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With screening, more troops and the skimmer nerf will Chaos get a boost?

Plague Marines screen well, are good against horde lists like Orks, blights remove a powerfist attack on charging (which will have one less attack in 5e already). Rhinos are more viable, Plague Marines in 5-man squads can use dual specials and can run to get into range and a rhino rush combined with Termy summoning should be extremely potent if entanglement is less of an issue and with less powerfists to bother the Chaos Termies.

Skimmers and Harlies are less of a problem in 5e.

Lash will be even more applicable if people start using footsloggers.

I can already see a viable build using dual lash, mass plagues and mass termies with heavy flamer/combis.

Plague marines are very solid in my mind. Fists were the only thing that scared them and one less attack coming at them increases survivability a lot.

Given they are insanely hard to kill AND fearless means that they are invaluable for holding objectives.

I personally think Land Raiders got significantly better. AV 14 is VERY hard to kill now and coupled with Khorne Berserkers they bring a world of hurt while drawing significant firepower from the rest of your army.

And lets not forget that if you give possessed a rhino even scout now becomes useful!

Lets look at everything that got a helping hand from 5th ed.

1. Beserkers: With RUN! beserkers now have a chance at getting into assault. They also benefit from rhino buffs
2. Chosen: They can now pull off flanking maneuvers.
3. 1K sons: ideal troop choice, offers great KP denial, tough, kills everything. Plant them on an objective for the win.
4. Emperors kiddies: They havn't gained much. technically you can march them behind 1k sons for a 4+ cover save. Blastmasters aren't as nice for AT now.
5. Deamons: No escalation mean the will always have a chance to come into play. They can also hold objectives.

thats just the tip of the iceberg. Chaos is pretty sold now. Generic daemons still suck, but what ever.

I don't have the PDF, but won't oblits, TK and spawn get a speed boost from a change to the Slow and purposeful rule?

Berserkers will still suck.

Demons still suck.

Until the other Codices are brought into vanilla town, Chosen won't have the bodies to be truly effective.

Sure enough, here it is. People have forgotten already what the old chaos codex had.

"Khorne berserkers will be able to RUN!" Yeah, they certainly never got d6 inches [while still being able to charge] of extra movement last codex in this edition, no way.

Stelek wrote:Berserkers will still suck.

Demons still suck.

Until the other Codices are brought into vanilla town, Chosen won't have the bodies to be truly effective.

What is wrong with beserkers? 40 str 5 int 5 attacks seem pretty okay.
The only thing daemons do okay at is holding up ytoop like terminators of banshees, even then...

Demons don't hold anything up. Really, honestly, they don't. Never did when they weren't so bland and underpowered.

Zerkers gotta get into combat. Zerkers cannot run and charge in the same turn.

They run into range, you rapid fire them to death. Or assault them with I5+ troops and kill them, after all they're just marines with +1 attack.

Scary, these two units are not.

Teh_K42 wrote:I don't have the PDF, but won't oblits, TK and spawn get a speed boost from a change to the Slow and purposeful rule?

The rules didn't change, they are as slow as ever.

But Slow and purposeful do get the +1 attack charge bonus if the pdf is to be believed. Not a huge boost by any means but does help the spawn a bit.

Chaos is looking pretty good IMHO. None of the major nerfs really affect them. Their main problem matchup got a big nerf. They have great troops so the scoring changes aren't that big a deal. Plus their troops are pretty good spoilers for the new 5th ed teir ones (noise marines rip orks apart for instance).

one thing worth noting is that warptime slaneesh Princes aren't quite as nice with the new killzone.

Thanks Winterman.

I'm not sure about what's best for anti-inf, so lets say Havocs vs Noise Marines...

150 pts for 6 havocs w/ 4HB vs. 6 Noise Boys w/ sonic blasters for 150 pts- lets say some ork boyz are within 2ft-
Noise marines stand and shoot 18 shots, around 12 hit, around 6 wound, six dead boyz.
Havocs shoot 12 HB shots, around 8 hit, about 5 or 6 wound, 5/6 dead boyz, then 2 bolters, one hits, half a chance to wound, so that might bring the total for havocs to about six dead boyz.

So if I havn't screwed up the math then they both as good as each other, except EC can run and gun, score, fear nothing, worth 1 kpt and last longer in cc. Havocs are 2 Kp, ld9, stationary, and don't score but shoot further, so, that makes EC better. Did I get that right?

Also, with the new vehicle resilience does the defiler become decent or just less bad?

Actually my 5e Chaos list would probably be dual lash, plagues with rhinos and 10-man termy squads with heavy flamers, combis and IoS for +1I.

Against shooty lists you would rhino rush with termies DSing. Against horde assault you would use the rhinos to funnel, lash to control movement and tough troops that only suffer against powerfists. You would have to tailor the combi-weapons and plague squads to get the right balance of melta/plasma in a take-all-comers list tho.

Sonics are good if you don't plan on facing anything with better than a 5+ save but if you face marines in Rhinos you're in for an uphill match.

seems like the warband approach will work best. Think of chaos like eldar marines.

Stalek -

Instead of just saying "daemons suck" why don't you qualify why...

They are 13 points a pop for a fearless unit which won't get shot on the way in(if you have half a clue of how to move units) that you need to kill TO THE MAN to stop from being scoring. If you are playing an even moderately aggressive chaos army they are invaluable at coming in where needed and reinforcing the lines with a unit that didn't take any casualties on the way in.

IF for some reason you don't get them directly into combat the turn they come into play, they should be serving as a distraction for whatever squad deployed them. Shoot my daemons? then the rhino squad gets where it needs to be. Shoot the rhino and the daemons get in. Don't forget daemons can teleport in AND run (can't move in the movement phase but can act as normal after that), so even if out of position that helps get them that much closer.

Daemons are also not supposed to slaughter units, but to hold up your target while the rhino borne unit unloads and charges for the kill next turn, or to pin a unit for your teleporting termies to charge next turn.




Also, I again disagree berserkers suck. Sure they can't get directly into combat with a 6 inch move unless your opponent let's them. However, no sane general would walk them up. Chaos needs units to piggy back off of abilities...

You either A. put them in a rhino and drop them off BEHIND the rhino the turn before they are going to charge. Use them in conjunction with a lash sorcerer / prince to make sure the enemy gets pulled into charge range. 12inches + 2d6 should get you a charge in most scenarios.

or B. use a land raider (which now gets MUCH better in 5e) either with or without a lash.



Many units in the chaos list suck alone, but in conjunction with other units they are very solid...

I just wish you wouldn't say XYZ sucks and instead justify why. Every unit sucks if you use it wrong.

EDIT: for slowed english

I know all the tricks you speak of.

What will happen in 5th edition is, I'll lascannon your Rhino.

You'll get a 5+ cover save (in the turn you pop smoke). Odds are you'll fail.

If (ok, when) I blow up your Rhino, if I don't wreck it I'll be shooting your huddled up squads in their nice little 'template' formation.

Demons suck precisely because they are fearless. They cannot assault anyone to death, they can only tie them up briefly. Anyone with CC capabilities owns Demons. Since everyone is so happy to get cheap 5 man Demon units to score with, well you get what you pay for--cheap troops that cannot hide, only have a 5+ save (yeah, that's meaningless in 5th), and will either get shot off or assaulted off the board. Lose in CC and take 6 fearless wounds? Yeah, bye bye demon unit.

That's why demons suck. It seemed painfully obvious to me, but allright I'll explain it.

Why do Khorne Berserkers suck?

If I give you a billion ice cubes, and you don't have a cup to put them in--what good does having a billion ice cubes do for you?

You cannot depend on Lash to win you games. It's that simple. When you do, army XY and Z will autowin. Does that make Berserkers GOOD? If so, I want to show you my CC winning Tau Fire Warrior units. They're just as likely to end up in CC as Khorne Berserkers are.

Oh, and since I covered in that Chaos Army template a few threads down why these guys suck--why do I have to repeat myself ad nauseum? You have read it, right?

Zerkers and Demons suck because they do. If you don't agree, post a army list where they don't suck and I'm sure everyone will learn to fear your Zerker/Demon army.

In case you haven't heard, that army died when the old Codex did.

So according to you (Stelek) chaos isn't as a CC army. That's not quite what you've said but Dreads, possessed, spawn, Enhanced marines, zerks and daemons all being classed as second rate/crap leaves us with a DP and terminators (and maybe tougher defilers) to dish it out up close and personal.

@gdurant: Eldar marines? I don't get it.

Actually I don't think Daemons are worth the pts but I disagree that you shouldn't depend on Lash. It's a great tool against certain lists and this means that you just have to tailor your list against armies with lash counters. It's kind of like a SM list with 3 Whirlwinds. It lets your squads take anti-tank special/heavy weapons as you've already got a cheap counter to hordes.

Stalek - Let me first respond to the things in this post (daemons & berserkers) and then about your "Chaos Template" which will be in the appropriate thread.


First.. Daemons. You are obviously missing the big picture. Imagine a list with 3 rhinos with 2 characters on bikes. I wouldn't recommend daemons in a shooty list, because daemons are not suited/designed for a static or semi static list. So take your scenario of you pop my rhino. I'm either deploying my squad of PM's behind the rhino, for a 3+ armor, 4+ inv, 4+ FNP OR in front to get an extra 2 inches + a base closer to you, depending on the situation. Now, as we said before it is likely 8 daemons will get into combat on round 2 between some combination of the 3 rhinos and 2 bikes. Between those things it is LIKELY that I will get them into combat. Again, nothing is certain, as it is not certain your lasconnons will pop my rhino, etc. Against the majority of units 8 daemons will hold their own given that I am controlling where models get into combat. Remember, in the rhino army they only need to hold for your phase so the plague marines (or berserkers) and characters get into combat next turn.

As for they suck "precisely because they are fearless." How does that comment make sense AT ALL? If they weren't fearless they would be run down instead of losing (MAYBE) a few guys. 8 Daemons charging most things won't lose many guys given that i'm controlling the positioning and your models likely aren't clumped into a little group, so i'm losing at most only a few daemons in most situations. Let's say I lose 4, which takes a significant HTH punch if you do the math. I still have 4 left. EVEN if outnumbered 3 to 1 and I fail all 3 saves, I still have ONE daemon which is enough to hold till the PM's and characters get in the mix. The only thing that is really going to outnumber them is either orks (who you wouldn't be rushing at in the first place) or nids (who's termies/hormies won't kill 4 daemons when the daemons charge).

How would they be better if they WEREN'T fearless like your statement implies!??! IF they weren't fearless and they charged / lost and got wiped out they would have effectively done nothing, as they enemy can move next turn AND got a consolidate move. How is that better?!!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!? I fail to see it. Please explain this painfully obvious concept.

Your argument is centered around ridiculous situations that a good player would avoid in all reasonable situations. I agree anyone with serious CC abilities owns them (harlies, stealers, etc), however, you aren't going to be throwing daemons in on turn 2 to tie up those units. 5 man unit? I said at least 8 for the extra ring of charge range. Lose CC and take 6 wounds? Sure, but you have to be outnumbered 9 to 1 to take 6 wounds statistically and it's also unlikely that whatever you're trying to tarpit is going to kill 6 or 7 daemons AND have that many guys if you're positioned correctly when you charge.

Daemons certainly do not suck. They suck in static lists. They suck in lists that aren't aggressive. However, getting 8 daemons into combat without being shot is certainly effective. It also allows your rhino borne unit that just dumped them off to move up and use that combat as a shield from other shooting. The possiblities are endless.

I hate to see people read these forums and see you post in EVERY thread just saying "daemons suck" or "XYZ blows" or whatever. You have horrible reasoning as to why the units suck and fail to look at the big picture. You say things that are akin to "vehicles suck against lascannons." Are there games where the daemons will hide behind a piece of terrain all game to cap an objective? Yes. Is there a time when the daemons won't come out when you need them to or come out too early? Yes. But like every unit in the game, there are times when that lascannons fails to stop the rhino every



SECOND... Khorne berserkers... They are a little bit harder to argue for, as I feel they are only good in a few types of chaos armies. I think only 1 unit is worth taking, but I think the unit itself is very solid. You need to do a little bit of pin and charge. See above on how to pin with daemons. Next turn you're in with berskers, who slaughter most (not all) of the units they charge.

However, KB also make a lot of sense in a Land Raider, as their effectiveness goes way up on the charge. A single lascannon has about a 5% of STOPPING (including immobilizing) a smoked LR. That statistic includes the chance to "hit," as most of the stats I see on this board assume the gun hits. Now even if you stop the LR / KB, the amount of fire that they LIKELY took allows the other transports to get into proper position unharmed. Because things don't get entangled the KB's won't get to charge that turn, as they move up, but they will next turn, because you're rhino squads + daemons will have pinned what you need to kill.


I never said an army of daemons/KB's would work. It definitely wouldn't. However, i'm saying the units can be VERY effective in the right list, given the right strategy. They are DEFINITELY not auto pilot units.

Again, I'm not saying they are meant for every list, but they are VERY far from being "they suck, move on" which is pretty much what you're saying.

I will post as to why your chaos template is off in many areas in the actual thread.

EDIT: I went to comment on your template thread, but realized it was for 4th edition. That leads me to yet another point why the daemons / KB's are better. KB's SUCK in 4th. That I will agree with. In 5th that changes for the reason above, but both units are also good because they need to be killed TO THE MAN to not be scoring and never flee. They are also troops, so are only 1 kill point which is very important. If you think loading up on elites / fa / hs will work anymore, you're mistaken. This game is now about survivable or massed troops. Period.

winterman wrote: Plus their troops are pretty good spoilers for the new 5th ed teir ones (noise marines rip orks apart for instance).

Oh, really, do they?

6 Noise Marines with sonic blasters ~ 150 pts
25 Orc Shoota Boyz ~ 150 pts

Both builds not too unlikely.

NM get the better range lets say they start the dance. There are essentially 2 possible setups, either you get those Orks at 24.1 or more inches (case 'a' for quick reference) and have to move to get 2 shots per blaster or you are starting with those orcs in 17.9 or less inches (case 'b'). That's because if you (as the chaos player) did make the last move before the NM get to shoot and in doing so enforced a) (since it is not very likely you wanted to enforce b)). If the orcs did make this last move, a competent orc player would have enforced a) by himself or, if given the freedom by your inability to do the movement right, started very close to a) and then (knowing he cant get from a) to b) with a 6 inch movement) ran his orcs the expected value of 9.5 inches (talking 5th, aren't we?).

Case a)

6 NM = 12 shots, 8 hits, 4 wounds, 4 dead orcs ~ 16% of unit strength lost
On their turn orcs move to b). IIRC you won't be able to range-sniper them in 5th any more so I guess it's relatively save to assume they can all shoot back.
21 SB = 42 shots, 14 hits, 7 wounds, ~2,33 dead marines ~ 38,83% of unit strength lost
Not soo good for the NM, is it? From there on proceed to b)


Case b)

Chaos might choose to move back and the run in the shooting phase (case 'b1')
Chaos might choose to move back and fire on the move with 2 shots per sonic blaster (case 'b2'))
Chaos might choose to sit and shoot for 3 shots per sonic blaster (case 'b3')


Case b1)

Marines can't run any faster than orcs can, so essentially the orc player chooses wether he wants to end up at a) or b) again, please proceed with the respective bookmarks


Case b2)

NM are in 24 inches, get to shoot, orcs move up, are in 18 inches again, shoot back. Numbers equal those in a) and you end up and proceed again with b)


Case b3)

This should end up as the most favoring one for the chaos player, since he gets the most shots of. Oh well...

6 NM = 18 shots, 12 hits, 6 wounds, 6 dead orcs ~ 24% of unit strength lost
Orcs are free to move / fire / pos. charge as wanted. Say they'll fire:
19 SB = 38 shots, 12.66 hits, 6.33 wounds, ~2,11 dead marines ~ 35,16% of unit strength lost
Both of which are, of course, counted from b) beeing the starting position. If the firefight started with a) those numbers are of course even less favorable for chaos

From there on those marines are meat, since they won't get to charge by themselfes if the orcs don't want them to, though the orcs may choose to proceed and to take a waaagh move to maybe lock those marines in cc (if they happened to have a claw e.g.).
It is impossible for the NM to win the war of shooting attrition since it would take them at least 3 rounds of shooting (maybe more, depending on the actual mix of states as noted above, esp. more if the marines chose to run the other round because they didn't want to get in claw-range) to force any meaningful ld-test on the orcs after which we have showed, they (the NM) would be already completely annihilated!!

This is NOT counting any cover saves the orcs could benefit from while the marines would not. The above is as well NOT taking into account any unit-upgrades which would almost certainly lessen the NM efficiency against orc boyz. E.g. a PF champ on those NM wouldn't hurt those orcs by much in cc, though a claw boss would hurt those NM for sure. A heavy bolter would kill some 2 to 3 boyz more before they closed the gap but would render the NM static. A flamer can be completely avoided by a careful orc opponent while still firing at the marines. A NM with a blastmaster costs almost as much as 3 NM with sonic blaster and won't kill considerably more boyz than those. Of course, 2 to 3 rockits on the orcs would again hurt the marines. Each and every other heavy or special weapon for the marines would be pointless compared with the above. So virtually ANY common configuration of the two units under discussion would give those orcs more of an edge.

The above algorithm for vacuum orc and noise marine moving / shooting is so called tail-recursive, so one can even show mathematically that each and every sequence of the above states will terminate given an upper bound on the number of turns and, using complete induction, every such sequence will result in a loss for the noise marines.

SO wtf, winterman, are you talking about? To heck with unsupported statements.
To heck with Noise Marines.
Although I love them personally I have no illusions about them beeing more than a pitiful unit. Yes, it may be that they are better than certain other units in this very, very pitiful codex of ours but still, compared to a unit thats point-by-point awesome like orc boyz are, they apparently can't stand a chance!

Take some simple cross-references. Anybody remember Codex : Eye of Terror?
Back in those times not too long gone everybody bitched about the uberness that mutants were. Too efficient for only 6 pts I remember... Oh well, mutants are gone but tada, here is the new Codex : Powercreep which features boyz. Which are exactly the same cost as mutants used to be. Which have exactly the same profile as mutans had.
Oh, despite of course they get some sort of fearlessness. And furious charge. And a sort-of-stormbolter. And a champ with a str 8 fist rather than str 6. And assault 1 rocketlaunchers. And a better list encasing those standards.
Am I the only one who is asking himself why in the fluff orcs use to blackmail weapons from imperial worlds while in game their shoddy shoota is clearly superior to the sacred bolter? Damn, I'd give my left arm if my marines could have shootas and one bazukka per 10!!

On the other hand, compare noise marines with sonic blasters to... lets say grey knights. They are the same in points. They have the same profile. They have nearly the same weapon (storm bolter. As shown above one cant rely on taking more than once or twice a game those heavy 3 shots).
Oh, despite of course the grey knights get WS 5. And str 6 attacks. And true grit. And aegis armor. And deep strike. You get the picture.
Did anybody notice that there are no grey knight players out there? That's of course because their basic grey knight is such an uber buy for 25 points, as the NM are...

'Nuf said.

@ teh_k42: You forgot raptors which I feel are a good buy for their points and pretty assaulty I'd guess. Stelek didn't dismiss them either. In fact, raptors and termies are those rare occasions in the current dex where we were granted models with a common profile and a less attractive leadership than their imperial counterparts whilst not paying more points

Over and out

nice post Khorneflakes, although your conclusion isn't much good news. Do 6 havocs with 4HB fare better against boyz? If not does chaos NEED rhino spam for crowd control?

Yeah, I kinda figured the raptors to be shooty 5-man squads with 2 flamers or meltas for crowd control or tank busting respectively. I spose they'd do cc well, seeing as they would probably be in one piece before they assaulted.

I personally think Termies are the way to go. A squad of 5 with heavy flamer, 4 combi-flamers and lash sorc to draw them into range. I know power weapons aren't the way to go vs orks but 2+ save does help lots with the PF nerf. Alternatively you could go for a 10-man squad with 2 heavy flamers.

Could someone calculate the amount of flamers needed to kill a 30 man-squad of Orks assuming lash lets you arrange them?

Give it up Stelek
First off you Template doesn't make you the authority on Chaos.

Second off Zerkers can move an extra d6 inches and transports become viable again.

They are alot better than scorpions anyhow.

6 Noise Marines with sonic blasters ~ 150 pts
25 Orc Shoota Boyz ~ 150 pts

Both builds not too unlikely.

First what ork player will take shootas without klaw nob or rokkits? Or take less the 30 boyz? My unsupported claim was based on that fact.

10 NM 250 points
30 shootas, nob w/ claw, 3 rokkits 245 points

1) Shoot out (orks don't run/fleet)
your option b3 (agree the best and actually most likely outcome)
10 NM kill 10 orks (33% of starting strength)
Orks now have 3 rokkits, 16 sluggas and nob that can't shoot yet.
32 SB shots kill 1.777 marines
3 rokkits kill 0.833 marines for 2.61 total (26% or 30 if you wanna round).

If the ork doesn't charge and shoots instead

7 NM kill 7 orks (17 total, 57% of starting strength)
18 SB shots kill 1 marine
3 rokkits kill 0.833 marines
1 Nob slugga kills 0.055 marines for 1.88 dead marines (5 total for 50% of starting strength).

Basically your common shoota boy unit is gonna lose a shoot out with noise marines without cover. That was one of the calcs that lead me down the path of thinking about NM vs orks long before 5ed pdf dropped. My apologies that I didn't post it with my rip em up comment (which was an overstatement, I agree). Anycase I like your breakdown, it has got me thinking (even if your flamebait attempt lacked style, humor and was totally uncalled for).

Interesting how a mek with KFF changes it to favour the Shootas tho.

Interesting how a mek with KFF changes it to favour the Shootas tho.

True. Cover, KFF etc changes things immensily. Don't get me wrong the calcs are in a vacuum and aren't complete (no accounting various shoot, charge options). The above also doesn't take Lash into account either...

Teh_K42 wrote:

Also, with the new vehicle resilience does the defiler become decent or just less bad?

Personally, I don't think that the Defiler is all that bad even now. The way I have been using him is to give him all the close combat attacks possible and just running him up with the rest of my army. If memory serves after you give him all of the extra weapons he has 5 attacks base, does not increase in points cost, and with fleet he can really move. So with his demonic possession combined with the new vehicle resiliance I think he'll actually be a real nightmare in the right list (though it does still suck having to compete with the obliterators for heavy support slots). The only thing that will hurt him is that in the new rules it doesn't look like he will be scoring and he will be worth more kill points than a troops choice (but those kill points will be harder to get).

Hm, funny bit of knowledge I just became aware of:

1 Orc boy with rockit (16 pts) is less proficient at killing marines than his 2.5 shoota brethren (15 pts) would be.

Reasoning:

1 rockit on a boy is 16 pts and will kill 1 * 1/3 * 5/6 = 5/18 marines while 2 and a half boy (15 pts) kill exactly the same, 5 * 1/3 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 5/18
This is asuming that there never is a cover save involved. The rockit killyness would take a dent while those shootas didn't deny any save from start on.
Whilst killing the exact same ammount of marines for nearly the same cost those pure shootas are 2.5 times as tough, get 2.5 times the attacks in cc, add more to the 'count heads' rule etc. compared to the rockit boy.
The rockitboy would again lose efficiency vs. terminators and other 2+ saves.
The rockitboy loses out in efficiency vs. pure shootas in any setup with enemy forces with less a save than 3+ (IG, other Orcs, some Eldar...)
The rockitboy wins out at any targets that have greater toughness while still remaining with a 3+ save (Plague Marines, Necrons, Bikes, Demon Princes, Wraithguard, not many more come to (my) mind atm) AND of course, vehicles.

From there on I'd argue that

1) taking claws and rockits over pure boyz actually dilutes the shootyness of orcs vs. pure marines while 'widening' their list of possible targets. Taking this constraint as given for the orc in a shootout situation one should be very likely to equip those NM at least with a hefty penalty of a 40 pts blastmaster as well, to be fair. Maybe 8 with a blastmaster for 240, leaving you with 7 dead orcs plus blastmaster casualtys (arguably less than 3 at any rate).
Hard to imagine someone choosing 10 sb NM in a well rounded list just in case an orc player shows up. While thinking about it... a common footslogger list would have like 3 mobs of 30. You're really going to waste 750 Points for 3 troops slots that die as easily as 450 pts of normal marines while beeing only able to efficiently kill boyz and maybe gaunts?? Don't think so...

The 'beauty' of boyz lies in that they are efficient vs. almost any kind of opponent squad taking all the same upgrades anyway (3 rockits, claw) while you'd have to tailor a chaos squad (army) to the point of over-specialisation to come to the same footing vs. orcs! I for one am really seeing an unsolvable problem there, or a drawback from start on at the best!

2) Not sure if I get the idea right. In the described situation, do your boyz stay at range for the shootout?
They shouldn't. They won't lose the shootout because they are
a) either equipped with a claw. Your assumption. In this case they'd most probably don't stay in for a shooting but permit the NM a single turn of heavy 3 shooting, at best two and afterwards shoot... AND charge! Or
b) They shoot with more boyz and win

That's what I tried to point out: Either they are build to shoot you to death (no claw, so between almost 7 more boyz and the former nob shooting, too, which makes a HUGE difference of almost one complete marine per shooting phase) or they are not. If they are not, then of course they might lose a shootout, but I'd be pretty confident that orc player knows he had to be in hth to gain the advantage of a claw.

math dakka inc.

Your example:
30 Orcs run into less than 18 inches. 10 are killes outright.
Note: At this point chances are that the orcs maybe get a waaagh move, for 12 + d6 inches and a (possible, if situation dependent) chance to charge. The example would end outright. Given this doesn't happen. 2.6 marines die, orcs are in < 12 inches already.

Next turn, the orcs advance. Rounding to your favour, 8 Marines lived and killed 8 orcs, so we are down to 12 orcs (still no leadership).
Orcs shoot back, afterwards (again to your favour) 6 Marines still stand (as opposed 13 orcs vs 5.5 marines following your calc.).
Orcs charge at any rate (assault weapons only).
6 Marines get I 5 rather than 4 (whohoo ;-)), 12 attacks, 6 hits, 3 wounds, 2.5 dead orcs, 3 to your favour.
8 leftover boyz are bound to kill 2 marines on the spot, the pk nob slaughters ~ 2.1 more. Down to 2 marines.

Sadly you missed to win the combat by a small margin, take 3 additional wounds for beeing fearless and better hope that you fail at least 2 so both of your marines die. Otherwise you will last your own turn with a snowballs chance in hell to kill 9 orcs and a claw (10 wounds worth) with 1 single marine, unable to shoot the orcs and breaking on your turn, allowing the orcs to proceed another d6 + 12 inches to the next squad.

math dakka ceased

Bottom line (on average, as always) :
Shootaboyz WILL win a firefight against a completely tuned-to-dakka-em NM squad of doom (and same points value ;-)) regardless of any cover if tuned to do so (raw shootas, maybe a rockit or 3, no claw, following my former calcs). If not build that way, but with a hth-claw, they absolutely have no reason to stay in your prefered range and get shot up, but will take you on in hth even w/o waaagh and rounding to the NM favour (above calc). Even worse, in the desribed situation they'd win hth in the worst way (for chaos).

Sad but true, it's not that I like it. Point for point shoota boyz own marines in shooting AND hth alike. Even more so with NM, which are almost only half as many. So they have from 2 to 3 times the dakka. But 1/2 times 2 (times 3 for only a single, maybe 2 turns of shooting) still happens to be seldom more than the same dakka and again half as much hth punch, wounds, bleh. So in my completely hypothetical book of mathhammer the only ways to break them would be to either use alpha-strike matters (termies, raptors with flamers) to denie them their backswing and/or combined fire to take advantage of leadership.
Hail to anybody who offers a better solution, honestly and without grief I just don't think NM are by any means (again, I used to love them, with this nifty little bunch of naked women in tow )

Darn, late again. Over and out,

Khorneflakes

Good post. How would you rate Boyz vs Plague Marines mathhammer wise and how about big shootas vs more boyz?