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So with AM and BA combo if you use a 1 CP strat you get to roll 2 dice and get a CP on a 5+. If you reroll one of those dice (if it's not a 5) you can try again to get that original CP back, and then roll 2 new dice to get CP from using the command point strat. Just wanna know what the probabilities are of getting 3 or 4 CP

Along these lines

You roll 2 dice. If you roll a result of less than 5 on one or both dice you roll 3 more dice. What are the different probabilities of the number of 5+ dice rolls, i.e probabilty of rolling at least one 5+, two 5+, three 5+ or four 5+ results?
For example, you roll 2 dice and get 5,6. So you've gotten 2 and you stop there.
Let's say you roll a 5,1. You then roll 3 dice and get 6,5,2. This gives you a total of 3 5+ results.

Thanks

I'm going to read between the lines of your post and assume that what you really want are the probabilities of rolling the various different outcomes, to the end of knowing whether or not paying for the re-roll is statistically worth it.

So on the original 2 rolls you have a 55% chance of getting at least 1 CP (44% of exactly 1 and 11% of exactly 2).

Out of the 44% of getting one, you have a 1/3 chance of getting a CP back from the re-roll and whether or not that works there's a 44% chance of getting one CP extra and 11% of 2 CP extra

On the original rolls there's also a 45% chance of daily both. But you're still going to re-roll one, so again within that you have a 1/3 chance of turning it into a CP and then 44% of getting 1 extra CP and 11% of 2 extra CP

PUT THE RELEVANT BITS TOGETHER:

If you choose to spend 1CP to re-roll a dice to see if you got a CP back, you will have:

30% to just end up 1 CP down.
45% to break even
22% to be 1 CP up
4% to be 2 CP up

(Adds up to 101% due to rounding fyi)

Paying for the re-roll is basically a bad idea in that you are more likely to lose CP for using the re-roll than to gain any. If we weight the outcomes by the number of CP generated then it's about even either way, still not very attractive an option.

Thanks mate appreciate it, going to save me a lot of time. I'm guessing none of this changes when you can CP reroll as many times as you want for strats used before deployment like 'preliminary bombardment'

ravenerioli wrote:
Thanks mate appreciate it, going to save me a lot of time. I'm guessing none of this changes when you can CP reroll as many times as you want for strats used before deployment like 'preliminary bombardment'

Correct. Spending a CP to re-roll a roll to check if you regain a CP on a 5+, when you have two 5+ chances to then gain an extra CP will always come out the same way regardless of how many times you use it or how many times you regress it.

More often than not you will lose CP rather than gain for doing it.

I think I speak for pretty much everyone in saying I'm glad that is the case though!

ravenerioli wrote:
Thanks mate appreciate it, going to save me a lot of time. I'm guessing none of this changes when you can CP reroll as many times as you want for strats used before deployment like 'preliminary bombardment'

You can't reroll before the game actually starts, for the same reason you can't command point reroll for who goes first, or your Seize the Initiative roll. Also, most of the time if your Warlord isn't on the field, you can't get your CP back. Usually the wording is like "As long as your Warlord is on the field..."

So your Warlord has to be the first drop during deployment at the very least if you find some shenannigans, like doing Alpha Legion infiltrate deployment or something.

Ravemastaj wrote:

ravenerioli wrote:
Thanks mate appreciate it, going to save me a lot of time. I'm guessing none of this changes when you can CP reroll as many times as you want for strats used before deployment like 'preliminary bombardment'

You can't reroll before the game actually starts, for the same reason you can't command point reroll for who goes first, or your Seize the Initiative roll. Also, most of the time if your Warlord isn't on the field, you can't get your CP back. Usually the wording is like "As long as your Warlord is on the field..."

So your Warlord has to be the first drop during deployment at the very least if you find some shenannigans, like doing Alpha Legion infiltrate deployment or something.

I know you can't re-roll the roll for first turn, but I wasn't aware you couldn't re-roll anything before the first turn.

I've tried looking for the errata but I can't find it. I can't even find where it says you can't re-roll the roll off for first turn, some in definitely missing something! Would you mind point me to the rule for my own sanity please?

Stux wrote:

Ravemastaj wrote:

ravenerioli wrote:
Thanks mate appreciate it, going to save me a lot of time. I'm guessing none of this changes when you can CP reroll as many times as you want for strats used before deployment like 'preliminary bombardment'

You can't reroll before the game actually starts, for the same reason you can't command point reroll for who goes first, or your Seize the Initiative roll. Also, most of the time if your Warlord isn't on the field, you can't get your CP back. Usually the wording is like "As long as your Warlord is on the field..."

So your Warlord has to be the first drop during deployment at the very least if you find some shenannigans, like doing Alpha Legion infiltrate deployment or something.

I know you can't re-roll the roll for first turn, but I wasn't aware you couldn't re-roll anything before the first turn.

I've tried looking for the errata but I can't find it. I can't even find where it says you can't re-roll the roll off for first turn, some in definitely missing something! Would you mind point me to the rule for my own sanity please?

Chapter Approved. Limits of Command.

 BaconCatBug wrote:

Stux wrote:

Ravemastaj wrote:

ravenerioli wrote:
Thanks mate appreciate it, going to save me a lot of time. I'm guessing none of this changes when you can CP reroll as many times as you want for strats used before deployment like 'preliminary bombardment'

You can't reroll before the game actually starts, for the same reason you can't command point reroll for who goes first, or your Seize the Initiative roll. Also, most of the time if your Warlord isn't on the field, you can't get your CP back. Usually the wording is like "As long as your Warlord is on the field..."

So your Warlord has to be the first drop during deployment at the very least if you find some shenannigans, like doing Alpha Legion infiltrate deployment or something.

I know you can't re-roll the roll for first turn, but I wasn't aware you couldn't re-roll anything before the first turn.

I've tried looking for the errata but I can't find it. I can't even find where it says you can't re-roll the roll off for first turn, some in definitely missing something! Would you mind point me to the rule for my own sanity please?

Chapter Approved. Limits of Command.

Ah... That's why I can't find it. Because it's an errata you have to pay for :/

The point of a combo like this is that you end up with a ton of CP throughout the game. Because CP generated can generate more CP.

A more interesting exercise is determining the expected number of CP given you have a 5+ change to get a CP whenever you spend one.

If you start out with N CP, and you generate a CP on a 5+ whenever you spend one, your pool is essentially:

N * ( (1/3) + (1/3)^2 + (1/3)^3 + ... )

Which is a geometric series and converges to 1.5 (multiplied by N, your initial value, to get the expected value).

So, over the course of the game, applied to your CP only, it is a 50% increase in total CP. In an example, if you started with 16 that would mean you'd expect to have 24 CP to spend over the course of the game.

It becomes larger with BA, but that's more difficult to compute as it's a roll per stratagem not per CP, and some stratagems cost 1, 2, 3, etc.