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My current 2000pt tournament list for astra militarum is 18 drops, with a pair of vultures, a pair of leman russes, and a pair of devil dogs all squadded to get it to that number, otherwise 21 drops. I have no transports so no shenanigans to reduce drops there.

I'm wondering if I'm wasting my time and whether most tournament lists will be beating me on deployment either way. If so I'm better splitting the squads for more flexibility in deployment and more to deploy in reaction to my opponent. That said given a brigade is 18 drops minimum assuming no transport, I can see that it might sometimes be close. Any thoughts?

You're a horde army. You're not gonna have fewer drops than other, non-horde armies. About 10 drops is the average for an army that isn't particularly trying to go first.

Yep 10 is about average. Some mechanized lists like Eldar can get down to 5.

I gave up and went in the other direction as a guard player. I have 11 deep striking or out flanking drops before I even start my 23 regular drops. I'm never going 1st as guard anyways so I may as well have the advantage of deploying 2nd.

7-11 i'd say for non-hordes.