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Hey guys, got a business theory for you here.

Now, this is just my opinion from seeing one of the latest Warhammer Community articles. No official statement has come from Games Workshop, but I think we can extrapolate a few details.

First, the article in question: https://www.warhammer-community.com/2021/10/05/relive-warhammer-40000s-greatest-rivalries-with-new-themed-army-bundles/

For full context, let's consider a few points:
A. AoS 3.0 is off to a slow start. The rest of the Stormcast Eternals line is currently MIA.
B. This week saw preorder of Aeronautica's two new factions, Space Marines and Eldar.
C. Global shipping is a mess, with retailers around the world trying to prep for the holidays.
D. GW normally releases large army bundles (Battleforces) around the holidays.
E. Paper products from China are particularly delayed. The Ork Codex was printed in the US.

Let's also consider hot topics that the fandom has requested answers for, but that GW has remained silent on:
A. What happened with Cursed City?
B. Why was there such a shortage of primer and paint over the past few months?
C. Any comment on the new NDA that has been leaked?
D. Where are the Stormcast Eternals dragons?

And finally, some basic things about GW's distribution system:
A. GW maintains various warehouses around the world to help them distribute things in a timely manner.
B. These warehouses are stocked with product usually well ahead of release, sometimes months.
C. Similarly, sprues are often produced a year or more ahead of release, and designs begin their life years before that.
D. GW does this in order to release product worldwide simultaneously (typically noon Saturday local time).
E. GW has been expanding their warehouse capabilities and sizes in order to meet demand, but Covid restrictions have caused innumerable strategic issues.

With all of that information laid out, we can talk about the hard decision that GW is likely making right this moment with the releases of army bundles.

These bundles are going to be a good deal, a discounted price compared to buying the things separately. They are also going to be a webstore deal. In other words, they are unlikely to come in a single army box like we have seen for Battleforces and such, and are likely to be delivered as they are. Many of GW's boxes come from China, and if they can't get a reliable supply of those boxes, then why bother? Throw the kits as they come into a mailing box and ship it out to the customer from the warehouse. These bundles are also likely to be made up of kits that the various warehouses have in excess supply. We're unlikely to see newer kits included in these. Case in point, the Space Marines bundle is all the vanguard kits, and the only newer kit in the Necron bundle is the Warriors, which they likely made quite a few of to prepare for the start of 9th edition.

Why is this a hard decision for GW to make?

Well, releasing army bundles ahead of holiday battleforces would normally put a strain on customer's wallets, meaning people are less likely to buy upcoming Battleforces A. if they already got what they wanted from a previous bundle and B. if they spent all their money on previous bundles. That said, Battleforces tend to do great on their own anyway, and may already be waiting in warehouses for a release date. This is one factor.

Another is that GW is likely predicting that upcoming preorders are going to be light. Let's consider that we had to wait a long time for Aeronautica's Space Marine and Eldar box to come out. Not only the paper products, but also the Aeronautica dial-bases come from China, which may have something to do with it. Ahead, we see a lot of the Black Templar stuff coming, and rumors abound of a future box set between Genestealer Cults and Custodes. We're also coming closer to the holidays. Traditionally, GW doesn't release a new codex in December. While that hasn't always been the case, it's typically so that nothing competes with the upcoming Battleforce boxes. But what if all of these upcoming releases are sparse due to shipping issues? If things like the Stormcast Dragons have had various issues (rumors say they're stuck on a boat, or there was a mold issue) is just the first of many other delays, how will GW fill the weeks and keep people engaged?

Enter the new army bundles. Take stuff that's in excess in the warehouses and get it moving to keep an even cash flow. They are one-week deals. In other words, a dash of FOMO, a non-permanent deal (so they don't have to maintain stock if stuff sells out), and a way for them to offer a discount to get people excited to buy more models.

I predict that these will fill out weak release weeks, and it's GW showing a bit of their hand. That is, that they expect various supply issues to continue, and this is a stop-gap to help fill out their quarter earnings until the supply issues relent, hopefully after the holidays when shipping stock and spending cools off a little.

What do you guys think? Am I far off?

Aren't these 'bundles' just several standard boxes shipped together for the same price as buying them separately?

 dreadblade wrote:
Aren't these 'bundles' just several standard boxes shipped together for the same price as buying them separately?

Oh touche. Yeah, they're the same price. Well, that takes my discount idea out of the equation, but I think the rest still holds up as this being GW's attempt to fluff the weeks ahead.

drbored wrote:
These bundles are going to be a good deal, a discounted price compared to buying the things separately.

Those bundles offer no discount.

I could see the end-of-year battleforces being replaced by bundles (again, with no discount) though.

edit: ninja'd

Company based in UK that also buys components in from China/Far East expects shipping and production challenges to continue during ongoing pandemic and the collective shooting-selves-in-the-foot of Brexit?

Ya don’t say…

B. These warehouses are stocked with product usually well ahead of release, sometimes months.
C. Similarly, sprues are often produced a year or more ahead of release, and designs begin their life years before that.

These two are various shades of incorrect. Under normal circumstances, sprues are produced no more than 4-6 months in advance of a product release at most after which they generally almost immediately go into assembly (put into packaging with bases, instruction guides, and other components needed to deliver a fully packaged product), and then they are palletized for transport to distribution hubs, etc.), and warehouses are typically stocked no more than 2-3 months in advance. These numbers would generally be on the longer side of whats normal, GW (and indeed the miniatures and tabletop publishing industries in general) operate very lean generally following just-in-time and pull-flow principals and bends over backwards to minimize the amount of time this stuff sits in a warehouse, because it literally costs them money to store it. GW does not generally keep mountains of sprues sitting around their warehouses for a year or more, nor do their warehouses usually have pallets of unreleased products sitting on the shelves months ahead of time - this is the exact opposite of what they want to do and how they desire to operate.

Note that GWs E-Com inventory is separate from warehouse inventory, E-Com inventory is specifically allocated to online sales (and in some - but not all - cases housed at separate facilities from the distribution warehouses that are used to push product out to retail channels.

These bundles are going to be a good deal, a discounted price compared to buying the things separately.

This has already been disproven. The bundles, which are already live on their webstore, do not offer any sort of price benefit over buying the contents separately (insofar as a significant chunk of the bundle is literally a combat patrol box and thus that discount is already baked in).

What do you guys think? Am I far off?

Somewhat far off. Its more likely that GW is trying to clear some space in their E-Com facilities by trying to push less popular SKUs in order to make room for upcoming holiday releases and other items that GW anticipates having more demand for over the holiday season. As the bundles don't actually offer any discount, they are either hoping to take advantage of "low information" consumers that don't recognize that its not actually a deal, or don't really consider this to be that hard of a decision at all as they aren't really doing anything to truly incentivize the purchase of these items and thus anything that they do sell will basically be regarded as a nice bonus but not strictly a necessity.

The bundle is a combat patrol(already a discounted item, as I showed elsewhere with the Necron Combat Patrol) and 2 items to "grow out" from there.

They'll be absolutely useless to someone who's just discount shopping...but meh? Those people tend to not buy direct from GW anyways, and I have zero sympathies for them when they complain about stock chain issues at their chosen discount retailers.

HOPEFULLY, we'll see more Combat Patrol boxes coming out at least--plus whatever the AoS equivalent will be.

I don't expect Battleforces this year though. Not when there's supposed to be at least a 2P battlebox for 40k and AoS.

There was a 2P battlebox for both systems in 2020 released witihin a few weeks of the Battleforces too... Shadow & Pain for AoS and Piety and Pain which was supposed to be released in January but got pushed to March or April

Truly sir, you are a genius.
Congrats upon being amongst the elite few to have deduced that GW - like virtually every other company trying to manufacture & ship around the world in the current environment- is expecting delays.

New Nu Necromunda will bounce the whole thing off the rails anyway.

Nah, AOS 4.0

If this is a shipping problem, as far as we know they are still changing their ERP system. Not having items send can be for the simple reason that there is still something off (like no instructions being there while the software shows them on stock, hence the dragons cannot be packed)

Or something GW has no influence, like plastic and chemical shortage because of plastic (so they cannot make large stock of models in the first place)

 JohnnyHell wrote:
Company based in UK that also buys components in from China/Far East expects shipping and production challenges to continue during ongoing pandemic and the collective shooting-selves-in-the-foot of Brexit?

Ya don’t say…

Not sure that ''shooting selves in the foot'' Brexit will be an issue when it comes to supply problems as production is globally distributed and shipping should not be an issue (but it may defer delivery).

Brexit is being reported as a main cause of delays at the ports.
So non-EU shipping is affected, just due to the paperwork holding up the EU deliveries.

 Skinnereal wrote:
Brexit is being reported as a main cause of delays at the ports.
So non-EU shipping is affected, just due to the paperwork holding up the EU deliveries.

How about transportation inside of UK?
Here in the EU no good things are reported about it due to empty gas stations.

 wuestenfux wrote:

Not sure that ''shooting selves in the foot'' Brexit will be an issue when it comes to supply problems as production is globally distributed and shipping should not be an issue (but it may defer delivery).

Except... pretty much all freight in the UK goes by HGV. And Brexit caused a lot (~50,000) of the UK's HGV drivers (who were EU citizens) to leave. It has also made transporting stuff in and out of the UK through the EU (such as via Rotterdam, the route most freight from China takes IIRC) much more awkward and time-consuming, meaning even those HGV drivers who could do that route are better off just driving stuff around within the EU instead. Why do you think UK supermarkets have empty shelves and UK petrol stations have no fuel when that's not happening (or at least not much) in the rest of Europe? Covid is affecting everywhere, but Brexit is making things even worse in the UK.

(FWIW: I'm a UK citizen and French resident who spends a lot of time in both countries, so I get to see the differences first-hand.)

Petrol Panic is largely just a Panic, and not an issue expected to last. There is a shortage of tanker drivers, that’s true. And indeed lorry drivers in general.

But, that was more a mild irk than an actual problem until people Panicked, and then bought as much Petrol as they could.

Anecdotal? I live in Kent, near two Petrol stations. Last week the traffic was backed up (I can see the roads from my home) as people desperately queued. This week? No such queues, and we’re in one of the areas worst affected by Idiots Panic Buying.

We’re at the point where deliveries are slowed, but not colossally disrupted.

 wuestenfux wrote:

 Skinnereal wrote:
Brexit is being reported as a main cause of delays at the ports.
So non-EU shipping is affected, just due to the paperwork holding up the EU deliveries.

How about transportation inside of UK?
Here in the EU no good things are reported about it due to empty gas stations.

Lack of lorry drivers.
Caused by low wages and no rest areas, they say.
UK drivers who left the industry say they're not going back to it, until that changes.

UK Government's plea for 5000 EU drivers to drive here until the end of the year was met with just 127 applicants in the first week.

And Brexit seeing off a great many non-U.K. nationals.

Some went home whilst they could during COVID, and quite understandably haven’t come back.

Good old Hostile Environment, eh?

 Mad Doc Grotsnik wrote:
Petrol Panic is largely just a Panic, and not an issue expected to last. There is a shortage of tanker drivers, that’s true. And indeed lorry drivers in general.

But, that was more a mild irk than an actual problem until people Panicked, and then bought as much Petrol as they could.

Anecdotal? I live in Kent, near two Petrol stations. Last week the traffic was backed up (I can see the roads from my home) as people desperately queued. This week? No such queues, and we’re in one of the areas worst affected by Idiots Panic Buying.

We’re at the point where deliveries are slowed, but not colossally disrupted.

It's the same as the food shortages last year. Granted they were exacerbated by government telling people to get at least 2 weeks of food stocks and people being told not to travel unless urgent; and since a lot of people don't weekly shop and only get what they need day to day or so, there was a sudden rush. However there were many who just panic bought vast amounts causing local shortages even though the food network had more than enough food in it.

Supermarket staff are saying the same things that garage staff are saying now - there's no actual shortage just a lack of sufficient supply leading to small shortages at a local level, made worse by the media reporting on it resulting in everyone panic buying which drains the system too fast.



And yeah from what I can tell every company is expecting shortages and supply issues. From internal issues within the UK with truckers not able to get items from depos to companies and from there ot customers; through to shipments from overseas. the whole global transporting network is broken and even the lorry shortages aren't just a UK thing, but something being felt in multiple nations around the world too. It's likely going to be something that lasts a fairly long while until Corona is more under control in key nations with major ports so that those ports can actually clear their backlogs of ships and containers.

There's shortage if there's nothing to buy. Doesn't matter if you have bazillion tons at distribution centers if you can't get them to customers.

There's shortage if people can't buy them. Goods lying in distribution center are useless.

As someone in the construction industry, I can tell you that just about every kind of product is facing supply issues right now. I’m near the end of the supply chain, and I understand that it’s a combination of a few bad luck situations in raw materials (we’re honestly only now moving past the impacts of the major Texas freeze from last year, and you have no IDEA how many totally different kinds of products that affected - and that’s just one of the ones that happened), with international trade issues, that has left the system vulnerable to some very underhanded shipping practices (I’ve heard of cargo containers effectively held hostage at the cargo vessel because so many people want the same container).

We’re probably 2 years away from normalized supply chains.

what tneva said. "Theres no actual shortage just lack of sufficient supply" is a wonderful newspeak way of saying "theres a shortage", or put another way - is a wonderful way of saying "theres a shortage" but with extra steps. If theres a lack of sufficient supply, then you're short on supply - its a shortage.

Better start paying and training the locals then

GW has always had these "not a deal" bundles. Players have been warned to avoid them for at least a decade that I recall.

 LunarSol wrote:
GW has always had these "not a deal" bundles. Players have been warned to avoid them for at least a decade that I recall.

They have, but rarely have they actually put an already discounted item(Combat Patrols, despite the complaining evidenced the past few days, are discounted items) in them.

There's been a rumour that part of the US shipping backlog has been due to their warehouse location. Items are coming in, but they don't have the staff to unpack and move everything properly in the warehouse.

drbored wrote:
Hey guys, got a business theory for you here.

Now, this is just my opinion from seeing one of the latest Warhammer Community articles. No official statement has come from Games Workshop, but I think we can extrapolate a few details.

First, the article in question: https://www.warhammer-community.com/2021/10/05/relive-warhammer-40000s-greatest-rivalries-with-new-themed-army-bundles/

For full context, let's consider a few points:
A. AoS 3.0 is off to a slow start. The rest of the Stormcast Eternals line is currently MIA.
B. This week saw preorder of Aeronautica's two new factions, Space Marines and Eldar.
C. Global shipping is a mess, with retailers around the world trying to prep for the holidays.
D. GW normally releases large army bundles (Battleforces) around the holidays.
E. Paper products from China are particularly delayed. The Ork Codex was printed in the US.

Let's also consider hot topics that the fandom has requested answers for, but that GW has remained silent on:
A. What happened with Cursed City?
B. Why was there such a shortage of primer and paint over the past few months?
C. Any comment on the new NDA that has been leaked?
D. Where are the Stormcast Eternals dragons?

And finally, some basic things about GW's distribution system:
A. GW maintains various warehouses around the world to help them distribute things in a timely manner.
B. These warehouses are stocked with product usually well ahead of release, sometimes months.
C. Similarly, sprues are often produced a year or more ahead of release, and designs begin their life years before that.
D. GW does this in order to release product worldwide simultaneously (typically noon Saturday local time).
E. GW has been expanding their warehouse capabilities and sizes in order to meet demand, but Covid restrictions have caused innumerable strategic issues.

With all of that information laid out, we can talk about the hard decision that GW is likely making right this moment with the releases of army bundles.

These bundles are going to be a good deal, a discounted price compared to buying the things separately. They are also going to be a webstore deal. In other words, they are unlikely to come in a single army box like we have seen for Battleforces and such, and are likely to be delivered as they are. Many of GW's boxes come from China, and if they can't get a reliable supply of those boxes, then why bother? Throw the kits as they come into a mailing box and ship it out to the customer from the warehouse. These bundles are also likely to be made up of kits that the various warehouses have in excess supply. We're unlikely to see newer kits included in these. Case in point, the Space Marines bundle is all the vanguard kits, and the only newer kit in the Necron bundle is the Warriors, which they likely made quite a few of to prepare for the start of 9th edition.

Why is this a hard decision for GW to make?

Well, releasing army bundles ahead of holiday battleforces would normally put a strain on customer's wallets, meaning people are less likely to buy upcoming Battleforces A. if they already got what they wanted from a previous bundle and B. if they spent all their money on previous bundles. That said, Battleforces tend to do great on their own anyway, and may already be waiting in warehouses for a release date. This is one factor.

Another is that GW is likely predicting that upcoming preorders are going to be light. Let's consider that we had to wait a long time for Aeronautica's Space Marine and Eldar box to come out. Not only the paper products, but also the Aeronautica dial-bases come from China, which may have something to do with it. Ahead, we see a lot of the Black Templar stuff coming, and rumors abound of a future box set between Genestealer Cults and Custodes. We're also coming closer to the holidays. Traditionally, GW doesn't release a new codex in December. While that hasn't always been the case, it's typically so that nothing competes with the upcoming Battleforce boxes. But what if all of these upcoming releases are sparse due to shipping issues? If things like the Stormcast Dragons have had various issues (rumors say they're stuck on a boat, or there was a mold issue) is just the first of many other delays, how will GW fill the weeks and keep people engaged?

Enter the new army bundles. Take stuff that's in excess in the warehouses and get it moving to keep an even cash flow. They are one-week deals. In other words, a dash of FOMO, a non-permanent deal (so they don't have to maintain stock if stuff sells out), and a way for them to offer a discount to get people excited to buy more models.

I predict that these will fill out weak release weeks, and it's GW showing a bit of their hand. That is, that they expect various supply issues to continue, and this is a stop-gap to help fill out their quarter earnings until the supply issues relent, hopefully after the holidays when shipping stock and spending cools off a little.

What do you guys think? Am I far off?

I mean there is no theory here, this is just correct. Expect goods and commodities to be quite wonky for the next 2-4 years.

 Kanluwen wrote:

 LunarSol wrote:
GW has always had these "not a deal" bundles. Players have been warned to avoid them for at least a decade that I recall.

They have, but rarely have they actually put an already discounted item(Combat Patrols, despite the complaining evidenced the past few days, are discounted items) in them.

There's been a rumour that part of the US shipping backlog has been due to their warehouse location. Items are coming in, but they don't have the staff to unpack and move everything properly in the warehouse.

Literally forklifts can't be repaired, because that company supplies parts uses 'just in time' for their inventory ( like most businesses now ) and that inventory isn't coming in fast enough. Everything top to bottom is a gak show, because our supply chains are efficient, but inflexible.

 Daedalus81 wrote:
Literally forklifts can't be repaired, because that company supplies parts uses 'just in time' for their inventory ( like most businesses now ) and that inventory isn't coming in fast enough. Everything top to bottom is a gak show, because our supply chains are efficient, but inflexible.

And Chinese factories that produce those spare parts are going dark.

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2021/sep/28/china-in-the-grip-of-power-crunch/

And the cost of energy in the EU is rapidly increasing.

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Europes-soaring-energy-prices-raise-affordability-concerns-and-political--PBC_1305645

And backups at ports are believed to be causing oil spills.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/huntington-beach-oil-spill-section-of-pipeline-found-damaged-moved-more-than-100-feet-along-ocean-floor/ar-AAPaKvv

So, many things we depend on are not being made, the disposable income that pays for miniatures is now going towards keeping the lights on, and getting shipping containers into countries has become very, very difficult.

For GW, the road ahead is fraught with peril.