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Some of the top lists have just been killed, or heavily nerfed.

- Dark talons and flyrants are more expensive and max of 3
- PBC lists have become max of 3 and their trees got a bit pricier
- Poxwalker farm / tide of traitor lists caught heavy nerfs
- Eldar reapers and psykers got points hikes. They still seem to be competitive choices though.
- BA have to wait til turn 2 to unleash 3D6 charging slamguinius models or 15-man death company squads

Even if there was some unintentional collateral damage along the way, GW has done a good job of beheading the competitive meta in my opinion. But what will rise up to take its place?

These are a few of my guesses at some of the new top lists

- Craftworlds, some reapers and psykers, but more shining spears and hemlocks. Maybe some drukhari allies
- Custodes jetbike armies with some token guard allies. Good before and a lot of their competitors got taken down.
- Gunline guard with token BA or custodes elements
- Death guard - daemon engines, daemon princes and obliterators with trees and either cultist or plaguebearer screens
- Tau - three coldstar fusion commanders with riptides, drones and some FW support
- Necrons (I don't have personal experience of these guys, but they sound like they got a decent codex. Perhaps some very boring tessaract vault centred lists or a mixed force featuring plenty of destroyers.
- Drukhari (similar, they sound like they have some lethal tools and crazy movement)
- More mixed nids, still usually featuring three flyrants.

My personal guess is craftworlds/aeldari at the top as the list to beat. I think it's a good sign that so many armies have a decent chance at being top dog though. What do you guys think will climb to the top of the new meta?

Depends on the game type.

Soups will continue being the order of the day. There is going to be a top tier Eldar, Imperial and Chaos army.

I don't know whether not being able to aggressively DS until turn 2 means the death of various bombs but it certainly reduces their effectiveness. People can say its just 1 turn - but that's an age. Especially if you are going second. Even going first will mean they have a turn to move out and deepen their screened area. More testing needed here - but a bomb has to be highly efficient if its going to justify doing absolutely nothing turn 1. Yes it can't be shot - but you can't quasi-null deploy now, so something is going to be on the table taking fire.

The meta is therefore likely to initially shift towards gunlines - although in tournaments at least, where there are perks for getting board control and objectives early - there may still be a need for a counter-punch or some units that can contest the centre.

Not sure on Tau. I think the soft stats are there, but its very easy to end up with a highly elite army (coldstar fusion commanders, riptides or ghostkeels, reasonable squads of marker drones etc) which is kind of counter-elite, but struggles to efficiently deal with hordes and risks dying to elite armies in turn. I think Eldar will be able to do much the same but be more reliable with psychic, ynnari, alaitoc etc.

Nothing in the Necron codex really excites me - but I have very little real experience playing against it so I could be missing something decisive. Its better than they were (kind of had to be) but nothing leaps out as something that will win games by itself.

The necron codex has some powerful units buy I think it's big week point is lack of mobility. Very upper mid tier I would say as objectives will be hard to contest early.
Tau had hope but are upper mid tier not top tier, too reliant on markerlights which are just way too easily removed and they don't have enough of an edge in the shooting phase to overcome 0 psykic and minimal assualt phase.
Right now I would suspect IG artillery screens and triple custard captains will be the imperial soup of the day.
Aldari just gained drukari and Y'narri is still a problem child GW can't balance.
Choas still has plenty of trick, but some of the bomb lists are probably toast.

Imperial Soup will still reign though I think more balamced Nids lists will occasionally pop up. Nids have one of the best internally balanced codexes out currently so the Rule Of 3 barely effects them since they have more than enough good options to fill requierments.

guard gunlines will probably appear a lot more.

I'm waiting to face 9 basilisks

I find it curious that everyone still seems to leave out Fire Warriors in their considerations about Tau and solely focus on (big) suits as always.

Seriously, FWs buffed by a Cadre Fireblade outshoot FRFSRF guardsmen point for point AFAIR, only at 3"-9" extra range, and that's without the really easy to get bonuses provided by even a single markerlight, a pulse accelerator drone, Ethereals (Ld 10 +FnP bubbles do matter if you got enough models... and also allows for bigger units, meaning less units to set up and higher first turn chances against other horde armies, and much better synergy with awesome buffs such as Darkstrider or the Vior'la 'fire twice' strat) and Darkstrider. And with the T'au sept they become a nightmare to charge when all those dudes start slinging their 5+ to hit dakka (and those photon grenade debuffs if you do make it into combat) at you. Or all of them effectively having a 3+ save (Dal'yth) when the other player goes first.

On the other hand I kinda fail to see the value in multiple Riptides. What actually makes Riptides so good is strategems: Branched Nova charge, Stimulants to keep up the BS and the occational repair protocol. The thing is you can only use those things on one riptide a turn, leading to massively diminishing returns the more you take. One is amazing, more seems like a point sink.

Y'vahras are cheesy strong but force you to build your entire list around them, especially if one takes two. And with tactical shield drone units now limited to 3 and large drone units downright melting to morale, as well as no longer being able to deepstrike next to the spot in the enemy deployment zone that the Y'vahra was going to move to, they got indirectly nerfed too. No more 50 shield drones you can simply spam and drop right next to them.

Max squad sizes for "good" units
Heavy Long range weapons in initial deployment (or lots of fast movers with medium weapons)
Heavy close-range drops on 2nd turn

Artillery gunlines and Imperial Soups will be the order of the day for most days going forward. Expect these games to be very static, as the rewards for playing aggressively are no longer really worth it. In addition to this, with no meaningful ways to control them, hordes will be as strong as ever, if not stronger. Their ability to control space only got better with no deep strikers on first turn allowing them to extend their bubbles deeper before threats can arrive.

We've now entered an awkward point in 8th edition where a few generally good changes have been doled out in a piecemeal fashion that has ended up leaving the game in a position that might having a negative impact.

What the game needs to see next (and the sooner, the better, in no particular order):

1. Implementation of morale (and nerfing of abilities that ignore or mitigate it) in a way that is not only not entirely worthless, but harms hordes disproportionately.

2. Implementation of actual anti-horde weapons and units. High attack counts don't cut it, they just hurt elite infantry and everything else more. Units need rules and wargear that speficially punishes high body counts and low value statlines.

3. Penalties for indirect fire.

4. Ways to mitigate damage on the first player turn.

 Ragnar Blackmane wrote:
Seriously, FWs buffed by a Cadre Fireblade outshoot FRFSRF guardsmen point for point AFAIR, only at 3"-9" extra range, and that's without the really easy to get bonuses provided by even a single markerlight, a pulse accelerator drone, Ethereals (Ld 10 +FnP bubbles do matter if you got enough models... and also allows for bigger units, meaning less units to set up and higher first turn chances against other horde armies, and much better synergy with awesome buffs such as Darkstrider or the Vior'la 'fire twice' strat) and Darkstrider. And with the T'au sept they become a nightmare to charge when all those dudes start slinging their 5+ to hit dakka (and those photon grenade debuffs if you do make it into combat) at you. Or all of them effectively having a 3+ save (Dal'yth) when the other player goes first.

This is untrue. Guardsman > Firewarriors, and all other troopers, pound for pound.

Guardsman - 4ppm
Range 24" Rapid Fire 1, S3, AP-0

Firewarrior - 7ppm
Range 30", Rapid Fire 1, S5, AP-0

17 Guardsman+1 Boltgun (Sergeant) = 68+1pts
10 Firewarriors = 70 points

17 Guardsman shooting at Firewarriors, Range24"
16 Lasgun shots; 16*.5*.5*.5 = 2 unsaved wounds
1 Boltgun shot; 1*.5*.666*.5 = 0.1665 unsaved wounds
TOTAL: 2.1665

10 Firewarriors shooting at Guardsman, Range30"
10 Pulse Rifle shots; 10*.5*.666*.666 = 2.21778 unsaved wounds
TOTAL: 2.21778

Unbuffed; Tau win outside of Rapid Fire range - but, the Guardsman have 17 wounds versus the Firewarriors 10; which is a massive deal in terms of durability, 58.8% more durable. The moment the shooting goes past one rounds worth, Guardsman>Firewarriors.

Let's talk buffs:
20 Guardsman(2 Boltguns)+1 Company Commander = 112pts
10 Firewarriors+1 Cadre Fireblade = 112pts

20 Guardsman(2 Boltguns)+1 Company Commander (issuing FRSRF x2) shooting at Firewarriors, Range12"
18*4 Lasgun shots: 72*.5*.5*.5 = 9 unsaved wounds
2 Boltgun shots: 2*.5*.5*.5 = .25 unsaved wouds
TOTAL: 9.25

10 Firewarriors+1 Cadre Fireblade, shooting at Guardsman, Range15"
1 Markerlight shot: 1*.8333 = ~1 hit
10*3 Pulse Rifle shots: 30*.5*.666*.666 = 6.65334 unsaved wounds
Rerolling the 1's adds... 15*(.333)*.5*.666*.666 = 1.10778111 unsaved wounds
TOTAL: 7.76112111

Buffed: It's not even close. Guardsman >>> Firewarriors, while having 21 wounds VS 11 wounds. - Speaking of the value of traits, Guardsman can get the same range as Firewarriors, unless the Firewarriors also take the +range trait. Firewarriors can get +1cover save, which brings down 18*4 Lasgun shots expected output to... 5.994, a significant reduction - but still not enough to win them a prolonged shootout; and they lose it if they move. If Guardsman don't have to move either, they could also take the re-roll 1's trait, which adds... 1.4985 unsaved wounds, for 18*4 Lasgun shots.

Guardsman do not deserve to be 4ppm under any circumstances; at least not with their statline, relative to the stats/prices of other factions armies. Adding in a 30PPM Company Commander brings a Guardsman squad up to 5.5PPM/7PPM (2/1 squads buffed by CompanyCommander); which sounds reasonable, but STILL blows out other factions troopers. 4pts = 1W, Sv5+, and 1/2/4 Lasgun shots.

Guardsman win the infantry war point for point, and back that up with an excessive number of Artillery/Tank units (up to 3x as many models as other factions, thanks to squadrons), all of which are competitive in their own right.

fe40k wrote:

 Ragnar Blackmane wrote:
Seriously, FWs buffed by a Cadre Fireblade outshoot FRFSRF guardsmen point for point AFAIR, only at 3"-9" extra range, and that's without the really easy to get bonuses provided by even a single markerlight, a pulse accelerator drone, Ethereals (Ld 10 +FnP bubbles do matter if you got enough models... and also allows for bigger units, meaning less units to set up and higher first turn chances against other horde armies, and much better synergy with awesome buffs such as Darkstrider or the Vior'la 'fire twice' strat) and Darkstrider. And with the T'au sept they become a nightmare to charge when all those dudes start slinging their 5+ to hit dakka (and those photon grenade debuffs if you do make it into combat) at you. Or all of them effectively having a 3+ save (Dal'yth) when the other player goes first.

This is untrue. Guardsman > Firewarriors, and all other troopers, pound for pound.

Guardsman - 4ppm
Range 24" Rapid Fire 1, S3, AP-0

Firewarrior - 7ppm
Range 30", Rapid Fire 1, S5, AP-0

17 Guardsman+1 Boltgun (Sergeant) = 68+1pts
10 Firewarriors = 70 points

17 Guardsman shooting at Firewarriors, Range24"
16 Lasgun shots; 16*.5*.5*.5 = 2 unsaved wounds
1 Boltgun shot; 1*.5*.666*.5 = 0.1665 unsaved wounds
TOTAL: 2.1665

10 Firewarriors shooting at Guardsman, Range30"
10 Pulse Rifle shots; 10*.5*.666*.666 = 2.21778 unsaved wounds
TOTAL: 2.21778

Unbuffed; Tau win outside of Rapid Fire range - but, the Guardsman have 17 wounds versus the Firewarriors 10; which is a massive deal in terms of durability, 58.8% more durable. The moment the shooting goes past one rounds worth, Guardsman>Firewarriors.

Let's talk buffs:
20 Guardsman(2 Boltguns)+1 Company Commander = 112pts
10 Firewarriors+1 Cadre Fireblade = 112pts

20 Guardsman(2 Boltguns)+1 Company Commander (issuing FRSRF x2) shooting at Firewarriors, Range12"
18*4 Lasgun shots: 72*.5*.5*.5 = 9 unsaved wounds
2 Boltgun shots: 2*.5*.5*.5 = .25 unsaved wouds
TOTAL: 9.25

10 Firewarriors+1 Cadre Fireblade, shooting at Guardsman, Range15"
1 Markerlight shot: 1*.8333 = ~1 hit
10*3 Pulse Rifle shots: 10*.5*.666*.666 = 6.65334 unsaved wounds
Rerolling the 1's adds... 5*(.333)*.5*.666*.666 = .277xxx unsaved wounds
TOTAL: 6.93034

Buffed: It's not even close. Guardsman >>> Firewarriors, while having 21 wounds VS 11 wounds. - Speaking of the value of traits, Guardsman can get the same range as Firewarriors, unless the Firewarriors also take the +range trait. Firewarriors can get +1cover save, which brings down 18*4 Lasgun shots expected output to... 5.994, a significant reduction - but still not enough to win them a prolonged shootout; and they lose it if they move. If Guardsman don't have to move either, they could also take the re-roll 1's trait, which adds... 1.4985 unsaved wounds, for 18*4 Lasgun shots.

Guardsman do not deserve to be 4ppm under any circumstances; at least not with their statline, relative to the stats/prices of other factions armies. Adding in a 30PPM Company Commander brings a Guardsman squad up to 5.5PPM/7PPM (2/1 squads buffed by CompanyCommander); which sounds reasonable, but STILL blows out other factions troopers. 4pts = 1W, Sv5+, and 1/2/4 Lasgun shots.

Guardsman win the infantry war point for point, and back that up with an excessive number of Artillery/Tank units (up to 3x as many models as other factions, thanks to squadrons), all of which are competitive in their own right.

Well sure, but now run the numbers against toughness 4 and 5. And compare the damage they deal with overwatch.

Let's talk buffs:
20 Guardsman(2 Boltguns)+1 Company Commander = 112pts
10 Firewarriors+1 Cadre Fireblade = 112pts
VS
MEQ; T4, Sv3+
5EQ (Custodes); T5, Sv2+

20 Guardsman(2 Boltguns)+1 Company Commander (issuing FRSRF x2) shooting at MEQ, Range12"
[I'm leaving the 2 Boltguns and 1 Laspistol out of the equations below; it's a lot more lines/calculations for what ultimately amounts to... a smaller bonus than what it's worth for this comparison.]
VS MEQ
R24": (18)*.5*.333*.333 = .998001
Cadia RR1's: (9)*(.333)*.5*.333*.333 = .1661671665
TOTAL: 1.1641681665
R12": (18*4)*.5*.333*.333 = 3.992004
Cadia RR1's: (36)*(.333)*.5*.333*.333 = .664668666
TOTAL: 4.656672666
VS 5EQ
R24": (18)*.5*.333*.166 = .497502
Cadia RR1's: (9)*(.333)*.5*.333*.166 = .082834083
TOTAL: .580336083
R12": (18*4)*.5*.333*.166 = 1.990008
Cadia RR1's: (36)*(.333)*.5*.333*.166 = .331336332
TOTAL: 2.321344332

10 Firewarriors+1 Cadre Fireblade, shooting at MEQ, Range15"
VS MEQ
R24": (10)*.5*.666*.333 = 1.10889
Markerlight RR1's: (5).(.333)*.5*.666*.333 = .184630185
TOTAL: 1.293520185
R12": (10*3)*.5*.666*.333 = 3.32667
Markerlight RR1's: (15)*(.333)*.5*.666*.333 = .553890555
TOTAL: 3.88056055
VS 5EQ
R24": (10)*.5*.5*.166 = .415
Markerlight RR1's: (5)*(.333)*.5*.5*.166 = .0690975
TOTAL: .4840975
R12": (10*3)*.5*.5*.166 = 1.245
Markerlight RR1's: (15)*(.333)*.5*.5*.166 = .2072925
TOTAL: 1.4522925

Short version: Don't underestimate sheer volume of fire - Lasguns generally tie or win out against your T5 and down targets; and when they get in Rapid Fire range (12"-15", 4 shots*4ppm > 3shots*7ppm [yes, they're missing the ppm of commanders and fireblades; if you made a brick of Firewarriors, you may be able to get the PPM to even out (since 1 Cadre Fireblade can buff a large number of units, while you need UNITS/2 in Company Commanders), if not get closer together after all calculations...]; and again, don't forget that the Guardsman have 21wounds to the Firewarriors 11wounds - and take up additional board space, which is a huge deal.

Firewarrior's S5 guns start to win out when you start shooting T6-T9 models; add in the +1 to wound rolls stratagem, and they can do real work.

I'll make an Overwatch post some time in the future, maybe; but with Firewarriors having 3shots VS 2//4shots (if IG interweave the 20Guardsman (2 squads), they get an additional set of overwatches), and potentially RR1's (not likely, but maybe they'll get a markerlight on a random target beforehand); it'll be close. I think interlocked IG squads will come out on top (40 shots vs 30 shots) by a little - if you add in other Firewarrior squads nearby, they'll come out ahead - but, that's even more points (albeit ones that the IG couldn't leverage even if they wanted to, unless they mix 3 infantry squads together... Mordian Doctrine ties with T'au Doctrine (hitting on 5+s), so... it's really a wash.

1 Guard CP Battery, 1 Renegades and Heretics CP Battery and then Guard. Anything else will be laughed off the board.

Guard having the best infantry, up to 3x as many tanks/artillery pieces on the board, and access to Imperium units to shore up weaknesses - they'll be a top dog, for sure.

Why are people still claiming soup is a thing? You cannot use Imperium as a keyword for a Battle-forged army anymore. Oh yes, it's a beta rule still. But so is the deepstrike change.

So claiming 1st turn deepstrike is dead but soup is alive is cherry-picking. Sure you can house-rule to use both, either, or neither of the beta rules, but nobody really knows which of the beta rules will be used in tournaments.

 Weazel wrote:
Why are people still claiming soup is a thing? You cannot use Imperium as a keyword for a Battle-forged army anymore. .

You can't use it within detachments. You can still do it within an army. So you can't use it if you want to plop Celestine in an Imperial Guard detachment. But if you want to take an IG Spearhead detachment then a Supreme Command detachment with Celestine amd two canonnesses thats fine.

The soup rule constrains inter-detachment soup, nothing else.

 Sim-Life wrote:

 Weazel wrote:
Why are people still claiming soup is a thing? You cannot use Imperium as a keyword for a Battle-forged army anymore. .

You can't use it within detachments. You can still do it within an army. So you can't use it if you want to plop Celestine in an Imperial Guard detachment. But if you want to take an IG Spearhead detachment then a Supreme Command detachment with Celestine amd two canonnesses thats fine.

Oh man, thanks, I understood you cannot use Imperium as a common keyword in your ARMY. Well this changes nothing for me then. Guess proof reading pays off...

I've gotta say Op your grasp on the meta probably trumps most posters in dakka.

Most things have been covered, there will certainly be an Eldar, Chaos, and Imperium best-in-slot list. And then shake down from there. Nids look like they will still have a strong showing, even with only 3 Flyrants their codex lifts (brah). I'd say it's possible we might see Gilly gunlines back, even with him at 400 I think his rerolls launch his gunlines back into favour due to sheer reliability. Perhaps with an IG CP battery alongside (or basilisks).

But in a more broader sense, gunlines might start using elite counter-punches instead of waste-of-space screens. You've got time to fan out and only half their army (powerlevel) is allowed in the sky now, you can fight that fair. So assault armies may not be the time-bomb gunlines once feared. Maybe we see Bullgryn/Custodes screens more than guardsman, since they are more useful in the gunline mirror when contesting objectives. The -1 to hit Custode banner bearer dude for imperium is going to be an auto-include soon imo.

I expect Morty to have a greater presence in this meta, slingshotting him in turn 1 is still possible with warptime and he is used to being sent in alone anyway. He did a valuable job before, and even more so now that less people will be preparing for t1 charges. You'll probably get a free win or two if you bring him and vs someone who underestimated assault armies in this meta.

Edit: I think the key in jumping this meta is to expect gunline mirrors, and to counter a list that deals with the gunline mirror perfectly. IMO a gunline that has the flexibility to forcibly contest objectives in a durable manner will trump. In ITC you'll be expecting a mirror score on the primary UNLESS you can reduce their damage, so durability will be essential so you can beat em on unit kills. Maybe this means a little more elite, or maybe it means PBCs will be the best unit in the game (too bad you can only take 3).

 hollow one wrote:

But in a more broader sense, gunlines might start using elite counter-punches instead of waste-of-space screens. You've got time to fan out and only half their army (powerlevel) is allowed in the sky now, you can fight that fair. So assault armies may not be the time-bomb gunlines once feared. Maybe we see Bullgryn/Custodes screens more than guardsman, since they are more useful in the gunline mirror when contesting objectives. The -1 to hit Custode banner bearer dude for imperium is going to be an auto-include soon imo.

With all the turn 1 assaults still possible and infiltrates screens are still essential. Plus with DZ change now it means any deep strikers will have to walk half the board to get into juicy targets with properly screened gunline. Have fun after DS walking 2+ turns to reach the real meat.

Really SAD that Fire-Raptors where nerfed into literal oblivion and won't see a single table anymore.

tneva82 wrote:

 hollow one wrote:

But in a more broader sense, gunlines might start using elite counter-punches instead of waste-of-space screens. You've got time to fan out and only half their army (powerlevel) is allowed in the sky now, you can fight that fair. So assault armies may not be the time-bomb gunlines once feared. Maybe we see Bullgryn/Custodes screens more than guardsman, since they are more useful in the gunline mirror when contesting objectives. The -1 to hit Custode banner bearer dude for imperium is going to be an auto-include soon imo.

With all the turn 1 assaults still possible and infiltrates screens are still essential. Plus with DZ change now it means any deep strikers will have to walk half the board to get into juicy targets with properly screened gunline. Have fun after DS walking 2+ turns to reach the real meat.

Uh yep sure, turn 1 assaults are still possible but not at the same magnitude as before (both in total size of army assaulting, and total number of armies assaulting), so I would say less essential. My bet is a shift will occur with how screens function a little, for example almost certainly scouts are not as relevant anymore, or nurglings as much.

And for the rest of what you said I'm not sure what you mean. Why can't you just DS turn 2 and assault.... and not walk? You'll likely be relying on your ground army to shoot a hole open for your DS. If you bring a current meta deep strike list (throw all your points in the air and leave token units on the ground) you're going to have a bad time.

fe40k wrote:


Buffed: It's not even close. Guardsman >>> Firewarriors, while having 21 wounds VS 11 wounds. - Speaking of the value of traits, Guardsman can get the same range as Firewarriors, unless the Firewarriors also take the +range trait. Firewarriors can get +1cover save, which brings down 18*4 Lasgun shots expected output to... 5.994, a significant reduction - but still not enough to win them a prolonged shootout; and they lose it if they move. If Guardsman don't have to move either, they could also take the re-roll 1's trait, which adds... 1.4985 unsaved wounds, for 18*4 Lasgun shots.

Cadre Fireblade has 4W, not 1

 Vector Strike wrote:

fe40k wrote:


Buffed: It's not even close. Guardsman >>> Firewarriors, while having 21 wounds VS 11 wounds. - Speaking of the value of traits, Guardsman can get the same range as Firewarriors, unless the Firewarriors also take the +range trait. Firewarriors can get +1cover save, which brings down 18*4 Lasgun shots expected output to... 5.994, a significant reduction - but still not enough to win them a prolonged shootout; and they lose it if they move. If Guardsman don't have to move either, they could also take the re-roll 1's trait, which adds... 1.4985 unsaved wounds, for 18*4 Lasgun shots.

Cadre Fireblade has 4W, not 1

Actually he has 5 wounds with a 4+ save, but your point definitely stands. Unlike with IG Commanders/Officers one Fireblade can also fairly easily hand out his buff to 50 Fire Warriors even if they spread out a bit, now that his aura works on models in units within 6" rather than only models within 6". Also quite often Fireblades are the preferred choice for warlord as they make the best use out of the best Warlord trait in the codex, turning 6's to wound into AP-1 weapons for all units within 6" shooting a designated enemy unit, which makes a huge difference with a blob of FWs.

In the end it doesn't even matter if Guardsmen slightly edge out Fire Warriors point for point, what matters is that any Tau list can easily plunk 50 Fire Warriors + a Fire blade on any table for only 393 points, or 100 FWs and two Fireblades for 786 points (with a buttload of CPs as a bonus). No matter what list you play, you can still flood the board with a horde of extremely potent anti-horde fire power, that is also quite capable of even destroying tanks (let alone those poor T5 vehicles floating around) in a pinch, especially with the available buffs and strats, particularly Darkstrider and the T'au Focus Fire. With T'au they also become very difficult to charge and basically have to be shot of the table in huge numbers, which will take serious effort and several turns. I think most lists will struggle taking down dozens of 4+ save models and all those bigger threats that require AT firepower at the same time.

While it's not a bad build in theory, but Tau don't have the survivable heavy firepower to try making an effective gunline to table tournament lists in 3 turns. Much the issue solo IG has. You need something to be able to go out and get objectives etc.

That is where this theory lists start to fall apart fast.
Are tau in a bad place, No are they tournament winners I doubt it soup armies imho have that sewn up for the foreseeable future.

Also guardsmen being undercosted, is one of reasons they are the cornerstones of imperial soup lists, untill their is a points efficent way to remove them or they get more expensive they are going to remain a feature of imperial soup.

I think Drukhari is going to make a much bigger splash than people think.

I have theorized a setup with a Drukhari Ynnari battalion (which gets you the coveted Agents of Vect, nasty undercosted Ravagers, cheap Kabal troop units and a dozen bikes with the Fight Again stratagem all in the same detachment) and a Red Grief Wych battalion (More bikes that assault turn 1 moving 26", Wych troops that hop out of their transport 12"+Advance to be able to charge any scoutscreen units, just everything with a nutty threat range) which while it struggles against anything with an armor save, absolutely obliterates infantry heavy horde gunlines. Just drowns the enemy in S4 AP-1 and S3 AP- attacks, and No Escape with the new shardnet makes it so obnoxious to screen against.

Agree ynnari will be fine
imperial soup will be fine (there will likely be a guard detachment but no where near the OMG guard gunline are OP; it will be a support element)
chaos soup took a decent amount of hits and will go down a notch, but still top tier

turn 1 assault is still utterly and completely possible in abundance and if people don't prepare for it anymore because a few lists got nerfed they will get rolled over by ravenguard, blood angels, orks, genestealers cults with guard or tyranid allies, or whatever other list has no problems fielding enough turn 1 assaults.

If I was taking a big Fire Warrior base I would aim for them to have 42" range, which means I would get to shoot first against Guard and have a good chance of out shooting them. 21" rapid fire vs 12" - yes they can take Vostroyan, but I have not seen it used often.

I think Fire Warriors & Kabalites are competitive with Guardsmen. Its when you look at MEQ that regular Guard look undercosted.

I think DE would be top tier if there wasn't a feeling that anything they can do Ynnari does better. Kind of hoping for a Ynnari Codex that completely changes how they work - but I can't see it somehow.