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Playing with it, to high, against it, to low XD

Want me to run the numbers on how many fusion suits it would take to take out the last two wounds of a Riptide who hurt itself 3 times over the course of a game?

You know what? Lets.

You don't care about melta range anymore so you can drop the suit with a greater error margin- say 6" to make sure all scatter results save mishaps would keep you in range and most would still be in RF range. That's still 1/3 chance of a direct hit and a 1/12 chance of scattering 3" or less. If you scatter 4-5" you still won't ever mishap but there's a small chance you'll scatter directly away out of RF range- 4-5 on a 2d6 is a 7/36 chance, and let's say 1/6 of these would be out of RF. 6-12" inches of scatter, a 26/36 chance, is the "danger zone"- lets say 1/3 of these would mishap and of the remainder only half would be in RF range.

Grand total: 16% chance of mishap, 65.7% chance of rapid fire and 18.3% chance of single shot.

1/2 to hit, 5/6 to wound, 2/3 to pass invul- Totals in 41.6% chance of getting a wound in. You need to do that twice though, so that's actually 17.3% for a pair of suits to take the last two wounds off (and if they arrive so late in the game the Riptide managed to take 3 wounds off of itself by that time then they've already failed by giving it free reign anyhow).

The chance of 5 suits to take out an unwounded Riptide? A hilarious 1.25%, while they'll nuke a Barge roughly 72.6% of the time.


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MordorMiniatures wrote:
Playing with it, to high, against it, to low XD

Yea, you missed here galorian
The suits are dedicated anti-tank, and not in any form anti-MC. totally different setups, totally different uses, and totally different stat-lines. they are horrid against any and all MCs.
Do the math with actual anti-MC unit if you want a fair comparison, not a super-specialized anti-tank unit. and as riptides cost twice as much, the anti-MC units should also cost twice as much.

Though it does seem that I somehow calculated the jink effect in twice with the suits. odd. so yea, suits get it done (as in killing it outright) with "mere" 5 suits I got 72.6% to take out, either outright or severely cripple a single barge. its still nearly three times the cost of dedicated and specialized units for a "good chance" of getting the job done.

 BoomWolf wrote:
Yea, you missed here galorian
The suits are dedicated anti-tank, and not in any form anti-MC. totally different setups, totally different uses, and totally different stat-lines. they are horrid against any and all MCs.
Do the math with actual anti-MC unit if you want a fair comparison, not a super-specialized anti-tank unit. and as riptides cost twice as much, the anti-MC units should also cost twice as much.

Though it does seem that I somehow calculated the jink effect in twice with the suits. odd. so yea, suits get it done (as in killing it outright) with "mere" 5 suits I got 72.6% to take out, either outright or severely cripple a single barge. its still nearly three times the cost of dedicated and specialized units for a "good chance" of getting the job done.

A single suit cripples the Barge with a nearly 1/3 chance, is cheaper than the Barge by a fair margin and is for all practical intents and purposes unstoppable for the opposing player, who only gets a say in the matter after the fact.

You have to remember that in statistics there is no such thing as 100%, the more models you put to the task the less of a return you get for your investment- a single suit gets a pen to stick on a 30.4% chance, two would have a 51.6% chance, three would get you 66.3%, four would get you 76.5%, five would bump it up to 83.7%, six would only edge that up to 88.6%, seven get you up to 92.1%, eight manage a staggering leap of 2.4% to 94.5%, etc...

By far the most likely outcome of a penetration would be the Barge exploding or being rendered permanently useless, but even in the off chance that doesn't happen it's left as an AV11 open topped skimmer with 2 hp out in the open against an army that spams S5 shooting, a good deal of it has both ignores cover and ignores line of sight and just about all of it has superior range, not to mention the fair quantities of S6-8 shooting Tau armies toss around like its going out of style (though it obviously isn't ).

As for the fusion suit being a sub optimal option at hunting Riptides... Wut? Maybe where you're standing 53 points for two S8 AP1 shots that deepstrike on a T4 Sv3+ two wound JSJ platform is "not in any form anti-MC", but where I'm standing that's a crazy good deal for monster hunting.

I'd like to take a step back and point out that Annihilation Barges easily are among the top 10 heavy support units in the game already, trying to prove that a Riptide isn't undercosted by comparing it to another stellar unit is a bit counterproductive.

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:
I'd like to take a step back and point out that Annihilation Barges easily are among the top 10 heavy support units in the game already, trying to prove that a Riptide isn't undercosted by comparing it to another stellar unit is a bit counterproductive.

The fact they're failing is also quite telling- the main reason I went for the Barge was the fact they had previously stated it was undercosted, so even proving the Riptide is "merely" about as effective per point would've sufficed.

Math, however, has something else in mind it seems, as it looks to be dead set on proving the Riptide to be even more point efficient than the Barge, even when compared in its sub-optimal "naked" build...

Galorian, you've proved no such thing.

You still haven't posted the AV and AA values which are where the Annihilation barges shine. And don't forget to factor in how few Riptides actually have VTs. Barges are also immune to S6 and below firepower. Snap Shots really doesn't affect them, neither does the enemy having Cover Saves.

And please, do use the IA Riptide for AV and AA. It's a poor platform for both.

The Annihilation barge is undercosted because it threatens every target in the game short of AV 14 well. It is also immune to S6 and below. And three of them cost 5 Pts more than a dedicated AA Riptide and are vastly superior at that task. HBC VT Stim ECPA Riptide runs 265. Two Barges are better vs nearly ever target in the game, you've proved this. And they are extremely Durable, more so vs S7 and below. S6-7 Spam is the best and most popular AT firepower in the game. Serpents, Missilesides, Psybacks, Autocannons, Psycannons, Assault Cannons, etc. the Meta needs to prepare to Demech mid AV targets, the Barge is better at it.

And how many armies are putting S10 AP1 ranged attacks on the table? How many are putting multiple shots down range? None, no competitive list is doing that as there is no cost effective method of doing it. Lists of armies are putting S6-7 down range. S10 AP2 Distort is far more common and vastly more dangerous for a Riptide.

These are the reasons the Annihilation barge is undercosted. If anything, we've proved the Riptide is more appropriately costed then Annihilation barges.


To all those Strawman argues, I've already stated the IA upgrade is undercosted, and even that underperforms compared to Annihilation barges vs most targets in the game. All we've proven is that the Riptide is more appropriately costed than Annihilation Barges. Now, the Riptide may be slightly undercosted or over durable with the IA and possibly stock, but not my the margins proposed here.

The HBC is appropriately costed and solid vs most target, capable of handling AA but is prone to self destruction. Benefits from support.

The IA Riptide is a phenomenal anti Heavy Infantry and Infantry killer, especially with support. It's slightly undercosted due to it's lack of reliance on its Nova Reactor resulting in increased durability .

The Annihilation Barge is great against all targets including AAA duty requiring no support. It's also immune or highly resistant to more types of firepower. It is definitely undercosted.

All we have managed to show is that the HBC Riptide is less capable than an equal amount of Annihilation Barges and is more appropriately costed.

You are a smart guy, but are hiding the reality of the situation behind cherry picked arguments supported by walls of math.

Be careful of statistics, it's easy to be mislead...

Except you neglected the fact NOVA fails 1/3 of the time for the ripple fire effects as well as the overcharge (otherwise your mention of using the overcarch when its 50% better then ripple makes no sense, but suffer the same side effects of 2/3 to fail to work and wound the tide) and you assume the barge will jinx non-stop does the HBCtide manage to catch up in firepower, something we both know it just not correct. the need to jink only comes up when a genuine threat comes up.

And the defensive value presented here is against the most single-minded anti-tank unit in the entire game, you literally CANT find a unit in the game more aimed at the sole purpose of killing tanks.
If you want a real comparison of defense, you need to make a table like you made for the "glances per shot on barge" except "wounds per shot on riptide", and remember that while the tide has 5 wounds to the barge's 3, it has double the cost-so anything in similar efficiency is in effect better at hurting tides then it is against barges. and I'd bet all the more common S7-8 guns will fall under this category, especially AP1-2 guns.
(no, fusion won't. because they are MELTA. bonus rules changes things, these really are anti-tank centered. and the fusion suits really ARE useless at MC hunters, even plasma suits who are practically unused at superior due to the fact against T6 a S6AP2 double tap beats a single S8AP1 shot. and many units put he plasma suits to shame there, for example pretty much anything viable that has grav or poison.)

 Zagman wrote:

PrinceRaven wrote:Why is everyone calculating wounds taken by the Riptide as if Tau players use their Nova reactor every single turn? In my experience they only use it for 4 turns maximum, factor in Feel No Pain and the Riptide is doing a lot less damage to itself than you think it is.

PrinceRaven wrote:Why is everyone calculating wounds taken by the Riptide as if Tau players use their Nova reactor every single turn? In my experience they only use it for 4 turns maximum, factor in Feel No Pain and the Riptide is doing a lot less damage to itself than you think it is.

Galorian, you've proved no such thing.

You still haven't posted the AV and AA values which are where the Annihilation barges shine. And don't forget to factor in how few Riptides actually have VTs. Barges are also immune to S6 and below firepower. Snap Shots really doesn't affect them, neither does the enemy having Cover Saves.

And please, do use the IA Riptide for AV and AA. It's a poor platform for both.

The Annihilation barge is undercosted because it threatens every target in the game short of AV 14 well. It is also immune to S6 and below. And three of them cost 5 Pts more than a dedicated AA Riptide and are vastly superior at that task. HBC VT Stim ECPA Riptide runs 265. Two Barges are better vs nearly ever target in the game, you've proved this. And they are extremely Durable, more so vs S7 and below. S6-7 Spam is the best and most popular AT firepower in the game. Serpents, Missilesides, Psybacks, Autocannons, Psycannons, Assault Cannons, etc. the Meta needs to prepare to Demech mid AV targets, the Barge is better at it.

And how many armies are putting S10 AP1 ranged attacks on the table? How many are putting multiple shots down range? None, no competitive list is doing that as there is no cost effective method of doing it. Lists of armies are putting S6-7 down range. S10 AP2 Distort is far more common and vastly more dangerous for a Riptide.

These are the reasons the Annihilation barge is undercosted. If anything, we've proved the Riptide is more appropriately costed then Annihilation barges.


To all those Strawman argues, I've already stated the IA upgrade is undercosted, and even that underperforms compared to Annihilation barges vs most targets in the game. All we've proven is that the Riptide is more appropriately costed than Annihilation Barges. Now, the Riptide may be slightly undercosted or over durable with the IA and possibly stock, but not my the margins proposed here.

The HBC is appropriately costed and solid vs most target, capable of handling AA but is prone to self destruction. Benefits from support.

The IA Riptide is a phenomenal anti Heavy Infantry and Infantry killer, especially with support. It's slightly undercosted due to it's lack of reliance on its Nova Reactor resulting in increased durability .

The Annihilation Barge is great against all targets including AAA duty requiring no support. It's also immune or highly resistant to more types of firepower. It is definitely undercosted.

All we have managed to show is that the HBC Riptide is less capable than an equal amount of Annihilation Barges and is more appropriately costed.

You are a smart guy, but are hiding the reality of the situation behind cherry picked arguments supported by walls of math.

Be careful of statistics, it's easy to be mislead...

Despite having a massive dislike of the Riptide's rules I have to say I'm convinced by what you're saying here. Argued well, clearly and logically, have an exalt.

 BoomWolf wrote:
Except you neglected the fact NOVA fails 1/3 of the time for the ripple fire effects as well as the overcharge (otherwise your mention of using the overcarch when its 50% better then ripple makes no sense, but suffer the same side effects of 2/3 to fail to work and wound the tide) and you assume the barge will jinx non-stop does the HBCtide manage to catch up in firepower, something we both know it just not correct. the need to jink only comes up when a genuine threat comes up.

Are you suffering from selective amnesia? I stated explicitly that I factored in the 1/3 chance of failing a nova charge test into the firepower figures. Also, "need to jink only comes up" most game turns since if your opponent is halfway competent he'll have anti-tank weapons in the game and you have to declare if you jink when he declares he's shooting at you, not after you see if his shots are effective. Furthermore the need to actually move around the battlefield with that underwhelming 24" range kinda demands you snap fire both weapons half the time anyway, and the rest of the time you're going to be moving at combat speed and snap firing one of them.

 BoomWolf wrote:
And the defensive value presented here is against the most single-minded anti-tank unit in the entire game, you literally CANT find a unit in the game more aimed at the sole purpose of killing tanks.
If you want a real comparison of defense, you need to make a table like you made for the "glances per shot on barge" except "wounds per shot on riptide", and remember that while the tide has 5 wounds to the barge's 3, it has double the cost-so anything in similar efficiency is in effect better at hurting tides then it is against barges. and I'd bet all the more common S7-8 guns will fall under this category, especially AP1-2 guns.
(no, fusion won't. because they are MELTA. bonus rules changes things, these really are anti-tank centered. and the fusion suits really ARE useless at MC hunters, even plasma suits who are practically unused at superior due to the fact against T6 a S6AP2 double tap beats a single S8AP1 shot. and many units put he plasma suits to shame there, for example pretty much anything viable that has grav or poison.)

S8 AP1 Rapid Fire at 53pts is a good MC killer, particularly against a Sv2+ one like the Riptide.

If I find the time I'll run some more mathhammering tomorrow, but having already wasted WAAAAAAY more time on this than I originally planned on with a test this Wednesday I doubt I will.

^what the heck is S8 AP1 rapid fire? Fusion blaster is assault 1...

Fusions are 18" Assault 1 Melta. Metlas do not have rapid fire. A full crisis squad can only ever put out 6 fusion shots, 8 if you add a commander.

I WISH they were rapid fire. Damn they'd be nasty then lol. "Oh im within 9" so i get double shots and also 2D6 armor pen..byebye vehicle!" lol

My bad, I'm not THAT familiar with the Tau codex, should've double checked.

Going over some of it now it seems to me a single suit can take 3 of them for 15pts a pop though. Did I miss anything that would make that impossible?


Automatically Appended Next Post:
Funny story- compare a Riptide and a Barge each taking 6 S6 Rending hits:

The Riptide will take an average 1 wound, the Barge (assuming it doesn't jinks, since it's S6 Rending, which shouldn't be all that scary for an AV13 vehicle) will lose an average 1 HP, out of which 1/3 is a glance and 2/3 is a pen.

2/3 to pen times (1/3 to explode + 1/6 to immobilize + 1/12 to destroy the TD) = 7/18 to take the Barge out of the game right there.

S7 without AP2 or better will only wound a Riptide 1/9 of the times while it takes off a HP 1/6 of the times.

So shooting at a Barge a non Jinking Barge would score an average 8/9 glances to a Nova charge Riptide's average 1/3 to glance 2/3 to pen (which includes 7/18 to mission kill), and if the Barge did jink or move at cruising its average drops to 11/18. Sure, the Riptide costs double, but I'd say an average 1hp with a 38.9% mission kill rate beats a 16/9 hp average with a 0% mission kill rate.

The fact you can only shoot two guns with the suit is an issue with having 3 fusion blasters.

On other note-rending, equal value against MCs and tanks, its not specialized one way or another. S7 without AP2 is not the most effective weapon to aim at tides due to armor, you might as well shoot HB on a terminator. (same chance per shot to get anything done) you need a way PAST the armor to really hammer them. 1/3 saved is way worse then 5/6 saved.

As for the riptide's own survival, here is a funny fact:
We are working under the assumption of NOVA every turn so he will pump out decent firepower, so the riptide has 3 effective wounds, not 5. it will deal 2 average to himself to NOVA alone.
And considering we use overcharge fire every time (we need it to get the barge right? the SMS is useless here. the SMS is far weaker against MOST targets) then its 1.33 EXTRA self wounds per game. (12 gets hot shots, 1/36 chance to get a 1 hit 1 save, meaning every 3 turns of working overcharge its a self-wound, you manage to overcharge 2/3 times so its a self wound every 4.5 turns for gets hot, with 6 average game turns.)
So the nakedtide, when overcharging every single turn, has in effect just 1.66 wounds.
Still seems unkilable? because he literally kills most of his own life by itself when pumping out his full potential. 3.33 wounds per game on average when non-stop overcharge is needed, with the HBC its more often then not.

That 16/9 hp you calculated is 1.777 wounds, slightly more then enough to kill the riptide *in effect* on average, as if he keeps shooting to maximum capacity, he will kill himself already at this point. either you took a major hit to your main gun (as we called "mission kill") or kill yourself.
If you had two rounds of shooting because you survived, or lets say a round and a half, (to count for the chance to kill the shooter) so we'll use 24/9 as the figure, 2.666 wounds on average, at this point-more then half the riptide is gone, he has 2.33 wounds left, 1 less then the self-inflicted average per game. about the same as the self-inflicted by turn 4.
If you got a full two-turn shooting rather then 1.5 then on average he will take 3.555 wounds (32/9) at the time, and that means the nova alone kills him, or the "gets hot" alone. in fact by turn 2-3 he already took the last 1.44444 wounds of himself. (turn 2 average self-inflicted 1.111, turn 3 is 1.666)

HBC kills the riptide, he is NOT hard to kill when wielding one. not even something special. T6 SV2+5++ is a though nut, but just 1.66 wounds average is enough damage to make the HBC either tone down his attack, or kill itsself. to be practical, once you landed 2 wounds on your own-its "effectively" down.
That's why the HBC is fair. not because its full potential is not doing enough damage or that he can't tank shots when he chooses to, but because if you want to do meaningful damage, you have to keep on NOVAing, so you quickly eat your own health.
3.333 wounds per game, its two-thirds of the riptide's own health there. just in pure self-damage.

 Galorian wrote:
Want me to run the numbers on how many fusion suits it would take to take out the last two wounds of a Riptide who hurt itself 3 times over the course of a game?

You know what? Lets.

You don't care about melta range anymore so you can drop the suit with a greater error margin- say 6" to make sure all scatter results save mishaps would keep you in range and most would still be in RF range. That's still 1/3 chance of a direct hit and a 1/12 chance of scattering 3" or less. If you scatter 4-5" you still won't ever mishap but there's a small chance you'll scatter directly away out of RF range- 4-5 on a 2d6 is a 7/36 chance, and let's say 1/6 of these would be out of RF. 6-12" inches of scatter, a 26/36 chance, is the "danger zone"- lets say 1/3 of these would mishap and of the remainder only half would be in RF range.

Grand total: 16% chance of mishap, 65.7% chance of rapid fire and 18.3% chance of single shot.

1/2 to hit, 5/6 to wound, 2/3 to pass invul- Totals in 41.6% chance of getting a wound in. You need to do that twice though, so that's actually 17.3% for a pair of suits to take the last two wounds off (and if they arrive so late in the game the Riptide managed to take 3 wounds off of itself by that time then they've already failed by giving it free reign anyhow).

The chance of 5 suits to take out an unwounded Riptide? A hilarious 1.25%, while they'll nuke a Barge roughly 72.6% of the time.

You used awful math here. Don't ever use percentages when working with fixed amounts. Also your argument is apples to oranges when it compares riptides to ghost arks.

Now then: Who the feth cares what 5 fusion suits does? who fields 5 fusion suits? I run 3 plasma suits and 3 fusion suits in a farsight bomb, and my list is considered out there.

So, how about we look at a real life example of anti-monster shooting.

3 Plasma suits put out 12 S6AP2 shots. Their target is T6 with a 5++5+++. I have re-rolls to hit and wound. My Chance of hitting, wounding and getting through both saves is equal to 0.312. I have a mean of 3.75 wounds - I'll do from 2.14 to 5.352 wounds on average.

Riptides cost 225 points average with FNP. they take 13 ap1/2 wounds to bring down. Bring more AP1/2.

The only people who can really complain about riptides are Space Marines, Nids and Orks. Those three armies fail to pump out AP1/2 en masse.

SM have both plasma and grav as options though.
And grav on centurions is like "feth you very much" with what they pump out (80 points each, yes. but 5 BS4 shots that wound on 2 reroll and no armor each.)

Nids...harder time now with FMC meganerf. but they got psyker powers to disable/kill it.

Orks are getting a new codex like in two weeks, no point discussing them.

BoomWolf wrote:The fact you can only shoot two guns with the suit is an issue with having 3 fusion blasters.

On other note-rending, equal value against MCs and tanks, its not specialized one way or another. S7 without AP2 is not the most effective weapon to aim at tides due to armor, you might as well shoot HB on a terminator. (same chance per shot to get anything done) you need a way PAST the armor to really hammer them. 1/3 saved is way worse then 5/6 saved.

As for the riptide's own survival, here is a funny fact:
We are working under the assumption of NOVA every turn so he will pump out decent firepower, so the riptide has 3 effective wounds, not 5. it will deal 2 average to himself to NOVA alone.
And considering we use overcharge fire every time (we need it to get the barge right? the SMS is useless here. the SMS is far weaker against MOST targets) then its 1.33 EXTRA self wounds per game. (12 gets hot shots, 1/36 chance to get a 1 hit 1 save, meaning every 3 turns of working overcharge its a self-wound, you manage to overcharge 2/3 times so its a self wound every 4.5 turns for gets hot, with 6 average game turns.)
So the nakedtide, when overcharging every single turn, has in effect just 1.66 wounds.
Still seems unkilable? because he literally kills most of his own life by itself when pumping out his full potential. 3.33 wounds per game on average when non-stop overcharge is needed, with the HBC its more often then not.

That 16/9 hp you calculated is 1.777 wounds, slightly more then enough to kill the riptide *in effect* on average, as if he keeps shooting to maximum capacity, he will kill himself already at this point. either you took a major hit to your main gun (as we called "mission kill") or kill yourself.
If you had two rounds of shooting because you survived, or lets say a round and a half, (to count for the chance to kill the shooter) so we'll use 24/9 as the figure, 2.666 wounds on average, at this point-more then half the riptide is gone, he has 2.33 wounds left, 1 less then the self-inflicted average per game. about the same as the self-inflicted by turn 4.
If you got a full two-turn shooting rather then 1.5 then on average he will take 3.555 wounds (32/9) at the time, and that means the nova alone kills him, or the "gets hot" alone. in fact by turn 2-3 he already took the last 1.44444 wounds of himself. (turn 2 average self-inflicted 1.111, turn 3 is 1.666)

HBC kills the riptide, he is NOT hard to kill when wielding one. not even something special. T6 SV2+5++ is a though nut, but just 1.66 wounds average is enough damage to make the HBC either tone down his attack, or kill itsself. to be practical, once you landed 2 wounds on your own-its "effectively" down.
That's why the HBC is fair. not because its full potential is not doing enough damage or that he can't tank shots when he chooses to, but because if you want to do meaningful damage, you have to keep on NOVAing, so you quickly eat your own health.
3.333 wounds per game, its two-thirds of the riptide's own health there. just in pure self-damage.

16/9 is for two Barges to get equal cost in, and calculating the number of hull points they'd take off of AV13 (which I then compared to the Riptide's average at same), and for another thing 1.777 is far short of the 3 you'd need to get the Riptide to off itself in 6 turns of Nova usage anyway, making your argument doubly erroneous. As for the S6 Rending calc, I actually did take the chance to fail to rend into account (duh)- S6 Rending is objectively better at damaging AV13 than it is at wounding T6 Sv2+/5++, as on average it causes an equal number of wounds/HP while also having a 2/3 chance of penetrating if it took off a hull point compared to no equivalent extra damage potential against a MC.

The really funny part is the fact all this math assumes you're trying to blow up the Barge the moment you have it in range yet the all the calculations for the Riptide assume you'll give it 6 turns to kill itself with the Nova reactor and just try to shoot down the remaining wounds, which is a patently absurd comparison.

I've had my Barges blow up on me for first blood in the first shooting phase before they even got to move, sometimes by the very first shot of the game. Tell me, how likely do you reckon the Riptide is to die on turn 1? How many units in the game even have a not statistically insignificant potential to kill a Riptide in the first shooting phase? Hell, how many armies do you reckon have a decent shot at taking one down on turn 1?

Scipio Africanus wrote:You used awful math here. Don't ever use percentages when working with fixed amounts. Also your argument is apples to oranges when it compares riptides to ghost arks.

Now then: Who the feth cares what 5 fusion suits does? who fields 5 fusion suits? I run 3 plasma suits and 3 fusion suits in a farsight bomb, and my list is considered out there.

So, how about we look at a real life example of anti-monster shooting.

3 Plasma suits put out 12 S6AP2 shots. Their target is T6 with a 5++5+++. I have re-rolls to hit and wound. My Chance of hitting, wounding and getting through both saves is equal to 0.312. I have a mean of 3.75 wounds - I'll do from 2.14 to 5.352 wounds on average.

Riptides cost 225 points average with FNP. they take 13 ap1/2 wounds to bring down. Bring more AP1/2.

The only people who can really complain about riptides are Space Marines, Nids and Orks. Those three armies fail to pump out AP1/2 en masse.

I used percentages because I calculated the statistical probability of getting the result- rolling to scatter gives you a 1/3 chance of hitting and a 2/3 chance of scattering 2d6. A roll of 2d6 results in 36 possible combinations, counting how many of them achieve a desired result and dividing by 36 gives you the probability of getting said result on a roll of 2d6, which you then multiply by the probability of having to roll the 2d6 in the first place to get the overall probability of getting said result.

Moreover, I used "X fusion suits" to demonstrate how you get diminishing returns on trying to score a mission killing hit by adding more suits, as Boomwolf didn't seem to realize how badly this can skew the apparent results. Afterwards as an aside I calculated their odds of managing to get all 5 wounds on a Riptide in a single shooting phase, though apparently I've been operating under some wrong assumptions as to the firepower of the suits (incidentally this also changes their odds of curbstomping the Barge).

Also, 3 Plasma suits put out 12 S7 AP2 shots per turn? HOLY CRAP. Somehow this doesn't make me any more sympathetic to the "plight" of the Tau codex in its struggles to prove it's not stuffed full of undepriced options...

At BS4 S8 AP1/2 you'd need and average of 20.25 shots fired to take down 5 T6 Sv2+/5++/5+++ wounds. My codex' most efficient source of such are Destructeks, who are single shot and cost 35pts a pop (not factoring in various taxes). To have a marginally above average chance of killing such a Riptide with a single shooting phase I'd need 21 of them, which totals at a hilarious 735pts (not counting the 4 Overlords and 4 minimal squads of warriors I'd need to field that many in a dual CAD battleforged list, adding another 620pts, and I'm ignoring the fact I won't be able to fit the 21st one into 4 courts). Incidentally, if we split those 21 shots into 7 groupings of 3 and turned each such on a jinking Barge (say my opponent really loves spamming them, for ease of calculation, as I've already done the math for 3 shots in a row), each such grouping would have a 10.3% chance of mission killing a Barge, meaning they'd have a 53.3% chance of mission killing at least 1 and a 15.6% chance of mission killing at least 2 (of course if all they faced was 2-3 Barges their odds of mission killing or outright killing all of them would be much higher due to stacking HP damage which I did not take into account and the stacking probabilities of dropping the QS or destroying the underslung cannon to improve the odds of taking out the TD with subsequent shots, but calculating all that for groupings of 7-11 shots would be a monumental pain in the ass for which I don't have the time or will at the moment).

I could go for Deathmarks, another prominent MC hunting option in my codex. A D&D squad of 10 DM and 2 Despairteks, one with a Veil, would cost me 280pts. They'd mark the Riptide so all to-wound rolls are on a 2+, meaning the auto hitting templates would score an average 0.74 wounds in total, and the DMs would pile on another 1.98 wounds, for a total of 2.72 wounds on average. Two of these would have a better than even chance of killing a Riptide (assuming of course they deepstruk without error wholly within rapid fire range with both templates in range) for a "mere" 560pts.

I've already done the math of the Barge, which comes out as 0.76 wounds per turn at full BS and 0.49 wounds per turn when snapfiring. That was for a naked Riptide however and you seem to like the FNP one better, so the numbers would be, in fact, 0.51 and 0.33 respectively. To have a better than even chance of killing said Riptide within a single phase would take 10 of them at full BS, 900pts, and 16 if snapfiring, or 1,440pts.

I guess that means you can probably add Necrons to the list of armies that have no effective ranged option for killing a Riptide.

What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

 Galorian wrote:
What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

Space marines can grab grav-weapons and those scare me. Dark Eldar maybe through pure bloody minded "I don't care about your toughness" weight of poisoned shots (maybe not an effective option, but a workable option). That's the only two I am personally familiar enough with to weigh in on.

Skimmers get to Jink even if they haven't moved and even when Immobilized. Barges got that boost. Your anecdotal evidence is from 6th Ed when they were actually much more vulnerable and still undercosted then. They've gotten better. Plus, ancedotal evidence isn't great. I've lost Riptides to two Wave Serpents shooting in one turn. I've lost them to Distort in the first shot. Point being?


Necrons have S7 Tesla Spam, it kills Riptides just fine. S6 Tesla is as effective at killing a Riptide as Bolters are at killing Terminators. Plus, Necrons have Wraiths and CCB Lords, they eat Riptides for Breakfast and are easily fast enough to catch them.

Your math for the Annihilation Barge vs Riptide was off. 5.33 average S7 Tesla hits and 2 Average S6 Tesla Hits is .76 Wounds/Turn not including arcing damage on other units. It takes 2 Annihilation Barges 3.33 Turns to Kill a Riptide, assuming the Riptide chooses not to Nova at all. The Riptides Return fire is only 1HP/Turn with Quantum Shielding assuming a successful Nova every time. Damage gets better on following turns if QS was stripped. Either way, Annihilation Barges are good at killing Riptides just like every other target short of AV14.... and it isn't like the Necron won't have more TLTesla Destructions hitting the field with Nightscythes. And they will be cheap flyers... that don't kill their troops and can drop them off anywhere on the board.


I'm sorry if Necrons aren't getting any sympathy here, Tau took a major hit with the transition to 7th, especially the Riptide, and will likely drop from 2nd most dominating army to high middle of the pack while Necrons got a boost and were already 4th for tournament strength with one of the best Tournament builds out there. Only the O'vesaStar kept the Tau doing well at high levels, whereas Wraithwing TeslaCrons was a dominating army and got only better, and now has the CCB Lord.

I see Necrons dominating tournaments and commanding 2nd spot to Eldar, especially in any Dual CAD setup, because of 6xAnnihilation Barges.


Edar, SM, and Necron all have readily accessible ways of killing Riptides at range. Grav and Distort are the clear winners, though Serpents put enough wounds on them per turn to not matter either, .74 Wounds/Turn on average for Serpents without underslung Shurikens. DE Poison and Lance spam is terrifying. Tau can do it, though its an ugly slap fest unless Kroot Snipers are in play. Daemons don't do it with Range, they do it in CC. Tyranids do it with poisoned Gribblies so not at range.

 dementedwombat wrote:

 Galorian wrote:
What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

Space marines can grab grav-weapons and those scare me. Dark Eldar maybe through pure bloody minded "I don't care about your toughness" weight of poisoned shots (maybe not an effective option, but a workable option). That's the only two I am personally familiar enough with to weigh in on.

Grav guns are indeed rather awesome at it (and quite a bit else besides), so that's one. Tau have those plasma spamming crisis teams, so that's two. Eldar have all that pseudo-rending and their Distort weapons, so that's likely three. GK have that teleporting Dreadknight schtick which I'd we willing to accept as a decent substitute for actual ranged kill capabilities (though it comes at a hefty price for a 1 trick pony), so that's four.

Don't really know DE well enough to tell how spammable their poison options are and/or whether or not they have any with AP2, but I'm pretty sure Dark Lances aren't more cost effective than destructeks for the task so they're likely out.

Anything else?

 dementedwombat wrote:

 Galorian wrote:
What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

Space marines can grab grav-weapons and those scare me.

Other than Gravcent-stars, how are they scary? They've got an 18" range and are really only effective on Relentless models, which means bikes, which in turn are now much worse than in 6th due to the changes to Jink.

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 dementedwombat wrote:

 Galorian wrote:
What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

Space marines can grab grav-weapons and those scare me.

Other than Gravcent-stars, how are they scary? They've got an 18" range and are really only effective on Relentless models, which means bikes, which in turn are now much worse than in 6th due to the changes to Jink.

Mostly fear of the unknown since my regular SM opponent doesn't use them. I haven't gotten to see first hand how effective they are.

The usual SM strategy I've seen to deal with my Riptide is to jam a land raider full of death company down my throat and tie it up in cc for the rest of the game. He has finally learned that bringing a wall of vindicators and land raiders is what my army can't handle... I might actually have to start deep striking melta suits, but then I lose interceptor against his accursed dreadnoughts in pods!

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 dementedwombat wrote:

 Galorian wrote:
What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

Space marines can grab grav-weapons and those scare me.

Other than Gravcent-stars, how are they scary? They've got an 18" range and are really only effective on Relentless models, which means bikes, which in turn are now much worse than in 6th due to the changes to Jink.

Wait why do we get to include all the units of every other army but we can't include SM's Gravstars? That's like SM's thing right now, and isn't going to be pointed at anything except Riptides all game vs Tau

That's like saying "other than Riptides, how is this conversation relevant to anything at all"

Because it wouldn't be, if you just decide to randomly discount choice units

 Zagman wrote:
Skimmers get to Jink even if they haven't moved and even when Immobilized. Barges got that boost. Your anecdotal evidence is from 6th Ed when they were actually much more vulnerable and still undercosted then. They've gotten better. Plus, ancedotal evidence isn't great. I've lost Riptides to two Wave Serpents shooting in one turn. I've lost them to Distort in the first shot. Point being?


Necrons have S7 Tesla Spam, it kills Riptides just fine. S6 Tesla is as effective at killing a Riptide as Bolters are at killing Terminators. Plus, Necrons have Wraiths and CCB Lords, they eat Riptides for Breakfast and are easily fast enough to catch them.

Your math for the Annihilation Barge vs Riptide was off. 5.33 average S7 Tesla hits and 2 Average S6 Tesla Hits is .76 Wounds/Turn not including arcing damage on other units. It takes 2 Annihilation Barges 3.33 Turns to Kill a Riptide, assuming the Riptide chooses not to Nova at all. The Riptides Return fire is only 1HP/Turn with Quantum Shielding assuming a successful Nova every time. Damage gets better on following turns if QS was stripped. Either way, Annihilation Barges are good at killing Riptides just like every other target short of AV14.... and it isn't like the Necron won't have more TLTesla Destructions hitting the field with Nightscythes. And they will be cheap flyers... that don't kill their troops and can drop them off anywhere on the board.


I'm sorry if Necrons aren't getting any sympathy here, Tau took a major hit with the transition to 7th, especially the Riptide, and will likely drop from 2nd most dominating army to high middle of the pack while Necrons got a boost and were already 4th for tournament strength with one of the best Tournament builds out there. Only the O'vesaStar kept the Tau doing well at high levels, whereas Wraithwing TeslaCrons was a dominating army and got only better, and now has the CCB Lord.

I see Necrons dominating tournaments and commanding 2nd spot to Eldar, especially in any Dual CAD setup, because of 6xAnnihilation Barges.


Edar, SM, and Necron all have readily accessible ways of killing Riptides at range. Grav and Distort are the clear winners, though Serpents put enough wounds on them per turn to not matter either, .74 Wounds/Turn on average for Serpents without underslung Shurikens. DE Poison and Lance spam is terrifying. Tau can do it, though its an ugly slap fest unless Kroot Snipers are in play. Daemons don't do it with Range, they do it in CC. Tyranids do it with poisoned Gribblies so not at range.

My math wasn't off, you just didn't remember the start of the paragraph by the time you got to its end.

As for killing a Riptide in CC... How are jump infantry "easily fast enough to catch them"? I mean, I get CCBs- they turbo boost 18" and are all manner of broken at the moment to the point where after trying mine out at an apocalypse game a couple of weeks back I came to the conclusion it demands house ruling to not break the game (and there was a Warhound Titan on the other side of the table, so having that big of an effect on the game is no mean feat), but jump infantry move 12" and then run an extra d6", for an average of 15.5" per turn. The Riptide moves 6"+2d6" per turn for an average of 13", meaning that if it wants to get away they'd be closing on a 36" ranged model at a rate of 2.5" per turn and are one hell of a bullet magnet (durable, yes, but far from insurmountably so).

If they somehow survive long enough and manage to catch up to the Riptide by turn 4-5 (there's a limit to how far it can run away on a 48"x72" table so they might manage to corner it by then) the damage is mostly already done, and you've thrown easily twice the Riptide's point value in a wraithstar that spent the whole game chasing it around.

Another point you seem to be missing repeatedly, despite practically stating it yourself right now, is the fact the Annihilation Barge is undercosted. You're desperately struggling to prove the basic unsupported Riptide isn't better value per point than the Annihilation Barge, and it seems you don't realize that even if you manage to successfully argue that they've got a rough parity in value per point that would still mean the Riptide is undercosted.

Jet and Jump are effectively the same speed, the difference is Jet have a chance to either move less or move more in total throughout a turn. And the amount of table they have before running out of running room runs out way sooner than the table corners because of other models in the way, terrain the model cannot be placed on he didnt fully clear, or running into more of your guys.

Wraiths can EASILY catch a riptide because they move 12" and ignore terrain. Unless you play on a board with next to no LOS block, which would answer why you are so adamant about the riptide being OP before any support, wraiths shouldnt be getting shot at more than a few pot shots here and there before they make their strike. My friend back in South Korea when i was stationed there used a 5man Wraithstar with a lord or whatever that specific IC was called that works great with them always managed to keep them well hidden until they strike something by turn3 at the latest at 95% or better strength. Even if it wasnt my riptide, it was always something very important he managed to snag and those things are insanely resilient.

 Galorian wrote:

 Zagman wrote:
Skimmers get to Jink even if they haven't moved and even when Immobilized. Barges got that boost. Your anecdotal evidence is from 6th Ed when they were actually much more vulnerable and still undercosted then. They've gotten better. Plus, ancedotal evidence isn't great. I've lost Riptides to two Wave Serpents shooting in one turn. I've lost them to Distort in the first shot. Point being?


Necrons have S7 Tesla Spam, it kills Riptides just fine. S6 Tesla is as effective at killing a Riptide as Bolters are at killing Terminators. Plus, Necrons have Wraiths and CCB Lords, they eat Riptides for Breakfast and are easily fast enough to catch them.

Your math for the Annihilation Barge vs Riptide was off. 5.33 average S7 Tesla hits and 2 Average S6 Tesla Hits is .76 Wounds/Turn not including arcing damage on other units. It takes 2 Annihilation Barges 3.33 Turns to Kill a Riptide, assuming the Riptide chooses not to Nova at all. The Riptides Return fire is only 1HP/Turn with Quantum Shielding assuming a successful Nova every time. Damage gets better on following turns if QS was stripped. Either way, Annihilation Barges are good at killing Riptides just like every other target short of AV14.... and it isn't like the Necron won't have more TLTesla Destructions hitting the field with Nightscythes. And they will be cheap flyers... that don't kill their troops and can drop them off anywhere on the board.


I'm sorry if Necrons aren't getting any sympathy here, Tau took a major hit with the transition to 7th, especially the Riptide, and will likely drop from 2nd most dominating army to high middle of the pack while Necrons got a boost and were already 4th for tournament strength with one of the best Tournament builds out there. Only the O'vesaStar kept the Tau doing well at high levels, whereas Wraithwing TeslaCrons was a dominating army and got only better, and now has the CCB Lord.

I see Necrons dominating tournaments and commanding 2nd spot to Eldar, especially in any Dual CAD setup, because of 6xAnnihilation Barges.


Edar, SM, and Necron all have readily accessible ways of killing Riptides at range. Grav and Distort are the clear winners, though Serpents put enough wounds on them per turn to not matter either, .74 Wounds/Turn on average for Serpents without underslung Shurikens. DE Poison and Lance spam is terrifying. Tau can do it, though its an ugly slap fest unless Kroot Snipers are in play. Daemons don't do it with Range, they do it in CC. Tyranids do it with poisoned Gribblies so not at range.

My math wasn't off, you just didn't remember the start of the paragraph by the time you got to its end.

As for killing a Riptide in CC... How are jump infantry "easily fast enough to catch them"? I mean, I get CCBs- they turbo boost 18" and are all manner of broken at the moment to the point where after trying mine out at an apocalypse game a couple of weeks back I came to the conclusion it demands house ruling to not break the game (and there was a Warhound Titan on the other side of the table, so having that big of an effect on the game is no mean feat), but jump infantry move 12" and then run an extra d6", for an average of 15.5" per turn. The Riptide moves 6"+2d6" per turn for an average of 13", meaning that if it wants to get away they'd be closing on a 36" ranged model at a rate of 2.5" per turn and are one hell of a bullet magnet (durable, yes, but far from insurmountably so).

If they somehow survive long enough and manage to catch up to the Riptide by turn 4-5 (there's a limit to how far it can run away on a 48"x72" table so they might manage to corner it by then) the damage is mostly already done, and you've thrown easily twice the Riptide's point value in a wraithstar that spent the whole game chasing it around.

Another point you seem to be missing repeatedly, despite practically stating it yourself right now, is the fact the Annihilation Barge is undercosted. You're desperately struggling to prove the basic unsupported Riptide isn't better value per point than the Annihilation Barge, and it seems you don't realize that even if you manage to successfully argue that they've got a rough parity in value per point that would still mean the Riptide is undercosted.

I apologize, I glanced back at the FNP values and was mistaken. .76 Wounds/Turn is correct. 1.52Wound/Turn for an equal value, assuming unupgraded Riptide.

Also, Tau Plasma is S6, not S7. Your lack of knowledge of Tau Weaponry shows that you need to study their codex a bit more carfully. You have been incorrect on two staple weapons, the Plasma Rifle and Fusion Blaster.

2.5"/turn assumes that the Riptides get to move directly backwards ie an endless table. That is definitely not the case. Most Riptides get Caught T2/3, that is a fact and is difficult to mitigate. Keeping the Riptides away until T4-5 is virtually impossible. It also doesn't change that the rest of the Tau army isn't nearly as mobile and with assault and consolidation they close that difference quickly. Barge Lords do it T2 or they die generally.

I'm not desperately trying to prove the Riptide is on par with the Annihilation Barge, the Annihilation Barge is point for point better in 7th edition. You've been helpful enough to demonstrate this. They may have been much closer in 6th, but not in 7th. You are desperately trying to prove that the Riptide is better than the Annihilation Barge and failing. Your arguments are riddled with 6th Ed thinking and use favorable assumptions whenever possible.

The Annihilation Barge is agreed to be under costed, the Riptide has been shown to be a worse value, therefore the Riptide is less undercosted, ie more appropriately costed, than the Annihilation Barge.

And you have yet to post any value about eney AV or both's use as AA. The Annihilation Barge loses effectively nothing while the Riptide has to spend more points for that role and is demonstrably less effective point for point at it anyway. Go ahead and show they have similar capabilities in some ways, but you cannot simply hand wave away the fact that the Annihilatin Barge is flat out superior against one form of target Flyers, and more efficient against Vehicles as a whole without a single extra point spent. And to do an accurate assessment, we then have to factor in the lowed point efficiency against all other targets.

Do not cherry pick your data, you have to equally weigh all aspects of the issue.

The Riptide is more appropriately costed than the Annihilation Barge in 7th Ed.

 SHUPPET wrote:

 AlmightyWalrus wrote:

 dementedwombat wrote:

 Galorian wrote:
What armies do you reckon DO have effective ranged option for Riptide hunting?

Space marines can grab grav-weapons and those scare me.

Other than Gravcent-stars, how are they scary? They've got an 18" range and are really only effective on Relentless models, which means bikes, which in turn are now much worse than in 6th due to the changes to Jink.

Wait why do we get to include all the units of every other army but we can't include SM's Gravstars? That's like SM's thing right now, and isn't going to be pointed at anything except Riptides all game vs Tau

That's like saying "other than Riptides, how is this conversation relevant to anything at all"

Because it wouldn't be, if you just decide to randomly discount choice units

Because a Grav-star is easily 500+ points, not as effective with the new Psychic rules, and more or less requires you to build your army around supporting it. If every Space Marine player has to play a Grav-star list to handle Riptides, that should probably tell you something about the power level of the Riptide.

I agree the Riptide is way OP

Gravstar might be expensive but its still very common


It's silly to just discount units though and adds nothing to the argument either way

I don't care if its +500 pts, so is the 3 Riptides every Tau player fields

Things you missed:

1-tau plasma is not S7, its S6 (though it does not get hot,), and with 53 points a suit, its still 26 points per BS3 plasma rifle, not less then anyone else packing them pays, in fact everyone else pays less per plasma gunner-even at higher BS, the only thing special here is the choice to spam them rather then have them as part of bigger teams, so you practically pay more for the ability to focus.
And by "pay more" I mean that the price of a single plasma gun for IoM/chaos is 10 points, for tau its 15.

2-riptide deals, as stated (and ignored) not 2 wounds to itself, but 3.3 wounds to itself over 6 turns-2 from nova, and another 1.3 more from the HBC itself, unless he stops using overcharged HBC-and that falls to the same "crippled" line you did with barges, so I went with it.
That means 1.7 hp in a single turn IS crippling, as from that point on, you either tone down your NOVA, where most of the HBC's power come from, or accept that you will kill yourself.
and as you yourself shown, more often then not there will be another turn of just as much firepower, and at least 50% as much firepower.

3-I did not even assume I am trying to blow up the barge, I accepted the fact that 1 turn, more often then not, will not be enough, by YOUR calculations (1HP average, 38.9% to cripple, though I disagree the cripple is that high, I went with it.) and the fact you got two barges for the price, means you get at least one of them to fire twice, heck I used the result for "3 rounds" of a barge shooting, once for the first, twice for the second-so its even IF the cripple went well. that led to 2.666 wounds-already shown to be far more then the riptides "true wounds" on full efficiency, as on full efficiency he has a mere 1.66 wounds. if both barges survived, again it means the riptide take 3.55 wounds, and will kill itself even without the HBC and just ripple fire by the time the game ends, or abort NOVA at all, and allow himself to fall into the abyss lacking firepower against pretty much every target, and outright useless against many.
Crippled, just like the after-pen result on the barge might be.

4-as for DE, pretty much every single gun they field (including basic fire) is either poison, or S8AP2 lance shots. standard issue troop unit of kabalite warriors can bring out 9 rapid-fire poison guns and a assault4/heavy6 poison gun riding in a fast open topped skimmer that carries wither a S8AP2 lance gun or S5AP2 triple-shot gun. that's 160 points troop squad. they do really well when it comes to killing anything and everything.

5-as for other armies, inqusition can spam the cheapest plasma troopers out there (14 point plasma trooper. no real armor though), orks are getting updated, BA and SW are badly behind in codices and and mostly SM-1 right now, IG got monster-hunter shells and tons of guns in general, anyone else needs to be discussed?



SHUPPET-such fallacies I can't even believe you are serious. "3 riptides every tau player fields"? I don't know a single local tau that even once fielded more then two, and when tau players DO spam riptides, its IA riptides-for a good reason.
The whole discussion here is HBC riptides, as the point is that HBC riptides are fair enough, and the IA upgrade is the game beaker.

 SHUPPET wrote:

It's silly to just discount units though and adds nothing to the argument either way

Yes, it does. If the Riptide is enough of a threat that the only solution to it in Codex: Space Marines is Gravturions then something's obviously not right.