a political party within a government is essentially a meaningless metric...
Holy goal post moving, Batman! I think at the point that you are trying to argue "depends on what the definition of terrorist organization is", you've moved past actual discussion into semantic minutiae - the last refuge of someone without a real argument.
Cholera accusation notwithstanding, do you have sources as to Tedros involvement in any of these accusations? First I've heard of his involvement in anything aside from the Cholera coverup.
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/04/04/the-crimes-of-tedros-adhanom/ (links to plenty of sources within the article)
If by healthy part you mean "significantly more". The administration expects 100k dead in the US by the end of May, and 3000 dead *per day* by early June.
It's hard to argue about predictions unless you want to come back in a month and have this conversation again. To be sure, I think COVID-19 is a real thing and it is causing excess mortality. However, I think I a lot of the deaths attributable to COVID-19 are deaths that would've been included in flu deaths otherwise (which is shown by flu mortality being relatively lower during this same period). I think the newness of the diseased cause bad treatment (ventilators were the absolute wrong call). And we're counting people who have died WITH COVID-19, not FROM COVID-19, warping the impression of the most severe of outcomes.
And I think the majority of the deaths have been in nursing homes and assisted living centers - in some places as much as 70% of the deaths. Nursing homes have a median stay time from admission to death of about 5 months, with 53% dying within the first six months. This means that the majority of the lives taken by COVID-19 would likely have died sooner than later - to the point where monthly excess mortality might be higher, but yearly excess mortality would stay the same (though it will be impossible to say for sure because there are many thousands of deaths expected to be the result of the lockdown itself).
Basically, we are looking at a tiny bit of the picture and trying to draw conclusion that will not be proven correct in hindsight.
And this has only been going on for about 4 full months now and you're comparing it to numbers for what the flu does over the course of a *full year*.
You are right. And given how extraordinary a worldwide lockdown is, I assume you have the extraordinary evidence that it is making a difference. I maintain that there is no evidence that it does make a difference, but I'll soften my stance somewhat to, even if it does make a measurable difference, this measurable difference is so insignificant that it does not justify itself.
I'm really not sure where you got the idea that every country follows the same basic curve...
Can't find it now, but I read that all infectious diseases follow the same basic curve, and that COVID-19 was no different. It was something measured in, I think, 2 week intervals for 8 weeks(?). The differences we're seeing in individual country results is due to the differences in testing capabilities and reporting. For instance, how Japan reports COVID-19 deaths is completely different than how Italy reports them. South Korea had enormous early testings while the US was very late to the testing and tested very little. These will make parts of the graphs look different when you look at parts of them, but overall, the curves, at a macro level, are adhering to the infectious disease curve and timeline.
You're also ignoring the fact that despite Sweden not locking down, it has imposed various restrictions (closing schools for students over the age of like 12 or something, banning gatherings greater than x many people, etc.).
Closing schools doesn't seem to make a difference. They did some studies and found that there were no cases of teachers who got the virus from their students, and the students are not transmitting it to each other. In other words, children and young people are not carriers for this disease on average.
Mass gatherings have shown to be super spreader events, and banning them could make a difference - but it is likely that they did it far too late for it to have made a significant difference.
Study after study has repeatedly torpedoed the various shifting goalpost arguments you've made.
What goal posts have I shifted? I think I've been rather consistent in my stated position that this virus is "just a flu, bro", more people will die from the lockdown than the virus, that 99% of people who aren't old, infirm, or have multiple comorbidities have nothing to fear from this thing. I guess saying that the lockdown didn't do anything is new, but I can only say that now that there's enough evidence (or lack thereof) to form that opinion.
IFR was never was stated to be 3-6% in the first place. CFR maybe, but not IFR.
I meant CFR. The media uses the term "mortality rate" rather than IFR or CFR, and in my head, the IFR is the mortality rate since the CFR is so inflated. But you are right in that when the media says "mortality rate", they mean the case fatality rate.
except it isn't? The ICL model has actually born out to be reasonably accurate
The code isn't even accurate. It's terrible, amateurish, bug ridden, and poorly constructed. Can you say your calculations are correct if your calculator is missing the 6 button?
And.... I'm only like a fifth of the way through responding to this thing... Time to take a break. Do posts have a character limit?
Your sources are absolutely atrocious, did you even read them?
Of course not. I was responding with the search results, not the contents of the search results. I wasn't presenting those links as evidence of anything except that searching "do lockdowns work" has many articles arguing that they have not (or at least appear to - didn't read them all. I've still got a post with another 20,000 words to reply to).
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chaos0xomega, that was brilliant. Exalt for you!
edit- I stand corrected! Still, I appreciate all of the excellent information you put into your post.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/11 20:41:08
Klawz-Ramming is a subset of citrus fruit?
Gwar- "And everyone wants a bigger Spleen!"
Mercurial wrote:
I admire your aplomb and instate you as Baron of the Seas and Lord Marshall of Privateers.
Orkeosaurus wrote:Star Trek also said we'd have X-Wings by now. We all see how that prediction turned out.
Orkeosaurus, on homophobia, the nature of homosexuality, and the greatness of George Takei.
English doesn't borrow from other languages. It follows them down dark alleyways and mugs them for loose grammar.
NinthMusketeer wrote: See this is what makes Sqorgar so fun--I used duck duck go and the first result was an article about how lockdowns have worked and where to go from here. It is like he posts a guide on how to refute his post within the post itself.
I just checked again, and yeah, it does look like the listing has changed since I wrote that. The first result is a WSJ article last updated on... today. Always in motion the future is.
Whether most of the articles are about how the lockdown doesn't work (now), there's certainly no shortage of them in the search listings:
Nobody was questioning the existence of these articles. The issue was your claim that there were no articles out there claiming that Lockdown is effective, despite a cursory search proving this claim false. I'm not exactly sure how posting a bunch of links to articles nobody asked for actually helps your argument.
Your sources are absolutely atrocious, did you even read them?
Of course not. I was responding with the search results, not the contents of the search results. I wasn't presenting those links as evidence of anything except that searching "do lockdowns work" has many articles arguing that they have not (or at least appear to - didn't read them all. I've still got a post with another 20,000 words to reply to).
Hence me saying that the search results you get who claim it doesn't work are atrocious.
Sorry for my spelling. I'm not a native speaker and a dyslexic.
1750 pts Blood Specters
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3500 pts Peridia Prime
2500 pts Prophets of Fate
Lizardmen 3000 points Tlaxcoatl Temple-City
Tomb Kings 1500 points Sekhra (RIP)
Sqorgar wrote: I wasn't presenting those links as evidence of anything except that searching "do lockdowns work" has many articles arguing that they have not.
And that is proof of... search engines finding articles related to your search. Amazing!
If I search for 'Do crystals heal cancer?' I get a whole bunch of links talking about how awesome crystals are for healing, and only a couple pointing out that, no, in fact, they're not.
Quantity does not imply accuracy. Just better search engine optimization.
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One of the many reasons I take this all seriously is because I got H1N1 back in 2009. A girl showed up sick to a weekend-long LARP event I was at, and 18 out of the 24 people at that event got it, several of us getting legitimately tested.
I had to take 5 full days off of work- the sickest ever been in my life. I have never taken more than 2 days off in a row in the 20 years I have been a working adult, and with H1N1 I was sick, puking and nearly bedridden, from the Monday following the LARP event to Saturday.
Because it's such a crapshoot of severity depending on each case, getting Covid-19 could do the same thing to me (or worse, or absolutely nothing) and my 66 year old mother who lives next door is currently going through Chemo treatments for bone cancer, so is immune-compromised. I'd rather not get sick and have my kids run over and pass it to her. My son already gave her (and me) Influenza-B barely two weeks before Covid came along, and just a run of the mill flu got us both sick -at seperate houses- for three full days.
Not to mention 5 years ago, when my wife brought home a (super mild for her) case of Hand, Foot And Mouth from the school she teaches at. My 1 year-old son got full body blisters and had to go to the ER, I only got it badly on my hands and feet, and we both lost nearly all our fingernails and toenails. I literally had one finger and two toes that didn't have the nails stop growing, and then literally have each newly growing nail slowly shove the old nail off over the course of a couple weeks. Even then I only took a Friday off, spent the weekend moaning in pain and hallucinating with a fever... and then went back to work (moving appliances) the next Monday.
Communicable diseases are a goddamn thing, you unbelievers. And one that puts people into hospitals is even more serious. And, no, the world is not part of some vast conspiracy to screw America by all colluding to over-inflate their numbers to make it look worse.
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"By this point I'm convinced 100% that every single race in the 40k universe have somehow tapped into the ork ability to just have their tech work because they think it should."
queen_annes_revenge wrote: suggested 'advice'. yes, I do suggest going to the countryside, and will continue to do so. its good for you.
the legislation is somewhat vague, insofar as it allows for different subjective interpretation, which is why its an issue, and why I advocate for its abolition. it was brought in because people practically begged for rules they could follow in order for them to feel safe.
It was the employers I was talking about.
Automatically Appended Next Post: suggested 'advice'. yes, I do suggest going to the countryside, and will continue to do so. its good for you.
the legislation is somewhat vague, insofar as it allows for different subjective interpretation, which is why its an issue, and why I advocate for its abolition. it was brought in because people practically begged for rules they could follow in order for them to feel safe.
It was the employers I was talking about.
Just be glad it's said to be "suggested" where you're at.
I just heard something on the tv in Michigan where our governor said the social distancing or stay at home order wasn't advice or a suggestion but an order. My half sister after hearing this called her a *****. This was after it showed a 70+ year old dude cutting peoples' hair having to be arrested for breaking the 'stay at home' order. This was supposedly in a less populated area of Michigan where the cases are relatively few.
---------
Personally for me the lockdown is getting to me a bit. I feel like a cramped sardine in a tin of sardines. I mostly just want to go to some restaurants but mostly to the GW. Also wearing the mask so many places is a pain. I'm still working since my job somehow made the cut of critical infrastructure (it's a factory). That said the lack of entertainment is getting to me. I understand it could be much worse and thankfully my toilet paper supplies went from almost nothing to critical mass (they had packages of a bunch of 48 rolls at the store). Jesus Christ the toilet paper, hand soap and various paper products crisis reminds me of all those failed states I hear about that end up with a lack of basic human goods.
If nothing else maybe this crisis will show the good and bad of people. Rather than good vibes those who act and do good and those who act in bad faith will be shown for all to see.
queen_annes_revenge wrote: True, but the populace(or at least the that as represented by twitter) are in a frenzy, freaking out because they don't know what to do now their parents/big brother can't hold their hands. It's slightly pathetic.
twitter is no indicator of the populance.
Infact any social media should be taken with a grain of salt for the percieved anonimity of people leading to trollish and wierdly aggressive behaviour.
Twitter is the new Tumblr. I heard when Tumblr started censoring nsfw content Tumblr refugees started coming in to Twitter. Remember like 5 years ago when twitter was somewhat sane? Yeah don't go there. Now there's freaking Antifa and similar there and they roam in the open.
Honestly a lot of twitter seems like a place for self absorbed people to talk about their lives and not answer to any of their fans even when they only have like 10 people sending them messages in a post. It's kind of like social media makes people super vain. Seeing Twitter and Instagram this is my general idea of those places at least.
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Particularly don't go to Twitter today. It's nuts over there right now, with people screaming about censorship all over the place because they don't understand how Twitter Trends work...
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