Math Needed on Tyranid Hive guard vs Warroirs

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**shadowfinder**

I know hive guard are good for high toughness targets but don't have the volume of fire for hordes. Looking at warriors to maybe fill the hive guard roll. Wanted to know how close they where?

Nerothroupe with 6 Hive guard VS 9 warriors with 3 venom's compared with 6 hive guard for dealing with T6-8. targets.?

Prime will be with warriors for the plus one and ignore cover.

Anyone one good at math that can tell me the averages to hit and wound and saves. Between the two.

Looking at Kronos and Jorm. One for better saves and Ignore cover the other for rerolls.

**Arson Fire**

The math to work this out is very basic. It's just multiplying a few numbers. I'll do it this time though.

Both units are 288 points (assuming the warriors took boneswords, which is pretty much a given). Which simplifies things.

I'll assume the enemy has a 3+ save.

6 Hive Guard (with impaler cannons)
12 shots hitting on a 3+ = 8 hits.
Vs T6 or T7 they're wounding on a 3+ giving 5.33~ wounds.
Assuming a 3+ save with AP -2, that's 3.55~ unsaved.
D3 damage per unsaved wound averages to 7.11~ damage.

Against T6, T7 they average 7.11~ damage.
Against T8 they average 5.33~ damage.

With the Kronos re-roll 1's buff, you're starting with 9.33~ hits instead of 8 (because 12 / 6 = 2 dice get re-rolled. Then 2 * 2/3 = 1.33~ hits get added to the 8 hits from the first roll).
Vs T6, T7 they average 8.296~ damage
Vs T8 they average 6.22~ damage

Warriors (with a tyranid prime buffing their BS to 3+)
6 with deathspitters
3 with venom cannons

The deathspitter shots are the same vs T6, 7, and 8
12 hits
4 wounds
2 damage goes through.

Average of 6 venom cannon shots, which basically have the same profile as the hive guards impaler cannons. So just take the results from the hive guard and divide by 2.
Vs T6 and T7, 3.55~ damage.
Vs T8, 2.66~ damage.

Giving the warriors a total of 5.55~ damage vs T6, T7.
Giving the warriors a total of 4.66~ damage vs T8.

With the Kronos buff, the deathspitter hits increase from 12 to 14. The venom cannon you can still take the hive guards kronos results and divide by 2.
Giving the warriors a total of (2.33~ deathspitter + 4.148~ venom cannon) = 6.481~ damage against T6, T7.
Giving the warriors a total of (2.33~ deathspitter + 3.11~ venom cannon) = 5.44~ damage against T8.

In conclusion, when both units are fighting with all models in range, the hive guard are averaging 28% more damage in shooting vs T6/7 than the buffed warriors. Averaging 14% more damage vs T8.
The hive guard do have the range advantage, and they ignore line of sight. A pretty solid shooting unit.
The warriors can however fight in close combat, which the hive guard are worthless at.

**Niiai**

The math is really even if you go 18 warriors and 1 prime, and only count the venom cannon warriors vs the hive guards. You are obviusly not targeting the 13 heavy bolters at the same target.

Of course, range, vision and cover is not so good for the warriors.

**shadowfinder**

Spoiler:

Arson Fire wrote:
The math to work this out is very basic. It's just multiplying a few numbers. I'll do it this time though.

Both units are 288 points (assuming the warriors took boneswords, which is pretty much a given). Which simplifies things.

I'll assume the enemy has a 3+ save.

6 Hive Guard (with impaler cannons)
12 shots hitting on a 3+ = 8 hits.
Vs T6 or T7 they're wounding on a 3+ giving 5.33~ wounds.
Assuming a 3+ save with AP -2, that's 3.55~ unsaved.
D3 damage per unsaved wound averages to 7.11~ damage.

Against T6, T7 they average 7.11~ damage.
Against T8 they average 5.33~ damage.

With the Kronos re-roll 1's buff, you're starting with 9.33~ hits instead of 8 (because 12 / 6 = 2 dice get re-rolled. Then 2 * 2/3 = 1.33~ hits get added to the 8 hits from the first roll).
Vs T6, T7 they average 8.296~ damage
Vs T8 they average 6.22~ damage

Warriors (with a tyranid prime buffing their BS to 3+)
6 with deathspitters
3 with venom cannons

The deathspitter shots are the same vs T6, 7, and 8
12 hits
4 wounds
2 damage goes through.

Average of 6 venom cannon shots, which basically have the same profile as the hive guards impaler cannons. So just take the results from the hive guard and divide by 2.
Vs T6 and T7, 3.55~ damage.
Vs T8, 2.66~ damage.

Giving the warriors a total of 5.55~ damage vs T6, T7.
Giving the warriors a total of 4.66~ damage vs T8.

With the Kronos buff, the deathspitter hits increase from 12 to 14. The venom cannon you can still take the hive guards kronos results and divide by 2.
Giving the warriors a total of (2.33~ deathspitter + 4.148~ venom cannon) = 6.481~ damage against T6, T7.
Giving the warriors a total of (2.33~ deathspitter + 3.11~ venom cannon) = 5.44~ damage against T8.

In conclusion, when both units are fighting with all models in range, the hive guard are averaging 28% more damage in shooting vs T6/7 than the buffed warriors. Averaging 14% more damage vs T8.
The hive guard do have the range advantage, and they ignore line of sight. A pretty solid shooting unit.
The warriors can however fight in close combat, which the hive guard are worthless at.

Thank you for the math. I am new meds and math hurts my head. I was making it too complicated in my mind LOL.

Anyways the warrior unit start killing more at toughness 5 and lower because of the number of shots.
Plus as you said the can do close combat too.

I am looking for a strong backfield unit that can cover the middle of the battle field with shooting.

Hive guard are good but need a sitter and hate being in combat. Warriors don't have those draw backs.

Thanks for the math once again.

Automatically Appended Next Post:

Niiai wrote:
The math is really even if you go 18 warriors and 1 prime, and only count the venom cannon warriors vs the hive guards. You are obviusly not targeting the 13 heavy bolters at the same target.

Of course, range, vision and cover is not so good for the warriors.

Warriors have the advantage of OS, they can fight and have no issues with morale. They have decent movement with stratagems to take mid-field objectives. I have found them to be decent units.

Ideally i would have both units.