I'll start by saying this, I may be a bit biased. I like what has been done with 7th. If you don't like unbound armies, don't play against them. If you don't like maelstrom missions, play eternal war. If you want to field a cool army that is outside the realm of a normal FOC, go for it as long as your opponent agrees to it. They have given us the creativity to play the game the way we want and still be within the rules. Now to the point of my post:
Why would a company with no debt and £9mil in the bank that still turns a profit month after month and year after year be in any danger of going under? Yes, profits are down. This is the age of unemployment, recession and new video game systems. What gaming company hasn't lost some profit since the 2008 recession? Yet somehow (price gouging), they are able to remain profitable, continue paying dividends to shareholders and fill the bathtub almost as fast as it leaks. I know most of us would love to see GW sold off to someone else. However, as long as they are continuing to make a decent profit and remain debt free, I just don't see it happening. I also think their recovery since the 24% stock drop has been nothing short of remarkable. Even with people buying armies from friends and on ebay, and all the malcontents who said "feth it" when 7th was released, I would be willing to bet my army that their full year numbers will be somewhat better than their 6 month numbers just looking at stock prices. It may not be the best of times for GW, but I can't see a scenario where they would fold in the next 5 years based on the numbers. Thoughts?
Toofast wrote: Why would a company with no debt and £9mil in the bank that still turns a profit month after month and year after year be in any danger of going under?
Because you have to look at trends, not single reports. And what we see now is that GW is losing market share and sales volume with no apparent hope of turning it around. Sure, they've kept the profit numbers acceptable, but only because of aggressive cost cutting and price increases (including day-1 DLC and larger, more expensive kits). And eventually GW are going to reach a point where there's nothing left to cut without making obvious sacrifices in quality, and prices can't go up any higher without sacrificing so many sales that it's a net loss. Meanwhile the rules are an absolute disaster, model releases are inconsistent in quality, and GW doesn't seem to see any problem with that. So that means that GW isn't ever going to increase sales by producing a superior product, they're entirely dependent on trying to milk the cash cow more efficiently and extract the maximum possible profit from their declining customer base.
And no, this doesn't mean that GW will collapse overnight. Most of their shareholders probably have no clue about GW's products and just look at the financial report, so it will probably be a while before they run out of ways to cover up the bad numbers and see a real collapse in stock prices. For example, the next financial report will include a sales spike from 7th edition, so it will probably look a lot better than a "normal" report and that will keep the shareholders happy a bit longer. But I wouldn't bet anything on GW's long-term future.
That's what Enron, Lehman Brothers, Eaton said as well before they go bankrupt. Here's the real fact. No one can predict with 100% confident when a company goes under. But we can all gauge to a small degree on how well a company is doing. Just ask yourself, are you still spending thousands of dollars buying new gw products from gw and flgs? Is there an increase of new 40k players in your area? Are current warhammer players still playing the game? Or switching to other games and selling their armies?
For example I still buy the new rule book. But the price of models deterred me from buying new armies. And I actively pursued interested friends not to buy into 40k and play x-wing instead.
Sad thing is if GW lowered there prices on all the models I guarantee that they would generate a lot more business. Never understood why so many businesses ignore that fact. GW will be alright, they are still a very popular game and will be for a long time to come (I hope).
Toofast wrote: Why would a company with no debt and £9mil in the bank that still turns a profit month after month and year after year be in any danger of going under?
Because they have maintained what profitability they have by cutting costs. And they're running out of things to trim.
Games Day is gone. Stores have been reduced to ridiculous one-man affairs and where possible moved to cheaper locations. More and more of their product range has been shifted to Direct Only to cut down on inventory and production costs. Multiple products have been shifted into single, combined boxes to similarly cut down on inventory and production costs. Less-profitable lines have just been dropped. Regional offices have been closed or shrunk. US manufacturing has been stopped, with everything brought back in-house in Nottingham or outsourced to China. Tournament support and running their own events other than in-house stuff at Warhammer World has pretty much ceased. Website content has been reduced. Metal production has been replaced with cheaper (but somehow more expensive at retail) 'Fine'cast.
It's hard to see where else they can trim in order to keep propping up their falling sales volumes.
Yes, profits are down. This is the age of unemployment, recession and new video game systems.
And yet outside of GW's ivory tower, the wargames industry is booming.
Warmahordes keeps getting bigger. Despite everyone's predictions on seeing the standard of their original releases, Mantic keeps plugging away there and releasing new stuff. Warzone (which was in the '90s the biggest competitor for 40K) has made a return. Infinity, Malifaux, and a whole host of miniatures ranges from small companies that a decade ago wouldn't have lasted 10 minutes have just popped up out of nowhere. As of last September, 9 out of the 50 biggest Kickstarters of all time were gaming-related.
SciFi/Fantasy wargaming as a whole has never been in a better place.
And yet GW are struggling.
Yet somehow (price gouging), they are able to remain profitable,
...by reducing costs and raising prices...
continue paying dividends to shareholders...
...by borrowing money...
and fill the bathtub almost as fast as it leaks.
...with the emphasis on 'almost'.
I know most of us would love to see GW sold off to someone else.
I couldn't care less who owns GW.
What I would like to see is for GW to start paying attention to what everyone else in the industry is doing instead of hiding behind Kirby's moat and castle wall and just releasing whatever they feel like on the assumption that people will buy it because it has a GW logo on it.
I've been playing 40K for 20 years now. I don't hope for GW's demise. I would like nothing better than to have an 8th edition (I think I've pretty much given up on 7th at this point) that I can enjoy as much as I enjoyed 2nd and 5th. I would like to see them producing books that their designers can be proud to put their names on. I would love to see them releasing models that I look at and say 'Wow, I must have that!' like I used to. I would love to see them go back to encouraging independant sellers and gaming groups to promote their products through campaigns and promotions. I would love to see them supporting a vibrant, healthy tournament circuit.
But going by their performance over the last 3 or 4 years, I don't see any of that happening. Their self-absorbed, introspective approach to the gaming industry leaves them stuck in a rut. Instead of innovating, they're just trying to keep the '90s alive by constantly re-releasing different versions of the same thing. There's only so many time you can release the same dated models with a few more skulls added on, or new editions of the same ruleset with a few sections completely changed and only a random selection of the actual problems fixed before people start to wonder if there might be something else out there that is a better use for their time.
I like a good chat about GW finances as good as any, but I'm struggling to see what this has to do with 40K specifically that makes it more appropriate here than General?
Other than this thread has already happened in General of course, and has kinda gone as far as it can until the next set of figures is published.
Just ask yourself, are you still spending thousands of dollars buying new gw products from gw and flgs?
Well let's tally it up. I moved to Hoover Alabama 2 months ago. I found out there's a GW 1/4 mile down the street from my house so I stopped in to see if I was interested in getting back into it. I was. I bought about 15 pots of paint, a new SW codex, 7th rules, basing material, large army case, land raider crusader, rhino, drop pod, terminator rune priest and some various other stuff. I just pre ordered the storm claw box. I think I'm around $750 in 2 months. I usually go in Wednesday morning when the new shipment comes in. Each week I watch the manager unload 5-10 boxes just of preorders. Last Saturday a friend ran the store due to the manager being out of town. He hit the numbers they expected for the whole weekend by halfway through the day on saturday. I wouldn't exactly say they're struggling to make sales.
Is there an increase of new 40k players in your area?
Yes. Most of the guys in our current league are fairly new players or old players with new armies. We have about 10-15 guys just in the "new player/army" category and those are just the regulars.
Are current warhammer players still playing the game?
Some have switched to other games but even at the local FLGS it's 60-70% 40k, 10-20% WFB and the rest a mixture of Xwing and PP games.
Or switching to other games and selling their armies?
I've seen a lot of armies traded around between players due to getting tired/bored of playing the same army but I don't see a mass migration to other games.
Automatically Appended Next Post: To be fair, the results I'm seeing most likely have a lot to do with the area I live in. The median income here is over $80k but the cost of living is comparatively cheap. A nice 1 bedroom apartment here is $500-600 a month while you can get a nice house for $100-150k. I moved from Dublin Ohio where the median income was closer to $90k a year but it was $800-1000 a month for a decent 1 bedroom apartment and $200-250k for a nice house. Perhaps in areas with lower income / higher cost of living, 40k is losing popularity. Not sure if I'm supposed to say this publicly but numbers wise, the GW here averaged $1,200 a week last June. This June it averaged over $2,600 a week. Some of it can be attributed to the new rule set but I'm sure they aren't selling $1,400 a week in rule books so there's obviously new blood coming in and buying stuff. It also hasn't moved to a cheaper area. The area near the Galleria mall has the highest rent of all commercial property in the Birmingham area.
I wasnt, I was simply answering the questions asked by another poster. I am fully aware that the numbers of one GW in an upscale area in the middle of an economic boom have virtually zero affect on the financial health of an international company with hundreds of their own stores and thousands of FLGS stocking their products.
Toofast wrote: Is there an increase of new 40k players in your area?
No, any new gains have been in other games from what I've seen. Word of mouth turning hugely against GW has a lot to do with that.
Are current warhammer players still playing the game?
No, they're playing a number of other games and most have sold some or all of their stuff. I'm the only one still buying 40k somewhat due to being a modeler more than a gamer.
Regarding tabletop gaming in Australia, from one of the two largest online shops we have:
The Combat Company wrote:We are getting lots of questions about the Dystopian Wars v2 releases. These have been hugely popular. The book has out sold 40k v7 6:1. Stock is arriving and we are shipping first order in first order out. Please be patient and rest assured your orders will be sent ASAP.
Having your new edition outsold 6:1 like that is pretty damning. May be worse here in Aus due to regional pricing, but that alone is worth noting anyway.
I figured Australia would be almost done with 40k considering it has always cost twice as much there as it does almost anywhere else. Any reason the prices are so insane there?
The underlying reason is that the prices were set years ago when the Aus dollar was very low, at 60% of the $US. It's now close to parity. The result is GW pocketing the 30-50% difference. It wouldn't have continued so long if people weren't encouraging it however so we're the ones to blame for putting up with it (I haven't given GWAU a cent at least). It doesn't help that the main Australian tabletop gaming forum doesn't allow mentioning of non-sponsors on the site, which means they're basically enforcing GWs regional pricing for them which I've said on there is fething ridiculous.
A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.
There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.
Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.
Toofast wrote: . Any reason the prices are so insane there?
Because they're still setting their prices based on the exchange rate from a decade ago.
But don't worry, GW are working on levelling the playing field by 'freezing' most Oz prices and raising the rest of the world to match. From the last 6-12 months or so it's generally only books (and digital downloads, because reasons) that are still crazily more expensive than overseas.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
milkboy wrote: There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.
Stock price is not a reliable gauge of the actual health of a company. It's just a gauge of the stock market's perception of the health of a company.
Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.
It's been mentioned in their financial reports on more than one occasion that they had borrowed money to pay dividends.
milkboy wrote: A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.
There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.
Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.
Well.. seeing as we're doing this.
Dismissing "anecdotal" evidence with the weight behind it that can be discovered by spending some time in the online community is folly. Especially when it is borne out by hard evidence (GW figures have been effectively flat for a number of years, until Jan this year, when they took a steep decline.)
Stock price is utterly irrelevant with regard to the financial health of a company, it is a reflection of what the market thinks the state of the company is, not how it really is.
The stock price is also artificially inflated right now, not because GW have done a single thing different, but because they announced a (modest) dividend, and then set a date you needed to own stock by in order to qualify for it. What do you know, the stock price spiked?
One cannot read too much into store closures either, unless they start to happen in significant quantities. Many businesses will routinely close a branch that isn't really performing when the lease expires, or simply move elsewhere to take advantage of better premises or lease terms, GW has not shown the sort of behaviour one would expect from a company in imminent danger with regard to it's store openings and closures, just a typical pattern for a chain retailer.
There are numerous indicators that GW is under increasing financial pressures, and is aware of that. There's also a reasonable case to be made that nobody in a position to affect change in senior management really knows what to do to solve the problem, but it's late, I'm tired, so rather than retread even more old ground, I suggest you have a search for one of the several, lengthy, threads that have occurred since the last interim report in January.
stopcallingmechief wrote: Not trying to crap all over australia but when your minimum wage is $16 and its $10 in canada and what, $7 something in america things will and should cost more.
Minimum wages are irrelevant to whether or not people should be charged a fair price. But we don't need to derail another thread with the same old arguments about equal pricing in a global market.
milkboy wrote: A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.
There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.
Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.
Well.. seeing as we're doing this.
Dismissing "anecdotal" evidence with the weight behind it that can be discovered by spending some time in the online community is folly. Especially when it is borne out by hard evidence (GW figures have been effectively flat for a number of years, until Jan this year, when they took a steep decline.)
Stock price is utterly irrelevant with regard to the financial health of a company, it is a reflection of what the market thinks the state of the company is, not how it really is.
I was referring to anecdotal evidence of posters reporting what they see around them. Their sampling is definitely inadequate to put a number as to whether the overall pool of GW players are increasing or decreasing. At least financial reports have figures to them that are more concrete. As to how much you can infer from them, it's up to the individual.
If stock prices are utterly irrelevant to a financial health of a company, I can't see many companies being concerned about their stock prices.
Insaniak, I went through the 2012-2013 financial report but I could not find the reference of borrowed money. Could you point out the section please? Or the appropriate report that you saw it in.
milkboy wrote: A lot of things mentioned here are at best anecdotal and do not prove general trends. There could be places which are gaining players and there could be places which are losing players. There could also be shops which sell GW products/rule books like hotcakes and some which hardly move GW stock.
There are some which are closer to factual details which could answer the question. Such as stock price, and what was mentioned about store closures which may indicate the financial woes are building up. Those are probably a far more reliable metric than what you see selling around you.
Insaniak, you mentioned about borrowing money. This is one information I had not read about. Could you elaborate? This sounds interesting to know more about.
Well.. seeing as we're doing this.
Dismissing "anecdotal" evidence with the weight behind it that can be discovered by spending some time in the online community is folly. Especially when it is borne out by hard evidence (GW figures have been effectively flat for a number of years, until Jan this year, when they took a steep decline.)
Stock price is utterly irrelevant with regard to the financial health of a company, it is a reflection of what the market thinks the state of the company is, not how it really is.
I was referring to anecdotal evidence of posters reporting what they see around them. Their sampling is definitely inadequate to put a number as to whether the overall pool of GW players are increasing or decreasing. At least financial reports have figures to them that are more concrete. As to how much you can infer from them, it's up to the individual.
If stock prices are utterly irrelevant to a financial health of a company, I can't see many companies being concerned about their stock prices.
Insaniak, I went through the 2012-2013 financial report but I could not find the reference of borrowed money. Could you point out the section please? Or the appropriate report that you saw it in.
It's from longer ago than last year, not sure exactly, but circa 2008 sort of time frame.
Of course Companies worry about stock price, that isn't what I said was it? What I said was they are irrelevant with regard to financial health. If I were CEO of a struggling company, let alone one who owned a large piece of it like Tom Kirby, you can bet damn sure I would be worried about the stock price, but there is no necessary correlation between the two.
As for the anecdotal stuff, it isn't inadequate when you are on a large online community like Dakka, where people from all over the world are reporting similar trends, and that also jives with official reports and material, and feedback from people like Mikhalia who runs a large FLGS company and also corroborates the same. One person, one store = bad info. One person, one store x 100 different instances = much more plausible, although I agree I wouldn't bet the farm on just that info.
Whether it's a quick collapse or a drawn-out death spiral, unless something changes it seems as though yeah, GW is on the way out. They're rapidly losing market share in a booming industry, they've lost a lot of customer good will and what remains is only bleeding out quicker as GW continues the trend of milking the remaining customers to pay for those leaving (see the thread on ebook prices going up). The release of 7th 2 years early to blatantly try to redeem the years financial results has cannibalized a lot of future sales.
I think that enough for their customers really will keep buying at pretty much any price that they'll keep revenues flat while the actual number of people buying, and the amount of miniatures they get for their money will continue to shrink.
I think they will continue to be able to cut costs fast enough to manage their decline and segmentation from the larger hobby gaming market.
In the next financial report, I think we'll see revenue continue to slide ever so slightly, but we'll see the greatest proportion of their cost cutting savings from closing down regional HQs and cutting administration staff in line with their production staff cuts of the past.
Their dividend payment might have been out of line with their profit and cash position, so it's entirely possible that they will both be profitable and be forced to borrow money to cover their dividend.
GW has pretty much been managing a decline since the LOTR bubble and will continue to do so.
The end result for their customers though, will be prices that continue to spiral up. You'll get less actual product for the same amount of money, but enough of you are true believers in 40k enough that you'll keep buying at full retail. And now with unbound, every new release can be sold to every customer rather than having them wait for armies they already play to get updates. Every codex released will be split into more supplements with day 1 DLC that enough of you will buy to keep GW nicely profitable. If where they would have previously sold everyone a $25 codex, they can now sell $100 worth of codexes, supplements and DLC, they actually only need a quarter of the customers buying to make the same amount of money. And at some cost savings as well.
Games workshop needs to put a serious focus into their marketing and advertising area I mean where else do you see gw products other than games workshop now a days for people who have never heard of the games. Even look at what they're doing to the FLGS's they aren't even Allowed to show their prices and have carts without going through a significant process of emailing the company to find it out. All in all they just need to get the word out that they exist build some awesome hobby centers with fancy new terrain and tables and put the word out anywhere they can and have anybody that wants to come in come in to try it out
frozenwastes wrote: If where they would have previously sold everyone a $25 codex, they can now sell $100 worth of codexes, supplements and DLC, they actually only need a quarter of the customers buying to make the same amount of money.
And in the long run that strategy is just slightly less suicidal than shooting yourself in the head. 40k, like other games, is a social activity where "what are my friends playing" is a dominant factor in a potential customer's choice of products to buy. If GW decide to throw away 75% of their market share many of those customers are going to start playing other games and recruiting their friends to join them. The result is a death spiral where GW goes from being the default game that everyone plays because it's what everyone is playing to struggling to get a handful of new customers as stores don't even bother hosting 40k night anymore because nobody shows up. GW would have one good financial report to brag about their "success", and be bankrupt and sold to WOTC before the next one.
Unless GW start owing more money than they have, I doubt they'll go under.
If they start making less than they are paying for all their stores, they can always just close their stores.
I could definitely see 40k becoming a small specialist game, and GW reverting to a smaller operation, but not GW going under completely.
Of course, if the higher ups decide they want to cash out and sell to a bigger company who will close them down if they can't turn enough of a product, sure, then I could see them closing down. Or if they owe people tons of money and can't shrink their operation without dooming themselves, then they might go under.
Even when you look at the big fall in stock price they had earlier this year, they have recovered somewhat and in the context of their history, it's really not that significant.
IMHOGW shot themselves in the foot a few years ago. They tried to trim costs by closing most of their stores because they were returning low profit, or even deficit. I have some experience with specialty stores, i used to be a manager at a lego store. The specialty stores arent there to return huge amounts of profits, neither are events like gameday. The only two months out of the year we made money was november and december, amd january we went in red until march or april. The stores are there for exposure, to strike interest, amd to create a community. Now that a lot of their locations are closed and they rely on third party retailers to move stock, this element is missing. Now i am forced to go to the local hobby shop and suddenly i am exposed to new wargaming systems. Most of them a lot cheaper than gw. And this is where the problem comes full circle.
I am not a market analyst, nor a gw expert, therefore i will not venture to guess at whether it faulter or save itself
It is the question that is the problem here. There are to many variables.
Now, if you ask, "Do you think GW's current / old business model will fail?". then my answer would be,"If they are not taking steps to move to a more modern strategy, then most assuredly, Yes"..
I have felt and openly stated for about 5 years now that GW is aware that upcoming technologies are making their current business model obsolete. The advent of 3d printing/ rapid prototyping machines at affordable costs guarantees that GW's current out-dated business model will fail in the near future.. This is why GW has been price gouging/ soaking their customers for every penny possible. GW is soaking their customers for cash before they either sell out or switch to a modern business model that is proving to be working.
Let me explain my position,
There are several miniature / games companies that are currently thriving. Why?
Is it because their models are cheaper?.....No, though PP sells some pewter kits at the same price GW sells their plastic kits.
Is it because these companies have massive ad campaigns?.........No. Some are currently providing much better prize support for indy tournies, though.
Is it because these companies are more successfully leveraging their IP into video games?....No. Which begs the question as to why GW is not growing.
Is it a customer service issue? Partially yes. GW could and should be doing a much better job of both relating to their customers and improving their corporate image.(suing individuals over the use of a generic term makes them look like bullies. As a modern multi-national corp, they should:
a) know better
b) have expected to loose the case
and
c) Known their actions would be viewed negatively.
Is all of the above enough to explain why GW is diminishing so rapidly? No. While such would explain a certain margin of under-performance in their market, the above issues (imo) are not what is really causing the current landslide.
I know. I am saying things that is probably p-ing off some of you, but please bear with me.
What do "I" consider the problem with their current business model?
Easy, it is unsustainable....... Now, I am not just talking about unsustainable from a corporate pov. I am also, talking about the unsustainable expectations that GW is placing upon their customer base.
Now let us ask, "Why, is GW's business model unsustainable?
GW is still using a mass production "sell as many of the same model as possible" plan. Sounds like common sense,"Doesn't it?". Well yeah, for the 1990's, but we are now in 2014.
The problem with this "old think" business model is that it drives the game design department,.... which ends up forcing more models into a game system and market not designed for such.
To compound this problem, the business model also ends up pushing for a faster and faster release schedule.
These actions lead to an expectation that their customers buy many copies of the same expensive models. This in turn encourages cloners/ recasters to use the new technologies in a way that provides "affordability" to the customer base that would not other-wise be there.
These actions, also force the customers to try and not only keep up with a higher rate of purchases but also a faster rate of purchases.
Why does the rate matter so much?
Well, aside from many customers dropping out of the GW family because they can no longer afford it.......
This creates a big issue in that the customers no longer have the "time" to properly paint their models. Think about this. Think about the increased number of unpainted armies and unfinished collections that are given up on because the customers just don't have the time to get the army they want to build ready before it becomes obsolete. I am not talking about whether an army is competitive but that the equipment glued on the models are no longer a valid option for that unit.
When customers look around at several unfinished theme armies that they never go to play, more than a few will bow out.
Well, then what business model would work?
I think that we will see a move towards PP's business model but with a few key differences.
That when the 3-d printing / rapid prototyping machinery becomes so affordable that almost anyone can afford one, GW will / should create a version of 40K or change 40K to a much lower model count system that expects to sell only one of each type model and embraces that idea.
That GW will instead sell 3-d model templates and will use the rapid proto-typing tech to keep adding new models and factions.
By writing rules that keep model redundancy to a minimum GW will reduce both loss to re-casters cloning their products and legal costs of defending their IP.
Now, if GW does none of this and expects their current business methods to weather the storm of upheaval that this early "replicator" technology will create. Then I think that such inflexibility will lead to them breaking and falling like a tall old tree in a wind storm.
If a business has the cash, the growth potential, and the licensing and business deals but no customers, it'll go out of business. The customers are the most important bit really.
I think GW has been shedding hobbyists impressively fast, something that's hidden by an enviable profit margin and various schemes they've been doing.
I'm still uncertain if when the few 'common man' hobbyists who are still into GW leave it'll cause GW to go away or not. I think there is a decent chance of there being a very small number of crazy, eternally obsessive fanboys who are willing to spend any amount of money for their Hobby, despite all kinds of terrible issues. They might even keep the entire company afloat. I hope not, really.
focusedfire wrote: The problem with this "old think" business model is that it drives the game design department,.... which ends up forcing more models into a game system and market not designed for such.
This isn't true at all. Having a game where you buy lots of models doesn't have anything to do with GW's game design issues. The rules to 40k suck because the authors are lazy and/or incompetent and think that it's ok to publish rough drafts and scream "BEER AND PRETZELS FORGE THE NARRATIVE" everywhere as if making a "casual" or "narrative" game excuses bad design work. It would be possible to make a large-scale game that sells lots of models without having any of 40k's rule problems, GW's authors just aren't capable of doing it.
To compound this problem, the business model also ends up pushing for a faster and faster release schedule.
And neither is this. GW had the same game with a much slower release schedule for years/decades, it's only recently that we've seen a major increase in the rate of new releases. It has nothing to do with any inherent qualities of 40k's design, it's a desperate attempt to milk the cash cow harder by rushing out new products as fast as possible and hoping that short-term sales offset the customers who get tired of it and quit. And the pace is increased even more by day-1 DLC that creates separate new releases out of things that normally would have been in the codex, another desperate milking of the cash cow.
This in turn encourages cloners/ recasters to use the new technologies in a way that provides "affordability" to the customer base that would not other-wise be there.
I seriously doubt that recasters are even a minor factor. Remember, GW's target market is younger kids buying stuff in GW stores. When a kid wants a box of space marines their parents are either going to buy one from the local GW store or not buy one at all, they aren't going to go on Chinese ebay looking for the best deal on recasts. So those recasts are only going to a small minority of players with both the detailed knowledge of the game required to know that recasts exist at all, and the lack of moral standards required to buy recasts. It's not great for GW, but there are much bigger things for them to worry about.
When customers look around at several unfinished theme armies that they never go to play, more than a few will bow out.
Most of GW's customers never even finish a single army. People with multiple armies are a small minority of dedicated collectors, not a major factor in GW's problems.
That when the 3-d printing / rapid prototyping machinery becomes so affordable that almost anyone can afford one
And this is complete speculation. 3d printing isn't even close to that point yet, and there's no guarantee that it will ever reach it. GW has much bigger problems to worry about right now, problems that make it questionable whether they'll even survive long enough to see 3d printers that are a viable threat to their business model.
By writing rules that keep model redundancy to a minimum GW will reduce both loss to re-casters cloning their products and legal costs of defending their IP.
Err, no, they really won't. If recasters are a factor then what exactly do you think will happen when GW starts selling digital files instead of physical model kits? Every download site is going to have a copy of everything GW produces, and people who are willing to buy recasts will just pirate the files and print their own models for free.
They won't. GW's biggest market is newbies buying starter sets. If they lose market share and no longer get to be the default game that every new miniatures customer starts playing their sales will collapse, the shareholders will dump the company, and WOTC will buy them in the bankruptcy auction.
You said a lot of words and yet I didn't really catch any particular take home points from your post.
On the 3D printing thing though, it's very speculative. We are a long way off having printers in the home that can print models of GW's scale to any acceptable level. It may never even happen. Even when you think of 2D printers, not all that many people got printers that were so good that photograph printing places went out of business. I think we'll see the same with 3D printers. Most people will realise that they don't need them in the house, at most they'll buy a cheap ones before realising they aren't actually that useful. The high end ones that can actually print a 28mm model sufficiently will be few and far between in homes.
3D printing means more for industry than it does for actual homes IMO.
I've said this for a while and often get replies like "but imagine the possibilities!" and I reply "what possibilities?" and am met with either silence or unrealistic ideals
No, but they're pushing an unsustainable model. They're being propped up with massive cost cutting, and are more interested in short term sales than long term stability.
They're on a downward spiral. And have been for the last two or three years. Short term? Yeah, they're not going anywhere, if you ask me. But In five to ten years? Different story, I think.
How many models would you have to print to break even on a 3D printer good enough to replicate the detail of GW models? I'm guessing you could build a 4k point army including paints, rule books, codex/supplements for cheaper than a 3D printer good enough to replicate GW models. Also there's the fact that you won't be able to play tournaments or at your local GW store with 3D printed models. Anyone hard core enough to buy a high end 3D printer most likely wants to be able to use their army in those types of settings at least sometimes. High quality home printers haven't exactly put MTG out of business for those same reasons.
Toofast wrote: Also there's the fact that you won't be able to play tournaments or at your local GW store with 3D printed models.
This is one thing that won't be a factor. If 3d printing is ever good enough to match the quality of current GW models (and it will have to be for anyone to be interested in using it) there will be absolutely no way to tell the difference between a painted 3d printed model and a painted GW model, just like there's no way to tell the difference between a recast and a real model.
(Well, as long as it's not a finecast model, in which case the recast would be obvious because it doesn't have as many casting flaws!)
focusedfire wrote:The problem with this "old think" business model is that it drives the game design department,.... which ends up forcing more models into a game system and market not designed for such.
This isn't true at all. Having a game where you buy lots of models doesn't have anything to do with GW's game design issues. The rules to 40k suck because the authors are lazy and/or incompetent and think that it's ok to publish rough drafts and scream "BEER AND PRETZELS FORGE THE NARRATIVE" everywhere as if making a "casual" or "narrative" game excuses bad design work. It would be possible to make a large-scale game that sells lots of models without having any of 40k's rule problems, GW's authors just aren't capable of doing it.
I'll try to bear with your highly aggressive and mis-informed arguments.
A) GW admits to being a model company first and game company second. This is an admission that model sales drive the game design, not the other way around. If you can understand this then the fact that each new edition and codex not only pushes for thew customers to abandon their last army but encourages the spamming of what ever is the hot new kit.
B) Don't mistake corporate speak like "Forge the Narrative" as a sign of laziness or incompetence. They are just words to mask a profit based corporate decision in something that the customers will find less objectionable.
C)GW has, over the years, repeatedly said that the rules of 40K and how they play are not much of a concern to them. Why? As long as they sell models, is the only thing that matters to GW.
D) In order to make a large scale game that works GW would have to either drop to 15mm scale or put a cap on the number of models allowed on the table per turn. You think GW will ever do either of those? Why do you think that GW has been introducing the low model count "Warjack" heavy factions? Did I say "Warjack"? Oh uh cough* cough* I mean apoc level mini-titans called "Knights" .
Peregrine wrote:
focusedfire wrote:To compound this problem, the business model also ends up pushing for a faster and faster release schedule.
And neither is this. GW had the same game with a much slower release schedule for years/decades, it's only recently that we've seen a major increase in the rate of new releases. It has nothing to do with any inherent qualities of 40k's design, it's a desperate attempt to milk the cash cow harder by rushing out new products as fast as possible and hoping that short-term sales offset the customers who get tired of it and quit. And the pace is increased even more by day-1 DLC that creates separate new releases out of things that normally would have been in the codex, another desperate milking of the cash cow.
Which goes towards my point that GW is grabbing what money they can before the current business model becomes completely obsolete. Now, you could maybe argue the GW is so short sighted that they can only see or have only planned as far ahead as the cash grab. But, you cannot argue that they have recently stepped up both the number of models expected for the customers to use in the game and a faster release schedule.
Also, every edition has pushed or tried to push the model count up. Why? So the customers have to buy more models. I shouldn't even have to point this out.
Peregrine wrote:
focusedfire wrote:[This in turn encourages cloners/ recasters to use the new technologies in a way that provides "affordability" to the customer base that would not other-wise be there.
I seriously doubt that recasters are even a minor factor. Remember, GW's target market is younger kids buying stuff in GW stores. When a kid wants a box of space marines their parents are either going to buy one from the local GW store or not buy one at all, they aren't going to go on Chinese ebay looking for the best deal on recasts. So those recasts are only going to a small minority of players with both the detailed knowledge of the game required to know that recasts exist at all, and the lack of moral standards required to buy recasts. It's not great for GW, but there are much bigger things for them to worry about.
A) Re-casters and the upcoming tech are a huge concern. As is the Chinese factories keeping the molds that were sent over there a few years back when GW tried to sneak a fair bit of their production to the cheap labor. If you wonder why some of the chinese stuff is so close to GW's stuff it is because they are using the same equipment that GW uses and have more than a few of GW's old molds.
B)GW's primary target hasn't been the "younger kids" for a while now. At least not since the economic collapse of 2007-2008. If you look at their releases since that time they have moved more and more towards rules and codices designed for someone to update an existing army or collection. Why do I say this? Because GW moved from releases that gave a new player a playable start in the game for $250-$400, to here update your army with these 3 new units that will cost about $300 - $500.
Just a note here-With only a single caveat, there is not nor has there ever been a single successful business model based on telling your existing customer base to bugger off in favor of trying to bring in new customers. The exception being when your existing customer base is a liability (Read 1980's yuppification of the Harley Davidson brand where they actively discouraged any connection to the 1%ers / Outlaw Bikers).
Rest of the time you want the positive word of mouth and guaranteed return clients.
C)Parents have not been buying GW products for their children for a variety of reasons since the start of the "Great Recession". This is why the community stopped growing. Parents are increasingly more put off by the hyper-violent setting and it is cheaper to give little timmy a game for the console he got for Christmas, Birthday, Channukah, Parents splitting up or what ever other reason.
D)When a company is failing to grow their client base faster than they are losing customers and the few kids coming in are cash strapped and internet savvy.....recasts become a vedry real concern for GW. Not saying that those buying re-casts are wrong, just that GW's business model and likely 1000% mark up over cost leaves them open to be undercut.
Peregrine wrote:
focusedfire wrote:When customers look around at several unfinished theme armies that they never go to play, more than a few will bow out.
Most of GW's customers never even finish a single army. People with multiple armies are a small minority of dedicated collectors, not a major factor in GW's problems.
Source please.
If you mean that someone buys some model for somebody else as a present and that the majority of those individuals never do anything with them then I agree.
But if you are talking about someone who has become sold on the idea then I would disagree.
And as I pointed out above, When your veterans are the ones keeping the profit in the margin, it becomes a real problem for GW if the stop playing / collecting.
Peregrine wrote:
focusedfire wrote:That when the 3-d printing / rapid prototyping machinery becomes so affordable that almost anyone can afford one
And this is complete speculation. 3d printing isn't even close to that point yet, and there's no guarantee that it will ever reach it. GW has much bigger problems to worry about right now, problems that make it questionable whether they'll even survive long enough to see 3d printers that are a viable threat to their business model.
It is already here. The new rapid proto-typing tech is affordable enough for small start-up business. The hardware is there, the software for rapidly converting scans to a printable 3-d matrix is in place. Only thing the industry is waiting for is the next generation of designers to be trained in such.
Remember, they don't have to print the model, they can use an inverse function to put plastic everywhere the model is not to create the first molds.
Peregrine wrote:
focusedfire wrote:]By writing rules that keep model redundancy to a minimum GW will reduce both loss to re-casters cloning their products and legal costs of defending their IP.
Err, no, they really won't. If recasters are a factor then what exactly do you think will happen when GW starts selling digital files instead of physical model kits? Every download site is going to have a copy of everything GW produces, and people who are willing to buy recasts will just pirate the files and print their own models for free.
It comes down to the profits of large scale versus small scale production. When the tech hits the point that many will have such printers in their homes then the customers will have no reason to spend the money or effort ordering from a re-caster.
Will their still be piracy? Yes but as long as GW keeps their mark-up with in reason and continues to turn out desirable new artwork, there just won't be much motivation for people to pirate the materials.
focusedfire wrote: A) GW admits to being a model company first and game company second. This is an admission that model sales drive the game design, not the other way around. If you can understand this then the fact that each new edition and codex not only pushes for thew customers to abandon their last army but encourages the spamming of what ever is the hot new kit.
Except:
1) GW saying stupid stuff doesn't make it true. They're a game company, regardless of whether they try to pretend otherwise to get people to stop criticizing their rules.
2) GW doesn't effectively use power creep to sell new models. For example, how many copies of the Taurox or DA flyer have they sold? Why are Tau and Eldar more powerful than more recent codices? There are probably a lot of balance problems caused by the rule author wanting to do something cool and not bothering to playtest enough to realize how broken it is, but I seriously doubt there is a policy of making things overpowered to sell them.
B) Don't mistake corporate speak like "Forge the Narrative" as a sign of laziness or incompetence. They are just words to mask a profit based corporate decision in something that the customers will find less objectionable.
No, it's laziness and incompetence. GW's idiot rule authors can't write good rules, so they publish garbage and scream "FORGE THE NARRATIVE" to try to pretend that their garbage is actually amazing work. The problems with GW's rules don't help sell the models, they just make it a bad game.
C)GW has, over the years, repeatedly said that the rules of 40K and how they play are not much of a concern to them. Why? As long as they sell models, is the only thing that matters to GW.
And anyone who isn't an absolute ing idiot knows that good rules help sell models. GW just doesn't have anyone capable of writing good rules, so they take a "casual at all costs" attitude and pretend that only TFGs demand better quality.
D) In order to make a large scale game that works GW would have to either drop to 15mm scale or put a cap on the number of models allowed on the table per turn. You think GW will ever do either of those? Why do you think that GW has been introducing the low model count "Warjack" heavy factions? Did I say "Warjack"? Oh uh cough* cough* I mean apoc level mini-titans called "Knights" .
This is not true. Granted, certain things probably work better at smaller scale fluff-wise, but 40k could be a much better game without changing scale or model types at all.
Which goes towards my point that GW is grabbing what money they can before the current business model becomes completely obsolete. Now, you could maybe argue the GW is so short sighted that they can only see or have only planned as far ahead as the cash grab. But, you cannot argue that they have recently stepped up both the number of models expected for the customers to use in the game and a faster release schedule.
But you're missing the point. GW's aggressive milking of the cash cow has nothing to do with game design or how many models you're supposed to put on the table. If GW made Warmachine they'd be doing the exact same thing with new releases.
A) Re-casters and the upcoming tech are a huge concern. As is the Chinese factories keeping the molds that were sent over there a few years back when GW tried to sneak a fair bit of their production to the cheap labor. If you wonder why some of the chinese stuff is so close to GW's stuff it is because they are using the same equipment that GW uses and have more than a few of GW's old molds.
Do you actually have any sales numbers to support this claim? What percentage of GW's sales are going to recasters?
B)GW's primary target hasn't been the "younger kids" for a while now.
Take a look at their financial reports and investor guide, where they openly state that this is their target market. And look at how they continue to operate GW stores aimed at that market instead of dropping the retail division and letting independent stores (which older customers favor) handle all of it.
Just a note here-With only a single caveat, there is not nor has there ever been a single successful business model based on telling your existing customer base to bugger off in favor of trying to bring in new customers.
Well yes, this is one reason why GW is not being a successful business right now.
Source please.
Go to your local gaming store and count how many people have even finished one army. And then realize that these are the dedicated players who have stayed in the game long enough to play in stores.
It is already here. The new rapid proto-typing tech is affordable enough for small start-up business. The hardware is there, the software for rapidly converting scans to a printable 3-d matrix is in place. Only thing the industry is waiting for is the next generation of designers to be trained in such.
No, it really isn't here. Printers that are even close to capable of matching the quality of real models are incredibly expensive and still fall short.
Remember, they don't have to print the model, they can use an inverse function to put plastic everywhere the model is not to create the first molds.
...
This is a joke, right? You do realize that the molds for plastic kits are cut from steel blocks and have to survive high pressure + temperature, right? If you try to 3d print your own molds you're just going to end up with a big mess and a lot of wasted plastic.
Will their still be piracy? Yes but as long as GW keeps their mark-up with in reason and continues to turn out desirable new artwork, there just won't be much motivation for people to pirate the materials.
So let me get this straight: enough people will BUY recasts from Chinese ebay to put GW in real danger of failing, but somehow those people won't just pirate FREE downloads of GW's 3d printing files? I really have no idea how you think those two claims are consistent.
I actually think GW might have a chance to turn it back around here. The 7th Edition book is a big step up in quality from previous efforts, and the Wood Elves releases were a bit cheaper than the Dwarfs that came before them. We can only wait and see going forward, but I have a little faith for once.
Your first post was... interesting, but your second post is all over the place with bad information and weird assumptions. Peregrine covered things pretty well, but just as a round-up:
- you seem to miss what was meant about how the rules of a game can be well or poorly designed to match the "scale" of the battle (as in force sizes/number of models the rules work best with, not physical scale at all - 40k could have smoother, better gameplay and still sell huge armies of 28mm models if improving the rules was actually a design goal)
- you put way too much faith in GW's ability to predict the effects of their own rules (the old saw about "new/unpopular models are always OP to increase sales" should be debunked a hundred times over by now, there's no rhyme or reason to which codexes will be powerful or which models within them will be buffed or nerfed - for every new Riptide there are probably several new Pyrovores or Mutilators whose rules are terrible beyond comprehension).
- you have a very skewed perception of the impact recasters and third party bits makers actually have on GW (recasters probably do hurt Forgeworld for a number of reasons, but no one is effectively knocking off GW's plastics - the low quality Chinese recasts of plastic sprues barely show up on the radar for even the most veteran gamers, let alone the bulk of GW's player base)
- you don't really seem to understand 3D printing, the costs and limitations of the various printing technologies available, or how miniatures design/manufacturing companies actually use them; ditto for 3D scanners (3D printing as a manufacturing process is not a threat to high quality mass produced miniatures and won't be for many, many years, if ever)
- you ESPECIALLY don't understand casting or injection molding (3D printing is completely irrelevant for injection molding, and for casting is only used to make the first male copy of a model; it requires an extremely high quality printer, and if we're talking about replicating GW's models, it isn't even necessary - anyone can already make a mold of GW bits or figures and cast it themselves relatively cheaply, yet it isn't an issue - 3D printing won't affect this in the slightest)
I left 40k in 1993 came back in 2013 same old EXACT conversations... Let's be honest GW are the market leaders... The 'i can do what GW does n do it cheaper' belief has fuelled a lot of corpse companies... Bolt action / warmachine seemed to have bucked this trend... But imho they aren't 3% what gw does i am not biased in fact these 2 games got me looking and i repicked up GW.. Expensive? Yes. Holds / improves value upon painting?? Double yes. It's at worst an investment guys. Can see your GW spent money again? (For the most part) Yes. GW have not gone nuts on prices. They are 35% off to all 3rd parties resllers . So a reseller offering 20% off is still keeping 15%. Terminators were £27 for 10 in 1993... Now are about same for 5 now... Not a massive change in 20+ years... Plus they let them go for 35% off
ConanMan wrote: I left 40k in 1993 came back in 2013 same old EXACT conversations... Let's be honest GW are the market leaders... The 'i can do what GW does n do it cheaper' belief has fuelled a lot of corpse companies... Bolt action / warmachine seemed to have bucked this trend... But imho they aren't 3% what gw does i am not biased in fact these 2 games got me looking and i repicked up GW.. Expensive? Yes. Holds / improves value upon painting?? Double yes. It's at worst an investment guys. Can see your GW spent money again? (For the most part) Yes. GW have not gone nuts on prices. They are 35% off to all 3rd parties resllers . So a reseller offering 20% off is still keeping 15%. Terminators were £27 for 10 in 1993... Now are about same for 5 now... Not a massive change in 20+ years... Plus they let them go for 35% off
At one of the major cons last year, iirc privateer press made a statement that they had sales worth 15 to 20 million.
You are correct. They are no where near gw's level in terms of size or numbers, but they're still a big fish. Just thought you might like to know some actual figures (second hand, admittedly)
Plenty other miniature producing companies are very likely in the low to low-ish million in terms of sales.
I think that GW is on a self-destructive downward spiral. Whether or not that means they'll "go under" (which likely wouldn't happen anytime soon anyways) is another story, but their business practices are ridiculous, their entire marketing strategy is obsolete and ignorant, and they are basically pricing themselves out of the market by promoting this "luxury product" rubbish. It's extremely telling that while GW is slowly declining, miniature wargaming and all of their competitors are growing. They still have a long way to go to catch up to GW, of course, but when the industry leader is constantly shrinking it's more of the pie open to the competition.
When you raise prices, you often either do it slowly or offer the same value; GW lowers value (e.g. Dire Avengers getting reduced to 5 from 10 and *still* having the price go up) while at the same time encourages more figures - this is the opposite of what you should be doing, because it's basically charging your customers double for the same thing as before. It's a scam tactic.
2) The Parallels of GW and the last years of TSR by our own Wayshuba who, while I have no idea of the size of his company, is a business owner and executive so has insights into running a business that most of us do not: http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/584858.page
GW is definitely on the decline, and needs to do something to turn the ship around, because this outdated marketing style of refusing to take advantage of the internet, shunning the local gaming stores and simply cutting costs while raising prices is not sustainable longterm.
All hail the Emperor! OK, now that is out of the way, I love GW. Take a look at the game five years ago. Pretty decent set of rules, but they have evolved
in what I would call a positive direction. And the new model output is awesome in sculpting and new units. Necrons were pretty basic and got a major face lift. Dark Eldar went from
a joke that you couldn't sell to kids to a very stylish dark army. The quality of the books and art (photography, at least) is hugely improved. Terrain kits have emerged that you can
include in your army list.
Now I don't play other game systems and very few video games because A) I'm an old fart, and B) I'm quite happy building (and customizing) GW kits and playing the occasional game.
So will GW go out of business? Not likely unless we have the zombie apocalypse, (and I think some people suspect the zombies have already taken over Nottingham). Can't predict the future,
but you are in a golden era with this company now - high quality product (notice how the fabulous Finecast has disappeared?) and a world-wide franchise. Do you have to pay to play - well, Ja!
Suggestion if you think the prices are to high: divide your expenditures by the number of hours you spend on assembling and painting your models (assuming you paint, which you should), and
the hours you use those models in games. Tweek the numbers if you're heavily analytic. Bet you are coming out spending less than you would on a bouquet of flowers for your sweetie, with a tenuous
return for that expenditure... you will always have your minis.
Another reason GW's business model is unsustainable is the players.
GW is actively pushing out veteran players and at the same time, doing nothing to recruit new ones. GW does not advertise and relies on word of mouth. The word of mouth comes from veteran players. Only now, the word of mouth are usually bad words. No new players.
Don't keep current players. Don't get new players. As a business this is simply unsustainable. The only question is at what rate are they losing players and how long can they continue like this? I have no idea. It could be a few years, it could be a few decades, but eventually they'll run out of players.
MWHistorian wrote: Another reason GW's business model is unsustainable is the players.
GW is actively pushing out veteran players and at the same time, doing nothing to recruit new ones. GW does not advertise and relies on word of mouth. The word of mouth comes from veteran players. Only now, the word of mouth are usually bad words. No new players.
Don't keep current players. Don't get new players. As a business this is simply unsustainable. The only question is at what rate are they losing players and how long can they continue like this? I have no idea. It could be a few years, it could be a few decades, but eventually they'll run out of players.
This is my worry too.
One of the key selling points about GW (40K/WHFB) was the number of people who played it, many of them veterans of long years of involvement. These guys acted as recruiters and trainers of new players as well as providing a massive pool of potential opponents. How many times have you seen someone post, "I would like to play XXX game but I can't find anyone locally who plays it?"
You only have to look at DakkaDakka now compared to five years ago to see how many of these veterans have changed from being grumbling but still playing grognards to active players and promoters of alternatives.
GW have also thrown away a lot of the support they used to have from independent games shops, at the same time as reducing staff levels in their own outlets. All this adds up to more difficulty in promoting the games professionally.
Whether this has had a big effect is hard to say. GW's profits have been healthily climbing for five years, since the bad couple of years in the mid 2000s following the bursting of the LotR bubble.
However their revenues have been basically flat, despite a high rate of price increases. Codexes for example cost double what they did two years ago. If you are selling £130 million now, and two years ago you were selling £130 million at half the price, it is fairly obvious that you are now selling half as many units, so you probably have half as many customers.
Obviously this example is not true, because all the prices have not doubled in two years, but it shows the basic logic. So it seems that GW are selling the same value of stuff to fewer customers, with higher efficiency (because making fewer units to sell) and making more profit. High prices also form a barrier to entry for new players, and a barrier to continuing for veterans.
The question is whether the player base is really falling away, and at what point it might begin to collapse.
The Dec 2013 interim report showed a shock drop in sales and profits. The end of year report, due very soon, may or may not continue that trend. I think the release of 7th edition should have done well and make the numbers look pretty good. But it might be a false dawn.
All that said, GW have a lot of money in the bank. They are not going bankrupt in a year. If their current strategy proves to be false, they have some time and money to change things.
I think they are trying to change things. The Ork campaign books, for example. The policy of releasing mini-codexes (Knights, Stormtroopers) and dataslates, are all evidence of change.
Of course they could get it wrong. Lots of people didn't like 6th edition, and lots of them like 7th edition even less. If you don't like the core rules, you are much less likely t buy into campaign books and so on.
If you look at their stocks, MiniWarGaming.com, TheWarStore, And Ebay You will see there is more business than EVER before. Customers are not slowing down... Their sales are increasing!
MordorMiniatures wrote: If you look at their stocks, MiniWarGaming.com, TheWarStore, And Ebay You will see there is more business than EVER before. Customers are not slowing down... Their sales are increasing!
And a lot of those sales are going to GW's competitors, not to GW.
MordorMiniatures wrote: If you look at their stocks, MiniWarGaming.com, TheWarStore, And Ebay You will see there is more business than EVER before. Customers are not slowing down... Their sales are increasing!
After the third time in this thread, we should hopefully get some folks to grok what's happening.
And the uptick in eBay sales isn't good for GW. That is meaning more folks are selling off their gaming goods, such as myself. My last two armies are going on eBay tomorrow. I'm keeping my Grey Knights unless I get a large cash offer just because of the work I put into them. If/when GW finally collapses, I look forward to supporting the new company that picks up the IP and game products, assuming they actually listen to us and stop making the game a random pile of nonsense and stop devaluing the models left and right.
Peregrine wrote: And in the long run that strategy is just slightly less suicidal than shooting yourself in the head. 40k, like other games, is a social activity where "what are my friends playing" is a dominant factor in a potential customer's choice of products to buy.
The plus side of word of mouth advertising and going after those with money is that their peer groups will have similar resources. GW's market will shift to being more concentrated around locations where the relative wealth of the area's teens can support them. In the areas they will do well, people will have no problem finding opponents.
GW would have one good financial report to brag about their "success", and be bankrupt and sold to WOTC before the next one.
We'll see. I happen to think that they can segment their market enough from the larger miniature wargaming market. We're already hearing reports from people trying to get other games going that the local 40k players are reacting very, very negatively. Like they're in a protectionist or siege mind set where they're willing to see any non-GW competition as something that needs to be actively opposed because everyone of their group that gives those games a try is one less potential opponent. I think the true believers will entrench even further.
Would I rather this not work and GW be forced to return to something like their approach that grew them into an international company? Absolutely. But when I see in people's signature that they have 10,000 points of one army and 8,000 points of another, I think there are plenty of customers who will buy 2,500 points of one army and 2,000 points of another at ever inflating prices instead.
Peregrine wrote: And in the long run that strategy is just slightly less suicidal than shooting yourself in the head. 40k, like other games, is a social activity where "what are my friends playing" is a dominant factor in a potential customer's choice of products to buy.
The plus side of word of mouth advertising and going after those with money is that their peer groups will have similar resources. GW's market will shift to being more concentrated around locations where the relative wealth of the area's teens can support them. In the areas they will do well, people will have no problem finding opponents.
Why do you think it is price that is the primary reason for GW haemorrhaging customers? Anecdotal evidence from these many threads would put that factor as being in the middle to low end of people's "why I left GW" lists.
I would say not price, but value. The rulebooks go up in price without offering anything significant in terms of actual game worth. The models are being cut in numbers and raised in price; stealth price increases such as the massive Stompa being cheaper than the Imperial Knight. Stupid rules releases like codex pricing on a book containing 1 units with 2 wargear options, etc. etc. etc.
The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.
Why do you think it is price that is the primary reason for GW haemorrhaging customers?
I don't. I'm saying the price is not the barrier to everyone that it is to some. And that for whatever reason that people leave, the higher prices being paid by those who stay and new customers will continue to make up for it as GW slowly declines in a controlled fashion which allows for cost cutting to provide a cushion on their margins.
I'm saying that if GW ends up with a quarter of the customers they had a decade ago, if the quadruple their prices from that point and watch their costs like a hawk, they can stay profitable and keep paying out Kirby his £400,000 a half in dividends until some sort of merger or sale can be organized and he can retire with a final feather in the cap of his career. He's a multi-millionaire just off the bonuses he issued himself in the last year of the LOTR bubble, so GW has already accomplished all his goals.
I believe that many 40k players will keep buying their plastic miniatures even if they were at current Forge World prices. And for GW not to collapse, "many" doesn't even have to be a majority.
TheKbob wrote: The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.
Absolutely. I'm not really GW's customer at this point. I do my 40k completely independent of them. I use other published rules, get miniatures from people like Kromlech, Anvil and Victoria Miniatures and have the better fluff of Fantasy Flight's RPGs, RT and early 2nd edition to use. 40k's vehicles are just derivative of historical tanks, so I just convert historical vehicles. And making mad-max ork type vehicles from toys and scrap material is super easy and fun.
I just don't think I'm typical of GW's customers. I think enough of GW's customers think the value is there that they keep buying. And within that group is a subset that are prepared to pay even more.
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Kilkrazy wrote: I think that could work as a boutique miniatures company, but GW is organised as a mass production company.
The revenue does not need to decline much to eliminate the profits entirely, because of the enormous fixed cost base.
I used to think the exact same way. Then i realized it's all paid for.
Tooling machine? Paid for. Injection machines? Paid for. 3d sculpting and design stations? Paid for.
So the only real costs going forward are salaries of design and production staff. And the various costs of their building, property taxes, utilities, etc.,. And since you're going to have these people and places around anyway, the only real question is how to allocate their hours of work in the most efficient way possible.
Do I think GW is taking a huge risk in using mass production technologies to only produce in limited quantities? Absolutely. They are in the fortunate position though, of having all their manufacturing capabilities completely paid for by previous revenue.
And if you look in their previous reports, you'll find that administration staff has only just begun to be cut to match the cuts in production and retail staff. So there's a long way to go in terms of cost cutting.
It's obviously not sustainable forever to keep cutting costs and jacking up prices, but I think GW hasn't yet hit that point of going too far. Over the last couple of years Australian prices haven't increased too much while the rest of the world is being increased to levels similar to Australian pricing. I think we'll see UK, EU and US pricing hit parity with both Australia and Forgeworld before GW is in danger of truly having gone too far.
What do I want? GW to have sufficient financial hardship that they are forced to change. Or be bought out by someone with a better vision for their fictional universes.
When do I think this will happen? Not right away. There are enough true believers who keep buying. Until it does, I'll keep enjoying the 40k universe without using GW as my source for anything. It's so derivative that there are enough sci-fi and historical miniatures and models that I have so many options that I just don't need GW for any of it anymore. I would like that to be different though. I'd like the value proposition of their products to return to being something that interests me like they once were. But I'm not GW's target demographic. I'm not a 14 year old boy. So they might never appeal to me again.
TheKbob wrote: The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.
Absolutely. I'm not really GW's customer at this point. I do my 40k completely independent of them. I use other published rules, get miniatures from people like Kromlech, Anvil and Victoria Miniatures and have the better fluff of RT and early 2nd edition to use. 40k's vehicles are just derivative of historical tanks, so I just convert historical vehicles. And making mad-max ork type vehicles is super easy and fun.
I just don't think I'm typical of GW's customers. I think enough of GW's customers think the value is there that they keep buying. And within that group is a subset that are prepared to pay even more.
I'm all for this. I wish it wasn't like this. If they reintroduced a skirmish game, one where having one Predator Tank was a jaw dropping force of reckoning, like the fluff, I'd be all for it. The thought of needing 3 Predator Tanks plus 6 Rhinos, plus 60 Marines, and accouterments just doesn't excite me anymore. I like taking 3~4 different games with me to game night for the same bag space as one 40k army. That means I can play with so many different people and games versus sticking to one.
azreal13 wrote: I think most of Gw's customers are just ignorant of the fact that they have other options.
That is of course, GWHQ's ultimate objective by all accounts.
Indeed. We now have had in our city, not one but 3(!) LGS's have opened up more or less at the same time. There are a lot of people that are being opened up to new games having never even heard of them previously. They had seen WMH slowly taking over the gaming club but there are several others.
What makes this more interesting is one of the 3 stores has opened up about 30 yards away from GW (the other two are a little out of the way and are not exactly on the high street) If they're smart they'll be open on Mondays and Tuesdays for obvious reasons.
GW might have a fight on its hands for hobby ignorance over here.
TheKbob wrote: The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.
Absolutely. I'm not really GW's customer at this point. I do my 40k completely independent of them. I use other published rules, get miniatures from people like Kromlech, Anvil and Victoria Miniatures and have the better fluff of RT and early 2nd edition to use. 40k's vehicles are just derivative of historical tanks, so I just convert historical vehicles. And making mad-max ork type vehicles is super easy and fun.
I just don't think I'm typical of GW's customers. I think enough of GW's customers think the value is there that they keep buying. And within that group is a subset that are prepared to pay even more.
I'm all for this. I wish it wasn't like this. If they reintroduced a skirmish game, one where having one Predator Tank was a jaw dropping force of reckoning, like the fluff, I'd be all for it. The thought of needing 3 Predator Tanks plus 6 Rhinos, plus 60 Marines, and accouterments just doesn't excite me anymore. I like taking 3~4 different games with me to game night for the same bag space as one 40k army. That means I can play with so many different people and games versus sticking to one.
Exactly. IMO "normal" 40k should be the scale of Bolt Action. You get infantry, some extras, 0-1 armored car (not sure what that would translate to in 40k, walker perhaps?), 0-1 tank but you can take transports if you want, and a standard game is 1,000 points which is like 3-4 squads plus extras.
Exactly. IMO "normal" 40k should be the scale of Bolt Action. You get infantry, some extras, 0-1 armored car (not sure what that would translate to in 40k, walker perhaps?), 0-1 tank but you can take transports if you want, and a standard game is 1,000 points which is like 3-4 squads plus extras.
If they ever made a sci-fi bolt action, I'd be down. The only problem is how do you get folks to buy new models versus re-using 40k ones? I think that's the only reason we haven't seen a true competitor to 40k; the large glut of old sci-fi 28mm that exists in the wild.
I read that 14 part series. It raises some very valid points and is mainly why I wrote my original post. Despite everything in there, I don't see GW totally going under due to their lack of debt, continued profit (however small that may be these days) and the hard core fan boys in upper class areas that are buying more stuff now than ever before.
Toofast wrote: I read that 14 part series. It raises some very valid points and is mainly why I wrote my original post. Despite everything in there, I don't see GW totally going under due to their lack of debt, continued profit (however small that may be these days) and the hard core fan boys in upper class areas that are buying more stuff now than ever before.
Then you just don't understand corporate accounting and finance, which that means you should go read the other threads with discussions from those who do that have been linked previously.
When a company like GW gets in a death spiral, the end of the company is usually resolved in months, not years.
And citation needed for your references as most facts point towards taking out loans to pay dividends (or expunging a large portion of cash reserves), continue profits only sustained through extreme cost cutting measures, and reduced sales volumes that cannot sustain the costs associated with GW's business strategy (stores, in-house manufacturing, etc.).
azreal13 wrote:I think most of Gw's customers are just ignorant of the fact that they have other options.
That is of course, GWHQ's ultimate objective by all accounts.
Great point!
GW has, from as early as the mid-90s, done everything they can to segment their offerings from the larger wargaming hobby. Their business model, like anyone who provides a complete package, benefits from (or maybe even relies on) customer ignorance.
TheKbob wrote:I'm all for this. I wish it wasn't like this. If they reintroduced a skirmish game, one where having one Predator Tank was a jaw dropping force of reckoning, like the fluff, I'd be all for it.
When GW was growing from a UK importer of D&D to an international company selling their own games and figures, their model count and scope is what you are describing. Now it's become Epic in 28mm with bad rules.
WayneTheGame wrote:Exactly. IMO "normal" 40k should be the scale of Bolt Action. You get infantry, some extras, 0-1 armored car (not sure what that would translate to in 40k, walker perhaps?), 0-1 tank but you can take transports if you want, and a standard game is 1,000 points which is like 3-4 squads plus extras.
Bolt Action + House rules is probably what I do 40k with the most often. They classified all their tanks and anti-tank weapons by classes like light, medium or extra-heavy, so it's really easy to find the right rules to represent 40k tanks and anti-tank weapons. Knights and Stompas and whatnot? Keep those off the table except for special occasions and play Epic in 6mm if you want those.
TheKbob wrote:If they ever made a sci-fi bolt action, I'd be down.
The only problem is how do you get folks to buy new models versus re-using 40k ones? I think that's the only reason we haven't seen a true competitor to 40k; the large glut of old sci-fi 28mm that exists in the wild.
People like new stuff. In the CHS lawsuit, GW had to give their sales numbers to the court. In there you'll find that their new releases sell well on launch and then drop off. It's much easier to sell people a new product than an existing one. People like news, excitement and hype. The industry is also better served by multiple smaller companies, so I don't really want to see a single direct competitor to 40k rise up. I like the current trend towards diversity.
I also think it's okay for a rules publisher to sell a game and not miniatures to someone. They'd obviously like to sell as much as possible and people's existing collections of 40k might stand in the way of some miniatures purchases, but I still think there's room to sell people new miniatures. People like buying them.
Toofast wrote:I read that 14 part series. It raises some very valid points and is mainly why I wrote my original post. Despite everything in there, I don't see GW totally going under due to their lack of debt, continued profit (however small that may be these days) and the hard core fan boys in upper class areas that are buying more stuff now than ever before.
I see it the same way except I would also add that GW is declining and also segmenting itself further from the larger hobby. So they're becoming smaller in terms of player base, customer base, sales volume and market share. In short, they're making themselves irrelevant to everyone who's not contained in their ecosystem.
Raising prices and cutting costs can't go on forever, but I think it can go on longer than most people realize.
Raising prices and cutting costs can't go on forever, but I think it can go on longer than most people realize.
I'll have to read more in the coming weeks about that new game from Warlord.
And as to your last statement, this would be true of a smaller company with lower operational costs, such as Wyrd. But Games Workshop has warehouse(s) they own, printing machines, retail chains, and more that they must all maintain. Their finances can be just as tight or worse should they begin to collapse. The next TSR is apt if they don't course correct.
Oh, it'll eventually implode. There is a point where their actions have alienated enough customers that no price hike can cover the lost revenue and where if they lay off one more person, they can't actually function at their core business.
If GW doesn't do something, they will eventually hit that point.
Their current plan?
Open up as many single employee stores as possible and hope the combination of location and staff members works out to produce a profitable store.
Release more and more products direct only so all the customers the independent trade partners have developed will eventually order from GW direct, allowing GW to capture more of the revenue.
GW is betting on their single employee hard sales approach to retail. They think it'll work.
And it might. There are enough stores that are indeed hitting their sales targets. If they can figure out what that store is doing and standardize those practices then they might be able to find a way to hard sell their way to profitability. Until they cross a pricing line where even the best sales tactics can't close the deal because of the lack of value.
While I talked about this in another thread, it seems appropriate to elaborate a little more here. I wish to start with a disclaimer that what I write is exclusive of my personal feelings about the current state of the game, GW management, or their insane pricing.
First, a quick look at the "death spiral":
There is a reason in business this is called a "death spiral". Not a hiccup, trouble, a bump in the road, or whatever. It is called this because it has a pretty predictable and repeatable pattern historically in a business context. What is important in recognizing a true death spiral is a specific sequence of events, not any particular one in isolation. If there is one thing I have learned about this funnel, is every business owner should be completely paranoid of never getting caught in it. I don't have to say what the usual outcome as you can guess with the title of "death".
The first step that can cause many companies to enter the spiral is of course a decline in financial performance. Companies that experience double-digit declines in revenue are especially susceptible to entering the funnel. This has no happened with GW.
The second step is rushing out products faster and faster in an effort to stem the tide of the funnel deepening. This is also usually coupled with rapidly escalating double digit price increases. GW has been doing this, especially over the last six months.
The result of the second step, leads to the third step, an obvious decline in product quality. We have especially witnessed this with GWs print products over the last six months. This becomes even more acute when the company is raising prices, effectively charging a premium, for sub-par quality.
After this, the company enters towards the bottom of the funnel. Before I explain this phase, let me say this. There is only two documented cases (that I am aware of) of a company saving itself once it has entered that stage of the funnel - Apple, with the return of Steve Jobs, and Nintendo.
The previous steps all obviously lead to poorer sales. This then leads to a company cutting back on expenses. Once these expense cuts reach into sales and marketing, it is pretty much a forgone conclusion that the company is finished. We have seen GW doing this as well - going to one man stores, cutting out Games Day, moving stores from high street to side street, moving over 1,000 products direct only.
One thing to also take note of. The funnel progressively gets narrower towards the bottom because each stage progressively happens faster and faster. Historically, the average for most companies, once they fully enter the funnel, is 22 months to death. Now, that is an average so it means for some it happens faster, others slower. But rarely do these drag out more than four or five years at most.
Strictly speaking from a business standpoint, you need to look at where we think GW is in this funnel. Without a doubt, they are definitely in it. I personally believe they are entering the final stages of the funnel and the next financial report should tell us just how quickly they will be going through that final stage of the funnel.
I would love for GW to come to its senses and pull itself out of the spiral. I would love if GW stopped its aggressive business practices or stopped insulting its customers. I want to like them, they just have to give me a reason.
That said, I don't think they will pull up and avoid crashing.
After the third time in this thread, we should hopefully get some folks to grok what's happening.
And the uptick in eBay sales isn't good for GW. That is meaning more folks are selling off their gaming goods, such as myself. My last two armies are going on eBay tomorrow. I'm keeping my Grey Knights unless I get a large cash offer just because of the work I put into them. If/when GW finally collapses, I look forward to supporting the new company that picks up the IP and game products, assuming they actually listen to us and stop making the game a random pile of nonsense and stop devaluing the models left and right.
A good read, And a even better video.
Lots of good ideas, And some interesting observations on GW.
I think they'll have enough time to give the single employee store expansion an honest go. They're going to open up tons of them and enough need to stick. If they don't succeed, then they'll have lost money on the cost of opening so many stores and not gotten what they need from them and that'll be that for GW.
If a given GW store with a single employee does somewhere around 60% of the revenue of one of their previously formatted multi-employee stores, then they need to open up twice as many stores to get the same revenue when you factor in ramping up time and the costs of multiple locations.
These stores are either going to be the heroes that sell GW product at great levels or the millstone around GW's neck that drags them down into the murky depths. It'll entirely be a matter of location, lease details and recruitment of employees.
And that "customer experience" position they advertised before may actually be the key to figuring this whole thing out. If they can actually get someone who goes to GW stores that are successfully meeting their sales goals and figures out exactly how they're doing it and then they develop a chain wide process of how to make the single employee stores operate at a profit and then roll that out, they could end up doing great.
The funny thing though, is they're having to learn how to do something they already knew how to do. If they could recognize that something has fundamentally changed about their product, they wouldn't need how to figure out how to sell it again. They could simply make their product like it was when GW was growing and people were loving it and then sell that. Instead they've committed to this epic-in-28mm-to-sell-more-models approach and now have to figure out if there's some way to make this high cost, low value product work.
After the third time in this thread, we should hopefully get some folks to grok what's happening.
And the uptick in eBay sales isn't good for GW. That is meaning more folks are selling off their gaming goods, such as myself. My last two armies are going on eBay tomorrow. I'm keeping my Grey Knights unless I get a large cash offer just because of the work I put into them. If/when GW finally collapses, I look forward to supporting the new company that picks up the IP and game products, assuming they actually listen to us and stop making the game a random pile of nonsense and stop devaluing the models left and right.
A good read, And a even better video.
Lots of good ideas, And some interesting observations on GW.
Agreed. The pertinent discussion starts at 45min in for those less inclined to wait. TL;DR: bunch of fans of 40k disliking GW backed with miniature business based experience. The creator of Creature Caster calls GW plastics highway robbery with good reasoning and not hyperbole. If you are a "head in sand" fan of GW, don't listen. It might make the sand a bit more uncomfortable and travel to lower extremities. Then we might have to hear about that...
frozenwastes wrote: I think they'll have enough time to give the single employee store expansion an honest go. They're going to open up tons of them and enough need to stick. If they don't succeed, then they'll have lost money on the cost of opening so many stores and not gotten what they need from them and that'll be that for GW.
If a given GW store with a single employee does somewhere around 60% of the revenue of one of their previously formatted multi-employee stores, then they need to open up twice as many stores to get the same revenue when you factor in ramping up time and the costs of multiple locations.
These stores are either going to be the heroes that sell GW product at great levels or the millstone around GW's neck that drags them down into the murky depths. It'll entirely be a matter of location, lease details and recruitment of employees.
And that "customer experience" position they advertised before may actually be the key to figuring this whole thing out. If they can actually get someone who goes to GW stores that are successfully meeting their sales goals and figures out exactly how they're doing it and then they develop a chain wide process of how to make the single employee stores operate at a profit and then roll that out, they could end up doing great.
The funny thing though, is they're having to learn how to do something they already knew how to do. If they could recognize that something has fundamentally changed about their product, they wouldn't need how to figure out how to sell it again. They could simply make their product like it was when GW was growing and people were loving it and then sell that. Instead they've committed to this epic-in-28mm-to-sell-more-models approach and now have to figure out if there's some way to make this high cost, low value product work.
Most of the facts seen to date is that the stores are already millstones and that one-man type operations are poor business models. Games Workship benefits poorly from their own sales margins in them as they have the rental costs and employee cost associated with them when those burdens could be handled by the independent store fronts with only some change in margins. The only problem is that GW cannot then control the message and would have to openly compete with the third parties eating their lunch. When you're a newcomer and you see an $85 rulebook plus $50 army book or $15 rulebook and $40 starter box, outside of pure aesthetics as a drawing point, you can guess where the money is going.
frozenwastes wrote: I used to think the exact same way. Then i realized it's all paid for.
Tooling machine? Paid for.
Injection machines? Paid for.
3d sculpting and design stations? Paid for.
So the only real costs going forward are salaries of design and production staff. And the various costs of their building, property taxes, utilities, etc.
GWs biggest overhead is staff and stores. They also have to project hugely into innovation of revenue because 3D printing is coming.
frozenwastes wrote: If the correlation that Painting Buddha pointed out between dividend and earnings per share holds up, then GW might not have the time I think it does.
That's the gist of what I was getting at, but I'm terrible at explaining things financial.
After the third time in this thread, we should hopefully get some folks to grok what's happening.
And the uptick in eBay sales isn't good for GW. That is meaning more folks are selling off their gaming goods, such as myself. My last two armies are going on eBay tomorrow. I'm keeping my Grey Knights unless I get a large cash offer just because of the work I put into them. If/when GW finally collapses, I look forward to supporting the new company that picks up the IP and game products, assuming they actually listen to us and stop making the game a random pile of nonsense and stop devaluing the models left and right.
Mod edit: In the future, please avoid making an image-only post. Thanks - RiTides
I always questioned the need for stores, at least in the U.S, I think that all of that money would be better spent on marketing, advertising, and endorsements that would spread the product much further than sparsley scattered, poorly manned stores can do.
Mod edit: In the future, please avoid making an image-only post. Thanks - RiTides
You should know that the individual writing that blog not only manages a growing miniatures based product, but is also a massive 40k fanboy and former corporate executive himself. You can read the entire series which begins with his credentials.
I assume you're "making fun", in a poor fashion, of myself and others who are saying that the outlook is currently grim for 40k, but your opinion towards the facts of the matter does not change them. Much like many political issues of today, just because you want to believe something really, really hard, it doesn't change facts.
So, if you'd like to provide your own fact based analysis on why Games Workshop is just fine, I'm sure we'd all enjoy that. But after having three major threads on this topic, none have yet to arise; the only thing that has is name calling from pouting and misplaced angst. So, which category will you likely fit into?
agnosto wrote: I always questioned the need for stores, at least in the U.S, I think that all of that money would be better spent on marketing, advertising, and endorsements that would spread the product much further than sparsley scattered, poorly manned stores can do.
So does 90+% of every other company in the world, the rest do both. Only GW goes the store with only in house advertising route.
Mod edit: In the future, please avoid making an image-only post. Thanks - RiTides
You should know that the individual writing that blog not only manages a growing miniatures based product, but is also a massive 40k fanboy and former corporate executive himself. You can read the entire series which begins with his credentials.
Not only that but he was an executive of a company that makes GW look like small potatoes (he says he was former Global CIO of Aldi, which while I don't have all the data according to Wikipedia made revenue of 53 *billion* Euro in 2009, compared to GW's what, 150 million pounds?), so he's probably the most qualified person to discuss such matters, and if he thinks things are dire then they probably are.
How many of these doom and gloom threads we need a month? Hell how many we need per week? News flash gents if you predict the end of the world for the next 7 billion years guess what you'll be right.... Eventually. Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.
lobbywatson wrote: How many of these doom and gloom threads we need a month? Hell how many we need per week? News flash gents if you predict the end of the world for the next 7 billion years guess what you'll be right.... Eventually. Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.
Is that hobby purchasing things from Games Workshop by any chance?
lobbywatson wrote: How many of these doom and gloom threads we need a month? Hell how many we need per week? News flash gents if you predict the end of the world for the next 7 billion years guess what you'll be right.... Eventually. Meanwhile the rest of us will endure your douchery while enjoying our hobby.
Yet another person who hasn't bothered to read the article.
If people do not like reading this kind of thread, please do not read this kind of thread.
I personally do not like reading threads about WHFB, as I gave up that game in the mid-1980s. I only read them if someone hits the Moderator alert button.
I spent the day painting some more gants and building the models for my first 50pt Steamroller tournament tomorrow. Had lots of fun building Nightmare but 20 Bane Thralls?... phew. Glad that I'll never need to build another unit again (unless I want 30 Bane Thralls?!).
So I'm enjoying my hobby while still saying GW ain't doin' hot and is probably going to tank given their current trajectory; more so than the "past 20 years" or "stopped clock" because we have actual facts that say so this time. And there isn't a "Lord of the Rings" bail out coming down the pipes that we know of this time.
TheKbob wrote: I would say not price, but value. The rulebooks go up in price without offering anything significant in terms of actual game worth. The models are being cut in numbers and raised in price; stealth price increases such as the massive Stompa being cheaper than the Imperial Knight. Stupid rules releases like codex pricing on a book containing 1 units with 2 wargear options, etc. etc. etc.
The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.
Value is in the eye of the beholder.
Personally I also feel that GW stuff is now far too expensive for what you get. However there clearly are lots of people who love it, or GW would not be selling £130 million a year.
GW essentially are becoming a boutique wargame company that issues a very extensive range of products for two games at very high prices.
I hesitate to use words such as naive as I have been criticised for it before, however it seems to me that people who are "naive" in the sense that their first and only exposure to tabletop wargames is GW may not see any problem with the pricing or value for money. After all, such people have nothing to compare with GW and GW only seem expensive by comparison with the broad range of wargaming.
It may depend on your country's gaming culture, but since a lot of gaming here in Holland happens either in FLGS or clubs, I've yet to meet any 40k player that hasn't at least 'seen' dozens of other systems.
Yet these people still buy GW produce (and often play other systems too).
Does there really exist a market somewhere where GW is the only choice and the internet doesn't exist?
10 years ago maybe, but maybe I'm naive for thinking these naive customers don't exist anymore.
Why would you go on the internet and look for wargames sites if you weren't interested in wargames?
If your first exposure to wargames is GW, because your older brother or schoolfriends play it, or because there is a GW in your town, you might easily just get into it without realising about the wider hobby until later on.
Shandara wrote: It may depend on your country's gaming culture, but since a lot of gaming here in Holland happens either in FLGS or clubs, I've yet to meet any 40k player that hasn't at least 'seen' dozens of other systems.
READ: 'Holland' a small, densely-packed country (to my knowledge).
Over across the pond in the expansive U.S.A, there are still many areas where if you don't play the local game you're out of luck. And even some areas where gamers sit alone in the middle of nowhere, with no like-minded wargamers in many miles. There are environments over here in the US where the competitors are virtually unknown, at least I think so.
Kilkrazy wrote: Why would you go on the internet and look for wargames sites if you weren't interested in wargames?
If your first exposure to wargames is GW, because your older brother or schoolfriends play it, or because there is a GW in your town, you might easily just get into it without realising about the wider hobby until later on.
So if someone becomes interested thanks to their friends/family/etc.. they would go on the internet with their interests (especially since it's cheap and kids don't have infinite money). This isn't the 90s anymore.
I still don't have an issue with the price mainly because it's cheaper to buy a new codex and rule book every 2 years and a new model when I get bored with what I have than it is to start a whole new game system. It doesn't hurt that I have a thriving GW 1/4 mile from my house and all the local FLGS kind of suck for wargaming. Then again I play space wolves who seem to be a fairly stable army. All the guys I bought when I was in 7th grade still work in my army today.
Toofast wrote: I still don't have an issue with the price mainly because it's cheaper to buy a new codex and rule book every 2 years and a new model when I get bored with what I have than it is to start a whole new game system. It doesn't hurt that I have a thriving GW 1/4 mile from my house and all the local FLGS kind of suck for wargaming. Then again I play space wolves who seem to be a fairly stable army. All the guys I bought when I was in 7th grade still work in my army today.
This is part of the problem, it has actually reached the point where this is no longer the case. The new rulebook ($85) and a new codex ($50) runs you $135. Figure in the "upgrades" they try to force you into at around $150, and you're now at $285 (minimum) just to "keep up". Add in the recent changes with getting DLC or supplements to have something competitive, plus the new models escalating in price quickly, and you'll see its reaching the point where keeping up is fast approaching $450-$500 an army.
• Bolt Action - Rule book and Two Starter Armies runs $112. Most 1,000 point army sets (with a ton of minis and vehicles) run $128. With rules and full new army, you are at $163.
• Dropzone Commader Starter Box with rules and two starter armies is $75. Round out forces to have full armies and you're at about $160.
• Infinity Force Boxes are approx. $50. Rules are free (in entirety), but even then you can buy rulebook (for some added background) for $45. So $95 total. Add in enough miniatures for a "full army" in the game and you're at about $135.
It has in fact reached the point where "keeping up" with the game costs more than just going to a new game itself. This is why you now see so many veterans migrating - it is cheaper to start an entirely new game now. Not to mention, almost every manufacturer above offer fairly low cost "entry sets". Infinity will have one starting at GenCon with Operation: Icestorm. GW, on the other hand, just came out with one and made it in such limited quantities that it is sold out already. So they have little to attract the new players to the hobby.
Every wargame needs new blood to survive. When you look at startup costs for a GW game running $400-$500 dollars (and that is without really having a competitive army where to do that will easily cost more than $1,000 now), whereas for $130-$170 range for fully competitive armies with any other game, 40k is just not attracting much new blood. Obviously for good reason. Just as a final point of reference. For Infinity you can buy the base rulebook, two supplements and fully competitive, 300 point armies for ALL 8 factions for just over $900. With 40k, spending that much, you probably still don't have a single fully competitive 40k army.
So GW now faces this dilemma - for veterans, it is cheaper to switch games than maintain 40k; for newbies, they could get started with several other game systems for under $100 (or a little over that) whereas getting started with GW is going to cost them 5 times than amount. Is 40k really 5 times better than all the other systems on the market? No. In fact, in many cases, 40k is worse than many of the systems on the market today. So, in effect, you are paying 5 times more for a system half as good. Thus why most new blood is going for any system but 40k.
Finally, one last observation. Infinity has already been growing very well year over year. Since the beginning of this year though, it seems to be really going mainstream. It caused Corvus Belli to decide to delay the Archeon Falls supplement so they could write the Third Edition rules to be better translated and more approachable for new blood. They also decided to come up with a "starter set" in Operation: Icestorm and do resculpts for some of the more dated troop types. In my neck of the woods alone, I watched Infinity go from maybe two or three players just before Christmas last year to more than 20 players now (all of them ex-40kBTW). Not to mention, Infinity seems to be in gaming news and blogs everywhere all of the sudden, including taking over as game of choice for some previously well known 40k bloggers. In other words, I believe 40k now has some competition for those who like more of a sci-fi bent in their gaming.
Kilkrazy wrote: Why would you go on the internet and look for wargames sites if you weren't interested in wargames?
If your first exposure to wargames is GW, because your older brother or schoolfriends play it, or because there is a GW in your town, you might easily just get into it without realising about the wider hobby until later on.
So if someone becomes interested thanks to their friends/family/etc.. they would go on the internet with their interests (especially since it's cheap and kids don't have infinite money). This isn't the 90s anymore.
Then they probably go to Warseer or Bolter and Chainsword which are specific 40K forums. The kind of place they won't go is The Miniatures Page, where 40K is a very small minority interest compared to historicals.
This is part of the problem, it has actually reached the point where this is no longer the case. The new rulebook ($85) and a new codex ($50) runs you $135. Figure in the "upgrades" they try to force you into at around $150, and you're now at $285 (minimum) just to "keep up". Add in the recent changes with getting DLC or supplements to have something competitive, plus the new models escalating in price quickly, and you'll see its reaching the point where keeping up is fast approaching $450-$500 an army.
• Bolt Action - Rule book and Two Starter Armies runs $112. Most 1,000 point army sets (with a ton of minis and vehicles) run $128. With rules and full new army, you are at $163.
• Dropzone Commader Starter Box with rules and two starter armies is $75. Round out forces to have full armies and you're at about $160.
• Infinity Force Boxes are approx. $50. Rules are free (in entirety), but even then you can buy rulebook (for some added background) for $45. So $95 total. Add in enough miniatures for a "full army" in the game and you're at about $135.
It has in fact reached the point where "keeping up" with the game costs more than just going to a new game itself. This is why you now see so many veterans migrating - it is cheaper to start an entirely new game now. Not to mention, almost every manufacturer above offer fairly low cost "entry sets". Infinity will have one starting at GenCon with Operation: Icestorm. GW, on the other hand, just came out with one and made it in such limited quantities that it is sold out already. So they have little to attract the new players to the hobby.
Every wargame need new blood to survive. When you look at startup costs for a GW game running $400-$500 dollars (and that is without really having a competitive army where to do that will easily cost more than $1,000 now), whereas for $130-$170 range for fully competitive armies with any other game, 40k is just not attracting much new blood. Obviously for good reason. Just as a final point of reference. For Infinity you can buy the base rulebook, two supplements and fully competitive, 300 point armies for ALL 8 factions for just over $900. With 40k, spending that much, you probably still don't have a single fully competitive 40k army.
Wargaming is expensive no matter the system. The prices for X-Wing are ridiculous for what you are actually getting [tiny little painted ship and some cards]. Model by model Infinity are just as expensive as GW, but you need less of them, although admittedly the free rules are a nice touch. The thing driving up GW prices for me are all of the limited edition codexes with very little actually added, which sends a message to GW that we will pay a big premium for very little added value. However if you wargame, your wallet is going to take a bashing.
Back to the OP, ever since I've been on 40k forums [probably around 10 years] there have always been posts predicting GW's financial collapse. I'm sure there are people who can remember even further back. Losing market share, yes, on the verge of collapse, very very unlikely. On the verge of a sale is a different matter as lots of the moves seem to be sort term strategies, designed to get the books looking healthier [7th, which pissed loads of people off but will generate sales, Stormclaw for a financial boose etc].
Toofast wrote: I still don't have an issue with the price mainly because it's cheaper to buy a new codex and rule book every 2 years and a new model when I get bored with what I have than it is to start a whole new game system. It doesn't hurt that I have a thriving GW 1/4 mile from my house and all the local FLGS kind of suck for wargaming. Then again I play space wolves who seem to be a fairly stable army. All the guys I bought when I was in 7th grade still work in my army today.
I agree with Wayshuba on this point.
I have two armies for 40K, Tau and Tyranids.
I didn't buy the 6th edition codexes although I have the rules. If I want to upgrade to 7th edition, I am faced with a bill of £110 for the core rules and the two codexes. The codexes are out of date. The rules may for all I know be replaced in two years, and I don't want the fluff and art books. The new models like the Riptide which are the key features of the new books are an extra expense.
If I decided to spend that money on X-Wing, I could get the starter set and six or seven add-on boxes for the same money. I would have a complete new game with rules, ready painted models, and two decent sized fleets. Then I might add another ship each month, or a big box for birthday and Christmas.
OTOH if GW would issue the rules only book for say £25 and softback codexes for £15, I could get the new rules, both codexes, and a Flyrant, and be back in the game with my Tyranids. Once playing again, I would probably become enthusiastic about a Riptide, and so on.
tyrannosaurus wrote: Wargaming is expensive no matter the system. The prices for X-Wing are ridiculous for what you are actually getting [tiny little painted ship and some cards]. Model by model Infinity are just as expensive as GW, but you need less of them, although admittedly the free rules are a nice touch. The thing driving up GW prices for me are all of the limited edition codexes with very little actually added, which sends a message to GW that we will pay a big premium for very little added value. However if you wargame, your wallet is going to take a bashing.
You're correct here. But there is expensive and then there is being ludicrous. When GW starts putting out bundles for wargame minis that are more than the price of cars, you have gone from expensive to completely looking like idiots. Additionally, most wargaming is not expensive on the initial entry ramp (around the $100 mark) and thus can attract new players. When that initial entry ramp is the $500+ range, you are not going to get the players period as they are going to go for less expensive hobbies like chucking Ferraris off cliffs.
tyrannosaurus wrote: Back to the OP, ever since I've been on 40k forums [probably around 10 years] there have always been posts predicting GW's financial collapse. I'm sure there are people who can remember even further back. Losing market share, yes, on the verge of collapse, very very unlikely. On the verge of a sale is a different matter as lots of the moves seem to be sort term strategies, designed to get the books looking healthier [7th, which pissed loads of people off but will generate sales, Stormclaw for a financial boose etc].
Most of that kind of chatter comes from more emotional reactions to changes in the game, pricing, etc. That aside, strictly looking at GW from a business perspective, they have never been in the precarious business situation as they are now. Very precarious. They have just about become a one product line company based around 40k, and if that one product has a mass exodus (which could potentially be happening now), they are done as a company (and they will be done very fast). This is why most 30 year old companies actually diversify product lines, too keep away from this potential cliff of collapse.
Shandara wrote: It may depend on your country's gaming culture, but since a lot of gaming here in Holland happens either in FLGS or clubs, I've yet to meet any 40k player that hasn't at least 'seen' dozens of other systems.
READ: 'Holland' a small, densely-packed country (to my knowledge).
Over across the pond in the expansive U.S.A, there are still many areas where if you don't play the local game you're out of luck. And even some areas where gamers sit alone in the middle of nowhere, with no like-minded wargamers in many miles. There are environments over here in the US where the competitors are virtually unknown, at least I think so.
That definitely does happen. In the USA since the majority of gaming takes place in game stores, and nearly every game store that has miniatures has a sort of clique that's formed among the regular people there (and sadly there are a few times when said clique is cold and unfriendly to "outsiders"), you are kind of at the mercy of whatever the local clique plays; if you go to a new game store and try to sell them on another game, there's just as much chance that the local clique will react with hostility to some outsider trying to get them to change as having a few catchers-on.
So if the store has a healthy 40k community, then people are going to play 40k and even if they do know about other games, they choose not to play them because everybody else plays 40k, so 40k = guaranteed games, others = you'd have to convince others to play and hope they stick with it. Nobody wants to take the risk of being the one guy who shows up to "minis night" with a game that nobody else is interested in, because then you've just wasted your time and walked away with nothing. Also, if people are devoting time to 40k that's time they can't devote to another game, depending on the level of commitment as speaking from experience it's hard to balance multiple collecting/assembling/painting games at one time.
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Wayshuba wrote: You're correct here. But there is expensive and then there is being ludicrous. When GW starts putting out bundles for wargame minis that are more than the price of cars, you have gone from expensive to completely looking like idiots. Additionally, most wargaming is not expensive on the initial entry ramp (around the $100 mark) and thus can attract new players. When that initial entry ramp is the $500+ range, you are not going to get the players period as they are going to go for less expensive hobbies like chucking Ferraris off cliffs.
This is true as well. I commonly see the price argument, and it's almost never in the right context. I was actually talking with someone at one of the local game stores last night who was looking at starting Warmachine; he played 40k some years ago. We inevitably got to talking about price. I flat out told him that Warmachine does cost comparable to GW, the difference is that it's a much slower pace; you don't have to drop a couple of hundred immediately just to start playing at the entry-level. Figure per figure is generally in the same ballpark, so is unit per unit and some PP units are crazy expensive too (Iron Fang Pikemen @ $85 for 10), but it's offset by the fact that you typically don't want to buy a bunch of the same unit at expensive prices (some exceptions, still IFP) and every unit you buy represents a significant tactical choice for your army and can sometimes change the entire way you play, where in 40k most units are cannon fodder or for objectives.
As someone also looking at Bolt Action, I think that's the right way for GW to go, even if they charged a bit more for the "brand". A full 1,000 point army should be no more than $150. The rules should be $35. The Codexes don't need to be hardback, and should be small format (A8? I forget the designation) softcover with good paper for $25. Units are a bit trickier since Bolt Action tends to have a generic sprue and then weapons are the extras (not that GW couldn't do that, but they usually don't it doesn't look like), but they should be reasonably priced for a complete, normal-sized unit, none of this 5 for $50 crap. 10 figures for $30 should be right (within reason e.g. Terminators might be 5 for $30 since 5 is the normal size). Tanks should be around $40 but be limited in the rules for normal games. You get the picture. Warlord Games is basically GW done right (not a surprise seeing as it's Rick Priestly), Mantic could be seen similarly, as a Kings of War army of normal to good size (depending on which one) is under $200 and the units are priced correctly for Fantasy.
That's what GW should be doing. They could charge a little more for the brand, but what they're doing is a few notches short of price gouging.
The big problem in general is that GW and 40k hit a lot of really bad points all at once:
* Clunky, unintuitive rules that are confused (skirmish level rules in a regiment-level game, basically; for any historical players could you imagine if you were doing that with say Napoleonics? It would be insane!) * Little or no balance, with the goalposts constantly changing * Very expensive for no reason other than just because * Games take a very long time due to clunky rules
and that's not even getting into the face GW's marketing isn't suited for a tabletop game (e.g. impulse buys) and the fact that they consider their paying customers to be little more than rubes and marks ready to be taken for all they're worth.
WayneTheGame wrote: but what they're doing is a few notches short of price gouging.
I agree with everything you said in your post except this last statement. GW is well into price gouging, to the point of actually being highway robbery. No plastic 28 mm, none for whatever reason, is worth $30 or more. That almost borders on being criminal for what they charge sometimes.
But, then again, there is no law about taking people to the cleaners with your pricing who do not know any better.
CalgarsPimpHand wrote: - you don't really seem to understand 3D printing, the costs and limitations of the various printing technologies available, or how miniatures design/manufacturing companies actually use them; ditto for 3D scanners (3D printing as a manufacturing process is not a threat to high quality mass produced miniatures and won't be for many, many years, if ever)
I know the thread has largely moved on, but I wanted to chip in on this point.
We know that some companies in the industry use computer modeling and high end 3D printing to produce their master models. I have personally dealt with miniatures that were 3D printed at 32mm scale (not my own, I'm strictly hand sculpting). They were masters that were being used to make moulds for conventional casting, not for 3D printed distribution. The quality was definitely there, but (as it as relayed to me at least) the machine it was printed on was extraordinarily expensive itself, and the printing process/materials cost a similar amount as it can cost to have a professional sculptor hand-sculpt a master. And that does not include paying the computer 3D modeler to make the original files, who (I am under the impression) takes roughly as long to create a digital model as it takes the hand sculptor to create a green-stuff master.
So, yeah, digital sculpting & 3D printing; not really/maybe barley competitive as a development* tool at the moment, and nowhere near being useful for digital distribution/personal manufacturing of miniatures yet, and not anytime soon. That tech is years away, and it will be years after that before it reaches the required saturation point for it to be a threat.
*At least when it comes to resin or metal casting - I don't presume to speak about it's use for plastic/injection moulding.
WayneTheGame wrote: but what they're doing is a few notches short of price gouging.
I agree with everything you said in your post except this last statement. GW is well into price gouging, to the point of actually being highway robbery. No plastic 28 mm, none for whatever reason, is worth $30 or more. That almost borders on being criminal for what they charge sometimes.
But, then again, there is no law about taking people to the cleaners with your pricing who do not know any better.
I'll add that there are tolerable levels of gouging depending upon what the market will bear and I think we've hit that point for GW products.
I dipped a toe into Warmachine and bought the MKII rulebook for about $30, the Cryx faction book (which you don't need, you can play off of the cards alone) for $30, I forget what I paid for the card deck. All of these were digital purchases through the PP apps; the cards in particular are brilliant because they're auto-updated and have all the rules that I need to play that unit. With GW, I need to look at 4 or 5 different entries for each unit because all of the rules are in different locations between the big rulebook and the codex which just slows the game down.
Modelwise; the starters are similar to GW in that you don't get enough points to try an average size game but the faction starters seem to mostly be balanced against each other even at different point levels.
Where WM/H shines is in game scaling. You can literally spend about $100 and have a tournament pt level list. I bought the Cryx starter, a unit of mechnithralls, a stitch surgeon and a solo; at online discount prices that came to a total of about $100 and is a fairly competitive force.
So, for the price of updating to the 7th edition rulebook and one or two new army books with GW, I'm into a new game with a not-terrible army and can just build out from here. It's been said before and it's worth repeating, GW sets the barrier too high for entry. This applies to veterans like myself as much as newbies because you can't recycle rulebooks (unless you have a local club that decides to do so). For me, it's a no-brainer that if I can start a new game with a nearly complete or complete army for the price of a GW rulebook and army book....why go to GW at all? Sacaling is a huge issue with GW as well since they don't have skirmish options that allow people to start small and build up to normal-sized games.
7th killed 40k for me; I'll keep the forces that I currently own (Tau, Grey Knights, Ultras and Dark Eldar) and I might continue to work on my DE over time but that's it. I have no plans to buy another codex or rulebook as the value just isn't there anymore for me; I've got plenty of disposable income but I'm not going to be ripped-off to support GW's failed business model.
TheKbob wrote: I would say not price, but value. The rulebooks go up in price without offering anything significant in terms of actual game worth. The models are being cut in numbers and raised in price; stealth price increases such as the massive Stompa being cheaper than the Imperial Knight. Stupid rules releases like codex pricing on a book containing 1 units with 2 wargear options, etc. etc. etc.
The value proposition of Games Workshop games is terrible, specific pricing excluded.
Value is in the eye of the beholder.
However, it is not when you can objectively prove that, without even comparing Games Workshop products to other games, that the value has dropped. I can post again the first case of Dire Avengers and proceed through the entire model line (Finecast, many other plastic anomalies, etc.) and the rules, which shouldn't need a further explanation. All with cited sources.
Value is a measurable thing. Whether or not you then want to pay the cost of said value is an entirely different matter. Simply put, the value of Games Workshop products have measurably and objectively dropped.
... and please people, stop being so rational and using logic and reasoning. We have to be more irrational with a heavy dash of Whinging and Moaning™. I have my first Steamroller today. I play Cryx, so I can appreciate expensive units... two sets of Bane Thralls...
Value clearly has dropped but if enough people don't care, or think it is still good enough, or are too new to know that the value has dropped, it doesn't matter.
I am a good example of a long term player for whom the value for money has fallen below the threshold at which I will participate. I dropped out of buying models three years ago, except I said I would buy an awesome new Tau model if they made one. By the time they made it (Riptide) I had dropped out of buying the codexes, them having doubled in price, and did not buy any books or a new model.
However GW still sold £130 million of product in 2012-13. People are still buying.
What will be interesting to see is what they have sold in 2013-14.
Wayshuba wrote: GW is well into price gouging, to the point of actually being highway robbery.
No they are not. Price gouging by definition involves products that you have to buy and limited access to them. For example, selling bottled water for $100 after a natural disaster contaminates the local water supply. GW can not be price gouging because there is no artificial scarcity or dire need for their products to take advantage of. They're simply charging more for their products than you want to pay.
No plastic 28 mm, none for whatever reason, is worth $30 or more.
That is your personal opinion, not objective truth. If you don't want to pay $30 for a 28mm miniature then don't pay it, just don't complain about how it's "criminal" when there is nothing even close to illegal about GW's price choices.
And the answer, there as here, is that people who want to be vindictive about GW not doing things the way they want will always project a perceived failure in their products or business practices as an imminent failure of the business itself.
And it never happens. At which point, like people predicting the second coming of Jesus, the goalposts get moved again, and THIS time it's totally going to happen for real this time. A newly divined prophecy. The heavens themselves predict GW's failure!
And yet the person who writes the articles linked to knows more about business than likely any one of us, and says that things are likely to go bad for GW.
But what does he know, he's probably just a hater...
And the answer, there as here, is that people who want to be vindictive about GW not doing things the way they want will always project a perceived failure in their products or business practices as an imminent failure of the business itself.
Well, allow me a specific in order to disprove your general. I have no axe to grind against GW, I'm not in the least vindictive, I respond honestly to each and every incident that comes out of Lenton, whether that be financial news, policy change or product release. I think GW could be in real trouble.
Neither is anyone predicting the imminent failure, at least nobody with any chops as far as I've read.
And it never happens. At which point, like people predicting the second coming of Jesus, the goalposts get moved again, and THIS time it's totally going to happen for real this time. A newly divined prophecy. The heavens themselves predict GW's failure!
Correction.
It hasn't happened yet.
In actual fact, nobody has really changed what they've been predicting, just some have been a little premature. There's an increasing amount, in terms of anecdotal evidence, hard fact and inference, to suggest that we are finally seeing the point of make or break, and continued progress on their current path may be terminal. That's what makes the imminent financials so interesting and important, because that will either support the theory or disprove it.
But then, I see many people proclaiming "the end of GW" using facts and figures to back up their argument, and often providing reasons why they might be able to offer insight into the situation in terms of professional or academic knowledge dismissed as haters, perhaps I just need to dismiss those who tell me "everything is fine" without providing a shred of reasoning as to why as vacant, clueless, sheep and move on?
Even if GW releases 8th Edition and its such a major bomb that it gets the same sales as the Virtual Boy, GW wont go under. They will still sell models and such, because people will just taboo 8th edition and stick to 7th, since iirc thats what people did with Fantasy.
It will take a lot of bad sales to kill GW, and bad by their standards not what you would normally think bad.
Vineheart01 wrote: It will take a lot of bad sales to kill GW, and bad by their standards not what you would normally think bad.
A special kind of bad
GW's core business is the splash release of new stuff. It sells so much better than their existing product line (see CHS lawsuit sales spreadsheet) and then trails off. So if they can keep releasing new stuff, people will keep buying it. And the new Santorum Reach box set shows they can even take existing kits, add a couple new characters and a rulebook and people will buy it as if it is a new product. So they even are stumbling on a way of reselling existing kits as new releases.
Hmm... people seem to love our new releases. I wonder what we can do to sell our existing products as if they were new releases? A box, a book and a couple characters. Get that tooled up right away!
The fact that there are enough people buying to cause that set to sell out so rapidly who normally would never buy 10 grots and a few kans separately makes me think there really are enough true believers to keep GW going.
The new box is selling because of a heavy discount and containing a small rulebook, both of which players really want. With regards to the discount on pre-existing kits it's no different than the other bundles GW is doing like SMSF and SMSF Ultra.
Vineheart01 wrote: . They will still sell models and such, because people will just taboo 8th edition and stick to 7th, since iirc thats what people did with Fantasy..
Maybe in some areas. From what I've seen, people mostly just stopped playing Fantasy.
Just look at the half year report of the Australian Market. I million+ pounds loss of sales, however the cut operational costs by 1.5 Million+ pounds in the six months to post an operational profit.
I have been told that Games Workshop will go very close into posting a full year sales loss of up to 2 million pounds in the Australian Market alone, but have cut costs by 2.5 million pounds in the Australian Market to make 500,000 pounds profit.
Sounds great but not only they are cutting to the bone, they are sucking out the marrow. The level of one man stores are becoming the norm, while they are shut for two days per week their opposition is open 7 days a week.
Also here is something that isn't published and that is the terms of contracts to indies in Australia, Games Workshop is telling indies that in re-negotiation of their contracts that they have to expand their range of GW product and if they can't due to limited floor space they'll terminate their contracts. GW are playing hardball with indies.
I actually two years ago predicted that the GW Battle Bunker in Parramatta would close, it did two months ago, due to negative sales unable to recoup operational expenses and I know of a further 4 GW stores that closed for the same reason.
Also the erratic pricing of the Australian Market, it does not make any sense. then there is the exponential price increase, take for example when Assault on Black Reach was launched it cost me $85.00 AUD and four years later it sold for $165.00 AUD, meaning that in 5 year the same product increased by more than 90%.
Again, we are all just speculating. The proof is gong to be in the pudding, as they say.
GW had one of their worst reports ever in the last six months, the only exception being when the LOTRO bubble burst a while back. This next financial report, and why so many are interested in it more than ever before, is really going to be the telling sign of what the future of GW is going to be. If, for some reason, they actually increased sales YoY in the period and made up some of the loss from the prior period, than maybe they will keep struggling along for a while. If they post a decrease in this coming period reporting, as well as the prior period, in spite of a rapidly accelerated product release cycle topped off by one of their biggest selling products (the 40k rules), then it will be the amount of decline that will dictate just how much trouble GW is truly in. Anything 15% or more of decline in the coming period reporting and it is a very clear sign that GW is in a lot of trouble and things definitely are not like they were anytime in the past.
As for them selling out products, I don't put too much on that as we do not know the run quantities. Lately, it seems 1,000-2,000 is the norm. Too me, it seems rather dumb to keep releasing things in quantities that would sell more, and make more revenue, but not do it. I can only gather this is because costs are now being watched so tightly they are actually cutting into their ability to generate revenue as a result (otherwise a common occurrence near the closing cycle of the death spiral)
frozenwastes wrote: Every one that sells through established distribution channels?
Their war upon the Independents who carry their product and pay the costs associated with doing so has always baffled me. Especially since they began cutting costs so aggressively.
Achaylus72 wrote: ...while they are shut for two days per week their opposition is open 7 days a week.
Which of GW's competitors has stores in Australia?
At this point, the competitors don't need dedicated stores to kill GW. FLGS support of GW products has fallen dramatically around my area over the past 10 years. If the local GW closed and the FLGS didn't increase their support (and they might since there would be some displaced GW players) then for me there'd be very little point continuing GW products as there'd be almost no where to play.
frozenwastes wrote: Every one that sells through established distribution channels?
Their war upon the Independents who carry their product and pay the costs associated with doing so has always baffled me. Especially since they began cutting costs so aggressively.
It's their desire for margin protection at all costs. They see independent stores as chumps to be used to build their market share and then they do their best to steal the client base developed by their "business partner" with direct only releases, unreliable pre-orders for independents, limited allocation of products and draconian sales terms (which I hear are getting worse in Australia with higher minimums and mandatory products to be carried both being on the rise).
If you knew how many Stormclaw sets were snatched by resellers, you'd be less surprised why it sold out as quickly as it did. Also consider that no new player got their mitts on it, since it largely sold out before it even hit store shelves.
If offered a low enough price, people will buy even Killa Kans. Raw Stormclaws frames are being offered at 60% of RRP. If I had an ork army, I'd get one set too, even if I didn't plan on using it.
I pointed up my 5000 point Epic Armageddon Space Marine army (this is the standard game size, so around 2/2.5k points in 40k term) using the new Marine codex and it came to just under 3000 points. To put it another way a normal sized army for a 6mm mass battle game is now only slightly smaller in terms of model count than a 28mm skirmish game. As Epic infantry are mounted 5 to a base the number of individual components in the 40k army is actually far higher. This is an excellent illustrator that something has gone very badly wrong. Epic also managed to fit its entire rules inside 20 pages, GW can't manage to fit 40K's rules inside 120 (unless they have manged it in 7th which I doubt).
I predict that 7th will have buoyed up GW's sales to a reasonable degree, enough to make this years report look decent at least, which is why 7th was released early. Next years report will have to rely on Fantasy 9th and things will be looking a lot less rosy then.
While I don't want GW to die I certainly think they aren't doing well. I refuse to buy rules anymore since they are so expensive and so poorly written. And by that extension, I don't buy models since I have nothing to do with them.
All fine and well to make a miniatures first company, but if there's no game, what in God's name am I supposed to do with the things?
Display them? Well there's other, cheaper, better miniatures for simple display out there.
I want a half decent game I can actually take part in, afford at least the rules and not fear they'll become useless in a short period of time.
And another thing, the GW here is quite small, so playing there is unfeasible, so I go to one of the many FLGS here and am tempted by other games, many other games.
And I wish, I wish GW could give me the game I loved so much 10 years ago. I would buy a sisters of battle army new if it was like that, but it's not. One cannot cling on forever, even if the company exists another 5, 10 however long years.
I won't even guess at how long they will continue for, I don't know business.
But I will feel sad whenever the day comes they do go away (be it a year or ten or fifty)
Rommel44 wrote: Sad thing is if GW lowered there prices on all the models I guarantee that they would generate a lot more business. Never understood why so many businesses ignore that fact. GW will be alright, they are still a very popular game and will be for a long time to come (I hope).
It's the Harley Davidson business model. If you've ever owned a Harley then said feth this POS and sold it after millionth time you've been stranded on a roadside. That's it.
They have the kind of opposition they have never come across before.
More people are playing different games, this is largely due to accessibility being much better than before.
People are spending hundreds and in some cases thousands on other model companies, much of this through things like Kickstarter - that is less money being spent on GW models.
I think it will continue to drop for a while before leveling out, if it drops off altogether think the gaming community should be worried as a whole -however I doubt this very much as while we are now in abundance of smaller scale and skirmish games popping up left right and center there is still no really good large scale game to actually contend with 40k for the people who like this sort of game. 2 bad financial reports is not automatically indicative of the future trending.
I disagree lowering the price would generate a lot more business, it might help the pick up a little bit. People can be priced out sure - it's always been a expensive hobby. People who don't have the money or don't want to spend it have the options of smaller scale games.
Vineheart01 wrote: Even if GW releases 8th Edition and its such a major bomb that it gets the same sales as the Virtual Boy, GW wont go under. They will still sell models and such, because people will just taboo 8th edition and stick to 7th, since iirc thats what people did with Fantasy.
Europe, where WHFB is still active, used 8th and changed the terribly flawed rules to construct a competitive ruleset that is widely used at most tournaments.
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Palindrome wrote: GW can't manage to fit 40K's rules inside 120 (unless they have manged it in 7th which I doubt).
Europe, where WHFB is still active, used 8th and changed the terribly flawed rules to construct a competitive ruleset that is widely used at most tournaments.
Where would I be able to get an English copy of these modified rules.?
Europe, where WHFB is still active, used 8th and changed the terribly flawed rules to construct a competitive ruleset that is widely used at most tournaments.
Where would I be able to get an English copy of these modified rules.?
European Team Championship(ETC) rules comp. Rebalanced armies, rule calls made by the TO's instead of waiting for FAQ and stuff. Pretty nice, but even they tend to bone some armies and refuse to make them a bit less bad, judging some stuff on utterly abstract possibilitles(i.e. - beastmen; still pretty bad despite their attempts to balance them or Empire getting nerfed even if it was a middling army).
Palindrome wrote: I predict that 7th will have buoyed up GW's sales to a reasonable degree, enough to make this years report look decent at least, which is why 7th was released early. Next years report will have to rely on Fantasy 9th and things will be looking a lot less rosy then.
I'm not so sure about this one.
First, the LE run was 40% of the previous edition yet took over a month to sell out whereas 6th edition LEs were gone in hours.
Secondly, there have been two reports now from distributors of Dystopian Wars 2.0 outselling 40k rules by 6:1 in one case and 7:1 in the other. That is either an enormous volume of Dystopian Wars players or a dramatically smaller base of 40k players than in the past.
Third, there are many "rumours" floating around from people who know store managers working for GW, including myself, and I haven't heard or seen a single report yet that a store is making quota. I have read about or heard plenty of reports that sales are doing the worst they ever have for the stores. Additionally, it was floated that it is so bad GW has given up on "recruiting" new people to the HHHobby and instead are pushing store managers to sell anything to anyone who can fog a mirror.
Maybe the reports will prove this anecdotal evidence wrong, but I would honestly be surprised if that is the case. One other observation. Since about December of last year, GW seems to be struggling to keep inventory in stock, especially on new release items. They had a very poor showing on Wood Elf release, and the same thing is now happening with the Orc release. In my experience, this is from a company watching manufacturing inventories a bit too closely and consistently underestimating demand, or running things far short of demand just to avoid having inventory on the books.
Over the course of this year already, there just seem to be too many signs that things are not well for GW. If the assumptions Painting Buddha put forth on earnings does in fact play out as he surmised - then GW is in even worse shape than a skeptic such as myself even believes they will be.
Wayshuba wrote: Maybe the reports will prove this anecdotal evidence wrong, but I would honestly be surprised if that is the case. One other observation. Since about December of last year, GW seems to be struggling to keep inventory in stock, especially on new release items. They had a very poor showing on Wood Elf release, and the same thing is now happening with the Orc release. In my experience, this is from a company watching manufacturing inventories a bit too closely and consistently underestimating demand, or running things far short of demand just to avoid having inventory on the books.
Over the course of this year already, there just seem to be too many signs that things are not well for GW. If the assumptions Painting Buddha put forth on earnings does in fact play out as he surmised - then GW is in even worse shape than a skeptic such as myself even believes they will be.
Now that's an interesting concept. What if the reason things were limited edition is that they know that sales are dropping and don't want to be stuck with let's say 500,000 (pulling number out of my behind, don't read into it) copies and only sell 200,000, so instead they only make 150,000. That's a somewhat scary thought, if everything is limited stock because they are so afraid of misjudging the demand that they would rather sell out of something good than risk having surplus with nobody to buy it. Now I'm not a business person but wouldn't that indicate that things are extremely dire, if they're lowering supply out of fear of limited demand? Kind of like if you have a big restaurant, it's morale-crushing to have it empty or with only a handful of people, but if you have a small diner with only a few seats to fill...
GW "going under": yes.
With present decision making and methodology not changing it is a sure thing.
The difficulty is when, when there is no more fat to trim and they have to look elsewhere for available money.
That would be the time there is a chance for it to get better: when they look at how to increase sales.
I expect it to downturn where they will no longer be relevant: other games will be more of a draw (fantastic competition right now) and GW's capabilities will shrink and not be able to keep up to the releases they used to make.
GW is realizing there are too many second hand models out there and only the forced purchases (BRB, Codex) are making good money and book prices are not very competitive right now. $44 Shock attack gun "new model" really makes you want to look for the old versions.
Hope they hang in there a bit longer until they can get new board members that may have played 40k and FB but managed to like it.
Palindrome wrote:To put it another way a normal sized army for a 6mm mass battle game is now only slightly smaller in terms of model count than a 28mm skirmish game. As Epic infantry are mounted 5 to a base the number of individual components in the 40k army is actually far higher. This is an excellent illustrator that something has gone very badly wrong.
In an interview with the malifools podcast, Rick Priestly told a tale about when the higher ups at GW (which was much smaller at the time) went to a local fish market. All the other fish markets had closed down and they asked the guy how he stayed in business. His response was "sell more fish" and that become an internal corporate mantra. Sell more fish! So they made the rules for 40k into a vehicle for an ever increasing model count to sell as many miniatures as possible to people before they quit.
Funny that they didn't stop and think that fish vs miniatures are apples vs oranges in that more people eat fish than will ever buy a GW miniature so you need to pull in as many customers as possible and keep them coming back for more, not churn and burn. They may have realized this too late with the rapid release cycle but only in part with the pricing and day 1 dlc nonsense.
I believe him that it became a corporate mantra inside GW during the final years of 2nd edition though, because both 3rd edition 40k and 5th edition WFB were definitely "sell more fish" editions.
Biggest threat IMO comes from FFG's XWING taking customers. Could work both ways as a starter to the more flashy 40k. However, when I look at the 40k players vs XWing players, en balance, more mutants on our side of the fence. Plus the fluff is much more accessible.
3d printers pose a serious threat in the coming decade.
IP only goes so far, if the fluff doesn't expand for GW. you can only make so any video games... Plus movies (thus far) have not been compelling at all.
Chapterhouse lawsuit was minor IMO. GW did a greedy and seemingly poorly conceived strategic tack by changing rules to hurt a small but much more nimble company. Becoming a major sponsor a la "Red Bull" athletics would've been a much bolder market play. Twitch coverage and major events would've been my suggestion. Engage country by country competition wholly sanctioned by YOUR corp. There's money right there. Not now. But later. And... Acquisitions. Why not buy chapterhouse rather than fight? Crazy. Merchantilis vs Entreprneurialism.
pretre wrote: I look forward to coming back to this thread a couple years from now and quoting it for the newest GW is going out of business thread.
What, you're going to prove people like me who think they'll stick around right?
I swear people just remember posts they disagree with or extrapolate the most extreme criticisms into "the opinion of everyone."
If anything, I'd say this thread has largely been about how GW is not going under. Other than Wayshuba, is anyone actually predicting a demise of GW any time soon?
I think they'll just dig themselves into a hole and won't know how to dig themselves out.
It looks like the wargaming industry is actually growing, while GW isn't really growing if not losing it's fan base. After releasing a mainstream console game, two editions, 9 army updates, 6 supplements, dataslates, and 2 expansions it doesn't seem like the company is growing as much as one would expect.
You don't need to sink. You just need to be stuck in a leaky raft and bailing out water while others are turning coconuts into jet skis.
it seems like they split there shares in half and have gone up a ton since. thats insane. they've made so much money this year its not even funny. no way its going under. seems like they're spending tho, could be eternal crusade
pretre wrote: I look forward to coming back to this thread a couple years from now and quoting it for the newest GW is going out of business thread.
Keep your words short and sweet little dinosaur, as you may just have to eat them.
I already bet someone on it and will certainly eat my words if I'm wrong. Of course, I won't be wrong.
doktor_g wrote:Biggest threat IMO comes from FFG's XWING taking customers.
Not sure if serious...
I'm drunk.
Oh, nevermind.
frozenwastes wrote:What, you're going to prove people like me who think they'll stick around right?
Yep.
I swear people just remember posts they disagree with or extrapolate the most extreme criticisms into "the opinion of everyone."
If it wasn't clear from my post and previous posts on the topic, I think the 'GW is going under' thing is hogwash. Just as it was with the last thread and the thread before that, going back for the last 20 years.
If anything, I'd say this thread has largely been about how GW is not going under. Other than Wayshuba, is anyone actually predicting a demise of GW any time soon?
Is Wayshuba the one who keeps posting the death spiral graphic or the other guy who keeps hawking that one blog?
it seems like they split there shares in half and have gone up a ton since. thats insane. they've made so much money this year its not even funny. no way its going under. seems like they're spending tho, could be eternal crusade
frozenwastes wrote: I believe him that it became a corporate mantra inside GW during the final years of 2nd edition though, because both 3rd edition 40k and 5th edition WFB were definitely "sell more fish" editions.
The shift towards bigger games from 2nd to 3rd ed 40K wasn't entirely corporate driven.
While 2nd ed started out as a small skirmish game, what happened as it aged and people got more comfortable with it is that they wanted to play bigger and bigger games... but the 2nd ed rules got fairly clunky fairly quickly when you went large. So GW stripped back the rules and made it a game that scaled up more easily.
It's easy to be cynical and assume that these decisions are all based on pure sales ... although from a certain perspective, giving people the games system that they want is all about sales. Which is ultimately where GW appear to have lost their way. Somewhere between 3rd edition and 6th edition (I would say right about the time Codex: Grey Knights was published, personally), they stopped writing the game that their players wanted, and started writing the game that the studio wanted.
it seems like they split there shares in half and have gone up a ton since. thats insane. they've made so much money this year its not even funny. no way its going under. seems like they're spending tho, could be eternal crusade
It was no split. It was a gap down upon a bad interim report. Then they posted an update that sales were around what was expected and then they announced a dividend and it's climbed back up. It bounced off 650 and now it's on it's way back down, who knows how far.
insaniak wrote: Somewhere between 3rd edition and 6th edition (I would say right about the time Codex: Grey Knights was published, personally), they stopped writing the game that their players wanted, and started writing the game that the studio wanted.
I lol'd at this. I know you were probably being serious, but still...
I don't know enough about business to make any sort of definitive judgement on the future of GW, but I also can't see them sticking around for another 10 years with their current business plan.
I wouldn't shed a tear if they went under, but I'd also be quite happy if they turned it all around and made a game worth the price they're asking, at half the cost.
Part of me is hoping this financial report is poor, as maybe that'll be enough of a wake up call to change some of their business policies/shake up the studio. I'm not sure how the sales of 7th will help, but I guess time will tell.
pretre wrote: I lol'd at this. I know you were probably being serious, but still...
Yup, totally serious.
I've been playing since the early days of 2nd edition. For much of that time, while they didn't always get it right, the studio at least put some effort into listening to what the players wanted. 3rd edition saw a shift towards bigger games. 4th edition added back some of the detail that was lost when the game was 'streamlined' and improved the close combat and vehicle rules. 5th edition saw an even bigger emphasis on vehicles and big games. All of this was driven at least as much by the players as by the studio - while obviously not universal, it was the game that many players wanted.
Then came 6th edition. By this point, GW isn't listening any more. They've closed off communication with their customers, they've stopped talking about upcoming releases and mingling with players over actual games, and are just pumping out releases that try to cram as much of 2nd edition as they can into the current game.
Anybody who has been around for more than a decade is fairly inured to the price complaints by now. GW's stuff has always been expensive. So it's hard to pin the current exponential exodus on pricing. But I'm seeing an awful lot of people walking out on the basis that the game has turned into something that they're just not interested in... far more so than any previous edition change.
The logical conclusion then is that these latest changes aren't what the players wanted.
Is Wayshuba the one who keeps posting the death spiral graphic or the other guy who keeps hawking that one blog?
So there are two people who think GW is on the verge? Well, that's twice as many as I thought.
I think GW is on a path they'll eventually need to find their way off of, but I'm not sure they're being forced to change yet. Kirby just paid himself another 400K in dividends and they might have figured out they can sell people the game over again every two years. And that they can split up codex sales so people will have to pay way, way more if they want all the rules for their army. And the move of elites to 5 miniature boxes shows that people really will keep buying GW plastics at Forgeworld prices.
I think the reason I take exception to these posts like "I'm just going to show this thread in a couple years to show you all how wrong you were!" or the posting of an image of homer predicting the end of the world or the "GW go under? pshaw!" posts is that they don't actually engage in the material being discussed or deal with the topic except to dismiss or belittle those participating in the discussion.
There will come a point though, where GW can't cut costs any further. Where if they dismiss one more employee, they'll be lacking in the ability to function as a business. And there's a point where a new release is priced so high not enough people will buy it. They're not there yet. But Wayshuba's point does stand: companies very rarely realize they have passed that point until after they've done it.
GW will eventually have to adjust their business model. In a way, they're trying to do that right now by getting enough single employee stores and enough margin from direct only to make it all work. They're shifting to a hard sales and direct sales model rather than a community building model and are part way through implementing that transition. We will see if it even works over the next two financial reports. Either the stores stick and the admin staff they've dismissed bolters sales and keeps costs down enough or they don't.
frozenwastes wrote: they might have figured out they can sell people the game over again every two years. And that they can split up codex sales so people will have to pay way, way more if they want all the rules for their army. And the move of elites to 5 miniature boxes shows that people really will keep buying GW plastics at Forgeworld prices.
Have they figured out how many customers they lost implementing these? It seems to be substantial.
frozenwastes wrote: There will come a point though, where GW can't cut costs any further. Where if they dismiss one more employee, they'll be lacking in the ability to function as a business.
They're arguably already there.
At least on the retail front... In this day and age of retail convenience, they have a whole bunch of stores worldwide that are closed two days a week, and that can't open for business if their single employee is ill.
And then they wonder why people are buying stuff on the internet instead.
frozenwastes wrote: they might have figured out they can sell people the game over again every two years. And that they can split up codex sales so people will have to pay way, way more if they want all the rules for their army. And the move of elites to 5 miniature boxes shows that people really will keep buying GW plastics at Forgeworld prices.
Have they figured out how many customers they lost implementing these? It seems to be substantial.
In the half-year, Kirby alludes to it but discounts it as transitional adjustment issues that will be/have been worked out.
I know this was talked about in another thread but...my god, they really tanked in the half-year. Earnings per share in the previous year was 51.5p and this half-year is just 17.7p and includes the heaviest sale period of the year (holiday season) no wonder they pulled out all the stops and have just been flooding product through the system since. In a direct comparison it was 25.6p the previous year's half-year report.
Have they figured out how many players they lost implementing these? It seems to be substantial.
It may be substantial, but with sufficient price hikes on new releases, they can make up the revenue. There are also a few ideas that have been floating around the net which might explain their seeing of "players" as being lesser importance.
1) Most of their customers don't actually play their game. Jervis said this in an interview over 5 years ago now at UK Games Day (2009, I think). He said their core customer was a craft hobbyist who rarely, if ever, put their models on the table to play.
2) Ex-GW employees from the post-LotR era said that GW believes their typical customer only sticks around for a couple of years. So then they should be releasing new editions more regularly so that everyone can have the opportunity to buy the game again before they quit at least once in their time as GW customers. At first you might think this contradicts 1), but remember it's not about having them buy the game to play it, but to buy the game with the idea that they might play it and thus need models.
3) GW really does view the hobby as the purchasing of GW products. They said it at Games Day, they said it in the CHS lawsuit, on the stand, under oath. What do they care about the number of players as long as enough people are still involved in the real hobby, buying their stuff.
4) New releases sell great. And Space Marines. That's it. This is from the CHS lawsuit sales spreadsheet. New products sell great and then drop off. Space Marine releases don't drop off as fast, but they still do. And now with Unbound they can sell everyone on every release as you can just use it in every army. No more awkard "what army do you play?" sales barrier. Now it's a sales feature. Play Dark Angels? Imagine how awesome these new orks will work with your army!"
Most people judge GW's health by the health of the local gaming scene. I think the "Games" in Games Workshop hasn't really been present in a long, long while and their whole complete package isn't about good game play or developing a community of gamers, but of selling people on an idea that keeps them buying. I think Dakka's population might be very representative of gamers as a whole but very unrepresentative of GW's customers as a whole.
While I don't think GW is in imminent danger of going down, they are in a new exciting, challenging environment, from a competitive standpoint. The industry has never had it so good. Stuff like plastics and digital design tools are accessible to just about anyone. Start-ups and new product development are more readily funded with stuff like crowd-sourcing. And GW itself is partly responsible for the amazing state of the industry, thanks to the small legion of alumni starting up or joining other companies. Then there's the amazing exciting new players that pop up now and then, such as Warmachine, Flames of War, and X-Wing. But these are all fairly different games. So while they are still competitors vying for the same wallet in the same kinds of target market, GW's core games can differentiate fairly well, not to mention the world-leading fan base they already have. I think there are enough threats facing GW, and the challenge for them is a strategy for sustainable growth. But going down? Don't think so.
jonolikespie wrote: He also asked if anyone remembered pokemon like less than a month after X and Y made more money in their opening week than GW does in a good year.
That was funny.
One thing he is right about though, is that Pokemon is no longer a direct threat to GW. GW is doing what they can to isolate and segment their sales away from being directly competing with pokemon cards at your local shop. By moving more and more direct only and relying on GW's customer base's penchant for buying new releases, GW has been able to capture more margins and segment themselves from the larger market.
The end result has been giving away a massive amount of market share, while using higher prices and the pumping of new releases to keep revenue up.
Notice that GW no longer publishes sales number by channel. Hopefully they do in the next report, but it's no likely. If they did, it might show a rather nasty drop in trade sales as GW goes more and more direct only.
The way I see it, since I sold off/out, is two things:
1) GW doesn't tank. I'm actively playing better games, painting awesome models, and enjoying hucking dice with far less disputes per game. Most of my disputes arise from learning 3 games at once because I'm crazy, not because the rules are bad. I'm usually wrong, I apologize, they laugh, we keep going at it.
2) GW does tank. See #1, but add that I probably made way more money selling off my 40k/Fantasy stuff now than before they tanked. If another company buys the IP and remakes the game into something awesome, then I will gladly reward that company with new sales of an army.
So it's win-win for me. I think they're on a dark course of obscurity or failure. If they can somehow buyout and go private, they'll drift into obscurity as a model company who maybe rises from the ashes if they remove the offending parties and come with hat-in-hand. Or they stay public, try to stick to their guns, and go out of business.
frozenwastes wrote: GW is doing what they can to isolate and segment their sales away from being directly competing with pokemon cards at your local shop. By moving more and more direct only and relying on GW's customer base's penchant for buying new releases, GW has been able to capture more margins and segment themselves from the larger market.
The problem is that, outside of the UK, this is an incredibly stupid plan. The US market can't support enough GW stores for them to bring all GW customers out of independent stores and into GW's own stores, so they're never going to eliminate the competition. The absolute best they can hope for is that certain geographical areas (centered around the lowest rent in town) are somewhat isolated, but even then those customers are likely to interact with GW customers from the independent stores, friends that play non-GW games, etc.
The end result has been giving away a massive amount of market share, while using higher prices and the pumping of new releases to keep revenue up.
Which is just suicide in a social hobby like 40k. Sure, those price increases make up for the lost sales volume in the immediate future, but the lost market share makes it a lot harder to recruit new players to replace the ones they lose (and yes, they will lose players). And as the number of players continues to drop it makes it even harder to recruit replacements, driving the death spiral faster and faster.
Peregrine wrote:The problem is that, outside of the UK, this is an incredibly stupid plan.
GW has just full-on failed to achieve anything like the market penetration they had in the UK anywhere else. Even when they worked closely and fairly with trade partners in the US, they still never got anywhere close to the sales levels per population they did in the UK. They must, by now, realize it's just not going to happen for them.
The US market can't support enough GW stores for them to bring all GW customers out of independent stores and into GW's own stores, so they're never going to eliminate the competition.
They don't need to. And they certainly don't need to blanket the country with them. They just need to identify good locations for their stores so they get enough profitable locations rather than dominate the market. if population centres without enough going on to justify a GW store want to be serviced through independant trade accounts, GW will supply those guys, insist on draconian trade terms and then use their direct only approach to steal as many customers as possible.
The absolute best they can hope for is that certain geographical areas (centered around the lowest rent in town) are somewhat isolated, but even then those customers are likely to interact with GW customers from the independent stores, friends that play non-GW games, etc.
And the question is, can GW develop enough of these sort of locations and have them be profitable to keep their revenue up in this new segmented market + direct sales approach? I think they can.
Which is just suicide in a social hobby like 40k. Sure, those price increases make up for the lost sales volume in the immediate future, but the lost market share makes it a lot harder to recruit new players to replace the ones they lose (and yes, they will lose players). And as the number of players continues to drop it makes it even harder to recruit replacements, driving the death spiral faster and faster.
GW is in a managed decline. They are shrinking their player base in exchange for qualified sales prospects. And they are ahead of the game on cutting costs.
This obviously can't continue forever and they will reach a point where shedding more customers will lead to too many lost customers, but is that point really here yet? Their new campaign box set is selling out in preorder. And while you or I may instinctively think "then make more," I think their response will be that the next similar product will be priced higher. If they sell out in preorder, they made it too good of a deal.
To bring this back to the social issue, let's say Warmachine/Hordes has 100 players. And GW has 500. These numbers are obviously made up. GW shrinking to 250 or PP growing to 250 doesn't actually mean suicide or success for either company. Many companies don't manage expansion correctly and hit cash flow issues and have huge problems. Others can manage declines properly and stay profitable. if X players is enough for PP to have a vibrant community and a profitable business, why can't it be that way for GW, but with GW's added advantage of capturing more of the margin (PP rarely sells direct) and their completely paid for, in house, plastic production?
GW is on a path to irrelevancy to the wider hobby. But what if they may be finding a way to make the wider industry completely irrelevant to them? Do I think it's the right path? No way. Do I think it means they can't make it work? Again no. I think there are enough people to sell out their new box sets in preorder. I think enough people will pay Forgeworld prices for GW plastics.
Would I rather be wrong? Absolutely. I would love it if financial hardship forced GW to change, but we're not there yet. And the question is are we even close? I think the time to call it as being close is after GW has fully rolled out their new plan and had their only result be failure. They're still mid stream on their restructuring but from now on will have an even lower overhead as they trimmed entire national offices worth of admin staff.
frozenwastes wrote: Their new campaign box set is selling out in preorder. And while you or I may instinctively think "then make more," I think their response will be that the next similar product will be priced higher. If they sell out in preorder, they made it too good of a deal.
A product selling out on pre-order doesn't actually tell us anything useful without knowing how many were available on pre-order.
frozenwastes wrote: And they certainly don't need to blanket the country with them.
Except they do, because even medium-size towns in the US can easily have 2-3 FLGS within reasonable driving distance. If you don't blanket the country with GW stores then you don't create that isolation you're talking about.
They just need to identify good locations for their stores so they get enough profitable locations rather than dominate the market.
Except that's not possible. I live in a medium-size city with a single GW store and 3-5 FLGS within reasonable driving distance (depending on where exactly you are in the city). So let's look at how much money is available, assuming there are three independent stores in the area:
$X is the region's total sales of GW products
$Y is the region's total sales of non-GW products (MTG, comics, etc)
$Z is the average cost of running a game store (rent, salaries, etc)
Prior to the arrival of the GW store each store was making ($X/3 + $Y/3 - $Z) in profit. Once the GW store arrives the FLGS make ($X/4 + $Y/3 - $Z), while the GW store makes ($X/4 - $Z). The arrival of the GW store costs the other stores some profits, but the overall effect is probably fairly small since non-GW products are the majority of sales. Meanwhile the GW store is probably struggling to make any profit at all since it is selling so much less.
And now here's where you point out that the GW store doesn't have to pay the full $Z, and can still make money based on lower operating costs. Sure, they can do that, but then who would go to a GW store? Now you've created a FLGS that only sells products from one company, has much less gaming space, always sells at full retail price, is only open five days a week for limited hours, and randomly closes when the single employee can't come to work or needs a lunch break. Now the GW store isn't going to be making the full $X/4 from GW products because they're providing an inferior experience and even people who live near the GW store will be willing to drive the extra distance to a better store.
So, the end result is that GW might be able to find locations where they can make a net profit, but they're never going to build the kind of "the hobby happens in GW stores and only in GW stores" system that they have in the UK.
if population centres without enough going on to justify a GW store want to be serviced through independant trade accounts
It's not just population centers without enough going on to justify a GW store we're talking about. Population centers with enough going on to justify a GW store tend to have multiple independent stores already. So no matter where GW tries to expand their own stores they're going to be competing with other games.
GW will supply those guys, insist on draconian trade terms and then use their direct only approach to steal as many customers as possible.
And that's just plain stupid. GW can't dominate the market with their own stores, and those independent stores are vital to recruiting enough new players to keep the company profitable. Treating them like an enemy to be destroyed is suicide for a business in GW's position, at least in the long term.
And the question is, can GW develop enough of these sort of locations and have them be profitable to keep their revenue up in this new segmented market + direct sales approach?
Short term? Sure. Long term? Hell no. GW isn't going to be getting any replacement customers for the people who leave when they have a handful of stores in middle of nowhere areas with minimal traffic, while all of the RPG/MTG/etc players who get an interest in miniatures games are going to their competition instead (since they're playing MTG or whatever in a store that doesn't sell GW games). A few existing customers might continue to visit the store, but it will be a steadily decreasing number until GW can't even pay the rent.
GW is in a managed decline.
This seems to be another term for "death spiral"?
This obviously can't continue forever and they will reach a point where shedding more customers will lead to too many lost customers, but is that point really here yet?
Not yet, but that's not the point. Nobody is seriously expecting GW to fail overnight, the point is that their long-term future is in serious doubt. They're sacrificing future success to pay tomorrow's bills, and once that damage is done it's doubtful that it's possible to repair it.
GW shrinking to 250 or PP growing to 250 doesn't actually mean suicide or success for either company.
It really does, because you have to look at the new player factor. When GW has 5x the customers they're going to get the majority of new customers. If a MTG player starts thinking miniatures are interesting and sees a thriving 40k community and a couple people playing Infinity once a month they're probably going to start playing 40k. If you make those numbers equal then it's much less likely that they'll pick 40k, especially given the incredibly high up-front costs for a new player. That puts the trend strongly against GW: not only are they losing market share, they're almost guaranteed to continue losing market share.
if X players is enough for PP to have a vibrant community and a profitable business, why can't it be that way for GW, but with GW's added advantage of capturing more of the margin (PP rarely sells direct) and their completely paid for, in house, plastic production?
Because GW's games suck. Their rules are garbage, the models are inconsistent, and the cost to play the game is insane. They only have two advantages that keep people playing: the amazing fluff, and the fact that it's the game that everyone else plays and therefore finding opponents is easy. Other companies are able to survive with a smaller customer base because the games are better and they don't depend on "well, I guess it's what everyone else is doing" to recruit new players.
I think enough people will pay Forgeworld prices for GW plastics.
People will pay FW prices for GW plastics while the community exists. I seriously doubt you're going to find enough customers willing to pay those prices when they're the only person in the area who plays the game and everyone else has moved on to something else. And once that person quits (and they inevitably will, very few people remain in a hobby permanently) there won't be anyone to replace them.
Peregrine wrote:If you don't blanket the country with GW stores then you don't create that isolation you're talking about.
The isolation isn't market domination. The isolation is the idea that GW has their customer base that's largely ignorant of the larger hobby and knows about miniature gaming from them and buys just from them. GW could have one store and still have that isolation/segmented market. But they want it on a larger scale. So they're rolling out their new retail strategy and they are part way through doing it.
Prior to the arrival of the GW store each store was making ($X/3 + $Y/3 - $Z) in profit. Once the GW store arrives the FLGS make ($X/4 + $Y/3 - $Z), while the GW store makes ($X/4 - $Z). The arrival of the GW store costs the other stores some profits, but the overall effect is probably fairly small since non-GW products are the majority of sales. Meanwhile the GW store is probably struggling to make any profit at all since it is selling so much less.
This is the exact opposite of the segmented/isolated market approach I am talking about. I'm talking about the GW store opening up and doing it's own hard selling and building of it's own customer base as its own retail entity. Not just taking a small share of the existing market. Now after that, they will still take their share of the existing market. Other store will start getting short shipped on preorders and more and more will go direct only. The local gaming community will quickly realize that if they reliably want their product on release day, they better deal directly with GW.
but they're never going to build the kind of "the hobby happens in GW stores and only in GW stores" system that they have in the UK.
Not across the country, but on a store by store basis they sure can. And the stores that stay open through hitting their sales targets will be doing exactly that. My local one, for example, is full of 14 to 18 year olds all buying there. They've created the segmented market in an area drastically less populated than most of the US.
Population centers with enough going on to justify a GW store tend to have multiple independent stores already. So no matter where GW tries to expand their own stores they're going to be competing with other games.
Which is why they're going to try their best to create their own parallel customer base who's ignorant of non-GW options. Is it what I would do? No. But it's too early to say whether or not they got the right idea yet.
GW is in a managed decline.
This seems to be another term for "death spiral"?
Maybe I'll switch my terms when they actually post a loss and not a profit.
If a MTG player starts thinking miniatures are interesting and sees a thriving 40k community and a couple people playing Infinity once a month they're probably going to start playing 40k.
Or some 15 year old who's only passingly familiar with MTG and totally ignorant of miniature wargaming will walk into their shop, get sold using the demo sales process combined with traditional hard selling and spend the next couple of years giving GW all their part time job money, B-day and Xmas presents, etc.,.
If you make those numbers equal then it's much less likely that they'll pick 40k, especially given the incredibly high up-front costs for a new player.
If they fail to segment their market, then yes, I agree.
That puts the trend strongly against GW: not only are they losing market share, they're almost guaranteed to continue losing market share.
As I've said, GW is becoming irrelevant to the larger hobby/industry with every step in this direction. The far more interesting question is whether or not GW will succeed in making the larger hobby/industry irrelevant to them.
Because GW's games suck. Their rules are garbage, the models are inconsistent, and the cost to play the game is insane.
This is where customer ignorance comes into play. Sucks compared to what? inconsistent models compared to what? Cost compared to what? If they can sell someone who's ignorant of the larger hobby on their games, then they can rely on the sunk cost fallacy to keep them around for a couple years until they finally quit.
I also am beginning to think that GW's approach of rules only mattering in so far as they can sell models might have some merit with their target audience. If some teenage kid gets his stuff painted/built and gives the game a try, it'll probably be stupid fun and they'll be happy. If they don't quite get enough stuff together to play a full sized game before they quit, then well, that's what GW is expecting anyway.
I think the mistake you might be making is assuming their target audience are life long gamers like you or me who value games based on their merits in actual play whereas GW's target audience is actually teenage boys (stretching into early college age) that don't yet have the refined taste of someone with a lot of gaming experience.
People will pay FW prices for GW plastics while the community exists. I seriously doubt you're going to find enough customers willing to pay those prices when they're the only person in the area who plays the game and everyone else has moved on to something else.
Each GW store can have their own facebook page and runs their own events and can create their own little micro-community. Nicely segmented away from the larger industry and forums like Dakka. But even here, were everyone gets told about alternatives, the forum is still largely dominated by 40k. I keep seeing people post "I just started 40k" threads. Or post in the painting forum about how no one around them really plays yet they have 3000 points of a couple different armies listed in their signatures. If people are still often preferring 40k to the alternatives here on DakkaDakka, despite all their chances to be exposed to alternatives, imagine how much more reliably people will buy GW stuff when they don't even know of any other option.
I've accepted that my voice is not one that matters to GW. I'm not their target market. They fired me as a customer with the C&D letter from their lawyer related to using "bloodbowl" in a domain name. I wish that a company that legally threatens their most ardent fans would just die over night, but I'm just not their target audience anymore. And I don't think well informed 30-somethings are either.
We're not too far off from their next report. I think they'll have about 121 million for their yearly revenue. That means their customer and player base is continuing to decline. I think, however, that their costs will be down quite a bit as their closing of regional HQs will finally hit the books in this next report. So I think profits will be slightly higher than last half, but down compared to the previous year overall.
frozenwastes wrote: The isolation isn't market domination. The isolation is the idea that GW has their customer base that's largely ignorant of the larger hobby and knows about miniature gaming from them and buys just from them. GW could have one store and still have that isolation/segmented market. But they want it on a larger scale. So they're rolling out their new retail strategy and they are part way through doing it.
Except the point is that GW can't do this without market domination. It isn't 1980 anymore, the internet exists and GW's target market are already playing MTG/video games/etc. Producing an inferior product and depending on your customers remaining ignorant of your competition is a losing strategy in 2014.
Also, any chance this strategy had of working died the moment GW abandoned high-traffic mall stores in favor of putting their stores in the cheapest middle of nowhere strip mall they can find. An isolated GW store can't survive long-term because GW has no advertising and very little random traffic to recruit from. The only way they are ever going to have access to enough customers to replace their losses is to participate in the larger hobby community.
I'm talking about the GW store opening up and doing it's own hard selling and building of it's own customer base as its own retail entity.
But GW can't do this. Modern GW stores have nothing to attract customers, so I am extremely skeptical that they can build their own customer base without any ties to the larger gaming community. And this is going to be even more true once GW implements your suggested "sell a few boxes at a high price" strategy and every parent who happens to have a kid walk into a GW store says "sorry, but we can't afford to pay $1000 for you to play space marines, let's get you an xbox game instead".
Other store will start getting short shipped on preorders and more and more will go direct only. The local gaming community will quickly realize that if they reliably want their product on release day, they better deal directly with GW.
This is great for tomorrow's financial report, since the current customers will be forced to buy direct from GW and give better profit margins. But throwing away GW's presence in independent stores is market share suicide, which means that as those current customers leave the game GW is going to struggle to replace them. Meanwhile the independent stores are quite happily selling people Warmachine/Infinity/etc. What GW needs to understand is that they aren't in a position of power here. GW needs independent stores. Independent stores do not need GW.
Which is why they're going to try their best to create their own parallel customer base who's ignorant of non-GW options.
You can not do this in 2014. And you certainly can't do it with the hardcore collectors who will keep paying no matter how expensive the models get.
Or some 15 year old who's only passingly familiar with MTG and totally ignorant of miniature wargaming will walk into their shop, get sold using the demo sales process combined with traditional hard selling and spend the next couple of years giving GW all their part time job money, B-day and Xmas presents, etc.,.
But why is this kid walking into a GW shop if they are totally ignorant of wargaming? The store is in a random strip mall where hardly anyone will find it unless they know about GW already and make an effort to go there, and if they're buying any MTG cards it's from some other gaming store. And how is this kid going to afford the game when GW has to keep raising prices to absurd levels to make up for their shrinking sales volume?
And yet i keep seeing people post "I just started 40k" threads. Or post in the painting forum about how no one around them really plays yet they have 3000 points of a couple different armies listed in their signatures. Each GW store can have their own facebook page and runs their own events and can create their own little micro-community. Nicely segmented away from the larger industry and forums like Dakka. But even here, were everyone gets told about alternatives, the forum is still largely dominated by 40k.
Yes, but that's true because it's still relatively early in the death spiral. GW is still the biggest company in the market for now, so it's not surprising that they'll still dominate forum traffic, or that even people who have mostly moved on to other games still have a bit of interest in GW. But that won't be true if GW follows your proposed route of becoming a niche hobby within a niche hobby.
And as for those facebook pages, congratulations, you just got all of your customers to look at facebook ads for other games. Or maybe someone posts a link to a forum thread with painting information, and people also read other forum topics about other games. You just can't create the kind of isolation you're talking about in 2014.
Peregrine wrote: Except the point is that GW can't do this without market domination. It isn't 1980 anymore, the internet exists and GW's target market are already playing MTG/video games/etc. Producing an inferior product and depending on your customers remaining ignorant of your competition is a losing strategy in 2014.
I do actually hope you're right. If only out of the desire to live in a sane world, but I'm not sure we do. Despite it being the information age and GW's target audience being the first generation to truly grow up with information technology available 24/7, there may actually be something to a person-to-person sales strategy that relies on the target being relatively uninformed about a niche hobby.
Also, any chance this strategy had of working died the moment GW abandoned high-traffic mall stores in favor of putting their stores in the cheapest middle of nowhere strip mall they can find. An isolated GW store can't survive long-term because GW has no advertising and very little random traffic to recruit from. The only way they are ever going to have access to enough customers to replace their losses is to participate in the larger hobby community.
If GW fails to get the right locations for their strategy, it's not going to work. Perhaps the ideal spots are not in the malls, but just off the malls. Where people driving or taking transit to the shopping centre will see them on the way in, but they won't have to pay the higher rent of being right in the mall.
But GW can't do this. Modern GW stores have nothing to attract customers, so I am extremely skeptical that they can build their own customer base without any ties to the larger gaming community.
I was to. Until I heard about GW stores that consistently hit their sales targets and are full of teenagers each Saturday and once or twice during the week. Now I think if they can replicate what works in one store across their chain, they can make it all work.
I originally criticized their "customer experience" position as being about the wrong thing. It's a job position they advertised a short while ago about figuring out the customer experience of buying "wonderful miniatures." I said they instead need to rethink the entire customer experience of the product itself from first contact through purchasing and years into the future. A complete revamp from the ground up.
Now I think this position is one where the person will go to the GW stores that are working. The ones that are hitting their sales targets. And figure out what they have in common. The position made no sense in terms of the larger hobby or industry as it assumed there was nothing wrong with the product itself, but it makes perfect sense in terms of what they are trying to accomplish with their retail restructuring.
And this is going to be even more true once GW implements your suggested "sell a few boxes at a high price" strategy
emphasis mine
Wait one minute. It is not at all my suggestion. At all. It's my description of what they are doing now and what they have been doing since they ended their program of yearly price adjustments and switched to price increases on new releases. It's not *my* plan. My plan would be to offer a great product at a good price and have an entire customer experience that would be about making each model feel as valuable as possible and a set of rules that would be amazing to play at every size, especially supporting smaller games to lower the barrier to entry. That's what I think works in the hobby gaming industry. GW is trying to segment themselves from that industry, so their plan is very, very different from what I would do.
This is great for tomorrow's financial report, since the current customers will be forced to buy direct from GW and give better profit margins. But throwing away GW's presence in independent stores is market share suicide, which means that as those current customers leave the game GW is going to struggle to replace them. Meanwhile the independent stores are quite happily selling people Warmachine/Infinity/etc. What GW needs to understand is that they aren't in a position of power here. GW needs independent stores. Independent stores do not need GW.
Absolutely. In the hobby gaming industry. GW is retreating from that market while attempting to develop their own parallel market.
You can not do this in 2014. And you certainly can't do it with the hardcore collectors who will keep paying no matter how expensive the models get.
We'll have to wait and see. I think they can.
And how is this kid going to afford the game when GW has to keep raising prices to absurd levels to make up for their shrinking sales volume?
When I was a teen and bought some 40k stuff, I did it by saving money I made babysitting and then asking for stuff for Christmas and my birthday. The only difference between me and a kid who's buying now is he'll get loss models for the same money. Although to be fair, I had to get both the 40k starter and the dark millennium expansion. In inflation adjusted dollars, they won't be paying that much more. GW tried cheap starters with the original launch of Black Reach. The price of that starter was quickly adjusted upwards.
Yes, but that's true because it's still relatively early in the death spiral.
Then let's watch the drop off in GW related forum activity together over the coming year.
But that won't be true if GW follows your proposed route of becoming a niche hobby within a niche hobby.
Again, not *my* proposed route. It's what I think they are doing. I happen to actually like the wider gaming industry and think success there would be superior to attempting to make an artificial parallel market that's reliant on customer ignorance and hard sales tactics.
GW grew to become a world wide company by working with existing stores and distribution channels in an established marketplace. I think their current draconian control of trade terms and distribution is the exact opposite of what a manufacturer should do.
You just can't create the kind of isolation you're talking about in 2014.
I hope you're right. Yet I keep encountering people who are totally inside of GW's ecosystem.
it seems like they split there shares in half and have gone up a ton since. thats insane. they've made so much money this year its not even funny. no way its going under. seems like they're spending tho, could be eternal crusade
I don't remember GW having done a share split this year.
The share price tells you nothing except for what price people want to buy and sell the shares at.
GW make nothing at all when a share is traded. Only the seller makes money and then only if he bought the share at a lower price.
it seems like they split there shares in half and have gone up a ton since. thats insane. they've made so much money this year its not even funny. no way its going under. seems like they're spending tho, could be eternal crusade
I don't remember GW having done a share split this year.
They haven't. Poolatka doesn't realise that what he's looking at isn't the result of a share split, just GW's abysmal financials for the previous half year.
Makumba wrote: Why doesn't GW just make all the FLGS go out of buissness. Then they could take over the market and their stores wouldn't run non GW stuff.
Why don't the FLGS make GW go out of business?
Seriously though, my FLGS are one of the main reason why the only Games Workshop store in a 30 mile radius of where I live closed its doors a long time ago. FLGS are fun places to be: friends, food, many different types of games and people. Sometimes I'll show up without even buying anything and chat for a while and nobody cares. GW-official stores continually try to push gak on you, and just don't have the same friendly atmosphere. Not to mention the more questionable rumors I've heard about some GW stores, like auctioning off tables.
If I had a choice to go to a FLGS or a Games Workshop store, say if they were next to each other, I'd quickly forget about the GW store.
It appears that their real life demise matches with their fiction: The place where status quo is God, progress is nonexistent, and common sense is so rare it's an OP superpower.
Makumba wrote: Why doesn't GW just make all the FLGS go out of buissness. Then they could take over the market and their stores wouldn't run non GW stuff.
Why don't the FLGS make GW go out of business?
Seriously though, my FLGS are one of the main reason why the only Games Workshop store in a 30 mile radius of where I live closed its doors a long time ago. FLGS are fun places to be: friends, food, many different types of games and people. Sometimes I'll show up without even buying anything and chat for a while and nobody cares. GW-official stores continually try to push gak on you, and just don't have the same friendly atmosphere. Not to mention the more questionable rumors I've heard about some GW stores, like auctioning off tables.
If I had a choice to go to a FLGS or a Games Workshop store, say if they were next to each other, I'd quickly forget about the GW store.
IMO, GW should close their stores and let the FLGS do the hard work. GW doesn't need to promote 'the hobby' as a whole any more, there's plenty of other games now to serve as a entry level for them. The brick and mortar they are invested in is a massive expenditure I don't think they need anymore, much better ways of advertising now.
They should be selling their IP out to merchandise.
They need to take a step back and move into modern business.
On the subject of not really talking to their customers- with what happened on the DEFB page I'm not really surprised. Some 40k fans are real idiots, more so than other disgruntled fans. They had a medium open and the fans abused it. Some poor guy had to work on a Sunday night removing all offensive posts... and we know other instances of... OTT fandom.
I know of around 4 FLGS who went down , because GW was late with shipments of stuff and I know the same happened in other cities here.
And while wasn't there when I happened, the story goes that driving shops bankrupt was what they did in UK in the 90s.
Maybe it is different here. To sell food you would need to have a special promision from the local administration and it both costs a lot ,and comes with our version of FaDA controls which close the shop for a week or two. Playing other games also ain't so easy , when PP or CB more or less give central europe the finger.
Makumba wrote: Why doesn't GW just make all the FLGS go out of buissness. Then they could take over the market and their stores wouldn't run non GW stuff.
Because most FLGS, at least in the US, would hardly notice if GW disappeared. MTG is the cash cow, and they've also got RPGs/comics/other miniatures games/etc to add even more revenue. Obviously nobody wants to throw away the profit from selling GW stuff, but with such a diverse range of products to sell they aren't dependent on any one non-MTG product to stay in business. GW, on the other hand, needs those stores to cover sufficient geographical area with access to GW products and bring in new customers, something they can't do with their own stores. Which makes their decision to screw around with independent stores rather suicidal.
I remember the early days of my business and pitching a direct selling model (i.e., sales people) to investors. Didn't go over well because it is an "expensive" way of acquiring customers and frequently doesn't pay off unless you are selling very expensive B2B products. So we struggled with finding a much more reliable and cost effective customer acquisition model and eventually found one.
The same can be applied to GW. While it is true they make more margin selling it themselves, it also comes with a much higher cost of acquisition. Is the current GW store model cost effective in acquiring customers? I would argue that the strategy they are pursuing is folly as, looking at their financials, maintaining those stores is becoming a larger and larger percentage of their costs. Where the stress frequently comes in these models is selling enough to cover the churn. Eventually your customer base grows to a point where you churn a certain amount of customers a month and your new sales must a least cover that or the decline happens. To stop that decline, you keep hiring more and more sales people (or in GWs case more and more stores). This is why companies like LinkedIn still haven't turned a profit, because their solid revenue growth has come at the expense of a massive sales expense.
So, while the store model may work, and they may figure out a way to do it, I would also argue it is not the most cost effective way of acquiring customers. If they had instead seen FLGS as partners, hired a team of channel people to manage, support, and build rapport with the channel, they may have had a much, much more cost effective model (and bigger delivery channel) than there current model will provide.
I also think this model isn't working well and that is why we saw so many products go direct only with the change of the website. So it seems the model is more a hybrid now where the stores "recruit" the new customer by selling the initial box and then try to get the new customer to then buy from the website to get a higher margin with lower cost. Does anyone see the paradox with this model? You depend on physical stores to get customers, completely ignoring that the internet exists in the most connected generation in worldwide history. Then, you expect them to use the internet to buy a good majority of the product afterwards. But, you expect them to "only" go to the GW website and avoid going to community gaming forums to otherwise expose them to other aspects of the hobby.
GW seemed to think they could cover the USA like they did the UK with their own shops. It didn't work. The country is too large. For a while they courted FLGS with support like branded shelving and good distribution service. That policy seemed to be changed a few years ago. I think GW now believe they can do it all themselves by selling on the Internet. I think that is a mistake as it ignores the role of the local shop as an experiential sampling zone for potential new customers.
Makumba wrote: Why doesn't GW just make all the FLGS go out of buissness. Then they could take over the market and their stores wouldn't run non GW stuff.
They've been trying. Increasingly over the years when I've ordered things through my FLGS they've had had longer and more frequent delays. I don't think it's a coincidence that there happens to be a GW store just a couple more stops along the same train line. Year after year I hear the guy who owns the shop complaining more about how GW interact with him, though this is going back many years. He felt that GW screwed him over back in the day (15 or so years ago) because he largely helped establish a WHFB community and then a couple of years later a GW opened nearby and at the same time GW made it harder for him to do business.
But, as time has gone on, FLGS stores around this area have increasingly become competition to GW instead of supplementing GW. Back in the day all the FLGS's had large GW sections prominently displayed, now they only carry a skeleton offering from GW and it's hidden at the backs of all the stores. One store went so far as to no longer advertise GW new releases. You look in their newsletter and find Infinity, XWing, Malifaux, PP, Bolt Action, basically anything you could think of they carry and advertise the new releases and events. GW stuff, they carry it, but you wouldn't even know about the new releases unless you specifically asked.
If the actual local GW closes I'm not sure what will happen to 40k and WHFB, as none of the FLGS's really support it anymore, 40k game nights have gone from once a week to once every month if you're lucky, sometimes only every few months. There are clubs around which I personally don't frequent, if the GW store closes and the FLGS's don't pick up the slack, all the people I typically game with will be displaced and have no where to play.
Gonna go buy a bunch of gak with friends right now.
Never say never.
I can see 4 likely outcomes based upon the current long standing trend.
Firstly Kirby takes early retirement and there is a massive restructuring of GW's management in response to their falling market share. GW is reset to what it was in the late 90's and actually makes good games again.
GW's revenues continue to fall rapidly and their overheads drag the company down leading to its fragmentation. This would be only scenario that would see GW disappear rapidly.
GW's revenues continue to decline and their low share price encourages a takeover, hopefully by someone who knows how to actually make good games.
Lastly GW basically shrivels, loses its dominance and becomes just another wargames company amongst many.
I can't see GW prospering if they don't do a root and branch reform of their entire company.
Wayshuba wrote: So, while the store model may work, and they may figure out a way to do it, I would also argue it is not the most cost effective way of acquiring customers.
It's obviously an inefficient approach compared to using sales channels that already exist. Using existing channels and existing distribution is how GW grew in the first place. Their stores should be destination stores, not their primary means of selling, but they've got this restructuring plan that seems to be betting the farm on the stores as primary sales channels and being as predatory as possible to those who they should treat as valued partners.
If they had instead seen FLGS as partners, hired a team of channel people to manage, support, and build rapport with the channel, they may have had a much, much more cost effective model (and bigger delivery channel) than there current model will provide.
I agree. Yet Kirby has bragged about how taking direct control of distribution was the best move they ever made and they have shown how they want to go about using that control: draconian sales terms and limits on product allocation for new releases meant to limit sales down this particular channel.
It's crazy.
Then, you expect them to use the internet to buy a good majority of the product afterwards. But, you expect them to "only" go to the GW website and avoid going to community gaming forums to otherwise expose them to other aspects of the hobby.
Well, if something's direct only and people go online, even if they find out about discounters or alternatives, if they want the direct only item that they went online in the first place to get, there's still only one place to go to get it.
What do I want to see? I want GW's decline to be as drawn out as possible and the ceding of their market share to their competitors to be as orderly as possible. So companies that are currently making miniatures that have a similar appeal to the miniatures GW produces will have ample time to grow and flourish and establish themselves so that GW's customer base can diversify and be supported by multiple companies rather than being dominated by one. I want to see diversity in game play, rules being played and miniatures used. I want to see more by-gamers-for-gamers as GW loses market share not only to other game systems but to companies like Kromlech, Creature Caster, Dreamforge or Anvil that make 40k appropriate miniatures. And then I want the new financial reality to force GW to change, or to allow someone else to come in and bring the change needed to really revitalize their fictional universes as miniature games.
Though it's just as likely their IP gets stripped to make shovelware phone and tablet games.
That all said, there's still a chance GW's market segmentation and inefficient retail model plan can actually work. I think they still have room on prices in many regions and likely have more costs to cut than we realize. And that the network effect might not be as key of an issue as I originally thought because actual enjoyable gaming on a regular basis might not be as important to the typical GW customer as it is for me.
Gonna go buy a bunch of gak with friends right now.
Never say never.
I can see 4 likely outcomes based upon the current long standing trend.
...
...
GW's revenues continue to fall rapidly and their overheads drag the company down leading to its fragmentation. This would be only scenario that would see GW disappear rapidly.
GW's revenues continue to decline and their low share price encourages a takeover, hopefully by someone who knows how to actually make good games.
Lastly GW basically shrivels, loses its dominance and becomes just another wargames company amongst many.
I can't see GW prospering if they don't do a root and branch reform of their entire company.
The only thing is GW's revenues have not been declining. Until the Dec 2013 report at any rate. That is why the June 2014 end of year report will be so crucial, to see if they turned it around.
The issue that I see is that a GW store is useless unless somebody knows about them already; if they're trying to sucker in a MtG player, said MtG player isn't going to go into a GW store, and that would mean that they are trying to trick people into going in there by accident, similar to how a game store that has "Games" in the name might get somebody going there by accident who thinks they sell video games. Which IIRC was their idea at one point, hence why shopping malls seemed to be a good place for the GW store. Parents can drop the kid off there while they are shopping, or just wander in looking for the latest Call of Duty or whatever so the redshirt can sell them a 40k boxed set instead.
However, while that might work on parents/relatives, anyone who plays any kind of hobby game is 99.99999% likely to have the internet and would know what 40k/Games Workshop is, even if they don't play; likely that comes from seeing GW products on the shelves at the local shop when they play MtG or whatever card game. They might not know anything about GW as a company, but they've seen the boxes so know that 40k is a miniature game. They aren't going into a GW store blind.
On top of that, while it's decreasing 40k tends to still new small amounts of new players, again mostly because in some communities (mine for example) it's still popular, while other games aren't, so a new player is more likely to get started with 40k because they see people playing 40k; even if they would prefer Infinity/Warmahordes/Malifaux/etc. they don't see anyone playing those games, but they see 40k players, so 40k it is.
In general my thoughts are that GW's business model isn't sustainable forever. This idea of raising prices to cover lost revenue, or hell just because you can, is going to be the tipping point for everyone at some point - for many of us we've already reached it, but there are many more for whom it's still expensive but still okay. These people do have a tipping point, but it hasn't been reached yet. That's what makes GW in a downward spiral.
Makumba wrote: Why doesn't GW just make all the FLGS go out of buissness. Then they could take over the market and their stores wouldn't run non GW stuff.
I live in metro Atlanta. The 9th largest metro area in the US. There is one, ONE GW store in the metro area. There are 9+ FLGS in area which carry GW products AND probably another 6+ FLGS which do not carry GW product for various reasons. If GW can't provide more than 1 store with the hours more than the below, then they have no prayer of taking on the FLGS.
WayneTheGame wrote: The issue that I see is that a GW store is useless unless somebody knows about them already; if they're trying to sucker in a MtG player, said MtG player isn't going to go into a GW store, and that would mean that they are trying to trick people into going in there by accident, similar to how a game store that has "Games" in the name might get somebody going there by accident who thinks they sell video games. Which IIRC was their idea at one point, hence why shopping malls seemed to be a good place for the GW store. Parents can drop the kid off there while they are shopping, or just wander in looking for the latest Call of Duty or whatever so the redshirt can sell them a 40k boxed set instead.
On that note, if I was in charge of GW I'd have the stores keep a few copies of the licensed games on hand - it would give the redshirts a tactful way to test the waters. If the lost video gamer seems interested in Space Marine or Dawn of War, broach the subject of the miniatures. If they won't look at anything that's not Call of Duty, save your breath.
pretre wrote: I lol'd at this. I know you were probably being serious, but still...
If you've got something to say pretre, then come right out and say it. Otherwise quit needling people. It's annoying.
I wasn't needling him. I was laughing at the return to Mat Ward. Sorry if that wasn't obvious.
edit: I also think Insaniak can defend himself from my relentless needling.
He also made a good point different from the one I thought he was aiming at. I disagree with the central premise, but I certainly see that the changes he is unhappy about did stem from that time period.
WayneTheGame wrote: The issue that I see is that a GW store is useless unless somebody knows about them already; if they're trying to sucker in a MtG player, said MtG player isn't going to go into a GW store, and that would mean that they are trying to trick people into going in there by accident, similar to how a game store that has "Games" in the name might get somebody going there by accident who thinks they sell video games. Which IIRC was their idea at one point, hence why shopping malls seemed to be a good place for the GW store. Parents can drop the kid off there while they are shopping, or just wander in looking for the latest Call of Duty or whatever so the redshirt can sell them a 40k boxed set instead.
On that note, if I was in charge of GW I'd have the stores keep a few copies of the licensed games on hand - it would give the redshirts a tactful way to test the waters. If the lost video gamer seems interested in Space Marine or Dawn of War, broach the subject of the miniatures. If they won't look at anything that's not Call of Duty, save your breath.
That's... actually an interesting idea. I could see how that might work. Buy a copy of Space Marine for Little Timmy and then tell him that there's also a miniatures game around it.
Of course, things like that would be an easier sell if they still had the self-contained games like Space Hulk.
Yup. As much as I want GW to face the consequences of its incompetent business plan, there's always going to be that curious 10 year-old who sees the diorama on the street.
You do realize they are selling extremely overpriced formed plastic and people are paying for it hand over fist? The markup has to be insane for what it costs material wise. I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
RJCarrot wrote: You do realize they are selling extremely overpriced formed plastic and people are paying for it hand over fist? The markup has to be insane for what it costs material wise. I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
Then you should probably look a little deeper into the facts. They aren't on Death's door, but they appear to be pulling into the driveway.
RJCarrot wrote: I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
Their [physical shops must cost an absolute fortune. They may well be selling plastic with an extreme mark up but they are also keeping dozens if not hundreds of inefficient shops open around the world.
RJCarrot wrote: You do realize they are selling extremely overpriced formed plastic and people are paying for it hand over fist? The markup has to be insane for what it costs material wise. I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
Shock do you think GW know what they are selling things for!
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc.
It is the same for many items, what do you think starbucks costs to make around 25p per cup retail £2.50. Nike trainer cost £5, retail £50.
Any company will charge the worth of their product and the worth is determined by what people are prepared to pay for it, and people are prepared to pay £25 for a tactical squad that will have only cost about 50p in raw materials.
IF GW halved their prices people would not buy twice as much product, their sales would see a small increase initially but then tail off, there profits would completely disappear and the company would be bankrupt within a year. Noone said it would be a cheap hobby stop whinging about the price
RJCarrot wrote: You do realize they are selling extremely overpriced formed plastic and people are paying for it hand over fist? The markup has to be insane for what it costs material wise. I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
Shock do you think GW know what they are selling things for!
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc. It is the same for many items, what do you think starbucks costs to make around 25p per cup retail £2.50. Nike trainer cost £5, retail £50.
Any company will charge the worth of their product and the worth is determined by what people are prepared to pay for it, and people are prepared to pay £25 for a tactical squad that will have only cost about 50p in raw materials.
IF GW halved their prices people would not buy twice as much product, their sales would see a small increase initially but then tail off, there profits would completely disappear and the company would be bankrupt within a year. Noone said it would be a cheap hobby stop whinging about the price
Bullgak. The fact most of their direct competitors can charge 50% or less for the same or, more often, more product PLUS have to pay to outsource production shows that this is a line of rubbish. GW charges so much because they're arrogant sods and think that customers are rubes and marks who will pay it because it has the GW logo on it, nothing more.
RJCarrot wrote: You do realize they are selling extremely overpriced formed plastic and people are paying for it hand over fist? The markup has to be insane for what it costs material wise. I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
Shock do you think GW know what they are selling things for!
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc.
It is the same for many items, what do you think starbucks costs to make around 25p per cup retail £2.50. Nike trainer cost £5, retail £50.
Any company will charge the worth of their product and the worth is determined by what people are prepared to pay for it, and people are prepared to pay £25 for a tactical squad that will have only cost about 50p in raw materials.
IF GW halved their prices people would not buy twice as much product, their sales would see a small increase initially but then tail off, there profits would completely disappear and the company would be bankrupt within a year. Noone said it would be a cheap hobby stop whinging about the price
Bullgak. The fact most of their direct competitors can charge 50% or less for the same or, more often, more product PLUS have to pay to outsource production shows that this is a line of rubbish. GW charges so much because they're arrogant sods and think that customers are rubes and marks who will pay it because it has the GW logo on it, nothing more.
Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K. GW have invested 30 years in developing their brand and universe and have rightly from a business point of view stopped anyone else being able to compete with them. I stand by my comment, that a squad of tactical marines is worth £25 as people will pay that. Just because you choose not to pay that does not diminish the worth of that product.
RJCarrot wrote: You do realize they are selling extremely overpriced formed plastic and people are paying for it hand over fist? The markup has to be insane for what it costs material wise. I can't see how they wouldn't be doing well.
Shock do you think GW know what they are selling things for!
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc.
It is the same for many items, what do you think starbucks costs to make around 25p per cup retail £2.50. Nike trainer cost £5, retail £50.
Any company will charge the worth of their product and the worth is determined by what people are prepared to pay for it, and people are prepared to pay £25 for a tactical squad that will have only cost about 50p in raw materials.
IF GW halved their prices people would not buy twice as much product, their sales would see a small increase initially but then tail off, there profits would completely disappear and the company would be bankrupt within a year. Noone said it would be a cheap hobby stop whinging about the price
You're conflating worth, value and "the most they can get away with."
Companies will always shoot for the latter, and I have no issue with this, but there is a sweet spot where price and demand equate to the maximum revenue, which isn't necessarily the maximum sale price of each item on a case by case basis. GW appear to have pushed their prices past that point sometime in the last year, while simultaneously appearing to undermine demand through other actions.
Also, FYI, the cost to GW of any of their product, on average, is ~20% of RRP before tax, the information to deduce this is available in their own report. Their cost base is significantly higher because of all the non-manufacturing and development costs they've saddled themselves with.
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc.
This issue with this line of thinking is that other companies, even very small start ups, are able to produce hard plastic and resin miniatures to at least the same standard as GW but which cost significantly less. In the last year I have bought plastic miniatures from 5 different companies; 2 of them have produced kits that are superior to comparable GW kits (Warlord and Perry Miniatures, both of whom are formed by Ex GW employees by the way) while Hawk Games and Plastic Soldier Company produce excellent kits with no direct comparison. Zvezda kits were a bit ropey but at least they were very cheap.
10-15 years ago it may well have cost £100,000 to create a single multi part hard plastic sprue but that its certainly no longer the case.
Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K.
Of course there are, in fact there are a multitude. GW even fought and essentially lost, a high profile legal case against Chapter House Studios for this very reason. As an example I made an Empire army entirely out of Perry plastics as well as a few metal artillery and cavalry models (also from Perry), granted that is WHFB but the point still stands.
OK no one produces rules but then no one seems to want to.
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc.
This issue with this line of thinking is that other companies, even very small start ups, are able to produce hard plastic and resin miniatures to at least the same standard as GW but which cost significantly less. In the last year I have bought plastic miniatures from 5 different companies; 2 of them have produced kits that are superior to comparable GW kits (Warlord and Perry Miniatures, both of whom are formed by Ex GW employees by the way) while Hawk Games and Plastic Soldier Company produce excellent kits with no direct comparison. Zvezda kits were a bit ropey but at least they were very cheap.
10-15 years ago it may well have cost £100,000 to create a single multi part hard plastic sprue but that its certainly no longer the case.
Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K.
Of course there are, in fact there are a multitude. GW even fought and essentially lost, a high profile legal case against Chapter House Studios for this very reason. As an example I made an Empire army entirely out of Perry plastics as well as a few metal artillery and cavalry models (also from Perry), granted that is WHFB but the point still stands.
OK no one produces rules but then no one seems to want to.
Great news that warlord and perry miniatures sell W40k alternatives, can you send me the link to their website for where they retail a tactical squad equivalent unit of 10 models for £12.50 delivered in the UK then please.
Again, pleased that there are loads of GW competitors out there, can you send me through a link to their website that will no doubt have a huge richly described background about what has happened to create this universe. I also presume that this game will have a relatively active gaming community nearby so i can meet up with other gamers to play games with once a week.......... waiting on the link.
madd_leeroy wrote: Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K. GW have invested 30 years in developing their brand and universe and have rightly from a business point of view stopped anyone else being able to compete with them. I stand by my comment, that a squad of tactical marines is worth £25 as people will pay that. Just because you choose not to pay that does not diminish the worth of that product.
Sorry, had to laugh at that statement. Don't start a business and try and attract investors, with a statement like that you are guaranteed not to get any cash.
GW now has a TON of direct competition. Any company that sells miniatures wargames and competes for the consumer's leisure hobby money is a direct competitor. A direct competitor is any company that is in a similar space that can take the revenue from you. Right now, there are a lot of companies doing that to GW and they are all growing while GW is shrinking.
40k is NOT the hobby, contrary to what GW will have you believe. I can use the same argument and say GW better be careful of Corvus Belli because they don't produce miniatures for Infinity and that game is growing like hotcakes right now. Same could be said for Bolt Action, or Malifaux, and many others. Truth is, 40k is one of the absolute worst games (design and playwise) on the market right now in terms of rules and it shows. Be realistic, Dystopian Wars 2.0 outsold 40k 7th edition rules in some areas by factors of 6 or 7 to 1.
Of course there is a high markup they have to pay to cover all of their costs of production, design etc etc etc.
This issue with this line of thinking is that other companies, even very small start ups, are able to produce hard plastic and resin miniatures to at least the same standard as GW but which cost significantly less. In the last year I have bought plastic miniatures from 5 different companies; 2 of them have produced kits that are superior to comparable GW kits (Warlord and Perry Miniatures, both of whom are formed by Ex GW employees by the way) while Hawk Games and Plastic Soldier Company produce excellent kits with no direct comparison. Zvezda kits were a bit ropey but at least they were very cheap.
10-15 years ago it may well have cost £100,000 to create a single multi part hard plastic sprue but that its certainly no longer the case.
Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K.
Of course there are, in fact there are a multitude. GW even fought and essentially lost, a high profile legal case against Chapter House Studios for this very reason. As an example I made an Empire army entirely out of Perry plastics as well as a few metal artillery and cavalry models (also from Perry), granted that is WHFB but the point still stands.
OK no one produces rules but then no one seems to want to.
Great news that warlord and perry miniatures sell W40k alternatives, can you send me the link to their website for where they retail a tactical squad equivalent unit of 10 models for £12.50 delivered in the UK then please.
Again, pleased that there are loads of GW competitors out there, can you send me through a link to their website that will no doubt have a huge richly described background about what has happened to create this universe. I also presume that this game will have a relatively active gaming community nearby so i can meet up with other gamers to play games with once a week.......... waiting on the link.
Yeah, it's called Privateer Press, they're booming where I live!
One could count Flames of War, but I don't since that's, you know real history, so I'll stick with Privateer Press.
40k alternatives are rarer to see, though to be fair I've not really looked myself. Some (guard, orks, maybe tau, tyranids) would obviously be easier.
madd_leeroy wrote: Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K. GW have invested 30 years in developing their brand and universe and have rightly from a business point of view stopped anyone else being able to compete with them. I stand by my comment, that a squad of tactical marines is worth £25 as people will pay that. Just because you choose not to pay that does not diminish the worth of that product.
Sorry, had to laugh at that statement. Don't start a business and try and attract investors, with a statement like that you are guaranteed not to get any cash.
GW now has a TON of direct competition. Any company that sells miniatures wargames and competes for the consumer's leisure hobby money is a direct competitor. A direct competitor is any company that is in a similar space that can take the revenue from you. Right now, there are a lot of companies doing that to GW and they are all growing while GW is shrinking.
40k is NOT the hobby, contrary to what GW will have you believe. I can use the same argument and say GW better be careful of Corvus Belli because they don't produce miniatures for Infinity and that game is growing like hotcakes right now. Same could be said for Bolt Action, or Malifaux, and many others. Truth is, 40k is one of the absolute worst games (design and playwise) on the market right now in terms of rules and it shows. Be realistic, Dystopian Wars 2.0 outsold 40k 7th edition rules in some areas by factors of 6 or 7 to 1.
Oh well if it is the truth that 40k is one of the ABSOLUTE WORST games i won't bother playing it any more, i will bin my 5000pts of figures that i have collected over the last 10 years. ................................................ the thing is i like paying the game, i like paying against my friends that i play it against, we enjoy doing it, maybe i am lucky that if i want to spend £25 or £100 on a box of figures i can do. i want GW to still be there in another 10 years supporting the 40K universe. If you don't fine don't play it but don't come on a 40K forum too.
madd_leeroy wrote: Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K. GW have invested 30 years in developing their brand and universe and have rightly from a business point of view stopped anyone else being able to compete with them. I stand by my comment, that a squad of tactical marines is worth £25 as people will pay that. Just because you choose not to pay that does not diminish the worth of that product.
Sorry, had to laugh at that statement. Don't start a business and try and attract investors, with a statement like that you are guaranteed not to get any cash.
GW now has a TON of direct competition. Any company that sells miniatures wargames and competes for the consumer's leisure hobby money is a direct competitor. A direct competitor is any company that is in a similar space that can take the revenue from you. Right now, there are a lot of companies doing that to GW and they are all growing while GW is shrinking.
40k is NOT the hobby, contrary to what GW will have you believe. I can use the same argument and say GW better be careful of Corvus Belli because they don't produce miniatures for Infinity and that game is growing like hotcakes right now. Same could be said for Bolt Action, or Malifaux, and many others. Truth is, 40k is one of the absolute worst games (design and playwise) on the market right now in terms of rules and it shows. Be realistic, Dystopian Wars 2.0 outsold 40k 7th edition rules in some areas by factors of 6 or 7 to 1.
Oh well if it is the truth that 40k is one of the ABSOLUTE WORST games i won't bother playing it any more, i will bin my 5000pts of figures that i have collected over the last 10 years. ................................................ the thing is i like paying the game, i like paying against my friends that i play it against, we enjoy doing it, maybe i am lucky that if i want to spend £25 or £100 on a box of figures i can do. i want GW to still be there in another 10 years supporting the 40K universe. If you don't fine don't play it but don't come on a 40K forum too.
Best. Typo. Ever.
Also, the "if you don't like it don't play it or talk about it" is pretty much the most tired, invalid, pointless excuse for an "argument" in circulation around this subject.
Let me reflect that back into "if you don't care enough about 40K to lament it's shortcomings and want it to be better, please stop buying models, playing the game and enjoying yourself, as your actions are making GW think that everything is OK and they don't need to try harder."
Great news that warlord and perry miniatures sell W40k alternatives, can you send me the link to their website for where they retail a tactical squad equivalent unit of 10 models for £12.50 delivered in the UK then please.
Direct from GW's webstore, the Tactical Marine Squad is £25 for the 10 figures. I don't think SM are as cheap as you imply they are.
But since Perry is a historic war-gaming company, I'm not sure you'll find Tac-Marine equivalents but, here...
... so, no, GW has hardly cornered the market on imagery and price.
In comparison, here's a Battle-Sister squad direct from GW. 10 Sisters with weapons and wargear. £49.70. Currently out of stock (reasons for which have already been mentioned in this thread).
madd_leeroy wrote: Direct competitors, there are none, no one does and can produce miniatures and rules that are compatible in 40K. GW have invested 30 years in developing their brand and universe and have rightly from a business point of view stopped anyone else being able to compete with them. I stand by my comment, that a squad of tactical marines is worth £25 as people will pay that. Just because you choose not to pay that does not diminish the worth of that product.
Sorry, had to laugh at that statement. Don't start a business and try and attract investors, with a statement like that you are guaranteed not to get any cash.
GW now has a TON of direct competition. Any company that sells miniatures wargames and competes for the consumer's leisure hobby money is a direct competitor. A direct competitor is any company that is in a similar space that can take the revenue from you. Right now, there are a lot of companies doing that to GW and they are all growing while GW is shrinking.
40k is NOT the hobby, contrary to what GW will have you believe. I can use the same argument and say GW better be careful of Corvus Belli because they don't produce miniatures for Infinity and that game is growing like hotcakes right now. Same could be said for Bolt Action, or Malifaux, and many others. Truth is, 40k is one of the absolute worst games (design and playwise) on the market right now in terms of rules and it shows. Be realistic, Dystopian Wars 2.0 outsold 40k 7th edition rules in some areas by factors of 6 or 7 to 1.
Oh well if it is the truth that 40k is one of the ABSOLUTE WORST games i won't bother playing it any more, i will bin my 5000pts of figures that i have collected over the last 10 years. ................................................ the thing is i like paying the game, i like paying against my friends that i play it against, we enjoy doing it, maybe i am lucky that if i want to spend £25 or £100 on a box of figures i can do. i want GW to still be there in another 10 years supporting the 40K universe. If you don't fine don't play it but don't come on a 40K forum too.
Wow, 5000 pts after 10 years in. So you're the one responsible for the bad financial. You're clearly not doing your part to keep Kirby in the life style he is accustomed to.
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Kilkrazy wrote: I have to say, if you love playing 40K then why not go and play it instead of spending time complaining about people discussing it on forums.
Great news that warlord and perry miniatures sell W40k alternatives, can you send me the link to their website for where they retail a tactical squad equivalent unit of 10 models for £12.50 delivered in the UK then please.
Great news that warlord and perry miniatures sell W40k alternatives, can you send me the link to their website for where they retail a tactical squad equivalent unit of 10 models for £12.50 delivered in the UK then please.
Direct from GW's webstore, the Tactical Marine Squad is £25 for the 10 figures. I don't think SM are as cheap as you imply they are.
But since Perry is a historic war-gaming company, I'm not sure you'll find Tac-Marine equivalents but, here...
... so, no, GW has hardly cornered the market on imagery and price.
In comparison, here's a Battle-Sister squad direct from GW. 10 Sisters with weapons and wargear. £49.70. Currently out of stock (reasons for which have already been mentioned in this thread).
But I don't want to buy historical wargmes i want to buy something comparable with 40k. The Judge dread link seems to be £30 for 8 miniatures not cheaper than £25 for 10 tac marines.
Kilkrazy wrote: I have to say, if you love playing 40K then why not go and play it instead of spending time complaining about people discussing it on forums.
Because mistakenly i thought this was a place to have a general discussion about 40k, I cannot play right now as i am on a train and it would not be practical to setup a game here. Speaking of which £78 quid to go 100 miles when the diesel will only cost them a portion of that how dare they, i demand that they reduce the prices blah blah blah
Great news that warlord and perry miniatures sell W40k alternatives, can you send me the link to their website for where they retail a tactical squad equivalent unit of 10 models for £12.50 delivered in the UK then please.
There's a lot of fantastic not guardsmen out there (including Scottish and female ones)
do they make any Terminator models (like the movie)? I have a few but they're the wrong scale.
Any robot thing would do, I am sure they exist somewhere.
only ones that I've not really been able to find is Sisters of Battle, everything else has something pretty good to be used instead (maybe some marines not so much but... there's a lot of marines)
For Not-Sisters, I would keep an eye on Raging Heroes Sisters of Eternal Mercy. This is a line to follow the current TGG/Iron Empire series (currently in production) that currently exists only in concept art form and a few 3D renders, but looks really, really good.
Yes it is really simply a matter of time.
Even when I had a good job, I still didn't like paying what GW asked, it didn't feel worth it, especially since there are models cheaper and the same (even better) quality.
With my other hobbies (the ball jointed dolls) there is a huge price gambit, GW isn't the only company out there to sell me models. So why should I pick them?
Aught is a pronoun and commonly used in dialect where i am from such as: "Hang yourself for aught you're worth, You were a scoundrel from your birth, And if you cannot buy a rope, Some fool will trust you one, I hope."
Killkrazy, no one mentioned I?
Frozen wastes, i have probably spent £150 in the last year. £100 from GW and £50 from other sources, mainly ebay.
yes I am aware of other miniature games but have a lot of history in 40k and can't get excited about the limited background of other games such as warpath and infinity.
August Bank Holiday is towards the end of the month however lots of people take summer holidays between now and early September due to children's school term dates. There must be a rule about the time limit. I don't know what it is though.
madd_leeroy wrote: Aught is a pronoun and commonly used in dialect where i am from such as: "Hang yourself for aught you're worth, You were a scoundrel from your birth, And if you cannot buy a rope, Some fool will trust you one, I hope."
Killkrazy, no one mentioned I?
Frozen wastes, i have probably spent £150 in the last year. £100 from GW and £50 from other sources, mainly ebay.
yes I am aware of other miniature games but have a lot of history in 40k and can't get excited about the limited background of other games such as warpath and infinity.
When i started collecting there was no others
GW online
*highlighted bit for emphasis*
le sigh. GW isnt the only game with a large catalogue of lore.
You have not looked hard enough leeroy. Warmachine, for example, has a fantastic setting, and it has been developing for quite a long time now. Did you know it originally started off as a D20RPG setting using the DnD 3.5 OSL rules? this was back when the Witchfire Trilogy was their first outing. And that was well over ten years ago now, and the fluff has been constantly developed.
I’ll be honest. I’’m always that bit disappointed and annoyed when people post that other games dont have well developed backgrounds. . Such as what you have said. I understand you are probably saying it more from lack of familiarity as much as anything else, but nonetheless you are perpetuating a falsehood, and it really does grind my gears that people continue to do it. the fluff? its there. its simply not true to suggest what you are suggesting. And I can back my statements up.
the first place for fluff, as you can guess is the rulebook and army books for both warmachine and hordes. they have the ongoing fiction, as well as character back stories, unit descriptions and the FOW books often describe some of the logistics, and actual nuts and bolts of army organisation, and history. they're good solid reads (i love the retribution book in particular, itsbackground material is phenomenol!) but generally, act as a great intro. If you are interested, the fluff goes all the way back to Mk1 and the original books from over 10 years ago. if you get the PP reader app, you can download all the old books for a song. its well worth it, IMO. the hordes expansions (mutagenesis and evolution iirc) have some really excellent story material.
the second place is PPs magazine. No Quarter. it is an excellent read. pick it up at your FLGS, and if you want the older copies, check out the PP reader app, where you can get all the old issues for a few pence. there are short stories throughout the magazine. they also run very popular and very well written fluff articles in the magazine. For example, you have the Gavyn Kyle files, which elaborates on, explores and deepends the fiction behind a lot of the "names" in the game. Not just casters. But other famous individuals too. Sometimes its units (there was one exploring the history and culture of the kayazy). Another great one is the Guts n Gears files, which are like the GK files, but are less about individuals, and more about the fluff behind unit types and warjack chassis (where they were made, how long they were in service for, development history etc). the NQ magazine is well worth a read - it has some excellent content and is well worth its price tag. i think they're re-releasing some of the fiction via skull island as well (see below). there is also regular fiction which includes both once off short stories, and stories that continue on the arc from those in books - for example, what happened to Kallus at the end of Domination is explained in one.
the third place (and my personal favourite) is the RPG material. Warmachine originated as a D20RPG using the DnD open source licence. their very first adventure was called "the witchfire trilogy" and is a great read, with some interesting little nuggets. the "old" D20 material comprised the character guides (which ahave a lot of the basic information, cosmology, history etc) 2 monsternomicons (with huge bits of info on infernals, and skorne culture/history, although its generally about the monsters that inhabit immoren), a small exansion on the port of Five FIngers, and the excellent world guide. I cannot recommend these enough; the World GUide in particular. its epic. you can literally smell the smoke when you read it. they're very, very engrossing, and do a fantastic job of bringing the world to life - not just the history, but crime&punishment, trades and learning, entertainment, finance, language, cosmology, and lots of information on locations, towns, cities, forts, and the big names in all of them. Now, the old material is still online (if you know where to look; winkwinknudgenudge) but they're also all being updated by PP into a new RPG series using a proprietary rules system based off of the wargame. So far they have the IKRPG core rules, five fingers and the excellent Kings Nations and Gods books. again, all well worth the read. upcoming is a new monsternomicon and the iron kingdoms: unleashed "complimentary" RPG which focuses on adventures in the wilds, and expands on the races to include tharn, farrow etc. Im quite looking forward to that one! i think thw RPG material on its own is stellar, and really does a fantastic job of bringing the world to life - far more than youd expect from a regular wargame.
the fourth place is PPs publishing wing. skull island expeditions.https://skullislandx.com/
they dont yet have the volume or the library of titles of the black library, but whats there is very solid. i will particularly recommend the warcaster chronicle series (caine, butcher and shae so far), warlock chronicles (makeda and thagrosh), extraordinary zoology (brilliant little read!) and top of the pile is Into the Storm by larry correia (award winning author). the iron kingdoms excursions series is a series of short stories that are quite fun to read too.
For me the issue of GW's fluff is that it never goes anywhere, or they get codex writers to write some and it is the worst thing ever written! (eg Matt Ward)
That man has caused more nerd rage then any other man I know...
Kilkrazy wrote: August Bank Holiday is towards the end of the month however lots of people take summer holidays between now and early September due to children's school term dates. There must be a rule about the time limit. I don't know what it is though.
Huh. Could have sworn there was one at the start of August this year, must have been one of those "only in...." Jobs and I didn't notice.
They have 6 months from FYE to file, I would imagine they'd publish at the same time, as they're publicly accessible then too, and past behaviour is the best indicator of future actions in this case, so a couple of weeks is most likely.
The share price spiked when they announced the dividend and deadline for acquisition to qualify, so they're almost certainly in for a spanking in the markets once the dividend has been paid regardless, unless they post up something remarkable.
madd_leeroy wrote: Aught is a pronoun and commonly used in dialect where i am from such as: "Hang yourself for aught you're worth, You were a scoundrel from your birth, And if you cannot buy a rope, Some fool will trust you one, I hope."
Killkrazy, no one mentioned I?
Frozen wastes, i have probably spent £150 in the last year. £100 from GW and £50 from other sources, mainly ebay.
yes I am aware of other miniature games but have a lot of history in 40k and can't get excited about the limited background of other games such as warpath and infinity.
When i started collecting there was no others
GW online
*highlighted bit for emphasis*
le sigh. GW isnt the only game with a large catalogue of lore.
You have not looked hard enough leeroy. Warmachine, for example, has a fantastic setting, and it has been developing for quite a long time now. Did you know it originally started off as a D20RPG setting using the DnD 3.5 OSL rules? this was back when the Witchfire Trilogy was their first outing. And that was well over ten years ago now, and the fluff has been constantly developed.
I’ll be honest. I’’m always that bit disappointed and annoyed when people post that other games dont have well developed backgrounds. . Such as what you have said. I understand you are probably saying it more from lack of familiarity as much as anything else, but nonetheless you are perpetuating a falsehood, and it really does grind my gears that people continue to do it. the fluff? its there. its simply not true to suggest what you are suggesting. And I can back my statements up.
the first place for fluff, as you can guess is the rulebook and army books for both warmachine and hordes. they have the ongoing fiction, as well as character back stories, unit descriptions and the FOW books often describe some of the logistics, and actual nuts and bolts of army organisation, and history. they're good solid reads (i love the retribution book in particular, itsbackground material is phenomenol!) but generally, act as a great intro. If you are interested, the fluff goes all the way back to Mk1 and the original books from over 10 years ago. if you get the PP reader app, you can download all the old books for a song. its well worth it, IMO. the hordes expansions (mutagenesis and evolution iirc) have some really excellent story material.
the second place is PPs magazine. No Quarter. it is an excellent read. pick it up at your FLGS, and if you want the older copies, check out the PP reader app, where you can get all the old issues for a few pence. there are short stories throughout the magazine. they also run very popular and very well written fluff articles in the magazine. For example, you have the Gavyn Kyle files, which elaborates on, explores and deepends the fiction behind a lot of the "names" in the game. Not just casters. But other famous individuals too. Sometimes its units (there was one exploring the history and culture of the kayazy). Another great one is the Guts n Gears files, which are like the GK files, but are less about individuals, and more about the fluff behind unit types and warjack chassis (where they were made, how long they were in service for, development history etc). the NQ magazine is well worth a read - it has some excellent content and is well worth its price tag. i think they're re-releasing some of the fiction via skull island as well (see below). there is also regular fiction which includes both once off short stories, and stories that continue on the arc from those in books - for example, what happened to Kallus at the end of Domination is explained in one.
the third place (and my personal favourite) is the RPG material. Warmachine originated as a D20RPG using the DnD open source licence. their very first adventure was called "the witchfire trilogy" and is a great read, with some interesting little nuggets. the "old" D20 material comprised the character guides (which ahave a lot of the basic information, cosmology, history etc) 2 monsternomicons (with huge bits of info on infernals, and skorne culture/history, although its generally about the monsters that inhabit immoren), a small exansion on the port of Five FIngers, and the excellent world guide. I cannot recommend these enough; the World GUide in particular. its epic. you can literally smell the smoke when you read it. they're very, very engrossing, and do a fantastic job of bringing the world to life - not just the history, but crime&punishment, trades and learning, entertainment, finance, language, cosmology, and lots of information on locations, towns, cities, forts, and the big names in all of them. Now, the old material is still online (if you know where to look; winkwinknudgenudge) but they're also all being updated by PP into a new RPG series using a proprietary rules system based off of the wargame. So far they have the IKRPG core rules, five fingers and the excellent Kings Nations and Gods books. again, all well worth the read. upcoming is a new monsternomicon and the iron kingdoms: unleashed "complimentary" RPG which focuses on adventures in the wilds, and expands on the races to include tharn, farrow etc. Im quite looking forward to that one! i think thw RPG material on its own is stellar, and really does a fantastic job of bringing the world to life - far more than youd expect from a regular wargame.
the fourth place is PPs publishing wing. skull island expeditions.https://skullislandx.com/
they dont yet have the volume or the library of titles of the black library, but whats there is very solid. i will particularly recommend the warcaster chronicle series (caine, butcher and shae so far), warlock chronicles (makeda and thagrosh), extraordinary zoology (brilliant little read!) and top of the pile is Into the Storm by larry correia (award winning author). the iron kingdoms excursions series is a series of short stories that are quite fun to read too.
I'll second Larry Correia's "Into the Storm." If you haven't read any of his other stuff, you're missing out. He's a fantastic writer that started writing for PP because he really just loves the game.
madd_leeroy wrote: Frozen wastes, i have probably spent £150 in the last year. £100 from GW and £50 from other sources, mainly ebay.
Hmm. These numbers and the split into other sources isn't really what GW needs from each customer to really make it work. They better hope you're not typical of their customers.
GW online
This is ideal for them though. It has to be their highest margin sales channel.
About "aught"
Spoiler:
What you are describing is still a noun, not a pronoun. It pretty much means "all" or "all that is known". Ought, on the other hand, is like should and makes way more sense in your original sentence.
Kilkrazy wrote: I have to say, if you love playing 40K then why not go and play it instead of spending time complaining about people discussing it on forums.
Because mistakenly i thought this was a place to have a general discussion about 40k, I cannot play right now as i am on a train and it would not be practical to setup a game here. Speaking of which £78 quid to go 100 miles when the diesel will only cost them a portion of that how dare they, i demand that they reduce the prices blah blah blah
25 not "whatever the GW not Victorian British Infantry IG Infantry is" Infantry in plastic. $21.95.
Brilliant do you think they will pass for Necrons?
Well all I will say is that with those I think you get what you pay for. If I wanted alt-Imperial Guard I'd go for Victoria Lamb. It's $49.99 which is £29 in old money, so costs a fair but more than GW's cadians. However I think they are a *lot* better and you get what you pay for.
MWHistorian wrote: Any miniature war game is a direct competitor to 40k.
Which is why GW's response is to run away and hide.
No attendance at actual gaming conventions. Being parasitic with their independent trade "partners." Trying to maintain and rebuild a customer base segmented from the larger industry.
It sounds crazy to say that it might work. I do get that.
I love the Scottish guardsmen, the female ones are nice too but if I had to pick one it would be Scotland!
I wonder if they make a good Mordian Iron Guard look alike out there?
A good comparison for GW on "value" imo is DFG Eisenkern vs. 40k new ST's. $11 for 5 compared to $35 for 5, and you get DFG on better and more frequent sales than you do 40k. You get just as many if not more bits and while the aesthetic is subjective, the quality is at least equal.
Another good comparison are Perry minis historicals and the WHFB lines since a lot of them are sculpted by the same people but Perry minis are laughably cheaper.
Also the dreamforge leviathans compared to the GW knight. Bigger, insanely posable, a hell of a lot more plastic and not much more expensive at all.
I gotta find some real cheap and pretty nice (though GW's guard plastic is so old) guard alternatives, since I'm doing a blob army (mostly for a homebrew ruleset I am making, Super Warhammer 40, 000 I call it)
Well all I will say is that with those I think you get what you pay for. If I wanted alt-Imperial Guard I'd go for Victoria Lamb. It's $49.99 which is £29 in old money, so costs a fair but more than GW's cadians. However I think they are a *lot* better and you get what you pay for.
Karl, the models in the last picture are actually GW's Praetorians. These are Victoria Lamb's Victorian Guard
Kilkrazy wrote: GW probably will publish by the end of July, unless the results are so disastrous that they have to conceal them for as long as possible.
Nah they'll be fine. They've got knife marks on their bones, but that's a small price to pay for a (very short-term) gain. They'll celebrate their "efficiency" (READ: sacking entire departments across the world and downsizing/centralising their operation), how much profit they're making (READ: how much overhead they reduced by sacking said departments and all the one-man store stuff), and talk about how vibrant 40K is looking and how the next Warhammer will be awesome and don't mention the war Hobbit.
When GW does go under (and yes that's a "when" rather than an "if" - everything ends) I honestly think it will simply be boredom that does it. WHF died not because of anything GW did imo, but because the fanbase got bored/fatigued by the whole thing. Eventually that'll happen with 40k, but it won't stop everyone blaming GW and their business strategies on the collapse.
Shandara wrote:
Awesome army, but a bit pricey at $30 per model... must be that minimum wage.
They're painted by a multiple Golden Demon winner, and are freaking awesome. The price is more than fair.
Let me rephrase myself then, by own subjective-and-perhaps-not-realistic feel for value I find $30 per model too expensive, no matter how awesomely they are painted. And yes, it's awesome.
KommissarKarl wrote: When GW does go under (and yes that's a "when" rather than an "if" - everything ends) I honestly think it will simply be boredom that does it. WHF died not because of anything GW did imo, but because the fanbase got bored/fatigued by the whole thing. Eventually that'll happen with 40k, but it won't stop everyone blaming GW and their business strategies on the collapse.
Because that will likely be the cause. GW and their business strategies, or lack thereof, is the only factor in their decline.
KommissarKarl wrote: When GW does go under (and yes that's a "when" rather than an "if" - everything ends) I honestly think it will simply be boredom that does it. WHF died not because of anything GW did imo, but because the fanbase got bored/fatigued by the whole thing. Eventually that'll happen with 40k, but it won't stop everyone blaming GW and their business strategies on the collapse.
Because that will likely be the cause. GW and their business strategies, or lack thereof, is the only factor in their decline.
You think it's impossible to become bored of 40k? You think no-one has ever gone "eh i'm bored of 40k now I think I'll try Warmahordes/X-wing"?
Thus if GW's strategy leads to boredom and stagnation, it is a bad one.
People get bored of things all the time. It's no one's fault, though you could argue that GW's policies accelerate their decline if you really wanted to.
Kilkrazy wrote: GW is a company that has successfully provided entertaining products for over 30 years. If they start to bore customers now, there is something wrong.
You mention GW again...I'm talking about 40k. 40k as a setting can only have a certain amount of interest in it, logically all settings do. Eventually that interest will dry up, and those guys that you just love to hate don't really get in a look in.
Just look at how WHF collapsed and died, or the LOTR after the films faded from peoples' memories - and then failed to be re-ignited for the Hobbit.
Kilkrazy wrote: GW is a company that has successfully provided entertaining products for over 30 years. If they start to bore customers now, there is something wrong.
You mention GW again...I'm talking about 40k. 40k as a setting can only have a certain amount of interest in it, logically all settings do. Eventually that interest will dry up, and those guys that you just love to hate don't really get in a look in.
Just look at how WHF collapsed and died, or the LOTR after the films faded from peoples' memories - and then failed to be re-ignited for the Hobbit.
This thread is about GW collapsing, not 40k. WHF died because GW fethed up 7th, or was it 8th, edition along with their nutso pricing schemes meaning it was getting to be around $100 to field a single unit at an appropriate size. GW is directly related to the collapse/boredom/etc. The problem that I understand with The Hobbit was, again, ridiculous pricing.
Other than extenuating circumstances such as moving and not having a game store, or all the game stores in town closing shop, I'd wager the #1 reason anyone gets bored with 40k is directly related to GW's business practices in some way.
Kilkrazy wrote: GW is a company that has successfully provided entertaining products for over 30 years. If they start to bore customers now, there is something wrong.
You mention GW again...I'm talking about 40k. 40k as a setting can only have a certain amount of interest in it, logically all settings do. Eventually that interest will dry up, and those guys that you just love to hate don't really get in a look in.
Just look at how WHF collapsed and died, or the LOTR after the films faded from peoples' memories - and then failed to be re-ignited for the Hobbit.
WHF died because GW fethed up 7th, or was it 8th, edition
Gonna need a source on this because it's something I see a lot on the internet but everyone Irl just seems to have gotten bored of it.
Other than extenuating circumstances such as moving and not having a game store, or all the game stores in town closing shop, I'd wager the #1 reason anyone gets bored with 40k is directly related to GW's business practices in some way.
That said, one of GW's weaknesses is having only two games -- WHFB and 40K. It is clear that 40K is the better selling of the two. If 40K sales collapsed, then GW would definitely be in trouble. However, I do not agree that a single setting has a finite limit of interest and will inexorably lead to the collapse of the company.
1. Napoleonics is "finite" yet it has excited the interest of wargamers for 200 years.
2. The player base can be renewed. I myself played WHFB early on, dropped out, played some 40K early on, dropped out, returned in 2004 for 4th edition, and have effectively dropped out during 6th edition. I would rejoin in the right circumstances. OTOH other people find 7th edition marvellous, so as long as they can pick up the slack of people leaving, it will be OK.
3. A company does not have to rely on one product. GW used to make many products and can do so again.
Kilkrazy wrote: GW is a company that has successfully provided entertaining products for over 30 years. If they start to bore customers now, there is something wrong.
You mention GW again...I'm talking about 40k. 40k as a setting can only have a certain amount of interest in it, logically all settings do. Eventually that interest will dry up, and those guys that you just love to hate don't really get in a look in.
Just look at how WHF collapsed and died, or the LOTR after the films faded from peoples' memories - and then failed to be re-ignited for the Hobbit.
WHF died because GW fethed up 7th, or was it 8th, edition
Gonna need a source on this because it's something I see a lot on the internet but everyone Irl just seems to have gotten bored of it.
There aren't any official numbers or anything anywhere that state X players left for X reason but under 7th my area (yes I know, anecdotal, but anecdotal is all we have and it at least seems to be a fairly consistent story all over the internet) was drawing 100 people to the largest tourney in the state. A year later under 8th they drew about 30 and now 4 or so years into 8th they have stopped running that particular tourney.
There has actually been a little resurgence recently but interest in Fantasy very clearly dropped off overnight when 8th hit and has been slowly growing back up to maybe a quarter of what it was.
My first 'GW' games were Hero Quest and Space Crusade. I know a lot of other people who can say the same. Those games propelled me into wargaming, and at the time the leader in terms of the player base and products was far and away GW. I can't recall much in the way of competition.
GW had a number of games to suit all budgets and all playstyles. I bought and played Necromunda, 40k, WHFB, BFG, Space Marine/Titan Legions, Doom Of the eldar, Battle for armageddon, Talisman, Horus Heresy, Warmaster, Tyranid attack. and Warhammer Quest. I skipped Man'O'War and mordheim since my pocket money and paper round could only stretch so far
My RP group switched between fantasy roleplay, AD&D, Mega Traveller and Star wars.
It seemed that GW had almost every single genre covered, skirmish, epic battles, space battles, pure strategy and roleplay. there were other games out there that arguably did it better than GW, but GW games had a more solid playerbase.
Skip forward to today, 20 years later. GW have two games.
When i want to play RP games i play D&D, when i want to play a skirmish game i play Infinity. there are more board games than ever before. no longer are the options Risk, axis and allies and monopoly! (check out 'Tabletop' on youtube, about the only decent thing wil wheaton has done since everyone wished he would die horribly on TNG)
in my area fewer and fewer people play GW games. More and more people play alternative games. and in fact, one of the only ways i ever play 40k, or any GW game now is with a friend of mine who is an unrepentant GW fanboy, or if i take Hero Quest or Space Crusade to a games night. people almost fight to get a seat at the table!
GW is in a much weaker position in the market than they were in the past. They have made some very very good games in the past, and i'm sure they can again. I would have bought space Hulk if it hadn't been a limited edition, i still might if i can convince my wife i 'need' it (unlikely).
GW needs more games like Hero Quest, Space Hulk and Talisman. Games like Horus Heresy (the 1993 version) were good examples of strategy games and were popular even with non tabletop gamers. And while there are a lot of very very good games out there, GW still has a large player base, and an even larger number of people who are sitting on the fence.
If GW did it right, and i'm sceptical that they could, they could bury the competition. otherwise, the competition will keep nibbling at them. death by a thousand cuts!
There aren't any official numbers or anything anywhere that state X players left for X reason but under 7th my area (yes I know, anecdotal, but anecdotal is all we have and it at least seems to be a fairly consistent story all over the internet) was drawing 100 people to the largest tourney in the state. A year later under 8th they drew about 30 and now 4 or so years into 8th they have stopped running that particular tourney.
There has actually been a little resurgence recently but interest in Fantasy very clearly dropped off overnight when 8th hit and has been slowly growing back up to maybe a quarter of what it was.
This is what happened in my area as well (minus the resurgence part). WHFB didn't die because of boredom, it died because all the stupid nonsense that GW did with 40k in 6th and 7th edition, they tried first with WHFB 8th edition and that caused the vast majority of the player base to say "feth this" and walk away.
Skip forward to today, 20 years later. GW have two games.
in my area fewer and fewer people play GW games. More and more people play alternative games. and in fact, one of the only ways i ever play 40k, or any GW game now is with a friend of mine who is an unrepentant GW fanboy, or if i take Hero Quest or Space Crusade to a games night. people almost fight to get a seat at the table!
GW is in a much weaker position in the market than they were in the past. They have made some very very good games in the past, and i'm sure they can again. I would have bought space Hulk if it hadn't been a limited edition, i still might if i can convince my wife i 'need' it (unlikely).
GW needs more games like Hero Quest, Space Hulk and Talisman. Games like Horus Heresy (the 1993 version) were good examples of strategy games and were popular even with non tabletop gamers. And while there are a lot of very very good games out there, GW still has a large player base, and an even larger number of people who are sitting on the fence.
If GW did it right, and i'm sceptical that they could, they could bury the competition. otherwise, the competition will keep nibbling at them. death by a thousand cuts!
Edited but those are quite true.
Hero quest is an absolute blast, when you have a good GM oh my do things get funny. Our GM once had a member of the gang "dipped" in something rather nasty that got much laughter as well as all the other rude jokes that we could come up with
Even if they are running two games, they are doing stuff wrong. Personally they have run out of steam, gone are the days where what GW did was actually "interesting" and PP have took that over quite rapidly.
Lets be honest in today's world GW no longer has the dominance it once had. Somebody summed it up rather nicely "GW= The imperium" the company is beginning to resemble the fluff! They can't carry on the way they are going...
KommissarKarl wrote: ... WHF died not because of anything GW did imo, but because the fanbase got bored/fatigued by the whole thing...
Really? You genuinely think that none of the changes GW made between 7th and 8th (we're on 8th now, right?) had anything to do with its sudden shrinking fanbase? People just "got bored", everywhere, at once? Are you for real? I mean, there's apologising for someone and then there's apologising for someone!
WayneTheGame wrote: WHF died because GW fethed up 7th, or was it 8th, edition along with their nutso pricing schemes meaning it was getting to be around $100 to field a single unit at an appropriate size.
Nah brah! They just got bored. Inexplicably. Globally. Simultaneously.
Is "KommissarKarl" a synonym for "apologist", because come on.
stopcallingmechief wrote: Not trying to crap all over australia but when your minimum wage is $16 and its $10 in canada and what, $7 something in america things will and should cost more.
Minimum wages are irrelevant to whether or not people should be charged a fair price. But we don't need to derail another thread with the same old arguments about equal pricing in a global market.
If you believe that minimum wage doesn't have a large impact on pricing then you don't know much about how things work. Prices are based upon people's ability and willingness to pay. Forget anything you might have been told about production costs or anything like that. Those just represent a starting point to determine if a product is viable. The MSRP for a product is based upon what the target group is able and willing to pay and the profit the seller is willing to accept. That is exactly what defines "fair". If you personally aren't willing to pay the price, then you don't need to buy it.
Every single time minimum wage increases, the cost of basics such as milk, bread, clothing, housing, etc will go up. That's not because it suddenly costs that much more to produce - the human labor component in most of those items is neglible - it's because the people are now able and willing to pay more. It usually takes about 3 months after a mandated min wage increase before things "balance" back to how they were before.
It's really not that complicated and makes complete sense if you think about it.
If you really want price parity (same product, same price regardless of location) - then wages have to be normalized across the globe. There are a LOT of things that would have to change to make this happen. Not the least of which is governments giving up on imposing tariffs and various trade restrictions based on origination of the product. Then, you'd also have to have similar education levels so that the distribution of skilled workers was such that location no longer mattered. Good luck with that as the only real way to make it happen would be to have a single world government. =========
Back on topic:
I have a rather large collection of 40k - (~50k points across 9 armies), I started sometime after 5e was released. Since 7th hit, I've played exactly two full 40k games. I wasn't entirely crazy about how BB were handled in 6e - I think it should have been much more restrictive - and 7th's unbounded doesn't feel right as that was the entire purpose of Apoc. I just prefer games with more structure where you have to make real trade offs during the army creation phase. If they had a way of appropriately costing units based on capabilities/performance that was independent of the codex they are found in then I could see it working. However it's painfully obvious that point costs aren't exactly standardized.
All said, 7th just feels to me like one or more of the rules "designers" needs to retire. At the very least they need to hire a competent copy editor.
Now the 30k stuff is pretty solid. I find it rather amusing that ForgeWorld's HH books do a much better job of presenting Imperial history than the fluff in the core game book. It's to the point that I really think they should just put Alan Bligh in charge of 40k rule and background development and let Jervis go bother the WD team or something.
Do I think GW is "going under"? No. At least one poster compared them to Lehman brothers and Enron which is something you simply can't do. Heck, you can't even compare those two companies together as the machinations that brought them down were radically different.
What I see is this: GW continues to lose players and market share while scaling back. Existing management finally retires. New management comes in and things change. Maybe for the better, maybe for the worse. There is simply no way to predict the outcome. I'm not selling off my armies; but I'm certainly not spending very much with GW itself any more. I will likely pick up new FWHH books when they are released and there are two more codexes I'll likely pay for once they hit. In the meantime I'll continue painting my backlog of models and playing other games.
How does that make any sense? Should GW lower/raise prices per state in the US because of MW differences? There are some cities that are starting to have $10+ MW. Should they bump up prices there too?
make of it what you will.
ing idiot knows that good rules help sell models. 
) and every unit you buy represents a significant tactical choice for your army and can sometimes change the entire way you play, where in 
I couldn't find a painted picture of them.
