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Two lists that I’m considering are:
List One:
Be’Lakor
Black Mace Prince – Mastery Level 3, Wings, Armor, Black Mace, Spell Familiar, Gift of Mutation, Tzeentch
10 x CSM – 2 x Plasmagun, Rhino
10 x CSM – 2 x Meltagun, Rhino
10 x CSM – 2 x Meltagun, Rhino
10 x CSM – 2 x Meltagun, Rhino, Dirge Caster
Heldrake – Hades Autocannon
Heldrake – Baleflamer
It’s pretty straight forward. Solid troops with a couple heavy hitters and four flying targets.

List two has less resilient troops, but more of them and heavier hitters. I’m leaning towards this one as a stronger list:
List Two:
Be’Lakor
Black Mace Prince – Mastery Level 3, Wings, Armor, Black Mace, Spell Familiar, Gift of Mutation, Tzeentch
5 x CSM – 1 x Flamer, Rhino
5 x CSM – 1 x Meltagun, Rhino
5 x CSM – 1 x Meltagun, Rhino
Heldrake – Hades Autocannon
Heldrake – Baleflamer
Lord of Change – Mastery Level 3, 2 x Greater Rewards
18 x Daemonettes
17 x Daemonettes
Here, I want to keep my troops in reserve (or at least as many as I can with current rules) and just have my big nasties on the board causing mayhem.
Which do you think is tougher?

I don't pick lists. Its what ever you want to run and what works for you. I'm a chaos player so I can make your first list better.

First off.For an objective based game.. Your probably leaving an objective in your base. Buy an aegis line quad guard gun for protection and an it flyers. Drop one rhino leave a CSM squad in the back to hold the point. Give them a las cannon for vehicles. This will help you a great deal. I would even consider dropping a CSM squad and bring a havoc squad or Nurgle Obliterator squad. I think you'll find that more helpful. The hades on your heldrake. Drop it the hades, leave it with the Baleflamer. The only time hades drakes are useful is against IG with their army of tanks. Otherwise, stick with Baleflamer.