Switch Theme:

Rampant inflation  [RSS] Share on facebook Share on Twitter Submit to Reddit
»
Author Message
Advert


Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you:
  • No adverts like this in the forums anymore.
  • Times and dates in your local timezone.
  • Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance.
  • Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely.
  • Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net.
If you are already a member then feel free to login now.




Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

Yeah, the war has hit a broad range of industries in different ways that are triggering inflationary effects. Energy (to include oil and natural gas) sanctions on Russia are driving up energy prices globally, even on nations that don't get those resources from Russia - this in and of itself isn't really inflationary and is transient based on the resulting artificial supply shortages (i.e. will subside whenever those sanctions get lifted and public perception allows for the purchase and import of those resources again), but what is inflationary is the knock-on effects these are having on other industries that are paying more for the energy and fuel needed to conduct business and are in turn passing this on to customers. Some percentage of the increase in cost in your carton of milk or eggs, etc. is directly attributable to the war in Ukraine as a result of the increased fuel costs involved in transporting those goods to market, as well as the increased cost for the manufacturers in transporting animals, feed, and other products to the farms, etc.

Wheat and grain, as well as a number of other major agricultural products and crops are going to be more directly impacted as well given Russia and Ukraines status as major wheat and grain exporters. The fact that there are major agricultural disturbances (widespread droughts and widespread crop failures) occurring at the same time in other parts of the world aren't helping matters. The 22 year long US west-coast megadrought is looking at another record-breaking year (and according to a recent study is the worst drought in the history of the region going back ~1200 years based on soil and rock samples, tree rings, etc.) and has expanded to something like 60% of the country. Expected crop failures and low agricultural yields will put a heavy strain on domestic agricultural production and in turn demand for ag-imports from other areas, this will serve to drive up prices as well.

Then theres the ongoing chip shortage that started because of COVID impact to production capacity which has had ripple effects all over supply chains and drive up costs on a number of products and goods as a result, and is now being made worse by the fact that Ukraine was the producer of somewhere between 25% and 50% (depending on your source and what specific regions, industrial processes and gas purity grades they are including/excluding in the count, etc. for example Ukrainian neon makes up 90% of high-grade neon gas used in US-based gas-phase laser manufactured semiconductors, whereas Chinese chip manufacturers make more use of Chinese-produced neon though they are still heavily reliant on Ukrainian imports) of the global neon gas production used in the manufacture of chips and electronics. One of the two major neon-production plants in Ukraine was located in Mariupol and I'm guessing that isn't coming back anytime soon... Meanwhile Russia is something like 1/3rd of the global Palladium supply used in chip production for sensor devices and RAM/hard drives, etc. and obviously sanctions are going to curtail access to that supply for a lot of manufacturers, which will drive up the price of the supply from other producers, which will in turn result in the price of anything that relies on electronics, as well as anything that utilizes consumable electronic hardware as part of its production process, etc.

To say that the war in Ukraine isn't having a major impact on inflation and supply chain disruptions is laughably short-sighted (and methinks an indicator that certain posters here are eating up some "alternative propaganda" based on their comments).

EDIT - Also worth mentioning, the Fed doesn't print money. Anyone claiming it does has demonstrated that they aren't worth listening to and don't actually have a solid grasp or comprehension of the topic being discussed, and are merely regurgitating talking points they picked up on social media, youtube, etc. that they don't fully comprehend or understand.

This message was edited 4 times. Last update was at 2022/05/24 18:44:30


CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in si
Foxy Wildborne







And yet the fact remains that Dakka would still have a thread titled "Rampant inflation" if Ukraine and Russia were all sunshine and rainbows (rainbows probably in jail)

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/24 18:43:28


Posters on ignore list: 36

40k Potica Edition - 40k patch with reactions, suppression and all that good stuff. Feedback thread here.

Gangs of Nu Ork - Necromunda / Gorkamorka expansion supporting all faction. Feedback thread here
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

Sure, but the thread was basically dead from mid-January until the end of April. The thread started December 15th, ran through 3 pages of posts by January 18th or so, had 6 posts between the 19th and April 29th, and then since then had 2 more pages of posts.

Why do you think that is? Its because inflation has worsened in its severity and impact to a broader range of market sectors since the pre-war period and is hitting more consumers in more areas. The COVID-based inflation was not as severe and based on some data and analysis was starting to begin the process of correcting itself when the war began.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/24 18:51:53


CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in si
Foxy Wildborne







I think because people got told the inflation, that's been happening for like a year, is now Russia's fault.

Russia has nothing to do, for example, with the fact the oil industry has decided to stop investing in new bores.

Posters on ignore list: 36

40k Potica Edition - 40k patch with reactions, suppression and all that good stuff. Feedback thread here.

Gangs of Nu Ork - Necromunda / Gorkamorka expansion supporting all faction. Feedback thread here
   
Made in gb
Leader of the Sept







I kind of hope that public pressure and environmental regulations are impacting that, but I agree it’s unlikely due to any direct war impact.


Please excuse any spelling errors. I use a tablet frequently and software keyboards are a pain!

Terranwing - w3;d1;l1
51st Dunedinw2;d0;l0
Cadre Coronal Afterglow w1;d0;l0 
   
Made in si
Foxy Wildborne







 Flinty wrote:
I kind of hope that public pressure and environmental regulations are impacting that, but I agree it’s unlikely due to any direct war impact.



Oil is Old Money and Old Money is insanely careful. Allegedly the negative oil price during covid gave them PTSD and they just bailed wholesale. I would expect them slowly dipping their toes in whatever the next big greenwashing fads are.

Posters on ignore list: 36

40k Potica Edition - 40k patch with reactions, suppression and all that good stuff. Feedback thread here.

Gangs of Nu Ork - Necromunda / Gorkamorka expansion supporting all faction. Feedback thread here
   
Made in us
Humming Great Unclean One of Nurgle






 lord_blackfang wrote:
I think because people got told the inflation, that's been happening for like a year, is now Russia's fault.

Russia has nothing to do, for example, with the fact the oil industry has decided to stop investing in new bores.
Inflation was bad, but what kicked off the discussion again was it getting dramatically worse. Trying to pretend like the war isn't a big factor is no different than trying to pretend Corporate Wild West isn't a big factor. The place to direct this criticism would be at, say, the person who expressed that regulation causes monopolies, which is just a gross misunderstanding of economics.

Road to Renown! It's like classic Path to Glory, but repaired, remastered, expanded! https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/778170.page

I chose an avatar I feel best represents the quality of my post history.

I try to view Warhammer as more of a toolbox with examples than fully complete games. 
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

 lord_blackfang wrote:
I think because people got told the inflation, that's been happening for like a year, is now Russia's fault.
Russia has nothing to do, for example, with the fact the oil industry has decided to stop investing in new bores.


No no. If it was because the inflation was always there but people were suddenly blaming Russia, you would have still seen a consistent level of interest in the topic throughout that time period as the impact would have been omnipresent because people would have been inconvenienced by it at a fairly consistent level from January through April. But thats not what happened, the early spike in impact that was witnessed at the timeframe the thread was started began to subside, before increasing in intensity some time later (as a result of other events - at least in the US it seems nobody really gives a feth about COVID anymore and theres not a lot to suggest that recent supply disruptions and cost increases have much of anything to do with it) enough to renew interest in discussion on the topic, and its only relatively recently that the "Russian connection" began to be established in posts (as opposed to the April/early May timeframe). The only reason I started posting in this thread again after all these months (for example) was because, I personally, had finally been inconvenienced by it enough to start caring again.

And yes, Russia does have something to do (albeit indirectly) with the fact that the oil industry hadn't been drilling new bores. Russian crude is cheap and plentiful, its also the same type of heavy sour crude that US oil refineries are geared to process. The domestically extractable oil is overwhelmingly light and sweet (these are technical terms, I assure you) and uneconomically expensive due to geographic constraints and the extraction processes needed to access them. US refineries are overwhelmingly not set up to refine light sweet crudes and the reconfiguration of the refineries required in order for them to process light sweets is horrendously expensive. On top of that, the refining process for light and sweet crudes is incredibly more cost intensive in and of itself than the process used to refine heavy sour crudes, regardless of what US refineries are configured to process (i.e. even if US refineries were set up to process light sweets, it would still cost more than it does to refine heavy sours). The net result is that domestically extractable crudes are significantly more expensive to extract and process than it would be to import and refine heavy sour crudes from elsewhere. The industry didn't open new bores because there wasn't any money to be made by doing so.

Incidentally, with the prices being what they are today, it makes a lot more sense to extract and refine domestic light sweets but many of the light sweet wells were permanently capped years ago when it became too expensive to continue production after the more easily accessible bores dried up. Likewise, due to the costs and leadtimes involved with opening new bores and wells, as well as the time to see a financial return on those costs, oil companies are not in a rush to increase production and are being conservative with their applications to drill new wells, as it could quickly turn into an expensive financial boondoggle (the sort of thing which could cause a massive collapse of the US energy sector) if they rushed to increase production and invested massively into new wells and bores only to see the price collapse before they could see a return. Even if they did - because the light sweet crude refining capacity in the US is so small, and the time and cost associated with opening new refineries or reconfiguring existing ones is so large, there would be a massive bottleneck on production that couldn't be easily lifted and would prevent domestic crude production from really easing the cost burden or having any financial impact on other markets. Realistically, it would be years before refining capacity would be able to catch up to theoretical production capacity in this scenario, during which time the oil companies would literally have to pay people to take their excess supply - so that being the case, regardless of what the price of crude is going for, any increase in domestic production capacity is going to be slow and gradual, and any massive government stimulus or investment into accelerating that risks creating a dramatically worse problem for global markets than anything we are seeing today (unless... you want the US to drag down the global economy into another recession?).

Anyway, back to Russia. While only something like 3% of US imports came from Russia, the huge supply surplus that Russia generated served to artificially lower prices of heavy sour crudes from other areas (chiefly Canada, LatAm, the North Sea, and OPEC states) and keep OPECs rates in check, and made heavy crude import and refining the economic choice for domestic production, which served to make the already uneconomical drilling for light sweet crudes in the US even more uneconomical. The few domestic wells and fields that do produce heavy sours are largely tapped to capacity and thus cannot supply much more than they already are. When sanctions hit Russian heavy sour crudes, and OPEC refused to increase production, the laws of supply and demand came into play and the cost of heavy sour crudes from non-Russian suppliers skyrocketed as a result of increased demand vs a more or less fixed supply (meanwhile Russia is struggling to even give away its crude and is running out of places to store it which is potentially forming another crisis point, but we'll see what develops). If the US was the only state sanctioning Russian crude, it would not have made any impact on energy prices at all, but because most of Russias former clientele are banning import of Russian heavy sours now, they are now hitting up the US's suppliers for the same supply and in turn driving the cost up for everyone. So yeah, it pretty much is a war impact, and thats evidenced by the fact that you can buy a barrel of Russian crude for ~$75 vs Brent crude (which is what the US imports) at ~$115. If there was no war, the price of oil most likely would not have changed significantly from where it was in January and as the US didn't really import Russian crude *anyway* there would have been no reason why the US opening new bores, or lack thereof, would have factored into this.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2022/05/24 20:11:01


CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in si
Foxy Wildborne







Well, a war impact in the same sense that someone on a hunger strike is being starved by the entity they are protesting...

As for the first paragraph, the activity of this thread, as with all political discussion, is explained entirely by media coverage.

Posters on ignore list: 36

40k Potica Edition - 40k patch with reactions, suppression and all that good stuff. Feedback thread here.

Gangs of Nu Ork - Necromunda / Gorkamorka expansion supporting all faction. Feedback thread here
   
Made in us
Master Tormentor





St. Louis

 lord_blackfang wrote:
Toofast wrote:
30 year olds having heart attacks and collapsing right now


Wait what what is this?

He thinks covid vaccines kill people.
   
Made in us
Decrepit Dakkanaut





JWBS wrote:
 lord_blackfang wrote:
Maybe you should have put some regulations in place that would prevent supply of such a critical product being at the mercy of the whimsy of a handful of monopolists.

That's kind of a logical paradox though isn't it, since it's the regulation in the first place that creates this particular problem (and not as an unwanted side-effect, but as a specifically planned result), adding another regulation to countermand the previous regulation seems a bit farcical imo.


Just to address, with a different example, this point. . . Here in the US, we have certain regulations regarding emissions that apparently drive some of the fuel prices seen at the pump. I saw an article yesterday on either Reuters or AP News that the Biden admin was "considering" waiving/dropping some of those rules temporarily in order to help "save people" at the pump.

To which I say, "F That". . . Now, don't get me wrong, getting hit at the pump when you're a long-haul trucker sucks, and that particular industry will cause ripples of price increases at grocery stores on things that are necessary to survive. Personally, that should be addressed separately and in a way which doesn't screw over most consumers.

But, America as a whole is obsessed with overly large, useless vehicles. Like the guy about 4 miles from my house. . he lives in tiny-plot-of-land suburbia, like, the kind of plot where his Chevy Silverado 3500HD dually literally cannot park straight on his driveway and fit. It would be sticking out over into the street. Or my favorite customers: the DINK "karen" who drives a "denali" (Yukon) because of some silly notion that being in a vehicle that is larger, and heavier than even most police vehicles will keep her safe. . . That sort of thing needs to be addressed in a big way, and not just via inflation (but that's a whole different thread, so I won't derail things further)
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





 lord_blackfang wrote:
JWBS wrote:
 lord_blackfang wrote:
Maybe you should have put some regulations in place that would prevent supply of such a critical product being at the mercy of the whimsy of a handful of monopolists.

That's kind of a logical paradox though isn't it, since it's the regulation in the first place that creates this particular problem (and not as an unwanted side-effect, but as a specifically planned result), adding another regulation to countermand the previous regulation seems a bit farcical imo.


I'm absolutely amazed that you managed to spin food safety regulations as being the problem here.

Let's just do way with those and let the free market decide what the appropriate ratio of price vs toxic waste in baby food is.

I didn't make that claim though, that seems like a deliberate mischaracterisation of what I actually said. I wrote that the industry was monopolised (deliberately) via regulation, and to demonopolise with further regulation is a perverse idea. If you think the special interest groups and lobbyists involved in creating these monopolies are unaware of the consequences, and the benefits for themselves, I think you have a naive perspective.

/Edit - Also my toilet roll increased from £4 for a pack of 16 to £5, +25% since last time I bought it! Even more than cheese, which I thought was steep enough :s

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2022/05/25 05:18:15


 
   
Made in si
Foxy Wildborne







I apologize, I was at the time unaware of the deeper machinations later explained by chaos0xomega. The common explanation seen outside of the US is just that a major plant was shut down because of bacterial contamination, so I thought you were referring to food safety regulations.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2022/05/25 08:50:49


Posters on ignore list: 36

40k Potica Edition - 40k patch with reactions, suppression and all that good stuff. Feedback thread here.

Gangs of Nu Ork - Necromunda / Gorkamorka expansion supporting all faction. Feedback thread here
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

To refer to the government subsidies and welfare benefits as "regulations" is itself a gross and deliberate mischaracterization of the issue. That is not what the term regulation means nor is it how its understood by pretty much anyone.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 lord_blackfang wrote:


As for the first paragraph, the activity of this thread, as with all political discussion, is explained entirely by media coverage.


Sounds like a heck of a lot of copium to me.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/25 12:10:21


CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





I didn't refer to either of those things as regulations, though government subsidies are, very obviously, a perfect example of regulation.
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

No, they aren't. By definition regulations are government mandated rules and policies that must be followed under threat of enforced penalty. The baby formula manufacturers are not obligated to participate in the government subsidy program and there is no enforced penalty for them if they choose not to. Ultimately, the subsidy is a fixed-price sole-source purchasing contract issued by government on behalf of subsidy program participants, i.e. a voluntary agreement between the government and manufacturers to sell product to select individuals at a set price.

Program participants purchase the formula from their local retailers using a voucher system. The retailers then get reimbursed by the governemnt for the full retail price of the formula sold via voucher, in turn the government then gets a rebate from the manufacturer for the formula sold per the terms of the contract, so that at the end the government has paid a severely discounted price to purchase the formula on behalf of the recipient.

That is not a regulation by any reasonable or sensible interpretation of the definition of the term.


CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in us
Battlefield Tourist




MN (Currently in WY)

JWBS wrote:
I didn't refer to either of those things as regulations, though government subsidies are, very obviously, a perfect example of regulation.


Interesting. Can you provide me your definition of "regulation"?

Support Blood and Spectacles Publishing:
https://www.patreon.com/Bloodandspectaclespublishing 
   
Made in gb
Leader of the Sept







There is at least one paper out there in the subject

https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/downloads/p2676v93m?locale=en

I don’t have the competence to know if it’s any good, or the status of the author or institution.

Please excuse any spelling errors. I use a tablet frequently and software keyboards are a pain!

Terranwing - w3;d1;l1
51st Dunedinw2;d0;l0
Cadre Coronal Afterglow w1;d0;l0 
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





chaos0xomega wrote:No, they aren't. By definition regulations are government mandated rules and policies that must be followed under threat of enforced penalty. The baby formula manufacturers are not obligated to participate in the government subsidy program and there is no enforced penalty for them if they choose not to. Ultimately, the subsidy is a fixed-price sole-source purchasing contract issued by government on behalf of subsidy program participants, i.e. a voluntary agreement between the government and manufacturers to sell product to select individuals at a set price.

Program participants purchase the formula from their local retailers using a voucher system. The retailers then get reimbursed by the governemnt for the full retail price of the formula sold via voucher, in turn the government then gets a rebate from the manufacturer for the formula sold per the terms of the contract, so that at the end the government has paid a severely discounted price to purchase the formula on behalf of the recipient.

That is not a regulation by any reasonable or sensible interpretation of the definition of the term.



I said regulation, not a regulation. In macroeconomic terms, state mandated monopolies are very much regulation.
/Edit - including subsidised monopolies.
Easy E wrote:
JWBS wrote:
I didn't refer to either of those things as regulations, though government subsidies are, very obviously, a perfect example of regulation.


Interesting. Can you provide me your definition of "regulation"?


A rule or directive made and maintained by an authority, or, in this case, The action or process of regulating or being regulated.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/25 19:41:50


 
   
Made in us
Battlefield Tourist




MN (Currently in WY)

So a subsidy is a regulation because it is a rule in order to provide tax incentive for doing a specific action or behavior?

Support Blood and Spectacles Publishing:
https://www.patreon.com/Bloodandspectaclespublishing 
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





I should have specified subsidised monopolies when I said perfect example. Anyway this seems to be getting kinda semantic (or at the very least, too finegrain, in an irrelevant way, imo).
   
Made in gb
Leader of the Sept







Governments regulate things. Some times they using formal legislative based Regulations (I.e. the Building Regulations 2010 as amended), and sometimes they regulate things by other means. I think the point is that subsidies can be used to small are regulate.

Please excuse any spelling errors. I use a tablet frequently and software keyboards are a pain!

Terranwing - w3;d1;l1
51st Dunedinw2;d0;l0
Cadre Coronal Afterglow w1;d0;l0 
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

 Flinty wrote:
There is at least one paper out there in the subject
https://scholarspace.library.gwu.edu/downloads/p2676v93m?locale=en
I don’t have the competence to know if it’s any good, or the status of the author or institution.


Regulatory subsidies are a specific subset of subsidies with specific structure, process/function, and purpose. Whether the topic at hand meets that is overly technical and subject to interpretation. But also:

Spoiler:


I said regulation, not a regulation. In macroeconomic terms, state mandated monopolies are very much regulation.


Its not a state mandated monopoly, competitors are able to freely distribute and sell their product, and are not excluded from doing so by any rule or policy thereby falling far short of the coercive criteria needed in order to establish it as a monopoly. Contrast this to something like a power, water, or sewer utility service provider where in many (if not most, at least in the US) areas there are limited options (if you have any option at all and aren't in an area with exclusivity to a single provider) as a result of regulatory policy granting exclusive rights to specific entities to operate.

In particular, the terms of the subsidy do not regulate the "free market price" of the formula pricing and the manufacturers and retailers are free to set their prices as they please, the only price terms set by the subsidy are the rebate issued to the government. I.E. the manufacturer is free to set its wholesale price to retailers, and retailers are free to set their retail price to consumers (and in fact data studies have shown that in most cases the contract brand ends up having a slightly higher retail price than the non-contract brands in each jurisdiction as a result of the increased demand volume vs available supply). What is fixed is the rebate rate the government receives relative to the wholesale price of the formula. So you can't even claim that its a de facto monopoly or that the subsidy creates an anti-competitive price advantage that favors the contract brand over others, because not only is that not the case but the unintended "free market" impact on price results in the opposite occuring, resulting in the contract brand becoming *less* competitive on price. What drives sales of it in spite of the higher price is that somethng like half of all formula sales are through the subsidy program and the other half heavily favors the same brand in spite of price as a result of doctors and hospitals recommending the contract brand as a matter of convenience - medical professionals can provide the contract brand to patients and new mothers, etc. and bill the gov't through the subsidy program, as a result they tend to almost exclusively stock and provide contract formulas regardless of whether or not the patient is covered by the subsidy. This results in product familiarity and the perception of the formula being perceived as safe or medically recommended, which helps drive further sales despite other products being cheaper. Some studies suggest that the fact that its more expensive actually further encourages this as parents tend to be protective of newborns and the price disparity vs the cheaper non-contract formulas gives the perception that the other brands are cheaper, less comprehensive, and less safe, etc. Anyway, point is - not a monopoly, not de facto, not de jure.

CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





chaos0xomega wrote:


Its not a state mandated monopoly, competitors are able to freely distribute and sell their product,

As I said, seems like just semantics now. Furthermore (I say w/o malice), your arguments on this specific point seem like cope tbh. Some of the players in the market are annointed with tax dollar subsidies. Might not be a monopoly in terms of semantics, but if that's the case, someone should alert these publications after they ctrl+F the articles for "Monop" (the most prominent sources on the first search page, I imagine there's many dozens more)

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/18/baby-formula-shortage-why-is-there-none-what-to-do-causes-explained
https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/baby-formula-shortage-milk-monopoly-fda/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/baby-formula-shortage-shows-risk-of-us-industry-concentration
https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099748064/baby-infant-formula-shortages
https://www.startribune.com/monopoly-and-protectionism-a-formula-for-hungry-babies/600175172/
   
Made in us
Shadowy Grot Kommittee Memba




The Great State of New Jersey

JWBS wrote:
chaos0xomega wrote:


Its not a state mandated monopoly, competitors are able to freely distribute and sell their product,

As I said, seems like just semantics now. Furthermore (I say w/o malice), your arguments on this specific point seem like cope tbh. Some of the players in the market are annointed with tax dollar subsidies. Might not be a monopoly in terms of semantics, but if that's the case, someone should alert these publications after they ctrl+F the articles for "Monop" (the most prominent sources on the first search page, I imagine there's many dozens more)


When you're having a discussion steeped in technical detail and are trying to identify a problem and/or propose solutions, "semantics" is not a valid dismissal of points being made, nor is reliance on colloquial (mis)use of technical terminology.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/may/18/baby-formula-shortage-why-is-there-none-what-to-do-causes-explained


"Some are calling for federal action to tackle the monopoly a handful of companies have on the formula market."

By definition not a monopoly, this is colloquial misuse of the term. A more accurate term to use here would be oligopoly, but even that is inaccurate because beyond the big 4 theres at least another dozen or so US based formula brands out there, possibly many more. Either way, point is there is not a single entity in control of the entire market, nor do the elite "big 4" with WIC contracts control it.

https://fortune.com/2022/05/14/baby-formula-shortage-milk-monopoly-fda/


"The baby formula market exists as a shared monopoly, with only a few manufacturers controlling nearly all supply."

Ditto. You especially cannot have a monopoly where one company only has 43% market share. By definition, a monopoly requires one entity to control an entire market, in this case one entity seems to not even control half.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-20/baby-formula-shortage-shows-risk-of-us-industry-concentration


A better article, it correctly assesses the level of market dominance the WIC contract grants in any given state, however its usage of the term monopoly is still inaccurate even at the state level. A better term would have been "virtual monopoly" in order to denote the advantage that the WIC contract holder has. If one formula brand had a 90% market share in California, then by definition they do not have a monopoly owing to the 10% market share controlled by their competitors. Even if we considered that a monopoly, the fact that the market dominance could flip almost overnight due to factors completely out of their control makes it a very weak monopoly.

https://www.npr.org/2022/05/19/1099748064/baby-infant-formula-shortages


The article is more technically oriented. "The USDA's own research found that whichever company gets the WIC contract in a state enjoys a powerful market advantage there, with a monopoly over WIC sales and "spillover" effects in the non-WIC market as well.

This is accurate. The holder of a WIC contract in a given jurisdiction does have a monopoly - on sales to a specific subset of consumers. They do not have a true monopoly over the entire baby formula market - not at the local/state level, certainly not federally.

https://www.startribune.com/monopoly-and-protectionism-a-formula-for-hungry-babies/600175172/


Disappointing article - inaccurate colloquial usage abounds not just in terms of monopoly but also of monopsony.

Even in colloquial usage these arguments largely fall flat. Key characteristics of monopoly are absence of viable alternatives or substitute goods (not present here, the viable products exist on every stores shelves, consumers choose not to buy them, even though those products may have been viable just a short period before when they had the WIC contract, even though consumers just a mile away in another state with a different WIC contract may be buying that very same viable alternative product in preference over the one that consumers in the first state turn their noses up at - you can't blame government or industry for the irrationality of consumers), lack of competition (also not true, not only are the alternative products usually cheaper despite being as good as or better than in terms of quality, but the competition for the WIC contracts is intense when it comes up for renewal on a 3-4 cycle), and artificially high prices resulting from the power of the producer to set their own rates in a vacuum (likewise not present here, not only are the competitor products typically cheaper, but the high price of the WIC product is the result of *retailers* setting the price in response to product demand rather than the price being dictated by the producer). Its hard to argue monopoly when none of the hallmarks of a monopoly are there.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/26 00:42:22


CoALabaer wrote:
Wargamers hate two things: the state of the game and change.
 
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





Again, lot of text poitning to the (accepted, acknowledged) fact that the state of affairs is not, speaking in the strictest semantic terms a monopoly, but not addressing the fact that it's an effective monopoly (you've even said yourself that the unsibsidised competitors can sell at a lower price and the subsidised brands are just gouging based on their position in an uncompetetive market where the state mandates that their product be subsidised, then buys their product). inb4 "technically not gouging". But anyway I'm going to concede the point here. Yes, not a monopoly, in fact probably a pretty good system, no problems detected, no war in Ba Sing Se etc etc.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2022/05/26 12:06:36


 
   
Made in us
Humming Great Unclean One of Nurgle






As an outside reader it seems like a classic case of internet discussion; Chaos knows what he is talking about and JWBS is putting up deflections to avoid admitting he was wrong.

The perpetual irony that we respect those who admit when they are wrong but stop at nothing to avoid doing so ourselves.

Road to Renown! It's like classic Path to Glory, but repaired, remastered, expanded! https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/778170.page

I chose an avatar I feel best represents the quality of my post history.

I try to view Warhammer as more of a toolbox with examples than fully complete games. 
   
Made in gb
Stealthy Warhound Titan Princeps





Wrong about what?
   
Made in ca
Dipping With Wood Stain






Let’s get back on topic;

So I saw the new Underworlds box at the LGS.
It’s almost double what I paid for Nightvault a few years ago. I paid $75 for the boxed set and $35 per warband.
$140 for the new boxed set, and new warbands are up to $55 each. The price of these sets is up nearly 100% in less than 5 years?!
Now *that’s* rampant inflation.

And Kickstarter games are getting to be unaffordable when it’s over $200 for a single base game with shipping.
Either I’m old or I’m really feeling like I’m getting priced right out of the market.

At least Marvel Crisis Protocol is still as expensive as ever.

This message was edited 2 times. Last update was at 2022/05/26 22:54:30


 
   
Made in us
Legendary Master of the Chapter





SoCal

Has your take hone pay increased by 200% in the last 5 years?

Then yeah, you’re being priced out.

   
 
Forum Index » Off-Topic Forum
Go to: