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2016/04/10 16:00:33
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Polonius wrote: I should add that the GOP has really only had setbacks nationally, meaning the presidency. They're still stronger in the House, and while they might lose the Senate, they held it for six years. They also hold the majority of Governorships and state legislations.
Sure, it’s important to recognise that Republicans are dominant in non-presidential elections. They have a smaller base but it gets out and votes. That’s an advantage in lower profile elections. The party is not weak at this point in the basic metric of scoring votes and winning elections.
Rather Republican weakness is a combination of things. There’s a lack of party discipline, as seen by the bloated presidential field and weak efforts to move against Trump early in the campaign. And there’s a rather severe lack of purpose in the Republican party right now – can anyone name an issue championed by the Republican party today that commands more than about 30% support among the general public? And then on top of that you add the long term demographics issues.
I think you’re right that the party would be much better served by ignoring the angry Tea Party style crowd that’s commanded outsized attention in the last few cycles. But doing that would require individual Republicans risking primary battles, and winning those primaries would require those candidates to find some way to cut through and win votes from the calmer conservative base. I’m not sure that’s as easy as the party just choosing to do it.
Automatically Appended Next Post:
whembly wrote: Asked how Republicans who dislike Cruz could support the Texas senator's campaign, Graham said, "If I can do it, anybody can do it."
Ha! Okay, this has replaced the Clinton shrug as my favourite bit of the election so far.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/04/11 01:47:44
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2016/04/11 02:07:40
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
I hope the mods don't mind me posting this, but I've been doing some spring cleaning, and as always, I've got too many books, and not enough shelf space.
However, the plus side is that you encounter books you forgot you had, and I'd like to recommend these books to my fellow dakka members.
These books are about American politics and history, so technically, it's relevant to the discussion
All these books carry the DINLT seal of approval
1) What Hath God Wrought: The Transformation of America, 1815–1848 by Daniel Walker Howe. A very good, political, economic and social history of this crucial chapter in American history.
2) Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA by Tim Weiner. Until reading this book, I didn't realise how ineffective, or how wasteful the CIA have been over the years, but I suspect most Americans know this!
3) Crazy Horse and Custer by Stephen E Ambrose. The US military really needs to name a ship or helicopter after Crazy Horse. A true icon of American history.
4) The 2nd amendment: a biography by Michael Waldman. Worth pointing out that the author worked for Bill Clinton at one time, but for a non-American like myself, it was an excellent overview of an important issue.
The issue of gun control has been on going since the day the 2nd was written, and over the years, different generations of Americans have approached it in different ways, as have the courts.
"Our crops will wither, our children will die piteous
deaths and the sun will be swept from the sky. But is it true?" - Tom Kirby, CEO, Games Workshop Ltd
2016/04/11 15:02:13
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
3) Crazy Horse and Custer by Stephen E Ambrose. The US military really needs to name a ship or helicopter after Crazy Horse. A true icon of American history.
Doing one better.
Full Frontal Nerdity
2016/04/11 18:31:53
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
If you have never been to Crazy Horse monument, do yourself a favor and go. Yeah, it will likely take another 50 years to complete, but it is pretty damn impressive. Self funded. And it will absolutely dwarf Mt. Rushmore. We do stuff big in SD. TX ain't got nothing on us.
Spoiler:
Edit: damn, how does one use the spoiler button to hide big images? Sorryfor making you squint guys...
This message was edited 6 times. Last update was at 2016/04/11 18:51:40
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2016/04/11 18:42:48
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
I've been there twice, and have a piece of the mountain sitting on my desk at home. It is incredibly impressive, and it's pretty close to Mt. Rushmore as well, so would make a great trip for anyone.
Full Frontal Nerdity
2016/04/11 20:05:16
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Gordon Shumway wrote: Yeah, it will likely take another 50 years to complete, but it is pretty damn impressive.
I thought that it was essentially an abandoned project that ran out of money awhile back.
It did and was, but about fifteen years ago it got new management and has been advancing quite well. It's making bank for the past ten years or so (more than its progress would suggest) There were some rumors that it couldn't be completed a few years ago due to some fault lines or weak strata, but that seems to have been overcome or mitigated and it's all steam ahead, afaik. I own a cabin in the hills so I try to keep up on the whatnots and wherefores. Go see it and contribute if you get the chance.
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2016/04/11 21:42:46
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Don't Crazy Horse's people hate the idea of that sculpture as Crazy Horse didn't want a sculpture, the mountain it is being made out of is considered sacred so it is like making a Starbucks out of the Sistine Chapel, and the original sculptor did it (and the faces) out of a 'feth nature I rule all this' kind of attitude?
Amidst the mists and coldest frosts he thrusts his fists against the posts and still insists he sees the ghosts.
2016/04/11 22:27:03
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
3) Crazy Horse and Custer by Stephen E Ambrose. The US military really needs to name a ship or helicopter after Crazy Horse. A true icon of American history.
I feel it necessary to point out that that author, Stephen Ambrose is kind of reviled among the historian community for his *cough*plagiarism*cough*
Still, you may get some takers on the book.
2016/04/11 23:16:13
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
Ahtman wrote: Don't Crazy Horse's people hate the idea of that sculpture as Crazy Horse didn't want a sculpture, the mountain it is being made out of is considered sacred so it is like making a Starbucks out of the Sistine Chapel, and the original sculptor did it (and the faces) out of a 'feth nature I rule all this' kind of attitude?
Some do. Many were very supportive of it. One Chief gave up all 900 acres of the land he owned in trade for the mountain that it is being carved on, so that it could be done.
3) Crazy Horse and Custer by Stephen E Ambrose. The US military really needs to name a ship or helicopter after Crazy Horse. A true icon of American history.
I feel it necessary to point out that that author, Stephen Ambrose is kind of reviled among the historian community for his *cough*plagiarism*cough*
Still, you may get some takers on the book.
In my budding professional opinion, as a historian, I would say that Ambrose isn't so much a plagiariser, as he is a victim of the history paper mill that he runs. When you're cranking out dozens of books, thousands and thousands of pages of text and information, honestly you are just going to miss a few things here and there.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/04/11 23:17:34
Full Frontal Nerdity
2016/04/12 00:16:47
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
My background in professional History wasn't in American history but Ambrose did come up occasionally in conversations as divisive. I still have a few of his books from back in the day.
Amidst the mists and coldest frosts he thrusts his fists against the posts and still insists he sees the ghosts.
2016/04/12 00:48:13
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
In an interview with The Denver Post at the Colorado GOP convention, he also dings EPA over Gold King Mine spill
COLORADO SPRINGS — If elected president, Republican Ted Cruz said Saturday he would not interfere with Colorado's legalization of marijuana.
In an one-on-one interview Saturday with The Denver Post, the Texas senator said he opposes legalization but declared that the U.S. Constitution allows "states to experiment."
"I think on the question of marijuana legalization, we should leave it to the states," Cruz said before addressing 6,000 GOP activists at the state GOP convention in Colorado Springs."If it were me personally, voting on it in the state of Texas, I would vote against it.
"The people of Colorado have made a different decision. I respect that decision," he continued. "And actually, it is an opportunity for the rest of the country to see what happens here in Colorado, what happens in Washington state, see the states implement the policies, and if it works well, other states may choose to follow. If it doesn't work well other states may choose not to follow."
Cruz declined to make a judgment about the first two years of legalization in Colorado. "I'm going to give that some time to let the facts and evidence play out and ultimately that will be a decision for the people of Colorado," he said.
On the question of banking for the marijuana industry, Cruz said he hasn't studied the issue and needed to learn more before taking a position.
The White House hopeful is visiting Colorado for the first time to compete for the state's 37 national delegates. Cruz won 21 at seven congressional district conventions in the past week — a clean sweep — and is confident he can win a portion of the 13 statewide delegates awarded Saturday.
Still, Cruz said he is preparing for a "battle on the convention floor" in Cleveland with Donald Trump to "see who can earn a majority of the delegates."
He called a contested convention a "very significant possibility" and called the 21 delegates he won in Colorado vital to his effort.
"If that happens I am confident we are going to win in Cleveland at a contested convention," he said. "What we are seeing is, naturally, Republicans are uniting behind our campaign and once we do we are going to beat Hillary Clinton in November."
His strategy reflects a shift from earlier in the campaign, when he expressed confidence in capturing the delegates needed to reach the 1,237 mark to win the party's nomination.
Trump and Ohio Gov. John Kasich did not attend the state convention, sending surrogates in their place. Cruz suggested the reason Trump avoided making an appearance is "he was scared.
"They knew he wasn't going to do well," Cruz said. "He has lost now seven elections in a row in Colorado. And I think it is very likely when the delegates here vote it will become eight elections in a row. ... Donald doesn't handle losing well."
Addressing other Colorado issues in interviews with local reporters, Cruz criticized Planned Parenthood even as he condemned the attack on the Planned Parenthood clinic in Colorado Springs.
"Anytime there is a shooting by a deranged killer our hearts are grieving," he said. "That should never happen. And we need to do everything we can to prevent crimes of violence."
Referencing his career as a prosecutor, he continued, "you're never justified taking violence into your own hands."
"Planned Parenthood this past year was caught on film in what appears to be a pattern of multiple felonies," he continued, highlighting the disputed undercover video regarding fetal tissue. "It is unfortunate that the Obama Justice Department is so corrupt that they won't investigate a political ally of the Democratic Party and enforce the laws fairly."
Responding to the Animas River spill outside Durango last year, Cruz said it's just another example of the problems at the EPA, which he said has strayed from "its core mission of clean air and clean water."
"If you look at the tragic spill here, they are not even watching what they are doing and they are ending up causing massive environmental damage and there is no accountability," Cruz said.
"If anyone in the private sector did what EPA did what they did, they'd be prosecuted," he continued, sounding a popular GOP criticism. "We need to rein in the EPA and refocus it to what it's supposed to be doing, which is protecting our environment and not making it harder for people who are struggling to provide for their families and have good high paying jobs."
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2016/04/12 01:00:58
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
3) Crazy Horse and Custer by Stephen E Ambrose. The US military really needs to name a ship or helicopter after Crazy Horse. A true icon of American history.
I feel it necessary to point out that that author, Stephen Ambrose is kind of reviled among the historian community for his *cough*plagiarism*cough*
Still, you may get some takers on the book.
And in the literary community, he is beloved. Honestly, when it comes to anything to do with W.R. Hearst, it's pretty difficult to know where the truth ends and the fiction/slander begins. Just ask Welles. The plagiarism idea is a nonstarter in literary academic communities with Bierce. Not quite the same as saying Marlowe wrote Shakespere's stuff, but getting pretty close.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/04/12 01:03:43
Help me, Rhonda. HA!
2016/04/12 05:52:55
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
jmurph wrote: So Cruz yoinked all of Colorado's delegates with no voting. Trump is really getting smoked in the ground and technical game.
For a guy who's brand is built up around winning and being a winner, I wonder how much that might be impacted by Trump's incompetence in the nuts and bolts of the political process. Probably not much, given Trump's support base is generally quite low information and this stuff is quite technical, but it could still be part of an overall narrative of 'not such a winner afterall'.
EDIT: Yes it does... if Trump gets 50% in NY, WTA is triggered and he takes it all... if not, NY is by Congressional district. Cruz/Kasich just need to keep Trump from 50% and it's doable as they're competitive in update NY.
Just to update on this, NY doesn't have a statewide 50% WTA. The 50% only kicks in per congressional district, so even if Trump got more than 50% of the vote, he wouldn't claim all the delegates. He could only do that by getting 50% in every single congressional district, which isn't going to happen. NY will still end up being one of his best states, he'll still be behind where he needs to be to reach 1,237.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/04/13 04:19:36
“We may observe that the government in a civilized country is much more expensive than in a barbarous one; and when we say that one government is more expensive than another, it is the same as if we said that that one country is farther advanced in improvement than another. To say that the government is expensive and the people not oppressed is to say that the people are rich.”
Adam Smith, who must have been some kind of leftie or something.
2016/04/13 04:33:11
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
jmurph wrote: So Cruz yoinked all of Colorado's delegates with no voting. Trump is really getting smoked in the ground and technical game.
For a guy who's brand is built up around winning and being a winner, I wonder how much that might be impacted by Trump's incompetence in the nuts and bolts of the political process. Probably not much, given Trump's support base is generally quite low information and this stuff is quite technical, but it could still be part of an overall narrative of 'not such a winner afterall'.
That's my hope when he doesn't get to 1237 delegates on the first ballot.
Interestingly, Paul Ryan had to have a press conference to say "no, I'm not interested in the presidency". Then he goes to say that it should *only* be any of the candidates that actually ran in the primary. I wonder if he's signaling to the Rules Committee to tweak the convention rules to open it up to one of: Trump Rubio Kasich Carson Fiorina Perry Walker Jeb! Rand Paul Huckabee Christie Santorum Gilmore Jindal Graham Pataki
Gimmie Perry or Walker! But, I'll take Rubio/Cruz as consolation.
EDIT: Yes it does... if Trump gets 50% in NY, WTA is triggered and he takes it all... if not, NY is by Congressional district. Cruz/Kasich just need to keep Trump from 50% and it's doable as they're competitive in update NY.
Just to update on this, NY doesn't have a statewide 50% WTA. The 50% only kicks in per congressional district, so even if Trump got more than 50% of the vote, he wouldn't claim all the delegates. He could only do that by getting 50% in every single congressional district, which isn't going to happen. NY will still end up being one of his best states, he'll still be behind where he needs to be to reach 1,237.
Yeah... I edited that like five times as I was confused.
California is really the key state for Trump. What people don't know is that it's a closed primary and the GOP voters there tend to be very conservative. So, you'd think Trump would win a bunch of CA's delegate... but, I really think both Cruz and Kasich will do better than Trump.
According to 528, Trump is going to be shy about ~100 delegates (with him doing really well in NY, CT and MD), so my dream of a contested convention is highly likely.
This message was edited 1 time. Last update was at 2016/04/13 04:33:54
Live Ork, Be Ork. or D'Ork!
2016/04/13 04:35:15
Subject: Re:The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
whembly wrote: Interestingly, Paul Ryan had to have a press conference to say "no, I'm not interested in the presidency". Then he goes to say that it should *only* be any of the candidates that actually ran in the primary. I wonder if he's signaling to the Rules Committee to tweak the convention rules to open it up to one of:
Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Carson
Fiorina
Perry
Walker
Jeb!
Rand Paul
Huckabee
Christie
Santorum
Gilmore
Jindal
Graham
Pataki
Pretty stoked about none of those guys having any real chance of winning in the general.
lord_blackfang wrote: Respect to the guy who subscribed just to post a massive ASCII dong in the chat and immediately get banned.
Flinty wrote: The benefit of slate is that its.actually a.rock with rock like properties. The downside is that it's a rock
2016/04/13 04:52:50
Subject: The Political Junkie™ Thread - USA Edition
whembly wrote: Interestingly, Paul Ryan had to have a press conference to say "no, I'm not interested in the presidency". Then he goes to say that it should *only* be any of the candidates that actually ran in the primary. I wonder if he's signaling to the Rules Committee to tweak the convention rules to open it up to one of:
Trump
Rubio
Kasich
Carson
Fiorina
Perry
Walker
Jeb!
Rand Paul
Huckabee
Christie
Santorum
Gilmore
Jindal
Graham
Pataki
Pretty stoked about none of those guys having any real chance of winning in the general.
Until you realize that Hillary Clinton will overcome the insurgent Sanders campaign to win the Democratic nomiation.
Clinton vs. "not-Trump" has all the makings of a close race.
However, if Trump win's the GOP nomination? Clinton turns 45+ states FETHING BLUE!
