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No. It will not.

I don't see this being the case. As many others have said, 40k is too much the breadwinner for GW that risking its success in any shape or fashion could literally kill the company. I believe that's why we see 40k in the state it is currently- they don't know what to do to increase interest in the game short of making things bigger and better with each release/edition. Now, that has its own effect of driving away customers and discouraging new players, but the effect is much slower than a massive shake-up on the scale of AOS.

Now, I have no idea what GW is going to do with 40k in the long run. I think 8th edition (whenever it arrives) will mark a clear path that GW plans to take with 40k for a long time.

Yes, they will.

GW is only interested in how many models they can sell, and AOS's rules allows you field anything you want with minimal fuss - both in playing and developing rules. In their mind, giving the AOS treatment to 40K won't destroy it - people will keep blindingly buying whatever GW shovels onto a cartridge - I mean puts in a kit.

It's likely this decision was already made long ago - after the first month that they looked at AOS's sales when that edition was released - or possibly even earlier with the End Times books/models. To them, it was a success.

It is coming, and we'll see it when GW's financials descend to a critical point and they "need to open up sales".

 Stormonu wrote:
Yes, they will.

GW is only interested in how many models they can sell, and AOS's rules allows you field anything you want with minimal fuss - both in playing and developing rules. In their mind, giving the AOS treatment to 40K won't destroy it - people will keep blindingly buying whatever GW shovels onto a cartridge - I mean puts in a kit.

It's likely this decision was already made long ago - after the first month that they looked at AOS's sales when that edition was released - or possibly even earlier with the End Times books/models. To them, it was a success.

It is coming, and we'll see it when GW's financials descend to a critical point and they "need to open up sales".

I don't agree.

It's clear that AoS drove away as many ex-WHFB players as it engaged new players.

40K accounts for something like 80% of GW's annual sales. They simply can't afford to drop half of that and start building it up again.

If GW decide to change the game, they've got to do something that will carry forwards current players and re-engage lapsed players like me, in the greatest possible numbers.

Welcome to Warhammer 50k! The Tau have been all but annihilated with only the Ethereal caste surviving, but worry not! Ethereals can summon tau our of thin air and straight onto the battlefield! If I understand anything the 40k universe has been been in the "End times" since the lore for it was introduced. I suspect a "fall of mankind" update that introduces more armies to appeal to a wider audience that at the same time are forced into the lore. (I'm betting on another precursor race/the old ones that specialize in fantasy styled MCs and an all melee human faction that mimics fantasy humans, maybe melee guard with energy catapults or something ridiculous.)

 Kilkrazy wrote:

 Stormonu wrote:
Yes, they will.

GW is only interested in how many models they can sell, and AOS's rules allows you field anything you want with minimal fuss - both in playing and developing rules. In their mind, giving the AOS treatment to 40K won't destroy it - people will keep blindingly buying whatever GW shovels onto a cartridge - I mean puts in a kit.

It's likely this decision was already made long ago - after the first month that they looked at AOS's sales when that edition was released - or possibly even earlier with the End Times books/models. To them, it was a success.

It is coming, and we'll see it when GW's financials descend to a critical point and they "need to open up sales".

I don't agree.

It's clear that AoS drove away as many ex-WHFB players as it engaged new players.

40K accounts for something like 80% of GW's annual sales. They simply can't afford to drop half of that and start building it up again.

If GW decide to change the game, they've got to do something that will carry forwards current players and re-engage lapsed players like me, in the greatest possible numbers.

Stuffs already made if they don't release it then they also lose a fortune, models they can still sell the books not so much.

If they are aiming at 8 year olds grimdarks going bye bye and with it the players.

On the plus side the players 8th edition will be miles better than anything GW could manage.

 ProwlerPC wrote:
It would make no sense for GW to AoS 40K. I think they'll do it.

Why not?

AOS was a desperate measure to reboot a much loved franchise that was dying (in sales). 40k isn't dying in sales but gradually declining. At some point they will look to a reboot if(when) the decline reaches a critical level. Their strategy seems misguided to many of us but it seems to be that AOS is their entry level product 40k is their bread and butter and 30k is their elite level product. Their shift to boardgames is their attempt to cash in on a growing market in hobby/gaming.

With the relaunch of bloodbowl on the cards it should be an interesting 2016/2017.

AoS happened because Fantasy wasn't selling well enough.

40k is not selling as well as it used to be... if something doesn't change soon GW will probably feel like they have to take the same drastic steps they took with AoS, but then if AoS's rumoured sales are anything to go by they'll never attempt anything like that again.

No it will not.

Why? Perspective.

Back when the Chapterhouse lawsuit with GW was on-going. GW had to reveal some numbers as to their profits and try to show the impact Chapterhouse had on them.

Warhammer Fantasy, Citadel (paints), Black Library, Forgeworld accounted for roughly 48% of their revenue.

Warhammer 40K = 52%

Let those numbers sink in for a few seconds. The total money coming in from Fantasy, paints, novels and Forge World is less than what comes in from 40K alone.

Fantasy had to change or die. Unfortunately it changed for the worse in the opinions of many and I doubt they are doing better.

If they make such a drastic change to 40K it could really mean the death of the company.

What I see as plausible would be advancing the fluff, maybe coincide with a new edition but nothing as drastic as AoS.

Now I hope we can go one month without some bs clickbait article preaching the doom of 40K through Sigmarisation.

AOSing 40k will happen in the next 5 years.

The sales are declining super fast. They just maintained last year because of the release of Calth and Sigmar.

From retailers, their Assassins and Deathwatch board games just flop. GW is releasing Rapid Fire stuff just to maintain the current level of sales, and it's not enough.

GreyCrow wrote:
AOSing 40k will happen in the next 5 years.
The sales are declining super fast. They just maintained last year because of the release of Calth and Sigmar.
From retailers, their Assassins and Deathwatch board games just flop. GW is releasing Rapid Fire stuff just to maintain the current level of sales, and it's not enough.

I like the new board games, they are well produced and are fun.
It is like the old days.
BUT the price point... my goodness... only the hard-core GW gamers would consider them.
The casual buyer looks at $200 or more as a bit crazy without something being gold plated.

@Talizvar : Yep, it's mainly the pricing that turns people away from them. Twice as much as other minis.

My answer is... eventually.

I think a partial AoS-ing is in order. I think they can learn from what happened with AoS (solid idea with conceptual errors that are fixable) and convert that over to their breadwinner.

At the end of the day, 40k is very difficult for a fresh-faced new gamer to get into. Between the novel-worth of rules, then codex specific rules, and the buy-in to play standard sized games; it's arguably irrational at this point to consider new people into the game.

Some simplification needs to be done. Keep the Epic Level for the Apoc games, but there needs to be a push for new people and a reasonable buy-in.

God I hope not, AoS was the biggest bunch of crap, it was a lazy cop out to sell new models. They could have written a much better story rather then ,"lol chaos destroy everything and sigmar makes the space marines....I mean.."

If they do take an AoS route, I hope it's not as aweful as AoS where they just nuke the whole universe, but rather just have chaos make crazy gains, then the Big E shows up agains

 Talizvar wrote:

GreyCrow wrote:
AOSing 40k will happen in the next 5 years.
The sales are declining super fast. They just maintained last year because of the release of Calth and Sigmar.
From retailers, their Assassins and Deathwatch board games just flop. GW is releasing Rapid Fire stuff just to maintain the current level of sales, and it's not enough.

I like the new board games, they are well produced and are fun.
It is like the old days.
BUT the price point... my goodness... only the hard-core GW gamers would consider them.
The casual buyer looks at $200 or more as a bit crazy without something being gold plated.

Both Calth and Deathwatch were games that I thought looked like they had really awesome models in them, I totally want them. Every time I go into my FLGS they have them sitting around not really moving, even below retail, but when i check the price all I can think is how I could grab a couple of boxes of warmachine, plus fill a tank of gas and eat for the week for the same price...

For those quoting 40K being GW's biggest moneymaker:

We know, at some point, 8th edition is coming. We've already seen other "big" companies take missteps with their IP; WotC with 4E is the best example I can think of off the bat, but there are many others as well - White Wolf with its original World of Darkness series, Coke/New Coke and the like.

If you don't think GW can bungle its prime IP, you don't realize how foolish companies can be gambling to salvage sales. 40K may not get turned directly into AOS, but its very likely it will recieve a "tweaked" treatment; GW has shown already in even 40K codexes it is moving in this direction.

I think the next release of GW's financial report will be interesting.
What is really telling is where they drag out enough money for dividends.
I am sure this is how the big guys pay themselves and so it is not an option to give it a pass.
How hard it is to squeak-out a dividend will decide in direct proportion that something drastic needs to change.
Kinda "tail wagging the dog" where our wants as customers decides their income but they decide if things get uncomfortable enough to change (No market research!).
It will be truly a roll of the dice what they determine is our "spending problem".

I do have to say: management firmly believes they are a model company, so would it not be logical the model design would the focus for the shake-up?
I am sure they will do the rules tweak just to be sure because how can it hurt right?
They are not all that important so changing them might help...

Not Exactly, but kind of....

I think you can leave the central game alone, although a rule tidy up would be nice, any stories / forge the narrative can be told the via the big box games with simpler rules, which also contain mini's for the core game (usually at quite reasonable, by GW rates, price) so they appeal to newcomers and vets

I dont think we are going to see an AoS things happening, but what we are going to see a lot more of is things like knights renegade, death watch, space hulk, DV. things like that. GW knows, that WH 40k cant draw in new people that well.

Because how awful of a marketing plan is, "Oh so you want to get into warhammer? Cool so thats gonna run you about 200 for an army, 85 for the rule book, 60 for the codex, another probably 25 for for paints to make them half decent, 20 for 2 brushes, and then another 10 for dice....so around 400 just to get a small army and get into the hobbie....."

Vs

"Oh hey, check out this X game, 150 bucks and you get this really cool board game, you can paint the pieces if you want to. OH and these guys are actually part of a bigger game called warhammer 40k, and you can use these models for that game as well if you want, or you can keep playing this game."

X = Deathwatch, lost patrol, knights, DV, Space hulk, ect ect.

Honestly as of late GW has been on point with drawing in new customers using this tactic, they finally got that you cant expect new players to drop 400 bucks just to get started in the hobby. You gotta ease them into it.

Those board games are like that drug dealer who sells to kids....hey kids....wanna buy some plastic crack? everyone is doing it. Here have just a taste of it. *Hands deathwatch overkill*

Formations will be the AoSing of 40k - And it''l be easy peasy for GW as well.

One page rules.

One page rules that can be changed or invalidated on a whim to sell more bundles.

One page rules which can be made exclusive to box of minis, that collectors may already have but have to buy for the sheet of a4 paper that is inside.

Formation box sets.

Formation box sets with exclusive bundle minis.

Formation box sets with exclusive VARIANT bundle minis.

No need for expensive rules writers and editors - the existing staff can be tasked to make narrative and fluffy rules for whatever the sales team needs to push for that quarter.

Codexes can be fluff and artwork pieces - with variant artwork and campaign ideas. Gw can get digital to work for them - By adding variant formation rules and campaign ideas on a subscription level service.

Its win for GW in the age of formation!

 Mr. Burning wrote:
Formations will be the AoSing of 40k - And it''l be easy peasy for GW as well.

One page rules.

One page rules that can be changed or invalidated on a whim to sell more bundles.

One page rules which can be made exclusive to box of minis, that collectors may already have but have to buy for the sheet of a4 paper that is inside.

Formation box sets.

Formation box sets with exclusive bundle minis.

Formation box sets with exclusive VARIANT bundle minis.

No need for expensive rules writers and editors - the existing staff can be tasked to make narrative and fluffy rules for whatever the sales team needs to push for that quarter.

Codexes can be fluff and artwork pieces - with variant artwork and campaign ideas. Gw can get digital to work for them - By adding variant formation rules and campaign ideas on a subscription level service.

Its win for GW in the age of formation!

im ok with this so long as codexs allow you to continue to add onto the models.

or that the individual unit boxes give more options then just the formation box set

@Backspacehacker : Yep, but these games can't bring new players if they don't sell :p

The gaming stores I frequent assure me that nobody new to the hobby is going to shell out 150€ for a demo game. Almost 100% of their customer base for these games are players that already plaid 40k and who find the models cool and beautiful.

40k will, at the very least, not be AoS'd into something like AoS: a literal pointless skirmish game with a barebones set of rules. I heard that GW was using AoS as a gauge for how the market (specifically NOT the fanbase, as even they knew that the fanbase would universally loathe it) would take it. Given that AoS has not improved sales from Fantasy (and may have actually lost them money) they're not going to go that route with 40k, since they would kill their actual cash cow franchise.

However the idea now seems to be using 40k miniatures in spin-off games, while leaving 40k as the wider game to give a reason for people to buy more than one of the spinoff game. Think of it like 40k being MTG's VIntage mode, while the board games range from Standard to Modern.

Will 40k be "AoS"ed?

Short answer: No

Long answer: Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

 EnTyme wrote:
Will 40k be "AoS"ed?

Short answer: No

Long answer: Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.

Someone been watching Yahtzee?

(I saw your comment come up on that exact video)

 Talizvar wrote:
I think the next release of GW's financial report will be interesting.
What is really telling is where they drag out enough money for dividends.
I am sure this is how the big guys pay themselves and so it is not an option to give it a pass.
How hard it is to squeak-out a dividend will decide in direct proportion that something drastic needs to change.
Kinda "tail wagging the dog" where our wants as customers decides their income but they decide if things get uncomfortable enough to change (No market research!).
It will be truly a roll of the dice what they determine is our "spending problem".

I do have to say: management firmly believes they are a model company, so would it not be logical the model design would the focus for the shake-up?
I am sure they will do the rules tweak just to be sure because how can it hurt right?
They are not all that important so changing them might help...

I'm interested to see their financials too. Everyone keeps crying the death of 40k, but the Getting Started! sets and all the new SM books and board games make it seem like GW is still rolling in money.

@jreilly89 : You can find the annual reports here http://investor.games-workshop.com/

They have decent cash flow, but it's shrinking down.

The question is, what do you mean by AoS?

Background get scrapped and we get the Age of the Emperor Reborn on shape shifting Terra?

No, this will not happen

40k become a true Skirmish level game instead of the Mass-Battle it is?

Maybe, just look at the new Renegade game. It is possible that the whole game will be just about moving big models around and the Edition will be the basic Renegade game with special rules too speed up if played with 10 Knights per side


40k become a very simple rule set?
It is already