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 Zweischneid wrote:


Lots of interesting lessions there....

1994 saw the release of the Planescape campaign setting.[9]

By 1995, TSR had fallen behind both Games Workshop and Wizards of the Coast in sales volume.[20] Seeing the profits being generated by Wizards of the Coast with their collectible card game Magic: The Gathering, TSR attempted to enter this market in 1995 in a novel way with Dragon Dice. Similar to collectible card games, each player started with a random assortment of basic dice, and could improve their assortment by purchasing booster packs of more powerful dice. In addition to this initiative, TSR also decided to publish twelve hardcover novels in 1996, despite a previous history of publishing only one or two hardcover novels each year.[20]

the twelve hardcover novels did not sell as well as expected.

Despite total sales of $40 million, TSR ended 1996 with few cash reserves. When Random House returned an unexpectedly high percentage the year's inventory of unsold novels and sets of Dragon Dice for a fee of several million dollars, TSR found itself in a cash crunch. With no cash, TSR was unable to pay their printing and shipping bills, and the logistics company that handled TSR's pre-press, printing, warehousing and shipping refused to do any more work.

Wouldn't be trying that with codex's would they. Cus that'll work better than novels. Won't it???

 loki old fart wrote:

Wouldn't be trying that with codex's would they. Cus that'll work better than novels. Won't it???

Of course. Could be a factor. Could GW's sped up 2013 release schedule be to blame? Did "GW-collectors" stop buying "ever Codex"? Should GW go back to the old "2 Codex a year" speed?

Maybe GW slowing it down again with Orks is a sign of them putting the breaks on?

It is very clear that hobby boardgames have been growing strongly for some years. You don't need market figures to see that, it is obvious from the loads more games that are in shops, the expansion of events like "London On Board" and the number of newspaper articles on the topic.

IDK about miniature wargames except from a personal, anecdotal viewpoint.

 Zweischneid wrote:

 Kilkrazy wrote:
If you look at the numbers, GW were as profitable if not more so in 2012-2013 than at any time in the past 10 years.

It has been achieved by efficiency savings and increasing prices.

That is why the Dec 2013 report was a shock, because it may indicate that GW have cut too far or increased prices too much.

Yes, it may indicate that

However not: It must indicate that.

Crucial difference.

And the "market grows by double digit" stuff has been misquoted for ages. The "Tabletop games" market grew strongly, led by MtG, a strong demand for board games and surprise hits like the My Little Pony CCG.

Miniature games (as sub-market I suppose) have been shrinking (despite X-Wing even). Of course, GW's drop alone might account for much of that, but I don't think it is a coincidence that ... say ... Privateer is branching into Board Games (e.g. Level 7 stuff), etc....

The miniature games market might not be as hot as people think it is.

PP has been putting out board games for a few years now. They have a whole series of Bodger games. Grind. and just recently added the Level 7 stuff as well as the Warmachine/Hordes CCG. They even have a really good RPG out there.

And let us not forget the incredibly successful kickstarter to get the video game off the drawing board and into reality (heck it was the featured game running at the NVidia booth at E3).

 Zweischneid wrote:

 MWHistorian wrote:

Citation needed on other tabletop games shrinking.

They are not. Other Tabletop games are growing strong, as said, with CCG (first and foremost MtG) and board games being the main sources of growth.

http://www.icv2.com/articles/news/27015.html

The secular changes in gaming that are fueling tabletop game play were intact through 2013, with strong sales in both new products and classics driving the growth. Sales were up 15% in 2012 (see "Fourth Consecutive Growth Year"), with strong momentum through 2013 [...], with bellwether Magic: The Gathering leading the way (see "'Magic' Up 30% in Q3").

[...]

The growth rate for Magic compares favorably to Hasbro’s peer brands in a couple of ways: 30% greatly exceeded the 6% overall growth in Hasbro’s game category, and the 19% overall growth in what Hasbro calls its "franchise brands," key company-owned brands including Magic, My Little Pony, Nerf, Transformers, and Play-Doh.

That is the stuff that keeps referred to when people say "GW is in a growing market", though it's clearly not the direct GW-competition that seem to be driving the trend.

So nothing about Wargaming there at all?

It's just not growing as fast as M:TG?

If Wargaming is shrinking, can you explain the explosion of Wargames companies and products on the market?

Edit: What evidence do you have that PP has expanded into board games because the wargames are struggling, rather than diversifying like most mature companies do?

 Zweischneid wrote:

 loki old fart wrote:

Wouldn't be trying that with codex's would they. Cus that'll work better than novels. Won't it???

Of course. Could be a factor. Could GW's sped up 2013 release schedule be to blame? Did "GW-collectors" stop buying "every Codex"? Should GW go back to the old "2 Codex a year" speed?

Maybe GW slowing it down again with Orks is a sign of them putting the breaks on?

Nah just trying to boost WD sales.

 darefsky wrote:


PP has been putting out board games for a few years now. They have a whole series of Bodger games. Grind. and just recently added the Level 7 stuff as well as the Warmachine/Hordes CCG. They even have a really good RPG out there.

And let us not forget the incredibly successful kickstarter to get the video game off the drawing board and into reality (heck it was the featured game running at the NVidia booth at E3).

And that is probably the smart thing to do (though I doubt that in nearly 15 years of company history, PP never had a half-year with declining sales).

GW's "all-eggs-in-one-basket" is clearly a major problem, precisely because its company finances are so dictated by the cycles of a single product-line.

So in a bizarre way, GW's problem might not be a lack of 40K-popularity, it might be too much 40k-popularity, which has sapped creativity from everything else (and in a smaller mirror, the Space Marine popularity, which swallowed first GW and, even more voraciously, swallowed FW more recently).

 Zweischneid wrote:

 darefsky wrote:


PP has been putting out board games for a few years now. They have a whole series of Bodger games. Grind. and just recently added the Level 7 stuff as well as the Warmachine/Hordes CCG. They even have a really good RPG out there.

And let us not forget the incredibly successful kickstarter to get the video game off the drawing board and into reality (heck it was the featured game running at the NVidia booth at E3).

And that is probably the smart thing to do (though I doubt that in nearly 15 years of company history, PP never had a half-year with declining sales).

GW's "all-eggs-in-one-basket" is clearly a major problem, precisely because its company finances are so dictated by the cycles of a single product-line.

So in a bizarre way, GW's problem might not be a lack of 40K-popularity, it might be too much 40k-popularity, which has sapped creativity from everything else (and in a smaller mirror, the Space Marine popularity, which swallowed first GW and, even more voraciously, swallowed FW more recently).

I think lack of diversity is most definitely an issue. It was almost like they ran WHFB into the ground, and then took silliness from it and slapped it onto 40K. Its like they let Michael Bey take over their blockbuster franchise after destroying another movie.

I'm sure PP has had bad quarters. I think they are still young and agile enough to make quick changes. Look at the transition from Mark1 to Mark2. It was needed and they had an open beta. Now they are on their forums all the time. they interact with gamer at conventions, broadcast finals games on twitch. Add to this that they support the fans with things like podcasts (so much so that PP staff have been on quite a few of the fancasts). and you see a pattern that is pretty distinctly the antithesis of how GW operates.

As to my thoughts on GW. I think they have reached the end of their life cycle just likes all business do. You start as a startup, achieve rapid growth. become stationary, and then the decline. Its all in how long it takes.

 Zweischneid wrote:

 Wayshuba wrote:


Then there are those of us who have been around the business block long enough to know when we are reading corporate double-speak, which is everything Kirby has been writing, to know when things are worse than they are becuase we have read it so, so many times before.

Then there are those of us who have been around the business block long enough to know that customers almost always give too much weight to their personal grievances as causal factors to the performance of a company.

Indeed, the tendency to favour your own personal bias in interpreting a correlation of two events is probably the most common error in both business and academia.

Many of us, myself, Wayshuba and Derek included, have seen fit to disclose our relevant experiences WRT what is informing our opinions and assessments.

Perhaps you'd be so kind as to provide similar information as to "being around the business block?"

Or is this going to be the same as when I asked you to outline one of the wonderful games you play where everything is fabulous, the narrative forging is epic and balance irrelevant? Ie a bunch of sidestepping and non answers.

 azreal13 wrote:

 Zweischneid wrote:

 Wayshuba wrote:


Then there are those of us who have been around the business block long enough to know when we are reading corporate double-speak, which is everything Kirby has been writing, to know when things are worse than they are becuase we have read it so, so many times before.

Then there are those of us who have been around the business block long enough to know that customers almost always give too much weight to their personal grievances as causal factors to the performance of a company.

Indeed, the tendency to favour your own personal bias in interpreting a correlation of two events is probably the most common error in both business and academia.

Many of us, myself, Wayshuba and Derek included, have seen fit to disclose our relevant experiences WRT what is informing our opinions and assessments.

Perhaps you'd be so kind as to provide similar information as to "being around the business block?"

Or is this going to be the same as when I asked you to outline one of the wonderful games you play where everything is fabulous, the narrative forging is epic and balance irrelevant? Ie a bunch of sidestepping and non answers.

That's not as bad as asking him for a solid, definite answer on how making the penitent engine less useless makes the game less fun.

 azreal13 wrote:


Many of us, myself, Wayshuba and Derek included, have seen fit to disclose our relevant experiences WRT what is informing our opinions and assessments.

Really? Must have missed those posts where you disclose your business credentials.

Got some links?

Search my posts.

Now..about yours?

 azreal13 wrote:
Search my posts.

Now..about yours?

Search my posts (hey, only 4/5ths of yours )

Ok...

I'll save you the time. I worked for YouGov for a while. I know how people misguide themselves consistently on how they think the world works. Never discard a possible cause (such as those given by Mr. Kirby), especially if it goes against your personal beliefs/experience/assumptions.

 Zweischneid wrote:

 azreal13 wrote:
Search my posts.

Now..about yours?

Search my posts (hey, only 4/5ths of yours )

Ok...

I'll save you the time. I worked for YouGov for a while. I know how people misguide themselves consistently on how they think the world works. Never discard a possible cause (such as those given by Mr. Kirby), especially if it goes against your personal beliefs/experience/assumptions.

So you were in prison then ??

Azrael.. This is clearly the same Zweischneid from pins of war.

http://pinsofwar.com/miniature-wargaming-sales-2012-2013/

He makes some very good points about the limitations of the data we do have. Saying that the gaming industry has double in the past 5 years needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt considering how few companies actually report numbers publicly. GW and Hasbro are about it.

 Zweischneid wrote:

 azreal13 wrote:
Search my posts.

Now..about yours?

Search my posts (hey, only 4/5ths of yours )

Ok...

I'll save you the time. I worked for YouGov for a while. I know how people misguide themselves consistently on how they think the world works. Never discard a possible cause (such as those given by Mr. Kirby), especially if it goes against your personal beliefs/experience/assumptions.

So, no actual experience of managing or running a business then?

So never actually been around the "business block?"

Not denying you your right to an opinion, but don't try and assert that you're any sort of authority of businesses or how to run them.

To save you time, I studied Business in college, worked as a senior manager in a multimillion pound turnover retail sales business (third largest in it's sector at one point) and was company director of my own company for a few years before latterly being forced to give up work due to chronic ill health two years ago.

So, not to turn this into a pissing contest, which was never my intent, but to paraphrase Martin O'Neil "the difference between fans and managers is fans have opinions, managers must make decisions"

I may be a fan now, but I've been a manager.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

dereksatkinson wrote:
Azrael.. This is clearly the same Zweischneid from pins of war.

http://pinsofwar.com/miniature-wargaming-sales-2012-2013/

He makes some very good points about the limitations of the data we do have. Saying that the gaming industry has double in the past 5 years needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt considering how few companies actually report numbers publicly. GW and Hasbro are about it.

Except we have Wayshuba posting in this thread, whose access to information is nowhere near as limited because of his profession, and he has been clear and unambiguous on what is happening as far as he is able.

Doubled in 5 years is an average of ~20% per year, which is absolutely in line with everything we do know, or that is rumoured.

 azreal13 wrote:
So, no actual experience of managing or running a business then?

So never actually been around the "business block?"
....
I may be a fan now, but I've been a manager.

Working as a "manager" doesn't mean you know what you are doing. Neither does running a business.

 azreal13 wrote:


So, no actual experience of managing or running a business then?

So never actually been around the "business block?"

Not denying you your right to an opinion, but don't try and assert that you're any sort of authority of businesses or how to run them.

I am not an authority on running a business.

But I am an authority on saying that assuming X, not Y causes Z, only because X would fit your worldview and Y was forwarded by a person you don't trust, is fraught with danger.

It is not dissimilar to how ... say ... a person identifying himself as a "businessmen" would be more inclined to believe a fact if told by another businessmen, but more likely reject the very same fact if told by... say... a politician or social worker, even if the fact is identical.

It's how humans work.

dereksatkinson wrote:

 azreal13 wrote:
So, no actual experience of managing or running a business then?

So never actually been around the "business block?"
....
I may be a fan now, but I've been a manager.

Working as a "manager" doesn't mean you know what you are doing. Neither does running a business.

Neither does being a trader, as you've repeatedly demonstrated.

What it does do is demonstrate I've got first hand, real world experience of the topic at hand, that I have a working knowledge of how businesses operate in a day to day basis.

Besides, I make no claims to competence, merely to relevant knowledge and experience. I'm content in my level of ability, I feel no obligation to argue the toss with you.

Nice to seem my assertion that just because you've got certificates doesn't make you any good from months ago has stayed with you though.

 azreal13 wrote:
Except we have Wayshuba posting in this thread, whose access to information is nowhere near as limited because of his profession, and he has been clear and unambiguous on what is happening as far as he is able.

Doubled in 5 years is an average of ~20% per year, which is absolutely in line with everything we do know, or that is rumoured.

Numbers which can't be projected across the entire industry.

 azreal13 wrote:
I'm content in my level of ability,

That's what every human thinks. That's the problem, if you make that the basis of what you think caused Z.

 Baragash wrote:

 Zweischneid wrote:
Again, your exact quote was...

 H.B.M.C. wrote:
I dunno. I still think that the Cash-Grab Edition of 40K will bring them above the line.

And that is factually wrong. Nothing can bring "them above the line" if they aren't under it to start with.

Wait, you're still telling someone they're factually wrong about something you're factually wrong about?

Zwei argues for the sheer sake of it. Let him exercise his right to be wrong and just smile and nod.

 Zweischneid wrote:

 azreal13 wrote:


So, no actual experience of managing or running a business then?

So never actually been around the "business block?"

Not denying you your right to an opinion, but don't try and assert that you're any sort of authority of businesses or how to run them.

I am not an authority on running a business.

But I am an authority on saying that assuming X, not Y causes Z, only because X would fit your worldview and Y was forwarded by a person you don't trust, is fraught with danger.

It is not dissimilar to how ... say ... a person identifying himself as a "businessmen" would be more inclined to believe a fact if told by another businessmen, but more likely reject the very same fact if told by... say... a politician or social worker, even if the fact is identical.

It's how humans work.

No, it's how some humans work.

Personally, I have always borne in mind something my grandfather said to me (genuinely)
"even the stupidest, most ignorant person knows something you don't."

Frankly, Zwei, it's the only reason you're not on ignore.


Automatically Appended Next Post:

 Zweischneid wrote:

 azreal13 wrote:
I'm content in my level of ability,

That's what every human thinks. That's the problem, if you make that the basis of what you think caused Z.

Really?

You think every person is completely happy with their ability in every aspect of their life, never strives to improve and lacks the self awareness necessary to identify things they're not good at and consequently make allowances?

Sheesh.

 azreal13 wrote:

Really?

You think every person is completely happy with their ability in every aspect of their life, never strives to improve and lacks the self awareness necessary to identify things they're not good at and consequently make allowances?

Sheesh.

Every person filters what they perceive in the world through the lens of their experience. Sure, many, even most people will try to improve.

Still, if confronted with reality, people will "accept" or "reject" facts based on pre-conceptions and biases, not least those they believe themselves to be experts in.

I am pretty sure Mr. Tom Kirby is as convinced of his business-smarts and of his "I know how business works" as you are. Both of you make the same mistake of thinking your expertise/experience is a viable criteria for eliminating (or accepting) a given cause X as the basis of an observed event/trend/development Y, without rigorously testing (and often not even seriously considering) alternative causes and/or counterfactuals.

Good lord! You never stop do you?

He's live footage of this argument-


I predict 10 more pages of this cyclical argument.

 Grimtuff wrote:
Good lord! You never stop do you?

He's live footage of this argument-

Spoiler:

I predict 10 more pages of this cyclical argument.

Nah, you're ok, I know how Zwei plays his game, and I only partake when the mood take me.

I'm bored now.

So because a doctor might be wrong on your diagnosis, a layman's opinion with no medical background whatsoever holds just as much water?

I've seen lots of evidence suggesting that GW is doing "not good" but no evidence to suggest that they're doing good. Maintaining seems to be the best scenario that I've understood from this thread.

Once again, I'm no expert and I'm trying to understand this.

 MWHistorian wrote:
I've seen lots of evidence suggesting that GW is doing "not good" but no evidence to suggest that they're doing good. Maintaining seems to be the best scenario that I've understood from this thread.

Once again, I'm no expert and I'm trying to understand this.

No doubt there.

The question isn't if GW is doing "good" or "bad".

The question is why GW is doing "bad" and what they need to change to get back on track.

- Are they part of a decline in the market, or bucking the trend in a growing market?
- How much of the blame is in the prices? If at all?
- How much of the blame are in the game-rules? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in their restructuring of their retail chain? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in their odd social-media/marketing strategy? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in stronger/more numerous competition? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in the demographic shifts among their customers? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in changing aesthetic tastes and pop-culture trends? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in the "natural" product cycle of their "big" product? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in the "secrecy" + "surprise reveal" strategy? If at all?
- How much of the blame is in the faster release-schedule? If at all?
- Etc....
- Etc...
- Etc...

Which factors are working against GW? Which of the above factors possible work for GW, just not enough to stop the slide?

Most accounts in this thread have displayed a very reductionist, "single-cause" (or at best dual-cause") theory of why GW is doing bad, heavily biased by any given posters personal pet-peeve against GW as a customer.

A smart business man/analyst would never discard any possible reason out of hand (and always assume that there are even more possible, yet unknown reasons), rather than jumping to a simplistic conclusion that only serves to pamper his ego as "empowered consumer" "who knew all along what went wrong".

Are you even reading the same thread?

Nobody regularly contributing is blaming a single cause hypothesis, the only person doing that appears to be Mr T Kirby.