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I've been pondering a bit about this topic. For some the notion of people simply selling or giving away STL's means the death of 'traditional' miniature design and production. To others it's simply a new form to be explored. Perhaps putting such a question here might mean I'm dropping it in a place that's potentially biased. But I am very curious to hear your thoughts on this.

Personally I'm a bit conflicted about the whole thing. Yeah, I design 3D stuff, sometimes I manage to sell it off to indie companies who then put it in production (printing and then casting). I love the idea that I can simply sit behind my laptop and design whatever I want. But on the other hand I see plenty of indie companies having an almost daily existential crisis whenever someone buys a 3D printer to do stuff at home.

So yeah, how will this whole thing develop? Will 3D printing kill off those indie companies, or is it simply another means to do stuff? Or is it more likely something in between?

Very curious to hear your thoughts!

at some point but we're years away as none of this is "plug and play" and require effort to clean up and, with the case of resin, is pretty toxic (even the safe stuff advertised is really nasty. It's just safer then the normal stuff but still not anything I'd like kids use).

I think for tabletop gamming AR is more likely to kill physical models (especially for those that produce models for the RPG crowd) which could cause the demise of a lot of demand for minis and it will just be the people that enjoy the physical aspect of the hobby will keep doing it.

It's been brought up before, e.g. https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/793995.page

Overall, I don't think it'll ever shift to a "purely digital" kind of thing in this hobby, where the only thing you can buy is STLs to print yourself. Even as they are becoming more affordable, usable, and more folks have them, 3d printers will never be the complete market for a variety of reasons. Some folks won't want to mess with it, so there will still be a market for "pre printed" stuff to just buy off the shelf.

Do I think we'll see more directly 3d printed models for sale, without going through the current flow of making molds from the 3d printed master and making resin casts? Yeah, I kinda do think we'll get there, and honestly for small shops that might be a good thing.

Yes, this means a shift from physical sculpting with putties and so on is becoming rarer, but even then I don't think it will go away entirely. It just won't be the main method of production. Even with an eventual shift to more digital masters, there will always be a market for "hand sculpted" and "traditionally cast" models.

Having bought a 3D printer recently, I think we are a LONG way off if it ever happens

1) The cost of the printer, accessories and all the rest easily equals a 2K army in costs. Remembering that you still need all the same tools for model cleanup, assembly and painting after you get the model out. So you don't save on any of the standard hobby accessories
Whilst you can argue that the printer saves money in the long run on models, there's still a very steep upfront cost just for the hobby alone. Very steep compared to regular model buying from a store

2) It takes HOURS to make a model. Granted smaller infantry you can load up the build plate; but still in the time to print a few parts of a large model you could drive to a store, buy it, bring it home, clean and build it in less time than it takes to print.
Bigger, higher resolution printers will reduce this somewhat, but you're still looking at hours upon hours to print

3) It's technical. There's a rafter of settings for setting up the printer digitally and that's assuming you stick to 1 brand of resin. Change brands and you've got to start all over again. Failures can be caused by several aspects and there's a steep learning curve in getting good prints out of the machine.
Add this to the hours to print aspect and there's a higher level of frustration for those who might want a more immediate result or at least success.
Again your store bought model resolves all that in seconds

4) I don't "see" the market for 3D model design for companies. Right now almost all the 3D models I see for sale are sold by basically one to a few designers and someone doing some support work. Basically REALLY small teams.
Unless a company could get their own machines to sell (and honestly GW might be the only firm big enough to attempt that barring one of the 3D printing firms doing it themselves) or find other ways to monetize I can't is it offering the same level of growth.
At least unless files could be limited to total numbers of prints that can be made from them -but when you factor in the calibration and high chance for a fail (even a bad temp or not shaking the resin could cause a fail) I can't see that being attractive nor practical.


Overall I see it being niche for a very long time to come. Especially as its not child friendly in the least; which is a key demographic for growing a miniature range (or you're relying on poaching GW customers).


I'd honestly say its perhaps more risk to things like Reaper Miniatures and the like; companies focusing on making models for DnD and such. But even there I can't see it taking off big - esp as "the hobby" is often a much smaller part of their setup.



Now it might be that 3D printers replace regular spincasting and plastic injection moulding. AT the very least they might allow for modest sized firms to use them as a different production type. But with the long hours to print I'm not sure if it would be practical for firms like GW to shift from plastic injection moulds for mass market. Resin printers are slower so you'd need many many machines and they are more labour intensive - you've got to walk to each machine; remove models; remove them from supports without breaking; wash; cure; setup the machine for the next.


There's room for advancing and room for growth and its on the grow right now (my own machine is living proof of that). But I think we are a very long way from 3D printing being the revolution that change the market for big firms and casual gamers (of which there are many)

I think 3D printing will eventually make large-scale scale model and miniature production redundant. It will become a niche thing, like what has happened with paper printing services. Some small shops will have better equipment than you and know how to get max quality out of their prints, but there is nothing stopping you from getting adequate results in your own home.

Now as for how long it will take until tech has matured to such a state that 16K printers can be bought from Walmart for about a hundred, and nontoxic, water washable resin costs pennies per kg, I don't know.. could be anything from 5-15 years.

You must remember that 3D printers have a lot of practical uses outside of scale models & miniatures. Therefore I see it as inevitable that the tech will mature significantly going forward, to the point where it's idiot-proof as well as child-proof to print HD items.

But the art of painting scale models / miniatures will likely be around for much, much longer.

 Overread wrote:


Now it might be that 3D printers replace regular spincasting and plastic injection moulding. AT the very least they might allow for modest sized firms to use them as a different production type. But with the long hours to print I'm not sure if it would be practical for firms like GW to shift from plastic injection moulds for mass market. Resin printers are slower so you'd need many many machines and they are more labour intensive - you've got to walk to each machine; remove models; remove them from supports without breaking; wash; cure; setup the machine for the next.

For large-scale production, like GW and the bigger firms need, direct 3d printing isn't cost effective, for sure. If you're doing thousands of models of a given sprue, plastic injection is the most cost effective (even though it has the highest set up costs in the molds). For smaller indie companies, who sell maybe 100 of a given model in a year, I think direct 3d printing is actually a pretty good option, since you can "print on demand" as needed to fill orders and maybe add a little backstock. This was talked about a bit in the other thread I linked, with some insight from folks who have done it to fulfill Kickstarters and so on. "Boutique" shops would likely benefit the most from this method, but there's definitely a point where the volume needed would push you towards injection molding (though I'm not sure right now about the metal spin casting cost comparison; resin casting is pretty close for low to medium volumes, including labor time).

I'm sure even Reaper does enough volume that it's still a better cost for them to do the molds and injection runs, particularly with their Bones line.

It's taking a large bite out of spin casting for sure. But until the grognards who, after a lifetime of lead exposure, lack the mental acumen to switch over die of old age, there will be a market for resins and even metals.

Injection molding, probably never. Printing is just too slow and nasty to compete with machines that barf out a sprue every 2 seconds.

Aye those in both of those situations the market isn't actually changing, just the production method and material. You'd still have to buy your model/sprue from the store and perhaps even put it together. What it would mean is total freedom to create almost whatever shape the designer wants without having ot have highly skill parting staff working the back end to design the moulds. This is something where GW has a very clear edge over many of the competition; especially so when its all in-house and easy to communicate (those dealing with factories in China have not just a language barrier, but also vast distances and all the rest to contend with).

Customers might not see any change at all in terms of costs. However it might well allow smaller firms to carry a larger range of models if they can shift to print on demand services. This, of course, will only work if online buying becomes more and more normal and if model makers can also network together to create a system whereby once you're into the hobby its easy to navigate online and find different designers and firms.

Of course this is also suggesting that wargames and models become a less highstreet focused product, which isn't impossible to consider when one thinks of the general highstreets of today. Stores might wind up closing doors as a shop and reopen as a community and game centre bolted onto a restaurant and such. Supplying basic hobby essentials perhaps, but in general not worried about having to sell the "game" itself.

Though as noted above some might well do local print on demand supply for customers - networking with designers and game makers to get access to licences to print and such.




I think one elephant in the room we have to consider is money. The market as such will go where the money is and if something comes along that might take the money away it might never actually get developed and pushed for. Take the point above about making other things with a resin 3D printer - the idea of building or repairing and replacing things at home is almost an alien concept to todays business and market which would instead expect you to throw it away and buy a new one (heck some even build products designed to break - or at least designed to be as weak as they can get away with). It would require a massive social shift in attitudes from customers to big business and a shift in how we spend our money and how firms can profit off customers.

this isn't just big business either; its also at the small end of the scale too. There HAS to be profit to provide for a persons income to allow them to dedicate their working life (or a portion of it) toward game work.

 Overread wrote:

Customers might not see any change at all in terms of costs. However it might well allow smaller firms to carry a larger range of models if they can shift to print on demand services. This, of course, will only work if online buying becomes more and more normal and if model makers can also network together to create a system whereby once you're into the hobby its easy to navigate online and find different designers and firms.

My Mini Factory is kinda starting to tread that route. https://www.myminifactory.com/

Also, a great number of the pretty successful Patreons that are doing 3d files do offer a "merchant" level, where you get a license to print and sell their stuff. So yeah, that's a new trend. I could see some small businesses doing ok (and some appear to be already, on etsy and eBay for example) just subbing to those Patreons and offering a POD service.

Of course we haven't seen the long term medical fallout of printer farms yet, it might still turn out that being elbow deep in resin 24/7 is asbestos level bad.

Maybe I'm looking too far in advance but my assumptions of eventually is we'll get some new 3dprinting tech, or our kids will, that will render a lot of products being manufactured moot.

I have to agree with the people saying it needs to get a LOT easier first. I like 3d printing, but doing it is easily a hobby in itself. They're fiddly and technical.

In the foreseeable future, the biggest change is that you're going to see a wider variety of figures from more small companies. If you go look on etsy, there's a LOT of 3d printed minis out there and it's just going to expand. Printing will probably never match injection molding for mass production, but it has a big advantage in variety. We're entering a world where it's feasible for a small business to produce really good small runs of stuff.

 TheWaspinator wrote:
I have to agree with the people saying it needs to get a LOT easier first. I like 3d printing, but doing it is easily a hobby in itself. They're fiddly and technical.

In the foreseeable future, the biggest change is that you're going to see a wider variety of figures from more small companies. If you go look on etsy, there's a LOT of 3d printed minis out there and it's just going to expand. Printing will probably never match injection molding for mass production, but it has a big advantage in variety. We're entering a world where it's feasible for a small business to produce really good small runs of stuff.

And for garage companies to finally produce wargames with complete model lines in STL form. Imagine a 40k type game releasing with 10+ factions right off the bat, including tanks or monsters that are far beyond most companies' abilities to supply physically, along with any unique templates, widgets and dice the designers' hearts desire.

But it does leave one to wonder how such companies will keep making money. In theory one person can get their hands on the STL files and then theyre gone

 Malika2 wrote:
But it does leave one to wonder how such companies will keep making money. In theory one person can get their hands on the STL files and then theyre gone

The same is true of video games, movies and music.

Possibly with FDM for terrain, since it has just massively blown up the market and potential, MDF is now looking a little weak in comparison to printed, fully detailed terrain.

FDM can be plug-and-play, my broad experience with a prusa mini has been pretty straightforward, very easy to use and complexity of fixing it when things go wrong isn't all that different to an inkjet printer jam. Once bed levelling is no longer a thing by standard and enclosures/reliability tech currently reserved for expensive printers (ultimakers are the gold standard at current) becomes more commonplace it will reach the point of becoming a common hobby tool.

Resin printing for minis will always have the chemical gunk issue, and that's harder to resolve. Eventually there may be a printer that self drains, cleans, and cures and spits out a nice finished piece at the end but until then the ick factor will keep it from going mainstream.

I think it will eventually make certain kinds of mini manufacture unprofitable. It's hardly profitable for many producers as is.

I think people will still sculpt by hand though. People didn't stop painting with canvas or playing on physical instruments because of software replacements.

3D printing is far away from being a problem for plastic miniatures

unless there is a printer in every house, it is not really an issue

a realistic number would be that there are 1-2 high quality printer in each gaming club
making a full army will take about half a week and 20 people of the club want to start a new game
so 5-10 weeks waiting time and the minis are not ready to use but need some additional work of cleaning up as well

on the other hand the trend is going to less work needed for modeling and free poseable minis are already too much for some people
for those 3D printing their own models will never be an option

the price point is a tricky one, as for now it is attractive because of GWs price point
anyone who playes 2 factions feels that it is cheaper to buy a printer and some files than buy directly from GW

while looking at historical models, unless you want something really exotic that no one makes (and here you might have to make your own STL files first) you won't make your money back by just printing 2 armies

for a worldwide model release for a new range or new game, HIPS will still be the way to go

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Malika2 wrote:
But it does leave one to wonder how such companies will keep making money. In theory one person can get their hands on the STL files and then theyre gone

The same is true of video games, movies and music.

That's interesting concept. As while it's true wargaming takes so much time on the players part before they can even play the game (print, assemble, possibly paint, possibly terrain) that it's not quite the same as other forms of entertainment that you can just start consuming near instantly (some games have a download) so I don't know if company really could release a new wargame every year with new rules and such and have people really keep buying them. But every 3-4 years where everything is out at the start. Be curious to see how that lands.

I was responding more to Malika's assertion that piracy will sink digital sales.

Obviously just churning out endless product for digital hoarders who barely really even print anything is a good way to combat it, as the hundreds of STL patreons and KS show. There's always a thousand people happy to back the 47th medieval fantasy village.

I also firmly believe that people understand that artists need to eat and there will always be enough who financially support quality work even if it's available for free.

I think one of the keys for indie companies to keep a good revenue flow is to emulate the various Patreons that do 3d miniatures right now. You "subscribe" essentially, paying X bucks per month, and you get some goodies every month.

Artisan Guild, for example, charges $10 USD per month, with an optional tier for $35 that lets you sell their prints (not their STLs). They have, as I type this, 7,992 patrons. That's at least $79,920 they're bringing in per month (not sure what the break down of regular vs. merchant is, so just estimated with the lowest tier).

A small company might be able to get some type of subscription going, and whether they're giving new STLs or other content every month, they might actually do better than if trying to go into the regular old market with distributors (which is getting harder and harder to do) and trying to get LGSes to stock their product. Not saying it's easy nor a guarantee, just that along with the increasing popularity of STLs, there are other selling venues/methods as well.

 Overread wrote:

Spoiler:

Having bought a 3D printer recently, I think we are a LONG way off if it ever happens

1) The cost of the printer, accessories and all the rest easily equals a 2K army in costs. Remembering that you still need all the same tools for model cleanup, assembly and painting after you get the model out. So you don't save on any of the standard hobby accessories
Whilst you can argue that the printer saves money in the long run on models, there's still a very steep upfront cost just for the hobby alone. Very steep compared to regular model buying from a store

2) It takes HOURS to make a model. Granted smaller infantry you can load up the build plate; but still in the time to print a few parts of a large model you could drive to a store, buy it, bring it home, clean and build it in less time than it takes to print.
Bigger, higher resolution printers will reduce this somewhat, but you're still looking at hours upon hours to print

3) It's technical. There's a rafter of settings for setting up the printer digitally and that's assuming you stick to 1 brand of resin. Change brands and you've got to start all over again. Failures can be caused by several aspects and there's a steep learning curve in getting good prints out of the machine.
Add this to the hours to print aspect and there's a higher level of frustration for those who might want a more immediate result or at least success.
Again your store bought model resolves all that in seconds

4) I don't "see" the market for 3D model design for companies. Right now almost all the 3D models I see for sale are sold by basically one to a few designers and someone doing some support work. Basically REALLY small teams.
Unless a company could get their own machines to sell (and honestly GW might be the only firm big enough to attempt that barring one of the 3D printing firms doing it themselves) or find other ways to monetize I can't is it offering the same level of growth.
At least unless files could be limited to total numbers of prints that can be made from them -but when you factor in the calibration and high chance for a fail (even a bad temp or not shaking the resin could cause a fail) I can't see that being attractive nor practical.


Overall I see it being niche for a very long time to come. Especially as its not child friendly in the least; which is a key demographic for growing a miniature range (or you're relying on poaching GW customers).


I'd honestly say its perhaps more risk to things like Reaper Miniatures and the like; companies focusing on making models for DnD and such. But even there I can't see it taking off big - esp as "the hobby" is often a much smaller part of their setup.



Now it might be that 3D printers replace regular spincasting and plastic injection moulding. AT the very least they might allow for modest sized firms to use them as a different production type. But with the long hours to print I'm not sure if it would be practical for firms like GW to shift from plastic injection moulds for mass market. Resin printers are slower so you'd need many many machines and they are more labour intensive - you've got to walk to each machine; remove models; remove them from supports without breaking; wash; cure; setup the machine for the next.


There's room for advancing and room for growth and its on the grow right now (my own machine is living proof of that). But I think we are a very long way from 3D printing being the revolution that change the market for big firms and casual gamers (of which there are many)

One other factor that keeps people from getting a printer and main reason why I haven't, space. Not everyone has a spot in the house they can setup a printer and wash station and deal with the mess from printing. Especially a space where you don't need to worry about fumes. And for those who say there are resins that don't smell, I have worked around enough chemicals throughout my career that just because you can't smell it, doesn't mean it isn't hazardous.

For the industry, I don't see it replacing plastics, but it wouldn't surprise me if in the near future, people started getting Forgeworld kits that were printed.

You all are talking about plastics like any miniature company can afford to make them and there's what? 3-4 in the fantasy sci-fi and then a few in historicals (which I don't really follow) out of how many different companies?

What if GW offered a heroforge type of site where you could customize poses and equipment for everything in your army and they printed it and shipped it to you? What if new colored printing tech was made affordable to companies like GW so you didn't have to paint anything and didn't look like sand? Why would people want plastics?

Keep in mind two things.

1) miniature tabletop gaming is already an anachronistic hobby compared to video gaming. We are doing this because we prefer an analog experience. AR gaming is, in my eyes, incredibly unlikely to replace miniatures.

2) we exist in a world in which the collossal greed of corporations often succeeds at torpedoing what could be promising new technology. When there are no established pricing norms in place from a more reasonable age, market demand can easily be demolished by money grubbing. Streaming, VR, advanced 3d movies, e-readers, any industry that doesnt have preexisting market expectation and competition is at high risk to be pumped and dumped by The Most Efficient Way To Organize A Society Ever Pinky Swearsies

Piracy is / will be a thing, that's unavoidable. But the music and film industries have survived it and the rise of 3D printing patreons are evidence that it can be managed here too. The key is to keep things cheap enough and easily accessible enough that piracy doesn't become the better option. Artisan Guild and Titan Forge, among others, show that people are indeed willing to pay $10 to avoid having to go to sketchy websites.

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Malika2 wrote:
But it does leave one to wonder how such companies will keep making money. In theory one person can get their hands on the STL files and then theyre gone

The same is true of video games, movies and music.

Which isn't a good thing per se. Many famous musicians are forced to sell off their entire catalogs because making actual money by selling music to their fans has become...well...not that lucrative anymore. So if I as a designer would release my STL's into the world, how would I break even?

the_scotsman wrote:
Keep in mind two things.

1) miniature tabletop gaming is already an anachronistic hobby compared to video gaming. We are doing this because we prefer an analog experience. AR gaming is, in my eyes, incredibly unlikely to replace miniatures.

You're thinking wargaming. which I think there will always be some people that like the analog experience but newer generations that might grow up with whatever AR ends up being probably wouldn't be as opposed to digital in person gaming.

That being said AR's big impact will be in the larger market of RPGs which a lot of of miniature purchases are for and I don't see many there caring to keep the analog aspect for the battles. You already see that with Roll20 and RPG servers for MMOs.

 Malika2 wrote:

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Malika2 wrote:
But it does leave one to wonder how such companies will keep making money. In theory one person can get their hands on the STL files and then theyre gone

The same is true of video games, movies and music.

Which isn't a good thing per se. Many famous musicians are forced to sell off their entire catalogs because making actual money by selling music to their fans has become...well...not that lucrative anymore. So if I as a designer would release my STL's into the world, how would I break even?

Perhaps that state of affairs stems more from fans realizing that record labels keep 99% of the profits anyway. They should all just have Paypal donate buttons, if you squeeze em 5$ once they'll have made more money off of you than if you bought all their albums.

You're Troublemaker Games, right? Pretty sure it's all online, so you have first hand experience on the effects already.

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Malika2 wrote:

 lord_blackfang wrote:

 Malika2 wrote:
But it does leave one to wonder how such companies will keep making money. In theory one person can get their hands on the STL files and then theyre gone

The same is true of video games, movies and music.

Which isn't a good thing per se. Many famous musicians are forced to sell off their entire catalogs because making actual money by selling music to their fans has become...well...not that lucrative anymore. So if I as a designer would release my STL's into the world, how would I break even?

Perhaps that state of affairs stems more from fans realizing that record labels keep 99% of the profits anyway. They should all just have Paypal donate buttons, if you squeeze em 5$ once they'll have made more money off of you than if you bought all their albums.

You're Troublemaker Games, right? Pretty sure it's all online, so you have first hand experience on the effects already.

Regarding that money model you suggest, it's not that hopeful sadly enough. Whilst yes, some would donate, most would want the free option. Can't blame them, this is how capitalism programs us. But it does have certain consequences. Especially now that concerts arent happening.

And Im not Troublemaker Games btw, I do however do some desogn work for Vanguard Miniatures

 Monkeysloth wrote:

What if GW offered a heroforge type of site where you could customize poses and equipment for everything in your army and they printed it and shipped it to you? What if new colored printing tech was made affordable to companies like GW so you didn't have to paint anything and didn't look like sand? Why would people want plastics?

difference between getting your army now or wait 2-3 months until it is printed
as even GW would not be able to set up a printer for each order coming in, so people would have to wait until their unit is done

not talking about that much more people need to work on the factory to maintain those things, increasing the costs and in addition to waiting time there would be a higher price too

so why would people want to have cheap plastic now, when they can wait months for their more expensive 3D printed unit