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Hi Guys.

We all know that the evil corporations have conspired against our suddenly damsel-in-distress white knight requiring Games workshop. We all know that because GW stock dropped about 150, we need to look at the end.

Except when that drop was fairly minute.

I mean, let me take that back. The drop was big, but that's not really all that much ground lost and it certainly isn't the end.

I had a look online, I felt this graph was most fitting as a representation of what we're dealing with. (sorry if the graph itself is too small.) this is performance since 2009.



Because everyone is so focussed on this particular six month period, this one:



You can clearly see that while the drop is markedly the largest that GW has suffered in this 4.5 year period, it is not such a loss that it can't come back, and it will. The company's not going to expire if it plays conservatively, and it will see a raise in stock again.

Unfortunately for us, Conservatively may very well mean more price hikes, more one-man stores, more lawsuits that they won't and shouldn't win. This company had a massive rise and has only dropped to a level that it was at one and a half years ago. IT hasn't dropped down to 200, its 2009 opener, it's dropped to 500. The stock hasn't completely crashed and I Doubt it will.

I'm not an economics major, so I won't pretend that I know this for fact, or that I am so sure that the doom mongering is wrong. All I know is the images I Can interpret, and to me, looking at a larger, fuller picture, not one that has a graph beginning at 500, that I can't possibly see this as the beginning of the end. Every company takes a dip. Did we doom monger in 2010/11 when their stock dropped about 50? It's higher than it was in 2010. I doubt that it is the end, and I hope having a look at a bigger graph will show you how much ground they've lost, as opposed to how much ground it feels like.

It's still on a downward tend it needs to escape to be considered fine for now.

Sadly, I *am* an economics major, and a qualified Chartered Accountant, and also have been working in business management for 20 years.

On the basis of that experience, I would say that your optimism may be misplaced.

The grounds for pessimism are based on past performance of a degree more sophisticated than a simple projection of the historic stock price. While no "crystal ball" can ever be perfect, I would respectfully suggest that there are more grounds for pessimism than optimism. Given that most of the "pessimists" are predicting that the IP will ultimately end up in someone else's hands, not that GW will disappear altogether and overnight...

Did you need a new thread to share your special snowflake opinion because the other thread wasn't enough of a platform for you?

http://www.dakkadakka.com/dakkaforum/posts/list/0/573800.page

No-one sensible is saying that GW is going to implode next week. Just that this might be a potential tipping point where things need to get done.
GW has done a lot of things to 'artificially' make themselves look better than they are: cost cutting + price increases. Neither of these are long-term sustainable strategies. So for a few years, it seems from a cursory glance that they're doing well - but reading between the lines it is obvious that unit sales have been falling dramatically, even with vastly increased rate of product release.

GW are still profitable, have cash in the bank, brand recognition and no debt. They could totally turn themselves around with relative ease. We just hope that a 20% crope in stock is enough of a kick to get them to do so.

We don't another financial thread, this can just go in the existing thread.