Forum adverts like this one are shown to any user who is not logged in. Join us by filling out a tiny 3 field form and you will get your own, free, dakka user account which gives a good range of benefits to you: No adverts like this in the forums anymore. Times and dates in your local timezone. Full tracking of what you have read so you can skip to your first unread post, easily see what has changed since you last logged in, and easily see what is new at a glance. Email notifications for threads you want to watch closely. Being a part of the oldest wargaming community on the net. If you are already a member then feel free to login now.

We've all been singing the gloom and doom song for a while now, and GW has been nice enough to prove us all right.

So make your predictions for a year from now. It might be fun to dig this thread back up at the end of next summer and see who was right and who was wrong.

Answer some key questions:

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?

2. What will sales be like relative to now?

3. How will the rules be?

4. How will tournament support be?

5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?

6. Most of all, will there be any big suprises in the coming year?

Before any complaining starts let's all remember to keep everything civil I love the idea of this thread (mini-time capsule) but I'd like to see it happen without flaming. Thanks guys. And for all the people who look at this with a less negative perspective this tread is an exellent chance to trumpet your beliefs as well!

My predictions:

1) 10-15% higher. They are incredibly low and next years release schedule should really help their bottom line.

2) Much better. 7th ed Fantasy, Eldar line, Ork line and Orcs for WFB all are incredibly popular items for them and should really help their slow sales.

3) Same.

4) Same or less.

5) Don't know.

6) Plastic drop pods, if they have any brains.

Darrian
(Suprisingly optimistic)

I'm curious to see how the new edition of Warhammer goes, both for sales and quality of rules. I'm not optimistic, but if a change does happen within the next year the only thing I can see that could possibly turn things around is 7th edition. But truthfully, my guess is it will be too little too late. I don't know economics well enough to know what's likely to happen if things keep getting worse, but I'm hoping for a regime change.

#5 I think will be further apart then ever. In my store (I kid not) lord of the rings out sells Fantasy. So with fantasy being given a big push there is not many people to care. From what I also understand North America is more of a 40k place anyways. So with the new release schedule Sales should do well in Europe but in North America even if they do improve it won't be nearly as well as Europe if at all creating a bigger gap between the 2.

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?

 -----Probably the same. I don't see it rising or falling much. D.I.G.

2. What will sales be like relative to now?

-----Well with the release schedule they have, presumtively released, I suspect better sales than this year (since most of this year was devoted to LoTR and Medusa V) D.I.G.

3. How will the rules be? 

-----This should be the topic with the LEAST amount of change. They will still be very bland and ambiguous with GW making a stance that they are simple.... D.I.G.

4. How will tournament support be?

-----Null. I doubt they will have any tournaments other than Chicago. Chicago is the only one that gets any players or actual hype. D.I.G.

5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?

-----Not sure how to answer this.... we'll be on the back burner and in the dark as always when compared to the enlightened UK with their 'more official than you' rules *snicker* D.I.G

6. Most of all, will there be any big suprises in the coming year? 

-----Ahhhh this will be the biggest test. The big surprises will be, NO PRICE HIKES. They will surprise us by going one year without and substantial price hikes. The second big surprise will be..... they release readable understandable FAQ'S for the main rules that completely twist the actual rules upside down and sideways!!! D.I.G.

1. Stocks will be up 5%
2. 40K-wise.still low. Eldar will have strong sales the end of this year, Dark Angels will be do ok, orks won't sell as well as expected and ebay will be rampant w/ chaos stuff as everyone's chomping at the bit for the next big thing. Besides, a lot of disposable income has gone over for FOW and WM.
3. This one is funny. With more codexes coming out, more areas for GW to break their own rules and create strange ambiguities.
4. Indy's will be the tourney scene to go to. They pee'd off too many people in Chicago with craptacular prizes and barren tables.
5.Since the U.S. doesn't get official tourneys, they will be laughing at the Europeans b/c of the strange 'quasi' official rulings they are forced to play with and still wonder why the U.S. doesn't use 1500 tourney formats like most of the world.
6.Two surprises: No price hikes for a year and a Chaos Drop Pod

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?
5-10% lower if not worse (see #2).

2. What will sales be like relative to now?
Despite long awaited releases for Eldar, Orks & DA in 40k, and O+G, Empire, and Vampire Counts (just a guess) in WHFB, unit sales continue to decline with additional price hikes failing to make up enough revenue to cover the loss of customers. With the release of AT43 and deeper market penetrations, Rackham, however, has a banner year and continues to siphon GW customers away, as does Battlefront (FoW), Privateer Press (Warmachine), and other games mfgrs.

3. How will the rules be?
Worse than ever. Company's continuing insistance on not making meaningful, and well thought out errata and FAQ's freely available will remain a thorn in players sides. WHFB will suffer slightly less for it, due to the nature of it's gaming community (ie: generally older players, the Direwolf community & such).

4. How will tournament support be?
Same as current: Anemic. Jeff Hall will be one overworked, understaffed and stressed out GW Events Troll. However, the Indy GT scene will be even better attended (after another year of record attendance), as will Adepticon (ditto) as players look to fill the void.

5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?
Uh, what? Clearly we'll be the bestest, baddest and most awesomest (x2) on da planet, duh!?! :p Jingoism aside, I think our lack of "official" tourney support will continue to be a defining factor compared to Europe & the UK, who will continue to have plenty of official tourney support. While the US will adopt most of the same policies as their European counterparts, we will decline to use the GWUK GT FAQ, relying on just the four pitifully thin army-specific FAQ's released earlier this week (and any others that may be released down the road).

6. Most of all, will there be any big suprises in the coming year?
Chaos ensues at GWUK as the executive board of directors attempts to fix what they think is responsible for the hemorrhaging of customers, and in yet another act of misplaced blam, further gut the studio as well as axeing the handful of remaining original hands. Jervis in an act of protest self-immolates on the front lawn of GWHQ, and the sound of thousands, nay, millions of geeks gnashing their teeth and writhing in agony which causes a great hole to open up and swallow Kirby & Co as the Eye of Terror becomes into existance. Just nobody thought it'd be in Nottingham.

Seriously, I expect heads will roll on the executive board of directors as part of a shake up to fix mis-management. As for actual big surprises, I think they would be welcome changes like price cuts, a return to internet sales in the US, and giving the design team a mandate to publish errata that is coherent, well written and properly edited and published freely via a single PDF (or a series of smaller PDF's for those who don't want to download one giant file). Perhaps also upgrading their terrible forum software to something more customer friendly and allowing their designers and artists more license to interact with the fans.   

In a crater..

One day the price hikes will be too much for one crazed fan.

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?
back around pre earnings level if not lower. Takeover possible. declining market, poor leadership, bad management and increasing competition will all serve to give bearish reports quarter after quarter. kirby's expectations from this earnings report made some people think things are rosy and on a turnaround, but I got a differnt impression. Right now, GW's arritude is anti customer, something that can't be afforded with actual competition.

2. stagnent, probably lower. global economy continues to weaken and oil prices remain high affecting consumer spending and cost of doing buisness. christmas will not be merry for many many companies and retailers. parents will shop local indies in US and not find much gw, instead finding cheaper more prominent alternative lines. even if they know their kid plays GW, parents are notorious for getitng the wrong thing. expect alternate companies to continue to erode GW marketshare as GW institutes more price increases. The GW new releases will fail to generate the numbers that they would have made a few years ago based on the recent previous releases. despite enthusiam for the releases, sales will be limited as people wait for discout retailers and ebay as GW continues to raise prices.

3. rules will continue to be vague and lacking editing. although they will be interesting and an improvment over 3rd edition for 40k, they will still leave players disappointed at being good but not great, close but still missing. the models will continue to excite people. Overall the game will improve as more armies are brought to 4th edition and get much needed makeovers, even if they aren't the best.

4. less then now, expect continued decline in support.

5. US is going to get hit hard, might not be within a year time frame, but it will happen. GW may go forward with adding more stores, so it may look good within the year, however, the stores will not gain back the investment in them. continued decline in consumer spending and increases in cost of doing buisness will have GW stores facing the same fate as gateway stores. on the good side, with indies relying less on GW, adding GW stores are less likely to drive the indies out of buisness. GW will continue to make misstep after misstep as they try to fit the US into the UK model, driving more and more people into other game lines.

6. Possible suprises might be a serious takeover bid announced after the 4th quarter numbers are released. Another possibility is Kirby finally receives a vote of no confidence as numbers continue to fall and his attempts to explain out of it get more blatent. US GW fianally acknowledges it screwed up and reinstitutes internet sales, justify it by saying so few indies are left that it won't hurt them.

Farther afield, GW announces support of specilist games will increase and they will have a section of WD again. WD gets another makeover, this one actually good. GW actually drops prices as more and more product remains unsold.

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?
About 5% higher and relatively stable.

Games Workshop is interested in keeping things slow and steady for their long-term investors, I think. They don't appear to be interested in taking any chances. The Lord of the Rings deal was the first "risk" they've taken in a very long time and it was a no-brainer. I really don't see them finding more opportunities like this unless someone offers them a Harry Potter skirmish game. ;-)

2. What will sales be like relative to now?

About the same.

I expect to see a short spike when Dark Angels are released (they're marines after-all) and again if plastic Drop Pods are released (which they would be smart to release a fiscal half-year away from DA), but I don't see many of the other releases catering to a big sales influx. The current schedule seems focused on products that are likely to keep the current GW gamers in the hobby, but I don't see any of them being "big" enough to provide a lot of room for new growth -- or to reclaim the players they're slowly losing to other systems.

3. How will the rules be?

About the same.

As much as I hate to say it, GW is not going to learn their lesson because they really don't care to adapt. GW's rules development and clarification mindset is still stuck in the mid-80s and it's going to stay there as long as we don't see some shake-ups in staffing.

4. How will tournament support be?

About the same. They're going to continue to press their games' competitive aspects without giving them the solid rules support they need to be taken seriously. The hobby community at large is going to continue to point and laugh at them because they're going to continue to expect people who have invested hundreds of dollars and hundreds of hours to "compete" in an environment where a flow chart is "necessary" to guide a dispute's "progression" to a random dice roll.

5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?

This is one area that I think will see slow, steady change -- but only for the worse.

I think GW is going to continue to lose FLGS support in the US unless they revamp their dealings with independent stockists. GW currently treats their independent retailers very poorly. They do this because they think they can drive business to their own stores, but the geographic area of the US is so large that there are relatively few official GW stores to pick up the slack. The GWUS Online Store is also lacking. It's updated slowly, it's buggy and it often malfunctions for days at a time. The business strategy that works in the UK where you can drive a couple of hours or take public transport to an official GW store doesn't work in the majority of the US. The area is just too big for a small company to cover.

I don't think it's going to happen in the next year, but I think GW is eventually going to lose their "rural" (i.e. non-New England, non-Seattle, non-Chicago, non-LA; basically areas that aren't supported by multiple official GW stores) US market. If you ask people in the US "rural" markets why they play GW games over other games, it's not because they think the models or the rules are better. The answer is almost universally "...because I can find other people who play..."

But those other people are starting to switch to other games now. In some areas, GW is now the niche system. Flames of War, Warmachine, etc. are taking over as the dominant systems. I think this trend is going to continue. As it does, independent stockists will see fewer reasons to put up with GW's poor attitude and will continue cutting back their GW product stock.

6. Most of all, will there be any big surprises in the coming year?

I'd like to hope so, but...honestly? No. Games Workshop rarely surprises us. They are not a company known for taking risks. Games Workshop embraces change about as quickly as a tranq-darted elephant can be loaded into a wheelbarrow by two drunken grots.


In the long-run, I think GW's current business strategy is going to keep them in business for a long time to come -- but it's going to continue to slowly kill the feel of the "Games Workshop Hobby" in the process. They're not willing to take the "risks" the hobby needs to grow under the looming shadow of a lot of good and long-overdue competition.

Most of this could change if Games Workshop would tell Kirby to pack up his desk and take a hike...

It'll all be same old, same old I'm afraid.
Except that there will be new Harlequin models and plastic Drop Pods...

It will be 2007 and I will have my Eldar...

...which I probably won't play, but I'll slowly buy, collect, and paint.

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?

Hard to say, I really think that there are management issues at GW. When you see problems as the end user like we see, it is symptomatic of larger issues. If they don't care enough about their end user to tighten things up, how good of a job are they doing keeping costs in check and making sure that all money that is being spent is being spent wisely.

2. What will sales be like relative to now?

Units or $$$? I am pretty sure the reason that GW raised their prices AGAIN is because the internet is taking a bite out of GW Store sales. Anyway, Units up, $$$ close enough to the same that it will be negligable.

3. How will the rules be?

Same.

4. How will tournament support be?

Same

5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?

Same

6. Most of all, will there be any big suprises in the coming year?

I guess this is where we get to go buck wild, how about a movie? Maybe we could get Peter Jackson to sign on. Or what about a CMG, HammerClix anyone? Moving manufacturing to China.

>1. Where will the stock be relative to now?
Probably up, based on my assumption that investors will get over the LotR sales drop and see that business has stabilized. The added chunk of profit from sales of the new PC game might help as well, as it will reassure GW shareholder that licensed games can keep turning a profit. Of course, if Warhammer Online tanks (which I entirely expect it to) the failure may cancel things out.

>2. What will sales be like relative to now?
WFB seems to have been on an up tick already, the release of 7th edition will probably push it up farther. Combine that with the new Eldar and expected new Ork models and I'm guessing sales may be excellent.

>3. How will the rules be?
The same as ever - "It's a hobby!" Although I personally believe that GW is internally building new vehicle rules that we won't see until late 2007 or even 2008, to address the growing unpopularity of the most advanced vehicles in the universe not being able to move and fire, and constantly being blown to bits by any little twit with a lascannon.

>4. How will tournament support be?
The official tournament scene will keep dying off. Between WYSIWYG requirements and continued inept handling of FAQs/errata/etc. it just won't make a comeback.

>5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?
I'm not remotely in touch with the UK, so I'll defer to those who are.

>6. Most of all, will there be any big surprises in the coming year?
A new Chaos codex around the end of the year to address the endless problems with that awful book, and maybe encourage people to play with the Land Raider. Plastic drop pods would be nice, but won't surprise anyone due to the rising number of custom kits and knockoffs leeching away sales of Rhinos and FW drop pods.

I think the big point may well be the WHFB 7th edition and Warhammer Online synergy. A lot of people who like WoW hate Blizzard, and would happily jump ship to at least try it out. Once there, they will have a strong and fresh miniature game to dive into. MMORPGs tend to do very well, and that could give GW a good chunk of change and a good influx of people.

I also think we may see LotR breathe its last and resources diverted back to where they belong - 40K/Fantasy, or at least specialist games.

The new 40K products seem pretty good too. The great new models (Eldar, CoD, etc) and great new rules (come on... Cities of Death really is fun) could be the start of a strong trend.

On the other side, we have crap FAQs, poor tournament support, and rising prices. But I think the above listed 'good things' will show GW stocks climbing and overall stance strengthening over the next calendar year.

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?
High enough that I'll kick myself - again. Who could've seen (ok, apart from inside traders) that huge price jump that happened a few weeks ago? Then when I decide to buy some and hope for some long-term rise...it'll plumet.

2. What will sales be like relative to now?
Same.

3. How will the rules be?
Bizarro-world.

4. How will tournament support be?
Same. We're only talking a year here.

5. How will America be compared to Europe and the UK?
Awesome. For Warmachine.

6. Most of all, will there be any big suprises in the coming year?
Tom Kirby is no longer CEO?

1. Where will the stock be relative to now?

                -Lower.  Recession, its not just for breakfast any more.

2. What will sales be like relative to now?

                -Lower.  See above.

3. How will the rules be?

                -Unchanged. With the demise of Chapter Approved rules progress and new lists will cease.

4. How will tournament support be?

                -Unchanged.

5. How will <st1:country-region w:st="on">America</st1:country-region> be compared to Europe and the <st1:place w:st="on"><st1:country-region w:st="on">UK</st1:country-region></st1:place>?

                -Sales will be substantially lower. The aforementioned recession, decline in local independents, and plethora of substitutions-both mini and non-mini will continue to drive sales down here.

6. Most of all, will there be any big suprises in the coming year?

                -In a shocking revelation, it will be discovered that Captain Anderton is really…Mauleed.

What a bunch of softball questions.

The real question is where 'you' are going to be in a year with GW?

Are you going to give up GW entirely and move into another mini-wargaming hobby?

Are you going to keep complaining vis a vie  Dakka or other venues, but still purchasing product from GW?

Or are you going to accept the situation for what it is and just keep gaming, painting, or doing whatever it is to keep you in the hobby, as best as you are able?

Posted By Brother Tiberius on 08/21/2006 7:21 AM

The real question is where 'you' are going to be in a year with GW?

Now that is the question.

My thoughts at this moment are not much. 40K has really lost its luster for me. Fantasy is still blah. If the LGS gets a decent fantasy group once 7th comes out, I may be inclined to assemble my chaos army to use. But I can't see spending much money on it. May hit a GT(if they still happen next year) with a couple of buddies, but it'll honestly be just to hang out with them. Although I would love to get a couple of games of warmachine at a GT. I think it'll be funny.

Since stock is tied directly to profits, and GW management wants to increase profits, a few things will probably happen. GW is facing the stark reality that on the down side, they have credible competition, due to an economic downturn, the whole "hobby" pie is smaller (and split more ways), that independent retailers are moving away from their product lines, that a goodly proportion of veterans have left the company.

On the other hand, I've noticed that their hobby centers are in general, well run, the new product lines will stimulate interest. (In fact, the I gave the "Skull Pass" box a second look before suddenly realizing that while the starter is very cool, to add to a fantasy army is $45/regiment (CDN), and dismissed it as taking away from my Warmachine budget!).

Based on the above, I would say that:

Stock Price stays stable - there will be a bit of an upswing in sales IN CERTAIN RANGES, although many of the big buyers (veterans) have already left. While the Eldar release will stimulate sales to a degree, the size of the pie won't change - and I think that Eldar and Fantasy will cannibalize sales from other armies. GW needs to concentrate on getting more players (and getting back old players).

Sales in GW retail outlets will be above average. Sales at discounters will be very good. Sales at independents will be below average / poor. (I am basing this around the observation at all my local independents that 40k is selling mediocre, with online sales hurting them, and that Fantasy moves -NOT AT ALL-, and independents typically do not carry LOTR. I mean, one place had a 50% off sale on boxing day to try and reclaim some shelf space and create interest, and managed to move less than 1/3 of his stock.)

Rules will be the same old crap they've been feeding us. Strangely, I do not remember anywhere near the number of rules arguements in 2nd edition, even though the game was loads more complex. The only arguements were balance based.

Tournament support: Well, here in Canada we'll probably have Toronto GT and a handful of Conflict events. Can't comment south of the border.

Big surprise: Canada deploys ever increasing amount of peacekeeping troops to trouble areas and increases budget spending on our anemic millitary. Taxes are cut, and deficit increasess. Canadian dollar drops in value to around $.70 USD again. GW Canada "price adjusts" in July of 2007 by raising all product lines by $3.00 to compensate. On the other hand, GW releases the Ork Codex with a new product line. Unfortunately, the basic ork boyz are overpriced, and leadership problems make the army random and difficult to play. GW also produces a plastic Sqiggoth kit that White Dwarf hails as the greatest ever, eclipsing even the Mumak in size. The price also eclipses the Mumak, as it retails for $100 CDN and takes up huge amounts of shelf space, while moving very few units.

I wonder how much of their veteran base they need to be economically profitable.

For example, I used to sample models by buying the codex and a box or
two of every release. Is that all they actually need to stay profitable? Or do
they need me to buy into multiple armies?

I wonder because I'm buying into Wood Elfs and Eldar, but not much beyond that.

I think there is a strong possiblity that GW will continue to loose customers and their sales will shrink. we're not talking about a total implode, but they will find that they aren't the only player out there anymore. I know Kirby likes to say that the market place has slowed down, but I think that this total rubbish.

6 or 7 years ago when Warzone came and went I would of agreed, nobody was moving away from GW, but now there are serious contenders. I was at a local club running a demo of Warmachine and Urban War. Now it was a bit unusual as there was only 4 players there that month, and these guys already played Warmachine. So we demo'd Urban War and came away with 4 sales of 300pt boxed sets, and knowing that they will buy more sets later on.

Ok, it was a small turn out, but the guy who organised it was pretty certain that the rest of the members would take up Warmachine & Urban War once they saw it. The reason why? It's the fact that you can spend £30 - £40 on a box set and that will get you started. You can then either expand it to a 40k size force or in the case of Urban war, you can get all the forces made for the same cost as a 1500pt 40k army.

On top of this you also have gamers buying the £40 -£70 boxed sets for PBI (Poor Bloody Infantryman, by Peter Pig). The money is being spent, but not in the direction of GW.  So I would say that the market-place is healthy not the reverse as preached by Mr Kirby

I'll probably keep playing 40k, but I won't be buying much new product as I'm probably going to try and get into games with better rules. I just don't have time to keep rereading GW's  rulebooks, codices and FAQs and trying to figure out where the rules start, where the fluff ends, and whether or not other people's interpretations are correct.

Or, if I'm really smart, I'll do what I did last time, and put all my wargaming stuff back into the closet for another two years. Even better, ditch it all on eBay and just never play again.