On a related note, did you guys see the report Kickstarter is currently showing on its success rates (which the above article references):
https://www.kickstarter.com/fulfillment?ref=hero
Kickstarter concludes from the study that only 9% of projects fail, but how they define it matters a lot, obviously. That's certainly a lower rate than I think many would expect, but as a study that involved the company themselves in data gathering it is a little bit hard to get fully behind the findings (especially Kickstarter's presentation of them on that page).
The full report is
here, or if that link doesn't work click on "Open PDF in Browser" on this page:
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2699251
And an interesting snippet:
We might also be concerned that a number of the projects that are currently waiting for
delivery will ultimately fail. If we look at older projects from 2012 or earlier, it may provide a
better sense of long-term success rates. For projects from 2012 or earlier, the failure rate is
13.9% for the broadest definition, 12.3% by the middle definition, and 8.6% by the strictest
definition. While these historical failure rates are higher, it is also likely that overall failure
rates have decreased since 2012, as creators have climbed the learning curve of how to create
successful projects, and backers have become more educated on which projects to support.
Combining all of these results, the overall failure rate for Kickstarter projects at the project
level is around 9%, and likely in a range between 5% and 14%.
I have a little bit of a hard time believing the author could even consider that the failure rate could be as low as 5%, given a pre-2012 likely definition of 12.3 - 13.9% failure rate... but again how they define failure (and what they do with those still "waiting", which aren't currently being considered failures) makes a huge difference.
Anyway, all really interesting and I am a huge fan of crowdfunding, but in my opinion the more visibility the better, along with a bit more accountability, particularly from the platform themselves! I think on thing Kickstarter should consider is refunding / donating their fee on failed projects... that would also provide incentive for them to do better vetting of projects. The largest
EU Kickstarter ever recently failed (Zano, which I only backed for a dollar to track its progress, thankfully!) and Kickstarter has done very little regarding it, and made a large amount of money while the vast majority of backers did not receive anything.
So, it's definitely something that needs looking at further, and I don't think the conclusion should simply be "10% is a reasonable rate", but "How can the platform improve to provide better visibility into projects while they are live, and what can Kickstarter themselves do to soften the blow of project failures". I think if people knew Kickstarter was donating their fee (even if it was not refunded to them) for a project that failed, it would go a long way towards reducing the anger at the platform for making money while backers are losing money. Right now, there is every incentive for really ambitious projects to fund, but almost no accountability to be sure they follow through.