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Made in gb
Decrepit Dakkanaut




UK

Note if I've gotten any of the maths wrong please do say

Note that for this test I have assumed that all 30 models in the unit have gotten into close combat range. In addition I've not applied any buffs, nor even the standard +1 to attack for being within 8 inches of a leader. These are the bottom-line stats for the unit without any modifiers to make it simpler to compare the two equipment options of Bucklers or Duel Blades.

30 Witch Aelves twinblades (with leader bonus to hit)
To Hit ((4/6*29)+5/6)*3 = 60.49
To Wound 3/6*60.49 = 30.245

30 Witch Aelves twinblades (without leader bonus to hit)
To Hit (4/6*30)*3 = 60
To Wound 3/6*60 = 30

First up note that at this scale of attacks the +1 to hit from the leader is a very marginal difference if any. Of course in real world situations the leader is often going to help out more so than not; however as its only a bonus to hit the effect can be more muted than those leaders which give an extra attack. So don't be too afraid to lose the leader.

30 Witch Aelves with bucklers base attacks
To Hit ((4/6*29)+5/6)*2 = 40.33
To Wound 3/6*40.33 = 20.16

Mortal Wounds generated based on wounds made against Witch Aelves with bucklers
5 wounds: 1/6*5 = 0.83
10 wounds: 1/6*10 = 1.67
20 wounds: 1/6*20 = 3.33
30 wounds: 1/6*30 = 5
40 wounds: 1/6*40 = 6.67
60 wounds: 1/6*60 = 10

Saves difference: Duel Blades (1/6) - Bucklers (2/6)
5 wounds: 0.83 = 1.67
10 wounds: 1.67 = 3.33
20 wounds: 3.33 = 6.67
30 wounds: 5 = 10
40 wounds: 6.67 = 13.33

So what does this all show. Well first up it shows that Witch aelves with duel blades are typically going to generate more attacks than those with bucklers until those with bucklers are taking upward of 60 attacks against them. Of course we have to consider that all the wounds generated by the bucklers are mortal wounds, so they are more guaranteed than regular wounds. However even if you consider them double their value you've still got to take 20 hits, or there about, to generate a number of wounds greater than regular witches with twinblades.

However if we then look at saves we can see that as the number of wounds caused against the unit grows, the number saved from the buckler (compared to if it were duel blades) becomes quite significant.

My take on this is that Witch Aelves with duel blades are ideal for attacking any "softer" target with a 5+ or 6+ save where they expect to deal the majority of the damage in their first round of combat. Furthermore they are best when they will recieve fewer attacks against them - either because the target cannot generate many attacks, and/or because their first wave of attacks removes a significant number of the enemy

Meanwhile Witch Aelves with bucklers are far better to charge at a target with a better save, but which is also capable of making a significant return series of attacks; or to throw them into the pathway of a unit likely to charge, which again has a high number of attacks. Any high attack, low model count unit would be an ideal target for them since the mortal wounds have a greater chance of having a significant effect on the attacker when it is their turn to attack.

They both deal a lot of attacks and have significant potential, but they are slightly different in how they can best be used. Remember the bonus of +1 attack if in range of a leader hasn't been included here, but ideally you should be keeping queens up close to witches for that bonus and for applying buffs.



Sisters of Slaughter.
The stats above also work the same for Sisters of Slaughter, however the big difference is that Sisters of Slaughter have a 2inch reach on 2 of their attacks (whips). This increase their chance of dealing damage as a group since even when bunched up, more of them should always be able to engage compared to if witch aleves had been used. Sisters also have a greater pile range and movement, which gives them a distinct bonus, again, on getting as many of their unit into combat at once.
Again the buckler sisters are more durable and actually want more attacks made against them to show their mortal wound generating potential.




Overall its interesting to see that whilst both bucklers and daggers still keep the units in the general same role, there is enough of a divide that it can be tactically advantageous to use one over the other in specific situations.


Edit: A repeat of the study done this time with 10 man units. Note that the wounds caused against remains the same stats so those can be reused without being repeated

10 Witch Aelves twinblades (with leader bonus to hit)
To Hit ((4/6*9)+5/6)*3 = 20.5
To Wound 3/6*20.5 = 10.25

10 Witch Aelves twinblades (without leader bonus to hit)
To Hit (4/6*10)*3 = 20
To Wound 3/6*20 = 10

10 Witch Aelves with bucklers base attacks
To Hit ((4/6*19)+5/6)*2 = 6.83
To Wound 3/6*6.83 = 3.41


Now here we see something interesting, bucklers are at a significant disadvantage in the number of potential wounds they can cause. Whilst the bucklers are going to keep them alive longer, their damage dealing is distinctly reduced unless they take a lot of hits (to generate more buckler potential mortal wounds). Remembering that that these numbers only go into dealing out damage and don't include the opponent rolling to save, 3 wounds isn't much at all, and taking a lot of wounds to generate potential mortal wounds from the bucklers is a very high risk that the unit could be crippled or wiped out.
Whilst the duel daggers also suffers being weaker at only 10 models, it can at least act more like a glass cannon and dish out at least 10 wounds (more if buffed of course). That increases the chances for them causing the first losses on the enemy instead of them being torn apart.

Whilst at 30 warrior strong units I think there is viability in either build, at 10 man strong (minimum) there is a stronger bias to go for duel blades and treat them as a pure glass cannon - ergo vulnerable but strong if they strike first. Bucklers add to survivability, but at the same time the unit has't got the bodies(wounds) nor save to be a tarpit and hold the enemy, nor is it dishing out much damage to make it a proper threat.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/10/09 23:14:10


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Made in ca
Preacher of the Emperor






I saw this on the TGA forum and wanted to graph it out (will see about that when I get home from work- if I remember, and if calc can do it) but the key takeaway I had in the 5 minutes I let myself play with the problem at work was this:

-Bucklers double infantry's unassisted survival rate (and against -1 rend do substantially more than that!)
-Knives increase the infantry's attacks by 50% (or 33.333% if buffed properly) by adding a single knife attack to each model.
-You have a flat 1/6 chance to reflect one attack back with the bladed buckler.
-At some point down the line, a single unassisted knife attack has better and worse odds of inflicting a wound based in the target's save, and the magic threshold is 4+ ((4/6)*(3/6)*(3/6)=36/216=1/6)
-There are many (sooo many!) variables at play in the Daughters of Khaine book that the direct one to one comparison is not going to capture correctly.

The mortal wounds effect of the bucklers is static, it can't be buffed by any of the amazing re-rolls that Daughters of Khaine get (and I don't think there's a temple that buffs them either?) but they likewise can't be debuffed by abilities that subtract from your hit roll or the like. But the knives are extremely dynamic, not only impacted by bonuses conferred by the DoK abilities, but by enemy debufs as well.

My general feeling is that in a perfect world where you're charging into combat with Freeguild with a hag at either side and all your prayers have gone off successfully the extra attack will benefit you over the course of multiple rounds of combat, but the benefit the bucklers provide is when things go wrong and you get t-boned by some armoured monster with a huge number of attacks that intends to drown your witches in wounds and break the unit before they can fight back (and will succeed!)

   
Made in gb
Decrepit Dakkanaut




UK

True points, the bucklers certainly give more survivability to the units which is on top of any spells and buffs that you can throw onto them. So they can become quite "tanky" for a glass cannon unit at their core.

I also agree that in a real battle situation these numbers are not realistic. On one level you note that buffs and debuffs will happen, on another is that it will be very rare for you to get the entire 30 strong unit into combat and have every model able to hit (and that isn't account for losses on the way to the fight).

That said I think they give a baseline means to compare which shows that both are viable in their own ways, which to my mind is a good thing. It shows that neither is totally superior to the other and that each has a niche to fit into.

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TL;DR
10 man unit = daggers
30 man unit = shields
Done.

Joking aside this is a very in depth and thorough analysis, well done.

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Made in gb
Decrepit Dakkanaut




UK

That reminds me I should have done it with 10 and 30 not just 30!


Automatically Appended Next Post:
 NinthMusketeer wrote:
TL;DR
10 man unit = daggers
30 man unit = shields
Done.

Joking aside this is a very in depth and thorough analysis, well done.


I've now added the stats for 10 warrior units. I would certainly agree with you that at 10 models the better and more viable option is duel daggers. At 30 I think both hold their own weight in their own way, but bucklers certainly becomes far more sensible.

This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2018/10/09 23:15:14


A Blog in Miniature

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Made in gb
Decrepit Dakkanaut




UK

I've taken the maths further and compared a unit of 30 Witch Aelves (both kinds) against a unit of 30 Deamonettes!

All the maths is here:
https://warminiatures.wordpress.com/2018/10/20/dice-theory-witch-aelves-vs-deamonettes/

The results are interesting and suggest that the bucklers is the best all round both if they attack first and if they are attacked against. Whilst the duel daggers is only good if they can make the initial attack.

In addition it shows that if there were a +1 attack from having a hero within 8 inches of the unit, it would make a serious difference in performance of both groups, likely speeding up combat by one whole round for each type of encounter.

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