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 wuestenfux wrote:
Well, 40k is more and more the core business of GW.
What I don't understand why they don't give Fantasy a chance to grow or restart with releasing a new rule book.

No market research = they don't understand what to do to give it that chance. Much easier to blame it on (paraphrasing) "cyclical changes in taste".

 wuestenfux wrote:
The pace of codex updates is really astonishing.
Now SW. Then GK in a few weeks.
GW obviously thinks that this will increase sales.

Thoughts?

Vet players will generally only buy the new stuff. In terms of SW, flyers and Murder*.
On the other hand, the number of players starting SW will be rather limited due to prices and LE of the starter box Sanctus Reach.

There are several factors involved.

Doubling the cost of codexes will not have increased sales numbers. The evidence suggest if anything it reduced overall sales (total value of sales fell last year.)

Let us assume there is a codex that in the normal run of things would come up for a new edition in mid-2016. Say it is Dark Eldar for the sake of the argument.

If GW bring out a new DE codex now rather than in 2016, obviously there are some DE players who will buy it now despite the price. Equally obviously though they won't buy it in 2016. So, in a sense, GW would be cashing in their codex chips early. There are about 12 (?) factions or codexes in 40K. There is no particular reason why they could not all be issued at the same time. The problem for GW is that if all the players who want the new edition buy it in 2014, the sales will collapse in 2015 unless they invalidate the codexes with a new rules edition. Which to some degree is what they did with 7th edition coming less than two years after 6th edition. It is like spending money with a credit card.

Overall I strongly approve of codexes being updated to the latest edition of the rules as quickly as possible. It is only fair that all armies in a supposedly competitive, balanced game (ha ha) should be operating in the same rule system. I do not believe players will stand for buying a new codex for their army every year or two, though, just because GW might want to issue a new rulebook every 23 months.

Possibly GW plan to fill in with digital releases and other add-on packs. ATM the digital publishing is a tiny fraction of the overall sales but it probably will grow, though how big is guesswork.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what they decide to do when they catch up to the new codices in the cycle. Do they think that CSM players are going to buy a new codex less than 3 years after their last one?

Come to think of it, that thing's such a pile of crap that it might work in that instance. I guess the real question is what about DA or Chaos Demons?

If they keep up at the current rate, they're going to hit the same wall that the rules are starting to hit: people aren't going to buy the same books every 2 years.

Especially when the books cost double what they did two years ago.

The release schedule doesn't bother me in the slightest - I think it's great on it's own. I do think the quality of the codices has decreased lately, but I blame that more on the shift to the "DLC" model. A basic codex is sold with the hope that more exciting DLC will be guaranteed purchases - GW doesn't seem to realise that poor codices instead makes many people not buy them thus defeating the purpose.

If the rule quality was good I'd buy the codices for my armies without much complaint. If they were also cheap I'd likely buy many or all of them, likely inspiring me to start more armies. As KilKrazy has said before- expensive (and bad) codices costs GW model sales.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what they decide to do when they catch up to the new codices in the cycle. Do they think that CSM players are going to buy a new codex less than 3 years after their last one?

Indeed, this will become interesting.

Maybe they will first release some digital supplements.
If it doesn't work, they will release 8th ed.

GW / Kirby was right in a limited way about their customer base: for items they like, cost does not factor in... much.

BUT, it is the non-essential items that no longer are bought.

I used to like getting all the codex's so I can keep up on all the rules of armies I may fight, now, I try to find means to read them without buying them since I do not "need" them.

GW paint, not essential, many good brands out there and with better paint containers that do not dry out as readily.

The new clippers and mold line remover are really good products, they work great, but my goodness the price! Other tools will do...

Rucksack, figure storage cases, terrain, glue, dice, tape measures, all stuff you can get elsewhere of better quality for a lower price.

There were discussions of wanting various clothing/jewelry items people would like, could you imagine what they would cost in GW prices? $50 for a T-shirt with an Ultramarine symbol on it?

I guess in summary, GW management does not distinguish between core "must have items" being priced to what the market can bear vs. the "nice to have" and them being geared toward being a little more competitive while justifying a slightly higher price by being collectors items with their branding on them.
Many opportunities for profit but no real plan on how they fit in their niche.

I still have that quote rattling around in my head: "We do no demographic research, we have no focus groups, we do not ask the market what it wants."
It takes a particularly brilliant company to anticipate what the consumer wants without knowing their wants, culture or habits.

To lead the consumer, develop their tastes and develop excitement takes intense market research and marketing campaigns, bah, you get the point... arrogance and bluster seems to rule the day and we will see the golden parachute utilized before Kirby would admit he may be wrong.

Who am I kidding, he would never admit that.

I think one thing that is being overlooked with the accelerated release schedule is people buying power and/or painting backlog will not keep up with the new pace.

Assumption 1: Most people in the hobby are on some kind of fixed allotment of how much they can spend either by choice or by lack of finances.

Assumption 2: Some portion of people also tend to look at the big pile of NIB models in the corner and at some point decide to put on the breaks until they can catch up

Let's assume I am the most hardcore 40K fan out there and am completely happy with the game in its current state. Even if I want to make purchases as they come out, at some point the release schedule is going to out run my wallet and/or my desire to keep piling models up in the corner. Let's just look at the last 12 months and assume I have $750 allocated to put into the my SW army above and beyond painting supplies and other incidentals. Prices are all MSRP because I want to support my local FLGS or GW.

New Codex: $49.50
All dataslates: $10
1x Murderfang - $54
2x Stormwolf - $162
Brethern of the Fell-Handed: $162
7th edition codex - $85
Codex: Imperial Knights - $41
Imperial Knight - $140

That is $703.50 prior to sales tax, which is $745.71 after 6% sales tax. Eight months into the year, I'm done and can't buy anything else. Anything that comes out this year that I want, starts building a backlog into next year, meaning I either don't start a new army or I choose to limit my SW purchases, which makes me unhappy.

Let's assume that I own 2 separate armies or want to take advantage of my allies. This means every year, I'm probably going to have spend $100 just in books and another $50 to $100 in supplements. At some point, the money reaches critical mass and people throw their hands up and walk away.

I also think $750 per year is pretty liberal for most people. Assuming little Johnny gets $10 per week in allowance, but doesn't have to cover cloths or food. It's pure spending money. That is only $520 per year, which I doubt they are going spend all on GW products.

Barfolomew wrote:
I think one thing that is being overlooked with the accelerated release schedule is people buying power and/or painting backlog will not keep up with the new pace.

Assumption 1: Most people in the hobby are on some kind of fixed allotment of how much they can spend either by choice or by lack of finances.

Assumption 2: Some portion of people also tend to look at the big pile of NIB models in the corner and at some point decide to put on the breaks until they can catch up

Let's assume I am the most hardcore 40K fan out there and am completely happy with the game in its current state. Even if I want to make purchases as they come out, at some point the release schedule is going to out run my wallet and/or my desire to keep piling models up in the corner. Let's just look at the last 12 months and assume I have $750 allocated to put into the my SW army above and beyond painting supplies and other incidentals. Prices are all MSRP because I want to support my local FLGS or GW.

New Codex: $49.50
All dataslates: $10
1x Murderfang - $54
2x Stormwolf - $162
Brethern of the Fell-Handed: $162
7th edition codex - $85
Codex: Imperial Knights - $41
Imperial Knight - $140

That is $703.50 prior to sales tax, which is $745.71 after 6% sales tax. Eight months into the year, I'm done and can't buy anything else. Anything that comes out this year that I want, starts building a backlog into next year, meaning I either don't start a new army or I choose to limit my SW purchases, which makes me unhappy.

Let's assume that I own 2 separate armies or want to take advantage of my allies. This means every year, I'm probably going to have spend $100 just in books and another $50 to $100 in supplements. At some point, the money reaches critical mass and people throw their hands up and walk away.

I also think $750 per year is pretty liberal for most people. Assuming little Johnny gets $10 per week in allowance, but doesn't have to cover cloths or food. It's pure spending money. That is only $520 per year, which I doubt they are going spend all on GW products.

This is a very good example when it comes to keeping up with a new release.
The next releases GK, Necrons, and BA will badly hurt my wallet.

 wuestenfux wrote:

This is a very good example when it comes to keeping up with a new release.
The next releases GK, Necrons, and BA will badly hurt my wallet.

Let's look at my actual situation. I quit the game in early 5th edition. If I want get back into the game now as a CSM player, I at minimum should buy the following:

Chaos Demon Codex: $49.50
Chaos Space Marine Codex: $49.50
7th Edition Rules: $85

$184 before I can even play the game. This right here is enough for me to go feth that and go play something else.

Models I would like to get:

Herald of Khorne: $22.25
2x Flesh Hounds of Khorne: $99
Helbrute: $54
Vindicator: $57.75
Land Raider: $76
Aspiring Champion: $20
Huron Blackheart: $19.25
Sorcerer: $19.25

$367.50 for models I like the looks of, but if I want to be competitive, I need to buy 2 sets of models I think look aweful (Obliterators and Helldrakes), which set me back $381 of which one can only be ordered direct (Obliterators).

Also agree, that "critical mass" I have observed in my own spending habits.
I feel that badly enough with some X-wing models still in unbroken blister packs (for shame!).

I have one Imperial Knight I REALLY want to take the time and put together and paint well but my "core armies" are keeping me away as I paint so I can get in the gaming time and have the pretty army we all appreciate.

The backlog could comfortably take me to late spring next year (??!!).
So I am again at the point where only core codex's or rules changes would be a must buy.
I can find money for the occasional good blister pack character or a particularly cool model but that is it and very few and far between.

GW really needs to find a way to catch the eye of new customers with a ton of starter money to make their condensed release dates viable.
I am not sure where you find that kind of consumer but if you do not perform market research, wishful thinking is as good as anything else.

You are not supposed to want to be competitive.

Barfolomew wrote:

 wuestenfux wrote:

This is a very good example when it comes to keeping up with a new release.
The next releases GK, Necrons, and BA will badly hurt my wallet.

Let's look at my actual situation. I quit the game in early 5th edition. If I want get back into the game now as a CSM player, I at minimum should buy the following:

Chaos Demon Codex: $49.50
Chaos Space Marine Codex: $49.50
7th Edition Rules: $85

$184 before I can even play the game. This right here is enough for me to go feth that and go play something else.

Models I would like to get:

Herald of Khorne: $22.25
2x Flesh Hounds of Khorne: $99
Helbrute: $54
Vindicator: $57.75
Land Raider: $76
Aspiring Champion: $20
Huron Blackheart: $19.25
Sorcerer: $19.25

$367.50 for models I like the looks of, but if I want to be competitive, I need to buy 2 sets of models I think look aweful (Obliterators and Helldrakes), which set me back $381 of which one can only be ordered direct (Obliterators).

If you restart CSM, then the DV starter box would be an option. This will give you some nice CSM models, a Hellbrute, 20 Cultists, and a rulebook.
Don't forget CSM Bikers or Spawn which are rather popular if led by a Biker HQ.

The other thing about the accelerated pace of codex releases - even less playtesting,

Not playtesting is... bad.

Yet, somehow, a tiny company like Mantic can fit in the time to do playtesting, while the giant of the industry can't?

Something is very wrong there - and I think that it is because GW is becoming, ever increasingly, a self contained microcosm, where what is happening outside does not matter to them.

And the process of each codex is an even smaller microcosm, so there is little to no attempt for balance with the other codices.

Not new for them - the original Realms of Chaos and Waaaggh the Orks suffered from being similar microcosms. Tested only against themselves rather than against other armies in the WH40 and Fantasy universes.

The Auld Grump

 TheAuldGrump wrote:
Not playtesting is... bad.

Yet, somehow, a tiny company like Mantic can fit in the time to do playtesting, while the giant of the industry can't?

The Auld Grump

Agreed, it's totally silly the lack of meaningful playtesting GW uses.

Here in the Atlanta area, CMON has their HQ. They do playtesting for a variety of their upcoming games or updates on most Friday nights. They invite local players through their Facebook presence to come up to their facility for the testing sessions. CMON is a blip on the radar compared to GW, but they have a greater understanding of the need for playtesting, as well as gaining a degree of local community support by allowing local players to participate in that testing and having input into what needs to be improved or changed.

Where are people getting the idea there is an accelerated release schedule?

We aren't getting more product, we are just getting 4x one week's releases rather than 1x four weeks worth.

We still only get one new army update or equivalent per month, the Orks release seemed to go in forever, was it six weeks in a row? The fact that WHFB has very much been relegated to a distant second might make it seem like 40K is getting more stuff more often, but the reality is that any acceleration in launches is not that drastic from what we had previously, and it isn't a good excuse for the poor quality of some of the rules and other items that have been released.

There used to be a codex every six months.

Is GW coldly murdering their 'veteran' consumer base for the sake of the "Two Birthdays and a Christmas" demographic?

Shouldn't their own results for the past few years show them that it isn't really working?

Shouldn't they be working to find a way to successfully work with both ends of their market spectrum?

Well, any sane company would. However, Gw not conducting market research probably leads them to believe that they have no spectrum. That or they're actively trying to force a certain end of their spectrum to disengage - and it's working!

Kilkrazy wrote:There used to be a codex every six months.

Indeed, but that was back in fifth? I was taking people to mean the new week-by-week schedule, which simply isn't generating more product than the old "once a month" pattern, just that it appears more frequent.

Alpharius wrote:Is GW coldly murdering their 'veteran' consumer base for the sake of the "Two Birthdays and a Christmas" demographic?

Shouldn't their own results for the past few years show them that it isn't really working?

Shouldn't they be working to find a way to successfully work with both ends of their market spectrum?

"We do no demographic research, we have no focus groups, we do not ask the market what it wants."

 Azreal13 wrote:

Kilkrazy wrote:There used to be a codex every six months.

Indeed, but that was back in fifth? I was taking people to mean the new week-by-week schedule, which simply isn't generating more product than the old "once a month" pattern, just that it appears more frequent.

The new release pattern kicked off late last year (it was the 25 days of Advent 40k that marked my decision to stop caring).

 Alpharius wrote:
Is GW coldly murdering their 'veteran' consumer base for the sake of the "Two Birthdays and a Christmas" demographic?

Shouldn't their own results for the past few years show them that it isn't really working?

Shouldn't they be working to find a way to successfully work with both ends of their market spectrum?

Wouldn't that require them to know where the ends of the market are? Sounds like Market Re....[DELETED FOR HERESY]

So many excuses, usually in these things they tend to say how they are investing in some odd item to improve for the future.

You know, bother to say something like "Yeah, it is not as good now but that is because we are working toward our newest plan that will be so much better in the new year!!!"

I think Kirby was trying to cater to all those who are "smart like him" and are on the dividend gravy train: no worries, the company has lots of room for cost savings and assets to leverage, we can squeeze out a few more years of profit and pay ourselves further! Never mind crazy talk like expanding markets, new technologies and IP opportunities.

That is the concern with this report, no looking to the future.

Kirby really likes that Apple comparison but Steve Jobs actually wanted perfection out of the products they sold and the money would follow, that attitude did not seem to translate.

Azreal13 wrote:

Alpharius wrote:Is GW coldly murdering their 'veteran' consumer base for the sake of the "Two Birthdays and a Christmas" demographic?

Shouldn't their own results for the past few years show them that it isn't really working?

Shouldn't they be working to find a way to successfully work with both ends of their market spectrum?

"We do no demographic research, we have no focus groups, we do not ask the market what it wants."

Jadenim wrote:

 Alpharius wrote:
Is GW coldly murdering their 'veteran' consumer base for the sake of the "Two Birthdays and a Christmas" demographic?

Shouldn't their own results for the past few years show them that it isn't really working?

Shouldn't they be working to find a way to successfully work with both ends of their market spectrum?

Wouldn't that require them to know where the ends of the market are? Sounds like Market Re....[DELETED FOR HERESY]

Heh!

I get that they don't do demographic research, have no focus groups and do not ask the market what it wants.

BUT...wouldn't their own financial results tell them that what they're doing isn't really working?

 Alpharius wrote:
Heh!

I get that they don't do demographic research, have no focus groups and do not ask the market what it wants.

BUT...wouldn't there own financial results tell them that what they're doing isn't really working?

I wouldn't be surprised if the never put the two together. Sure, they can see sales declining, but maybe they think the reason is not enough GW stores, or those pesky online retailers selling things at a discount, or eBay or any number of things other than their own strategy. People aren't buying enough! Make the game bigger! Nonsense like that.

So the conclusion GW comes to is they need to have more things direct only, open up more one-man shops, release more content or larger kits. And it's completely wrong, because they don't do any research or ask the market what it wants, so they have no way of knowing what's not working, only that "something" isn't, and jump to the wrong conclusions.

Either Kirby and the Kronies are completely ignorant or they know what's going on and don't care because they've already made their money.

WayneTheGame wrote:
Either Kirby and the Kronies are completely ignorant

Nah

or they know what's going on and don't care because they've already made their money.

This!

 wuestenfux wrote:
The pace of codex updates is really astonishing.
Now SW. Then GK in a few weeks.
GW obviously thinks that this will increase sales.

Thoughts?

They can release new codexes as fast as they want, I still won't be buying them until they offer a softcover option.

Vet players will generally only buy the new stuff. .

This is not actually true.

A lot of vets build multiple armies, and even those who stick to the one army will generally need to buy additional stuff as new codexes rearrange their army.

 insaniak wrote:

Vet players will generally only buy the new stuff. .

This is not actually true.

A lot of vets build multiple armies, and even those who stick to the one army will generally need to buy additional stuff as new codexes rearrange their army.

Up until very recently, my usual pattern was to see/plan a playstyle I wanted to try out, figure out the codex that fit it best, and go buy the whole mess. That's where my CSM, Eldar, Skaven, & Necron armies all came from, but that's also what caused my IG, CSM, & Tyranid armies to grow as large as they did - potential for interesting new ways to play the army within the codex sometimes required a significant addition to the collection.

That ended last December, with the "25 days of silly new rules in a variety of hard-to-track formats."

Yep, I started playing my Marines out of the BA book, because, as Raven Guard, it allowed me to play them as I wanted without bending rules (already had ASM as troops etc)

When the last Codex SM book dropped, it fired me up to buy the models to allow me to use the variety of chapter tactics to play all sorts of flavours of Marine lists (not the smallest investment of which was a whole bundle of bikes)

The 7th book has enthused me enough about some of the copious chariot units my Daemons can field, but at this point I'm happy to hunt down second hand and alternate models, as I've had my enthusiasm repeatedly kicked in the interim to the point where I'm VERY reluctant to buy new, and even more reluctant to buy direct from GW.

WayneTheGame wrote:

 Alpharius wrote:
Heh!

I get that they don't do demographic research, have no focus groups and do not ask the market what it wants.

BUT...wouldn't there own financial results tell them that what they're doing isn't really working?

I wouldn't be surprised if the never put the two together. Sure, they can see sales declining, but maybe they think the reason is not enough GW stores, or those pesky online retailers selling things at a discount, or eBay or any number of things other than their own strategy. People aren't buying enough! Make the game bigger! Nonsense like that.

"Its all Chapter House Studios' fault, stealing revenue that rightly belongs to us."

-Tom Kirby.