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Nikkenryu Tau for 4th Edition

3 Sniper Teams -  240
3 Broadsides w/SMS, ASS; TL w/HWDC+2 Shield Drones - 275
2 Broadsides w/TLPlas, MT; TL w/HWDC + 2 Shield Drones - 205 (or 290 for three BS)
3x 12 FCW inna Fish w/MT,DL,TA, SMS = 240 (120 in FCW, 120 in Fish)
2 Fireknife Crisis (MP/PR/MT) - 124
HQ Shas'el w/Cyclic Ion, PR, TA, HWMT - 100

1664 points for the core elements

Salt to taste and points levels.  For the current USGT season's 1750 you could drop in a suicide Shas'el, or you could plump for a 12-man Kroot squad, or a Pirhana and a few Seeker Missiles, or another Broadside (to bump the total to 6), or any number of 86 point options.

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The concepts:

GRAVITY: tempt the enemy to rush your Broadsides (if you use them, the TLPR/MT kits are good for this) and frustrate them with Fish in their way (or just channeling them and shooting up units as appropriate).  The Stealth Sniper units have no specific gravity, which is nice for staying unmolested or as lures.

MANEUVER: 3 mounted FCW units can put the shots where they need to be, and can get to where they need to go.  With Markerlight amplification they are very cost effective as well.

COST EFFECTIVENESS: The Sniper units are among the most cost-effective in the Codex in terms of points cost/points killed ratio, even before you start calculating the take from the 2 "free" Markerlight hits they dish out per turn.  9 of them will kill all the DakkaFexes you may face. 

TARGET OVERLOAD HANDLING: 5-6 Broadside TLRails will handle even the worst target overload problems.  They will reliably handle any land-based armour in short order, Monoliths are wasted, you can put 3 or 3.75 Zilla2+ wounds out per turn, and even 2 Falcons will fall over the course of the game from their shooting alone.

BOARD CONTROL: Broadside firing lanes can create "shadow" pockets to encourage enemy deployment in certain patterns.  Stealth Snipers, placed first, can put early HS units out of position (as the Sniper units are fungible) and one team should be used as a pushback unit in a forward position if possible.  Devilfish are ideal blockers and movement controllers in mid- and late-game use.

IS IT NIKKENRYU?: I'd say so, but hey - I invented/popularized Hybrid Tau and had Dakka help select the name.  The concepts are largely the same.  Since the FCW squads are much more effective now that they can be mobile, and aren't needed for screening, they can be effectively used to mirror the Stealth Suits' mobile small arms fire... and concentrate the Pulse Rifle fire they used to provide as a firebase using FoF/RF.  The Broadsides lose the raw cost-effectiveness that the SMS+MT config gave them, but the Rails are still so much more useful than the Head-mounted version that they are gold - and they still serve the same "Gravity" and "Channeling" purposes that the Broadsides did in v3 Nikkenryu.

The Sniper Squads are the replacement for the Kroot squads in Nikkenryu, and should serve adequately. As you may recall, Nikkenryu used 2-3 small units of Kroot (10-12) as Snipers.  They'd infiltrate to 22" away and plink out one MEq per turn.  Due to the cover saves they'd stay mostly unmolested from shooting (as it wasn't worth it) and the enemy would either have to divert shots or an assault unit to deal with the 70-84 point diversion.  Sniper units are even more effective in that role here, as they are very hard to shoot at and will require a unit diverted to deal with each one of them - and at the same points cost.  Note that the assault capabilities of Kroot have always been wretched and are not "lost" by this substitution.  The lack of Infiltrate will require more careful planning in the deployment, especially as one squad may also be used as a pushback unit, but the 36" gun range should allow for a bit more "give" in the placement precision.

WEAKNESS:  Fear of the Darkness.  This power just blows, and there's no way around the fact that Podded or Ported FotD can send almost all your AP2/3 fire (all HS choices) off the board in 1 turn.  Deploying far forward against Podders can help, as will ASS, but you're still in deep against a hybrid Marine army that uses a Termi Librarian with that power.

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I think this list should perform strongly against StealerShock, Zilla, and MechEldar.  The Sniper units and Broadsides will play hell with Chaos builds and non-FotD Marine builds, though Pods are always tough games. Gaunt Swarms can be tough to crack, as would be all-Infantry IG (though any builds with Tanks are in trouble).  New Orks, dunno - gotta see what they have in the new year.

Comments, questions, thoughts welcome.

-JTS

Your concept is fine. A few suggestions that might make it easier to meet your desired end.

I'd go for 2 x Broadside, ASS, HWTL and HWDC on team lead. 2 Shield drones. This unit is just perfect - it's scoring down to the last man, splits fire, moves and shoots (while running even, very important). The target lock only comes into play when you have more squads of these guys. It ensures that no shot is ever wasted - very cool.

3 with ASS and 2 drones is under half with 2 broadsides standing, Ld 7 with no rally? No deal.
2 with MTT, plasma, and 2 drones can't move-shoot. This is game breaking. Your move shoot squad will be hiding because they can pop out turn 1 and fire. These guys will be exposed (if they plan on doing anything) and one drone down is causing them to check LD8. If they run, well there goes shooting next turn too. Move and shoot is also a must for all objective missions.

Full DVF are too high on the target priority chain to be counted on for wall duty. Suggest removing the gunship upgrades and keeping them cheap to bring them down in terms of priority and soften the blow when they do get wrecked. Paying to lose gundrones is no fun either.

If you want gunships, a really sweet deal is a cheap pathfinder squad. Markers will be easy to use without exposing them to fire if you are drawing your enemy in. Meanwhile the DVF can be gunship equipped while not loaded with fragile troops, free reroll on your deepstrike scatter is a nice bonus.

You must've done some math that convinced you of the sniper teams. I personally have no experience with them as 240 points is a lot of scoring unit to give up when tourney results are so reliant on massacre wins now. I would seek filling the same roles with scoring substitutes. TLMP TA suits for 53 each are ridiculously good. They don't hate on 3+ saves nearly as well, but honestly the 3+'ers aren't the problem for tau anymore.

Hey this list looks pretty good! And has some pretty decent comp... bonus!

I like the Snipers. 240 is a lot of points, but they're great, and nobody ever bothers with them (unless they're in assault range!). If somebody convinced you to slim them down, I'd say drop only one squad.

Deathrains, as said before are absolutely amazing. I'd recommend adding a squad of two in there. You could drop two FW to make room for them in 1750. Kroot are a great addition as well, but might be hard pressed to find cover with your Broadsides getting priority. If anything I'd take 10 man squads for infiltrating and objective grabbing purposes.

Anyways, gotta love the love for the Broadsides.

Moz - I've seen a lot of TL going around on suits, particularly Broadsides, and since you're espousing them here, I gotta ask you: Why on EARTH would you want to split fire?

Mathematically, there's no chance for a reliable kill on a unit using a single shot. 5/8 is nice odds, 62.5%. But if I'm shooting at something, it's because I want it DEAD, not "maybe dead". If I'm using a rational fire plan, I am using the best gun for the job at the right time in the turn, and I want that target out of commission.

For two suit Broadside units, I understand the point that taking shots at two different units can prevent redundant results (e.g. two wounds on a one wound model, two Destroyed results on a tank) and instead get those effects on two different targets... but the fact is that doing so requires that I pass a Leadership test for target selection and then that the ~1/2.667 chance of a getting two wounds comes through for you... instead of living off the 7/8 chance that my two shots will net me the result I want/need that turn.

Note: even if I ran two units of identical Broadside kits, I'd be relying on passing BOTH targeting Leadership checks to get the same kill probabilities without (potentially) wasting any shots, and that's fairly unreliable from a probability standpoint.

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Moz: You make a good point that the first drone down on a TLPR/MT/2SD squad causes a Ld8 check that runs a risk of losing a turn of shooting. I am not expecting these guys to be subject to anything other than deepstrikers or extreme long range heavy weapons fire, so I don't think of it so much. I really like the doubled fire effect at 24" and tripled at 12", but weighing how often those scenarios happen versus how often I'm going to fail that Ld8 check and lose a turn of shooting is something I'll have to do some modeling against. Thanks!

Regarding the big beefy squad: losing the last two suits to a Ld7 check is a pretty big risk, but I will have had to take 10 MEq lascannon shots on the squad to get them to that point. How often will that be happening? Particularly when he has Fish he probably wants to be shooting at as well? I'm looking to make the suits an equivalent target class for target saturation, not to make them invincible.

Regarding Snipers: hells yes the math convinced me. They are jack diesel against Zilla3+ and MEq. The Deathrain suits are 1 MEq per 106 points vs 1.25 MEq per 80 points plus .66 markerhit for the Snipers. On Zilla3+ the Deathrain is .75 wounds for 106 points vs .75 wounds for 80 points, again plus markerhit. The cost effect is just superior (as in 20%+ better), and the survivability is very similar.

(Against AV12 Falcons, the Deathrains yield ~1.2 glances per turn, versus .25 glances per turn for the snipers, which just means we shouldn't be shooting snipers at Falcons. Are there enough other guns in the list to put hurt on them?)

If using Deathrains, I can see the Finder DS re-roll being really useful, but in this list I'm not often/ever DSing anything. I've considered Finders at this points level but the peak ROI for the markerhits comes off RF FCW. Taking an extra unit of those to leverage the "free" Sniper markerhits seems like a better deal, since losing a FCW/Fish squad to buy the Finders means I need both remaining FCW/Fish squads shooting, every turn, in concert with the Finders to make the 4 hits per turn from the Finders net maximum results. Doesn't seem likely.

I'll do some math and see just how much I can buy in "more shots" in terms of Deathrains by leaving the gunship upgrades off the FCW Fish. My earlier math indicated that those shots I'm buying on the Fish are CHEAP, but your point regarding raising them on the fire priority chart for the enemy does bear some consideration.

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Exokan: good point, I can scrape a few points to drop in 2 Deathrains at 1750 without sacrificing much of anything. Those extra Falcon glances could come in handy, and the extra shots at light vehicles won't suck.

-JTS

Shadowsun might be a good investement but only if you believe that you'll be facing alot of scary librarians.

It would seem that you've optimized this for the USGT metagame (nidzilla & Falcons), I wonder if Fzorgle lists might give you problem and from the rumors I suspect that the new orks with a footsloogin force will give you headaches.

Hmm. Hadn't thought of Shadowsun as FotD insurance. I'll take a look at her.

You're right about Fzorgle - I haven't seen any Fzorgle lists circulating, so haven't built accordingly.

Orks same - the codex isn't out yet so I haven't reviewed it nor seen any armies using it. If I'm facing 200 W of Boyz, they'll be in big 30W units which is tough. Two FCW + Fish units dropping and shooting is 6W from the Fish and 16W from the FCW - that's a good 22W punch that will have them testing morale on Ld8 reroll effectively, and cut down dramatically on return fire. If they're run Hobin-style (long parallel lines marching Napoleonic-like) then that leads to a big problem on the return fire and means my units die - so instead I'll start those dismounted and use the 30" range to hammer on the way in, while the Fish use their shots and movement to hunt the small outrider units.

The effective use of markerlight amplification may be key in such a scenario. One Fish, plus FCW boosted to BS5, means 4 kills from the Sniper Drones, plus 3 from the Fish, plus 13 from the FCW (5/9 * 24), which is 20 Wounds. Add another 8 from long range FCW shots and that's a dead unit. Can it repeat 6 times in a game to kill all those Boyz? I doubt it. A **heavy** footslogging Ork force is going to cause a lot of people a lot of problems, as Erik Hobin proved 5 years ago on the USGT circuit with his Feral Orks lists.

The 'More Orks than you have Bullets' ideal has always been strong against US shooting types.  That's about the only opponent that would really make a railhead worthwhile.  However, I have to wonder if orks won't finish up weak against Nidzilla. 

However, due to the power of the Tau basic gun I think you'll win most ork footslogging wars due to victory points unless the scenario really hurts you.  Against that kind of firepower, I don't see the Orks really getting there without some good rocket hits and a trick or two.  Unless Zagstrut happens to be involved.  He's going to give you nightmares, and may well turn the game singlehandedly. 

Another thing that may come into play with orks is pinning.  If the mob size does not affect pin checks, then those sniper rifles and even pulse carbines on drones will become invaluable.  Use some markerlight hits to add negative modifiers to the pin check and you'll be able to stop a mob for a turn without too much effort.