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Made in us
Clousseau




I am going to be rolling out a tool that I use in my battle reports as well as what I use in campaign days to match up players based on army strength. It is a tool derived from azyr comp back in 2015 & 2016 and was updated for GHB 2016 & 2017.

The tool allows you to plug in two armies and calculates their base probabilities and power indices based on their actual statlines and solid information, leaving an actual utilization field for things like abstract abilities to calculate an overall set of numbers you can look at in the end to see where your army weaknesses lie mathematically.

Right now I have it calculating the Average scores (a unit's performance against everything in the game), an Expected score (a unit's performance against only everything in the opposing army) and an Actual Score (what you plug in from your game). Additionally it shows you your efficiency, meaning for your damage output and defense what you get per point spent on that unit (showing you what is over and undercosted and where you could improve).

Older versions also calculated the bell curve of the entire game to rank your unit's base probabilities vs everything in the game, but the 2018 dataset is currently empty except for my Nurgle list and a Daughters of Khaine database since it takes an awful lot of work to populate everything and if I'm only using 20% of it I don't feel like plugging in all of the data, and users can just input that on their own.

This was based on a formula we had written for Azyr Comp, and before that was used to calculate power coefficients for WHFB 6th - 8th edition for tournament play to make sure we were running top lists (it backed up our math). The end result of those many years of using it (though that was on a spreadsheet) was a tournament team of six players that routinely placed high and used this tool quite a bit back in the day to good effect.

So what the point of this thread is is to ask for some desired feature sets that I can plan on adding to make it more useful. This will continue being used this fall for our Firestorm campaign to help match opponents up with closer strength lists to allow casual players the ability to play without getting steamrolled (unless they request it) by much more powerful lists.

An example of the web-based data can be found at http://www.louisvillewargaming.com/AOSStats.aspx though those numbers are now out of date.

They represent only the non abstract stats, so abstract abilities and the like were not incorporated on that website.

If you don't feel math like this matters, thats fine. I'm not interested in a debate/argument over that; that topic has been done several times over and this is for people interested in using statistics and probabilities to help gauge their lists better.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/06/18 13:01:56


 
   
Made in us
Humming Great Unclean One of Nurgle






What's your plan for battalions?

Road to Renown! It's like classic Path to Glory, but repaired, remastered, expanded! https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/778170.page

I chose an avatar I feel best represents the quality of my post history.

I try to view Warhammer as more of a toolbox with examples than fully complete games. 
   
Made in us
Clousseau




For right now, based off of what I know about battalions, they go in and you assign your choices to the battalion.

Then the battalion bonus is applied to all of the units under it, and the increase in performance is attributed to the battalion itself.

So lets say you have battalion "Muh Wounds" which grants all units in it a +1 to their wounding rolls.

The probability of wounding obviously goes up for each of the units in the battalion.

That difference is summed and applied to the battalion's "damage output".

So unit A does 2.5 wounds a turn without battalion but does 3 wounds a turn with battalion and then Unit B does 1.75 wounds a turn without battalion but does 2.5 with battalion, has a net increase in wounds of 0.5 + 0.75 or 1.

Battalion then has a damage output characteristic of 1.0 for X points it costs to buy it.

An alternate method is to simply spread the battalion's points cost across the units when determining the efficiency score and bump up their estimated outputs. You'd then have efficiency score of before and after.

Battalions with abstract abilities like all sorcerers get +2 to cast or something would not have any effect on your scores but you would record this in the Acutal stat block when doing a battle report to get a summary of what you actually got out of taking it.
   
Made in ca
Ancient Venerable Black Templar Dreadnought





Canada

Just more of a mathhammer compilation with some measure of scoring?
Sounds very much like developing a more "balanced" point system.
I agree that the amount and regeneration of Command Points will get tricky, especially with a large array of abilities to choose from.

I found Deathwatch a bit painful since one model confers an ability to the squad.

Then the weighting of say movement vs shooting vs hand to hand and aura abilities and their keyword limitations.
Large amounts of damage over squads vs many for a single model or the flamer weapons that work for both (but limited range).

I guess there would be individual unit rating.
Composition rating.
Some kind of "synergy" or fucus rating.

Simple things like "Fly" is enough to make a unit a different animal.
Cost/capability ratio like just adding "special ammunition".

This is no small attempt.
I assume you are compiling this in Excel somehow?
Then have a tab with various weighting/fudge-factors?

I have wanted to get as many units and weapons into spreadsheets as possible but just compiling everything is a task unto itself.
What is cool though is playing with pivot tables for sorting and organization.

I honestly say good luck and have much interest in this.

A revolution is an idea which has found its bayonets.
Napoleon Bonaparte 
   
Made in us
Clousseau




Yeah the data input has always been massive. Thats why this time I'm scaling back on the data input and only including the stuff I care about and leaving it open to other people to be able to import the stuff they care about.

The synergy rating you are discussing comes into the Actual score. I don't think its possible to find an estimated value on synergy. I know in the past we've tried and used a guess value that we thought would be accurate, but it wasn't 100% based on math because synergies will depend on the player and the game itself being played, whereas stat lines are solid and shouldn't change.
   
Made in us
Humming Great Unclean One of Nurgle






It seems like you are using math as a baseline and aggregating performance data to create values that can't be quantified in mathematical terms, do I have that right?

Also out of curiosity how are blightkings and GUO stacking up?

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/06/18 21:56:36


Road to Renown! It's like classic Path to Glory, but repaired, remastered, expanded! https://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/778170.page

I chose an avatar I feel best represents the quality of my post history.

I try to view Warhammer as more of a toolbox with examples than fully complete games. 
   
Made in us
Clousseau




That is correct. The big fallacy we faced with past iterations was that whole abstract realm where you had to guess weighted values based on gut feeling, which just led to people pooh poohing the whole project.

I don't have all of the data from every list in so the weighted averages aren't game-wide. I'm more focused in on taking two lists and comparing them side by side and seeing how they rank up numerically.

I decided it was a crap ton of work to get every warscroll in the app and then only 10% of it ever be used, so I'm going the other direction and adding what i need when i need it.
   
Made in us
Bounding Dark Angels Assault Marine




crystal, mn

I just got into AoS and am starting a Winterleaf wargrove for Sylvaneth with the new edition.

Id be willing to be a data entry monkey if you can talk me through what id need to do as a contributor.

I know im not playing the the most efficient faction in this edition, as you graded it a flat C average, if im reading the tables correctly. But i have great love for the plane of Life and the models in this faction.

If my being a datamonkey for you can help some other Sylvaneth player kick butt in tourney's im all for it.. I play in my garage.
   
Made in us
Clousseau




Cool as it finished and becomes available you would be more than welcome to enter your faction data in.
   
 
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