I doubt it'll make much difference. GW are global so i'm not sure how it'll effect overseas to be honest. European FLGS may be effected, but i also doubt it again, but i'm not an economist. Europe aren't gonna wash their hands of us if we leave as we buy more than we sell from you, if anything we have the upper hand. But the system is needlessly complicated...
Besides, the brexit takes 2 years to happen anyway. It's all an over reactment
It all depends on the trade deals that Britain can make with other countries. If we strike the same deal with Europe as we have now (which I can't see) then there would be no change.
If there is improved trade with the US etc then they might see a reduction in price as there may be tax wavers etc.
Greetings folks. Today I want to take a small break from talking about toy soldiers and talk about something real.
As most of you will know, in one week's time, the UK will be holding a referendum on whether or not we should stay as part of the European Union.
There's been a great deal of misinformation and scare-mongering from both sides of the debate, and a lot of people don't seem to have any idea about the facts, never mind what to do with the information.
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist without the EU. Really it's as simple as that!
Some of you will already know parts of this story, but I'll tell it again in full so you get the whole picture.
---
I began seriously considering Icarus as a business in 2014 - I had just moved back to North Wales from Cardiff and I was looking for work.
Unfortunately, the only job I could find at the time was as a team member in Argos. My contract was for 10 hours a week, and I worked on average around 16 hours. However, because of the shift structure, I still found myself working 4/5 days a week.
This continued for almost a year. I had moved back North, in with my parents, with the hope of saving enough money to do something more. But I ended up having far less money than I'd had in Cardiff. This lead to some pretty serious bouts of depression, and I can honestly tell you I was not in a good place, emotionally.
Almost a year later, I took a trip to Careers Wales to see a jobs advisor because my attempts at finding other work myself were unsuccessful. The woman I spoke to pointed my in the direction of Jobs Growth Wales, a scheme that is funded by the European Social Fund (as is Careers Wales itself).
Through JGW I was able to secure a full-time job as a marketing Manager for a food company.
It's because of this that I was able to put enough money aside to even consider starting Icarus Miniatures.
Once I eventually left that secure job to focus on Icarus full time, I attended a variety of workshops and courses, funded by the EU, that gave me a lot of the skills needed to run a business.
And then earlier this year, I was able to secure a business loan, through an EU based scheme, so that I could keep bringing awesome miniatures to your tabletop.
At every step of this process going from lifeless worker bee, to the owner of a company that creates happiness, the EU has been instrumental to making sure I succeed.
If it wasn't for the EU schemes I was lucky enough to make use of, you wouldn't be reading this today, Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist, and I have no idea what route my life would have taken. It's not an exaggeration to say that accessing those schemes and moving forward with them saved my life.
But being a part of the EU still helps Icarus Miniatures day-today.
As part of the single market, I can send high quality resin miniatures to gamers across Europe, and they don't have to worry about being slapped with customs charges.
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I certainly wouldn't pay almost twice as much to get my hands on a shiny new mini, and I don't expect the majority of European customers to do the same.
But the problem is 70% of Icarus' trade comes from overseas, with most of that coming from EU countries. I can't afford to lose out on nearly half of my overall customer-base. Icarus Miniatures likely wouldn't survive it. We're too young of a company to have the capital reserves to survive a drought like that while ramping up business elsewhere.
And I'm sure there are plenty of small uk-based mini companies that would be in the same situation as us.
So if you're not sure how to vote next Thursday, please, please vote to Remain so that we can keep bringing you miniature goodness!
And please share this around if you know someone that could benefit from an emotional reason not to leave!
Much love and happy gaming.
Anto
As above; GW itself probably won't be too badly affected (maybe a price hike in the EU, maybe the print material will have a price hike too as IIRC it's all printed in Poland), but the smaller companies will really hurt.
When we Brexit it'll almost have no effect. The pound exchange rate movement already dictates more of a price barrier to export than any potential 10% tax into the eu. (Which is itself unlikely to happen as we have a huge trade surplus inside the EU and doing a 10% tax would actually /make/ the UK money.. not GW. But it'd make the nation money and cost the eu 17 billion annually do it'd be unlikely to be invoked.
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
Most of the brexit changes would be beneficial to GW:
- massivley less red tape
- cheaper raw materials / cheaper machinary
- cheaper goods into USA and Australia*
It's incredibly unlikely GW would bring prices down for "us" but they'd do better, invest more in new content, and be more profitable which means more growth.
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
.....
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I'm sure he's worried about his business, and uncertainty seems to be the thrust of his concern.
He seems to be a 'mom & pop' business selling 35mm infantry for 7.50 pounds a pop, in presumably low numbers.
I reckon most of his sales would therefore fall under 'Negligible Value' consignments.
PN 1179 - Relief from Customs Duty and VAT on gift consignments and consignments of negligible value imported from outside the European Union (EU) wrote:3. Consignments of Negligible Value
Consignments not exceeding an intrinsic value of €150 may be imported without payment of Customs Duty. (Intrinsic value is the value of the goods alone, and does not include insurance and freight). Consignments not exceeding a total customs value of €22 may be imported without payment of VAT. (Customs value is the value of the goods plus insurance and freight (which includes postage costs (CIF value)). However, it should be noted in particular that there is no relief (from Customs Duty, VAT or Excise duty) under this negligible value provision for importations of tobacco, tobacco products, alcohol products, perfumes or toilet waters irrespective of their value.
His 'bundles' of three guys (£22.50) don't actually offer any discount. If he discontinued these, and continued with the pairs (£15) there would be no single item on his store that would incur VAT or Customs.
If he gets cheaper materials and cheaper goods into the US/Australia, he comes out a winner.
That's a sad story, and i myself suffered with long term unemployment and having to get money other ways with no helpful support from the government. However as Angel points out, being out isn't the "end all" of it.
Unfortunately the reasons to vote in or out probably won't come into play for the majority of us, yet those are the reasons we are voting one way or another. Carry on as you were everyone.
EldarArmy wrote: When we Brexit it'll almost have no effect. The pound exchange rate movement already dictates more of a price barrier to export than any potential 10% tax into the eu. (Which is itself unlikely to happen as we have a huge trade surplus inside the EU and doing a 10% tax would actually /make/ the UK money.. not GW. But it'd make the nation money and cost the eu 17 billion annually do it'd be unlikely to be invoked.
But economists reckon the pound will drop? It's nothing to do with any potential taxes, more the economy. The GBP dropping will make GW more affordable for most.
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
How do you figure that? Outside of the EU, any raw materials sourced from the EU are only going to get more expensive if trade deals change.
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
How do you figure that? Outside of the EU, any raw materials sourced from the EU are only going to get more expensive if trade deals change.
This is one of the subtleties of the pay wall. Lets say that cellophane use for packaging costs £200,000 a year for GW. I have no idea what it costs probably not that much but bear with me. This is because cellophane costs £125,000 from china but £200,000 from Italy. (including shipping etc) but the EU taxes the Chinese import at £100,000. So GW buys from Italy.
This extra cost is actually a cost to the consumer. You, the consumer, are paying the extra £75,000 the EU (effectively) puts on that keeps the Italian cellophane firm producing at it's expensive rate. What #brexit would mean is that you can get it from China for next to half price. GW saves £75,000 (which as I already said they'd doubtless keep and not pass on)
I don't actually know the materials costs for GW - I suspect it's a lot of packaging, a lot of bespoke injection machines they have to get made, and the repair and spare parts for those, they might fabricate their own machines for all I know.
But it is one of the myths that a EU "pay wall" on raw materials benefits industry - it benefits the "initial" industry that does well (say Steel) but everyone in theEU - like car makers etc etc - who makes (say) Steel things has to put their prices up which makes them harder to sell etc etc etc
I'd say no-one really knows how this will pan out until the Brexit actually happens on Thursday (if at all). Even then it'll take years to sort out all the bs that comes with it. At the moment, it's all speculation or fearmongering.
Right, so assuming the UK doesn't introduce any import tariffs (which they most likely will?) they'll be able to get the goods cheaper from a non-tariffed route? That makes sense, but there's no guarantee that things will actually improve if leaving the EU. Bear in mind that we'll have to make all sorts of concessions in order to keep the free trade to the EU anyway, so we might still get to pay any EU tariffs that apply. The EU holds all of the cards in this perspective, as we export a lot more to them as a percentage, than they export to us.
I don't actually know where GW gets its materials from. I know it gets some large resin stuff made in China, and it seems that White Dwarf is printed in Eastern Europe. Are the books Chinese too?
Well, it is up to the British. But if the pound tanks, which it probably will, I'm going to buy a bunch of stuff from small manufacturers. It might tank the Euro too, which is good news for those of us in the US eyeing neat european figures.
Herzlos wrote: Right, so assuming the UK doesn't introduce any import tariffs (which they most likely will?) they'll be able to get the goods cheaper from a non-tariffed route? That makes sense, but there's no guarantee that things will actually improve if leaving the EU. Bear in mind that we'll have to make all sorts of concessions in order to keep the free trade to the EU anyway, so we might still get to pay any EU tariffs that apply. The EU holds all of the cards in this perspective, as we export a lot more to them as a percentage, than they export to us.
I don't actually know where GW gets its materials from. I know it gets some large resin stuff made in China, and it seems that White Dwarf is printed in Eastern Europe. Are the books Chinese too?
In the event of a Brexit the UK will no longer be required to follow the EU rules - thus they can say that we'd need to apply a large tariff to china imports, but we'd be in are rights to tell them to get lost.
Now MAYBE we would agree to it as part of a free trade deal with the EU, but I seriously doubt any UK government would agree to such a deal if the UK does vote out - if they did then could expect to lose the next election as it's just be keeping us in the EU via the backdoor.
Now MAYBE we would agree to it as part of a free trade deal with the EU, but I seriously doubt any UK government would agree to such a deal if the UK does vote out - if they did then could expect to lose the next election as it's just be keeping us in the EU via the backdoor.
I suspect the UK government will do exactly what it's told in order to continue trading with the UK. Cameron has already shown himself to be completely incapable of negotiating with, well, anyone. As I said; we need open trade with the EU more than the EU needs open trade with the UK, and we've burnt any good will we have.
If Brexit happens, then I imagine any PLC companies that lose money over the next few years (for whatever reason), will be pointing the finger at Brexit, when the time comes to explain themselves to shareholders. GW has a history of regularly hiking prices, and externalising problems. Blaming whatever farcical reasons they think they can get away with. This is the company that raised prices after switching to a cheaper material. Whether Kevin Rountree will continue with that approach is yet to be seen, but I'm damn sure with Kirby at the helm we would have seen prices go up and the finger pointed at Brexit, while sales continued to slump, with the finger pointed at Brexit.
Greetings folks. Today I want to take a small break from talking about toy soldiers and talk about something real.
As most of you will know, in one week's time, the UK will be holding a referendum on whether or not we should stay as part of the European Union.
There's been a great deal of misinformation and scare-mongering from both sides of the debate, and a lot of people don't seem to have any idea about the facts, never mind what to do with the information.
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist without the EU. Really it's as simple as that!
Some of you will already know parts of this story, but I'll tell it again in full so you get the whole picture.
---
I began seriously considering Icarus as a business in 2014 - I had just moved back to North Wales from Cardiff and I was looking for work.
Unfortunately, the only job I could find at the time was as a team member in Argos. My contract was for 10 hours a week, and I worked on average around 16 hours. However, because of the shift structure, I still found myself working 4/5 days a week.
This continued for almost a year. I had moved back North, in with my parents, with the hope of saving enough money to do something more. But I ended up having far less money than I'd had in Cardiff. This lead to some pretty serious bouts of depression, and I can honestly tell you I was not in a good place, emotionally.
Almost a year later, I took a trip to Careers Wales to see a jobs advisor because my attempts at finding other work myself were unsuccessful. The woman I spoke to pointed my in the direction of Jobs Growth Wales, a scheme that is funded by the European Social Fund (as is Careers Wales itself).
Through JGW I was able to secure a full-time job as a marketing Manager for a food company.
It's because of this that I was able to put enough money aside to even consider starting Icarus Miniatures.
Once I eventually left that secure job to focus on Icarus full time, I attended a variety of workshops and courses, funded by the EU, that gave me a lot of the skills needed to run a business.
And then earlier this year, I was able to secure a business loan, through an EU based scheme, so that I could keep bringing awesome miniatures to your tabletop.
At every step of this process going from lifeless worker bee, to the owner of a company that creates happiness, the EU has been instrumental to making sure I succeed.
If it wasn't for the EU schemes I was lucky enough to make use of, you wouldn't be reading this today, Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist, and I have no idea what route my life would have taken. It's not an exaggeration to say that accessing those schemes and moving forward with them saved my life.
But being a part of the EU still helps Icarus Miniatures day-today.
As part of the single market, I can send high quality resin miniatures to gamers across Europe, and they don't have to worry about being slapped with customs charges.
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I certainly wouldn't pay almost twice as much to get my hands on a shiny new mini, and I don't expect the majority of European customers to do the same.
But the problem is 70% of Icarus' trade comes from overseas, with most of that coming from EU countries. I can't afford to lose out on nearly half of my overall customer-base. Icarus Miniatures likely wouldn't survive it. We're too young of a company to have the capital reserves to survive a drought like that while ramping up business elsewhere.
And I'm sure there are plenty of small uk-based mini companies that would be in the same situation as us.
So if you're not sure how to vote next Thursday, please, please vote to Remain so that we can keep bringing you miniature goodness!
And please share this around if you know someone that could benefit from an emotional reason not to leave!
Much love and happy gaming.
Anto
It is sad that most people don't even realise all the stuff the EU does for them on an everyday basis. I bet they will notice once it is gone though, at least that will be some vindication.
GW will be able to show even more artificially inflated profits because they'll still charge the old price or more in the Eurozone but get a lot more Pound per euro out of it.
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.
Besides, there's a two year period of negotiations, so we've no idea how it will pan out.
The EU is third biggest paper producer in the world.
Raw plastic pellets are so dirt cheap it won't make any difference where they are sourced.
We'll have the same red tape because we won't be able to ignore EU standards as they are our no.1 trading partner. Look at Norway for example of life outside the EU.
The main benefit to GW will be the fall in value of the GBP in foreign exchange. This will make GW kits cheaper outside the UK, giving them a boost in sales.
Kilkrazy wrote: The EU is third biggest paper producer in the world.
Raw plastic pellets are so dirt cheap it won't make any difference where they are sourced.
We'll have the same red tape because we won't be able to ignore EU standards as they are our no.1 trading partner. Look at Norway for example of life outside the EU.
The main benefit to GW will be the fall in value of the GBP in foreign exchange. This will make GW kits cheaper outside the UK, giving them a boost in sales.
Yep, pretty much. The whole tariff thing is a red herring as well; OK, GW won't have to pay extra for cellophane wrapping to protect Italian workers from Chinese imports...as long as we're not in EFTA(which requires you to obey pretty much all the same rules & regs as EU membership, but without any say in the lawmaking aspect), and if we're not in EFTA then the EU will be imposing tariffs on us, because they're not morons and they're not going to allow the UK to become essentially a front for getting cheap Chinese imports past EU regulations and tariffs. And anyone who thinks companies like GW are going to pass any and all such costs exclusively on to customers on the continent while belting out a resounding chorus of "Rule Britannia" and slashing prices in the UK is fantasizing.
shows most countries apply a 0% rate on board & table top games so can't see anything changing on this. Obviously as already mentioned the pound weakening in the event of Brexit makes exports cheaper if the exporter chooses to pass the savings on.
We'll know soon enough if this scenario will come to pass. Of course me being crazy enough to be a counting agent on the night at one of the last constituencies to declare (est 7.00 am) it may seem slightly longer for me!
shows most countries apply a 0% rate on board & table top games so can't see anything changing on this. Obviously as already mentioned the pound weakening in the event of Brexit makes exports cheaper if the exporter chooses to pass the savings on.
We'll know soon enough if this scenario will come to pass. Of course me being crazy enough to be a counting agent on the night at one of the last constituencies to declare (est 7.00 am) it may seem slightly longer for me!
The import duty for HS 9503.00.8500 (the classification I think GW models fall in under) is 4,7% in the EU for countries with MFN status. It's 0% now beacuse, yaknow, the UK is in the EU.
As for Brexit. Yeah, it's not good for GW. in the very short term, sure, they may catch a currency windfall (although they have £12,5m in liabilities and whatever's not in pounds will be a problem), but there is a world after Christmas too. And a domestic market that would go straight down the toilet as well.
Rule of the thumb; when you are an exporter, increasing trade barriers to your largest market is never a good thing.
Oh, and EU red tape? Please! Exporting to the EU is a delight compared to literally anywhere else.
If we leave the EU it will mean alot more paper work for me. About 1/3 of my business is in europe. If we leave I will have to put customs labels on all the packages going into europe/russia. Lame.
This will take more time. Its the same for all export businesses, so this will obviously add a direct cost to all shipping in europe.
Kilkrazy wrote: There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.
Unfortunately the average Middle Englander thinks their own internal advice is superior to the professionals in service. Literally every single bank, monetary foundation and stock broker has commented on Brexit lowering the value of Sterling and the British economy. But what do they know? Take back our shores! Britain for British folk! Immigrants! Turkey! Vote LEAVE and take CONTROL!
What a bag of spank; I sorely despise this folk who are voting out. It's going to wreck havoc in the British Isles, and not just economically. The people who are wanting to leave and cast the EU a sour eye will be the first to complain when certain rights and liberties are stripped away by successive Tory governments (because we sure as gak ain't seeing Labour in power for another decade) that were otherwise protected by the European Union.
Check your bile. There's plenty of reasons and motivations for voting either way. Voting Leave does not make one a Xenophobic fascist or a racist scumbag any more than voting Remain makes one an UK loathing Oikophobe or a loopy euro federalist.
Kilkrazy wrote: There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.
Unfortunately the average Middle Englander thinks their own internal advice is superior to the professionals in service. Literally every single bank, monetary foundation and stock broker has commented on Brexit lowering the value of Sterling and the British economy. But what do they know? Take back our shores! Britain for British folk! Immigrants! Turkey! Vote LEAVE and take CONTROL!
What a bag of spank; I sorely despise this folk who are voting out. It's going to wreck havoc in the British Isles, and not just economically. The people who are wanting to leave and cast the EU a sour eye will be the first to complain when certain rights and liberties are stripped away by successive Tory governments (because we sure as gak ain't seeing Labour in power for another decade) that were otherwise protected by the European Union.
I think it is in the English Spirit to raise your fingers and say "feth you" to Europe, but I think we need to realise that strategically it is better to do this from the inside, Alpha Legion style!
EldarArmy wrote: When we Brexit it'll almost have no effect. The pound exchange rate movement already dictates more of a price barrier to export than any potential 10% tax into the eu. (Which is itself unlikely to happen as we have a huge trade surplus inside the EU and doing a 10% tax would actually /make/ the UK money.. not GW. But it'd make the nation money and cost the eu 17 billion annually do it'd be unlikely to be invoked.
You have to remember GW is a manufacturer. Outside the EU the cost of raw materials will come crashing down. Becaue what is thought of a trading alliance, is actually a pay wall to bring things in. Things GW uses to manufacture with.
Most of the brexit changes would be beneficial to GW:
- massivley less red tape
- cheaper raw materials / cheaper machinary
- cheaper goods into USA and Australia*
It's incredibly unlikely GW would bring prices down for "us" but they'd do better, invest more in new content, and be more profitable which means more growth.
This last one is complex*
This is fantasy economics.
I too work in an export-based area, around 20-30 per cent of my income derives from Euro countries. Have you ever tried filling out an ITIN form to stop Americans taxing income at source? Can you imagine what it would be like doing that for every country? Such assertions as yours are simply flying in the face of reality.
Yes, the matter is complex, but overall there are hundred of economists and other institutions backing Remain, and two respected economists backing Brexit - and one of them, Patrick Minford, does do saying we will lose ALL Manufacturing industry. Read his Sun story.
GW would suffer from Brexit, like most major companies. The only possible upside is they might be able to indulge in unrestricted price-fixing (which is what JCB got fined a huge amount for).
Check your bile. There's plenty of reasons and motivations for voting either way. Voting Leave does not make one a Xenophobic fascist or a racist scumbag any more than voting Remain makes one an UK loathing Oikophobe or a loopy euro federalist.
You are, of course, true in that there are motivations for either way (I disagree with reason though). One cannot dismiss the incredibly toxic and divisive campaign that the Vote Leave group have run, and this extends backwards towards the Remain camp too. It's been a tremendously negative referendum for both camps, and one that has largely left the majority of the British population casting their vote on the most base of facts (LEAVE: Immigrants, Turkey, EU Control, £350m down the drain etc) without due consideration of wider implications.
Yeah, cause Osbourne effectively threatening to hold the country to ransom if we vote leave was unifying and a total panacea for all ills?
Something I've started doing in recent days is mentally substituting names and/or issues from either side into the other's arguments, most of the time they fit perfectly because nobody's debating the issues, they're just shouting about how the other side is wrong.
Doesn't help that, Boris aside - who's only entertaining if you don't take him too seriously, the personalities fronting both sides are a bunch of slimy little weasels who'd quite happily sell the whole country down the river if it fit their agenda.
I've gone from stay to leave and back again, and I'm still not convinced either way - the reality is most things are going to be a wash for the majority, there's prior for economists all arriving at a consensus that was fundamentally incorrect, the government has shown no desire to limit the immigration they DO control, so why should we expect any different, and the personnel we have who'll be doing the initial negotiations I wouldn't trust to negotiate the purchase of a sandwich, so I have little faith in EU reform should we remain or a favourable deal should we leave.
My head says stay, my heart says it is time for something different.
But is whole line of conversation is nothing to do with GW specifically, and I'm pretty sure there's a thread in OT for broader discussion.
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.
Aren't GW sales falling off a cliff in Australia over the last couple of years?
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.
Aren't GW sales falling off a cliff in Australia over the last couple of years?
And aren't prices out of whack there? Pretty sure I keep reading "your kidney" every time somebody comments australian prices
Check your bile. There's plenty of reasons and motivations for voting either way. Voting Leave does not make one a Xenophobic fascist or a racist scumbag any more than voting Remain makes one an UK loathing Oikophobe or a loopy euro federalist.
I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.
Do_I_Not_Like_That wrote: I look at Australia and think: there's a non-EU country, but they still manage to play GW games and wargame in general, and they survive.
Aren't GW sales falling off a cliff in Australia over the last couple of years?
And aren't prices out of whack there? Pretty sure I keep reading "your kidney" every time somebody comments australian prices
Generally about 50-100% higher (with some exceptions). For some items, it used to be possible to get stock direct from the UK retail at less than the Aus trade rates.
Exports and imports will be harder and that alone will make many small/medium business close.
Prices of transportation inside the UK is now ridiculously high and with the vote out its going to get even worse.
Today I went to Morrison's and was wondering how simple things like imported fruits that are already so bloody expensive will actually be a bargain after UK is out. Fruit is just an example how UK needs to heavy rely on importing in order to have things they do not produce.
So yeah overall is going to be nasty to the average guy because the bill is going to be heavy.
Simply putting GW and others companies will just transfer the higher shipping/tax/customs bill to you.
Kilkrazy wrote: I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.
That was the point I was trying to make as well as the fact that there'll have to be some sort reconciliation post-vote.
I have to say it's important to remember that the great majority of people voting for or against believe they are doing the best for the country.
Agreed. There's just been so much lies and disinformation I'm not sure anyone actually knows what's going on.
I have to say it's important to remember the great majority of people spreading lies and disinformation believe they are doing the best for their country club
Warhams-77 wrote: When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?
Should Leave prevail, it could be anytime. It will formally start when the British Government official invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. I think a withdrawal from the EU will take longer than 2 years.
Warhams-77 wrote: When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?
Should Leave prevail, it could be anytime. It will formally start when the British Government official invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. I think a withdrawal from the EU will take longer than 2 years.
In order to begin leaving the EU, the government first must prepare a bill. This must be voted through Parliament to become an Act of Parliament to enable the process.
There's not saying that actually will be possible, and it can't happen overnight.
Assuming it will got through, the nominal time to unwind from the Lisbon treaty and so on is two years. As no-one has done it before, we don't know how long it actually will take.
At the same time as carrying out the above processes, the government will have to organise legislation, negotiations and treaties to replace the various EU stuff that UK will be pulled out of. These would include for example, the Free Market and the European Arrest Warrant system.
I think all the above might not be able to be accomplished in the life of this parliament.
Warhams-77 wrote: When will the leave happen? I read the contracts make it two years after the referendum. Is that correct?
Should Leave prevail, it could be anytime. It will formally start when the British Government official invoke article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. I think a withdrawal from the EU will take longer than 2 years.
In order to begin leaving the EU, the government first must prepare a bill. This must be voted through Parliament to become an Act of Parliament to enable the process.
There's not saying that actually will be possible, and it can't happen overnight.
Assuming it will got through, the nominal time to unwind from the Lisbon treaty and so on is two years. As no-one has done it before, we don't know how long it actually will take.
At the same time as carrying out the above processes, the government will have to organise legislation, negotiations and treaties to replace the various EU stuff that UK will be pulled out of. These would include for example, the Free Market and the European Arrest Warrant system.
I think all the above might not be able to be accomplished in the life of this parliament.
Don't forget the whole "celtic complication" - us Wildlings will doubtless be getting uppity if the vote is Leave down south but not here, and the whole Irish situation is a potential catastrofeth in the making that nobody on either side seems to want to consider. Even without UK & EU bureaucracy or unfamiliar previously-unused treaty rules to deal with, the UK's own political situation means the two year target is probably very optimistic.
Kilkrazy wrote: There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.
Because they don't ever prefer the status quo?
But in answer to the OP I don't thing that there will be any noticeable change in the Gaming market beyond currency fluctuations.
The major component in miniature manufacture is labour and costs will drop in this regard if anything.
The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.
Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.
Kilkrazy wrote: There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.
I thought it was 90% of macro-economists thought it would lead to uncertainty and carries risk. I don't think macroeconomists can predict anything beyond "there may be uncertainty"
Kilkrazy wrote: There is a reason why 90% of business leaders and economists think leaving the EU is a bad idea.
Unfortunately the average Middle Englander thinks their own internal advice is superior to the professionals in service. Literally every single bank, monetary foundation and stock broker has commented on Brexit lowering the value of Sterling and the British economy. But what do they know? Take back our shores! Britain for British folk! Immigrants! Turkey! Vote LEAVE and take CONTROL!
What a bag of spank; I sorely despise this folk who are voting out. It's going to wreck havoc in the British Isles, and not just economically. The people who are wanting to leave and cast the EU a sour eye will be the first to complain when certain rights and liberties are stripped away by successive Tory governments (because we sure as gak ain't seeing Labour in power for another decade) that were otherwise protected by the European Union.
The reason the banks, large corporations and monetary foundations want us to remain is because it directly benefits them, they can take more money from the average working Brit when they get to make the rules.
You see the EU parliament is a complete farce, they have no power, the power is in the hands of the 28 non elected EU commissioners, who are completely above the law(mostly politicians who failed in their own country) and make the laws as they see fit, lobbyists from the big corporations pressure them into making rules that suit them. It's anti democratic and anti competitive, if you make 50 laws a pillow case has to conform to it makes it harder for smaller businesses to conform but much easier for larger corporations who have the money to invest in conforming to all the extra regulation.
The UK economy is majority service based and the bulk of our economy is dependant on internal UK trade, only 10% of our economy is dependant on the eurozone and this is shrinking as the eurozone stagnates/declines.
In 2014 there was a trade deficit of 61 billion GBP between the UK and EU member states(we just love our BMWs, Audi's, Mercs and VW's), the EU especially Germany is dependant on us, we prop up their economy and that of the economically failing countries too. They need us more than we need them. If they start taxing our imports, we start taxing theirs and in that situation due to the huge deficit we would be much better off, because they sell us £61,000,000,000 more than we sell to them.
The only risk of leaving is the uncertainty, once things stabilise Britain will be much better off, we can negotiate better trade deals with parts of the world that we cant under EU governance.
So please do some research before you make yourself look a bit silly, when you actually do the research there's really no argument for the remain vote, only rhetoric and fear-mongering.
As for GW, in the end GW like all UK businesses will thrive in years after a successful leave vote.
Brexit bad, period. Rather than paraphrase, here's some research notes from "The Street", a U.S.-based financial media company. Their market analysis is in-depth, no-nonsense and unbiased.
-----------
Let's start with the economic impact within Britain. Economists widely accept that leaving the EU is bad for the U.K.'s economic prospects over nearly all foreseeable time horizons. Britain's economy has already begun to slow in anticipation of the referendum, with business investment experiencing severe contractions as many put spending and hiring decisions on hold. The overarching concern is that a decision to leave would stoke this uncertainty, serving to undermine business and consumer confidence, thereby stunting economic growth.
Further into the future, the fear is that an exit would effectively eliminate Britain's positioning as a dominant trading partner. The country is considered a base for European operations and financial market interdependence, with more than 75% of all EU capital markets business conducted out of the U.K. Unwinding this interdependence would be a complex, lengthy and costly process. Britain would also lose its regulatory power: Without a seat at the table, it would not be able to influence future regulation. Cross-border economic activity would likely grind to a halt as the U.K. would lose its EU-wide passporting rights, which accounts for three-quarters of all cross-border EU activity. It appears that the perceived freedom from EU membership would be more than offset by the extreme limitations such a move would raise; if anything, we would expect a Brexit to lead the country down a far more inward, insular and isolated economic path.
It is easy to view the referendum as a domestic issue for the U.K. alone. This is narrow-minded in our view, however, as we believe a vote to leave would raise a number of important questions and uncertainties. The EU's single market enables firms to base many of their capital market activities and conduct much of their EU-wide business from the U.K. The country's expertise in capital markets means it plays a valuable role in shaping the future of the EU's capital markets union project (the initiative launched by the European Commission in 2014 to catalyze cross-border investment in the EU, increase funding and form a cohesive regulatory framework). In fact, European's growth prospects are highly contingent on the successful implementation of the initiative. If Britain left the EU, the project would likely run out of steam and sully the path toward the union's long-term prosperity.
Referendum aside, Europe as a continent stands at political, economic and financial crossroads. The EU is far from a perfect union, but one that gives the region the best chance to return to economic stability and growth over the long term. If the centerpiece of its economy were to pack up its bags and leave, the decision would unwind 25 years of integration while sparking incredible political turmoil, economic uncertainty and capital market disruption on both sides.
What does this mean for the United States? If the so- called Brexit did happen, the U.S. would emerge as the unilateral safe-haven investment. Although this may seem like a positive on the surface, the result would mean continued inflows into our currency and financial markets, sending already-low bond yields even lower and already-stretched equity valuations even higher. Even more, the inflows would cause the value of the U.S. dollar to appreciate at a time when our own economy is struggling to gain traction, create jobs and drive real growth (not growth created by monetary policy). We reflected on why a soft dollar benefits U.S. businesses in a recent note (click here to read).
If we have learned anything about our economy over the past year and a half, we know just how important global stability is to the long-term health of our own economic and financial market interests. Any added uncertainty is negative, no matter how you spin
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I hope this gives everybody some objective perspective. relative to this matter, that's bigger than toy soldiers.
Kilkrazy wrote: Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.
Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.
Once the die is cast investment restarts.
If the vote is to Remain, there will be a huge sigh of relief, the stock market and GBP will strengthen, and investment will carry on. Because everyone will know the situation.
if the vote is to Leave, it throws the country into another period of doubt and uncertainty, while the government works out what to do and gradually tries to do it, and everyone sees what the results are. This could last over two years.
notprop wrote: The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.
Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.
You think they will let UK to cherry pick whatever they wish from EU and ignore what they don't?-)
As if. Brexit fans are in for cool shower if they think EU will treat them lightly if they leave.
BigWaaagh wrote: Brexit bad, period. Rather than paraphrase, here's some research notes from "The Street", a U.S.-based financial media company. Their market analysis is in-depth, no-nonsense and unbiased.
-----------
Let's start with the economic impact within Britain. Economists widely accept that leaving the EU is bad for the U.K.'s economic prospects over nearly all foreseeable time horizons. Britain's economy has already begun to slow in anticipation of the referendum, with business investment experiencing severe contractions as many put spending and hiring decisions on hold. The overarching concern is that a decision to leave would stoke this uncertainty, serving to undermine business and consumer confidence, thereby stunting economic growth.
Further into the future, the fear is that an exit would effectively eliminate Britain's positioning as a dominant trading partner. The country is considered a base for European operations and financial market interdependence, with more than 75% of all EU capital markets business conducted out of the U.K. Unwinding this interdependence would be a complex, lengthy and costly process. Britain would also lose its regulatory power: Without a seat at the table, it would not be able to influence future regulation. Cross-border economic activity would likely grind to a halt as the U.K. would lose its EU-wide passporting rights, which accounts for three-quarters of all cross-border EU activity. It appears that the perceived freedom from EU membership would be more than offset by the extreme limitations such a move would raise; if anything, we would expect a Brexit to lead the country down a far more inward, insular and isolated economic path.
It is easy to view the referendum as a domestic issue for the U.K. alone. This is narrow-minded in our view, however, as we believe a vote to leave would raise a number of important questions and uncertainties. The EU's single market enables firms to base many of their capital market activities and conduct much of their EU-wide business from the U.K. The country's expertise in capital markets means it plays a valuable role in shaping the future of the EU's capital markets union project (the initiative launched by the European Commission in 2014 to catalyze cross-border investment in the EU, increase funding and form a cohesive regulatory framework). In fact, European's growth prospects are highly contingent on the successful implementation of the initiative. If Britain left the EU, the project would likely run out of steam and sully the path toward the union's long-term prosperity.
Referendum aside, Europe as a continent stands at political, economic and financial crossroads. The EU is far from a perfect union, but one that gives the region the best chance to return to economic stability and growth over the long term. If the centerpiece of its economy were to pack up its bags and leave, the decision would unwind 25 years of integration while sparking incredible political turmoil, economic uncertainty and capital market disruption on both sides.
What does this mean for the United States? If the so- called Brexit did happen, the U.S. would emerge as the unilateral safe-haven investment. Although this may seem like a positive on the surface, the result would mean continued inflows into our currency and financial markets, sending already-low bond yields even lower and already-stretched equity valuations even higher. Even more, the inflows would cause the value of the U.S. dollar to appreciate at a time when our own economy is struggling to gain traction, create jobs and drive real growth (not growth created by monetary policy). We reflected on why a soft dollar benefits U.S. businesses in a recent note (click here to read).
If we have learned anything about our economy over the past year and a half, we know just how important global stability is to the long-term health of our own economic and financial market interests. Any added uncertainty is negative, no matter how you spin
----------
I hope this gives everybody some objective perspective. relative to this matter, that's bigger than toy soldiers.
It's not even slightly objective and does not outline any of the critical points I made, which are fact and are why we should be voting to leave.
The US's interest lies in TTIP, which frankly is terrifying...
notprop wrote: The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.
Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.
You think they will let UK to cherry pick whatever they wish from EU and ignore what they don't?-)
As if. Brexit fans are in for cool shower if they think EU will treat them lightly if they leave.
Yes, because as I said, there is a trade deficit with the EU, £61,000,000,000, any tariffs imposed will have a negative effect on the EU, not the UK because of this.
If lets say a 20% tax was put on trade between the UK and the EU, that would make the UK £12.2 billion a year better off.
If we leave, trade with the EU will continue, business as usual.
Kilkrazy wrote: Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.
Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.
Once the die is cast investment restarts.
If the vote is to Remain, there will be a huge sigh of relief, the stock market and GBP will strengthen, and investment will carry on. Because everyone will know the situation.
if the vote is to Leave, it throws the country into another period of doubt and uncertainty, while the government works out what to do and gradually tries to do it, and everyone sees what the results are. This could last over two years.
Sigh of relief lol from who. All the talk is scaremongering. No one has a clue. Frankly quicker uk is out the better. Both in and out politicians are full of crap but the eu is a disease. The UK gets crapped all over. It might be worse being out but its a risk worth taking.
If we weren't in the eu and had to vote to join or stay as we are, it would be stay as we are.
Kilkrazy wrote: Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.
Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.
Once the die is cast investment restarts.
If the vote is to Remain, there will be a huge sigh of relief, the stock market and GBP will strengthen, and investment will carry on. Because everyone will know the situation.
if the vote is to Leave, it throws the country into another period of doubt and uncertainty, while the government works out what to do and gradually tries to do it, and everyone sees what the results are. This could last over two years.
The Money won't sit still for long. I know a few investors that have capitised nearly 40% of their funds to free up money for a definite decision. If the status quo remains then they have lost some opportunity. If there is a Brezit they will be throwing money all over the shop to take advantage of the current low.
tneva82 wrote:
notprop wrote: The tariff issue is a non-starter to me. I don't see anyone being petty enough to impose taxes as this will meet with the same response. BMW sells 230k cars last year in the UK; I don't see Frau Merkel putting the kibosh on that or visa versa. Our money talks as well as anyone else's.
Brexit is not a vote out of Europe but rather the EU. Trade will continue as it has always done.
You think they will let UK to cherry pick whatever they wish from EU and ignore what they don't?-)
As if. Brexit fans are in for cool shower if they think EU will treat them lightly if they leave.
Then it will be a shower of our choosing rather the shower of gak that is the EU.
I'm sure you imagine that such tacit threat is in some way motivating to the EUs agenda but the idea of remaining in Union with an organisation that would cut off it's proverbial nose to spite it's face only speaks of the need to leave. I expect a far more pragmatic approach in the event of a vote to leave. Petty squabbles really aren't in the interest of anyone.
Kilkrazy wrote: Uncertainty and risk causes economic problems such as lack of investment.
Which will no longer be the case the second the vote is announced.
Once the die is cast investment restarts.
The uncertainly will only begin if there's a Leave vote; because at that point no-one will have any idea what's happening. All big UK companies will need to stop making any decisions until they can figure out what to do, and that will be based on information that may take years to produce.
I mean, what do we know about what happens with Leave, beyond us taking back control? What trade restrictions/deals will we have? Will there be any new barriers to investment? Will there be any changes to employment law?
if the vote is to Leave, it throws the country into another period of doubt and uncertainty, while the government works out what to do and gradually tries to do it, and everyone sees what the results are. This could last over two years.
There's no way it'll only take 2 years to figure out what's going to happen.
The Money won't sit still for long. I know a few investors that have capitised nearly 40% of their funds to free up money for a definite decision. If the status quo remains then they have lost some opportunity. If there is a Brezit they will be throwing money all over the shop to take advantage of the current low.
Are they going to be investing in stuff they thinik will be better in a post-exit Britain, or just taking advantage of the post-exit stock prices plummeting? As in, are they expecting there investments to grow because they are doing well, or just because they are bouncing back to their real value after a period of uncertainty?
Well, I'm not so much concerned with the Brexit in general. The thread asks for price hikes in case of a Brexit. Will we see the GW products (and others from GB) to get a price hike of say 10% or so?
wuestenfux wrote: Well, I'm not so much concerned with the Brexit in general. The thread asks for price hikes in case of a Brexit. Will we see the GW products (and others from GB) to get a price hike of say 10% or so?
From very expensive to very expensive? GW of a few years ago would have def took the chance for a price adjustment, but not sure nowadays.
wuestenfux wrote: Well, I'm not so much concerned with the Brexit in general. The thread asks for price hikes in case of a Brexit. Will we see the GW products (and others from GB) to get a price hike of say 10% or so?
From very expensive to very expensive? GW of a few years ago would have def took the chance for a price adjustment, but not sure nowadays.
In case of Brexit GW would have another reason for price increase.
wuestenfux wrote: Well, I'm not so much concerned with the Brexit in general. The thread asks for price hikes in case of a Brexit. Will we see the GW products (and others from GB) to get a price hike of say 10% or so?
From very expensive to very expensive? GW of a few years ago would have def took the chance for a price adjustment, but not sure nowadays.
In case of Brexit GW would have another reason for price increase.
Under the old regime. Be interesting to see if the new one follows the established pattern.
Kilkrazy wrote: There already is a single plastic character over £20.
It's the AdMech Tech Priest Dominus -- £22.
To be fair, the Dominus is essentially an MC in size, it's on a 50mm base. That's not to say £22 is reasonable in absolute terms, but I expect Fenrir was referring to the £18 standard character price being raised, which tend to be 25/32mm based standard infantry sized.
Kilkrazy wrote: There already is a single plastic character over £20.
It's the AdMech Tech Priest Dominus -- £22.
Good god, just released that the plastic, yes plastic, model is more expensive than the Forgeworld resin model
Not by much, really. A quid's difference is hardly something to get your knickers in a twist about.
I don't think knickers were being twisted over the idea that they should be the same price but the plastic one was a quid more, rather that the plastic one should be several quid less yet somehow managed to be a quid more.
Kilkrazy wrote: There already is a single plastic character over £20.
It's the AdMech Tech Priest Dominus -- £22.
Good god, just released that the plastic, yes plastic, model is more expensive than the Forgeworld resin model
Not by much, really. A quid's difference is hardly something to get your knickers in a twist about.
I don't think knickers were being twisted over the idea that they should be the same price but the plastic one was a quid more, rather that the plastic one should be several quid less yet somehow managed to be a quid more.
i don't know why plastic should be cheaper than resin by default (yes, i understand economies of scale)...
i think it is one of those things that should be taken on a case by case basis...
one Squid more, for a way better model, is fine with me...
the FW Magos didn't make me reach for my money, but plastic GW Dominus did...
working with FW resin is not nearly as enjoyable as working with GW plastic...
the amount of prep work that FW casts require, means that, given the option, i will go for plastic every time...
some FW models are better options, like the Kakophani vs. the Finecast Noise Marine upgrade kit, and are easy choices to make...
some sets, like Tartaros Termies, are FW only, so not issue there...
with the option to buy plastic MKIV or FW resin MKIV now, i would not buy the resin ones, even if they were slightly cheaper...
the plastic casts are just that much better quality...
the GW Dominus comes with two options for each gun, two head options, is bigger than the FW Magos, and is flawlessly cast...
it is also a much cooler looking model, to me...
the way that GW is cutting the plastic kits creates lovely negative space, and is a huge improvement over the old metals in terms of how thin components like loinclothes can be...
the cuts also allow for much more dynamic poses in the casts...
in my opinion, plastic now allows GW to produce way better models than metal or resin ever did...
there is also the question of durability...
resin can snap in a stiff breeze, while plastic can bounce off of the floor unharmed...
there is also zero miscasts in any of the plastic kits i've purchased...
i can't say the same for resin and metal...
taking those things into consideration, i am happy to pay a Squid extra for great plastic sculpts...
besides, the new Ironjaws Megaboss is £24...
i think we have a new benchmark to gripe about
to bring it back to the topic, i hope that a potential Brexit (am i the only one who thinks that sounds like a really bland breakfast cereal???) would not cause price increases...
the Start Collecting boxes have made a lot of people happy, and is a trend that should definitely continue if GW wants to increase sales...
everybody loves a deal
If you're abroad, seriously buy from Forgeworld now.
As for me, I think I'm 70:30 on selling all my collection now. Bit extreme, but I've been thinking a lot about this in regards to the ruleset and not knowing what's going to happen economy wise means I may need to hold on to as much cash as possible.
So now that the pound has dived there is the difficult choice of either to buy now, only to watch the pound fall further; or to hold off only to watch the the currency rebound.
Frozocrone wrote: If you're abroad, seriously buy from Forgeworld now.
As for me, I think I'm 70:30 on selling all my collection now. Bit extreme, but I've been thinking a lot about this in regards to the ruleset and not knowing what's going to happen economy wise means I may need to hold on to as much cash as possible.
Living in the UK as a citizen I imagine my miniatures just about got more expensive to buy. This is going to be interesting.
motski wrote: So now that the pound has dived there is the difficult choice of either to buy now, only to watch the pound fall further; or to hold off only to watch the the currency rebound.
There's two years until they are out of the EU, but there are other considerations. Scots are mad as hell that they voted to stay in GB, but their 62% remain for the EU was overruled - they will probably call another referendum.
The whole region is weak, I'd be short GBP and EUR now
MIni MIehm wrote: My friends, regardless of anything else, the pound is crashing.
For the love of God, buy Forgeworld.
How much can you save out of curiosity?
I'd also say that anybody who plans on taking advantage of this advice should do so quickly as the pound and other worldwide currencies will stabilise. The pound dropping after Brexit was expected, the Brexit itself was uncertain though. I was surprised when I woke up this morning, happily so as I voted out.
Well, the Brits have chosen the domestic variant. I think the pound will loose not only in a short term but in a long term against the Euro. If so, this will not be too bad for GW/FW customers.
MIni MIehm wrote: My friends, regardless of anything else, the pound is crashing.
For the love of God, buy Forgeworld.
How much can you save out of curiosity?
I'd also say that anybody who plans on taking advantage of this advice should do so quickly as the pound and other worldwide currencies will stabilise. The pound dropping after Brexit was expected, the Brexit itself was uncertain though. I was surprised when I woke up this morning, happily so as I voted out.
The GBP was down from about from USD1.50 to USD1.30 first thing this morning. It's recovered to about USD1.36 this afternoon. So your looking at a circa 20% saving over yesterday if you're in the US assuming the banks/credit card companies are passing on the same level of reduction.
Kid_Kyoto wrote: A lot of the UK mini companies ahve been on facebook promoting this unexpected 'sale price' for US buyers.
I think I'll be hitting up Ramshackle and maybe Hasslefree for some long overdue orders this week
Not so funny if you live in the UK and want to buy outside.
The exchange rate drop is big when you look at it over the course of 1 week, but when you expand your horizon to the past 6 months it isn't a hell of a lot worse than it has been. The average over the past 6 months compared to the USD looks to be about 1.42, it's currently trading at 1.36, so it's currently only down 4.2% compared to that.
It just looks worse because the GBP had been recovering for the past few weeks, and with brexit it lost the ground it had been gaining.
If you're a UK business who relies on buying stuff from overseas, the much more gradual fall over the past 2 years has probably kicked you in the balls more than brexit has.
It's all just reactionary fear at this point, we'll have to see how things pan out over the next few months and years.
Macroeconomics is one of those fields where it can always tell you apparently why something happened, but is pretty bad at predicting the future.
MIni MIehm wrote: My friends, regardless of anything else, the pound is crashing.
For the love of God, buy Forgeworld.
How much can you save out of curiosity? I'd also say that anybody who plans on taking advantage of this advice should do so quickly as the pound and other worldwide currencies will stabilise. The pound dropping after Brexit was expected, the Brexit itself was uncertain though. I was surprised when I woke up this morning, happily so as I voted out.
The GBP was down from about from USD1.50 to USD1.30 first thing this morning. It's recovered to about USD1.36 this afternoon. So your looking at a circa 20% saving over yesterday if you're in the US assuming the banks/credit card companies are passing on the same level of reduction.
I think you need to check your maths on that one.
1.3 from 1.5 is a 13% saving, not a 20% saving. 1.36 compared to 1.5 is a 9.3% saving. And if you look at it over the last few months rather than the last day, it's even less again.
If you buy lots of FW or UK products, you can thank the past 2 years worth of gradual GBP decline for the cheap prices more than anything.
Greetings folks. Today I want to take a small break from talking about toy soldiers and talk about something real.
As most of you will know, in one week's time, the UK will be holding a referendum on whether or not we should stay as part of the European Union.
There's been a great deal of misinformation and scare-mongering from both sides of the debate, and a lot of people don't seem to have any idea about the facts, never mind what to do with the information.
Today I want to try and convince you why you should VOTE REMAIN. Instead of bombarding you with facts and figures (which I can do if you want something specific), I'm going to give you an emotional reason of personal experience.
Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist without the EU. Really it's as simple as that!
Some of you will already know parts of this story, but I'll tell it again in full so you get the whole picture.
---
I began seriously considering Icarus as a business in 2014 - I had just moved back to North Wales from Cardiff and I was looking for work.
Unfortunately, the only job I could find at the time was as a team member in Argos. My contract was for 10 hours a week, and I worked on average around 16 hours. However, because of the shift structure, I still found myself working 4/5 days a week.
This continued for almost a year. I had moved back North, in with my parents, with the hope of saving enough money to do something more. But I ended up having far less money than I'd had in Cardiff. This lead to some pretty serious bouts of depression, and I can honestly tell you I was not in a good place, emotionally.
Almost a year later, I took a trip to Careers Wales to see a jobs advisor because my attempts at finding other work myself were unsuccessful. The woman I spoke to pointed my in the direction of Jobs Growth Wales, a scheme that is funded by the European Social Fund (as is Careers Wales itself).
Through JGW I was able to secure a full-time job as a marketing Manager for a food company.
It's because of this that I was able to put enough money aside to even consider starting Icarus Miniatures.
Once I eventually left that secure job to focus on Icarus full time, I attended a variety of workshops and courses, funded by the EU, that gave me a lot of the skills needed to run a business.
And then earlier this year, I was able to secure a business loan, through an EU based scheme, so that I could keep bringing awesome miniatures to your tabletop.
At every step of this process going from lifeless worker bee, to the owner of a company that creates happiness, the EU has been instrumental to making sure I succeed.
If it wasn't for the EU schemes I was lucky enough to make use of, you wouldn't be reading this today, Icarus Miniatures wouldn't exist, and I have no idea what route my life would have taken. It's not an exaggeration to say that accessing those schemes and moving forward with them saved my life.
But being a part of the EU still helps Icarus Miniatures day-today.
As part of the single market, I can send high quality resin miniatures to gamers across Europe, and they don't have to worry about being slapped with customs charges.
If the UK leaves the EU, all of that might change. If our position in the common market changes and those customs charges being to come in, it will cost EU customers extra to buy an Icarus Miniature. At the moment most of our sales are only a few models at a time, but the value would still mean they could have up to 15 euros customs charges placed on them.
I certainly wouldn't pay almost twice as much to get my hands on a shiny new mini, and I don't expect the majority of European customers to do the same.
But the problem is 70% of Icarus' trade comes from overseas, with most of that coming from EU countries. I can't afford to lose out on nearly half of my overall customer-base. Icarus Miniatures likely wouldn't survive it. We're too young of a company to have the capital reserves to survive a drought like that while ramping up business elsewhere.
And I'm sure there are plenty of small uk-based mini companies that would be in the same situation as us.
So if you're not sure how to vote next Thursday, please, please vote to Remain so that we can keep bringing you miniature goodness!
And please share this around if you know someone that could benefit from an emotional reason not to leave!
Much love and happy gaming.
Anto
Can't say I'll be buying from Pegasus any time in the near future (not that I even knew they existed)
Kid_Kyoto wrote: A lot of the UK mini companies ahve been on facebook promoting this unexpected 'sale price' for US buyers.
I think I'll be hitting up Ramshackle and maybe Hasslefree for some long overdue orders this week
Not so funny if you live in the UK and want to buy outside.
The exchange rate drop is big when you look at it over the course of 1 week, but when you expand your horizon to the past 6 months it isn't a hell of a lot worse than it has been. The average over the past 6 months compared to the USD looks to be about 1.42, it's currently trading at 1.36, so it's currently only down 4.2% compared to that.
It just looks worse because the GBP had been recovering for the past few weeks, and with brexit it lost the ground it had been gaining.
If you're a UK business who relies on buying stuff from overseas, the much more gradual fall over the past 2 years has probably kicked you in the balls more than brexit has.
It's all just reactionary fear at this point, we'll have to see how things pan out over the next few months and years.
Macroeconomics is one of those fields where it can always tell you apparently why something happened, but is pretty bad at predicting the future.
Its been going down more visible for a year now? for many reasons, one of the major ones being the Brexit uncertainty.
No one knows the future but something tells me if you put yourself in a weaker position someone stronger will have a jab at you. Depends on how prepared you are for that.
I have seen deep recession and austerity measures in my lifetime but UK on the last decades has not. I hope I'm wrong but with the weak politician clowns in the UK and apparent animosity from EU things seem to be headed that way. Also this country is now divided.
Recession can be good for some things but for the most part is just too painful for the medium working class and dramatic for vulnerable small business.
Miniatures business that rely heavy on shipping worldwide its not particularly bright either and outsourcing services overseas will be less appealing too.
My guess is that GW (not FW) already insured themselves from possible changes like these by simply making prices in Euros a bit higher than they would be in quid (directly converted to euros).
FW on the other hand...
Euro to GBP on 15.12.12 was like 1: 0.72. Now it's 1: 0.85. Oh happy days, oh joyful days. Until FW decides to do a nightly price increase again
