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Hey, what are the chances of going first if you have more drops? The opponent does get +1 to the roll but than there's a 1/6 steal the initiative chance.

Just off the top of my head:

You have a 32.5% chance of winning the roll off, then he has a 17.5% chance of stealing.
If you don't win the roll you have a 17.5% chance to steal soooooo.....

So chance of going first is about 28% if you win the roll, and about 11.25% if you loose the roll.


NOTE: no calculator was used in this math..........

Recalculated a bit.

It can't be 2/7 - too low.

There was a big thread on this, not sure where it went.

I think the maths end up being about 65% in favour of whoever has the +1. Totally from memory so could be wrong.

Seize the initiative (I have no idea why it still exists this edition) actually normalises the equation a bit, because the player without the +1 is more likely to get the chance to seize, so it affects their chances more often.

Ahh yeah I never factored in the steal for the guy not getting the +1 so its not right.

The initial roll is about 58% in favour of the player who got the +1, after seize the initiative it becomes basically 50/50.

The player with more drops has a 10/31 chance of winning the initial roll (5/36 result in rerolls). ~32.26%

Of the 21/31 times you lose, you have a 1/6th chance to seize. ~11.29%

Of the 10/31 times you win, you have a 1/6th chance to be seized on. ~5.38%

10/31*5/6 + 21/31*1/6 = 0.3226 - 0.538 + 0.1129 = 38.17%

~38-62, or a little better than 4/11 if you want it in fractions.

So, basically, you will still go first 4 out of 10 times. Which is 1.5 times lower than if you had fewer drops than your opponent. That's pretty significant.