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Predictions for 2007

Thanks for the link!

Nice.

Maybe we can hope that the original GW crew from back in the day have bought up all those shares, and will be returning GW back to the golden days...

...or not. Maybe Pfizer has bought in. Hey, everyone is always saying how GW products are like crack. Why *not* a drug company?

What percentage of controlling interest do those shares that changed hands represent anyways?

Interesting to read under the C and D subheadings.

Though I think most of us have speculated all of this before.

"Privateer Press is about to experience the agony & the ecstasy of the hockey stick curve. They are the only one-eye?d man in hobby gaming that is going to generate sales growth from the acquisition of new players who will be buying and using their products as intended: as gaming components."

I lol'd

Posted By Strangelooper on 01/11/2007 3:06 PM
Nice.

Maybe we can hope that the original GW crew from back in the day have bought up all those shares, and will be returning GW back to the golden days...

...or not. Maybe Pfizer has bought in. Hey, everyone is always saying how GW products are like crack. Why *not* a drug company?

What percentage of controlling interest do those shares that changed hands represent anyways?

I believe the article quoted 7.83%.

AND I'd just like to pipe in that everyone should be nice here and resist walking toward the following dead horses who've been throughly been flogged on Dakka and elsewhere:

-Why GW sucks
-Why people who think GW sucks are stupid whiners
-Why Dakka's gone to hell because of whining
-Why Dakka hasn't gone to hell because whinners have big heavy beatsticks
-Why the Yankees suck

The site is more than a knee jerk reaction.

Cruel Zoo-Keeper...

It's a shame about White Wolf, I spent (wasted) a goodly portion of my late teens/early twenties playing their games. But they screwed it up.

"One of the top 5 distributors will go bankrupt by the end of 2007. That failure will have a trickle-down effect, taking a mid-tier publisher or two with it, and seriously damaging several more. Unlike previous years, the survivors will not attempt to buy it for its mailing list, or its inventory assets. In the resulting liquidation, a massive wave of recent products will be remaindered via eBay, suppressing used game sales nationally for at least six months afterward. I predict the collapse will occur between ORIGINS and GenCon."

I don't know about y'all, but I remember the mid-late 90s, when TSR was self-destructing and everyone was freaking out about 'those card game guys' buying them, Ral Partha and FASA were in meltdown, and Target and Heartbreaker games were both dying on the vine. Even then, GW and White Wolf were healthy and not yet bloated (5th ed. fantasy had just come out and 3rd ed. 40k was on the horizon), new companies like DP9 and Reaper were up and coming, and there was a sense that AD&D had played itself out (there was still a healthy retail environment as well). None of those factors exist today: if anything, the gaming market is starting to look more and more like the comic book industry right before it fell down and went boom. That would be a very, very bad thing.

Ah, the fin de siècle.

Posted By syr8766 on 01/11/2007 7:30 PM
if anything, the gaming market is starting to look more and more like the comic book industry right before it fell down and went boom. That would be a very, very bad thing.

The comicbook industry collapsed because every store and most buyers were speculating on books and the industry catered to that with limited series, special covers and one-offs that eventually killed the market.

Stores were invested in buying product for speculators and not providing a market for people who just wanted to read comic books.

That market collapsed as bubbles do. The game industry isn't a bubble.

It strikes me that the issue now is that there are a lot of places that sell online at a discount and it takes the cream from local resellers.

Posted By Strangelooper on 01/11/2007 3:06 PM

What percentage of controlling interest do those shares that changed hands represent anyways?

Enough to make Kirby cry because he doesnt have as much as who has it now.

Who that is, not sure.

I wonder if Tom Kirby can say the word "Termination". If not, I am sure he will know the definition really soon...

Posted By pixelgeek on 01/11/2007 7:56 PM

Posted By syr8766 on 01/11/2007 7:30 PM
if anything, the gaming market is starting to look more and more like the comic book industry right before it fell down and went boom. That would be a very, very bad thing.

The comicbook industry collapsed because every store and most buyers were speculating on books and the industry catered to that with limited series, special covers and one-offs that eventually killed the market.

Stores were invested in buying product for speculators and not providing a market for people who just wanted to read comic books.

That market collapsed as bubbles do. The game industry isn't a bubble.

It strikes me that the issue now is that there are a lot of places that sell online at a discount and it takes the cream from local resellers.

True, it's not a one-to-one correlation, but the reliance on CMG/CCGs and the impact of speculators in the form of big industry giants (Hasbro, Mattel) makes me just as nervous. I think stores are probably more vulnerable than they were then; certainly the stores that dabble in hobby product (i.e. the comic shop that stocks some clixs and D&D, the model shop that carries some minis ) are.

Posted By pixelgeek on 01/11/2007 7:56 PM
It strikes me that the issue now is that there are a lot of places that sell online at a discount and it takes the cream from local resellers.

That's part of the issue.

The other part of the issue is that too many stores expect to be able to just sit back and wait for people to run through the doors and buy stuff.

If the market is slowly moving online, then instead of just complaining that online stores are stealing their sales, stores need to be proactive, and find ways to make money through the things that online stores can't offer... like table space.

I know from my brief time working in a games store that the money in the trading card scene is really more from tournaments than from actually selling cards. The cards are just there to get people to enter the tournaments.

I think wargaming needs to follow suit. Stores need to be focusing on running leagues, campaigns and tournaments to replace the income they're losing from online sales.

Of course this means that the people setting up games stores need to put a bit more thought into how they do it. I think the days of the tiny hole-in-the-wall gaming store are numbered. The stores that survive will be the ones that offer a comfortable place for gamers to play, paint and just generally socialise with other gamers, and that push a big competitive and/or organised gaming scene... preferrably without the hole-in-the-wall's trademark eau d'unwashed teenager.

That's too bad, though. Retail space in urban areas is fading, which means that
the urban market gets less exposure. I grew up in the city and saw little, if any,
miniatures gaming. Task berated me for not finding some of the city haunts, but
none of my friends ever played this stuff growing up so if I was hanging with
them, I was not really able to go out and find people to game.

I find it hard to get too depressed about this. Gaming as we enjoy it isn't in any danger of dying out, any more than comic books died out in '94. The really good people kept making comics, even after the "industry" tanked. We're going to see a lot of new, small publishers enter the market, perhaps with direct web sales of product.

The idea of gaming store catering more as a social gathering space is an intriging idea. We have something like that here in Portland; the Ordo Fanaticus. They don't sell anything; they just charge admission/membership.

I like to think that GW will still be getting some of my dollars as long as they employ Jervis, Jes, and/or Rick, but who knows how much longer that will be?

Yeah, just look at Ebob miniatures. He's going great guns! He started sculpting for himself (having been turned down for a job at the Evil Empire) and started with a few close tie-ins to LotR. Then he produced a WW2 game and other stuff. His latest venture is the Braveheart era.

He enjoys what he does and but with no big overheads he's selling enough over the internet to keep himself in lard.

Hasslefree miniatures is another one.

Seriously, the only people bothered are those that like big "official" events.

Personally I grew up in gaming in the late '70's/early 80's, when the only "big" player was TSR, everyone else was a one-man (or in the case of GW two-man) band. It wasn't that bad.

Mass-market and "big player" aren't necessarily synonymous with "customer interest".

As a guy who plays wargames with a handful of friends in my dining room, I couldn't give a flying fig if all the "support" that the big guys offer disappeared tomorrow. I'm simply not interested in it anyhow.

As long as I can buy stuff off the 'net to paint that's interesting and play the odd game with it, then I'm a happy bunny.

"The King is Dead. Long live the People's Republic!" I say...

Where is the horse and the rider?  Where is the horn that was blowing?  They have passed like rain on the mountains, like wind in the meadow.  The days have gone down in the west, behind the hills, into shadow.  How did it come to this? :(

Malfred - your web-fu is slipping.  I originally pulled that link from the GW profit slide continues thread here on Dakka.  Asmodai gets the credit for digging that blog up.

How does a gaming store based on providing just space function? If you look at how many people you need for membership, it looks to me like it is a losing battle - you need far more memberships than you can provide space to play. How have businesses like that made it work?

It does seem like a problem that the on-line retailers are skimming the cream of the profitability - not making it impossible to turn a profit, but making it very very hard.

Ah, thanks for the heads-up Ran.

Interesting read

Rogue's Den tried the "hangout" idea, and it didn't work. Granted I don't know all the ins and outs and hows and whys of why they're gone, but my first guess is they just didn't sell enough. I think that will be the main problem of most places that go for that kind of business model. I think you need to be a store first and foremost, that allows space to play games that are purchased there .. if I was a store owner (and I almost was at one point) I'd be kinda pissy if kids kept coming in bragging about the cheap army they just bought off ebay while I'm struggling to sell stuff collecting dust on my shelves. I mean, if there's a few stores in the area you expect folks to buy some things here and other things there, but in general, if you're playing in a store, ya better buy stuff there.. because chances are, if folks play and don't buy, the store won't last long and you'll be back to playing on mom's dining room table stacking up books to make hills.

And on the other side of the fence, the store has to really promote stuff and not just be like "yay, welcome, come and play and have a cup of coffee" .. demo games for anyone that asks, of more than just 2 or 3 games, a staff that knows these games and wants people to play em.. events every weekend.. every night if the place gets a big following. And staff members who can also play with folks who have no one to play with, even the smelly kids. Cuz smelly kids have money they wanna spend. If someone shows up for a game and no one's playing, that someone will leave. Someone that leaves = money not spent. It could be a social kind of a store, but it still has to be a store. People ain't gonna pay a fee to play, it's not a pool hall where you pay for the table, so the only way to make money is to make sure your product gets sold.

Posted By Antonin on 01/12/2007 7:50 AM
How does a gaming store based on providing just space function? 

I don't think it would. At least not for very long.

I didn't say they should only provide space... space is merely a part of the package. In most cases, they would still need to be selling miniatures. They would be silly not to, in fact, since even if people are buying online, a certain number of impulse sales always happen when you put a bunch of gamers in front of a wall of miniatures.

My point was merely that stores should be looking at other potential income streams, rather than just complaining that people aren't buying miniatures. Tournaments, leagues, and campaigns are all options to get people to pay to game. But you need the space to run them, and someone capable of actually doing so... two things that many smaller gaming stores lack.

The more people you get into the store, the more sales you make... even if they're not buying miniatures, gamers can generally be relied on to throw large amounts of cash at junk food if you keep them in the store long enough... and the profit margin on that stuff is huge.


Necros... Yup, Rogue's Den did spring to mind as an example of this approach not working... but without any sort of specifics on why it didn't work, I don't see it as proof that the idea itself is flawed. I suspect in their case it was just too much, too fast... too many expenses, too slow getting a return from it. Or even just that they weren't in the right area for what they were trying to do... no matter how good a store you set up, it's going to fail if the market's simply not there.

But that's just guessing...

I think it would be a bit of a balancing act at first, finding the set-up that works... right area, right amount of space vs cost of rent, right balance between store and gaming hangout, comfortable vs cost of setting it up in the first place... the list goes on.

As an aside, this is a very US-centric view of the gaming industry. GW, in particular, have a very different business model in the UK to the rest of the world.

Not that I necessarily disagree with it, but it's an observation.

None of this is really any different from any market cycle, especially in smaller, niche markets. Really, I am surprised there hasn't been more aggressive consolidation by now. Hobby retail stores are dying a slow death- they have for over a decade. But the startup costs are still low enough that amateurs can still get into, so they do. And usually fail spectacularly. Those that survive quickly realize that *established* CCGs are an easy cash cow (low stocking requirements, quick turnover, low unit cost supports impulse buying, good promotion/support) and miniatures are a drain (high inventory/stocking costs, lower turnover, fierce internet price competition, little/more time & effort required for support). Books are a laughably bad investment most of the time as they take up alot of space, tend to be highly specialized, and dedicated bookstores can easilly beat you on selection.

More organized retail efforts such as Hobby Lobby seem to be doing okay, but have stiffer requirements and are less sensitive to fluctuations in sales thanks to more varied inventory. I expect these to continue to increase retail share as independants drop off.

As to the manufacturers, PP is in no real danger. Even if they get bought up, and subsequently driven into the ground its a win for them. GW is seeing the continuing effects of poor product design and business decisions. But the IP is still valuable, so a buyout is not impossible (though I think it somewhat unlikely). They are still the top dog in miniature gaming, so reports of their demise have been greatly exagerrated. The card manufacturers have problems that the article accurately points out. White Wolf is on life support. Expect the plug to be pulled. WoTC is a whole different animal. Never underestimate Magic. Their sales continue to grow despites downturns in the general industry. D&D/D20 is still being pushed and seems to be keeping the RPG market alive. WoTC consistently tries new products and pulls the ones that fail. I expect they will continue to do so.
Wizkids. Heh. How they have managed to stick around this long amazes me. Heroclix still sells (some places) but their product lines seem to regularly collapse (MageKnight, HorrorClix, etc.).

I was interested to see that there was very little mention of foreign manufacturers. Rackham, for example, seems to be doing fine, both with its fantasy lines and new sci-fi game. And Corvus Belli's Infinity could do good things. Likewise, nationally, Reaper seems to be faring well enough to have expanded into their own minis game (Warlord) and Hasslefree, Magnificent Egos, etc. seem to be doing just fine. I do wonder how long Aberrant will hold on, though (Rezolution just doesn't seem to be catching). And Mongoose seems to be in some trouble with recent snafus....

Should be some interesting times.

Posted By jmurph on 01/18/2007 9:45 AM
Those that survive quickly realize that *established* CCGs are an easy cash cow (low stocking requirements, quick turnover, low unit cost supports impulse buying, good promotion/support) and miniatures are a drain (high inventory/stocking costs, lower turnover, fierce internet price competition, little/more time & effort required for support).

The exception is Collectible Miniatures Games - CMGs - like WotC's Star Wars and D&D games. They have the same stocking, turn-over and impulse buying qualities as CCGs.

In terms of retail structure, they're closer to CCGs than they are to traditional GW/PP type miniatures games.

Posted By jmurph on 01/18/2007 9:45 AM


As to the manufacturers, PP is in no real danger. Even if they get bought up, and subsequently driven into the ground its a win for them. GW is seeing the continuing effects of poor product design and business decisions. But the IP is still valuable, so a buyout is not impossible (though I think it somewhat unlikely). They are still the top dog in miniature gaming, so reports of their demise have been greatly exagerrated. The card manufacturers have problems that the article accurately points out. White Wolf is on life support. Expect the plug to be pulled. WoTC is a whole different animal. Never underestimate Magic. Their sales continue to grow despites downturns in the general industry. D&D/D20 is still being pushed and seems to be keeping the RPG market alive. WoTC consistently tries new products and pulls the ones that fail. I expect they will continue to do so.
Wizkids. Heh. How they have managed to stick around this long amazes me. Heroclix still sells (some places) but their product lines seem to regularly collapse (MageKnight, HorrorClix, etc.).

For clarity, when you say "they get bought up" do you mean GW or PP?

It can be done. You just need dedicated folks willing to make it so.

HQtheclub is another one in the NE. We all got tired of stores jerking us around....so we rent our own space and thats that.

It CAN work. But it takes alot of work to get going....

Posted By malfred on 01/18/2007 11:15 AM

Posted By jmurph on 01/18/2007 9:45 AM
...stuff....

For clarity, when you say "they get bought up" do you mean GW or PP?

PP. Either they continue making product and money, or they get a pile of cash on sellout. Of course, a bad buyer sucks for the consumers....

I agree that CMGs are closer to CCGs in retail terms. They are slightly more encumbering, but otherwise follow a similar model. Unfortunately, they don't seem to have similarly established cash cows. Though Star Wars seems to do well. I understand that the WizKids CMGs are far less predictable and vary widely in sales by region.