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Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios

chaos0xomega wrote:


I have that conclusion because I have multiple friends and acquaintances who are out of work because of this lockdown. As a consequence are in fear of being unable to feed their children or pay their rent beyond the next few weeks. A couple of them have actually lost their jobs because the business didn't survive. And the unemployment system is so broken down because millions are trying to file for it.

If it was my kids, I certainly wouldn't consider the ability for others to feel safe to be more important than my ability to feed my kids or keep them in a house. I'd say screw your elderly relatives, screw your desire to "feel safe".


So you derived a scientific conclusion from.... anecdotal stories about the misfortunes suffered by friends and loved ones? I fail to see what bearing "people I know are struggling financially and emotionally" has on what an effective epidemiological response to a pandemic looks like. As others posted, the correct response to the predicament your friends and family find themselves in would be to expand the social safety net, whether it be temporarily or permanently, so economic inequality and living hand to mouth doesn't become a driver for widespread illness and death. As I've pointed out to sqrorhar in the past, there is an economic impact associated with death - there is enough evidence and data that shows that the dollar cost of the death toll brought on by the virus would far and away exceed the cost of maintaining the lockdown for the majority of the year. Put another way, while your friends and family might be struggling economically and financially at the moment in light of the likedown, their situation would likely be far worse if we *didnt* lockdown, as there would be a good possibility that some of them would be dead - or would have immediate family members who have died as a result of the virus - PLUS they would likely still be facing some degree of layoffs or economic hardship as a result of the economic downturn/recession that would have resulted from the death toll.


Given that unemployment is skyrocketing, its hardly just anecdotal evidence.

If the solution to a problem causes more damage than the problem itself, then the solution should not be implemented. And I simply have not seen anything that shows that the damage to everyone's financial situation would be worse if the lockdown had not been implemented, or had been implemented in a more sensible limited fashion.

A few tens of thousands of additional deaths across a country the size of the US would not have caused an economic downturn on the scale we are seeing now. And its pretty hard for anybody, let alone you, to justify people struggling to feed their children against the possibility that they might have struggled to a lesser extant but a few more people would have died. At least they might stand a chance with a less stringent lockdown.


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UK

A few tens can quickly rise if there's very few measures against that value rising; esp if the medical system gets overwhelmed (and esp in the USA where many might not seek medical attention because they cannot afford it).

What happens when the news gets out (and it would) and the population goes from "Oh its flu" to panic mode? You can't run businesses if your staff are scared and your customers aren't coming through the door. When people start to take holidays all at the same time and flee the cities to the rural landscape.

You could just as easily see businesses shut down through panic in such a situation and the economic damage of a run-away situation could be far more costly than a controlled situation. An uncontrolled situation can spiral in so many different directions and the costs of trying to then put in place lockdown and other measures could be far harder.

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I feel that Russian and Chinese influences have probably taken advantage of the situation in the process and exacerbated the partisanship and the cultural divide that we are seeing as the crisis unfolds (oh calm down, its not a conspiracy, this is legitimately their MO at this point, they shovel millions/billions of dollars into PSYOPS against the US population every single year to destabilize domestic politics and slow our response and resolve, "get inside our OODA loop" as it were. Its a neat trick taht they picked up from watching us do it for decades, sadly it seems that its working really well for them).


SPEAKING OF WHICH: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/20/859814085/researchers-nearly-half-of-accounts-tweeting-about-coronavirus-are-likely-bots

Given that unemployment is skyrocketing, its hardly just anecdotal evidence.


Fair - but irrelevant. This has no bearing on the epidemiological threat or outcome of the situation.

If the solution to a problem causes more damage than the problem itself, then the solution should not be implemented. And I simply have not seen anything that shows that the damage to everyone's financial situation would be worse if the lockdown had not been implemented, or had been implemented in a more sensible limited fashion.


These studies should help get you informed:

https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Scherbina-determining-the-optimal-duration-WP-May-update.pdf
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561934

The studies don't put the financial damage of not shutting down in the context of individual harm - but if the costs of *not* social distancing is trillions more than the cost of the distancing/lockdown measures, then its safe to assume that that cost will be felt by individuals in many of the same ways they are feeling now. To put it into perspective, per the SSRN study:

Based on our SIR model, the total number of infections is
projected to reach 287 million without social distancing and 188 million with social distancing.
When combined with the differential mortality rates when the health system capacity threshold is
exceeded versus when not, the difference between the infection curves translates into about 1.24
million lives saved. Using a $10 million value of reduced mortality risk (VSL) for the lives saved,
the benefits of social distancing are $12.4 trillion. The cost of social distancing is the difference in
present value terms of the GDP losses without ($6.49 trillion) and with ($13.7 trillion) the policy,
which is $7.21 trillion. The main result is in the bottom row: under our benchmark assumptions,
social distancing generates net benefits of about $5.16 trillion.


Put another way, in more absolute terms - not social distancing would cost the GDP $18.89 trillion dollars - thats the VSL cost of preventable deaths ($12.4 trillion) + the cost of COVID on the economy when left unchecked as a result of decreased productivity and economic friction ($6.49 trillion). The cost of the shutdown, based on economic forescasts, and assuming they remain in place for the duration of the crisis, is $13.7 trillion. What we are seeing now is the impact of the $13.7 trillion hit to our economy - what do you think an $18.89 trillion hit would look like?

The AEI study arrives at a similar conclusion though some of the dollar values are different - the key takeaway from it though is that the optimal length of the shutdown would be to extend it an additional 11 to 18 weeks from May 1st in order to derive the most effective suppression of the virus possible while *still* saving a cool $3-4 trillion dollars vs not shutting down at all.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 01:34:00


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On moon miranda.

 Grey Templar wrote:
A few tens of thousands of additional deaths across a country the size of the US would not have caused an economic downturn on the scale we are seeing now. And its pretty hard for anybody, let alone you, to justify people struggling to feed their children against the possibility that they might have struggled to a lesser extant but a few more people would have died. At least they might stand a chance with a less stringent lockdown.

We have ways and means to feed people who have fallen on hard times, from social programs, food stamps, community pantries, meals on wheels, soup kitchens, charities, etc, in what is the wealthiest nation in the history of the planet and a government that is entirely able, if it chooses to do so, to increase and provide that assistance. We do not have ways and means to bring back tens of thousands of dead people. I can find no information that access to food is a major issue in the US, or that people in the US are literally starving to death, as a result of the actions taken in response to the current pandemic. Not a single death due to being unable to obtain sustenance as a result of quarantine procedures that I can find. We do however now have nearly 100,000 dead people in a couple months as a result of this disease and nearly 5,000 dead since Monday this week according to OurWorldInData.

That is not to say that people are not being negatively impacted, that people are not facing hard times and hard choices and serious decreases in quality of life, however, access to food and sustenance in and of itself, due to pandemic restrictions does not appear to be a widespread systemic pressing issue.

Your argument is that tens of thousands of more deaths is an acceptable solution to a problem that does not appear to exist, and is not otherwise be beyond our means to address.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/22 02:45:18


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Bodt

https://unherd.com/2020/03/self-isolation-is-feeding-my-warhammer-addiction/?=refinnar

Article about warhammer from Tom chivers.

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]
 Grey Templar wrote:
A few tens of thousands of additional deaths across a country the size of the US would not have caused an economic downturn on the scale we are seeing now. And its pretty hard for anybody, let alone you, to justify people struggling to feed their children against the possibility that they might have struggled to a lesser extant but a few more people would have died. At least they might stand a chance with a less stringent lockdown.



Ah yes isn't it lovely when people value money more than human lives. Let's kill off people. As long as I live and get money it's all right.

And if US can't ensure people get food then something's badly wrong in US system. Less rich countries per people(so don't go "US has more people" garbage. This is adjusted to population size...) can ensure people get fed. If US can't then that's the decision by US goverment rather than capablity.

Human lives are more valuable than bit's of 1's and 0's.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 10:25:37


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Decrepit Dakkanaut




UK

Lets not forget that this pandemic hasn't really affected the food supply chain at all. The food delivery end has been impacted by major overbuying due to a large portion of the population both:

Panic buying

Buying one to two weeks worth of food at once

Shifting from an ad-hock food buying pattern to weekly/biweekly and thus buying greater amounts of food in bulk rather than spread out.


However even though there are some local limits (eg flour in small bags in the UK); in general people have been able to buy food. Urban areas have seen shortages; but again its not that we don't have the food, its that the food couldn't get from source to supply fast enough*. Heck the UK is expecting vast over-production of potatos due to closed fish and chip shops; some fishing fleets have also stopped going out as often as a result. In addition the beef market has seen a dramatic drop in demand (no more burgers at fast food outlets). So if anything we've (in some sectors) potential food surplus.


I suspect this is a pattern mirrored (with local variation) in other countries (at least developed ones). There's also no sign on the horizon that the virus would cause a food shortage - food production plants and farming can self-isolate fairly effectively and were (at least in the UK) already pretty clinical in aiming for clean work environments.

So I'd second the view that the system should be able to feed the population even if work becomes hard to get for a larger portion of the population. It would involve government intervention to set it up and ensure the provision was achieved, but the nations can achieve it. There is food in the system its simply a matter of ensuring distribution.



*most rationing wasn't about a lack of food to eat, it was about curtailing food hoarding (and some profiteers) habits and ensuring steadier supply for the more vulnerable and at risk and key workers. Hence why supermarkets and the like had policies of restricting access based on age/work style etc... Helping to ensure the more key and vulnerable were able to get at the food that is in the system. Ergo it was distribution rather than supply that was the issue.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 10:32:52


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Bodt

No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation) why is it so difficult to understand that its not a zero sum game? economic downturn will cost lives in itself. there is plenty of evidence for that.

Furthermore in the UK, a weakened economy will have negative consequences for the NHS, that institution we constantly espouse wanting to 'protect' with such religious fervour.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/22 10:31:54


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UK

 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation) why is it so difficult to understand that its not a zero sum game? economic downturn will cost lives in itself. there is plenty of evidence for that.

Furthermore in the UK, a weakened economy will have negative consequences for the NHS, that institution we constantly espouse wanting to 'protect' with such religious fervour.


Yes but the continual argument being made is that the economic downturn of a lockdown (or several) is less than the economic downturn of no lockdown. Ergo that taking deliberate and controlled shutdown is going to cost less and have less long lasting damage than letting the virus run rampant without any shutdown measures. As proven many times social distancing is very hard to enforce and is quite situational. The same person who ensures 2m in the supermarket might happily lay on the beach with friends well within 2m distance.


The balance then comes on how much and when you relax lockdowns - allow business to recover and then prepare for either a surge and lockdown or a surge that only just meets limits of the health system.

There's also a waiting game going on; the longer you draw things out the more time science has to develop better methods to tackle the virus. Even without considering a vaccine, the longer you treat people the more understanding you build up. Allowing for better treatment options which can speed recovery and improve recovery rates. Without lockdowns things happen much much faster; that means systems can get overwhelmed; public panic can set in (again just look at my previous post and how we had ample food but there were shortages and needs to ration/limit access to ensure fairer distribution); populations star to faulter and then you've got jobs shutting down with no government payouts because customers won't come to buy and workers won't come to work. Even though its not the Black Death its still scary.

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Lol no wonder UK got to their target amount in tests so big faster than others. Not only they counted SENT tests(some which didn't even work) whether it's used or not but they also counted saliva and nassal sample from same person as 2. Okay technically 100% accurate but not particularly useful to double test counts reported when # of people tested is only half the that...

Good testing strategy. Guess # in papers is more useful than actual # tested.

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https://www.indiewire.com/2020/05/michael-bay-produced-songbird-could-be-the-first-coronavirus-era-film-shot-in-los-angeles-1202232341/


Michael Bay will produce what may be the first major film shot in Los Angeles during the coronavirus pandemic lockdown. Deadline reported Tuesday that “Songbird,” directed by Adam Mason, will begin production within five weeks.

While it’s unclear exactly how Mason and his team will pull it off, the production could offer a blueprint for completing films when traditional means of production are off limits.

Mason (Hulu/Blumhouse’s “Into the Dark”) co-wrote a script with Simon Boyes (“Misconduct”) that takes place two years in the future, when the pandemic has not gone away and lockdowns have been reinstated as the coronavirus continues to mutate. Casting is underway



..when you thought things couldn't get worse....


also :


https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1263761942424018944



.... what ?

what ?

Still maintain we should'e initially gone with and stuck with 6 feet apart or one coffins worth if you will.


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On an Express Elevator to Hell!!

Yes there are a few quite sardonic comments doing the rounds of people staying one coffin distances apart..

 Grey Templar wrote:
 Disciple of Fate wrote:
Saying unless you're old or compromised it will be nothing more than a bad flu is just sticking your head in the sand. Look at all the reports of side effects and permanent damage it can cause in even young people. There is absolutely no guarantee that if you catch it, it will just be a 'bad flu' at worst, this is the worst kind of hubris.


Every case I've seen of a supposedly healthy young person getting it super bad has turned out to have been a person who had some other underlying condition. That by default puts them in the compromised category.


Unfortunately I don't think that's the case. Have heard of fit, relatively young (30s, 40s) being absolutely ruined by the virus even if you survive. Also people being placed in induced comas because the coughing was giving them brain damage. It can potentially have horrendous side effects, but it's the variability (sometimes you might just get sniffles or not even know you have had it) that really makes it a problem. A virus that was always more incapacitating and reduced the ability of a host to move and spread it would actually be less dangerous in some ways in that it would be easier to control without such complex and labour intensive tracking and tracing processes.

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 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation)
Here in the US the pro-opener sentiment is very much that. To the point of people literally stating that re-opening the economy is more important than the lives lost.

why is it so difficult to understand that its not a zero sum game? economic downturn will cost lives in itself. there is plenty of evidence for that.
I would definitely be interested in evidence that you have, I want to see what sort of research has been done on the matter. But regardless of that the numbers mean there is no comparison; the virus will kill far more people far more quickly, and from the looks of things cause more chronic health damage, than a downturn which quite frankly we were due for anyways.

And that is a factor I think has gone unstated; while it can be debated I personally think we were going to hit an economic crash within the next 5 years anyways. Without going into an off-topic diversion, the economy had/has become an integrated system of wealth transfer that was unsustainable.

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Waiting for my shill money from Spiral Arm Studios

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation)
Here in the US the pro-opener sentiment is very much that. To the point of people literally stating that re-opening the economy is more important than the lives lost.


It is if keeping the economy closed is causing lives to be lost or irreparably damaged as well. You are not considering the human cost of keeping the economy closed. Suicides are already being reported on the rise in the Bay Area of CA, and many psychiatrists are warning of grim problems if the lockdown isn't lifted. Plus how do you value someone losing a business they've spent years building only to lose it all and slide into poverty. All because people like you needed to feel safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/04/mental-health-coronavirus/

https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/22 14:40:12


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On an Express Elevator to Hell!!

The problem is there is a danger to prematurely opening, not only in terms of the additional danger but also how much improvement it can actually bring to the economy. Look at the restaurants and shops in some States that have been re-opened but are hardly getting any customers - the reason being it's all well and good saying "we are open for business" but unless this is built on a foundation of trust that things are safer then a lot of people still won't take the risk. And the 'halfway house' just means that things will drag on and on.

Reading about the response in South Korea, they massively front-loaded their efforts to control the spread of the virus though a huge investment in manpower and strong central control towards testing and tracing. Through this early investment, their economy is managing to rebound because you haven't got the presence of the virus looming over everything and the public has confidence that outbreaks will be contained. Schools are re-opening, businesses, factories etc. I think it probably helped that they had a process ready for the previous SARS scare and could enact that doctrine, but contrast that to the UK where the results of our own audit on pandemic preparedness were ignored (actually reducing financial support for departments, equipment and personnel even after the exercise warned of severe shortcomings and the need for investment). When the virus emerged in China and then gradually moved to Europe, we had a head-start, we knew what was coming, and it represents an utter failure in governance that it's now midway through May and there is still not an effective testing and tracking regimen in place - and so this half-way house of abortive lockdown, and all the damage to the economy that it entails, must continue.



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A 100.000 people, probably more, have died of the virus in the US. But people just wanting to 'feel' safe is being thrown around like some sort of sneer. You know what else is based on 'feelz'? The economy, if people worry about a pandemic they're not going to go out and prop up that economy with what they 'feel' is their life, lockdown or not...

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 15:12:06


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 Grey Templar wrote:
 NinthMusketeer wrote:
 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation)
Here in the US the pro-opener sentiment is very much that. To the point of people literally stating that re-opening the economy is more important than the lives lost.


It is if keeping the economy closed is causing lives to be lost or irreparably damaged as well. You are not considering the human cost of keeping the economy closed. Suicides are already being reported on the rise in the Bay Area of CA, and many psychiatrists are warning of grim problems if the lockdown isn't lifted. Plus how do you value someone losing a business they've spent years building only to lose it all and slide into poverty. All because people like you needed to feel safe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/05/04/mental-health-coronavirus/

https://abc7news.com/suicide-covid-19-coronavirus-rates-during-pandemic-death-by/6201962/


There is truth in what you're saying. It is very sad that people are unemployed or have lost their businesses.

Personally, I've lost 3 or 4 jobs, though thankfully I have stayed in my career. My wife's lost about a half dozen, and has bounced around to 3 or 4 careers (computer and accounting skills transfer well, teaching skills don't).

The funny thing is- we always got better from losing our jobs, and being poor for a time. I don't know that you ever really recover from losing a loved one, but I do know you don't ever recover from dying.

If you want to argue human cost.... well, nothing matters more, in human terms than life, or being crippled (which the virus can do as well). You would be much more successful if you tried to lay out a way we could reopen the economy while minimizing losses, rather than continuing to support the position that the lockdown was worse than allowing a plague to sweep the country unchecked. We've already seen you can have both- healthy populations, and no general lockdowns- it just requires effective trace and track and extensive testing.

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You are not considering the human cost of keeping the economy closed.


I think you'll find that people are, they're just coming to a different conclusion to you about what it is.

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 Grey Templar wrote:
 NinthMusketeer wrote:
 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation)
Here in the US the pro-opener sentiment is very much that. To the point of people literally stating that re-opening the economy is more important than the lives lost.


It is if keeping the economy closed is causing lives to be lost or irreparably damaged as well. You are not considering the human cost of keeping the economy closed.
Please read my entire post before responding to it, thanks.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 Grey Templar wrote:
All because people like you needed to feel safe.
Well no, people like me want to follow the advice of experts on the subject (FYI, expert economists tend to agree that virus deaths would cause more damage to the economy than the shutdown). You, by your own admission, are basing your viewpoints off personal feelings. So this is not only untrue, but a deeply hypocritical accusation to level at me.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2020/05/22 15:42:09


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UK

On the subject of suicides I'd argue that a person in a mental state where isolation is driving them to suicide might well do no better (and perhaps worse) in a situation where you've got effective isolation and mass fear due to a pandemic with no government control. At least with a controlled lockdown people mostly know where they stand - it presents a more predictable situation even for all its unpredictability.

I think it also allows for more effective community support because there is a lockdown, it is organised and thus people are more aware of, say, taking care of vulnerable people. Of checking on others. It's much easier to coordinate and promote that public good will and service when you've a system that is formally declared and established. Rather than a chaos where one city or town might be reacting very different to another and where people are blind to what they should or might do and what is safe and sensible.



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The issue of suicide and mental health in the US is far, far larger than the context of the pandemic anyways.

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Gathering the Informations.

 NinthMusketeer wrote:
The issue of suicide and mental health in the US is far, far larger than the context of the pandemic anyways.

And frankly there's a whole other aspect tied to it relating to the costs of someone who might have crippling debt from having sought out medical treatment. Pretending that it's simply associated with "keeping the economy closed" or other nonsense like that is irresponsible at best and downright partisan bullcrap at worst.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 16:27:03


 
   
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 Overread wrote:
On the subject of suicides I'd argue that a person in a mental state where isolation is driving them to suicide might well do no better (and perhaps worse) in a situation where you've got effective isolation and mass fear due to a pandemic with no government control. At least with a controlled lockdown people mostly know where they stand - it presents a more predictable situation even for all its unpredictability.

I think it also allows for more effective community support because there is a lockdown, it is organised and thus people are more aware of, say, taking care of vulnerable people. Of checking on others. It's much easier to coordinate and promote that public good will and service when you've a system that is formally declared and established. Rather than a chaos where one city or town might be reacting very different to another and where people are blind to what they should or might do and what is safe and sensible.



The toll of the lockdown will never be fully known. How could we possibly track people who decide to turn to crime (a dangerous profession) because they can't afford to feed their family? Financial consequences created by people being unemployed can take years to develop too. There is no disputing this. Poverty and unemployment cause rates of suicide/crime to rise. So lockdowns kill people too. The longer it goes the worse it gets. Even to the point of international crisis and wars starting because of these lockdown. Plus realistically - the lockdowns we have in place aren't restrictive enough to make a big difference. For example...In NYC they didn't even close the subways (a subway car is probably the worst place to be in a pandemic). People crowd into grocery stores to fight over toilet paper and pork chops waiting in lines around the building. These are pretty ineffective measures to begin with.

The main thing that is frustrating is even now in this thread is people still tote that lockdowns save lives. They don't beyond keeping the hospitals from being overrun - which here in the US has never been an issue. It's not an issue in Sweeden where there were no lockdowns. A prolonged lockdown actually has the potential to cause the virus to kill more people as it ensures there is an active body of people who can transmit the virus. It really is too bad this thing has been politicized because it is undoubtedly costing more lives.

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 Xenomancers wrote:
A prolonged lockdown actually has the potential to cause the virus to kill more people as it ensures there is an active body of people who can transmit the virus. .


You're going to have to explain this one.
A lockdown restricts population movement and population interaction and duration of those interactions. Any infected "pockets" of population should, with the lockdown and self isolation due to infection, remain more isolated and thus reduce the potential spread of the virus to new populations and people. Done right with track and trace so you can put infected (and those who came into contact with infected) into not just lockdown, but full isolation for a few weeks, means that you contain and eliminate the virus spread.

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 Xenomancers wrote:
 Overread wrote:
On the subject of suicides I'd argue that a person in a mental state where isolation is driving them to suicide might well do no better (and perhaps worse) in a situation where you've got effective isolation and mass fear due to a pandemic with no government control. At least with a controlled lockdown people mostly know where they stand - it presents a more predictable situation even for all its unpredictability.

I think it also allows for more effective community support because there is a lockdown, it is organised and thus people are more aware of, say, taking care of vulnerable people. Of checking on others. It's much easier to coordinate and promote that public good will and service when you've a system that is formally declared and established. Rather than a chaos where one city or town might be reacting very different to another and where people are blind to what they should or might do and what is safe and sensible.



The toll of the lockdown will never be fully known. How could we possibly track people who decide to turn to crime (a dangerous profession) because they can't afford to feed their family? Financial consequences created by people being unemployed can take years to develop too. There is no disputing this. Poverty and unemployment cause rates of suicide/crime to rise. So lockdowns kill people too. The longer it goes the worse it gets. Even to the point of international crisis and wars starting because of these lockdown. Plus realistically - the lockdowns we have in place aren't restrictive enough to make a big difference. For example...In NYC they didn't even close the subways (a subway car is probably the worst place to be in a pandemic). People crowd into grocery stores to fight over toilet paper and pork chops waiting in lines around the building. These are pretty ineffective measures to begin with.

The main thing that is frustrating is even now in this thread is people still tote that lockdowns save lives. They don't beyond keeping the hospitals from being overrun - which here in the US has never been an issue. It's not an issue in Sweeden where there were no lockdowns. A prolonged lockdown actually has the potential to cause the virus to kill more people as it ensures there is an active body of people who can transmit the virus. It really is too bad this thing has been politicized because it is undoubtedly costing more lives.


Another one to reference back some pages behind about sweden.
Also sidenewsflash, the economy of sweden is also struggling so, no regardless if you enforce a lockdown or not this will have consequences on the economy, an economy that is anyways just chugging along since 2008 because god forbid we'd let some banks die at the time.

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Literally none of what Xenomancers has posted is true. It's the kind of nonsense that has no business being repeated and why I stated early on that there is no way to refute some of this stuff without going into politics. NYC didn't shut down their subway system, but they did operate at reduced capacity--and they shut down every night to deepclean the subway cars. They're also in the process of examining the efficacy of ultraviolet lights for the subway cars as a sterilizing measure.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 16:42:02


 
   
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 Overread wrote:
 Xenomancers wrote:
A prolonged lockdown actually has the potential to cause the virus to kill more people as it ensures there is an active body of people who can transmit the virus. .


You're going to have to explain this one.
A lockdown restricts population movement and population interaction and duration of those interactions. Any infected "pockets" of population should, with the lockdown and self isolation due to infection, remain more isolated and thus reduce the potential spread of the virus to new populations and people. Done right with track and trace so you can put infected (and those who came into contact with infected) into not just lockdown, but full isolation for a few weeks, means that you contain and eliminate the virus spread.


I think the idea is that because we have restricted where people can go it will cause everybody who does go out to go to the same places. Which results in more people being in proximity than they would otherwise. IE: If people would normally go to X, Y , and Z, but during lockdown only Z is open, then everybody will go to Z. Which results in everybody being in 1 place as opposed to 3.

I certainly know at Costco that we've had much higher numbers of people in the store at all times compared to normal. Its like a busy weekend, but every day of the week rather than just on the weekend.

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 reds8n wrote:




https://www.indiewire.com/2020/05/michael-bay-produced-songbird-could-be-the-first-coronavirus-era-film-shot-in-los-angeles-1202232341/


Michael Bay will produce what may be the first major film shot in Los Angeles during the coronavirus pandemic lockdown. Deadline reported Tuesday that “Songbird,” directed by Adam Mason, will begin production within five weeks.

While it’s unclear exactly how Mason and his team will pull it off, the production could offer a blueprint for completing films when traditional means of production are off limits.

Mason (Hulu/Blumhouse’s “Into the Dark”) co-wrote a script with Simon Boyes (“Misconduct”) that takes place two years in the future, when the pandemic has not gone away and lockdowns have been reinstated as the coronavirus continues to mutate. Casting is underway



..when you thought things couldn't get worse....

What horrors this world has wrought upon us...

Not sure how I feel about that, "too soon" seems to apply here, though subtlety and tact I guess aren't things Michael Bay has ever been accused of


 Grey Templar wrote:
 NinthMusketeer wrote:
 queen_annes_revenge wrote:
No one is valuing money over human lives.(in this situation)
Here in the US the pro-opener sentiment is very much that. To the point of people literally stating that re-opening the economy is more important than the lives lost.


It is if keeping the economy closed is causing lives to be lost or irreparably damaged as well. You are not considering the human cost of keeping the economy closed. Suicides are already being reported on the rise in the Bay Area of CA, and many psychiatrists are warning of grim problems if the lockdown isn't lifted. Plus how do you value someone losing a business they've spent years building only to lose it all and slide into poverty. All because people like you needed to feel safe.
That is not just people needing to "feel" safe, it's because almost hundred thousand people have died in a couple of months due to a virulent pandemic, over 1200 since my post yesterday and rising, and the overwhelming consensus among epidemiology and health professionals both in the US and across the entire planet was that temporary quarantine procedures were the most effective, least harmful (not harm-free) immediate action option. The deaths of tens of thousands, and the sickening of hundreds of thousands or millions, likewise is going to have a powerful economic impact in and of itself.

Again, we have mechanisms to deal with people and businesses who fall on hard times, and plenty of resources and options to devote to such if that is a concern government decides it wants to address directly, with lots of people advocating for government to do exactly that to help keep those businesses afloat.

Likewise, many businesses were going to face difficulty and potential closure regardless as a result of drops in demand due to exposure concerns, shifts in consumer behaviors and spending priorities, inability to insure themselves against pandemic related liability and losses, etc keeping them from operating or sustaining a critical mass of transactions. For example, even if a game store wasn't told to close temporarily, packing the store for bread and butter Magic nights that pay the bills wasn't exactly going to happen, and still isn't even when they're now being allowed to re-open. For any business operating with little or no reserves, as is not at all uncommon, any economic disruption was going to have the potential to tank them without outside assistance.

There's absolutely discussion to be had about re-opening and easing of restrictions and the most effective ways of doing that, most places appear to be in that process now to varying degrees, and there should be discussions about avenues for assisting those people and businesses in need. Pretending that all of this was unnecessary and did no good and was all just for "feels", or that all these people and businesses wouldn't have faced significant levels of disruption otherwise, and that the deaths of uncountable thousands would have been a worthy price to pay and that other options to address economic problems aside from opening everything back up don't exist, does not have much traction.

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 Kanluwen wrote:
Literally none of what Xenomancers has posted is true. It's the kind of nonsense that has no business being repeated and why I stated early on that there is no way to refute some of this stuff without going into politics. NYC didn't shut down their subway system, but they did operate at reduced capacity--and they shut down every night to deepclean the subway cars. They're also in the process of examining the efficacy of ultraviolet lights for the subway cars as a sterilizing measure.

How can you say that literally none of what I said is true and then state oh but this part is true. Literally everything I said is true and from the heart. I didn't say they weren't taking precautions. I inferred the subways being open at all is a mistake.

This virus transmits mostly through human contact. It is not good at transmitting off of surfaces. Being in an enclosed place with other people for extended periods of time is bad. Subways should not be operating PERIOD. Heck in laxydasical Florida you cant even get an uber right now but NYC didn't shut down the friggen subway? No wonder they have 14x more covid deaths than Florida which has been chastized in the media whilst having the lowest covid death rates even regionally.

The point is - these lock-down measures arent effective because they are halfassed.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/how-covid-spreads.html

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2020/05/22 17:08:48


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I just had my second lockdown haircut. Went for the wardaddy look. Might as well take advantage of relaxed regs.

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