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I am facing a 500 point army with my Tau, and the person intends to run multiple Carnifexes and a Hive Tyrant. What can I fit into my army to deal with all that?

I am thinking a ghost keel, and fire warriors with a cadre fire blade, and a commander with fusion blasters or Farsight.

What should I be bringing to counter high toughness, low model count at 500?

Honestly, not much if they're bringing a hive tyrant to a 500pt game. feth that person though and honestly I wouldn't play with them in the future.

Any idea as to what mission you will be playing? At best he can have 5-ish models on the table assuming least expensive load-outs so in an objective game it shouldn't be too hard to out score him.

As far as countering him goes, I'd probably just load up on fire warriors (breachers teams and strike teams) with missile turrets and the aforementioned fusion commander. Besides the scoring advantage, you also force him to split his efforts and should have enough rate of fire to force wounds through. The one pathfinder character might also be useful, as if I remember right he adds +1 to wound rolls which means all the small arms fire will only need a 4+ to wound.

Biggest thing to watch out for is Spore Cysts carapace upgrades on the Carnifexes. They impose a -1 to hit penalty for shooting which is a nuisance for Tau, though it will come at the cost of models.