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I am interested in if the Rom-Com and Mid-tier flick can make a comeback? There have been a few lately in the theatre, and I have been doing my best to throw money at them so we can move away from Big Tentpole movies. These mid-budget movies are the seed corn we need to make sure that the "movies" do not stagnate the way blockbusters have.

That means movies like Rembraces of Him, You, Me and Tuscany, The Sheep Detectives and other non-horror flicks in the mid-tier range. Horror manages to thrive at lower budgets for both good and ill and there is a base for them all ready.

The Sheep Detectives is holding very well. It didn’t have the biggest opening, but it’s making $1M per weekday how many weeks in?


Of course Horror is the real story this week. Obsession made $5.5M on its second Tuesday, $1M less than Grogu on its first Tuesday. This weekend could either see Backrooms clash with Obsession or see them join forces to become Backsession. There’s a very good chance Backrooms hits #1 and puts Grogu into the #2 slot this weekend.

Has anyone heard anything about Breadwinner? The only buzz I’ve heard is from my mother, who makes it sound like a Boomer-bait crash-and-burn flop.

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
Has anyone heard anything about Breadwinner? The only buzz I’ve heard is from my mother, who makes it sound like a Boomer-bait crash-and-burn flop.

I'm going to check it out.

I follow and listen to a ton of dark comedy(see pretty much the entire dais of the Kevin Hart Roast) and Nate Bargatze is good friends with all of them, but still manages to do consistently clean sets. Saw him in DC a few months back and I'm a big fan. Probably be a gak movie, but I want to support it.

Bargatze is way to talented for The Breadwinner.... as least from what the trailer showed me.

The trailer makes me viscerally angry. There might be some well-crafted slapstick, but the premise of the film feels ugly, outdated and insulting.

Trailers have been wrong before, though.

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
The trailer makes me viscerally angry. There might be some well-crafted slapstick, but the premise of the film feels ugly, outdated and insulting.

Trailers have been wrong before, though.

I kept thinking..... Michael Keaton did it better in the 80's.

In Box Office terms, these are interesting times.

So, Obsession had a phenomenal hold from Tuesday to Wednesday, something like a single digit percentage drop. This made it the number 1 movie on Wednesday and indicates that it might have another incredible weekend.

The flip side to this—and Mad Doc Grotsnik, this brings me no joy as I also wanted Mando to succeed—is that Grogu fell out of the number 1 spot after 5 days. Not even a full week. In comparison, Solo was number 1 for 14 days.

While I don’t think this is really devastating to the Star Wars brand as it appears, it’s not a good look to lose the number 1 spot to a $750,000 budget horror movie in its second week. This is going to be the point of discussion on the future of Star Wars until Starfighter comes out.

It is annoying. But, it wouldn’t be the first film to underperform at the box office, only to find its audience later.

Read an article about how Mandalorian and Grogu might not break even, given how tepid global box office has been toward the movie, and some heavy hitters are waiting on deck:

As we have reported before, one of the strengths for The Mandalorian & Grogu is its lower budget of $165 million, which comes after the film earned millions in tax credits for primarily filming in California. The typical blockbuster needs to make 2.5 times its production budget to break even at the box office, which would mean that it would have to make $412 million to turn a profit, which wouldn’t be difficult for the movie to achieve. However, The Hollywood Reporter has revealed that this threshold is actually higher, noting that “those close to Disney’s decision-making confirm the Jon Favreau film needs to make $500 to $600 million globally to land in the black.”

It’s only going to get worse, as He-Man, Disclosure Day, Toy Story 5(!?) and Super Girl are all weeks away. The first and last are unknowns, but Spielberg seems to always deliver and the two previous Toy Story movies were each $1billion money makers.

Seeing Masters of the Universe getting decent praise, though that could be “bought and paid for shills, I wonder how it will do at the box office. It drops June 5. I can’t decide if think it’ll be a surprise hit, or monumental bomb.

Further out, I feel like Supergirl is going to bomb hard, even before the lead actress had a Rachel Zegler-esque moment in a recent interview.

Disclosure Day is also getting free hype from the White House oddly enough, given the recent and continuous release of UFO footage.

You're forgetting Backrooms which has also apparently been packing out theatres.

 Inquisitor Gideon wrote:
You're forgetting Backrooms which has also apparently been packing out theatres.

Oh snap, you’re correct:

EXCLUSIVE: There’s a lot of cash getting stuffed in those Backrooms. The A24 Kane Parsons feature take of his digital IP is racking up $9M in previews which began at 4PM.

We told you presales were at a crazy blockbuster level, around Scream 7‘s. Well, guess what? The previews here for Backrooms are ahead of Scream 7‘s $7.8M, as well as John Wick: Chapter 4 ($8.9M) and not far from Eternals ($9.5M) and Five Night’s at Freddy’s ($10.3M); the latter another fervent fan-driven property. The opening range for those movies are between $63.6M and $80M, and many distribution sources are now giddy that this R-rated genre movie will easily blow past its most recent forecast of $40M-$45M. Again, it’s all about how front-loaded this is. As of tracking this AM, Backrooms was hot with men and women under 25 and not far from the first choice for Final Destination: Bloodlines ($51.6M opening).

For some reason, people are drawn to horror right now, and that might be what hurts these other efforts.

I think it's more that the horror movies coming out right now are showing as extremely good films and people are starved for good films at the moment.

It probably, more than anything has to do with being the genre that's most courting the next generation of filmgoers instead of pushing the nostalgia of their parents. Backrooms is very much a product of the internet with that same "made by us" energy you get when a film is made by a new generation instead of by people making something they think will appeal to a new generation. Horror has always been the go to genre for that sort of thing since it tends to be cheaper to make and boundary pushing by design.

Horror is often very creative, because it’s such a wide genre.

I mean, my beloved Slasher Horrors are nothing like my equally beloved Folk Horrors. Hellraiser is again a favourite and different still.

They might be well regarded because they trigger deep unease, or offer buckets of gore, or cause existential dread.

They’re also typically low budget, so even a modest hit is turning a respectable profit. Only rarely the megabucks of a Blockbuster, that’s true. But for a small, horror dedicate studio? It can make its owners a very comfortable living.

I guess they also benefit from a very dedicated fan base. I wasn’t intending on checking out Backrooms, because I found the meme thing very boring. But? It’s getting positive word of mouth which is enough for me to reconsider.

There has been a solid run of originals in recent times. Weapons and Bring Her Back are both excellent movies, and quite unlike anything that came before.

 LunarSol wrote:
It probably, more than anything has to do with being the genre that's most courting the next generation of filmgoers instead of pushing the nostalgia of their parents. Backrooms is very much a product of the internet with that same "made by us" energy you get when a film is made by a new generation instead of by people making something they think will appeal to a new generation. Horror has always been the go to genre for that sort of thing since it tends to be cheaper to make and boundary pushing by design.

I am familiar with those other arguments, but this is an interesting take that makes a ton of sense to me.

I went and saw Obsession and The Drama and the audience was mostly young college age and HS folks in both those flicks. In addition, they seemed to resonate in their style and approach with those audiences. It was also clear to me that I was not the target audience for both of these films as I could intellectually relate to the characers, mannerisms, and speech patterns. Meanwhile, those around me seemed to feel it more viscerally and authentically than this old guy. They had dealt with these passive Chuds everyday.

There is also an argument that success in the Horror genre is a recession or economic malaise indicator.

Horror also retains its shock value, and so remains kind of an act of rebellion and test of relative maturity for younger folk.

Not major ones, no. But I doubt that since the dawn of accessible home media there haven’t been teens gathering to watch scary movies. Or indeed since the dawn of horror, sneaking in to age inappropriate flicks. So there’s an ongoing appeal there other genres lack.

This last weekend will be the stuff of box office legends.

First of all, Backrooms opened huge, just under Mando and just over Project Hail Mary for an opening weekend. This is the second “cultural event” movie for Gen Z in a month. Its Monday hold was surprisingly high, so it may even have a good second weekend despite its divisive ending.

Second, Obsession increased again, even over a holiday weekend, making it one of like five movies to increase its box office two weekends in a row (outside of Christmas/NY holiday season). It also came in second in the box office and passed $100M domestic, making something like 12 times its budget back. With another phenomenal Monday, it does not look to be slowing down. Even direct competition from another horror film for the younglings didn’t hurt it. Backsessions actually happened.


Mandalorian and Grogu fell pretty hard. 3rd place in its second weekend of release has to hurt, even if it is less a Star Wars movie than a TV Series The Movie. This has got to be causing a storm of internal angry phone calls at Disney. Michael is about to pass Mando in daily takings. It’s that bad.

Wow, if Michael beats Mando..... that has been out even longer.

Just wait until Masters of the Universe comes out. If it ends up actually doing well enough to actually outperform Mando too, we might have to put poor MDG on suicide watch since that means one of Jared Leto's cinematic universe movies has done better than a SW film.

Perhaps the days of Nerd-driven (or Nerdsploitation) movies are over if Mando and Masters both do not do that well.

Nah. I’ll be fine.

I mean…Adam Sandler, Jack Whit[skip to the end]ie Redmayne and many many many others have frankly inexplicably successful careers.

What’s interesting about Mando is that it, going off Wikipedia, exceeded initial expectations. Not by much, I’m not claiming “therefore it am hit actually”. But for an expected opening of $82m, projections were increased to $91-$96m, and it went on to do $98m. And globally? It’s currently sitting on $246.9m at the time of typing, again using the same source.

Not gangbusters. Probably not even blockbuster. But, against a $165m budget? I’m not sure it’s in bomb territory either. And I think this is salient? Is the 7th biggest box office of 2026 thus far. That last bit I feel brings some interesting and essential context.

Now. Who set those expectations, I genuinely and honestly do not know. Is that a studio thing? Or is it industry pundits? I’ve no doubt the answer is out there, I just don’t know what it is.

I’d like to see it continue to make money, because it is a genuinely entertaining film with a pretty broad appeal.

In terms of relative success? I guess that depends. It’s low for a Star Wars movie. Really low.

But for Disney? Box Office isn’t the main thing. Whether you’re making it for The Big Screen or Streaming, you’re still investing a hefty chunk due to costumes, sets and SFX when you’re doing Star Wars. And honestly? A $165m budget is really quite restrained. Not adjusting for inflation? It’s less than half Solo’s budget.

Disney also stands to rake in more from 1) People subscribing or resubscribing to D+ as a result of enjoying M&G and far, far more from 2) Merch.

Oh god does Star Wars still kill it on Merch. It’s pretty much the origin point of now modern Movie Tie-in Cash-in.

Grogu sells merch. And I’m keeping an eye on the Black Series range for anything I may want to add to my own collection.

In short? Pretty Meh Box Office isn’t the whole of M&G’s financial story. So I personally very much doubt any heads are about to roll. You’ve produced a very expensive Toy And Tie-In Advert which has been well received, with a good amount of people paying to watch said Toy and Tie-in Advert. The merch will sell. And from there your profits are derived.

There, there, Mad Doc. It could be worse. You could be rooting for The Breadwinner.

There are many ways to describe how bad The Breadwinner is doing, but my favorite is its per-theater average on its fourth day of release: $203. Not $203 thousand. The Breadwinner brought in two hundred and three dollars to every theater playing it. MandoGrogo is bringing in thousands. The horror hits, tens of thousands. The Breadinner is losing bread for every theater showing it.

 BobtheInquisitor wrote:
There, there, Mad Doc. It could be worse. You could be rooting for The Breadwinner.

There are many ways to describe how bad The Breadwinner is doing, but my favorite is its per-theater average on its fourth day of release: $203. Not $203 thousand. The Breadwinner brought in two hundred and three dollars to every theater playing it. MandoGrogo is bringing in thousands. The horror hits, tens of thousands. The Breadinner is losing bread for every theater showing it.

lol. Yeah, I had mentioned I was going to see it because I’m a Nate Bargatze fan, but reviews were rough.

 Grimskul wrote:
Just wait until Masters of the Universe comes out. If it ends up actually doing well enough to actually outperform Mando too, we might have to put poor MDG on suicide watch since that means one of Jared Leto's cinematic universe movies has done better than a SW film.

I don’t want to alarm anybody, but I’ e seen two reviews so far that called Jared Leto the best part of the movie. One reviewer described his performance as “DKR Bane impersonating 80’s Tim Curry”. I don’t even know what to do with that.

MOTU is getting decent but not great reviews. I think Jeremy Jahns said it rests halfway between Thor Ragnarok and Thor Love and Thunder. I don’t know what to do with that.

Tracking puts it in flop territory, though.

Masters of the Universe looks to be the best movie I will see in theaters until the new Godzilla comes out.

There's not like there's a bunch of big named franchise films coming out this year... except for some small budget Zendya pictures.

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
What’s interesting about Mando is that it, going off Wikipedia, exceeded initial expectations. Not by much, I’m not claiming “therefore it am hit actually”. But for an expected opening of $82m, projections were increased to $91-$96m, and it went on to do $98m. And globally? It’s currently sitting on $246.9m at the time of typing, again using the same source.

Not gangbusters. Probably not even blockbuster. But, against a $165m budget? I’m not sure it’s in bomb territory either.

It’s bombing, given its trajectory and the general Hollywood rule of needing 2.5 times the budget to profit. 165 x 3 =495. So until it hits near 500 million, you can call it a box office bomb.

And the $165million is disclosed production budget, it could truly be higher and also does not include marketing which is also unknown. I’ve seen it reported that marketing was $100-$130million. The Mando and Grog Super Bowl nostalgia bait ad cost as much or slightly more as Obsession and The Backrooms budgets combined!

Sources from reputable rags are saying the movie needs to hit $600million to get into profitable territory. It’s not even a half of the way there, going off those wiki numbers.

One thing that I will say is the media reaction to this ongoing flop is a breath of fresh air. At least from what I can see, there is no talk of “toxic fans”, “review bombing” or any other unsavory accusations/Culture War bs that are brought out when a major studio movie fails. It’s just a product very few people wanted and went to see and that’s how it’s being reported. To quote a popular Disney+ streaming show: ‘This is the Way’

And its odd. They had a formula where they could have made 200 episodes of Saturday western TV and streamed it forever. The actor could have done a few shots and a few weeks of voice work a year. Could have been the disney star trek equivalent.

Not M&G specifically, but I do wonder what the equivalent of “but it did really well on rentals” is these days?

I am of course aware that Prime gets movies up for rental and purchase really quickly, so there is some metric there. But, for any Disney fare? It’s only another month or two before it goes up on D+ without the extra premium.

So, to move further away from Disney specifically here? Let’s consider stone cold classics which choked at the box office, but made it big on VHS. For instance, John Carpenter’s The Thing.

Did horribly in the cinema, but is now rightfully considered a genuine classic and masterpiece. And has more than made its budget back thanks to home media.

Other examples, from a list on the Guardian?

1. Shawshank Redemption
2. Willy Wonka & The Chocolate Factor (1971)
3. Donnie Darko (even though I personally loathe it)
4. Blade Runner
5. Battlefield Earth (just kidding. That’s a solid turd)

And that’s just relatively modern ones. All failed to find an initial audience, and now beloved examples of the art. There’s lots of others which failed in the cinema, but came good on rentals, turning some kind of profit in the long run.

What’s the modern metric for that? I mean, coming back to D+ and M&G specifically? I’d imagine it doesn’t matter how many views it gets when it comes to streaming, if there’s no notable uptick in subscribers?

My first post in this whole thread is entirely about how much I hate box office scorekeeping. It's always been a wildly toxic way to look at an industry whose creativity thrives on mitigating risk through multiple ways to profit venues. It's wildly unhealthy and turns the industry into this winner takes all, trend chasing bloodbath that benefits no one. The industry needs people to see M&G and Obsession and Backrooms and MotU, not just the one that made the most money.