Why did the flyrants land on turn 2? Doesn't make sense to me at all. Staying in the air keeps them safe. You lost 3 because you landed them (1 died on your turn). You might have lost one in the air from the ABs, but there is no way you would have lost 3. Snap Shooting does matter to ABs. It will do 0.98 unsaved wounds to a flyrant if snap shooting. If using full BS
, it will do 1.47 unsaved wounds. Sure, you might have passed MSS
on one flyrant and killed a CCB
, but trading 2 Flyrants for a CCB
is a bad bargain by any measure especially when the CCB
can come back.
It was a calculated risk on my part. It's either offense or fly off the table and forego 1 turn of shooting to come back in next turn. At least those were the 2 options that I felt was best. So let me tell you why I decided to land.
1. I could have potentially taken out 2 of the annihilation barges (AB
's), as one of them only had 1HP remaining. That actually reduces a good chunk of his shooting.
Looks to me like you still could have gotten one and done about 2 hull points to the other.
2. It was a long charge for one of the bargelords. He had to charge about 10" or so. Even with re-rolls, the odds of him making that charge wasn't very good.
The odds of making a 10" charge with fleet are 36.7%. But the more problematic thing is that even if only 1 Bargelord made the charge, you are still losing a flyrant needlessly.
3. Egrubs Overwatch had the potential to kill a bargelord on the charge. Or it had the potential to take off 2HP's and then my flyrant - if he passes his MSS
test - can smash to finish off the bargelord. So 2/3 of the Overwatch results would have actually been favorable to my flyrants. Only 1/3 is bad. Again, the odds were actually on the Tyranid side in this battle.
Your stats are off. Your odds of killing an unwounded barge in overwatch are 19%. Statistically, you will do 1.66 Hull points to it. Your odds of doing exactly 2 points to it are 34.7%. Your odds of failing MSS
are just a tiny bit over 50%. Your Odds of killing a CCB
that has only 1 HP
left with a smash attack is only 59% so the odds of doing 2 wounds in overwatch, passing MSS
, and killing it with smash are about 10%. Your odds of doing 1 or less hull points to the CCB
on overwatch, passing MSS
, and then doing 3 wounds to the Overlord in CC
are about 2%. So add that all together. 19% chance you kill it in overwatch, 10% you smash it to death, and 2% you kill the lord in Close combat. There is about a 31% chance that it goes good for you. 1/3 good, 2/3 bad.
4. I needed to turn around anyways because of all the action was behind my flyrants. So either fly off the table or just go into glide mode to reposition yourself.
The other option is to keep them on the board but in the air. When flying parallel facing your opponents board edge, if everything gets behind you. Turn 90 degrees with each flyrant in the direction of the middle of the formation and fly the minimum distance.. It has the effect of reorienting you while keeping most flyrants roughly in the same place, and thus able to put your Flame Templates on those barges, while orienting you to fly towards either deployment zone. It isn't ideal, but is probably the best your could do in this situation, and is a common 2nd round move for me running 3 flyrants if terrain or opponents aren't providing better opportunities.