Russia opens fire on Ukraine again as the West stands by

In the six months after a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine was supposed to have taken effect this year, Russian-backed forces kept up a low-level barrage of sniping and shelling along the front lines, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers while avoiding censure from the Western governments that brokered the deal. Then, on Sept. 1, the guns fell silent — just as Russian forces began streaming into Syria. For two months, the cease-fire held and international monitors reported progress in implementing agreements on the withdrawal from the front lines of heavy weapons.

Now the Russian guns are firing again. In the past week there have been dozens of incidents daily in which the supposedly withdrawn weapons, including heavy mortars and Grad rockets, have been fired at Ukrainian positions. Nine Ukrainian soldiers have been reported killed. Having proved in September that he could switch off the shooting in Ukraine when it suited him, Russian President Vladi­mir Putin has now, at a minimum, allowed it to resume. It’s a development that Western governments contemplating an alliance with the Russian ruler in the Middle East cannot afford to ignore.

Why would Russia have broken the calm in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, where it controls a force of some 40,000 fighters armed with advanced tanks, artillery and electronic warfare systems? Some Ukrainian officials speculate that Mr. Putin might be seeking to disrupt free-trade and visa-liberalization agreements between Ukraine and the European Union, which are due to take effect shortly. Others believe the military pressure is meant to induce Ukraine, Germany and France to capitulate to Moscow’s demands in ongoing negotiations over a political settlement in the region.

What’s clear is that Mr. Putin has not given up his objective of restoring Russian control over part or all of Ukraine. He still seeks to undermine the pro-Western government in Kiev; this week the Kremlin announced a ban on Ukrainian food imports. Through the peace talks, Mr. Putin is attempting to force Ukraine to accept the authorities he installed in the territories captured by Russia and to rewrite the constitution to give them special powers. Meanwhile, he uses his military forces to probe and pressure.

Ukrainian officials suspect that Mr. Putin’s offer to ally with the West in the Middle East may be part of this game. The price for cooperation with France and the United States in Syria, they worry, may be concessions on Ukraine — such as the lifting of E.U. sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion, which will lapse in January if not renewed. European officials have said the sanctions will remain in effect until the peace agreement, which calls for Russian forces to withdraw, is fully implemented. But that was before the terrorist attacks in Paris and French President François Hollande’s decision to reach out to Mr. Putin.

The resumed shooting by Russian forces in Ukraine does not appear to have slowed Mr. Hollande’s initiative. It should. If Western governments ally with Russia in Syria even as its forces attack Ukraine, they will be tolerating and even encouraging Mr. Putin’s aggression.IN THE six months after a cease-fire in eastern Ukraine was supposed to have taken effect this year, Russian-backed forces kept up a low-level barrage of sniping and shelling along the front lines, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers while avoiding censure from the Western governments that brokered the deal. Then, on Sept. 1, the guns fell silent — just as Russian forces began streaming into Syria. For two months, the cease-fire held and international monitors reported progress in implementing agreements on the withdrawal from the front lines of heavy weapons.

Now the Russian guns are firing again. In the past week there have been dozens of incidents daily in which the supposedly withdrawn weapons, including heavy mortars and Grad rockets, have been fired at Ukrainian positions. Nine Ukrainian soldiers have been reported killed. Having proved in September that he could switch off the shooting in Ukraine when it suited him, Russian President Vladi­mir Putin has now, at a minimum, allowed it to resume. It’s a development that Western governments contemplating an alliance with the Russian ruler in the Middle East cannot afford to ignore.

Why would Russia have broken the calm in Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, where it controls a force of some 40,000 fighters armed with advanced tanks, artillery and electronic warfare systems? Some Ukrainian officials speculate that Mr. Putin might be seeking to disrupt free-trade and visa-liberalization agreements between Ukraine and the European Union, which are due to take effect shortly. Others believe the military pressure is meant to induce Ukraine, Germany and France to capitulate to Moscow’s demands in ongoing negotiations over a political settlement in the region.

What’s clear is that Mr. Putin has not given up his objective of restoring Russian control over part or all of Ukraine. He still seeks to undermine the pro-Western government in Kiev; this week the Kremlin announced a ban on Ukrainian food imports. Through the peace talks, Mr. Putin is attempting to force Ukraine to accept the authorities he installed in the territories captured by Russia and to rewrite the constitution to give them special powers. Meanwhile, he uses his military forces to probe and pressure.

Ukrainian officials suspect that Mr. Putin’s offer to ally with the West in the Middle East may be part of this game. The price for cooperation with France and the United States in Syria, they worry, may be concessions on Ukraine — such as the lifting of E.U. sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion, which will lapse in January if not renewed. European officials have said the sanctions will remain in effect until the peace agreement, which calls for Russian forces to withdraw, is fully implemented. But that was before the terrorist attacks in Paris and French President François Hollande’s decision to reach out to Mr. Putin.

The resumed shooting by Russian forces in Ukraine does not appear to have slowed Mr. Hollande’s initiative. It should. If Western governments ally with Russia in Syria even as its forces attack Ukraine, they will be tolerating and even encouraging Mr. Putin’s aggression.

 Sigvatr wrote:
There has never been an actual cease fire. There have always been smaller firefights at critical and non-critical points in the country. All sides have always had their hands into Ukraine, officially and unofficially. Anyone ever having had his feet on the ground over there knows that Russia has been involved pretty much straight from the start. It's a warzone over there.

 Iron_Captain wrote:
What a bs article. "Putin controls 40.000 fighters"?
First of all there is absolutely no certainty about the amount of fighters in DPR and LPR,
secondly, Putin has no direct control whatsoever. Even the leaders of DPR and LPR do not have control over many of the different groups and movements that are fighting there. The only control Putin has is in supplying weapons and other equipment, and indirectly through military advisors and secret service operatives.
Thirdly, the article completely ignores that Ukraine has been just as bad in observing the cease fire as the seperatists, for a large part because like the seperatists, the Ukrainian government does not have control over large parts of its forces.
Extremists on both sides will always continue fighting and try to stir things back up, regardless of what the leaders say.
Fourthly, "the ceasefire agreement calls for Russian forces to withdraw"? No it doesn't, Russsian forces aren't even officially involved, and no evidence for a significant presence of Russian combat forces exists. The Russians play a supporting role, actual fighting is left to the locals and volunteers.

And maybe mods can merge this in the larger Ukraine thread. I think in general, it is better to keep updating the big one when relevant things happen instead of creating new ones. That way we keep it all in one place.

 Iron_Captain wrote:

The only control Putin has is in supplying weapons and other equipment, and indirectly through military advisors and secret service operatives.