KeyserSoze wrote:
No Bestigors no party. Drop 1 Ghorgon maybe some gors or even 1 Shaman and take 38+ Bestigors.

 Padelis117 wrote:
I would really be curious to see how will your list compete against a missile heavy dwarf list.

PirateRobotNinjaofDeath wrote:
That said, I'll agree with others that your list is lacking in chaff. The game is won or lost in the movement phase, and without much shooting or chaff you're going to have trouble with board control. For instance, imagine what you're going to do against a WE cauldron star. It'll chew through pretty much anything you have, and you really don't have anything to stop or even redirect it.

 Arbiter wrote:
I disagree with above, I fight the WE star and they will shred units with little to no AS, due to their insane attacks, as empire I can bog them down easily with reiks knights run them 1 x 5 and sit there the whole game, for BM they should be able to chew threw the witch elves with impact hits because there armour is non existent.

Also as you say your magic will murder my characters looking through the numbers, you on average get 7 dice to cast (+1 for channel once every 2 turns) and I get 3 (+1 every 3 turns) you will have to try to IF your death magic for it to go through, also all my Characters (except the knight champion) has a minimum of 5+ wardsave and in CC the knights alone getting 15 S6 hits with re rolls (hatred) and 2s (or 3s due to wildform) to wound which is kills, not including the horses attacks (which could help because BM have no armour) I think it could crumble your block of BM due to combat res.

thedarkavenger wrote:

 Arbiter wrote:
I disagree with above, I fight the WE star and they will shred units with little to no AS, due to their insane attacks, as empire I can bog them down easily with reiks knights run them 1 x 5 and sit there the whole game, for BM they should be able to chew threw the witch elves with impact hits because there armour is non existent.

Also as you say your magic will murder my characters looking through the numbers, you on average get 7 dice to cast (+1 for channel once every 2 turns) and I get 3 (+1 every 3 turns) you will have to try to IF your death magic for it to go through, also all my Characters (except the knight champion) has a minimum of 5+ wardsave and in CC the knights alone getting 15 S6 hits with re rolls (hatred) and 2s (or 3s due to wildform) to wound which is kills, not including the horses attacks (which could help because BM have no armour) I think it could crumble your block of BM due to combat res.

So an army that has witches wounding on a 5+ at a minimum isn't that great against it? 1 wildform means that your uber unit of death wounds on 6s. So you're relying solely on poisoned attacks.

Armour doesn't matter in this case. You're relying on magic to do the damage you need to. As without it, the gor break the witches. Without the shadow magic and wildform, they get 10 wounds through. The gor get 11 back through to you. Without double 1-ing their Primal Frenzy. This results in the gor winning.

On a side note, if I've made any mistakes, it's because it's late and I'm tired.

Armour doesn't matter in this case. You're relying on magic to do the damage you need to. As without it, the gor break the witches. Without the shadow magic and wildform, they get 10 wounds through. The gor get 11 back through to you. Without double 1-ing their Primal Frenzy. This results in the gor winning.

 Puddle_Pirate wrote:
You are not looking at what the Herdstone does. I am sorry, but even if I roll double ones for winds, I will have 3 wizards around it and will end up with dice being 5 to 1 before channel. 5 dice is more than enough to get 2 or 3 spells off.

 FlingitNow wrote:

Armour doesn't matter in this case. You're relying on magic to do the damage you need to. As without it, the gor break the witches. Without the shadow magic and wildform, they get 10 wounds through. The gor get 11 back through to you. Without double 1-ing their Primal Frenzy. This results in the gor winning.

? 30 Witch Elves is 60 attacks 15 poison plus another 30 hits wounding on 5s is another 16.67 giving a total of 31.67 wounds. That's a lot more that 10! Plus whatever the Cauldron does (which has S5 impact hits). Perhaps you forgot poison and rerolls? Even with Wildform up they do 24.167 wounds to you.

Remember. The cauldron takes up the space of 9 models. So they get 21 for the first rank, and 14 for supporting.

Thirty five attacks, hitting on 4s(3/6=50%), resulting in 17.5(18) hits. 2.9(3)(1/6 of total hits) of those hits are poisoned. Out of the rerolls, you get eight hits(3/6 = 50% of the remainder), which results in 1.336(1) poisoned. So that's 4 dead gor already.

 FlingitNow wrote:

Remember. The cauldron takes up the space of 9 models. So they get 21 for the first rank, and 14 for supporting.

Thirty five attacks, hitting on 4s(3/6=50%), resulting in 17.5(18) hits. 2.9(3)(1/6 of total hits) of those hits are poisoned. Out of the rerolls, you get eight hits(3/6 = 50% of the remainder), which results in 1.336(1) poisoned. So that's 4 dead gor already.

Well 10 For are 250mm wide. Cauldron + 10 Witches are 260mm wide so all witches get to attack. Also a 3rd of all hits are poisoned as only 4s, 5s and 6s hit. So yeah that's 32 dead plus the Cauldron. Probably only your characters survive to hit back...

Also 21 isn't divisible by 4 so I don't know how you got to 21 for the front rank.

Grix wrote:

 Puddle_Pirate wrote:
You are not looking at what the Herdstone does. I am sorry, but even if I roll double ones for winds, I will have 3 wizards around it and will end up with dice being 5 to 1 before channel. 5 dice is more than enough to get 2 or 3 spells off.

You might want to double check that if you are running the Herdstone at the FOWL GT. ETC rules cap you at +2 dice INCLUDING channels which is why I am not running it. Also D&D does not affect for the LD snipe, again why I will not be running death at FOWL.

Either way looking forward to seeing you there gonna be a challenge for best BM player.


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Also you are paying 4 points to make your BSB more vulnerable. 4 attacks with a 3+ AS is NOT better than 3 attacks with a 2+, 6++

Please show your maths behind that 32 dead. Wounding on 5s, without the rerolls to wound, to get 32, 200 attacks(16.7% wound). With the rerolls, 170(As you'd get 19.4% to wound)


As for the number in contact, the "Cauldronstar" is 10 models wide INCLUDING the cauldron. because any wider and it becomes too unwieldy.

As for the attacks, I didn't calculate the super frenzy. Base on Base with no character support.

 FlingitNow wrote:
OK 60 attacks x 3/4 = 45 hits, a 3rd of those are 6s which means 15 poison. 30 hits x 5/9 = 16.67 more wounds for a total 31.67 (rounded to 32 wounds). With Wyssans on them you still get the same 15 poison but with 30 hits x 11/36 = 9.167 wounds for a total of 24.167 wounds. You can't say that it is down to competency that you'll have Wyssans off. It could get scrolled you could fail cast it. He could have killed your beasts wizard before combat is met etc. I've had Morathi fail to cast a 3+ spell on 2 dice as the first spell on 3 magic phases in 1 game before. It happens you can never rely on buffs happening. But as pointed out it doesn't necessarily make much of a difference.

 FlingitNow wrote:
I haven't miscalculated poison. I have 60 attacks that's 30 hits 10 of which is poison, 30 rerolls 15 hits 5 of which are poison. If you don't understand maths don't correct people who do. With multiplication and division order doesn't matter you get the same result.

You are hitting only on 4s, 5s and 6s therefore a 3rd of your hits will be each roll meaning from the 45 hits on average there will be 15 "4s", 15 "5s" & 15 "6s", meaning 15 poisoned.

I've taken out the 15 poisoned (the correct number) leaving 30 hits each with a 5 in 9 chance of wounding. You talk about him sniping off the Lvl4 yet totally ignore the possibility of it happening to the Shaman. Which is the most likely way for him to die (not necessarily a snipe spell to spells in general or a miscast) and you've glazed over the chance to fail cast or be dispelled. Plus like I said even with Wyssans up and no buffs on the Witches they still butcher the Gor, due to 15 poison. Yes it is a massively unwieldy unit with a whole 10mm more width than your unit... You think the posted list would out chaff DE? Please.

 FlingitNow wrote:
You don't understand the maths. 60/6 = 10 you are dividing the hits by 6. It is the attacks you divide by 6 or the hits by 3. Again if you don't understand the maths at least read when someone who does is explaining it to you as I have done 3 times now.

With 60 attacks I get 45 hits right? 60 x 3/4 = 45. So if by your maths that is some how only 7.5 "6s", then there must be 7.5 "5s" and 7.5 "4s" which totals 22.5. So what are on the other 22.5 hits? They must be numbers between 4 & 6 excluding 4, 5 & 6. So what magical are you rolling that give you fractions of numbers?

Yes I know how the Herd Stone works. But Dark Elves are quicker. Your Death wizard would therefore only get the chance to snipe after the Dark Elves so as pointed out could be dead by then. Could also not be. Your Beasts wizard could have died to miscasts before that crucial turn. You could attempt to cast a 3 plus spell on 2 dice and fluff it, I could have saved my scroll till then. I'm not pinning any hopes on the Witch Elf unit, I'm not a massive fan of it. You said it does 9 wounds to the Gors unit when in fact it does 31 so I pointed that out so the OP would realise putting those Gors into the Witch Elves is a dumb idea and that even with Wyssans he's in real trouble.

I'm just giving him the accurate maths.

 Puddle_Pirate wrote:
GETTING OFF TOPIC Again, I will ask.... I have not seen this crazy witch list. If someone could be so kind as to send me (PM me) a list my buddy can play against me so I can check it out.

Moving on, besides DE, anyone else have something that is a common build that I can try out or test up against?

 FlingitNow wrote:
Seriously read what I've read. Yes you get 30 hits then 15 hits. You can add them together that's how maths works. Trust me I did a degree in it. Where x is the probability of causing a wound (or poisoning) 30x + 15x = 45x so you can just work out x and multiply by 45.

So from the first 30 hits there are 3 possible outcomes 4, 5 & 6. 1, 2 & 3 are misses so are not possible outcomes from the 30 hits. So we have 3 possible outcomes and each is as likely as each other. Therefore on average those 30 hits will be 10 "4s", 10 "5s" and 10 "6s" therefore 10 poisons. Or 30/3 because thereare 3 equally likely outcomes one of which results in poison. Then the same for 15 getting you another 5 poisons.

Or if you want to divide by 6 you divide the entire number of attacks which is on average 90. 60 attacks gives 10 poisons and 30 rerolls which generate another 5 poisons. Total of 15 or just go straight to 90/6 which is shock and awe also 15.

The number of poisons you get is 15. You get 15 poisons on average. The average dice roll will result in 15 poisons. Get it yet?

That is not how percentages work.

If you were rolling 30 twice, then it would be 1/3 of the total is sixes. But you're not. You're calculating the total number of 6s on 30. then rolling 15 and calculating that. So,as per the rules of percentages. You cannot just lump them together. As 1/6 of 30 is different to 1/6 of 15. This is because you roll two batches of dice.


So, for the average % of dice from the REROLLED attacks, you take 16.7% of 30, which is 5.01. And 16.7% of 15. Which is 2.505. Not 15. You'd need a full 60 hits for 15 poisoned.

 FlingitNow wrote:

That is not how percentages work.

If you were rolling 30 twice, then it would be 1/3 of the total is sixes. But you're not. You're calculating the total number of 6s on 30. then rolling 15 and calculating that. So,as per the rules of percentages. You cannot just lump them together. As 1/6 of 30 is different to 1/6 of 15. This is because you roll two batches of dice.


So, for the average % of dice from the REROLLED attacks, you take 16.7% of 30, which is 5.01. And 16.7% of 15. Which is 2.505. Not 15. You'd need a full 60 hits for 15 poisoned.

Again you are trying to argue something you don't understand. It is NOT a 6th of hits. It is a 6th of dice rolled. I roll a dice I have 6 possible outcomes one of which is poison. So if I roll 60 attacks that is 10 poisons, and 30 rerolls which is another 5 poisons. It is 15 poisons please go take a course in maths, read what I've actually written or just concede. My maths is Perfect here.

I'm just going to agree to disagree. Because, my knowledge of maths, whilst isn't University level, it certainly is above average A-level, tells me otherwise, and it's clear that I cannot convince you of anything.
And we're just derailing the thread.

FlingitNow wrote:

I'm just going to agree to disagree. Because, my knowledge of maths, whilst isn't University level, it certainly is above average A-level, tells me otherwise, and it's clear that I cannot convince you of anything.
And we're just derailing the thread.

What I have stated for the maths is fact.

Right let's try 1 more level at this I've explained it so an A-level student could understand. I've explained it so a GCSE student could understand and I'll try at primary school level.

1) If I have 60 attacks and roll them how many on average will come up a 6?

2)If I roll 60 dice where there are 6 equally likely outcomes how many of each outcome would I get on average?

3)If I roll 30 dice where there are 6 equally likely outcomes how many of each outcome would I get on average?

4) If I have 30 dice with 3 possible out comes say 4, 5 & 6. How many 4s would I roll on average? How many 5s? How many 6s?

So you should have realised the first, 2nd and forth questions have the same answer. You will know if I have 60 attacks hitting on a 4 I will get 30 hits. However I have rolled 60 dice not 30. So it is 60 that gets divided by 6. Because for the 30 hits there are only 3 possible outcomes of 4, 5 & 6 as 1, 2 & 3 all are misses. Thus if you want to work out the poisons from hits you divide by 3 not 6. If I was hitting on 3s instead that would mean I have 40 hits but now there are 4 possible outcomes of 3, 4, 5 & 6 so I would divide the 40 by 4 or still divide the original 60 by 6.

So all that should prove to you that you get 10 poisons from 60 attacks without rerolls. Now I get on average 30 rerolls following exactly from above you get the same answer but halved. So that would be 5 poisons.

10 + 5 so let's count that up so 11 is +1, 12 is +2, 13 is +3, 14 is +4 so 10 + 5 is 15! Get it now? Or do we have to cover counting too?

So from now on my advice to you is to not use Math hammer in posts. You clearly have no grasp of basic mathematics and there's no shame in that. But if you try to use maths to give advice you will make mistakes as you don't understand it like here where you thought 9 wounds would be done when intact it is 32 that makes a massive difference to a Gor unit charging in. So in the interests of yourself and the people you're trying to help please stay away from maths until a point in time where you have a decent grasp of GCSE level.

 FlingitNow wrote:
Sorry for derailing thread I didn't want you parking your Gor into Witch elves and expecting them not all to die which they would (even with Wyssans) and for some reason Darkavenger wanted to argue maths he didn't understand.

I think your list is fairly solid for beast men. I think you lack a bit of chaff. If you're convinced by it and do well with it take it to tournaments and see how you go. Good luck!

 Arbiter wrote:
Wait a second.. The witch brew means they never lose their frenzy (that's how it was played vs me like 4 days after DE was released) but if hes got herdstone maybe he can just death mage them to pieces.