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Recent years have seen North American Retail sales of 40k be bested by X-Wing from Fantasy Flight Games.

Now, I'm not here to argue about what 40k sales would look like if we could include their online store or Europe (I just don't have those numbers). In any case, it remains true that X-Wing is a different genre from most tabletop wargames since it uses pre-painted minis of starships at a small scale.

One of the big bits of news from Gencon was Fantasy Flight Games' announcement of Star Wars Legion.



It features unpainted plastic minis in gaming scale for tabletop miniatures combat- it is very much the same genre as 40k (and Warmachine, Infinity, Dark Age etc). There's no doubt that the general Star Wars franchise has more power than 40k- in fact, there are few 40k fans who aren't also Star Wars fans, while the majority of SW fans haven't heard of 40k

Recently, 40k seems to have new life from the 8th edition. A lot of people are pleased with the new rules set, and are anxious to explore the setting some more.

So, the question- is it possible that 40k might be unseated from its top spot by SWL?

Can it? Yes. Will it? Probably not.

Short term, I can see this eclipsing 40K for a little while, but long term it looks like Legion is going to lack some of the aspects that will let hobbyists scratch their itch off the tabletop, and I'm no sure that you're traditional board gamer is of the mindset that they'll keep buying into the same game for years and years and are more likely to pick up the new next big thing.

Then we look at FFG who don't have a great record for long term support of their titles. While pump and dump would be an unfair term to use, they undoubtedly seem to have life cycles with their games. There's always a first time, but SW, while seemingly possessed of endless appeal, is somewhat limited in its diversity. You can see it in X Wing now, where the majority of new ships are obscure pulls from the depths of the lore and they seem to also be struggling to find rules niches for the new ships too (with new mechanics being introduced constantly to justify their in game inclusion) and I say this as a fan of the game.

As such, I can see Legion doing well in the short term, but I think 40K has the reserves to outlast it, and there's always the possibility of non-war gamers being pulled in by Legion and switching to 40K down the road, if GW continues to work on the accessibility of their product then they could ultimately benefit from Legion.

Fantasy Flight Games has been solid for quite a while now. Lets see if they can make this game impact the local comic shops, book stores, and small shops that wouldn't normally carry wargames.

These minis look terrible. Nearly Heroxlic / Mage Knight tier

X-Wing outstripped 40k. This game could do the same.

1. Legion will be cheaper to get into than 40k... the core set is $90 and comes with ~400 points each of two different armies. A standard sized army is 800 points. Find a friend to swap with and you can each get full sized armies for $90.

2. Legion will require less hobby skill... the models need to be assembled, but will only be a couple of pieces each. It'll probably take roughly 30 minutes to fully assemble your core set. It took about that long for Runewars.

3. Legion will probably not require painting for competitive events... the Runewars tournament rules don't require painting. No reason to expect Legion will.

4. Legion will have a standardized and well supported organized play scene... FFG is known for having very tight tournament rules with no real ambiguity. They also put out multiple Organized Play kits with prizes throughout the year for most of their games.

5. Legion has Stormtroopers. My mom knows what a Stormtrooper is. She doesn't know who Marneus Calgar is.

Legion has a lot going for it. 40k is a kind of a mess that a lot of us are tied to. 40k is sort of like my World of Warcraft subscription. I have so much time invested in it that I can't bring myself to cancel it. I really only play it once every couple of months for about 10 minutes. 40k is like that. I love it and don't want to 'cancel' it, but I also only play once in a blue moon. I play Star Wars Armada every week. I could see playing Legion every week.

I think Azreal13 nailed it... Legion will be just another flash in the pan.

I'm hoping FFG makes good on Legend of the Five Rings LCG. L5R rivaled MtG back in the day before a series of unfortunate events. I would love to see it rise from the ashes.

 Stevefamine wrote:
Fantasy Flight Games has been solid for quite a while now. Lets see if they can make this game impact the local comic shops, book stores, and small shops that wouldn't normally carry wargames.

These minis look terrible. Nearly Heroxlic / Mage Knight tier

I saw them up close and personal at Gencon. They're not even remotely close to Heroclix/Mage Knight tier. They're well detailed models. They look a lot better than some of the models GW has for sale right now.

 Kriswall wrote:
X-Wing outstripped 40k. This game could do the same.

It's important to note the timing. X Wing overtook 40K when 40K was at its lowest ebb, possibly in its entire history, almost certainly in the 21st century.

GW is much transformed since then financially, and a much tougher prospect to duplicate the same outcome. As I said, I've no doubt it'll explode, and quite possibly outstrip 40K, my concern is for the "legs" and how it'll look 2 years or so down the line.

 Azreal13 wrote:

 Kriswall wrote:
X-Wing outstripped 40k. This game could do the same.

It's important to note the timing. X Wing overtook 40K when 40K was at its lowest ebb, possibly in its entire history, almost certainly in the 21st century.

GW is much transformed since then financially, and a much tougher prospect to duplicate the same outcome. As I said, I've no doubt it'll explode, and quite possibly outstrip 40K, my concern is for the "legs" and how it'll look 2 years or so down the line.

X-Wing may have overtaken 40k when 40k was at a low... but it's still above 40k and 40k is selling better now. Ultimately, time will tell. I won't be at all surprised if Legion turns out to be successful. It has a lot going for it that 40k doesn't currently have.

Yeah, I think that's a matter of perspective. Speaking as someone who's primary game has been a FFG for the last 2-3 years in X Wing, I'm really not that excited for more templates, proprietary dice and tokens. Most FFG games are plagued by a fundamental sameness that kinda makes it hard, for me at least, to get excited for a new game.

Plus the whole "X Wing is selling more than 40K" comes from the Schrodingers financial report that is ICV2, that doesn't include GW direct sales neither does it quantify the difference, to my knowledge. It shouldn't be dismissed, but it shouldn't be taken as utterly precise either.

You'd also have to quantify "successful." That it'll generate cash by the bucketload in the first instance is likely beyond doubt just from starter sales, but what may qualify as a success for FFG won't necessarily mean it does so for me personally or other gamers.

In short? No.

Star Wars is a licensed game. And that brings with it inherent limitations to what the publisher can actually do.

For instance? Factions. Right now, Legion has the grand total of....erm.....two. 40k? Counting all Space Marines as one? Marines, CSM, Necrons, Craftworld Eldar, Dark Eldar, Mechancus, Astra Militarum, Inquisition/SoB, Tyranids, Orks. All of which offer their own play style.

FFG/The Star Wars licence just doesn't have the same scope. And we're already seeing that bite in X-Wing. Now don't get me wrong, X-Wng is an excellent game. The mechanics behind are absolutely superb. But each new wave brings a new gimmick - and due to the design of the game, they're rapidly running out of wiggle room to introduce those without invalidating earlier ships (which they manage anyway if only to sell a new, expensive ship or expansion).

Legion may very well be ace as a game. But as much of a Star Wars nut as I am, I need to see waaaaay more than the current somewhat lack lustre offerings.

I take the opposite approach to this topic. being both a massive fan of Star Wars and 40k I am not at all interested in this game. I dont think anyone in my group will be either. If the minis came assembled and painted that would be a different story but the prospect of having to build and paint another whole army and having to find another group to play with after you're so invested in 40k seems daunting. To each their own I guess!

If they make a Rancor I will probably buy it

This all hinges on Disney's ability to keep Star Wars interesting and fresh. Franchise fatigue, if the next few films prove mediocre, could severely limit what a cash printing machine this game could easily be.

I am not a fan of FFGs design style as CCGs with Minis, BUT I will probably pick up this game (and some expansions) for the minis which I will then use in other rules such as Tomorrow's War, Rogue Planet, SpacePort Scum, Rogue Stars, and Rampant Stars.

However, I see this being available in places where GW is not. Places like Target, Toys R Us, Barnes and Noble, etc. I am thinking more of Lord of the Rings, and less 40K.

I can see why GW did not want FFG doing 40K RPG anymore. Too much of a competitor now.

We can't tell if X-wing has actually outstripped 40K

it has by the metric of the USA centric Icv2 survey but since its not clear whether all GW sales are counted (Independent, independent + GW stores or independent + GW stores + GW web sales) it's very hard to know if this is the real picture

(although the survey is very useful in telling us 40K and GW have slipped significantly since x-wing launched)

and I very much doubt if Legion is going to generate £19 million+ profit next year (assuming 40K is only half of GWs profits and i'm sure that's an underestimate), fi only because it's a licenced property and Disney is going to be sucking off a considerable amount of cash each year, and my guess is it's on a sliding scale with a minimum payment however sales go, but extra if it does really well)

This game looks amazing, but looks are kind of deceiving (speaking as someone who actually saw it at GenCon).

The minis are a considerably larger scale than 40K. That's not too big of a deal, unless you really wanted a Darth Vader/Marneus Calgar match, but it means that scenery that is compatible with 40K and almost all the other games out there is going to look a little small for this game.

Which wouldn't be a problem, if all the scenery (well, almost all--the little triangular barricades do seem to be part of the set) you see in this set wasn't custom stuff made specially for the photos and the demos.

So I think you are going to have a lot of interest, but I don't know how much of that interest will translate into actual sales when people realize they have to assemble and paint the minis, and also construct (or find elsewhere) scenery for the game--scenery which might not be useful for other, similar games.

I don't think it's going to compare well to X-Wing at all, as X-Wing is extremely accessible for the non-hobbyist, and the games you can play look just like the ones that are demoed (if you buy a starfield mat).

I see this playing out a bit like Lord of the Rings SBG has. There will be an initial spike which will eclipse 40k (When GW release the Knights of Dol Amroth back around 2005 or whenever, they were the best selling models in their range, bigger than anything from 40k, for that period. They sold more Uruk-hai than the population of .... oh I forget now, but it was some medium sized country!), then gradually over time, the restrictions of the IP will limit new releases to a trickle and first sales and then interest will tail away leaving a much lower level of sales/interest which probably is sustainable, but at a lot lower level than 40k.
X-wing shows the signs of that tailing off right now I believe.

Star Wars is a bigger franchise than LotR of course, so it'll be interesting to watch. I've got zero interest in the IP though, so I'm purely an observer.

I feel this might sell well ONLY if they can capitalise on the fan base of star wars. They might draw in people who don't know Wargaming, and might give it a shot due to this.

 odinsgrandson wrote:
Recent years have seen North American Retail sales of 40k be bested by X-Wing from Fantasy Flight Games.

Now, I'm not here to argue about what 40k sales would look like if we could include their online store or Europe (I just don't have those numbers). In any case, it remains true that X-Wing is a different genre from most tabletop wargames since it uses pre-painted minis of starships at a small scale.

One of the big bits of news from Gencon was Fantasy Flight Games' announcement of Star Wars Legion.



It features unpainted plastic minis in gaming scale for tabletop miniatures combat- it is very much the same genre as 40k (and Warmachine, Infinity, Dark Age etc). There's no doubt that the general Star Wars franchise has more power than 40k- in fact, there are few 40k fans who aren't also Star Wars fans, while the majority of SW fans haven't heard of 40k

Recently, 40k seems to have new life from the 8th edition. A lot of people are pleased with the new rules set, and are anxious to explore the setting some more.

So, the question- is it possible that 40k might be unseated from its top spot by SWL?

It could have, until I saw the words "movement tool", "Specialty Dice", and "Upgrade Cards".

The moment FFG decided that tape measures, normal dice, and regular old army books were too normal was the moment they decided that they didn't feel like beating 40k at all.

If you think it will be the 40k killer then you have no idea just how stuck in their ways many grognards are. Heck I'm 25 and even I took one look at that and immediately groaned. I loved X-Wing but after some 10 waves or so playing the game is a chore, I swear I have to lug around more for my X-Wing stuff than my IG infantry horde unless I build a specific list before I go into the store. It will also be hell for tournament play if it works the same way as X-Wing because you will need the physical cards for every upgrade. Basically imagine fielding a 40k army except instead of needing your index/codex, you instead need to carry around cards for all your units and upgrades (imagine needing a card for every unit packing a plasma gun, that's what I'm worried about here). Yeah it's fun in skirmish with a couple squads per side, but if they want to go any higher it will be hell.

This is to say nothing of FFG's insistence on selling balance patches in future blisters, meaning that after a year or so our average stormtroopers and rebel troopers will be garbage forcing you to buy the "Imperial Janitor" expansion so you can upgrade your regular old stormtroopers. If FFG makes the same screw ups they made with X-Wing, we'll see lists that look nothing like a proper star wars army any more. Think about X-Wing, how often do you see a T-65 X-Wing that isn't Biggs? Granted 40k has many of these same issues, especially in the past, I'm just pointing out that if it turns out that your average troopers on both sides are obsolete within a few waves then it is essentially no better than 40k.

I'll probably buy a box if I have some free cash just to paint (aka pile it away in the to do pile like some sort of plastic addicted squirrel) but I'm not very optimistic that this game will be much of a 40k killer at all.

But hey, I've been wrong before. Maybe I'll get proven wrong. I really hope I don't, I find proprietary dice, movement tools, cards, etc. incredibly annoying and I really would not like to see FFG set a sort of precedent for those in wargaming if the game does very well. It means you need all new gaming supplies, which means inevitably 2-3 starter sets because they never give you enough stuff in a single box.

For balance?

Aside from the constant requirement to upgrade, many of X-Wing's fault lie with the players.

As a narrative game, it's pretty excellent. And that means one can field whichever ships look the coolest (so, not the HWK. Ever. Because it looks ponk), just for the fun of the game.

But the whole 'only ever Biggs' is down to people taking it very seriously. And fair enough. Not my bag, but it's their bag - and long may they enjoy their chosen hobby in their chosen manner.

As I mentioned above, I don't think any ships in X-Wing have been made obsolete just yet - but there's definitely favoured combos, all made worse by the latest gimmick ship. How sustainable that is, only time will tell. The game is young yet!

But the whole 'only ever Biggs' is down to people taking it very seriously. And fair enough. Not my bag, but it's their bag - and long may they enjoy their chosen hobby in their chosen manner.

Except by seriously, you mean people playing to win?

Can you define 'playing to win' a bit better?

I play every game I partake in with the intention of being the victor. Doesn't mean I feel particularly compelled to only take the latest netlist?

The difference is whether force creation is part of the effort to win. For some people it is - in which case they don't field T-65 X-Wings and whatever else is sub-optimal. For some (i.e. you and I) it's not - I choose a force based on what I think is cool and/or the setting (i.e. X-Wings in pairs or triplets) and then play to the best of my ability with that force.

Will this outsell 40k? Well, it won't appeal to the converters or painters - part of the appeal of a "bespoke" setting is you're free to build, convert and paint the models however you want. I suppose you can do that with Stormtroopers, but painting them red and gold isn't nearly so acceptable in the "community".

The thing is, my group are all big Star Wars fans, and no-one is looking to get into this. At best, we might pick up a starter set (depending on price) to use the models for Blasters and Bulkheads. Any future purchases are unlikely, because the cost of the miniatures is inflated by the ancillary game materials and the awkward packaging.

 Kriswall wrote:

 Stevefamine wrote:
Fantasy Flight Games has been solid for quite a while now. Lets see if they can make this game impact the local comic shops, book stores, and small shops that wouldn't normally carry wargames.

These minis look terrible. Nearly Heroxlic / Mage Knight tier

I saw them up close and personal at Gencon. They're not even remotely close to Heroclix/Mage Knight tier. They're well detailed models. They look a lot better than some of the models GW has for sale right now.

as did I see them at Gencon...

On par with the old Ral Partha metal minis or some of the better scultps of Mageknight without the goopy paint.


I am curious to see how their multi-part kits are for the walkers, droids, and different troops in the expansion sets. Also curious on how they handle the fluff in futurue expansions similar to X Wing's new content units

They really should have gone the pre-painted route with these, and then it would be a potential 40K killer.

I think FFG will have to put a lot more resources behind this to compete with 40K long term. I'd like to see that happen, but it's a tall order.

 Kriswall wrote:

 Stevefamine wrote:
Fantasy Flight Games has been solid for quite a while now. Lets see if they can make this game impact the local comic shops, book stores, and small shops that wouldn't normally carry wargames.

These minis look terrible. Nearly Heroxlic / Mage Knight tier

I saw them up close and personal at Gencon. They're not even remotely close to Heroclix/Mage Knight tier. They're well detailed models. They look a lot better than some of the models GW has for sale right now.

Fantasy Flight do not have great painters. This makes their product look worse.

Games Workshop hires great painters- even if their studio paintjobs seldom represent their best work these days, they clearly know what they're doing.


Actually, the first thing that comes to mind was a conversation I had about painting Snow Troopers for Imperial Assault. I discussed how I would paint the whole mini in white, with shading etc, and then line the areas and my wife came over and said "No way. You would never pick a color scheme that is so boring."

One of the things 40k really has going for it is the sprawling night infinite universe (Age of Sigmar did this for Warhammer Fantasy). Essentially, no matter what color scheme you choose for your space marines or Eldar, it fits nicely into the established cannon.

Whereas, if you paint your Storm Troopers in Red/Blue/Green/Purple/Turquois/Brown/Gold you are clearly departing from the cannon. If you paint your centerpiece Darth Vader in anything that isn't black with black accents, then you're moving far outside of cannon. I think this game wont' satisfy the creative hobbyist that 40k does so well.

 odinsgrandson wrote:


Whereas, if you paint your Storm Troopers in Red/Blue/Green/Purple/Turquois/Brown/Gold you are clearly departing from the cannon. If you paint your centerpiece Darth Vader in anything that isn't black with black accents, then you're moving far outside of cannon. I think this game wont' satisfy the creative hobbyist that 40k does so well.

This. I have fully painted the Imperial Assault miniatures and while it's fun for a board game, having an "army" isn't attractive at all, at least for me. BUT, there are many WW II game enthusiasts and they also try to recreate the paint / camo schemes as best as they can, so there might be a good market (which I don't believe it, part of the X-wing success was the pre-painted minis).

With WW2 though, it's that drive for absolute historical accuracy that's the appeal. Be it specific medal colours on your Brigadier General, or replicating that sky camouflage used in Africa, that's a challenge in and of itself.

Star Wars, for all the things I love about it, has never really had depth in that particular area. Closest as the code cylinders and that on Imperial Officers, and knowing the Squad Leader's pauldron is orange.

 MrMoustaffa wrote:

It could have, until I saw the words "movement tool", "Specialty Dice", and "Upgrade Cards".

The moment FFG decided that tape measures, normal dice, and regular old army books were too normal was the moment they decided that they didn't feel like beating 40k at all.

If you think it will be the 40k killer then you have no idea just how stuck in their ways many grognards are. Heck I'm 25 and even I took one look at that and immediately groaned. I loved X-Wing but after some 10 waves or so playing the game is a chore, I swear I have to lug around more for my X-Wing stuff than my IG infantry horde unless I build a specific list before I go into the store. It will also be hell for tournament play if it works the same way as X-Wing because you will need the physical cards for every upgrade. Basically imagine fielding a 40k army except instead of needing your index/codex, you instead need to carry around cards for all your units and upgrades (imagine needing a card for every unit packing a plasma gun, that's what I'm worried about here). Yeah it's fun in skirmish with a couple squads per side, but if they want to go any higher it will be hell.

This is to say nothing of FFG's insistence on selling balance patches in future blisters, meaning that after a year or so our average stormtroopers and rebel troopers will be garbage forcing you to buy the "Imperial Janitor" expansion so you can upgrade your regular old stormtroopers. If FFG makes the same screw ups they made with X-Wing, we'll see lists that look nothing like a proper star wars army any more. Think about X-Wing, how often do you see a T-65 X-Wing that isn't Biggs? Granted 40k has many of these same issues, especially in the past, I'm just pointing out that if it turns out that your average troopers on both sides are obsolete within a few waves then it is essentially no better than 40k.

I'll probably buy a box if I have some free cash just to paint (aka pile it away in the to do pile like some sort of plastic addicted squirrel) but I'm not very optimistic that this game will be much of a 40k killer at all.

But hey, I've been wrong before. Maybe I'll get proven wrong. I really hope I don't, I find proprietary dice, movement tools, cards, etc. incredibly annoying and I really would not like to see FFG set a sort of precedent for those in wargaming if the game does very well. It means you need all new gaming supplies, which means inevitably 2-3 starter sets because they never give you enough stuff in a single box.

Wargames so far use very few custom dice (40k has had a few over the years- scatter dice, misfire dice and sustained fire dice). Games can get a following while using non-cubical dice (Infinity uses D20, for example). I'm not entirely certain why the more custom dice have been left to board games (where custom dice are very prominent- even Blood Bowl primarily uses custom dice).


Stat cards have become a standard for most wargames- starting with Confrontation, and even Age of Sigmar uses their version. I just don't see that being the death of any game- especially if we're comparing having a deck of stat cards to having a faction codex, sub faction codex and another 'dex and maybe a sub dex for your allies.


Ultimately, though, 40k and WFB haven't survived for most of their existence by appealing to Grognards. They've mostly gotten new gamers as teenage boys who quit or spend a lot less after five or ten years.

In recent years, they have been having a harder time picking up new gamers- probably because they have such steep entry costs vs a plethora of other games with nice miniatures, rules and lore- a lot of which are board games with minis rather than tabletop games. I think a lot of their current Board Game push is about GW picking up new gamers.


I think that if Star Wars: Legion picks up enough of the teenagers, then it could replace 40k as the standard. 40k would shrink a LOT if the players were all people moving on after getting sick of Legion.



Some of the other points can make this a less likely scenario (less varied universe, fewer creative hobby options, less diverse setting and FFG''s attitude towards game life cycles).

40k is a setting first (despite some attempts to go more in the story direction with the fluff advancement that I personally dislike) that was made to create cool minis.
Star Wars is a story first, setting second, that was made to create movie rather than miniatures.

I'm expecting the Star War miniature game to not last very long. Too soon the limited elements available from the movie, and at a scale compatible with the scale of the game, will just dry up.