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Hello everyone,
Dont know if it has been discussed yet, but with the Brexit just around the corner, what will be the consequences, since most likely there will be no trade agreement before March?

Will GW double the prices, do I have to panic buy stuff I still want? GW usually takes these situations to increase their prices. Is there anyone here with economic knowledge who can explain it to me?

Since you appear to be from Germany, a no-deal Brexit would probably make GW products cheaper for you, as the Pound would almost certainly plummet against the Euro. On the other hand, a last-minute breakthrough in negotiations might push the Pound up, but probably also the Euro, leading to very little change in the exchange rate.

But this discussion is likely to be locked under the "no politics" rule, as it is pretty much impossible to discuss without going into the politics of it. For example, I was going to disagree with you about the likelyhood of a no-deal Brexit, but deleted that bit because I can't adequately explain that opinion without some political analysis.

Pound has been shafted ever since the referendum result was known.

GW haven’t jacked up their prices, but enjoyed better currency conversion sales, and higher sales overall.

I wouldn’t worry about it. Plus chances are there will be a second referendum, spesh since May ruled it out.

Most likely is that the GBP will tank further making the initial sale seem pretty cheap. It will take a bit longer to get delivered to you and may be subject to import duties. That may cancel out the price drop. Will any of that have an impact on retail stores in Germany? No idea.

In the longer term, GW will be paying more for materials, equipment etc, which will probably push prices up (though I'm not sure by how much because the plastic is probably the cheapest part of the process already).

If a large part of their customer base loses the ability to pay the prices because the well paying jobs are moving to the continent, then GW may either scale back or just put up prices to compensate (100,000 sales means they need to account for 1/100,000th of the design cost in each box, 1000 sales means they need to account for 1/1000th).

So should you panic buy or wait until March? Probably not - the relative price drop will probably be lower than the import fees. But it's hard to say - absolutely noone has any idea what's happening.

I disagree that the pound will tank further. I believe the uncertainty is currently more damaging to the currency than the actual outcome.

In the grand scheme of things though, I wouldn't worry, you're not likely to see more than +/- 10% and with the current currency conversion already protecting GW to some degree I doubt it will change at all.

The customs code for plastic models seems to be 9503 00 30: Electric trains, including tracks, signals and other accessories therefor; reduced-size (scale) model assembly kits and the EU has 0% tariff of those.

So even in the event of a no-deal exist there won't be any tariffs.

GW will likely keep prices in the continent as they even if the pound tanks, because they can get away with it.

I can't see GW prices dropping for any reason, that's for sure.

Nor can I see the pound falling any further without another similar drop in the Euro and perhaps dollar as well. So the relative change will be minor.

Well, I guess we will see tariff unless both sides come to a solution very soon. But they had almost two years for negotiation and the British are still not clear about their exit plan (deal or no deal).

Personally I feel that there are too many people involved with Brexit who have a vested interest in keeping it in an unknown state for as long as possible and likely riding the wave of investment during "uncertain times". From those who are simply using it to help drive down some values so that they can hoover up cheaper investment (with a view to it eventually bouncing back and recovering); to those who lost the stay vote and want to campaign longer to get another vote or just to rock the boat; to those wanting to "punish" the UK for rocking the boat and not making it look easy and smooth so that others flee the EU etc...

Ergo some of the current uncertain times I think is deliberate, but not for a single reason.

As for how it will affect - well anything - its all unknown. GW are big though, big enough they could ride this out I think; of course big can also sink fast too, but even if GW lost their entire overseas interests they've still a healthy UK market to fall back on (though they would likely have to downsize a lot).

As for how it will affect - well anything - its all unknown. GW are big though, big enough they could ride this out I think; of course big can also sink fast too, but even if GW lost their entire overseas interests they've still a healthy UK market to fall back on (though they would likely have to downsize a lot).

I guess ''overseas'' from the British point of view includes also the rest of Europe. This is different from the central European point of view.
Without a leave contract, I guess the prices of (not only) GW will raise for the rest of Europe.

There will be a trade deal, there is supposedly been one on the table all the time. Pressure from EU manufacturers will force the EU's hand and has already. German car manufacturers call us treasure Island they will not let our market go.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-donald-tusk-urges-uk-to-accept-offer-of-canada-brexit-deal-which-has-been-on-the-table-a3953731.html

Bring on 29th March 2019 it cannot come soon enough.

jouso wrote:


GW will likely keep prices in the continent as they even if the pound tanks, because they can get away with it.

Also us Brits will be too busy growing food and hunting rats like it's bloody WW2 again to be spending time playing with models, so GW will need to keep the costs up abroad to balance that out...

Seriqolm wrote:
There will be a trade deal, there is supposedly been one on the table all the time. Pressure from EU manufacturers will force the EU's hand and has already. German car manufacturers call us treasure Island they will not let our market go.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-donald-tusk-urges-uk-to-accept-offer-of-canada-brexit-deal-which-has-been-on-the-table-a3953731.html

Bring on 29th March 2019 it cannot come soon enough.

Brexit is likely to have more of an impact on the UK car industry rather than on the Europeans; BMW are already closing the MINI factory over the Brexit period (making it more likely that the factory will close permanently, if they find that production can be easily moved into Europe) and Mercedes cancelled a planned manufacturing deal with Nissan's Sunderland plant. By contrast, EU-manufactured BMWs, Audis and Mercedes are luxury goods in the UK - the sort of person who buys one does so for the brand, not necessarily the price, so is probably more likely to keep on buying even if the price rises by 10%.

As for GW, how many EU citizens work in Nottingham? They've got quite a few designers and writers, haven't they? And since they're probably not on £50,000/year (the definition of "skilled", apparently), they might not be able to renew visas.

https://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/government-finds-the-one-single-thing-that-brexit-wont-fk-up-20180914177307

Daily Mash says all will be fine.

Politics lock incoming in 5.... 4....

 AndrewGPaul wrote:

Seriqolm wrote:
There will be a trade deal, there is supposedly been one on the table all the time. Pressure from EU manufacturers will force the EU's hand and has already. German car manufacturers call us treasure Island they will not let our market go.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/brexit-news-donald-tusk-urges-uk-to-accept-offer-of-canada-brexit-deal-which-has-been-on-the-table-a3953731.html

Bring on 29th March 2019 it cannot come soon enough.

Brexit is likely to have more of an impact on the UK car industry rather than on the Europeans; BMW are already closing the MINI factory over the Brexit period (making it more likely that the factory will close permanently, if they find that production can be easily moved into Europe) and Mercedes cancelled a planned manufacturing deal with Nissan's Sunderland plant. By contrast, EU-manufactured BMWs, Audis and Mercedes are luxury goods in the UK - the sort of person who buys one does so for the brand, not necessarily the price, so is probably more likely to keep on buying even if the price rises by 10%.

As for GW, how many EU citizens work in Nottingham? They've got quite a few designers and writers, haven't they? And since they're probably not on £50,000/year (the definition of "skilled", apparently), they might not be able to renew visas.

1 in 7 of all German cars are sold in the UK and 1 in 5 of all the cars they export are sold here, this is a very big earner for the German car industry. And the German car industry is not just BMW and Mercedes Benz and also not for the affluent anymore they make cars all the way down to Ford prices and people buy them for quality not badge thats a ridiculous premise in the 21st century. They will not want to give up that market to the Japanese who we trade with on WTO rules. There are lots of things we can do to make manufacturing here worth it and thats why BMW, Nissan, Honda will threaten with leaving to get those concessions but the cost of moving is not something they want to suffer.

Think of all the EU youth who work here that will have to go back to high youth unemployment in France, Spain, Italy etc.. those countries do not want that mass influx of people they have to look after, we've been the babysitters of Europe to long. I'm already seeing an uptick in British people working in cafe's, restaurants, shops, pubs etc.. the exodus has already started as people's Visa's run out. Though I do live and work in London so it might be different elsewhere.

Things will change when we leave but it will not have the effect many think it will companies are flexing their muscle's so they get concessions from the government.

The German car industry have made it clear they aren't going to rush in and rescue us.

I also agree that the drop in GBP will be fairly short lived once some clarity comes in. I too suspect the confusion is deliberate at this point. So you may find a sweet spot buying direct from the UK for a few weeks around March, but it'll all level out again. The best time might actually be just before Brexit happens, as the A50 agreement reached so far involves anything in transit being treated as pre-Brexit, so theoritcally you could place a huge UK order just before we leave when the GBP is likely at its weakest and have it in transit early enough to avoid any potential delays/tariffs.

It's quite the gamble for some toy soldiers though and would involve circumventing GW's regional restrictions

Heh. GW Belfast is going to get busy.

(Checks)

When the heck did they move out of Castle Court???

 AndrewGPaul wrote:
As for GW, how many EU citizens work in Nottingham? They've got quite a few designers and writers, haven't they? And since they're probably not on £50,000/year (the definition of "skilled", apparently), they might not be able to renew visas.

Didn't GW close all the local European HQs and move people to Nottingham to consolidate staff there a few years ago?

Mario wrote:

 AndrewGPaul wrote:
As for GW, how many EU citizens work in Nottingham? They've got quite a few designers and writers, haven't they? And since they're probably not on £50,000/year (the definition of "skilled", apparently), they might not be able to renew visas.

Didn't GW close all the local European HQs and move people to Nottingham to consolidate staff there a few years ago?

Yes, they did.
In particular the German and French headquarters have been closed.
I remember the times where there was a German GT in Düsseldorf every year.
Attendance has been a must-have.

It appears the basic assumption of the OP may be fundamentally flawed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848

 Azreal13 wrote:
It appears the basic assumption of the OP may be fundamentally flawed

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-45768848

Nah, because unless some kind of miracle occurs, no deal May comes back with that even remotely resembles reality is likely to command a majority in Parliament. If she tacks closer to the EU for a "soft" Brexit that involves staying in the customs union and the like(or doing so in everything but name), she might snaffle off some Labour MPs from Leave-voting areas, but not a huge number given the views of the party membership and the leadership's stated "red lines", almost certainly not enough to offset the rebellion from within her own party by the hardline Moggies. If she tacks toward a Canada-style free trade agreement most Labour MPs will struggle to justify backing it no matter how much they bleat about "the national interest" and a handful of remainer Tories will, at best, abstain and quite possibly vote against. Then you have the DUP from Northern Ireland, who're currently propping up May's government, and have vowed to bring the government down if any deal doesn't somehow both prevent any real change from happening at the Irish border, AND prevent a customs border between NI and the mainland, and there's been no hint of a suggestion from anybody how you could practically do both at the same time, it's either/or. Further, some are relying on the apathy towards the EU from the Corbynite faction in Labour and among much of the leadership to help May nod through a soft Brexit, but the problem there is they seem pretty apathetic about no-deal hard Brexit as well, and might see the opportunity to force an election and oust the Tories worth the "risk" of an outcome they wouldn't much mind anyway. That's even more likely when you consider that for Labour to allow May to be "the Prime Minister who delivered Brexit" risks locking the Tories into government for a generation, so if they can prevent that without presenting the appearance of being the bad guys...

In short, it doesn't really matter what Junker thinks or what Barnier & May come back with now, it's very unlikely whatever it is will be able to pass through Parliament, and at that stage whether or not we have a hard Brexit depends entirely on whether the EU are willing to continue to put up with the utter gakshow that is our domestic political situation for a while longer and grant an extension to the Article 50 process, and if they do that there are still no guarantees since either Labour, the DUP, or Tory backbench rebels could force a General Election and the result of that could be anything from rabid Trumpian "Britannia Rules the Waves" pro-Brexit hardliners led by some warbing buffoon like Boris Johnson, to a Labour government(with a reasonable probability of being another minority government) committed rhetorically by the party conference to at-minimum a Norway-style EFTA membership and possibly even a second referendum on whether to Brexit at all, but a leadership that's still fairly meh about the whole EU project.

Halp

This is all getting a bit political.